7-2 NFL Day Yesterday! Week 4 Monday Night Football Picks and Best Bets for September 30th, 2024!

Summary

In this video, Zach from 'Be the Odds' recaps his impressive 7-2 betting results from the previous day and shares his top NFL bets for the upcoming Monday Night Football games. He discusses his successful picks, including the Ravens, Chiefs, and Colts, while analyzing both wins and losses. Zach provides five new picks for the day, including the under for Tennessee vs. Miami, the over for Seattle vs. Detroit, and prop bets for players like Devon Achane and David Montgomery. He also promotes his members-only bets and services for more exclusive picks.

Takeaways

• 📅 The video was recorded on Monday, September 30th, 2024.
• 🎥 Zach is the host of the channel 'Be The Odds', focusing on NFL betting advice.
• 🏈 Zach recaps the previous day's results, which were very positive at 7-2.
• 💰 Members-only bets include the Ravens minus 2.5 and the Chiefs live money line, both of which won.
• 📉 The overall record for the year was 38-43, which Zach aims to improve.
• 📈 Zach expresses confidence in getting back to a 60% win rate, similar to last year's performance.
• 📅 Two Monday Night Football games are scheduled, which Zach appreciates for their pacing and the opportunity to watch both.
• 🔥 Zach predicts a strong comeback and aims to get back over 500 for the year.
• 🤑 Zach encourages viewers to subscribe and turn on notifications to stay updated with daily NFL, college football, MLB, NHL, and NBA videos.
• 🚨 The video offers seven picks for the day, with five being shared on YouTube and two members-only picks available on the website.

Q & A

What were the host's overall results for the previous day’s NFL bets?

The host's overall results for the previous day were 7-2, including a win on their biggest bet of the day, the Ravens -2.5.

Which bets did the host specifically highlight as successful from the previous day?

The host highlighted the Ravens -2.5, Chiefs live money line, and Colts +2.5 as successful bets from the previous day.

What was the reason for the host's loss on the Packers -2.5 bet?

The host cited three missed field goals and a five-point loss as the reason for the Packers -2.5 bet failing.

What is the host’s strategy for betting on the Tennessee vs. Miami game?

The host is betting on the under 37.5 for the Tennessee vs. Miami game, citing weak quarterback play and strong defenses as the main reasons.

Why does the host prefer the under for Tennessee vs. Miami despite public sentiment favoring the over?

The host is going against public sentiment because they believe both teams will rely heavily on the run game due to weak quarterback play and Tennessee’s strong defense.

What are the reasons behind the host’s choice of the over 46.5 for Seattle vs. Detroit?

The host believes the offensive firepower of both Seattle and Detroit will lead to a high-scoring game, especially given the fast turf in a climate-controlled dome.

Which player props did the host recommend for the Miami game, and why?

The host recommended Devon Achane over 84.5 rushing plus receiving yards, as they expect Miami to rely heavily on him due to the team's lack of healthy running backs and a strategy focused on quick passes.

What is the host’s rationale for betting on David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop?

The host is betting on David Montgomery over 64.5 rushing yards, citing Seattle’s struggles against the run and Detroit’s strong offensive line.

How does the host view Jackson Smith-Njigba’s role in the Seattle offense, and what is their related bet?

The host believes Jackson Smith-Njigba will be used in short passing situations and recommends betting on him to have over 4.5 catches.

What additional benefits do members of the host’s platform receive?

Members receive access to exclusive best bets, direct communication with the host for advice on games, and early access to picks before they are posted publicly.

Outlines

00:00

🏈 NFL Best Bets Recap and Predictions

Zach, the host of 'Be the Odds', welcomes viewers on Monday, September 30th, 2024, to discuss NFL Best Bets. He recaps the previous day's results, boasting a 7-2 record, including a win on the biggest bet of the day with the Ravens. Despite a holding call that cost them a win and a missed field goal that led to a loss by five points, the overall performance was positive. Zach expresses confidence in returning to a winning record for the year, aiming to surpass 50% win rate, and references last year's successful record. He discusses the appeal of having two Monday Night Football games and encourages viewers to subscribe and enable notifications for daily content. Zach then dives into the day's picks, starting with an under 37.5 bet on Tennessee vs. Miami, citing the poor quarterback performance and strong run game as reasons for his choice. He also predicts an over 46.2 in Seattle vs. Detroit, highlighting the offensive firepower and the advantage of playing indoors.

05:01

🚀 Detailed Prop Bets and Strategy

Zach continues with prop bet predictions, starting with a bet on Devon Achan for over 84.5 rush plus receiving yards, expecting a heavy reliance on the run game due to Miami's lack of healthy running backs and strong front four. He also predicts a successful game for David Montgomery with over 64.5 rush yards against the Seahawks, who he claims struggle to stop the run. Montgomery is expected to receive frequent carries, especially if the Lions are leading or slightly behind. Zach also suggests an over bet for four and a half catches for Jackson Smith, anticipating many short passes in the game plan. He mentions the possibility of adding more bets later in the day, which he will update on his Twitter and notify members about. He concludes by promoting the members-only Best Bets available on zdm bets.com, emphasizing the benefits of membership, including daily Best Bets and a direct line to Zach for personalized betting advice.

Keywords

💡Best Bets

Best Bets refer to the most confident betting picks made by the host, Zach. In the video, he mentions specific Best Bets like the Ravens -2.5 and Chiefs live money line, which were successful wagers. These bets are emphasized as high-value predictions, often reserved for 'members only' and seen as the most reliable picks.

💡Members Only

Members Only refers to exclusive content provided to paying subscribers of Zach's betting service. In the video, he highlights several 'members only' bets, such as the Falcons -2.5 and Packers -2.5, indicating that these picks are not shared publicly but are reserved for a special group of bettors who subscribe for insider access.

💡Live Money Line

Live Money Line is a type of bet placed during a live game, allowing bettors to wager on the outcome based on real-time events. In the video, Zach explains how he placed a live money line bet on the Chiefs after they went down 7-0, capitalizing on the odds shift to win the bet.

💡Over/Under

Over/Under refers to a betting option where a bettor predicts whether the total combined score of a game will be over or under a specified number. In the video, Zach discusses several over/under bets, like the under 37.5 for Tennessee and Miami and over 46.5 for Seattle and Detroit, analyzing team dynamics and expected performances.

💡Prop Bet

A Prop Bet (or proposition bet) is a wager placed on individual player performances or specific events within a game, rather than the game's final outcome. Zach mentions prop bets such as Devon Achane over 84.5 rushing plus receiving yards and David Montgomery over 64.5 rushing yards, predicting specific player statistics.

💡Underdog

An Underdog refers to a team or player expected to lose based on betting odds. While the term isn't directly mentioned, Zach's analysis of teams like the Colts, who almost blew their lead but managed to win, implies underdog status in certain contexts. Understanding the concept of the underdog is important for grasping his betting strategy.

💡Run Game

The Run Game is a football strategy where a team focuses on running the ball, rather than passing. Zach predicts that teams like Tennessee will heavily rely on the run game due to quarterback weaknesses. This concept is crucial in analyzing under bets and player prop bets like rushing yards.

💡Public Betting

Public Betting refers to the collective wagers made by casual bettors. Zach mentions going 'against the public' when betting on the under for the Tennessee and Miami game, suggesting that the majority of bettors were favoring the over. Understanding public betting trends helps explain his contrarian betting approach.

💡Unit

A Unit in betting is a standardized way of measuring the amount of money placed on a wager. Zach references two-unit plays as his largest bets, indicating that these wagers are more valuable or higher confidence compared to regular bets. It's a way for bettors to manage their bankroll.

💡Spread

The Spread is a point differential that aims to level the playing field between two teams. In the video, Zach mentions spreads like -2.5 for teams like the Ravens and Falcons, indicating the margin by which a team must win or lose for the bet to pay off. Spreads are a central concept in understanding the structure of most of his bets.

Highlights

Recap of previous day's results: 7-2 overall, including members-only bets like Ravens -2.5 and Chiefs live money line.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of betting against public consensus and goes with under 37.5 in Tennessee and Miami.

The over 46.5 bet on Seattle and Detroit is supported by strong offensive play on both sides, particularly in a dome setting.

Devon Achane over 84.5 rushing + receiving yards due to his versatility and speed in both run and pass games.

David Montgomery over 64.5 rushing yards, leveraging Seattle's weak run defense and Detroit’s strong offensive line.

Jackson Smith-Njigba over 4.5 receptions is identified as a value bet based on his role in the Seahawks’ short-passing game.

The speaker is confident in improving the overall yearly record to above .500 and targeting a 60% win rate.

Reflection on past success: Last year, the speaker achieved a 218-144 record, with 54-24 in Best Bets and over 73 units in profit.

Emphasis on using multiple TVs to watch two Monday Night Football games simultaneously without missing any action.

The speaker points out that Will Levis and Tyler Huntley are starting quarterbacks for the Tennessee-Miami game, which influences the under bet.

Devon Achane is expected to be a central figure in Miami's offense due to a lack of healthy running backs, making him a key player to watch.

Reference to last year’s high-scoring Seattle vs. Detroit game, which informs the over 46.5 pick.

David Montgomery is expected to be heavily featured, especially if the Lions are leading or facing light defensive boxes.

Tyler Lockett is described as a clutch player, while DK Metcalf is mainly a deep-threat receiver for the Seahawks.

Call to action for viewers to subscribe, hit the notification bell, and consider becoming members for exclusive betting insights.

Transcripts

Hello everybody welcome back to being

the odds it is Monday September 30th

2024 we are back with our NFL Best Bets

of the day if you're new to the channel

my name is Zach and welcome to be the

odds let's recap yesterday's results so

yesterday 7-2 baby you love to see it

members only best bet Ravens minus 2 and

a half two unit plays our biggest bet of

the day yesterday that was a win we had

a members only best bet Chiefs live

money line live money line um we bet it

when they went down 7 nothing um and it

was a money it was likeus 120 I know

some people got- 115 that was a winner

as well we the Falcons minus 2 and a

half as members only play atus 2 and a

half horrible holding call if that

holding call doesn't happen we win this

game easy uh and then members only

Packers minus 2 and a half I think it

was three Miss field goals and we lost

by um we lost by Five Points so that

would have been uh that would have all

that's all we needed um over over then

we had and then we for the free picks

yesterday for you guys went 5 and0 on

the free picks over 482 DC and Arizona

win Bears - 22 win Jags plus 6 win bucks

plus 1 and2 easy dub never a doubt and

then Colts plus 2 and a half they almost

blew it they almost did but they did not

and that all it really matters so 7-2

yesterday overall for the year 38 and 43

not where we want to be but I told yall

yesterday when if you guys watched the

video yesterday I told you I looked you

straight in the camera and said I love

the board and we guess what went s and

two yesterday you love to see it overall

uh but listen we're going to get back

over 500 this week I feel good about

that and then we're going to be going

back 60% which we were last year went

218 and 144 last year 54 and 24 on Best

Bets Plus on 73.14 units so we're going

to get back to form and we have a loaded

slate today two Monday Night Football

games I don't really understand like I

love the two Monday Night Football games

I love how they're spaced down I like

that you can switch back and forth

between games also you can have two TVs

going at the same time you don't have to

miss anything which what we do but you

know I I like the fact you have two

money football games and we've got seven

picks for you guys here today five of

which I'm going to give you guys here on

YouTube but if you're new to the channel

before I get to the picks if you're new

to the channel hit that subscribe button

like this video Hit notification Bell so

you never miss a pick WE Post these NFL

videos every single day along with

college football MLB NHL and NBA when

those are back on going after our first

15,000 subscribers so I'm excited to

have yall here let's go win together

today let's go make some money so let's

jump in the plays that we have today I'm

going to get start with our first play

which going to be the under 372 in

Tennessee and Miami okay I like this

play for a few reasons number one will

Levis and Tyler Huntley are the

quarterbacks and that is a problem

because they are trash and Tyler Huntley

was a pro bowler at one point but he's

he's not used to this offense he's not a

very good quarterback and they're going

to both these teams are going to rely

heavily on the Run game for Tennessee

it's just because they don't want Will

loves to throw the game away they've got

good receivers in dehop and Calvin

Ridley um and they've got Tyler boy

they've got a good you know Trio of

receivers they've got good running backs

as well I just really don't love I don't

like the over at this spot at all I love

the under um and my to me Tennessee's

defense is one of the best in the league

they're really really good um and while

Miami's defense is very serviceable SP

against quarterback who we don't really

know what the hell he's going to do I

really like the under 37 half Tennessee

and Miami here today and I'm rolling

with it plus every sucker and their

mother like every single one of them is

on the over today I'm going with the

under I'm going against the public give

me the under 372 Tennessee and

Miami next we with the over 462 in

Seattle and Detroit I just think this

game goes over I think both these

offenses are really really solid um

Seattle's defense um Seattle's got a

really good secondary so I think it's

going to be a run heavy game um and

Detroit's got a really good front I

think Detroit's got a really good front

four they've got good linebackers

they've got actually pretty good pretty

good um pretty good uh Dbacks as well

but the fact is is that I really like

the fact that they've got off I mean the

offensive Firepower on both these teams

is unbelievably High plus they playing

in a dome it's faster Turf and jarro

Go's unbelievable like when when it's

when it's climate controlled uh he's got

one of the best offensive lines the

entire league and's out weapons all over

the place while Gino if he just get

protection from Aiden Hudson who's just

a beast uh but if they can get

him protection he's got three receivers

that can do damage a great tight ended

Fant they got two very capable running

backs in Kenneth Walker and um Kenneth

Walker and Zack shanet and you look at

these two teams they're almost mirror

images of each other and last time these

two teams played I think I think I'm not

I think over 90 points were scored from

it was from last year if I remember

correctly so I like the over 462 Seattle

and Detroit it is a bit of a square play

everyone's on the over I'm going to roll

with it too here because I just think

it's going to go over very similar how I

thought about Washington Arizona

yesterday next we're going with the prop

Devon a Chan over 84 and a half Rush

plus receiving yards I just said a

minute ago with this under I think

they're going to rely heavily on the Run

game there's no healthy running backs

for uh Miami other than aain and in the

passing game they're going to have to do

a lot of quick passes they're going to

have because because Tennessee's front

four is really good I they're going to

use a lot of screens that's a that's a

Mike McDaniel special and on top of that

when you're looking at achain he's so

fast he's so quick they use him in so

many different ways I don't want there

to be a play where they run a Jet Sweep

and they toss it forward that doesn't

count as a rush and then aan goes for 25

yards on it because he's so fast

I really like aan over 84 and a half

Rush plus three yards they're going to

feature him heavily to try to take the

pressure off Tyler Huntley even they

have Tyreek and jadee on the outside

it's Devon a chain all day give me Devon

a chain over 84 and a half Rush plus

receiving yards next go daveid

Montgomery over 64 and a half rush yards

the one weakness that this Seattle

Seahawks team has on the um on on the

defensive side of things is they have a

very hard time stopping the run if you

watch them against um well Miami didn't

really put up much of a fight last week

but that's not really up to them they

have Tua but and Tua is not that good

but they didn't have Tua there was no

threat basically of running the ball of

passing the ball cuz schyler Thompson

was so bad but when you look at the page

patriots the patriots were able to run

down Seattle's throat and I mean right

down their throat um the Broncos

were able to run down their

throat I don't like I think that this is

a very obvious David Montgomery

situation because David Montgomery very

much fits the the javante Williams and

ra Andre Stevenson um mold I think

they're going to use jir Gibbs a lot

more in like the quick passing game like

the screen game I they're going to run

the ball with dve Montgomery over and

over and over again and if the lions are

up if they are up they're going to run

them a lot and if they're down by a

little bit they're still going to run a

lot because Seattle's DBS are very very

good so I think they're going to see a

lot of light boxes today and if and if

um if if U Montgomery gets 15 16 carries

he should get way over this number and

he's going to get that especially with

how good this offensive line is for the

Lions give me David mcgomery over 64 and

a half rush yards and then I'm going

with Jackson Smith and jiga over four

and a half catches this number is just

low they're going to use him the quick

passing game Tyler lock it's used in

clutch situations DK metf only can run

straight like he can't run routes for

it's literally just running

straight throwing the ball see if he can

make a play he's not a good catch guy

he's a great receiving yards guy if

you're going to bet over receiving yards

just bet on DK CU they're just going to

throw it deep to him non-stop but I

think JSM is going to get a lot of like

really short passes um there's going to

be a lot of opportunities for him to get

some run after the catch but I don't

think it's going to be a lot of deep

shots and it's a lot of it's going to be

a lot of 12 12 yard comeback routes six

yard hitches um you know drag routes

that go for like four yards I don't

think his yards prop as the play but the

over four and a half catches that is

definitely the play give me Jackson

Smith and jiga over four and a half

catches now just so you guys know I

might add in some more plays a little

bit later today if I do I'll post that

in the pin comment below uh so you can

just make sure you check that out

throughout the day I'll also post it on

my Twitter my Twitter is link

description below and members you know

you'll obviously have those texted to

you um in our group so you'll have that

and by the way guys we have two members

only Best Bets today both the sides for

uh for both of these games I love the

sides you can get those a me you get the

members only Best Bets zdm bets.com slpi

the website is linked in the comments

below as a member you get all members

only Best Bets every single day which

was profitable Best Bets on a day-to-day

basis on top of that you have a direct

line of me so any game you're

considering betting reach out to our

hotline number get a guaranteed response

back but any game you're considering

betting and get free B on YouTube S4

videos come out that would take

advantage of early lines early odds the

website zdm best.com zdm best.com zmb

best.com slpi so guys let's go lock in

those picks let's go win together today

let's go make some money I'll see you

all tomorrow