Could Texas Turn Blue in 2024?

Summary

This video explores Texas's political shift towards the Democrats, historically a conservative stronghold. With a shrinking Republican vote margin in recent elections, Texas is turning 'purple,' potentially impacting the Electoral College. The video delves into Texas's political history, demographic changes, and the implications for future elections, emphasizing the state's growing competitiveness and its 40 Electoral College votes.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ Texas, traditionally a conservative stronghold, has shown signs of turning 'purple', with voting margins narrowing in recent elections.
• 📊 The state's shift towards Democrats has been driven by demographic changes, including an influx of residents from liberal states and a growing population of young, urban professionals.
• 🏙️ Major cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio have seen significant population growth, which has contributed to the political shift.
• 📈 Texas's political transformation is exemplified by counties like Harris and Fort Bend, which have swung from Republican to Democratic majorities.
• 🔍 The 2028 Republican National Convention is set to be in Houston, reflecting the GOP's concern over Texas's potential political shift.
• 🤔 Despite recent trends, Texas is not expected to vote for Democrats in the 2024 presidential election, but the margin of victory will be closely watched.
• 🏆 The competitiveness of Texas could have significant implications for the Electoral College, with 40 votes at stake.
• 🔄 The state's political landscape is changing due to a combination of factors, including suburban shifts, population growth, and economic development.
• 📉 Republicans have managed to maintain their support in rural areas, which has helped them stay competitive despite the overall trend.
• 🌐 The video encourages viewers to consider the broader context of political shifts and to engage with resources like Brilliant.org to enhance their understanding of complex issues.

Q & A

Why is Texas often considered a key state in American politics?

Texas is often considered a key state in American politics due to its large population and significant number of Electoral College votes, which currently stands at 40. Historically, it has been a stronghold for the Republican party, but recent shifts in voting patterns have made it a state to watch in future elections.

What is the historical voting pattern of Texas in U.S. presidential elections?

Historically, Texas has been a conservative-leaning state, voting heavily for Republican candidates such as Ronald Reagan and both Bush presidents. However, in recent elections, the state has shown a trend towards a more competitive political landscape, with the margins of victory for Republican candidates narrowing.

How did Texas's political landscape change from the 19th century to the 20th century?

In the 19th and early 20th century, Texas voted consistently Democrat as the Democratic party represented the white ruling class and supported segregation. However, as Republicans took up the conservative mantle, Texas gradually shifted towards the Republican party, with a complete shift by the early 2000s.

What demographic changes are contributing to Texas's political shift towards the Democrats?

Texas's political shift towards the Democrats is being influenced by rapid population growth in major cities, with significant migration from both the southern border and other Democrat-leaning states like New York and California. Additionally, a strong state economy has attracted young people who generally lean Democrat.

How has the voting pattern in Texas's major cities changed in recent years?

In recent years, major cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio have seen a shift in voting patterns, with traditionally Republican suburbs experiencing an increase in Democratic support. This is evident in counties like Harris and Fort Bend, which have shown significant increases in Democratic votes and margins.

What impact could Texas turning 'purple' or 'blue' have on U.S. presidential elections?

If Texas were to turn 'purple' or 'blue,' it could drastically impact U.S. presidential elections due to its 40 Electoral College votes. It would essentially wipe out the Republicans' Electoral College advantage, potentially making it easier for Democratic candidates to win the presidency.

Why did Republicans choose Houston for the 2028 Republican National Convention?

Republicans chose Houston for the 2028 Republican National Convention as a strategic move to solidify their support in Texas, a state that has been shifting politically and could become competitive in future elections.

What was the margin of victory for Republican presidential candidates in Texas in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections?

In 2012, Mitt Romney won Texas by 15 points, in 2016, Donald Trump won by 9 points, and in 2020, Trump's margin was reduced to 5.5 points, indicating a trend towards a more competitive political landscape in Texas.

How did the voting patterns in Harris County change between 2012 and 2020?

Harris County, which covers Houston, voted narrowly for Obama in 2012, but by 2020, it voted for Biden by 13.3 points, reflecting a significant shift towards the Democrats.

What is the significance of the 2022 midterms for Texas's political future?

The 2022 midterms showed that Republicans were able to improve their margins in Texas, with a five-point swing away from the Democrats. This suggests that while Texas may not go blue in 2024, the trends indicate that it could become more competitive in the near future.

What does the future hold for Texas's political landscape according to the video?

According to the video, if demographic trends continue, Texas will become increasingly competitive in future elections, potentially becoming a 'purple' state. This could have significant ramifications for presidential elections due to its large number of Electoral College votes.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ Texas' Shifting Political Landscape

This paragraph discusses the evolving political climate in Texas, historically a conservative stronghold. It highlights the state's traditional Republican support, evidenced by its votes for figures like Ronald Reagan and the Bush family. However, recent elections show a narrowing margin of Republican victory, suggesting a 'purple' shift. The 2028 Republican National Convention's early scheduling in Houston reflects concern over this trend. The video will delve into Texas's political history, the reasons behind its Democratic shift, and the implications for future elections, including the potential impact on the Electoral College.

05:00

📊 Demographic and Political Changes in Texas

The second paragraph explores the demographic and political changes contributing to Texas's political transformation. It notes the state's historical conservatism, from its secession during the Civil War to its support for segregationist policies. The paragraph details how Texas transitioned from a Democratic to a Republican stronghold, losing all major state offices by 2002. However, recent trends show suburban professionals and a growing, diverse population, especially in major cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio, are increasingly voting Democratic. This shift, combined with internal migration from traditionally Democratic states and a strong state economy, suggests Texas could become a competitive state in future elections, significantly affecting the Electoral College landscape.

Keywords

💡Swing States

Swing states, also known as battleground states, are those that could go either way in an election. They are crucial for candidates as they can tip the balance of the election. In the video, states like Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania are mentioned as swing states, with a particular focus on how Texas, traditionally a conservative stronghold, might also become a swing state due to changing demographics and voting patterns.

💡Lone Star State

The 'Lone Star State' is a nickname for Texas, referring to its historical status as an independent republic before joining the United States. The video discusses Texas's political history and its shift from a reliably conservative state to one that might become more competitive in future elections.

💡Purple State

A 'purple state' is one where the political leanings of its voters are closely divided between Democrats and Republicans, making it a potential swing state. The video highlights Texas's transition from a 'red' (Republican) state to a 'purple' one, indicating a significant political shift that could impact future elections.

💡Electoral College

The Electoral College is the process by which the United States elects its president. It consists of electors who cast votes on behalf of their state. The video emphasizes the importance of Texas's 40 electoral votes and how a shift in its political leaning could dramatically affect the balance of power in presidential elections.

💡Demographic Trends

Demographic trends refer to changes in population characteristics such as age, race, and socioeconomic status. The video discusses how demographic shifts in Texas, including an influx of people from Democrat-leaning states and a growing young population, are contributing to the state's political transformation.

💡Political Pundits

Political pundits are experts who analyze and comment on political events and strategies. The video mentions that these pundits are focused on swing states, highlighting their influence in shaping public perception and the importance of these states in election outcomes.

💡Population Growth

Population growth is a key factor in the video's discussion of Texas's political shift. The state's major cities, like Dallas and Houston, are experiencing significant migration, which is altering the political landscape and potentially making the state more competitive for Democrats.

💡Internal Migration

Internal migration refers to the movement of people within a country. The video notes that Texas has seen a surge in internal migration from states like New York and California, which are traditionally Democrat-leaning, contributing to the state's changing political colors.

💡Rapid Population Growth

Rapid population growth, as mentioned in the video, is influencing the political dynamics in Texas. The influx of new residents, particularly in urban areas, is shifting the state's political balance and making it more competitive for Democratic candidates.

💡Voting Records

Voting records are historical data on how individuals or regions have voted in past elections. The video uses voting records from Texas counties to illustrate the state's political shift towards the Democrats, providing concrete evidence of the changing political landscape.

💡Political Shift

A political shift refers to a change in the political leanings of a group or region. The video discusses the political shift in Texas from a solidly Republican state to one that is becoming more competitive, with implications for future elections and the balance of power in the United States.

Highlights

Texas, historically a conservative stronghold, is becoming increasingly competitive in elections.

The state's voting patterns have shifted from heavily Republican to a more balanced mix.

Texas voted for Romney by 15 points in 2012, for Trump by 9 points in 2016, and only 5.5 points in 2020.

The trend suggests Texas could be within the margin of error in future elections.

Republicans are concerned about Texas turning purple, as evidenced by the 2028 RNC being held in Houston.

Texas has been consistently conservative since its formation in the mid-1800s.

The state's political shift is driven by demographic changes and migration to major cities.

Suburban professionals and young people are increasingly leaning Democrat.

Population growth in Texas cities is fueled by migration from Democrat-leaning states and a strong state economy.

Harris County, which covers Houston, has seen a significant shift towards the Democrats.

Fort Bend County flipped from Republican to Democrat, with a significant increase in voter turnout.

Dallas County's vote margin for Democrats increased dramatically from 2012 to 2020.

Austin's Travis County, a tech hub, saw all counties in the metro area vote Democratic by 2020.

In 2018, Beto O'Rourke nearly unseated incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate election.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton claimed that Texas would have gone blue in 2020 without his intervention.

Despite recent trends, Texas is unlikely to go blue in 2024, but the margin of victory will be telling.

If Texas becomes competitive, it could significantly impact the Electoral College dynamics for Republicans.

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Transcripts

this video was brought to you by

brilliant as we head into the final

Sprint of the 2024 campaign many pundits

and politicos are understandably focused

on the key swing States like Nevada

Arizona Wisconsin Michigan North

Carolina Georgia and especially

Pennsylvania which looks ever more

likely to be the state that actually

decides the election however even if

it's not a swing state per se one state

that's arguably flown under the

political radar is the Lone Star State

of Texas for most of recent history

Texas has been considered a flagship

state for American conservatism it voted

heavily for Ronald Reagan and both

bushes who hailed from the state and

even when Democrats Bill Clinton and

Barack Obama were elected in their

Landslide victories Texas still went

comfortably red slowly but surely

however Texas is turning purple it voted

for Romney in2 by 15 points but by 2016

it voted for Trump by nine and in 2020

it only voted for Trump by 5.5 points if

this trend continues it's likely that

Texas could be in the margin of error

range this time round however the

thought of Texas turning purple or even

blue and the DraStic impact this would

have on Electoral College calculations

has clearly terrified some Republicans

who have made Houston the site of the

2028 Republican National Convention four

years in advance so in this video we're

going to take a look at Texas's

political history why it's shifting

towards the Democrats and why even if

it's probably a long shot for the

Democrats this time round it's

definitely a state you'll want to look

at in the near

[Music]

future before we start if you haven't

already please consider subscribing and

ringing the bell to stay in the loop and

be notified when we release new videos

but let's start with some history ever

since modern Texas was formed in the mid

1800s it's always been conservative

leaning It joined the Confederacy during

the Civil War and was part of the Jim

Crow South with laws and local statutes

legalizing racial segregation in place

until the mid 1900s in the 19th and

early 20th century when the Democratic

party represented the white ruling class

and supported segregation Texas voted

consistently Democrat however as

Republicans took up the conservative

mantle Texas gradually went red in 1993

Democrats lost the second senate seat

having lost the first one after Lyndon B

Johnson resigned from his seat to become

vice president in 1961 in 1994 they also

lost the governorship by 1996 they'd

lost the Upper House of the Texas state

legislature and by 2002 they'd lost the

lower house too gifting the Republicans

a governmental Trifecta for the first

time since reconstruction however in

recent years it looks like Texas has

been slowly moving moving back towards

the Democrats since the election of

Donald Trump many of the coalitions that

have made up Texas politics have been

shifting in the suburbs White Collar

upper middle class professionals who

reliably voted Republicans for decades

are now shifting towards the Democrats

while Democrats continue to do well in

the city centers this trend has been

supercharged by a rapid population

growth in Texas major cities with Dallas

Houston Austin and San Antonio all

seeing record level of migration both

from the southern border as well as

internally from the United States much

of this internal migration has come from

Democrat leaning States like New York

and California and a strong State

economy has also attracted a lot of

young people who also generally lean

Democrat and we can even see this shift

in specific counties voting records for

instance Harris County which covers

Houston voted narrowly for Obama in 2012

after Obama only actually won by two

points during his 2008 landslide in 2016

though Harris County went for Clinton by

12.4 points and in 2020 Biden won it by

13.3 points similarly neighboring Fort

Ben County actually flipped from voting

6.8 points for Romney in 2012 to voting

for Biden by over 10 points in 2020 with

the total number of votes increasing

from 217,000 to 353,000 in that same

time period similarly Dallas County

voted for Obama in 2012 by 15.4 points

but went for Biden by over 30 points and

the neighboring Taran County flipped

from voting 15.7 points for Romney to

narrowly voting for Biden again in both

cases the raw number of votes for the

two parties candidates also increased

dramatically from 2012 to 2020 but the

most dramatic shift has come in Austin

the capital of Texas and a booming Tech

Hub in 2012 Travis County was the only

County in the Austin Metro area that

voted Democrats

but by 2020 Travis Hayes and Williamson

all voted Democratic while Republican

margins were squeezed in the neighboring

counties of bolop and Cadwell in the

aggregate this has made Texas

increasingly competitive in 2018 for

instance b o rock nearly oued incumbent

Ted Cruz at the senate election and

Trump only won the state by about five

points in 2020 in a surprisingly candid

comments Texas Attorney General Ken

Paxton actually claimed in an interview

that Texas would have gone blue in 2020

if it wasn't for his methods to block

mailin ballot applications now it's

worth saying that Republicans actually

improved their margins in the 2022

midterms with a five-point swing away

from the Democrats and incumbent Greg

Abott easily beat oo by 10 points for a

second term as Governor given recent

results and the fact that Harris isn't a

stunningly popular candidate Texas looks

unlikely to go Blue in 2024 most polling

currently gives Trump something like a

five-point lead over Harris in the load

Star State although this is all

pre-debate polling and the most recent

Emerson poll again pre-debate gave Trump

a three-point lead nonetheless if the

aformentioned trends continue and

Democrats are able to limit their losses

in rural areas Texas could plausibly

become competitive in the near future in

a similar fashion to Georgia and this

would have massive ramifications for

presidential elections that's because

Texas has 40 Electoral College votes and

if it went blue or even became

competitive this would essentially Wipe

Out the Republicans Electoral College

Advantage for context because of the way

Democrats votes are concentrated they

currently have to win the popular vote

by about three points in order to win

the electoral college now this is in

part because a significant number of

democrat votes are essentially wasted in

Texas but if Texas became purple that

would quickly change all in all even if

Texas looks unlikely to go Blue if

demographic Trends continue it will

become a real possibility in the real

future so this time round it's worth

paying attention not only to Trump's

margin of Victory assuming he does win

in Texas but also the accompanying

senate election between Colin ored and

incumbent Ted Cruz Cruz isn't the most

popular politician in the state and if

he loses it could bode well for

Democrats going forward with issues like

these it's often hard to come to the

right conclusions so if you want to

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