Fareed Zakaria — Revolutions & Global Affairs | Prof G Conversations

Summary

In a thought-provoking discussion, the host engages with a renowned guest on the pivotal revolutions that have shaped world history, emphasizing the Industrial Revolution's transformative impact on global economics and societal standards of living. The conversation delves into the current technological revolution, exploring its profound social and psychological implications. The discussion also addresses the cultural and political backlash triggered by rapid global changes, highlighting the challenges and potential paths forward in the context of American politics and international relations, including the complex dynamics between the US, China, Russia, and Iran.

Takeaways

• 💡 The Industrial Revolution is identified as the most transformative event in human history, causing a dramatic increase in average income and living standards.
• 📝 Fareed Zakaria's new book, 'Age of Revolutions', explores significant revolutions throughout history, including the economic, French, Industrial, and present-day revolutions like globalization, technology, identity, and geopolitics.
• 📰 Technological advancements have not only accelerated economic growth but also introduced a new digital economy, significantly influencing societal and psychological aspects of life.
• 🛠 The digital revolution has transitioned the world from a focus on physical assets to digital ones, changing how various sectors, including transportation and energy, operate.
• 🗣 AI's potential to multiply human cognitive capabilities raises questions about its impact on human identity and societal structures.
• 📚 Historical revolutions often lead to significant political and identity shifts, reflecting on current global and domestic political landscapes.
• 🌍 The backlash against rapid changes brought about by revolutions is a recurring theme, influencing current geopolitics and the rise of nationalist movements.
• 🖥 The liberal international order faces challenges from countries opposing Western values, with outcomes affecting global stability and power dynamics.
• 🛡 Fareed Zakaria discusses the importance of actively defending and promoting progress and individual liberty to ensure the continuation of a peaceful and prosperous international order.
• 🚦 Zakaria argues for the strategic necessity of maintaining the liberal international order, emphasizing the significance of willpower and leadership in navigating geopolitical tensions.

Q & A

What is the main argument presented in the book 'Age of Revolutions'?

The main argument of the book is that significant technological and economic changes lead to identity and political revolutions, followed by a backlash. The author discusses how this pattern has played out through history, including the recent revolutions in economics, technology, identity, and geopolitics.

How does the Industrial Revolution compare to the technological advancements of the past century?

The Industrial Revolution is considered a discontinuity in human history as it marked the first time humans were able to escape poverty and improve their standard of living on a sustained basis. In contrast, while the technological advancements of the past century have been dramatic, they have not shown the same level of economic growth described as 'going parabolic' in the way the Industrial Revolution did.

What are the social and psychological consequences of the digital revolution?

The digital revolution has created a new economy and a new mental world, shifting from a world of atoms to one of bits and bytes. This shift has significant social and psychological consequences, including changes in how humans perceive themselves and interact with each other, as well as the potential for AI to multiply human cognitive abilities.

What is the author's view on the potential risks and benefits of AI?

The author sees AI as having the potential to solve major problems like disease and global warming, which is fascinating. However, it also raises concerns about the implications for human identity and the potential for AI to replace human minds, leading to uncharted waters.

How does the author address the backlash to the recent revolutions in the book?

The author argues that the current backlash is a cultural reaction to the dramatic changes brought about by the revolutions in economics, technology, identity, and geopolitics. This backlash is characterized by a resistance to the changes and a desire to return to a previous state of affairs.

What is the significance of the agrarian land power versus maritime trading power dynamic?

The dynamic of agrarian land power versus maritime trading power is significant as it represents a recurring pattern of great power rivalry throughout history. The author suggests that the current tensions between China and the US can be seen in this context, with cultural and geopolitical aspects influencing the rivalry.

How does the author view the role of the United States in the current global order?

The author views the United States as a dominant power with significant technological and economic advantages. However, the ability to maintain this position is contingent on the U.S. effectively navigating the current backlash and maintaining its commitment to the liberal international order.

What is the author's perspective on the rise of other nations like China and India?

The author acknowledges the rise of nations like China and India, noting their scale and vibrant economies. He suggests that these nations, along with others, are becoming politically stable and culturally independent, leading to a world of middle powers that are not easily directed by any single superpower.

How does the author suggest the United States should navigate the current global landscape?

The author suggests that the United States needs to effectively use diplomacy and leverage its strengths to navigate the current global landscape. This includes addressing internal dysfunction and presenting a unified front to handle challenges from rising powers and the backlash against recent revolutions.

What are the implications of the current conflict between Israel and Hamas, according to the author?

The author sees the conflict as a complex issue where Israel has gone from an appropriate response to an overreaction. He raises concerns about the long-term strategy and the potential for further radicalization as a result of the conflict. The author suggests that a sustainable solution involves addressing the Israeli concerns of security while finding a way to create stable governance in Gaza.

What is the author's view on the potential for a two-state solution in Israel and Palestine?

The author believes that a two-state solution is necessary but acknowledges the challenges, including the need for a demilitarized Palestinian state due to security concerns. He suggests that any solution will need to address the current radicalization and find a way to disentangle the two peoples.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Global Peace and Economic Growth

The speaker discusses the unprecedented period of global peace and economic expansion in human history. They highlight the significant reduction in conflicts and the explosion of global economics and trade. The speaker attributes the dramatic rise in living standards to the Industrial Revolution, which lifted humanity out of poverty and set the stage for continuous improvement in living conditions over the past 250 years. They also touch on the impact of recent technological advancements and predict that the digital revolution will continue to transform the economy and society.

05:01

🚫 Addressing the AI Revolution and its Implications

The conversation shifts to the potential impact of AI on society. The speaker argues that while AI offers immense potential for solving complex problems like disease and climate change, it also poses challenges that need to be managed. They discuss the concept of 'kill switches' to control AI and the societal and psychological changes brought about by technological advancements. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the historical context of revolutions to navigate the current era of rapid change.

10:02

🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Cultural Backlash

The speaker delves into the geopolitical tensions and cultural backlash resulting from rapid technological and economic changes. They describe how these transformations have led to identity and political revolutions, with a particular focus on the current backlash against globalization, technology, and shifting cultural norms. The speaker expresses concern over the rise of reactionary forces and the potential for conflict, while also highlighting the importance of maintaining a liberal international order.

15:03

💡 The Role of Technology in Global Dominance

The speaker discusses the historical pattern where nations leading in technology tend to become dominant global powers. They point out that the United States, with its technological advancements and strong economy, is well-positioned to handle challenges from other nations like China and Russia. However, they also note that internal dysfunction and lack of coordinated effort could undermine this advantage. The speaker stresses the need for unity and strategic diplomacy in navigating global power dynamics.

20:04

📈 The Rise of the Rest and Shifts in World Order

The speaker examines the rise of nations outside the United States, such as China and India, and their impact on the world order. They note that while these countries are gaining strength and confidence, they are also becoming more culturally and politically independent. The speaker highlights the challenge of managing a world where no single superpower can dictate terms, and the importance of diplomacy in fostering collective action among these 'middle powers.'

25:05

🕊️ The Search for Stability in the Middle East

The speaker discusses the complex situation in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They argue that Israel's response to Hamas' actions may have been excessive and counterproductive, potentially radicalizing more Palestinians. The speaker suggests that a long-term sustainable strategy is needed, one that involves creating a stable governance structure in Gaza and addressing the root causes of conflict. They emphasize the importance of understanding the cultural and historical context to find a viable solution.

30:08

🤝 Cultural Empathy and the Path to Peace

The speaker reflects on the need for cultural empathy in resolving conflicts, using the Israeli-Palestinian situation as an example. They suggest that understanding the objectives and motivations of groups like Hamas is crucial for finding a path to peace. The speaker also discusses the potential for a two-state solution and the importance of demilitarizing the Palestinian state to ensure Israel's security. They highlight the role of moderate Arabs and the Palestinian Authority in creating a stable and peaceful future.

35:09

🎓 The State of Higher Education and Campus Culture

The speaker critiques the current state of higher education, particularly the focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. They argue that these efforts, while well-intentioned, have led to increased segregation and a more hostile campus environment. The speaker suggests that the emphasis on ascriptive identities is fundamentally opposed to the liberal project and calls for a renewed focus on integration and commonality among students.

Keywords

💡Industrial Revolution

The Industrial Revolution refers to the period of rapid industrial growth and socioeconomic change that began in the late 1700s and continued into the 19th century. It marked a significant shift from agrarian societies to industrial ones, characterized by the introduction of new machinery, mass production, and the rise of the factory system. In the video, the speaker emphasizes the transformative impact of the Industrial Revolution on human history, noting its role in lifting people out of poverty and setting the stage for continuous improvements in living standards over the following 250 years.

💡Globalization

Globalization is the process by which businesses or other organizations develop international influence or start operating on an international scale. It involves the integration of economies, societies, and cultures through trade, investment, technology, and the exchange of ideas. In the video, the concept of globalization is discussed as one of the pivotal revolutions shaping world history, alongside the economic, technological, and identity revolutions, highlighting its role in creating interdependence among nations and fostering economic growth.

💡Digital Revolution

The Digital Revolution refers to the radical changes in the way information and data are created, stored, shared, and consumed due to the advent of digital technology and the internet. It has led to the transformation of many aspects of daily life, including communication, commerce, and entertainment. In the transcript, the speaker discusses the Digital Revolution as a continuation of the historical trend of technological advancements that have exponentially increased productivity and created a new economy based on information and services.

💡Identity Revolution

An Identity Revolution refers to significant changes in how individuals or groups perceive themselves and their place in society. This can involve shifts in cultural, political, or social identities that often accompany major historical events or technological changes. In the context of the video, the Identity Revolution is one of the four present-day revolutions mentioned, emphasizing the impact of globalization and technology on shaping personal and collective identities, and how these shifts influence political and social dynamics.

💡Geopolitics

Geopolitics is the study of the effects on international relations of the geographic distribution of land and sea power, which can include the strategic significance of countries and regions. It examines how geography influences political power and how nations interact with one another. In the video, geopolitics is discussed in the context of the current global landscape, particularly focusing on the tensions between land-based and maritime powers, and how these dynamics influence international order and conflict.

💡Backlash

Backlash refers to a strong negative reaction by a segment of society to changes that have occurred, often perceived as threats to established norms, values, or interests. In the video, the term is used to describe the cultural and political resistance to the rapid changes brought about by the revolutions in economics, technology, identity, and geopolitics. The backlash is seen as a natural response to the disruptions caused by these revolutions, leading to a struggle between the forces of progress and those seeking to maintain the status quo.

💡Liberal International Order

The Liberal International Order refers to a system of international relations based on the principles of liberal democracy, free trade, and the rule of law. It emphasizes the importance of international institutions and cooperation in maintaining global peace and stability. In the video, the speaker discusses the current challenges to this order, particularly from countries like Russia and China that resist the influence of Western liberal democracy and seek to assert their own models of governance and development.

💡Cultural Counterrevolution

A Cultural Counterrevolution is a movement or trend that seeks to reverse or resist cultural changes, often by promoting traditional values and practices. It can be a response to rapid social, political, or technological transformations that some segments of society find unsettling or threatening. In the transcript, the speaker mentions cultural counterrevolution in the context of the backlash against the revolutions in technology, identity, and geopolitics, highlighting how it manifests in efforts to preserve traditional roles and resist the influence of Western liberal democracy.

💡AI Revolution

The AI Revolution refers to the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on various aspects of society, including the economy, healthcare, and governance. It involves the development and application of AI technologies that can perform tasks previously done by humans, leading to increased efficiency and the potential for new solutions to complex problems. In the video, the AI Revolution is discussed as a continuation of the historical pattern of technological advancements, with the potential to significantly alter the nature of work and the way societies function.

💡Great Power Peace

Great Power Peace refers to a period of relative stability and absence of large-scale conflicts among the world's most powerful nations. It is characterized by a balance of power and a set of norms and institutions that prevent major wars between these states. In the video, the speaker reflects on the current era as one of the longest periods of great power peace in human history, raising questions about whether this peace can be sustained in the face of growing geopolitical tensions and the challenges posed by new technologies.

Highlights

The longest period of great power peace and the greatest explosion of global economics and trading in human history is being threatened by a potential return to the jungle of realpolitik.

The author's new book, 'Age of Revolutions: Progress and Backlash from 1600 to the Present', discusses pivotal revolutions that have shaped world history, including the economic, French, Industrial, and present-day revolutions in globalization, technology, identity, and geopolitics.

The Industrial Revolution is highlighted as the most transformative event in human history, lifting people out of poverty and raising living standards for over 250 years.

The digital revolution has created a new economy and mental world, with software eating the world and AI controlling software, leading to a potential paradigm shift in how we live and work.

The social and psychological consequences of technological changes are as significant as the economic effects, altering our conceptions of human identity and potential.

The AI Revolution could multiply human cognitive abilities, leading to dramatic changes in problem-solving capabilities, but also raises concerns about uncharted territories.

The current backlash against dramatic technological and economic changes is leading to identity and political revolutions, with societies grappling with cultural reactions.

The tension between land and maritime powers is still relevant today, with the US and China representing a modern version of this dynamic.

The US must demonstrate willpower and staying power to maintain its position as a global leader and uphold the liberal international order.

The rise of the rest, including nations like China and India, is shifting the world order, with these countries gaining strength, confidence, and independence.

The US continues to lead in technology and has significant economic and military advantages, but internal dysfunction threatens its ability to effectively utilize these strengths.

The situation in Israel and Gaza is a complex issue of proportionate response and long-term sustainable strategy, with Israel's actions potentially leading to further radicalization.

A potential solution for Gaza involves a stable governance structure without a military, addressing Israeli security concerns while providing a path for Palestinian self-determination.

The cultural and political divide in the US is a significant challenge, with the need for leadership that addresses both economic opportunities and cultural anxieties.

American universities excel at teaching critical thinking and problem-solving, but have seen a rise in segregated and divisive identity politics that undermine the liberal education project.

The Biden administration has made significant public investments in America, but needs to engage more in cultural issues and reassure the public that it is not aligned with radical agendas.

The potential for cultural and ideological alignment between Iran and the US exists, but the current regime in Iran is deeply entrenched and resistant to change.

The key to avoiding self-inflicted defeat lies in addressing both economic and cultural challenges, with a focus on integration and shared American values.

Transcripts

we set up this system where you have a

much you know it's the longest period of

great power peace in human history um

it's the greatest explosion of global

economics and trading in human history

the lowest number of conflicts uh in you

know in human history is that all going

to go away because we're going to allow

a return to the Jungle of real

[Music]

politic fared where does this podcast

find you I'm in New York at my at my

house oh nice uh so let's bust right

into it your new book age of revolutions

progress and backlash from 1600 to the

president walks The Reader through

pivotal revolutions that have shaped

world history the economic Revolution

the French Revolution the Industrial

Revolution and four present day

revolutions globalization technology

identity and

geopolitics let's start with the past

revolutions stack rank them in order of

how they changed their trajectory of

History what if you were going to write

a book on one of them which one would it

be it would be the Industrial Revolution

the Industrial Revolution changed the

world you can see this in a very simple

graph if you look at a graph of per

capita income average income of human

beings in the world uh over the last

2,000 years it's basically a flatline

for

1,750 of those years and then sometime

around the 18th century it starts to go

up and then it's like a hockey stick

graph it just goes way up we go roughly

speaking from a couple hundred per

capita income per person to 5,000 6,000

7,000 and that dramatic rise is

basically because of the Industrial

Revolution so if you ask yourself what

is the single thing that has changed the

course of human history the most

discontinuous feature of human life it

is the Industrial Revolution where

finally human beings were able to get

themselves out of poverty out of real

grinding medieval poverty and

almost on a sustained basis keep raising

their standards of living for 250 years

but hasn't technology their technology

Revolution sort of hockey sticked the

hockey stick and that is what happened

in those previous you know the pr the

previous Century has gone parabolic I

think in the last 50 years no the

microprocessor

vaccines um internal combustion engines

hasn't it even gotten more parabolic in

the last four or five decades so you

know the data does not show um economic

growth going parabolic in that way as

you know you've seen some Optics of

productivity and you've seen um rises in

you know in in certainly the US for

example has done very well over the last

30 years but part of it is I think that

that was starting from such a low base

you know you you starting with people

who are barely having one meal a day uh

so I think you haven't seen quite that

in the data but I agree with you and

that's part of what I try to explain in

the book that the the nature of the

digital Revolution if we can just call

it that for a moment is that it has

created a whole new economy and a whole

new mental you know world for us uh Mark

Andre's famous uh blog post where he

talks about software eating the world

gets it exactly right the world used to

be run it was a world of atoms and what

happened is the the digital Revolution

came and it created a world of bits and

bites that now control that those atoms

so actually the internal combustion

engine is is kind of irrelevant now what

a car is becoming is software on Wheels

and it's the software that controls that

and now what's going to happen is you're

going to have ai that controls the

software and those things become param

and and the point I'm trying to make in

the book is not so much about the

economic effect it's the sort of Social

and psychological consequences of these

changes which you know and care a lot

about it is mindblowing in every way to

think about that you know human beings

have never had the power to multiply

their minds the way that AI is going to

be able to allow them to do what does

that do to our conceptions of who we are

as human beings and what does history

tell us about there's a lot of

catastrophizing around Ai and I can't

I'm trying to sort through how much of

his techn narcissism where people like

to think that the singular the single

point of failure that's going to or

success that's going to destroy or save

Humanity or if we should really be

worried about it if as you look through

history and these revolutions if we're

going through an AI Revolution what can

we learn from the past

revolutions I share your skepticism that

that it's going to like end human

existence it's going to extinguish the

the the universe that stuff has always

struck me as you know kind of

catastrophizing and you can see how it

has the potential but you know human

beings at the end of the day I had to

put it in simple terms you can pull the

plug you can create a kill switch you

can create for example a simple break

between the ability of AI and AI or

Opera machines to access energy at the

end of the day they need energy to run

and so you know now you could say those

kill switches become increasingly

expensive uh if you're running your

whole society and your whole economy and

your whole cities on AI and then you

suddenly say the only you know the the

bre is going to be that you lose the

access to energy well maybe you you then

lose access to the AI That's running

everything you know your planes your

traffic lights everything like that but

there is a kill switch the effect I

think that is most likely to happen is

exactly what's happened with this

digital Revolution but on steroids

because I do think that that that piece

of this is new we until now we have

always been able to use technology as a

tool you know the Industrial Revolution

was fundamentally an energy Revolution

we were able to make machines that could

do the work of thousands of humans

thousands of horses that's why we talk

about horsepower it was about replacing

horses and a steam engine by the end

could replace thousands of horses it

would do was able to do the work so the

AI Revolution I think allows you to

replace mines it allows you to replace

thousands of Mines because one computer

one AI program can do what thousands of

mins used to do that is mind blowing and

that's the part I I'm fascinated by in

terms of the potential of what it can do

in terms of solving problems like

disease and global warming uh but it's

also kind of scary we we are entering

unchartered

Waters so some revolutions caused

tremendous productivity some revolutions

end in World War when now now do

politics when you look at examining

these different revolutions and looking

at the state of American politics or let

me go broad the state of geop politics

in

2024 what lessons from history do you

glean and what does it say about the

situation we're in right now so the

central argument of the book is every

time you have these massive changes in

technology and and economics propelling

some societies for dramatically you get

two things happen you get an identity

and a political revolution the identity

Revolution because you start to think of

yourself differently um you know that

starts with the Dutch the Dutch become

the richest country in Europe but but

most importantly they start to think of

themselves differently they're no longer

part of the Spanish Empire they're Dutch

they break away they're no longer part

of the Catholic world they're Protestant

they break away and those identity

revolutions create a political

revolution that's point one and point

two is you always have a backlash and

what we are living through right now is

the backlash to one of the most dramatic

perhaps the most dramatic revolutions

that we've had as you said these four

revolutions uh taking place almost

simultaneous iously economics in with

globalization technology with

information uh identity and geopolitics

all happening so we are living through

the the the backlash the cultural

backlash to all of this how we navigate

that backlash is going to determine

where we end up here you know are we

going to get overwhelmed by it are we

going to sort of accept the the the

trumps and brexits and Victor orbons of

the world who say stop the train I want

to get off uh the real backlash in a

sense comes from Russia and China where

they say and Iran to a certain extent

where they're all saying we don't want

any of this world we you know we believe

that this Western modernity Western

liberal democracy is ruining the world

the Western liberal order is corrupt and

they're fighting back and if for example

Russia wins in Ukraine what will that do

to that liberal International order

that's rested on the premise that you

can't you can't just take another

another country's territory by force so

I I don't think that there is a future

out there that I can predict for you

because it depends on our actions but

what I the lesson I came from is I I

drew from it is you are you aren't going

to be able to move forward you are not

going you know the forces of progress

and acceleration and individual liberty

don't win by themselves you know it's

all going to happen naturally it's you

can't be fatalistic about this and say

oh time is on our side you know Steve

Pinker tells me it's all going to work

out in the end no you got to fight for

it you've got you got to really get in

there and fight back the forces of

reaction and

counterrevolution you write in the book

that throughout history there's often a

pattern of great power rivalry in which

an agrarian land power is pitted against

a maritime trading power uh is this

still the case today it sounds like

you're you're describing the the tension

between China and the US am I to say

more about that yes both Russia and

China in some ways are fundamentally

landow though China has a very large

coast and you know kind of functions in

both ways um and they're both launching

this very spirited Campa and it's not

just a geopolitical balancing one of the

things that I realized when reading more

and more of what Putin and she are

saying it's a cultural balancing they

really believe that these ideas of

Western liberal democracy are

destabilizing destabilizing their

societies destabilizing their basis for

power you know Putin goes on these rants

about how you know the the the the

United States is turning into the

sexual fantasy land or trans rights and

gay rights uh you know he came out one

day in favor of JK Rowling against the

people who were cancelling her xiin ping

talks a lot about how he wants women

back in the kitchen you know assuming

their traditional roles so there's a lot

of here a lot here that's about cultural

reaction and cultural

counterrevolution but the geopolitical

piece of it is very important because

they regard the liberal International

order that the US has set up and and run

as one where they they don't get to to

do whatever they want right there are

constraints There Are Rules there are

norms and they're going to push they're

going to keep pushing and we have to

figure out do we have the uh The

Willpower to fight back we have the

capacity Scott if you looking at the

Cold War the the Coalition against a

raid against the Soviet Union comprised

Say by 1970 it was about probably 40% of

GDP of global GDP um today the Coalition

that is supporting Ukraine against

Russia is 60% of global GDP if you throw

in India and a few others on the on the

fence you'd get to about 70% of global

GDP the question is do we have the

willpower the staying power and most

importantly in that regard is does the

leader of the west of the of the Free

World have that staying power uh um and

do we want to fight that do we

understand the stakes and the problem I

have with Trump on International Affairs

is I really don't think he understands

the stakes that we are up against this

challenge of what is this order that

we've built since 1945 That's Unique in

in human history you know nobody before

that it's like the jungle of real

politic for thousands of years and then

we set up this system where you have a

much you know it's the longest period of

great power peace in human history um

the greatest explosion of global

economics and trading in human history

the lowest number of conflicts uh in ter

you know in human history is that all

going to go away because we're going to

allow a return to the Jungle of real

politic it's interesting as you talk

about pushing back and it strikes me I

love what you're saying we kind of have

the muscle it's the question of whether

we have the mentality or the will

because I was reading that as a

percentage of our GDP our military

spending is actually quite low relative

to torically but yet just whatever it is

3% of our GDP is 800 billion which is

greater than the next 10 economies

combined I mean we have the resources

right it it feels as if the great threat

and this is a thesis and you push back

or tell me that you know if America was

a horror movie The call is coming from

inside of the house it's that we don't

like each other we can we can battle any

external threat we just can't we have

the muscle I'm just not sure we have the

coordination or we or we're starting to

self harm thises does that make any

sense 100% right think about it this way

Scott you know one of the points in the

book is that the country that leads in

technology always ends up being the

dominant power so it's Netherlands in

the in the 17th century it's Britain by

the end of the 18th century it's the

United States in the 20th century in the

21st century the United States leads in

technology like it has never LED before

like no country in the world has ever

LED before if you look at the world of

of information revolution biotech

nanotech AI whatever you want the US is

so far ahead in the lead those seven or

eight companies that that you know are

top technology companies the market cap

of those companies is larger than the

market cap of the entire countries of

Britain France Germany and Canada put

together Apple's market cap alone is

larger than the stock market

capitalization of the total country of

Germany we make more energy than anybody

in the world we make more oil than Saudi

Arabia we make more natural gas than

Qatar our banks are the dominant banks

in the world the dollar is the dominant

currency in the world and unlike any

other rich country in the world we are

demographically vibrant because of

immigration every other rich country in

the world is declining in population

they're basically turning into Florida

as retirement communities we are vibrant

you put all that together and you say

could could we handle China of course we

can handle China could we handle Russia

of course we could it's the problem is

our our our dysfunction within you know

that's taking this amazing hand of cards

and making us play it badly you

described the phenomena you call the

rise of the rest which examines how

Nations outside of the US have gained

strength and confidence which nations

are you paying the most attention to and

and how have they kind of shifted the

world order so when I wrote that book uh

obviously the one I focused on most was

China um which was Rising fast and I you

could see that uh even then um and I

talked about it as the inevitable

Challenger um I think India is probably

the the next most important one I know

India is having a kind of moment in the

Sun but it it's basically Justified uh

it's because there's no other country

that has the scale that China has and

India has that scale and it has an

incredibly vibrant economy it's growing

from a very slow small base people don't

right don't completely understand when

they sort of talk about India as the

next China so the Chinese economy is

still 4 and a half times bigger than the

Indian economy um and so it's India is

going to have to take a take a while to

catch up but it is uh on that scale but

then there are you know under those two

there's Indonesia there's Brazil there's

Nigeria there's South Africa and the

most interesting the feature of all of

these uh Scott is that they're

becoming politically stable and

economically uh Dynamic enough that

they're getting culturally and

politically independent and proud so you

can't boss them around anymore that's

the Dilemma of the world we're in in

terms of kind of management if you will

it's not that there is uh you know uh a

superpower that can truly rival the

United States there isn't and it's not

that the US has declined I mean we are

still 25% of global GDP you know what we

were in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was was

elected 25 % of global GDP it's amazing

with all this change our share of the

world economy has stayed the same it's

the Europeans and the Japanese that have

gone down the losers but it's a world of

up middle Powers if you want want to put

it that way uh you know that aren't

going to be taking directions from

Washington and how to navigate a world

like that how to Corral these countries

to some collective action that that's

you know that's where the skill of

diplomacy becomes really important

because you don't have you don't quite

have the muscle you had in the past you

got to use words as much as

muscle stay with

us the last time we spoke we spoke the

week after October the 7th so it's been

five months and by the way I was saying

off mic the video U or the video of the

podcast we did with you got I think 1.2

or 1.4 million views and I was I was

ribbing you that more people watched you

on this podcast than watch any CNN show

which is a different talk show about how

the world of media is changing but what

in the last 5 months in terms of the war

in Gaza what give us a sense for the

state of play how it's

unfolded and what has surprised you and

where do you think it's headed sure so I

mean in terms of these broad systemic

things that we're talking about it's

it's worth putting this in perspective

this is largely a second order uh uh

issue it's a it's it's a sideshow

compared to the big forces that are

shaping the world uh Israel is the

dominant power in the Middle East and

Will Remain the dominant power in the

Middle East because it is the

technologically most advanced country it

is politically the mo the most potent it

hasn't the military that none of these

other countries can match so you put all

that together and Israel is not just

there to stay but it's there to be the

dominant player

now is it handling this this challenge

appropriately my view they went from an

appropriate response to an overreaction

and I think I in this regard basically

share the Biden administration's view

that they've just gone too far uh Donald

Rumsfeld used to have a rule which he

said which I wish he had followed

himself after the Iraq War but when he

was Secretary of Defense in the war on

terror he would say are we creating more

terrorists than we are killing by our

actions and I think about that when I

think about Israel now you know it's

killed about 15,000 Hamas militants by

by their own by the Israeli government's

own count they've killed about 30 odd

thousand Palestinian civilians they've

destroyed about 60% of the buildings in

in uh in in Gaza and if they do Rafa

it'll probably be worse because those

these people have now these one and a

half million people have now been

displaced three

times and my question is are you you

know are you is it worth the next you

know this last 5,000 Hamas militants

given the costs you are generating in

terms of the radicalization of

Palestinians the radicalization of the

Arab Street I don't think they've got

the balance right uh right now frankly

we got the bounce wrong after 9/11 so I

understand it there's a lot of rage

there's a lot of outrage in this

particularly for Israel a feeling of um

existential vulnerability that I don't

think we appre sh in I mean this is a

country that from the day it was founded

its neighbors tried to eliminate it and

then 20 years later in ' 67 tried to

eliminated again and then in 1973 tried

to eliminate it you know so this is not

a case of being paranoid this is a case

of there are real there were real

enemies but a lot has changed and Israel

has become very strong and the question

it should be asking itself is in a world

in which these moderate Arabs want to

make peace with us in this world in

which you know we have so much more

strength than the Palestinians if you

think about it before this and from the

West Bank there have been no Terror

attacks on Israel because that wall that

Ariel Chiron built which I supported at

the time it worked you know it it had

just the the the incidence of West Bank

terrorism went down to basically zero um

and so that piece of it is I think

without any question working the the

challenge is what's the long-term

sustainable strategy what you know where

does this go in terms of a post-war

settlement can you get the Arabs on

board to create some kind of governing

structure in Gaza and I think all that

becomes harder if you're just pummeling

and pummeling and pummeling and so

that's my view I I I get Israel's um

desire to completely eliminate uh the

the Hamas as a fighting force I just

think that the price you pay for those

last 5,000 militants might be quite high

and I'm not sure you get anything out of

it because what is Hamas it's the idea

of armed resistance you know if you kill

them you're you're saying there aren't

going to be any Palestinians who believe

in armed resistance particularly after

the last 6 months I'm not sure so just

for the purpose of the discussion some

push back and what this comes down to is

what is the proportionate response to

this type of attack or terrorism right

and this is almost an impossible thing

to

calibrate um I look historically at the

Japanese killed 2200 servicemen at Pearl

Harbor we go on to kill 3 million

Japanese including 100,000 in one night

and the terms are unconditional

surrender um al- Qaeda kills 2,800

Americans we go on to kill 3 to 400,000

people in

Afghanistan and Iraq and the terms are

unconditional surrender we killed 5

million Germans the terms are

unconditional

surrender when Israel is attacked at

least as severely as we were in any of

those instances why do they not have the

same rights to demand unconditional

surrender it's a great question and the

fundamental reason is the Palestinians

live within land that Israel controls

and are going to be there for the next

100 years in other words Israel has to

live with these people and has to figure

out a way to live with them in a way

that we didn't have to figure that out

with the the Germans we didn't have to

figure that out with the Japanese we

didn't have to figure that out with the

Taliban in Afghanistan these are all

8,000 Mi away different countries

different this is the problem for the

the Israelis but is that at the end of

the day unless you believe there is

going to be a wholesale Mass expulsion

of 5 a half million Palestinians into

Egypt and Jordan you got to live with

these people and does it make sense to

do that to do that in the context of

people who technically Israel isn't in

charge of right when you when you take

land the people who were on that land

become part part of your legal

responsibility so that's to me the

fundamental difference do you worry that

if Hamas is left in power power there's

any sort of

cizire that we're just going to wash

rinse and repeat that we're going to

have the same I mean the people in power

who uh we're calling for a ceasefire

we're calling for some sort of a truce

which we had October the 6 you leave him

aome power um haven't they just

explicitly said that they're committed

to rebuilding taking whatever Aid they

have and might take a year might take 10

years but doesn't this just happen again

unless we figure out a way to quite

frankly eliminate Hamas the way we

eliminated the Third Reich or we

demanded that the emperor in Japan

acknowledge that he wasn't a God I mean

aren't we just kicking the can down the

road and as painful as it might be as

much of a humanitarian crisis as it

might be isn't the only

solution uh to take out Hamas fully so I

I am very much of the view that hamash

should not govern Gaza after this and I

think that I've talked to people in in

inq and Egypt who have been working on

talking frankly to Hamas they believe

that that that is attainable that is

already attainable that Hamas does not

have the capacity to regain control uh

in in uh in Gaza particularly if you can

work out some security system post war

because that that becomes the key uh

unless you believe you're going to

literally you know kill every last Hamas

militant and there will never be another

one there are going to be some SC

scattered remnants of and and Scattered

violent resistance right so the question

is who governs Gaza and your ability to

set up some kind of government of Gaza

depends on the you know being able to

bring in the Arabs bring in the

Palestinian Authority but they're not

going to be willing to come in as

Israeli Stooges you know they're not

going to be willing to ride on the back

of Israeli tanks and govern a a a

restive Palestinian population so that's

that's why I think the dynamic at work

that's most important to ask about is

are you going to be able to get some

kind of stable governance in Gaza and

again that's why I think it's different

Japan has been governed by by itself for

5,000 years you you knew that you know

when you left Japan the Japanese would

would would would be governing

themselves whereas what we are trying to

do as you say is prevent uh the return

of Hamas and I really do believe that

Hamas in that sense is an idea they can

call it something else they'll call it

Islamic Jihad they'll call it and some

new uh term what we're trying to do is

to make sure that there isn't so much

radicalization in the population and in

the broader neighborhood that you can

get moderate Arabs to come in you can

get the Palestinian Authority to come in

create some structure of authority you

can then pass it off to that otherwise

Israel is going to be back in Gaza and

we know how that movie ended it's a it's

it what it takes from Israel in terms of

material in terms of men you know to to

run these places and what it takes in

terms of the fabric of a liberal

democracy to to run a you know a kind of

colonial occupation is very very tough

for Israel to to manage what do you

think a solution might look like I mean

they call you and I'm sure you get these

called and they say fared what is what

is what is a post truce world or a

post-war gaua look like who are the my

my sense of is still actually quite

popular among the populace my my

understanding is 7% if if anything has

gotten more popular because of this you

know 5 months of pummeling so you got to

find some way to bring I think to bring

some in some way the Palestinian

Authority from the West Bank has to be a

partner here you got to get the moderate

Arabs involved because those are the

people who are going to have credibility

on the ground um you've got to create

some kind of structure that gives people

hope that there's rapid reconstruction

of their of their houses you know a

return of normaly to their lives and

then I do think one you thing has come

out of this whole episode which is the

Israelis have always argued for a

demilitarized Palestinian state if you

know if those Israelis who have been

willing to to talk about a two-state

solution I believe that that argument

becomes pretty powerful now in other

words you can see why in non

demilitarized Palestinian state would be

an existential threat to Israel and so

if you think about you know if you say

to yourself look you got to have a

20-year Horizon here you're not going to

solve this in a 20-year Horizon the fact

that maybe you know I would argue in

some ways this whole business has made

um us all realize not Israel right now

but you've got to find some two-state

solution otherwise you're going to go on

with this you know occupation forever

and you can't as a democracy as a Jewish

liberal democracy

but you can also understand that look

you can't have a normal Palestinian

State because for whatever reason it is

infected with enough radicalism and in

in in enough violence right now that the

Israeli concerns of about security have

to be addressed and if you can you know

if you can imagine those twin forces

moving forward that you got to have a

political solution but there is not

going to be a normal state with a normal

military that I think provides outlines

for a possible solution because frankly

if you had a Palestinian State and they

have a flag and a national anthem and a

parliament or whatever they you know

they whatever however they choose to

govern themselves if they don't have an

army the worst thing they can do is you

know some kind of a terror attack and

that'll become by the way from as I said

the West Bank the wall has essentially

eradicated that that that threat you you

can do the same thing in Gaza you can

build effectively a a version of what

Chiron built and Israel will be largely

impregnable and in that circumstance

disentangling these two peoples from

their you know from this kind of joint

uh ex existence is probably the in the

short term the only

solution I love what rock uh Robert

Mamer said and the fog of war that to to

defeat an enemy you just you really have

to empathize with them walk in their

shoes and really try and understand

things from their frame and I look at

the objectives of Hamas or I try to

understand the objectives of Hamas on

October the 6 and it was and I'll

Outline Three you tell me if you agree

and where this leaves us but one is

killed

Jews uh they accomplished that second

worst day in history for for Jews uh two

they I think were hoping to bring

attention to their plight and I think

they've accomplished that I think

there's a lot of people in America who

when they look closely at Israel's

leadership do you know think Israel has

not draped itself in glory there are

huge bigots and racists on the knesset

over settlements I think there is a

greater understanding of an appreciation

for some of the suffering of the

residents of Gaza I think they've

achieved that and the third thing is I

think they were hoping to inspire a

multi-front war to see above number one

kill more Jews and that has not happened

I'm curious if if if I I'm surprised or

I'm I'm hopeful happy that and I think

it's the function of two carry strike

forces sitting offshore but I'm curious

if if you agree with those three and and

how they have played out yeah I agree

entirely with the with those three I

think you put it exactly right and I

think that's why uh in some ways I think

that there's a possible uh path to a

solution because it has made people

realize that the current situation is

unsustainable both for Palestinians and

Israelis the reason the third hasn't

happened is is a really interesting one

because what you're really referring to

is the fact that at one level Hamas is

part of a larger strategy of what what

the Iranians call an AIS of resistance

Hamas in Gaza Hezbollah in Lebanon the

Iraq the Iraqi Shia militias in Iraq the

Assad government uh in in Syria uh and

the houis in Yemen these are all

pro-iranian forces that Iran has

variously encouraged and funded and in

some ways this is part of that larger

struggle that that we were talking about

the Iranian mulas regard America and its

liberal Democratic ideology as you know

the kind of great cancer and they regard

Israel as a Outpost of Western liberal

democracy in the Middle East that's why

they call the America the great Satan

and they call Israel the little

Satan but they are the Iranians have

combined with this kind of religious

ideology the old persan tradition of

pragmatism and real politics so they're

aware that they are facing a formidable

foe in the United States and you talk to

Administration officials over the years

by the way and they'll say there's one

thing very interesting about Iran when

you push they are very cautious they

don't needlessly provoke they don't

needlessly get into uh you know into

conflicts so if you remember that moment

when the houthis fire a drone at

Americans in Jordan and they killed

three American servicemen that could

easily have blown up and and the

Iranians did everything they could to

Signal a they had not authorized this B

they did not intend to you know this was

not a step into in in an escalatory

cycle if if they had anything to do with

it Hezbollah nasella the head of

Hezbollah after the October 6th attack

made a very interesting speech where he

said you have our warm wishes you have

our you know we have you have our

ideological support but basically you're

on your own militarily we're not going

to get into this militarily so again you

see this very interesting

pragmatism that they have and I think

your point Scott is exactly right that

Biden did exactly the right thing in

sending those two carrier task forces it

just reminds them you know if you want

to escalate this can get very messy and

the US has incredible Firepower it's

just incredible it's sort of what's old

is new again if you look at the Battle

lines in Ukraine it looks very similar

to

197 and if you look at what your analogy

is a really interesting one agrarian

versus Naval power

I've heard in almost all the biographies

I've written on US presidents whenever

kind of quotequote gets real the

first question they ask is where are

carriers it's still really a battle of

the Seas and delivering violence and

Firepower uh via VIA you know uh blue

ocean waters I want to put forward a

thesis and I apologize I'm digressing a

bit here but I'm curious to get your

thoughts I went to UCLA and I had a lot

of close friends who are Iranian there

was a big influx into UCLA of Iranians

After the revolution

and I always thought the most American

kids in my fraternity were

Iranians they were hardworking really

into Commerce which is a Ply way of

saying they're capitalist and into money

generous really into education just the

most American kids that I thought at

UCLA that I met were Iranians and I'm

one of my mentors from me mogadam I've

always thought I've always held out this

hope that it feels to me like Iran and

the US culturally we would be great

allies did that when I go to Israel I

see a version of America and I always

thought if I went into Iran if Iranians

were like the Iranians I know here and

maybe that's self- selection bias do you

think there's ever a chance that Iran

and the us could become

allies well I think you're absolutely

right about the culture Iran is a is a

very worldly it's you know it's a it's a

trading culture it's been a trading

culture for 5,000 more modern than many

Arab Nations right with respect to how

it treats women very there's a bazari

culture you know when I've when you I

talk to people who negotiate with the

Iranians they say you know you always

feel like you're in the bazaar they're

always scanny they're always clever

about it love to trade the experience

you're describing I have an even more

Vivid version of that which is you know

when I used to go to Egypt and Iran when

I was always struck by was here you'd go

to Egypt where the government was

resolutely pro-american and the people

hated America and then you'd go to Iran

where the government hated America and

the people loved America when you went

when I went to Iran and you on the

streets of Teran they are incredibly

pro-american now this has been changed a

little bit by the last 10 years of

really ruinous sanctions and

particularly Trump's withdrawal from the

Iran deal which really meant that

Iranians you know the brunt of the

effect has been felt by ordinary

Iranians and they blame America for it

but if you go back 10 years it was

amazing how pro-american the people on

the street were so I think you know what

we have in Iran is a counterrevolution

if you put it in the terms of my book a

cultural reaction you know reactionary

forces that have hijacked the country

for 35 years now and it's a reminder

that history doesn't always move in a

you know in a positive direction for the

Iranians it's been going backwards for a

long time can that regime break the

problem is um somebody once said about

about leninism when these groups come to

power by Revolution they know one thing

how to prevent another Revolution

because they you know they're experts at

Revolution and this this regime is very

good at that I think they do a mixture

of

repression patronage and Escape valves

the repression we all know the patronage

is they spend a lot of money

particularly in the rural areas among

conservative people among older people

so they they do have a kind of

constituency and the Escape vals is they

have an election here or there you know

they do things that in some way let off

steam and by doing all three they have

managed to stay in power despite you

know frankly so many predictions that

they would leave so I I wish it were not

true but I think it's going to be very

hard to dislodge this

regime we'll be right

back in our remaining time I want to

talk about domestic um Affairs and I'm

terrible at sports analogies but this

doesn't that won't stop me I was with my

father a couple weekends ago and we used

to go to Rams games which were the

football team in Los Angeles and we'd

always lose to the Dallas Cowboys or the

Minnesota Vikings every year in the

playoffs and my dad would constantly say

there's nothing like the Rams to snatch

de feed from the jaws of Victory and I

kept thinking that when I saw him I was

thinking of how he used to say that to

me all the time and I thought that kind

of sums up perfectly how I feel about

America right now we have no reason to

lose we're we're just so incredibly

strong and prosperous right now and yet

it feels like like that's not going to

stop us quite frankly from it

all up so if someone from the White

House called you and said I'm worried we

about the snatch defeat from the jaws of

Victory and distinct if you want to talk

about the election but I'm not I think

it's bigger than

Trump what what do you think are the

social policies or the economic policies

or just the way we approach being

American that can save us from ourselves

save us from snatching defeat from the

jaws of

Victory so look I think Biden has been a

good president he has done one thing

that has been really important in

America we have for the last 30 or 40

years in America not had enough public

investment America has been the story of

America has been one of private

affluence and public squalor and Biden

with the infrastructure act with the IRA

with the chips act all of that is an

investment in America long-term

investment in America and I think that

that was much needed and a lot of it is

going to areas which have been left

behind you know I think one one

calculation was 2third of the money is

going to rural areas and two-thirds of

the jobs being created don't require a

college degree and that's that's really

good and that's the right direction to

go the thing that Biden is not I think

understanding enough is it's not just

about money it's about the sense that

these people have that their world has

gone away that their communities have

disappeared their faith has has uh has

crumbled you have to play in the

cultural Arena you and and you have to

play offense in the cultural Arena you

can't be playing defense and I think on

things like uh immigration on this whole

woke uh stuff Biden has to get out there

and he has to make clear that he's not

with all you know all this stuff the two

most successful left of center

politicians in the last 30 years in in

in the west were Bill Clinton and Tony

Blair and they both tood that if you

want to help people and you want to get

your your agenda through and you want to

get your ideas implemented you got to

reassure people that you're not some

crazy radical and it's all culture it's

not economics so my favorite example of

this is Bill Clinton comes out very

powerfully in favor of school uniforms

now the president of the United States

has almost nothing to do with State

education anyway it's a it's a state

government issue and he has really

nothing to do with what what what

clothes people wear at Public Schools

what he was doing was engaging in

symbolic politics to tell all those

people out there I'm not some crazy

hippie radical you know I believe in

what can be more Bourgeois what can be a

more mainstream than school uniforms

Blair would do similar kinds of things

you know you've got to realize that

people do get unsettled by all this

change and they get culturally unsettled

and you can't just you know you're not

going to be able to bribe them you've

got to engage at that cultural level

Biden should make a speech against the

woke agenda he should go out there and

basically declare National Emergency on

the border and say what you know we're

not going to and let the courts

challenge it that's not the point

Clinton had another great line he'd say

the American people don't always expect

you to succeed but they want to catch

you trying and Biden needs to be caught

trying on some of these issues to show

Americans where he is um I think if he

did that it's a powerful combination

you're never going to be wildly popular

but if you look at some of the guys who

managed to survive Justin Trudeau uh and

macron they all do this they combine

being kind of if you will tough on some

of these cultural issues with economic

opportunities for the poor yeah I'm

reminded of inspired a memory of when

Clinton I think he was somewhere in

Michigan or Russ belt State and he said

your jobs aren't coming back I'm not

going to lie to you and I think he

immediately got so much credit ability

among moderates like well finally

someone's going to be honest with us I

think even the I think even the union

bosses appreciated that what talk a

little bit

about what's happening on campuses or

any thoughts you have about reform if

any in higher

education look I think American

universities are amazing places let's

not again forget the big story we we

have the best universities in the world

they do amazing stuff particularly in

The Sciences but even other places we

you know the fundamental Advantage we

have over the rest of the world is other

countries Singapore South Korea they

teach people how to do well at tests we

teach people how to think and problem

solve that is a fundamentally different

way of approaching education it's a

deeply American way and we do it very

well now I think two things have

happened over the last 20 or 30 years

one of them is that you have had a

certain degree of the the you know the

young population has been getting more

leftwing for you know particularly on

cultural issues and things like that and

that's a real Trend that I don't pay too

much attention to that in the sense that

people forget in the early 1970s the

Harvard Crimson was writing editorials

in favor of Paul P it was writing

editorials arguing that the North

Vietnamese should win the Vietnam War

because they were the forces of of

progress and Liberation you know these

are 1920 year olds you know they've

often been radical they've often there

were a lot of maest at Yale when I was

there they're supposed to be pushing the

limits right that's the idea right

exactly what has changed and I think

what makes it much more cancerous is

this this building up of this um this

diver diversity equity and inclusion

apparatus and bureaucracy and I want to

be clear about one thing it's not that

all these people are bad many of them

are very good people they're they they

are right-minded they're trying to do

the right thing it's a good example of

incentives and institutions when you

create these large bureaucracies they

have a kind of self-perpetuating reason

to exist and to and to grow and what

that rests on is there are being

problems those problems being

highlighted those problems being

exacerbated and one of the things I

noticed on college campuses so I was at

went and then I served on the board you

know decades later between those two

periods mid 1980s when I was at Yale and

around you know 200 8 9 10 when I was

when I was on the board um what had

happened is you had this whole apparatus

of segregation that had built up because

you created you know African-American

house Latin American house Hillel uh

South Asian students African Americans

just you created this huge apparatus of

these these organizations and these

administrative uh officers whose almost

job it was to separate people reinforce

that separation uh emphasize all the you

know the problems the uh the the the you

know um the the lack of uh you know the

the kind of ways in which people felt

discriminated and what that ended up

being was it in sum total what you ended

up doing was creating a more segregated

more resentful more hostile campus than

than was necessary uh because you're

feeding these fires instead of saying

we're a campus about integration you

know what we really want to F is to see

the commonality in all of you and I

understand where you know as I say it

might have been well motivated but what

you have now created is a completely

balkanized campus where you have these

you know these groups that think of

themselves as victims this bureaucracy

that feeds that uh and every time they

there's a problem they the demand is

give us more money give us funding you

know so it reinforces the segregated

identities and I think this is a huge

problem and it's fundamentally illiberal

because we are not looking at human

beings as human beings anymore we're

looking at them based on ascriptive

identities of race ethnicity and

national origin which is fundamentally

opposed to the liberal project which

sees as Martin Luther King so

beautifully put it judges people by the

content of their character not the color

of their skin Fred zakari is the host of

n's Flagship International Affairs show

fed sakario GPS as well as a weekly

columnist for the Washington Post he is

the author of four New York Times

bestsellers including 10 lessons for a

post-pandemic world and his latest age

of revolutions progress and backlash

from 1600 to the presid he joins us from

his home in New York freed I always um

you're you're you're one of the few

reasons I turn on the television Premier

League games and I like to watch you for

whatever reason on the big screen in in

our home I think you're doing fantastic

work and and having a huge impact

appreciate your time as they say in the

talet from your lips to God's ears Scot

there you go for thanks

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man