Is a declining birthrate a blessing or a curse?

Summary

In this discussion, Andrea Sankia addresses the global population decline, exploring its implications for economies and the environment. Experts debate whether fewer people could ease planetary pressures, or if the focus should be on more prosperous individuals. They discuss the challenges of declining birth rates in countries like South Korea and Japan, the potential of immigration to balance populations, and the need for new economic models that don't rely on constant growth. Concerns are raised about the future of women's rights and the cultural shifts affecting fertility.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The global population is a complex issue with debates on whether a declining birth rate is positive or negative.
• 📉 Declining fertility rates could lead to economic challenges, such as fewer taxpayers to support an aging population.
• 🌱 Some argue that managing depopulation is an opportunity to reduce strain on the planet's resources.
• 📚 Historically, there was a significant fear of overpopulation leading to catastrophes, as highlighted in Paul Ehrlich's 'The Population Bomb'.
• 🌿 The current human population of 8 billion has contributed to issues like global warming and potential mass extinctions.
• 🔢 Population growth rates began slowing due to factors like the Industrial Revolution, improved healthcare, and women entering the workforce.
• 🇰🇷 South Korea exemplifies the population decline challenge, with the world's lowest fertility rate and attempts to increase it through social policies.
• 🧐 Immigration is suggested as a solution to spread wealth and balance population decline, but it faces political and social resistance.
• 🏠 In Japan, population decline has led to an increase in empty houses termed 'Akia' and school closures.
• 🌱 The discussion emphasizes the need for a mindset shift away from constant growth models in economics and population.
• 🌐 There's a global demographic shift with fertility rates declining even in developing countries, challenging traditional population growth assumptions.

Q & A

What is the current global population concern discussed in the script?

The script discusses the concern of a declining birth rate and its potential impact on economies and societies, rather than the historical concern of overpopulation.

What was the prediction in the 1960s about population growth?

In the 1960s, the prediction was that a population explosion would lead to war, famine, and the complete depletion of natural resources, as stated in the book 'The Population Bomb' by Paul Ehrlich.

How has the population growth trend changed recently?

The trend has shifted from a population explosion to a potential population decline, with fertility rates falling dramatically around the world.

Which country currently has the lowest fertility rate in the world?

South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world, at 0.68 births per woman and falling.

What is the ideal fertility rate to keep a country's population stable?

The ideal fertility rate to keep a country's population stable is 2.1 births per woman.

What measures has the South Korean government taken to increase its birth rate?

The South Korean government has boosted child care services, extended paid paternity leave, and offered financial incentives known as baby vouchers.

What is the term used to describe the management of population decline?

The term used to describe the management of population decline is 'manage depopulation'.

What are the potential negative consequences of declining population growth?

Potential negative consequences include fewer taxpayers to support social systems, an aging population, and potential economic challenges.

What is the role of immigration in addressing population decline?

Immigration can help spread the wealth of richer countries to developing nations and potentially support aging populations in countries with declining birth rates.

What is the stance of the pronatalist movement as discussed in the script?

The pronatalist movement advocates for taking the issue of population decline seriously and building new economic systems to prevent a societal and economic crisis.

How does the script suggest we should approach the issue of population decline?

The script suggests that we should shift our mindset from constant growth to sustainable living, improve conditions for the aging population, and consider the quality of life over sheer numbers.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Declining Birth Rates: Global Concerns and Economic Implications

The paragraph introduces the global debate on whether declining birth rates are beneficial or detrimental. It discusses the historical fear of overpopulation leading to catastrophes as predicted in the 1960s by Paul Ehrlich in 'The Population Bomb'. However, the current narrative shifts towards the challenges of depopulation, such as fewer taxpayers to support an aging population. The script points out that despite a growing global population, fertility rates are declining, leading to potential economic and societal shifts. It highlights South Korea's particularly low fertility rate and the government's unsuccessful attempts to increase it, suggesting a broader trend of population decline in East Asia.

05:00

📉 Population Decline: A Discussion on Global Demographics

This section features a panel discussion with experts on the implications of population decline. Philip Cohen explains that while population growth was primarily due to decreased mortality rates, the world is now likely to face a population decline later in the century. He suggests that this could be an opportunity to move away from the unsustainable model of constant growth. Malcolm Collins, a pronatalist, expresses concern about the rapid decline in fertility rates, particularly in countries like South Korea, and warns of the economic and societal consequences of ignoring this issue. The conversation touches on the potential for immigration to help redistribute wealth and balance population structures.

10:03

🌐 Managing Population Decline: Cultural and Economic Challenges

The discussion continues with panelists debating strategies for managing population decline. Jennifer Schuba emphasizes the need for a mindset shift away from the assumption of constant growth in economics and sociology. She points out that current demographic realities require new thinking. Philip Cohen agrees that population decline has negative economic and cultural consequences, but suggests that focusing solely on growing the population could lead to a loss of individual liberties, especially for women. The conversation also considers the environmental impact of population growth, particularly in developed countries with larger carbon footprints.

15:05

👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 The Impact of Population Dynamics on Social Structures

In this segment, the panelists address the social implications of changing population dynamics. They discuss the challenges of providing care for an aging population and the potential collapse of social security systems due to declining birth rates. Malcolm Collins warns of a 'taxpayer collapse' and the need to motivate near stable fertility rates in economically productive environments. Jennifer Schuba counters that focusing on the number of children rather than quality of life can risk individual rights, particularly women's rights. The conversation highlights the tension between the need for economic stability and the protection of individual liberties.

20:07

🌱 Cultural Shifts and the Future of Family Norms

The final paragraph of the script summarizes the panel's discussion on cultural shifts and their impact on family norms. Jennifer Schuba argues against focusing solely on the number of children born per woman, suggesting that cultural norms are mutable and that a focus on quality of life could naturally influence fertility rates. She also cautions against assuming cultural stasis, pointing to the global shift towards smaller family norms. The conversation concludes with the recognition that cultural, economic, and individual factors must be considered when discussing population management and the future of society.

Keywords

💡Declining Birth Rate

A declining birth rate refers to a situation where the number of live births per a certain number of the population is decreasing over time. In the context of the video, it is discussed as a potential issue for economies, as it can lead to a smaller workforce and increased pressure on social security systems due to an aging population. The video mentions countries like South Korea and Japan as examples where this phenomenon is particularly pronounced.

💡Population Collapse

Population collapse is a dramatic decline in a population's size, often due to factors such as low birth rates, high mortality rates, or environmental disasters. The video discusses theories of population collapse causing alarm, contrasting with the reality of a still-growing global population. The term is used to describe an extreme scenario that some believe could be averted by addressing declining birth rates.

💡Immigration

Immigration is the international movement of individuals from one country to another with the intention of residing there. In the video, immigration is presented as a potential solution to declining birth rates in wealthier nations, as it can help spread the wealth and balance the demographic changes by introducing a younger workforce.

💡Fertility Rate

Fertility rate is the number of live births, per woman of childbearing age, within a given time period. The video discusses fertility rates as a critical factor in population dynamics. It mentions that a rate of 2.1 births per woman is needed to keep a country's population stable, and countries like South Korea are far below this threshold.

💡Depopulation

Depopulation refers to a significant decrease in the number of people living in a particular area or country. The video uses the term to describe the potential future trend where birth rates continue to decline, leading to a shrinking population. It is presented as an opportunity to ease pressure on the planet but also poses challenges for economic and social structures.

💡Taxpayers

Taxpayers are individuals who are subject to a tax and are required to file a tax return. The video script discusses the implications of a declining birth rate on the number of taxpayers, which is crucial for funding public services and supporting retired populations. Fewer taxpayers could lead to financial strain on governments.

💡Industrial Revolution

The Industrial Revolution was a period during the 18th and 19th centuries where agrarian societies became industrial and urban. The video mentions the Industrial Revolution as a turning point that led to significant population growth due to improvements in agriculture, healthcare, and economic opportunities, which in turn influenced birth rates.

💡Sustainable Population

A sustainable population is one that can be maintained without causing damage to the environment or depleting natural resources. The video discusses the idea that the current and projected population growth may not be sustainable, and that managing depopulation could help bring the planet into balance with fewer people potentially putting less pressure on resources.

💡Pronatalist Policies

Pronatalist policies are government initiatives aimed at encouraging couples to have more children to counteract low birth rates. The video references South Korea's efforts to increase birth rates through pronatalist policies such as childcare services, paternity leave, and financial incentives, which have not been successful in reversing the trend.

💡Population Dynamics

Population dynamics refers to the changes in a population over time, including birth and death rates, migration, and age distribution. The video explores how changing dynamics in the workforce and society at large are affected by shifts in population size and structure, with implications for economic growth and social support systems.

💡Economic Prosperity

Economic prosperity refers to a state of economic growth and stability characterized by high income, low unemployment, and a high standard of living. The video suggests that having fewer but more prosperous taxpayers could potentially support the elderly and maintain economic stability amidst declining birth rates.

Highlights

Declining birth rates are causing alarm in wealthy nations.

Global population growth may be ignoring potential solutions through immigration or changing workforce dynamics.

Depopulation presents an opportunity to ease the pressure on the planet.

In the 1960s, the overriding fear was that a population explosion would lead to catastrophe.

Some of the feared consequences of overpopulation have come true, like global warming and mass extinction.

Population growth began to slow with the Industrial Revolution, improvements in agriculture, healthcare, and women joining the workforce.

China introduced its one-child policy, and India instated a controversial sterilization program.

United Nations forecasted a global population increase to 11 billion by the end of the century, but recent studies show a less abrupt increase.

Population decline is already happening in East Asia, especially in South Korea with the lowest fertility rate in the world.

South Korea's government has tried various social policies to increase its birth rate, but the option of immigration has proven unpopular.

Japan is experiencing an extraordinary effect of population decline with nearly 14% of all houses empty.

Demographic decline needs to be faced with immediate discussions on how to proceed.

The best way to manage the planet's population and shifting demographics is a topic of debate.

Pronatalist movement advocates for stable fertility rates in environments where people are economically productive.

Governments trying to promote increasing fertility rates often have negative consequences for human liberty.

The focus should be on improving the quality of life for everyone, which may eventually lead to higher fertility rates.

Cultural shifts have led to a small family norm, indicating that cultures are mutable and can change over time.

The discussion highlights the complexity of managing population growth and the need for a mindset shift towards sustainable solutions.

Transcripts

is a declining birth rate a blessing or

a curse pervasive theories on population

collapse are causing alarm and Wealthy

Nations but if the global population is

growing are we ignoring Solutions

through immigration or changing Dynamics

in our Workforce do we need more people

or fewer more prosperous ones who will

put less pressure on our

planet I'm Andrea sanki and today's

newsmaker is our global population

[Music]

it can be a delicate debate with

religion and culture weighing heavily on

the question of whether having large

families is good or bad for our

societies and for our planet declining

fertility rates pose potential obstacles

for our economies with governments

having fewer tax taxpayers to

accommodate more retired people but it

could be argued that managing

depopulation presents an opportunity to

ease the pressure on our planet with

fewer but more prosperous taxpayers able

to support the elderly while immigration

can help spread the wealth of richer

countries onto the developing world now

remember concerns about where our

population and demographics are going

date back decades in the 1960s the

overriding fear was that a population

explosion would lead to catastrophy in a

seminal book called the population bomb

the demographer Paul elich predicted it

was going to lead to war famine and

complete depletion of natural resources

and it's true that some of that has

happened our current population of 8

billion has caused man-made global

warming leading to a predicted sixth

mass extinction and we are struggling to

try to bring the planet back into

balance well over the last 300 years the

population has indeed exploded in the

year 1700 there were just 610 million

people but once the Industrial

Revolution took hold combined with

improvements in agriculture health care

and women joining the workforce the rate

of growth began to slow until recently

that didn't mean that the population

explosion wasn't still taking place

people were having slightly fewer

children but there were by now so many

people that the overall population was

heading to totally unsustainable numbers

and fears over that explosion LED some

countries to take drastic measures China

introduced its Infamous one child policy

and India instated a highly

controversial sterilization program just

three years ago the United Nations

forecast the global population would

increase to 11 billion by the end of the

century but since then some Studies have

shown that Peak population is expected

to be less and the decline in fertility

rates even more abrupt leading the

global population to decline either

before or around the turnament the

century and in quite a few countries

that population decline is already

happening especially in East Asia

nowhere is it more evident than in one

of the world's wealthiest countries

South Korea it now has the lowest

fertility rate in the world at 68 births

per woman and falling the rate needs to

be 2.1 births per woman to keep a

country's population stable the

government has tried and failed via

various social policies to increase its

birth rate but the option of immigration

has has proven

unpopular now if current trends continue

the country's population is set to fall

from its current 51 million to 36

Million by the year 2072 a drop of 30%

in just 50 years the South Korean

government has boosted child care

services extended paid paternity leave

and even offered Financial incentives

known as baby vouchers in 2022 president

Yun admitted the government had spent

more than $200 billion to increase the

birth rate yet it's still in

Decline while Italy has a similar

problem with fertility rates starting to

decline in the 1980s the country's

right-wing prime minister Georgia Malone

is so concerned she's created a Ministry

of family and birth the government's cut

VAT on baby products and increased

family allowances but as with South

Korea Financial incentives seem to have

little effect and then there's Japan

it's one of the first countries in the

world to experience population decline

line and its effect there has been

extraordinary nearly 14% of all houses

in Japan are empty they even have a name

Akia and there are 9 million of them

slowly decaying mostly around the

countryside it's also led to the closure

of nearly 9,000 schools in the last 20

years I think we need to face up to the

reality of demographic Decline and start

debating as soon as possible how we want

to proceed closing a school is a very

difficult issue it said that it takes 10

years from the start of discussions to

the closure if we want to take action in

the next 10 years we need to start

discussing it

immediately so what is the best way to

manage our planet's population and

shifting demographics well joining me

now to debate that and more are from

Valley Forge Pennsylvania founder of

pronatalist dorg Malcolm Collins

Jennifer schuba is the president of the

population reference Bureau

and from College Park Maryland sociology

professor and demographer at the

University of Maryland Philip Cohen

thanks all so much for being with me uh

Philip I'll start with you first of all

explain how we have a population that is

set to hit 10 billion by around

2058 yet we're talking about population

collapse well uh I'm not talking about

population collapse because I think

that's sort of alarmist and unnecessary

but we are probably headed toward

towards population decline uh later in

this Century um the population increased

in the world mostly because mortality

decreased you know people people started

surviving childhood more and uh as a

result of we had larger Generations uh

and still having having births at higher

rates so that gave us a huge population

boom uh uh mostly in the last century

and and you know as we've reached to

eight eight billion people it it might

appear that we're headed towards um you

know exponential growth and eventually

becoming you know just a the planet

becoming a ball of flesh but um actually

um uh uh the birth rates are are falling

dramatically around the world um and by

by the end of this Century we will have

pass that point uh of growth and start

um and start a period of decline unless

something um dramatic changes now that's

pretty pretty well baked in because of

the declining birth rates we've already

had but is that a good thing

well um if we can get ourselves out of a

a constant growth mindset you know the

idea that we can that we should always

that the population and the economy

always must be growing forever um you

know if you stop and think about it

there's no way that can ultimately be

sustainable so we're going to have to

figure out how to work with declining

population eventually um and we'll have

some time you know as as the birth rates

fall um we may over the course of the

next few hundred years um lose a few

billion people and be back to where we

were you know in in in the last century

which was fine having six billion people

was perfectly reasonable for for the

Earth so we can work it out but we will

have to do some um some careful

management and some redistribution of

resources uh to to make that work right

so manage depopulation is the is the

term I've heard because say this

exponential growth that we've been

witnessing over the last couple

centuries was never sustainable but

Malcolm why do you think we're in

trouble I mean you are technically what

one of those alarmists that maybe Philip

was alluding to go ahead yes and I heard

you know when I started caring about

this issue I heard a lot of people

saying you know you you shouldn't be so

alarmist about this you know the

developing world is always going to be

uh you know heavy in population and yet

we've seen you know you can look this

recent piece in America's quarterly uh

Latin America's fertility decline is

accelerating and no one knows why and

demographers in the region are beginning

to use terms like vertiginous to

describe the rate of population or

fertility crash that we're seeing in

Latin America when I started caring

about this I was in Korea and everyone

was saying oh don't worry about it it

won't get that bad you know it'll level

off somewhere um and now in Korea at

their current fertility rate not not

where it's projected current for every

hundred Koreans there's only going to be

Sixth great-grandchildren and and that

is alarm like like insanely optimistic

because um their fertility rate is

continuing to decline 11.5%

year-over-year just this last year and

even if they somehow got their

population fertility rate back up it

really wouldn't make a difference

because 60% of their population is over

the age of 40 right now I feel like

coming back to the US and and talking

about these issues or coming to Europe

and talking about these issues I got a

chance to go back in time 20 years and

warn people that there does not appear

to be a floor on this and right now in

the world generally speaking the only

countries that are above repopulation

rate are countries where the average

person is earning less than 5,000 USD

per year now it should be our goal to

raise these countries out of poverty yet

we are raising them out of poverty with

an economic system that is built on the

Assumption of constant growth which was

because the number of consumers and

producers was growing exponentially so

what we advocate for is to take this

issue seriously and build new economic

systems to to uh uh head off this train

wreck okay I mean I I'm not so sure when

you talk about the the growing

populations in developing countries um

what about bringing some of those

populations opening up a little more

immigration and you could argue that

could be a win-win because not only do

we grow in a country like the United

States where you are we don't only grow

our population the way you think is

necessary but we also can allow people

from developing countries to earn the

wages in wealthy countries that will be

brought back to the developing world so

that everyone can effectively Prosper it

could be a

win-win that would work if we were at

the population scenario we were 10 years

ago but as I mentioned Latin America

fell below repopulation rate all the way

back in

2019 they are dealing there was this

great article on The Economist recently

they are dealing with hugely stretched

social security systems because of their

aging populations we are just exporting

our own laziness to developing countries

that are less able to deal with the fact

that they are putting taxes and State

dollars into training people during

nonproductive childhood years then we

get their productive labor as adults and

now they have to deal with an even older

population because we've been draining

their countries but you could say okay

okay okay we'll only take immigrants

from countries that are still above

repopulation rate but because those

countries are predominantly under 5,000

USD per year now you've created an

economic incentive for Europe and the

United States to prevent those countries

from ever escaping poverty I told a

reporter this and they're like do you

really think the United States would de

would sabotage the developing countries

economies just for the sake of our own

and I was like yes of course they would

they that's like rmo

like let let me ask Jennifer then about

this and Jennifer if you can comment as

well on the analysis that says we are

only as a global Society I'm not just

going to say about the us we are only

thinking about the survival of our own

economies and our species as well at the

expense of the planet and other species

some of which we've run into

Extinction yeah I think this quote that

talking about really is about a mindset

shift H which Philip alluded to as well

actually all of us have I think are are

are pushing this forward that we have to

have a general mindset shift because if

you really think about it every Theory

we had about economics politics in

sociology that those theories were

developed under conditions where it

looked like there would be exponential

growth and where the values were around

exponential growth and so we have a lot

of thinking to do to catch up with the

way that the demographic reality has

changed and I think for a lot of people

the idea that we have shifted from um

this overpopulation rhetoric to one of

population decline that's new I still

talk to people who think uh you know

when I released a book about eight

billion people they said wow that's so

many I can't imagine how many more there

will be I'm like well we actually kind

of know how many more there will be but

our thinking hasn't quite caught up so

you know we talk about immigration some

of that rhetoric is also caught in the

past where we think about a world where

people are really on the move and

there's just um lots of people always

flowing over borders and of course the

media can can make it seem that way but

demog demographics around the world are

shifting and our migration patterns will

probably shift along with them bringing

a new set of issues so we need lots of

new thinking about this let me ask

philli though I mean okay let's be

honest because you said this you know we

we can't turn into a giant ball of human

flesh on this planet so fewer people at

the this point are technically better

you know for the planet humans have

caused as I said the extinctions of so

many plants and species already and a

six mass extinction is actually in the

cards right now so do we have the right

to insist that we need to keep growing

and we actually have an obligation to

keep doing so the the way Malcolm thinks

we

do um no and the issue is um uh growth

as a process has a lot of positive

consequences um it stimulates creativity

and uh sort of dynamism um and it and it

has some economic effects that we like

unfortunately the larger population that

growth produces causes a lot of problems

so we like the dynamic of growth but the

outcome of growth is not is is

unmanageable in the long run um and on

the the flip side of that is the dynamic

of population Decline and I I won't talk

about collapse or depopulation because

that's not what we're talking about but

the if we eventually which we probably

will get to a declining number of people

that process of decline produces a

dynamic that is that we're not really um

uh that we're not really equipped to

handle at the moment so it will it you

know it it has sort of negative Economic

Consequences um and cultural

consequences that we don't like you know

and and if you look at Korea it's a good

examp the most extreme example on Earth

um but but but a sharply declining

population has negative con consequences

so um we're going to have to deal with

that as a as a as a coming reality but

the idea that we can that we can always

grow ourselves out of any problem we

have is certainly

shortsighted okay Malcolm I could see

you itching to get in there go

ahead yeah I I want to be clear that the

pronatalist movement is not about

preventing population decline that is

impossible at this point if we are on

the Titanic we are hitting the iceberg

every time now we are just trying to

alert people to the sever of the

situation and trying to get as many

people on lifeboats as orderly as

possible uh you know we can say oh this

isn't a crisis but then we're also like

but you know our entire civilizational

structure is set up on the Assumption of

population growth like the global

economy is and we really don't have a

plan or a way to handle it when things

start shrinking on average and it's

better that we get out in front of this

issue uh especially because this doesn't

happen either would it be better to make

that plan instead of just growing the

population as per the older

models well the the best thing we can do

in a plan is to find a way to motivate

uh at least near stable fertility rates

in environments where people have

freedom and are economically productive

because if we don't do that then the

only cultural groups that survive are

going to be those groups that restrict

people's freedoms every let me ask let

me ask you this though because you're

speaking from the from the perspective

of an of a US citizen and in the US

we've seen an constantly increasing

number of a children in state care which

is also I've heard very set to grow

because of the limitations now on on

Reproductive Rights in many Southern

States so you'll have half a million PE

kids in the US in state care right now

you also have a decreasing often

decreasing job market with you know

medium skills job market that's being

automated uh and that there aren't as

many medium wage jobs aail able now

because technology is taking over plus

you have a serious homeless problem in

the United States and it's it it comes

out of you know you may think you have a

very strong family structure in the

family that you've created but many

people do not and people fall in the

cracks and then we have another massive

social issue on our hands with a growing

population of people that can't

contribute to society the way you want

them

to yeah so you just named a number of

tax holes right um and we're going to

increasingly have less taxes come in as

the population declines at an age where

we have even more people living off of

systems like Social Security and

eventually those systems are just going

to go bust you know this isn't a problem

about like wealthy people not having as

much money as they used to have it's a

problem of a lot of old people not

getting the care they need and dying

slow avoidable deaths okay but let me

ask Jennifer can they get that care they

need if you know this growing youthful

population

isn't as prosperous as it once was right

I think this that that question sets us

up to say we can't breed our way out of

this which I I think putting that

forward as the solution is a huge

mistake because what it does is it just

says well we don't need to try to change

anything we don't need to adapt all we

need to do is try to make more babies

and the demographic reality is that even

if these birth rates go up now we have

decades ahead of Aging populations and

so our focus in this conversation has

been on depopulation thinking about

overall population shrinking but along

with that first first comes population

aging which is inevitable and that's

that is the reality I will deal with for

the rest of my life my children will

deal with for the rest of their lives

and so just to put the focus on the

absolute number of people and to put the

focus on creating more babies completely

ignores that these larger systems you

know in a lot of f low fertility

countries youth unemployment is a huge

issue and so that's part of the reason

why people don't really want families or

if they want to start them feel like

they can't do it and so we need to start

shifting away from thinking about

absolute numbers and I really think that

if we focus on helping people have

better quality lives the eventual

byproduct of that may be higher

fertility but you end up with a huge

backlash when you focus on those numbers

um we keep thinking about Korea we've

talked about Korea a couple of times

there's a huge feminist backlash there

to really trying to raise fertility

rates from a government level that's

because not everyone wants the

bureaucrats in the bedroom right and

there is a huge worry that individual

rights will end up being restricted in

the name of overall growth so by putting

all of our focus and attention on those

numbers I think we take away the

individual experience the family

experience and the community experience

and that's where our real solutions lie

yeah Philip and there go ahead go ahead

yeah um uh it's really important to

understand that you know people don't

have children for the social good you

know that that that's not that that's

not that's not how individual decision

making works and there really is no

experience yet in the world of a

government promoting uh increasing

fertility rates without producing um

drastic negative consequences in terms

of uh human Liberty uh especially for

women I mean well there there's no

experience really of of producing Rising

fertility rates yet it's not a problem

that we've had um but but when

governments try to intervene um on on

the population um behavior in terms of

more children or less children um uh the

consequences are often drastic U for or

for Human Rights and Freedom so I think

Jennifer is exactly right that if we can

improve um the conditions of living um

then um some people may decide to have

more children I mean we're in a little

bit of a bind because the decline in

fertility has been really really good

and produced great consequences

especially for women uh and for and for

gender equality um and a lot of things

you do that may promote um people having

more children also um have the

consequence of increasing opportunities

and give people more choices of things

to do other than have children um so I I

don't think you can you know you we

haven't figured out a way to ride that

line where we're we're you know we're

providing child care for people which oh

we think that's going to make them have

more children well actually it also

makes them makes their careers more

viable and they may decide to have fewer

children um trying to manage that is is

not really feasible at least in terms of

any anything that anybody has discovered

so far but we do know how to make life

better especially as Jennifer says for

the Aging population um because um

that's coming no matter what uh and we

can do things to uh improve their health

and well-being improve their productive

uh years um some people people are happy

to work longer into older age um with um

with uh dignity and and good jobs uh and

some people want to have retirement um

but but we can we can do we can do

better in Old in older ages for and

Philip quickly um I I also wanted to

look at at this angle that you know this

this argument you've heard people make

that it's you know developing countries

that don't have the resources to support

a growing population are the ones having

more children but then we have the issue

of children in developing countries

developed countries excuse me also

leaving the biggest carbon footprint you

know one child in a developed country

leaves the same I think as about nine or

10 in a developing country and then it

harms those developing countries and and

prevents also their kind of their

economic growth prospects as well

because they're dealing with massive

climate change issues so

disproportionately how can we also kind

of factor that in uh when we look at the

global population Dynamics and who

should be looking at growth on a fair

scale well growing population right at

the World level growing population

creates environmental problems um on the

other hand like you you mentioned

earlier um uh migration uh immigration

to wealthier societies um uh uh produces

very important positive effects both for

the receiving and for the sending uh

societies uh and again is a question of

human Freedom if people want to move to

places with stronger iies and more

opportunities that's something they

should be able to do as human beings and

that has positive consequences but we

have to manage that and it becomes a

political problem at that point yeah

Malcolm yeah uh well one thing I really

want to note here which is something

that you've highlighted is not everyone

is like you can have more kids and if

you just have a ton more kids who are on

welfare or something like that you

haven't really made the problem any

better what we're really dealing with

globally isn't so much a population

collapse but a taxpayer collapse um and

the two core things that affect

fertility rate the most are one a

person's economic productivity the more

economically productive a country is or

an individual is the less likely they

are to have kids and those are the kids

that are more likely to be economically

productive themselves which is going to

compound this problem the second is the

person's cultural group the secondary

problem we has here is intra

generationally um uh you know declining

for IL has been great for women's rights

intergenerationally it's going to be

terrible for women's rights and that is

because if it turns out that every

cultural group that accepted women's

rights uh Falls way below fertility rate

and it makes up a smaller portion of the

global population in the future and all

the groups that started restricting

those rights end up becoming bigger and

bigger in their cultural footprint then

in the future of humanity women will

have far less rights and we're already

seeing this in places like China where

they're restricting access to for

fertility control and birth control we

are Marching head first into a future of

a handmaid's tail I I I need to get a

woman's perspective on that then

Jennifer well I you know I think there

could

potentially be an issue with with um

this line of reasoning because we assume

that a cultures don't change and we

assume that just because we have a child

within a culture they stay within that

culture and that's absolutely not the

case and we've seen tons of cultural

shifts in fact how did we get here to

having this convers ation today a

massive planetary cultural shift towards

a small family Norm so I think we need

to allow for the fact that cultures are

mutable I think also it is the very

focus on absolute numbers and on births

and average number of children born per

woman listen carefully to those words

that puts those rights at risk if we do

start to shift to thinking about um why

are people having uh different family

formation patterns today than they had

in the past and we kind of take it away

from just the focus on women then I

think we bring ourselves back to that

point I made about quality of life for

everyone okay me in a country like China

when we try to restrict rights around

women you see these backlashes Jennifer

Shuba that will have to be the final

word so unfortunately we're out of time

uh for this edition of the newsmakers

I'd like to thank all three of my

panelists so much for being with us

fascinating discussion our viewers of

course were joining us as well remember

you can follow us on X and do be sure to

subscribe to our YouTube channel I'm

Andrea thank you we'll see you next time

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