32-14 CFB RUN! Saturday College Football Week 5 Picks and Best Bets for September 28th, 2024!

Summary

In this video, host Zach recaps a winning day in college football betting, boasting a 32-4 run. He discusses yesterday's results, including a win on the Ruckers money line despite a poor performance by Washington's kicker. Zach previews today's games, offering six free picks and five members-only bets on zdmbets.com. He highlights Penn State vs. Illinois, Arizona vs. Utah, and Auburn vs. Oklahoma, emphasizing Penn State's strong defense and Auburn's must-win situation. Zach also mentions potential additional picks and invites viewers to subscribe for daily updates.

Takeaways

• 🏈 Zach recaps the previous day's results: 2-1 in college football bets, extending a streak to 32-4.
• 💰 Members-only best bet was under 44.5 in Washington vs. Rutgers, a win thanks to missed field goals.
• 📉 Missed a pick on under 54.5 for Texas Tech vs. Miami, partly due to unexpected weather.
• 🔥 Overall record for the year: 43-25, currently on a 32-14 run in college football bets.
• 🔢 Six public college football picks for Saturday and five additional members-only best bets are available for purchase.
• 📊 First pick: Penn State -16.5 vs. Illinois, based on Penn State's defense and the public's heavy backing of Illinois.
• 🎲 Second pick: Arizona +9.5 vs. Utah, capitalizing on public overconfidence in Utah after an emotional win.
• ⚔️ Third pick: Louisville +7.5 vs. Notre Dame, highlighting Notre Dame’s one-dimensional offense.
• 🔮 Fourth pick: Auburn money line vs. Oklahoma, a bet on Auburn's defense and Oklahoma's weak offense.
• 🏆 Zach is pushing for 15,000 subscribers, and there are no MLB picks until the playoffs due to unpredictability in the final games.

Q & A

What is the current win-loss record of the channel's college football bets?

The current win-loss record is 32 and 4, as mentioned in the script.

What was the result of the members-only best bet under 44.2 in the Washington Ruckers game?

The members-only best bet under 44.2 in the Washington Ruckers game was a win, thanks to Mr. Gross missing three very makeable field goals.

What was the record for the year before the current college football season?

Before the current college football season, the record was 43 and 25 for the year.

What is the total number of picks planned for the day mentioned in the script?

There are 11 picks planned for the day, with 6 being shared on YouTube and 5 as members-only Best Bets.

What is the price for the members-only Best Bets?

The price for the members-only Best Bets is $65 for five picks, which averages to about $13 per pick.

What was the reason given for the loss in the Tech vs Miami game?

The loss in the Tech vs Miami game was attributed to the weather conditions in Miami, which the speaker had misjudged.

What is the current subscriber count goal for the channel?

The current subscriber count goal for the channel is 15,000 subscribers.

What is the reason given for choosing Penn State in the game against Illinois?

Penn State is chosen for the game against Illinois because the line doesn't make sense, Illinois looked good against Nebraska but Penn State has a much stronger defense, and Penn State's running game is elite.

What is the strategy behind choosing Arizona to cover against Utah?

The strategy is to go against the public sentiment, which is heavily on Utah. Arizona's season is on the line, and there's uncertainty about the health of Utah's Cam Rising.

Why is there confidence in Auburn's money line against Oklahoma?

There is confidence in Auburn's money line because Oklahoma's offense, particularly with Jackson Ornell, doesn't look good, and this game is crucial for Auburn's coach, Hugh Freeze.

What is the reason for picking Nebraska minus 9.5 against Purdue?

Nebraska minus 9.5 against Purdue is picked because Purdue is considered a weak team with no enthusiasm, and Nebraska is better at every position and needs a convincing win for postseason chances.

What is the significance of the white out game for Penn State?

The white out game is significant for Penn State because they traditionally play very well during these games, which are held at night.

What is the strategy for betting on Minnesota plus 10.5 against Michigan?

The strategy is to capitalize on a letdown spot for Michigan after their big win against USC, while Minnesota's season is on the line, and sharp money is heavily on Minnesota.

Outlines

00:00

🎉 College Football Best Bets Overview and Recap

In this video, Zach introduces the 'Be the Odds' channel's college football picks for Saturday, September 28th, 2024. He starts by recapping the previous day's performance, highlighting a successful run of 32-4 in college football. Despite a tight game in the Washington vs. Rutgers matchup, Zach's predictions were largely accurate. He mentions a misjudgment in the weather for the Miami game but maintains an impressive overall record of 43-25 for the year. He emphasizes the importance of the upcoming games and offers six picks to YouTube viewers, while promoting five members-only picks available on his website.

05:01

🏈 Analyzing Key College Football Matchups

Zach dives into his top picks for the day, starting with Penn State vs. Illinois. He explains his decision to back Penn State despite a large spread, noting Illinois's overrated performance and the strength of Penn State's defense. He recalls a similar situation with Arkansas vs. Alabama to illustrate his point. He also picks Arizona against Utah, citing concerns about Utah's consistency and Arizona's need to win to remain competitive. Despite Utah's intimidating home atmosphere, Zach believes Arizona can cover the spread.

10:02

💪 Underdog Strategies and High-Profile Games

Zach continues with his picks, choosing Louisville against Notre Dame due to Notre Dame's limited offensive versatility. He then discusses his surprising choice of Auburn over Oklahoma, highlighting Auburn's strong defense and the significance of this game for Auburn's coach, Hugh Freeze. He also backs Nebraska against Purdue, dismissing Purdue as a weak team and predicting a strong comeback for Nebraska. Finally, he takes Minnesota plus the points against Michigan, expecting Michigan to experience a letdown after their big win over USC.

Keywords

💡Best Bets

Best Bets refer to the most confident or recommended wagers for a given day in sports betting. In the video, Zach shares his 'Best Bets' for college football games, emphasizing his expertise and track record in predicting successful outcomes. These are the top picks that he suggests for viewers looking to profit from betting.

💡Members Only

Members Only refers to exclusive betting picks available to individuals who subscribe or pay for a membership on Zach's website. In the video, Zach promotes the fact that five of his 'Best Bets' are available only to paying members, implying these are higher-value picks that can increase one's chances of winning.

💡Public Betting

Public Betting refers to the tendency of the general public to heavily bet on a particular team or outcome, often without in-depth analysis. Zach highlights situations where the public is 'heavy' on certain teams, such as Utah and Oklahoma, and suggests going against these public opinions because they can lead to overrated expectations.

💡Underdog

Underdog in sports betting refers to the team or player expected to lose the game, as reflected in the betting odds. In the video, Zach talks about betting on underdogs like Arizona and Louisville, highlighting their potential to cover the spread or win despite being less favored by bookmakers and the public.

💡Cover the Spread

Covering the Spread means that a team either wins or loses by a margin smaller than the point spread set by the bookmakers. For example, Zach mentions that he expects Arizona to 'cover' the +9.5 spread against Utah, meaning that even if Arizona loses, it should be by less than 9.5 points, which would still result in a winning bet.

💡Sharp Money

Sharp Money refers to bets made by professional or highly knowledgeable bettors. In contrast to public money, sharp money is often considered more insightful because it reflects informed decisions based on deeper analysis. Zach refers to sharp money being 'heavy' on teams like Minnesota, implying that more experienced bettors are backing them, which influences his picks.

💡Whiteout Game

A Whiteout Game is a special event in which fans are encouraged to wear white, creating a visually intimidating atmosphere for opposing teams. Zach mentions Penn State's whiteout game, highlighting how the team traditionally performs well during these games, which factors into his prediction that Penn State will dominate Illinois.

💡Emotional Win

An Emotional Win refers to a significant victory that can potentially drain a team’s energy or focus in subsequent games. Zach brings up Utah’s emotional win over Oklahoma State, suggesting that they might struggle to maintain the same intensity in their next game, which is why he is betting on Arizona to perform well against Utah.

💡Line Movement

Line Movement refers to changes in the betting odds or point spreads leading up to a game, often influenced by factors such as betting volume or news about player injuries. Zach mentions line movement, such as Auburn’s odds shifting from +2 to -1, indicating that the betting markets are favoring Auburn more heavily as the game approaches.

💡Key Numbers

Key Numbers in sports betting refer to point spreads that are common winning margins in football, such as 3 or 7 points. Zach discusses the importance of 'buying down' to avoid these key numbers, like lowering Penn State's spread to -16.5 instead of -17, increasing his chances of a winning bet if Penn State wins by exactly 17 points.

Highlights

Another winning day with a 2-1 record, continuing a 32-4 college football run.

Members-only best bet on the under 44.5 in Washington vs. Rutgers, which was successful.

Discussed Washington's unreliable kicker, contributing to the success of the under bet.

Upcoming slate includes 11 picks, with 6 shared on YouTube and 5 as members-only bets.

First pick: Penn State -16.5 vs. Illinois, noting Illinois' overrated performance and Penn State's strong defense.

Second pick: Arizona +9.5 vs. Utah, citing public heavy on Utah and uncertainty about Utah's QB Cam Rising.

Third pick: Louisville +7.5 vs. Notre Dame, highlighting Notre Dame's one-dimensional offense and Louisville's strong competition.

Fourth pick: Auburn money line vs. Oklahoma, emphasizing Auburn's home advantage and Oklahoma's weak offense.

Fifth pick: Nebraska -9.5 vs. Purdue, describing Purdue as a weak team and predicting a strong Nebraska performance.

Sixth pick: Minnesota +10.5 vs. Michigan, predicting a close game and noting Michigan's recent tough win against USC.

No MLB video today due to the unpredictability of the final regular season games.

Promoted the members-only best bets, mentioning 5 exclusive picks for $65.

Encouraged viewers to subscribe and turn on notifications for daily picks on various sports including NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA.

Auburn vs. Oklahoma pick based on a significant line movement and home field advantage.

Potential for additional picks to be posted later on Twitter or in the pinned comments.

Transcripts

Hello everybody welcome back to being

the odds it is Saturday September 28th

2024 we are back with our college

football Best Bets of the day if you're

new to the channel my name is Zach and

welcome to be the odds let's recap

yesterday results so yesterday another

winning day two- one uh we're on a 32

and4 college football run you'll love to

see it members only best bet under 442

washing Ruckers This Game shouldn't have

even been that that that under shouldn't

have been close but it was but thank you

gr gross Mr three very makeable field

goals you love thank you so much for

that definitely made the list though got

we got to remind ourselves we ever been

on Washington they have one of the worst

kickers in college football but dub you

love to see that Ruckers money line that

was a win under 54 and a half Tech in

Miami that was a loss a lot of you got

pissed cuz I got the weather wrong in

Miami don't really understand why that

was a big deal but is what it is overall

for the year 43 and 25 218 best bet

we're on a 40 like I said a 32 and 14 uh

college football run right now and we

have such a good slate stay in college

football just oh God it's Immaculate

beautiful and we have 11 picks total

today six of those I'm going to give you

guys here on YouTube really excited to

give you those especially since a lot of

those are the big games on the YouTube

today um we also have five membersonly

Best Bets you can get all our members

only Best Bets dedm bets.com slpi

website is linked in the comments below

by the way we have five picks for

members only so it's $65 five picks only

13 bucks a pick that ain't bad at all um

and by the way if you're new to the

channel hit that subscribe button like

this video notification Bell so you

never miss a pick WE Post these uh

college football videos every single day

along with the NFL MLB NHL and NBA we

are doing we are not doing MLB video

today because these last couple days I

mean these are just the last couple days

of regular season these games basically

matter to nobody so I'm not going to be

I'm not going to try to handicap games

that just have absolutely no like have

almost zero predictability uh we're

going to be back for the playoffs though

very excited for that uh but we're going

for 15,000 subscribers so I'm excited to

have youall here let's go win together

today let's go make some money so let's

just jump right in to the plays that we

have today I'm going to get started with

our first play which will be Penn State

minus 165 versus Illinois now at most

books this number

is-7 maybe - 17 and a half um but it's

mostly - 17 across the board I bought it

down to 16 and half cuz I wanted down

past a key number but the reason why I

like this game is first things first

this line makes no sense at all Illinois

is the number 19 team in the country

they honestly I watched them against

Nebraska they looked really good and

they're going to Penn State who the last

few games they just have not looked good

at all this game should be like a eight

point spread or so and it's 17 and when

the public is specifically all over an

underdog that that it's a sign they're

going to get stomped one game that I

remember very vividly was when Arkansas

was good a few years ago and they played

against Alabama they're 7 Half Point

dogs and everyone was on Arkansas and

then Al Alabama just I mean I think they

won by like 40 I think or 40 or 50

points I don't know if it's going to be

a 40 or 50 point game today but this is

the exact same formula here Penn State's

the better team um Illinois has not seen

a defense like Penn State this entire

year now listen Nebraska defense is

pretty good they are not Penn State's

defense Penn State's defense is 1

million times better um and also the

running the running game for Penn State

is Elite they've got two great running

backs the wide receivers look good and

honestly I want to see what Penn State

looks like in big games in Penn State

what they very very prone to do is play

down to bad teams they're not going to

have that issue today um and also like

with all the talking that Illinois

has been doing this entire this entire

week OB I think that's going to give him

a little bit more in the tank it's also

the white out game and Pen State always

plays very very well for that white out

game it's at night um and I just I I

just I think this number is just so

weird that I've got to go with Penn

State so G Penn state- 162 versus

Illinois next go with Arizona Plus 92s

versus Utah First off the public is

heavy on Utah today I mean heavy I'm

going to go against the public um and

the thing is there the Utah is coming

off an emotional win um against Oklahoma

State last week in Oklahoma State in

silwat it's a hell of a win by the way

Utah money line was one of our members

only Best Bets last week we hit that

easy easy but even so Arizona season's

on the line here they lose this game I

mean I don't know how they compete in

the Big 12 really like realistically and

we also just don't know the health of

Cam Rising at all we haven't known for

years like we just we genuinely have not

known the health of Cam Rising for a

very very long time he's if Zack

Wilson's brother is playing today and

starting today I really like Arizona to

be able to cover this game now I am

nervous because of the Utah at night

thing there's always the smoke you know

if those watch Utah football at night

and like and then the fog and smoke

comes down in the second half that

scares me a little bit but I do think I

think Utah wins this game I think

Arizona covers I think Arizona's going

to come out High

give me Arizona plus 9 and half versus

Utah the Shar money's all over them next

going Louisville plus 7 and half versus

Notre Dame same deal as Penn State most

of these books are plus 6 and a half

plus seven I just bought half a point uh

to get it to seven and a half so the

reason I like this is because Notre Dame

just doesn't really have much of an

offense when it comes to passing the

ball and when you can make a team that's

really a very solid team in Notre Dame

one

dimensional that obviously gives you a

major advantage if you're if you're in

Louisville's position um and Ry Leonard

like really has some Ser has had some

serious problems throwing the ball and

honestly Louisville plays up their

competition and this is probably I mean

I I would have to look but I would put

this on the top either top one or top

two most important games that Louisville

is going to have all season and I mean

all season and I'm getting a touchdown

and a half here and that's that's a key

number and Louisville was able to have

really good set against them last year I

think this game comes down to a field

goal seven and a half should be playing

to cover this number give me Louisville

plus s and a half versus Notre Dame next

oh this is a stinky one we're going with

auburn money line versus Oklahoma the

public is all in Oklahoma but they're

they don't very similar Notre Dame they

just don't have an offense Jackson

ornell does not look good and I know he

was very very highly talented coming out

out of a out of high school but he just

doesn't look good and that's with him

playing at home and Tennessee went in

there and I know the score was like a

10-point game or whatever Tennessee

would just dominated that game and I

mean dominated them and if you really

watch if you watch this game at all

Tennessee should have won this game by

30 points like in all seriousness this

Oklahoma team has the name but they're

not good and this is Auburn Super Bowl

like this truly is their Super Bowl and

it's in Auburn and it's basically to sa

if Hugh freeze his job because if he

wins I think he has a very good likel to

say if he loses this could casc into

something so much worse and Auburn's

defense defense really hasn't been a

serious problem it's been the offense I

miss a defensive battle Auburn is going

to pull this game off this number has

also moved a lot this number has gone

from plus two to Auburn was plus two

they're all the way to minus one I'm

taking them on the money line here cuz

the money Line's like minus 115 so we're

just going to take that but give me the

Auburn money line over Oklahoma I think

they get this game done next little bit

of a homer pick we're going Nebraska

minus 9 and a half versus Purdue this a

super Square play but they're going to

bounce back just keep it simple Purdue

complete they're terrible they're a

trash team they don't have any business

there's no enthusiasm for the football

team lot enm for the basketball team no

enthusiasm for the football team here

and nebrask is better at top to bottom I

we just go through every position they

are better Dyan ra is first uh Road game

but it's not going to be as tough of a

road game as it honestly could be and I

think he's going to be able to ease it

in a little bit uh Nebraska is going to

come out hot because again Nebraska

needs to go if it's for them to have any

chance of making noise in the postseason

getting to the college playf any chance

at all they have to be six and one

heading into the Ohio State game and I

they this is a game they've got to win

they've got to do it convincingly

especially with the buy coming next week

I think Nebraska gets this thing done

they're minus 9 and a half a lot books

are minus 10 I haven't I got a n and a

half on um DraftKings but give me

Nebraska - 9 and a half versus Purdue

here they're just better in every single

spot and know it's a very Square play

I'm aware but give me Nebraska and then

we're going with Minnesota plus 10 and a

half versus Michigan this is a huge and

I mean huge let down spot for Michigan

after they're winning against us C last

week Minnesota's season season's

viability is on the line and the sharp

money I mean is heavy and I mean heavy

on them they're only getting 16% of The

Bets with 27% of the money that's a m

that's a huge split and Michigan I mean

again like they they just had that win

they had against USC was impressive on

its face but they look terrible in the

second half and the USC dominated the

second half USC got punked a little bit

they came into Michigan thought it was

going to be like LSU and they got punked

big time early and Miller moner one of

the worst pick sixes you'll see like in

in in the entire season they had

Michigan had TW I think like 12 or 24

I'm forgetting either one's terrible but

12 or 24 yards of total offense for the

final drive and if you look at Michigan

if that big run doesn't happen if that

if I forgot who the runner I think it

was I don't think it was Donan Edwards

but whoever if that last run doesn't

happen and this guy breaks felt like 12

tackles Michigan loses this game and

they're two and two and they look like

garbage and I just think Minnesota's

going to keep this game really close

Minnesota's like I said Seasons seasons

on the line here Michigan's coming off a

major major major win I do think

Michigan wins the game but I think it's

like a three to seven point game uh 10

half should be playing to cover give

Minnesota plus 10 and a half versus

Michigan here today now I will I might

be adding a pick or two I got a couple

other circled crazy as it sounds um for

the public here today if I do I'll post

that in the pin comment below um as well

as my Twitter my Twitter's Link in

description below and as a member you'll

always get those texted to you um but

guys like I said we also have five

members only Best Bets today five um and

they're in big games too man we got the

ug we have we have Georgia and Alabama

that we have that play and our members

only we've got a lot of really good

plays in here I'm very I very very

confident about you can get all our

members only Best Bets zdm bets.com pii

website is linked in the comments below

as a member you get all members only

plays every single day just profitable

Best Bets on a day-to-day basis on top

of that you have a direct line to me so

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together to let's go make some money

I'll see you all tomorrow