Fareed Zakaria — Revolutions & Global Affairs | Prof G Conversations
Summary
TLDRIn a thought-provoking discussion, the host engages with a renowned guest on the pivotal revolutions that have shaped world history, emphasizing the Industrial Revolution's transformative impact on global economics and societal standards of living. The conversation delves into the current technological revolution, exploring its profound social and psychological implications. The discussion also addresses the cultural and political backlash triggered by rapid global changes, highlighting the challenges and potential paths forward in the context of American politics and international relations, including the complex dynamics between the US, China, Russia, and Iran.
Takeaways
- 💡 The Industrial Revolution is identified as the most transformative event in human history, causing a dramatic increase in average income and living standards.
- 📝 Fareed Zakaria's new book, 'Age of Revolutions', explores significant revolutions throughout history, including the economic, French, Industrial, and present-day revolutions like globalization, technology, identity, and geopolitics.
- 📰 Technological advancements have not only accelerated economic growth but also introduced a new digital economy, significantly influencing societal and psychological aspects of life.
- 🛠 The digital revolution has transitioned the world from a focus on physical assets to digital ones, changing how various sectors, including transportation and energy, operate.
- 🗣 AI's potential to multiply human cognitive capabilities raises questions about its impact on human identity and societal structures.
- 📚 Historical revolutions often lead to significant political and identity shifts, reflecting on current global and domestic political landscapes.
- 🌍 The backlash against rapid changes brought about by revolutions is a recurring theme, influencing current geopolitics and the rise of nationalist movements.
- 🖥 The liberal international order faces challenges from countries opposing Western values, with outcomes affecting global stability and power dynamics.
- 🛡 Fareed Zakaria discusses the importance of actively defending and promoting progress and individual liberty to ensure the continuation of a peaceful and prosperous international order.
- 🚦 Zakaria argues for the strategic necessity of maintaining the liberal international order, emphasizing the significance of willpower and leadership in navigating geopolitical tensions.
Q & A
What is the main argument presented in the book 'Age of Revolutions'?
-The main argument of the book is that significant technological and economic changes lead to identity and political revolutions, followed by a backlash. The author discusses how this pattern has played out through history, including the recent revolutions in economics, technology, identity, and geopolitics.
How does the Industrial Revolution compare to the technological advancements of the past century?
-The Industrial Revolution is considered a discontinuity in human history as it marked the first time humans were able to escape poverty and improve their standard of living on a sustained basis. In contrast, while the technological advancements of the past century have been dramatic, they have not shown the same level of economic growth described as 'going parabolic' in the way the Industrial Revolution did.
What are the social and psychological consequences of the digital revolution?
-The digital revolution has created a new economy and a new mental world, shifting from a world of atoms to one of bits and bytes. This shift has significant social and psychological consequences, including changes in how humans perceive themselves and interact with each other, as well as the potential for AI to multiply human cognitive abilities.
What is the author's view on the potential risks and benefits of AI?
-The author sees AI as having the potential to solve major problems like disease and global warming, which is fascinating. However, it also raises concerns about the implications for human identity and the potential for AI to replace human minds, leading to uncharted waters.
How does the author address the backlash to the recent revolutions in the book?
-The author argues that the current backlash is a cultural reaction to the dramatic changes brought about by the revolutions in economics, technology, identity, and geopolitics. This backlash is characterized by a resistance to the changes and a desire to return to a previous state of affairs.
What is the significance of the agrarian land power versus maritime trading power dynamic?
-The dynamic of agrarian land power versus maritime trading power is significant as it represents a recurring pattern of great power rivalry throughout history. The author suggests that the current tensions between China and the US can be seen in this context, with cultural and geopolitical aspects influencing the rivalry.
How does the author view the role of the United States in the current global order?
-The author views the United States as a dominant power with significant technological and economic advantages. However, the ability to maintain this position is contingent on the U.S. effectively navigating the current backlash and maintaining its commitment to the liberal international order.
What is the author's perspective on the rise of other nations like China and India?
-The author acknowledges the rise of nations like China and India, noting their scale and vibrant economies. He suggests that these nations, along with others, are becoming politically stable and culturally independent, leading to a world of middle powers that are not easily directed by any single superpower.
How does the author suggest the United States should navigate the current global landscape?
-The author suggests that the United States needs to effectively use diplomacy and leverage its strengths to navigate the current global landscape. This includes addressing internal dysfunction and presenting a unified front to handle challenges from rising powers and the backlash against recent revolutions.
What are the implications of the current conflict between Israel and Hamas, according to the author?
-The author sees the conflict as a complex issue where Israel has gone from an appropriate response to an overreaction. He raises concerns about the long-term strategy and the potential for further radicalization as a result of the conflict. The author suggests that a sustainable solution involves addressing the Israeli concerns of security while finding a way to create stable governance in Gaza.
What is the author's view on the potential for a two-state solution in Israel and Palestine?
-The author believes that a two-state solution is necessary but acknowledges the challenges, including the need for a demilitarized Palestinian state due to security concerns. He suggests that any solution will need to address the current radicalization and find a way to disentangle the two peoples.
Outlines
🌐 Global Peace and Economic Growth
The speaker discusses the unprecedented period of global peace and economic expansion in human history. They highlight the significant reduction in conflicts and the explosion of global economics and trade. The speaker attributes the dramatic rise in living standards to the Industrial Revolution, which lifted humanity out of poverty and set the stage for continuous improvement in living conditions over the past 250 years. They also touch on the impact of recent technological advancements and predict that the digital revolution will continue to transform the economy and society.
🚫 Addressing the AI Revolution and its Implications
The conversation shifts to the potential impact of AI on society. The speaker argues that while AI offers immense potential for solving complex problems like disease and climate change, it also poses challenges that need to be managed. They discuss the concept of 'kill switches' to control AI and the societal and psychological changes brought about by technological advancements. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the historical context of revolutions to navigate the current era of rapid change.
🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Cultural Backlash
The speaker delves into the geopolitical tensions and cultural backlash resulting from rapid technological and economic changes. They describe how these transformations have led to identity and political revolutions, with a particular focus on the current backlash against globalization, technology, and shifting cultural norms. The speaker expresses concern over the rise of reactionary forces and the potential for conflict, while also highlighting the importance of maintaining a liberal international order.
💡 The Role of Technology in Global Dominance
The speaker discusses the historical pattern where nations leading in technology tend to become dominant global powers. They point out that the United States, with its technological advancements and strong economy, is well-positioned to handle challenges from other nations like China and Russia. However, they also note that internal dysfunction and lack of coordinated effort could undermine this advantage. The speaker stresses the need for unity and strategic diplomacy in navigating global power dynamics.
📈 The Rise of the Rest and Shifts in World Order
The speaker examines the rise of nations outside the United States, such as China and India, and their impact on the world order. They note that while these countries are gaining strength and confidence, they are also becoming more culturally and politically independent. The speaker highlights the challenge of managing a world where no single superpower can dictate terms, and the importance of diplomacy in fostering collective action among these 'middle powers.'
🕊️ The Search for Stability in the Middle East
The speaker discusses the complex situation in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They argue that Israel's response to Hamas' actions may have been excessive and counterproductive, potentially radicalizing more Palestinians. The speaker suggests that a long-term sustainable strategy is needed, one that involves creating a stable governance structure in Gaza and addressing the root causes of conflict. They emphasize the importance of understanding the cultural and historical context to find a viable solution.
🤝 Cultural Empathy and the Path to Peace
The speaker reflects on the need for cultural empathy in resolving conflicts, using the Israeli-Palestinian situation as an example. They suggest that understanding the objectives and motivations of groups like Hamas is crucial for finding a path to peace. The speaker also discusses the potential for a two-state solution and the importance of demilitarizing the Palestinian state to ensure Israel's security. They highlight the role of moderate Arabs and the Palestinian Authority in creating a stable and peaceful future.
🎓 The State of Higher Education and Campus Culture
The speaker critiques the current state of higher education, particularly the focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. They argue that these efforts, while well-intentioned, have led to increased segregation and a more hostile campus environment. The speaker suggests that the emphasis on ascriptive identities is fundamentally opposed to the liberal project and calls for a renewed focus on integration and commonality among students.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Industrial Revolution
💡Globalization
💡Digital Revolution
💡Identity Revolution
💡Geopolitics
💡Backlash
💡Liberal International Order
💡Cultural Counterrevolution
💡AI Revolution
💡Great Power Peace
Highlights
The longest period of great power peace and the greatest explosion of global economics and trading in human history is being threatened by a potential return to the jungle of realpolitik.
The author's new book, 'Age of Revolutions: Progress and Backlash from 1600 to the Present', discusses pivotal revolutions that have shaped world history, including the economic, French, Industrial, and present-day revolutions in globalization, technology, identity, and geopolitics.
The Industrial Revolution is highlighted as the most transformative event in human history, lifting people out of poverty and raising living standards for over 250 years.
The digital revolution has created a new economy and mental world, with software eating the world and AI controlling software, leading to a potential paradigm shift in how we live and work.
The social and psychological consequences of technological changes are as significant as the economic effects, altering our conceptions of human identity and potential.
The AI Revolution could multiply human cognitive abilities, leading to dramatic changes in problem-solving capabilities, but also raises concerns about uncharted territories.
The current backlash against dramatic technological and economic changes is leading to identity and political revolutions, with societies grappling with cultural reactions.
The tension between land and maritime powers is still relevant today, with the US and China representing a modern version of this dynamic.
The US must demonstrate willpower and staying power to maintain its position as a global leader and uphold the liberal international order.
The rise of the rest, including nations like China and India, is shifting the world order, with these countries gaining strength, confidence, and independence.
The US continues to lead in technology and has significant economic and military advantages, but internal dysfunction threatens its ability to effectively utilize these strengths.
The situation in Israel and Gaza is a complex issue of proportionate response and long-term sustainable strategy, with Israel's actions potentially leading to further radicalization.
A potential solution for Gaza involves a stable governance structure without a military, addressing Israeli security concerns while providing a path for Palestinian self-determination.
The cultural and political divide in the US is a significant challenge, with the need for leadership that addresses both economic opportunities and cultural anxieties.
American universities excel at teaching critical thinking and problem-solving, but have seen a rise in segregated and divisive identity politics that undermine the liberal education project.
The Biden administration has made significant public investments in America, but needs to engage more in cultural issues and reassure the public that it is not aligned with radical agendas.
The potential for cultural and ideological alignment between Iran and the US exists, but the current regime in Iran is deeply entrenched and resistant to change.
The key to avoiding self-inflicted defeat lies in addressing both economic and cultural challenges, with a focus on integration and shared American values.
Transcripts
we set up this system where you have a
much you know it's the longest period of
great power peace in human history um
it's the greatest explosion of global
economics and trading in human history
the lowest number of conflicts uh in you
know in human history is that all going
to go away because we're going to allow
a return to the Jungle of real
[Music]
politic fared where does this podcast
find you I'm in New York at my at my
house oh nice uh so let's bust right
into it your new book age of revolutions
progress and backlash from 1600 to the
president walks The Reader through
pivotal revolutions that have shaped
world history the economic Revolution
the French Revolution the Industrial
Revolution and four present day
revolutions globalization technology
identity and
geopolitics let's start with the past
revolutions stack rank them in order of
how they changed their trajectory of
History what if you were going to write
a book on one of them which one would it
be it would be the Industrial Revolution
the Industrial Revolution changed the
world you can see this in a very simple
graph if you look at a graph of per
capita income average income of human
beings in the world uh over the last
2,000 years it's basically a flatline
for
1,750 of those years and then sometime
around the 18th century it starts to go
up and then it's like a hockey stick
graph it just goes way up we go roughly
speaking from a couple hundred per
capita income per person to 5,000 6,000
7,000 and that dramatic rise is
basically because of the Industrial
Revolution so if you ask yourself what
is the single thing that has changed the
course of human history the most
discontinuous feature of human life it
is the Industrial Revolution where
finally human beings were able to get
themselves out of poverty out of real
grinding medieval poverty and
almost on a sustained basis keep raising
their standards of living for 250 years
but hasn't technology their technology
Revolution sort of hockey sticked the
hockey stick and that is what happened
in those previous you know the pr the
previous Century has gone parabolic I
think in the last 50 years no the
microprocessor
vaccines um internal combustion engines
hasn't it even gotten more parabolic in
the last four or five decades so you
know the data does not show um economic
growth going parabolic in that way as
you know you've seen some Optics of
productivity and you've seen um rises in
you know in in certainly the US for
example has done very well over the last
30 years but part of it is I think that
that was starting from such a low base
you know you you starting with people
who are barely having one meal a day uh
so I think you haven't seen quite that
in the data but I agree with you and
that's part of what I try to explain in
the book that the the nature of the
digital Revolution if we can just call
it that for a moment is that it has
created a whole new economy and a whole
new mental you know world for us uh Mark
Andre's famous uh blog post where he
talks about software eating the world
gets it exactly right the world used to
be run it was a world of atoms and what
happened is the the digital Revolution
came and it created a world of bits and
bites that now control that those atoms
so actually the internal combustion
engine is is kind of irrelevant now what
a car is becoming is software on Wheels
and it's the software that controls that
and now what's going to happen is you're
going to have ai that controls the
software and those things become param
and and the point I'm trying to make in
the book is not so much about the
economic effect it's the sort of Social
and psychological consequences of these
changes which you know and care a lot
about it is mindblowing in every way to
think about that you know human beings
have never had the power to multiply
their minds the way that AI is going to
be able to allow them to do what does
that do to our conceptions of who we are
as human beings and what does history
tell us about there's a lot of
catastrophizing around Ai and I can't
I'm trying to sort through how much of
his techn narcissism where people like
to think that the singular the single
point of failure that's going to or
success that's going to destroy or save
Humanity or if we should really be
worried about it if as you look through
history and these revolutions if we're
going through an AI Revolution what can
we learn from the past
revolutions I share your skepticism that
that it's going to like end human
existence it's going to extinguish the
the the universe that stuff has always
struck me as you know kind of
catastrophizing and you can see how it
has the potential but you know human
beings at the end of the day I had to
put it in simple terms you can pull the
plug you can create a kill switch you
can create for example a simple break
between the ability of AI and AI or
Opera machines to access energy at the
end of the day they need energy to run
and so you know now you could say those
kill switches become increasingly
expensive uh if you're running your
whole society and your whole economy and
your whole cities on AI and then you
suddenly say the only you know the the
bre is going to be that you lose the
access to energy well maybe you you then
lose access to the AI That's running
everything you know your planes your
traffic lights everything like that but
there is a kill switch the effect I
think that is most likely to happen is
exactly what's happened with this
digital Revolution but on steroids
because I do think that that that piece
of this is new we until now we have
always been able to use technology as a
tool you know the Industrial Revolution
was fundamentally an energy Revolution
we were able to make machines that could
do the work of thousands of humans
thousands of horses that's why we talk
about horsepower it was about replacing
horses and a steam engine by the end
could replace thousands of horses it
would do was able to do the work so the
AI Revolution I think allows you to
replace mines it allows you to replace
thousands of Mines because one computer
one AI program can do what thousands of
mins used to do that is mind blowing and
that's the part I I'm fascinated by in
terms of the potential of what it can do
in terms of solving problems like
disease and global warming uh but it's
also kind of scary we we are entering
unchartered
Waters so some revolutions caused
tremendous productivity some revolutions
end in World War when now now do
politics when you look at examining
these different revolutions and looking
at the state of American politics or let
me go broad the state of geop politics
in
2024 what lessons from history do you
glean and what does it say about the
situation we're in right now so the
central argument of the book is every
time you have these massive changes in
technology and and economics propelling
some societies for dramatically you get
two things happen you get an identity
and a political revolution the identity
Revolution because you start to think of
yourself differently um you know that
starts with the Dutch the Dutch become
the richest country in Europe but but
most importantly they start to think of
themselves differently they're no longer
part of the Spanish Empire they're Dutch
they break away they're no longer part
of the Catholic world they're Protestant
they break away and those identity
revolutions create a political
revolution that's point one and point
two is you always have a backlash and
what we are living through right now is
the backlash to one of the most dramatic
perhaps the most dramatic revolutions
that we've had as you said these four
revolutions uh taking place almost
simultaneous iously economics in with
globalization technology with
information uh identity and geopolitics
all happening so we are living through
the the the backlash the cultural
backlash to all of this how we navigate
that backlash is going to determine
where we end up here you know are we
going to get overwhelmed by it are we
going to sort of accept the the the
trumps and brexits and Victor orbons of
the world who say stop the train I want
to get off uh the real backlash in a
sense comes from Russia and China where
they say and Iran to a certain extent
where they're all saying we don't want
any of this world we you know we believe
that this Western modernity Western
liberal democracy is ruining the world
the Western liberal order is corrupt and
they're fighting back and if for example
Russia wins in Ukraine what will that do
to that liberal International order
that's rested on the premise that you
can't you can't just take another
another country's territory by force so
I I don't think that there is a future
out there that I can predict for you
because it depends on our actions but
what I the lesson I came from is I I
drew from it is you are you aren't going
to be able to move forward you are not
going you know the forces of progress
and acceleration and individual liberty
don't win by themselves you know it's
all going to happen naturally it's you
can't be fatalistic about this and say
oh time is on our side you know Steve
Pinker tells me it's all going to work
out in the end no you got to fight for
it you've got you got to really get in
there and fight back the forces of
reaction and
counterrevolution you write in the book
that throughout history there's often a
pattern of great power rivalry in which
an agrarian land power is pitted against
a maritime trading power uh is this
still the case today it sounds like
you're you're describing the the tension
between China and the US am I to say
more about that yes both Russia and
China in some ways are fundamentally
landow though China has a very large
coast and you know kind of functions in
both ways um and they're both launching
this very spirited Campa and it's not
just a geopolitical balancing one of the
things that I realized when reading more
and more of what Putin and she are
saying it's a cultural balancing they
really believe that these ideas of
Western liberal democracy are
destabilizing destabilizing their
societies destabilizing their basis for
power you know Putin goes on these rants
about how you know the the the the
United States is turning into the
sexual fantasy land or trans rights and
gay rights uh you know he came out one
day in favor of JK Rowling against the
people who were cancelling her xiin ping
talks a lot about how he wants women
back in the kitchen you know assuming
their traditional roles so there's a lot
of here a lot here that's about cultural
reaction and cultural
counterrevolution but the geopolitical
piece of it is very important because
they regard the liberal International
order that the US has set up and and run
as one where they they don't get to to
do whatever they want right there are
constraints There Are Rules there are
norms and they're going to push they're
going to keep pushing and we have to
figure out do we have the uh The
Willpower to fight back we have the
capacity Scott if you looking at the
Cold War the the Coalition against a
raid against the Soviet Union comprised
Say by 1970 it was about probably 40% of
GDP of global GDP um today the Coalition
that is supporting Ukraine against
Russia is 60% of global GDP if you throw
in India and a few others on the on the
fence you'd get to about 70% of global
GDP the question is do we have the
willpower the staying power and most
importantly in that regard is does the
leader of the west of the of the Free
World have that staying power uh um and
do we want to fight that do we
understand the stakes and the problem I
have with Trump on International Affairs
is I really don't think he understands
the stakes that we are up against this
challenge of what is this order that
we've built since 1945 That's Unique in
in human history you know nobody before
that it's like the jungle of real
politic for thousands of years and then
we set up this system where you have a
much you know it's the longest period of
great power peace in human history um
the greatest explosion of global
economics and trading in human history
the lowest number of conflicts uh in ter
you know in human history is that all
going to go away because we're going to
allow a return to the Jungle of real
politic it's interesting as you talk
about pushing back and it strikes me I
love what you're saying we kind of have
the muscle it's the question of whether
we have the mentality or the will
because I was reading that as a
percentage of our GDP our military
spending is actually quite low relative
to torically but yet just whatever it is
3% of our GDP is 800 billion which is
greater than the next 10 economies
combined I mean we have the resources
right it it feels as if the great threat
and this is a thesis and you push back
or tell me that you know if America was
a horror movie The call is coming from
inside of the house it's that we don't
like each other we can we can battle any
external threat we just can't we have
the muscle I'm just not sure we have the
coordination or we or we're starting to
self harm thises does that make any
sense 100% right think about it this way
Scott you know one of the points in the
book is that the country that leads in
technology always ends up being the
dominant power so it's Netherlands in
the in the 17th century it's Britain by
the end of the 18th century it's the
United States in the 20th century in the
21st century the United States leads in
technology like it has never LED before
like no country in the world has ever
LED before if you look at the world of
of information revolution biotech
nanotech AI whatever you want the US is
so far ahead in the lead those seven or
eight companies that that you know are
top technology companies the market cap
of those companies is larger than the
market cap of the entire countries of
Britain France Germany and Canada put
together Apple's market cap alone is
larger than the stock market
capitalization of the total country of
Germany we make more energy than anybody
in the world we make more oil than Saudi
Arabia we make more natural gas than
Qatar our banks are the dominant banks
in the world the dollar is the dominant
currency in the world and unlike any
other rich country in the world we are
demographically vibrant because of
immigration every other rich country in
the world is declining in population
they're basically turning into Florida
as retirement communities we are vibrant
you put all that together and you say
could could we handle China of course we
can handle China could we handle Russia
of course we could it's the problem is
our our our dysfunction within you know
that's taking this amazing hand of cards
and making us play it badly you
described the phenomena you call the
rise of the rest which examines how
Nations outside of the US have gained
strength and confidence which nations
are you paying the most attention to and
and how have they kind of shifted the
world order so when I wrote that book uh
obviously the one I focused on most was
China um which was Rising fast and I you
could see that uh even then um and I
talked about it as the inevitable
Challenger um I think India is probably
the the next most important one I know
India is having a kind of moment in the
Sun but it it's basically Justified uh
it's because there's no other country
that has the scale that China has and
India has that scale and it has an
incredibly vibrant economy it's growing
from a very slow small base people don't
right don't completely understand when
they sort of talk about India as the
next China so the Chinese economy is
still 4 and a half times bigger than the
Indian economy um and so it's India is
going to have to take a take a while to
catch up but it is uh on that scale but
then there are you know under those two
there's Indonesia there's Brazil there's
Nigeria there's South Africa and the
most interesting the feature of all of
these uh Scott is that they're
becoming politically stable and
economically uh Dynamic enough that
they're getting culturally and
politically independent and proud so you
can't boss them around anymore that's
the Dilemma of the world we're in in
terms of kind of management if you will
it's not that there is uh you know uh a
superpower that can truly rival the
United States there isn't and it's not
that the US has declined I mean we are
still 25% of global GDP you know what we
were in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was was
elected 25 % of global GDP it's amazing
with all this change our share of the
world economy has stayed the same it's
the Europeans and the Japanese that have
gone down the losers but it's a world of
up middle Powers if you want want to put
it that way uh you know that aren't
going to be taking directions from
Washington and how to navigate a world
like that how to Corral these countries
to some collective action that that's
you know that's where the skill of
diplomacy becomes really important
because you don't have you don't quite
have the muscle you had in the past you
got to use words as much as
muscle stay with
us the last time we spoke we spoke the
week after October the 7th so it's been
five months and by the way I was saying
off mic the video U or the video of the
podcast we did with you got I think 1.2
or 1.4 million views and I was I was
ribbing you that more people watched you
on this podcast than watch any CNN show
which is a different talk show about how
the world of media is changing but what
in the last 5 months in terms of the war
in Gaza what give us a sense for the
state of play how it's
unfolded and what has surprised you and
where do you think it's headed sure so I
mean in terms of these broad systemic
things that we're talking about it's
it's worth putting this in perspective
this is largely a second order uh uh
issue it's a it's it's a sideshow
compared to the big forces that are
shaping the world uh Israel is the
dominant power in the Middle East and
Will Remain the dominant power in the
Middle East because it is the
technologically most advanced country it
is politically the mo the most potent it
hasn't the military that none of these
other countries can match so you put all
that together and Israel is not just
there to stay but it's there to be the
dominant player
now is it handling this this challenge
appropriately my view they went from an
appropriate response to an overreaction
and I think I in this regard basically
share the Biden administration's view
that they've just gone too far uh Donald
Rumsfeld used to have a rule which he
said which I wish he had followed
himself after the Iraq War but when he
was Secretary of Defense in the war on
terror he would say are we creating more
terrorists than we are killing by our
actions and I think about that when I
think about Israel now you know it's
killed about 15,000 Hamas militants by
by their own by the Israeli government's
own count they've killed about 30 odd
thousand Palestinian civilians they've
destroyed about 60% of the buildings in
in uh in in Gaza and if they do Rafa
it'll probably be worse because those
these people have now these one and a
half million people have now been
displaced three
times and my question is are you you
know are you is it worth the next you
know this last 5,000 Hamas militants
given the costs you are generating in
terms of the radicalization of
Palestinians the radicalization of the
Arab Street I don't think they've got
the balance right uh right now frankly
we got the bounce wrong after 9/11 so I
understand it there's a lot of rage
there's a lot of outrage in this
particularly for Israel a feeling of um
existential vulnerability that I don't
think we appre sh in I mean this is a
country that from the day it was founded
its neighbors tried to eliminate it and
then 20 years later in ' 67 tried to
eliminated again and then in 1973 tried
to eliminate it you know so this is not
a case of being paranoid this is a case
of there are real there were real
enemies but a lot has changed and Israel
has become very strong and the question
it should be asking itself is in a world
in which these moderate Arabs want to
make peace with us in this world in
which you know we have so much more
strength than the Palestinians if you
think about it before this and from the
West Bank there have been no Terror
attacks on Israel because that wall that
Ariel Chiron built which I supported at
the time it worked you know it it had
just the the the incidence of West Bank
terrorism went down to basically zero um
and so that piece of it is I think
without any question working the the
challenge is what's the long-term
sustainable strategy what you know where
does this go in terms of a post-war
settlement can you get the Arabs on
board to create some kind of governing
structure in Gaza and I think all that
becomes harder if you're just pummeling
and pummeling and pummeling and so
that's my view I I I get Israel's um
desire to completely eliminate uh the
the Hamas as a fighting force I just
think that the price you pay for those
last 5,000 militants might be quite high
and I'm not sure you get anything out of
it because what is Hamas it's the idea
of armed resistance you know if you kill
them you're you're saying there aren't
going to be any Palestinians who believe
in armed resistance particularly after
the last 6 months I'm not sure so just
for the purpose of the discussion some
push back and what this comes down to is
what is the proportionate response to
this type of attack or terrorism right
and this is almost an impossible thing
to
calibrate um I look historically at the
Japanese killed 2200 servicemen at Pearl
Harbor we go on to kill 3 million
Japanese including 100,000 in one night
and the terms are unconditional
surrender um al- Qaeda kills 2,800
Americans we go on to kill 3 to 400,000
people in
Afghanistan and Iraq and the terms are
unconditional surrender we killed 5
million Germans the terms are
unconditional
surrender when Israel is attacked at
least as severely as we were in any of
those instances why do they not have the
same rights to demand unconditional
surrender it's a great question and the
fundamental reason is the Palestinians
live within land that Israel controls
and are going to be there for the next
100 years in other words Israel has to
live with these people and has to figure
out a way to live with them in a way
that we didn't have to figure that out
with the the Germans we didn't have to
figure that out with the Japanese we
didn't have to figure that out with the
Taliban in Afghanistan these are all
8,000 Mi away different countries
different this is the problem for the
the Israelis but is that at the end of
the day unless you believe there is
going to be a wholesale Mass expulsion
of 5 a half million Palestinians into
Egypt and Jordan you got to live with
these people and does it make sense to
do that to do that in the context of
people who technically Israel isn't in
charge of right when you when you take
land the people who were on that land
become part part of your legal
responsibility so that's to me the
fundamental difference do you worry that
if Hamas is left in power power there's
any sort of
cizire that we're just going to wash
rinse and repeat that we're going to
have the same I mean the people in power
who uh we're calling for a ceasefire
we're calling for some sort of a truce
which we had October the 6 you leave him
aome power um haven't they just
explicitly said that they're committed
to rebuilding taking whatever Aid they
have and might take a year might take 10
years but doesn't this just happen again
unless we figure out a way to quite
frankly eliminate Hamas the way we
eliminated the Third Reich or we
demanded that the emperor in Japan
acknowledge that he wasn't a God I mean
aren't we just kicking the can down the
road and as painful as it might be as
much of a humanitarian crisis as it
might be isn't the only
solution uh to take out Hamas fully so I
I am very much of the view that hamash
should not govern Gaza after this and I
think that I've talked to people in in
inq and Egypt who have been working on
talking frankly to Hamas they believe
that that that is attainable that is
already attainable that Hamas does not
have the capacity to regain control uh
in in uh in Gaza particularly if you can
work out some security system post war
because that that becomes the key uh
unless you believe you're going to
literally you know kill every last Hamas
militant and there will never be another
one there are going to be some SC
scattered remnants of and and Scattered
violent resistance right so the question
is who governs Gaza and your ability to
set up some kind of government of Gaza
depends on the you know being able to
bring in the Arabs bring in the
Palestinian Authority but they're not
going to be willing to come in as
Israeli Stooges you know they're not
going to be willing to ride on the back
of Israeli tanks and govern a a a
restive Palestinian population so that's
that's why I think the dynamic at work
that's most important to ask about is
are you going to be able to get some
kind of stable governance in Gaza and
again that's why I think it's different
Japan has been governed by by itself for
5,000 years you you knew that you know
when you left Japan the Japanese would
would would would be governing
themselves whereas what we are trying to
do as you say is prevent uh the return
of Hamas and I really do believe that
Hamas in that sense is an idea they can
call it something else they'll call it
Islamic Jihad they'll call it and some
new uh term what we're trying to do is
to make sure that there isn't so much
radicalization in the population and in
the broader neighborhood that you can
get moderate Arabs to come in you can
get the Palestinian Authority to come in
create some structure of authority you
can then pass it off to that otherwise
Israel is going to be back in Gaza and
we know how that movie ended it's a it's
it what it takes from Israel in terms of
material in terms of men you know to to
run these places and what it takes in
terms of the fabric of a liberal
democracy to to run a you know a kind of
colonial occupation is very very tough
for Israel to to manage what do you
think a solution might look like I mean
they call you and I'm sure you get these
called and they say fared what is what
is what is a post truce world or a
post-war gaua look like who are the my
my sense of is still actually quite
popular among the populace my my
understanding is 7% if if anything has
gotten more popular because of this you
know 5 months of pummeling so you got to
find some way to bring I think to bring
some in some way the Palestinian
Authority from the West Bank has to be a
partner here you got to get the moderate
Arabs involved because those are the
people who are going to have credibility
on the ground um you've got to create
some kind of structure that gives people
hope that there's rapid reconstruction
of their of their houses you know a
return of normaly to their lives and
then I do think one you thing has come
out of this whole episode which is the
Israelis have always argued for a
demilitarized Palestinian state if you
know if those Israelis who have been
willing to to talk about a two-state
solution I believe that that argument
becomes pretty powerful now in other
words you can see why in non
demilitarized Palestinian state would be
an existential threat to Israel and so
if you think about you know if you say
to yourself look you got to have a
20-year Horizon here you're not going to
solve this in a 20-year Horizon the fact
that maybe you know I would argue in
some ways this whole business has made
um us all realize not Israel right now
but you've got to find some two-state
solution otherwise you're going to go on
with this you know occupation forever
and you can't as a democracy as a Jewish
liberal democracy
but you can also understand that look
you can't have a normal Palestinian
State because for whatever reason it is
infected with enough radicalism and in
in in enough violence right now that the
Israeli concerns of about security have
to be addressed and if you can you know
if you can imagine those twin forces
moving forward that you got to have a
political solution but there is not
going to be a normal state with a normal
military that I think provides outlines
for a possible solution because frankly
if you had a Palestinian State and they
have a flag and a national anthem and a
parliament or whatever they you know
they whatever however they choose to
govern themselves if they don't have an
army the worst thing they can do is you
know some kind of a terror attack and
that'll become by the way from as I said
the West Bank the wall has essentially
eradicated that that that threat you you
can do the same thing in Gaza you can
build effectively a a version of what
Chiron built and Israel will be largely
impregnable and in that circumstance
disentangling these two peoples from
their you know from this kind of joint
uh ex existence is probably the in the
short term the only
solution I love what rock uh Robert
Mamer said and the fog of war that to to
defeat an enemy you just you really have
to empathize with them walk in their
shoes and really try and understand
things from their frame and I look at
the objectives of Hamas or I try to
understand the objectives of Hamas on
October the 6 and it was and I'll
Outline Three you tell me if you agree
and where this leaves us but one is
killed
Jews uh they accomplished that second
worst day in history for for Jews uh two
they I think were hoping to bring
attention to their plight and I think
they've accomplished that I think
there's a lot of people in America who
when they look closely at Israel's
leadership do you know think Israel has
not draped itself in glory there are
huge bigots and racists on the knesset
over settlements I think there is a
greater understanding of an appreciation
for some of the suffering of the
residents of Gaza I think they've
achieved that and the third thing is I
think they were hoping to inspire a
multi-front war to see above number one
kill more Jews and that has not happened
I'm curious if if if I I'm surprised or
I'm I'm hopeful happy that and I think
it's the function of two carry strike
forces sitting offshore but I'm curious
if if you agree with those three and and
how they have played out yeah I agree
entirely with the with those three I
think you put it exactly right and I
think that's why uh in some ways I think
that there's a possible uh path to a
solution because it has made people
realize that the current situation is
unsustainable both for Palestinians and
Israelis the reason the third hasn't
happened is is a really interesting one
because what you're really referring to
is the fact that at one level Hamas is
part of a larger strategy of what what
the Iranians call an AIS of resistance
Hamas in Gaza Hezbollah in Lebanon the
Iraq the Iraqi Shia militias in Iraq the
Assad government uh in in Syria uh and
the houis in Yemen these are all
pro-iranian forces that Iran has
variously encouraged and funded and in
some ways this is part of that larger
struggle that that we were talking about
the Iranian mulas regard America and its
liberal Democratic ideology as you know
the kind of great cancer and they regard
Israel as a Outpost of Western liberal
democracy in the Middle East that's why
they call the America the great Satan
and they call Israel the little
Satan but they are the Iranians have
combined with this kind of religious
ideology the old persan tradition of
pragmatism and real politics so they're
aware that they are facing a formidable
foe in the United States and you talk to
Administration officials over the years
by the way and they'll say there's one
thing very interesting about Iran when
you push they are very cautious they
don't needlessly provoke they don't
needlessly get into uh you know into
conflicts so if you remember that moment
when the houthis fire a drone at
Americans in Jordan and they killed
three American servicemen that could
easily have blown up and and the
Iranians did everything they could to
Signal a they had not authorized this B
they did not intend to you know this was
not a step into in in an escalatory
cycle if if they had anything to do with
it Hezbollah nasella the head of
Hezbollah after the October 6th attack
made a very interesting speech where he
said you have our warm wishes you have
our you know we have you have our
ideological support but basically you're
on your own militarily we're not going
to get into this militarily so again you
see this very interesting
pragmatism that they have and I think
your point Scott is exactly right that
Biden did exactly the right thing in
sending those two carrier task forces it
just reminds them you know if you want
to escalate this can get very messy and
the US has incredible Firepower it's
just incredible it's sort of what's old
is new again if you look at the Battle
lines in Ukraine it looks very similar
to
197 and if you look at what your analogy
is a really interesting one agrarian
versus Naval power
I've heard in almost all the biographies
I've written on US presidents whenever
kind of quotequote gets real the
first question they ask is where are
carriers it's still really a battle of
the Seas and delivering violence and
Firepower uh via VIA you know uh blue
ocean waters I want to put forward a
thesis and I apologize I'm digressing a
bit here but I'm curious to get your
thoughts I went to UCLA and I had a lot
of close friends who are Iranian there
was a big influx into UCLA of Iranians
After the revolution
and I always thought the most American
kids in my fraternity were
Iranians they were hardworking really
into Commerce which is a Ply way of
saying they're capitalist and into money
generous really into education just the
most American kids that I thought at
UCLA that I met were Iranians and I'm
one of my mentors from me mogadam I've
always thought I've always held out this
hope that it feels to me like Iran and
the US culturally we would be great
allies did that when I go to Israel I
see a version of America and I always
thought if I went into Iran if Iranians
were like the Iranians I know here and
maybe that's self- selection bias do you
think there's ever a chance that Iran
and the us could become
allies well I think you're absolutely
right about the culture Iran is a is a
very worldly it's you know it's a it's a
trading culture it's been a trading
culture for 5,000 more modern than many
Arab Nations right with respect to how
it treats women very there's a bazari
culture you know when I've when you I
talk to people who negotiate with the
Iranians they say you know you always
feel like you're in the bazaar they're
always scanny they're always clever
about it love to trade the experience
you're describing I have an even more
Vivid version of that which is you know
when I used to go to Egypt and Iran when
I was always struck by was here you'd go
to Egypt where the government was
resolutely pro-american and the people
hated America and then you'd go to Iran
where the government hated America and
the people loved America when you went
when I went to Iran and you on the
streets of Teran they are incredibly
pro-american now this has been changed a
little bit by the last 10 years of
really ruinous sanctions and
particularly Trump's withdrawal from the
Iran deal which really meant that
Iranians you know the brunt of the
effect has been felt by ordinary
Iranians and they blame America for it
but if you go back 10 years it was
amazing how pro-american the people on
the street were so I think you know what
we have in Iran is a counterrevolution
if you put it in the terms of my book a
cultural reaction you know reactionary
forces that have hijacked the country
for 35 years now and it's a reminder
that history doesn't always move in a
you know in a positive direction for the
Iranians it's been going backwards for a
long time can that regime break the
problem is um somebody once said about
about leninism when these groups come to
power by Revolution they know one thing
how to prevent another Revolution
because they you know they're experts at
Revolution and this this regime is very
good at that I think they do a mixture
of
repression patronage and Escape valves
the repression we all know the patronage
is they spend a lot of money
particularly in the rural areas among
conservative people among older people
so they they do have a kind of
constituency and the Escape vals is they
have an election here or there you know
they do things that in some way let off
steam and by doing all three they have
managed to stay in power despite you
know frankly so many predictions that
they would leave so I I wish it were not
true but I think it's going to be very
hard to dislodge this
regime we'll be right
back in our remaining time I want to
talk about domestic um Affairs and I'm
terrible at sports analogies but this
doesn't that won't stop me I was with my
father a couple weekends ago and we used
to go to Rams games which were the
football team in Los Angeles and we'd
always lose to the Dallas Cowboys or the
Minnesota Vikings every year in the
playoffs and my dad would constantly say
there's nothing like the Rams to snatch
de feed from the jaws of Victory and I
kept thinking that when I saw him I was
thinking of how he used to say that to
me all the time and I thought that kind
of sums up perfectly how I feel about
America right now we have no reason to
lose we're we're just so incredibly
strong and prosperous right now and yet
it feels like like that's not going to
stop us quite frankly from it
all up so if someone from the White
House called you and said I'm worried we
about the snatch defeat from the jaws of
Victory and distinct if you want to talk
about the election but I'm not I think
it's bigger than
Trump what what do you think are the
social policies or the economic policies
or just the way we approach being
American that can save us from ourselves
save us from snatching defeat from the
jaws of
Victory so look I think Biden has been a
good president he has done one thing
that has been really important in
America we have for the last 30 or 40
years in America not had enough public
investment America has been the story of
America has been one of private
affluence and public squalor and Biden
with the infrastructure act with the IRA
with the chips act all of that is an
investment in America long-term
investment in America and I think that
that was much needed and a lot of it is
going to areas which have been left
behind you know I think one one
calculation was 2third of the money is
going to rural areas and two-thirds of
the jobs being created don't require a
college degree and that's that's really
good and that's the right direction to
go the thing that Biden is not I think
understanding enough is it's not just
about money it's about the sense that
these people have that their world has
gone away that their communities have
disappeared their faith has has uh has
crumbled you have to play in the
cultural Arena you and and you have to
play offense in the cultural Arena you
can't be playing defense and I think on
things like uh immigration on this whole
woke uh stuff Biden has to get out there
and he has to make clear that he's not
with all you know all this stuff the two
most successful left of center
politicians in the last 30 years in in
in the west were Bill Clinton and Tony
Blair and they both tood that if you
want to help people and you want to get
your your agenda through and you want to
get your ideas implemented you got to
reassure people that you're not some
crazy radical and it's all culture it's
not economics so my favorite example of
this is Bill Clinton comes out very
powerfully in favor of school uniforms
now the president of the United States
has almost nothing to do with State
education anyway it's a it's a state
government issue and he has really
nothing to do with what what what
clothes people wear at Public Schools
what he was doing was engaging in
symbolic politics to tell all those
people out there I'm not some crazy
hippie radical you know I believe in
what can be more Bourgeois what can be a
more mainstream than school uniforms
Blair would do similar kinds of things
you know you've got to realize that
people do get unsettled by all this
change and they get culturally unsettled
and you can't just you know you're not
going to be able to bribe them you've
got to engage at that cultural level
Biden should make a speech against the
woke agenda he should go out there and
basically declare National Emergency on
the border and say what you know we're
not going to and let the courts
challenge it that's not the point
Clinton had another great line he'd say
the American people don't always expect
you to succeed but they want to catch
you trying and Biden needs to be caught
trying on some of these issues to show
Americans where he is um I think if he
did that it's a powerful combination
you're never going to be wildly popular
but if you look at some of the guys who
managed to survive Justin Trudeau uh and
macron they all do this they combine
being kind of if you will tough on some
of these cultural issues with economic
opportunities for the poor yeah I'm
reminded of inspired a memory of when
Clinton I think he was somewhere in
Michigan or Russ belt State and he said
your jobs aren't coming back I'm not
going to lie to you and I think he
immediately got so much credit ability
among moderates like well finally
someone's going to be honest with us I
think even the I think even the union
bosses appreciated that what talk a
little bit
about what's happening on campuses or
any thoughts you have about reform if
any in higher
education look I think American
universities are amazing places let's
not again forget the big story we we
have the best universities in the world
they do amazing stuff particularly in
The Sciences but even other places we
you know the fundamental Advantage we
have over the rest of the world is other
countries Singapore South Korea they
teach people how to do well at tests we
teach people how to think and problem
solve that is a fundamentally different
way of approaching education it's a
deeply American way and we do it very
well now I think two things have
happened over the last 20 or 30 years
one of them is that you have had a
certain degree of the the you know the
young population has been getting more
leftwing for you know particularly on
cultural issues and things like that and
that's a real Trend that I don't pay too
much attention to that in the sense that
people forget in the early 1970s the
Harvard Crimson was writing editorials
in favor of Paul P it was writing
editorials arguing that the North
Vietnamese should win the Vietnam War
because they were the forces of of
progress and Liberation you know these
are 1920 year olds you know they've
often been radical they've often there
were a lot of maest at Yale when I was
there they're supposed to be pushing the
limits right that's the idea right
exactly what has changed and I think
what makes it much more cancerous is
this this building up of this um this
diver diversity equity and inclusion
apparatus and bureaucracy and I want to
be clear about one thing it's not that
all these people are bad many of them
are very good people they're they they
are right-minded they're trying to do
the right thing it's a good example of
incentives and institutions when you
create these large bureaucracies they
have a kind of self-perpetuating reason
to exist and to and to grow and what
that rests on is there are being
problems those problems being
highlighted those problems being
exacerbated and one of the things I
noticed on college campuses so I was at
went and then I served on the board you
know decades later between those two
periods mid 1980s when I was at Yale and
around you know 200 8 9 10 when I was
when I was on the board um what had
happened is you had this whole apparatus
of segregation that had built up because
you created you know African-American
house Latin American house Hillel uh
South Asian students African Americans
just you created this huge apparatus of
these these organizations and these
administrative uh officers whose almost
job it was to separate people reinforce
that separation uh emphasize all the you
know the problems the uh the the the you
know um the the lack of uh you know the
the kind of ways in which people felt
discriminated and what that ended up
being was it in sum total what you ended
up doing was creating a more segregated
more resentful more hostile campus than
than was necessary uh because you're
feeding these fires instead of saying
we're a campus about integration you
know what we really want to F is to see
the commonality in all of you and I
understand where you know as I say it
might have been well motivated but what
you have now created is a completely
balkanized campus where you have these
you know these groups that think of
themselves as victims this bureaucracy
that feeds that uh and every time they
there's a problem they the demand is
give us more money give us funding you
know so it reinforces the segregated
identities and I think this is a huge
problem and it's fundamentally illiberal
because we are not looking at human
beings as human beings anymore we're
looking at them based on ascriptive
identities of race ethnicity and
national origin which is fundamentally
opposed to the liberal project which
sees as Martin Luther King so
beautifully put it judges people by the
content of their character not the color
of their skin Fred zakari is the host of
n's Flagship International Affairs show
fed sakario GPS as well as a weekly
columnist for the Washington Post he is
the author of four New York Times
bestsellers including 10 lessons for a
post-pandemic world and his latest age
of revolutions progress and backlash
from 1600 to the presid he joins us from
his home in New York freed I always um
you're you're you're one of the few
reasons I turn on the television Premier
League games and I like to watch you for
whatever reason on the big screen in in
our home I think you're doing fantastic
work and and having a huge impact
appreciate your time as they say in the
talet from your lips to God's ears Scot
there you go for thanks
[Music]
man
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