Elon Musk: “10X Every 6 Months” | Tyrants, Corruption, Free Speech and Preserving Consciousness

Summary

In this podcast transcript, the host engages in a thought-provoking discussion about the rapid advancements in AI technology and its potential impact on society. The guest, an expert in the field, shares insights on the current state of AI, the race for technological supremacy, and the challenges of managing a tech company in a competitive global market. They delve into topics such as the importance of truthfulness in AI development, the role of regulation, and the future of electric vehicles and space exploration. The conversation also touches on geopolitical issues, the management of geniuses, and the balance between risk-taking and innovation. The guest emphasizes the goal of extending human consciousness and the pursuit of a future where technology serves the greater good.

Takeaways

• 🚀 AI and technology are advancing rapidly, with AI hardware increasing exponentially and software breakthroughs occurring frequently.
• 🌐 The global AI race is not just about algorithms, people, or computing power, but a combination of these elements, including data and electricity availability.
• 🤖 The development of AI is drawing talent from various fields, such as physics, indicating its importance and potential impact on society.
• 🔧 Hardware constraints, like chip supply and voltage transformer availability, play a significant role in the pace of AI development.
• 🌍 China is expected to be a major player in AI development, with its large pool of smart individuals and growing technological capabilities.
• 🚗 The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is happening faster than expected, with countries like Norway leading the way in EV adoption.
• 🛰 The potential for self-sufficiency on Mars is possible but requires a significant amount of resources and infrastructure to be delivered to the planet.
• 🚀 Space exploration, including missions to Mars and the Moon, is a priority with the goal of making humanity a multiplanet species for the long-term survival of consciousness.
• 🌟 The pursuit of truth and accuracy in information is a key goal for the development of the X platform (formerly Twitter), aiming to become the best source of truth on the internet.
• 💡 Innovation and risk-taking are essential for progress, with the understanding that some failures are necessary for success and growth.
• 🎮 Strategic and complex games can provide valuable insights and frameworks for understanding technological development and decision-making in real-world scenarios.

Q & A

What does the guest believe is the current state of the AI race?

The guest believes that AI is the fastest advancing technology, with hardware dedicated to AI increasing significantly and software breakthroughs happening frequently. They predict that AI smarter than any human individual will be achieved by the end of the next year, and that the collective AI compute will exceed all humans in 5 years.

What are the main constraints in the hardware development for AI?

The main constraints mentioned are the supply of chips, specifically Nvidia chips, and the transition to voltage Transformers. Additionally, the availability of electricity is expected to become a constraint in the future.

How does the guest view the role of data in training AI?

The guest notes that while the amount of data might seem vast, it is actually not enough for training advanced AI systems. They mention the need to look beyond books and consider all videos, podcasts, and other forms of content, and even then, there might be a need for more data, which could come from synthetic sources or real-world video.

What is the biggest challenge faced by the guest's company, X, in developing AI?

The biggest challenge is training their Gro version two model, which they believe will be better than GDP 4. The challenge is to get enough GPUs online to train it fast enough to complete the process in May.

What is the guest's perspective on the regulation of AI?

The guest believes that some form of regulatory authority is needed to ensure the safety of AI, similar to how other industries are overseen. They emphasize the importance of training AI to be as truthful as possible to avoid dangerous outcomes in the future.

How does the guest view the potential of electric vehicles?

The guest is highly optimistic about the future of electric vehicles, stating that it's only a matter of time before all vehicles go fully electric, including aircraft and boats. They believe that electric cars are inevitable and view the transition as a positive step forward.

What is the guest's strategy for competing with Chinese electric vehicle companies?

The guest acknowledges that Chinese companies are very competitive and make great cars. They do not provide a specific strategy but imply that they are aware of the challenge and are prepared to face it head-on.

What does the guest think is needed for humans to be self-sufficient on Mars?

The guest estimates that between one to ten million tons of supplies need to be delivered to Mars for self-sufficiency. They believe this can be achieved within 20 years with the current technology, requiring a large number of rocket flights.

When does the guest expect the first humans on Mars?

The guest predicts that the first humans on Mars could happen within seven to ten years after the first unmanned Starship lands on Mars, which they believe could be within about five years.

What is the vision for X, the company the guest recently acquired?

The vision for X is to become the best source of truth on the internet. The guest aims for it to be an 'everything app' where users can access text, audio, video, financial services, and more, all while maintaining a high standard of accuracy and fact-checking.

How does the guest manage geniuses in his companies?

The guest believes that highly intelligent and talented individuals manage themselves. He focuses on setting clear goals and expects team members to share and commit to these objectives. He provides his opinion and insists on attention to detail but does not manage them in a traditional sense.

What is the guest's approach to risk-taking in business decisions?

The guest is willing to take significant risks, especially when they are necessary for the success of a project or to avoid failure. However, he balances this by ensuring that the company is moving at high speed in the right direction and making necessary course corrections along the way.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 AI Advancements and the Global Race

The conversation begins with a discussion on the rapid advancements in AI technology, describing it as the fastest advancing technology ever seen. The guest shares insights on the exponential growth in AI hardware and software breakthroughs, predicting that AI smarter than any human could be achieved by the end of the next year. The conversation then delves into the challenges of the AI race, including hardware constraints such as chip supply and voltage transformer supply. The discussion highlights the importance of talent migration from fields like physics to AI and the critical issue of data availability for training AI models. The guest also shares thoughts on the biggest challenge in developing AI, the transition from the current model to a more advanced version, and the necessity of training AI to be as truthful as possible to ensure safety.

05:02

🌐 Global Talent and Hardware Challenges in AI

The paragraph continues the discussion on AI, focusing on the global distribution of talent and the challenges faced in hardware deployment. The guest mentions the concentration of AI advancements in San Francisco and London, and the significant contributions from China. There's an acknowledgment of the importance of programming AI with utmost truthfulness to prevent potential misuse of power. The conversation then shifts to the topic of electric vehicles (EVs), with the guest expressing optimism about the rapid conversion to EVs, especially in countries like Norway. The discussion also touches on the competitiveness of Chinese car companies and the expansion of the guest's companies into India and other markets.

10:02

🚀 Mars Colonization and Multiplanetary Species

This paragraph discusses the efforts towards making Mars self-sufficient and the technological and logistical challenges involved. The guest provides an estimate of the tonnage needed for Mars colonization and the number of rocket flights required to achieve this. The timeline for the first Starship landing on Mars and the potential for human travel to the Moon and Mars within the next five to seven years is also covered. The importance of becoming a multiplanetary species for the survival and expansion of consciousness is emphasized, with the guest expressing a vision of humanity extending beyond Earth and into other star systems.

15:06

🌍 Geopolitical Influence and Corporate Governance

The conversation turns to the geopolitical impact of the guest's companies, particularly in relation to Twitter and its role in providing a source of truth on the internet. The guest shares his vision for Twitter (renamed X) as the best source of truth, despite the challenges of misinformation and external influences. The discussion includes the handling of legal demands and the importance of maintaining free speech while combating misinformation. The guest also reflects on his role in managing geniuses within his companies, emphasizing the culture of hard work and the acceptance of failure as a part of innovation. The conversation concludes with the guest's thoughts on his legacy and the importance of understanding the universe and extending the 'light of consciousness'.

Keywords

💡AI race

The AI race refers to the competitive development and advancement of artificial intelligence technologies among various entities such as countries, companies, and research institutions. In the context of the video, it highlights the rapid progress in AI and the potential for AI to surpass human intelligence, indicating a global competition to lead in this transformative technology.

💡Hardware

In the context of the video, hardware refers to the physical components and infrastructure required to support and run AI systems, such as specialized computer chips and servers. The speaker discusses the significant increase in AI hardware, emphasizing its role in the advancement of AI capabilities and the challenges in supply chain, particularly mentioning Nvidia chips and voltage Transformers.

💡Data

Data is a crucial element in the development and training of AI systems. It refers to the vast amounts of information, in various forms, used to teach AI algorithms how to learn, understand, and make decisions. The speaker addresses the issue of having enough data for training AI, noting that while the amount of data might seem vast, it is still not enough to train advanced AI systems, leading to the need for more diverse and expansive data sources.

💡Electric vehicles (EVs)

Electric vehicles, or EVs, are automobiles that are powered by electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. In the video, the speaker discusses the transition towards electric vehicles, emphasizing their environmental benefits and the inevitability of a full shift to electric transportation, including cars, aircraft, and boats. The speaker also mentions the competitive landscape in the EV market, particularly noting the strong presence of Chinese car manufacturers.

💡Self-sufficiency on Mars

The concept of self-sufficiency on Mars refers to the ability to support human life and activities on the Martian surface without reliance on resources from Earth. The speaker outlines the challenges and requirements for establishing a self-sustaining presence on Mars, including the need to transport significant tonnage of supplies and equipment, and the development of technologies and infrastructure to produce food, water, and energy on the planet.

💡Regulation of AI

The regulation of AI pertains to the establishment of rules, policies, and oversight mechanisms to ensure the safe and ethical development and use of artificial intelligence technologies. In the video, the speaker suggests the need for a regulatory authority to monitor AI safety, comparing it to existing regulatory bodies for other industries such as aviation and pharmaceuticals. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of training AI to be as truthful as possible to prevent potential misuse of power and unintended consequences.

💡X (formerly Twitter)

X, previously known as Twitter, is a social media platform that the speaker has acquired and rebranded with the goal of becoming the best source of truth on the internet. The speaker discusses the platform's commitment to accurate information, the community-based fact-checking system, and the challenges of dealing with misinformation and political pressures. The vision for X is to serve as a platform for free expression, idea exchange, and truth-seeking while combating attempts to manipulate information.

💡Geopolitical influence

Geopolitical influence refers to the impact and power that an individual, organization, or country has on international political events and relations. In the video, the speaker's companies and initiatives, such as electric vehicles, Starlink, and Twitter (now X), have positioned him as a significant figure in global politics. The speaker discusses his intentions to use this influence to advance the future of humanity and consciousness, rather than for political manipulation.

💡Innovation

Innovation is the process of creating new ideas, methods, or products, often resulting in significant changes within industries or societies. The speaker emphasizes the importance of accepting failure as a part of the innovation process, and the necessity of fostering an environment that encourages risk-taking and learning from mistakes. He also discusses the balance between calculated risks and bets on unproven ideas, using the development of the Cybertruck as an example of a radical innovation that was affordable to attempt due to its non-critical nature for the company's overall success.

💡PhDs and research

PhDs and research represent the academic and scientific exploration of various fields of knowledge. The speaker expresses a critical view of the utility of many PhD theses, suggesting that most of them have low practical application. However, he acknowledges the rare but significant contributions to knowledge that can emerge from academic research, which can inform and guide the development of technologies and industries.

Highlights

The rapid advancement of AI technology, with hardware increases in capability by a factor of 10 every year or less.

The prediction that AI could surpass human intelligence individually by the end of the next year and collectively in 5 years.

The transition in hardware deployment from chip constraints to voltage transformer supply challenges.

The influx of top talent from various fields, like physics, into AI due to its fast-paced development.

Algorithmic breakthroughs in AI and the challenge of encountering data limitations despite vast amounts of information.

The importance of training AI to be as truthful as possible to ensure safety and avoid dangerous programming biases.

China's position in the AI race, with a focus on their competitive AI developments and smart people.

The accelerating shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) and the inevitability of a fully electric future for vehicles, including aircraft and boats.

The competitive nature of Chinese car companies in the global electric vehicle market.

The vision for Tesla in India, aiming to introduce electric vehicles to keep pace with the country's growing population.

The goal for Mars colonization, estimating the tonnage needed for self-sufficiency and the timeline for achieving it.

The first Starship landing on Mars expected within 5 years, with an aim for crewed missions within 7 to 10 years.

The importance of becoming a multi-planet species to ensure the longevity of consciousness and survival.

The vision for X (formerly Twitter) as the best source of truth on the internet, with a commitment to fact-checking and community notes.

The impact of geopolitical events on X, with a focus on handling demands from authorities and maintaining integrity.

The balance between speed and analysis in decision-making, emphasizing the competitive advantage of speed.

The approach to risk-taking in innovation, accepting failure as part of the process and learning from mistakes.

The value of research and PhDs, with a critical view on their utility and the importance of practical application.

The insights gained from strategic video games and their influence on planning and running companies.

The legacy of contributing to the future of consciousness and understanding the nature of the universe.

Transcripts

hello hi alone hi hi hi everyone and big

thanks for taking the timeon you know

we've been trying to get you on the

podcast since uh we started it two years

ago so we are super pleased that we that

we have you on and indeed on your

xplatform how cool yeah uh it's pretty

cool yeah I mean you have like lots of

people from all around the world uh

simultaneously do effectively a

real-time podcast and uh it works pretty

well very good well we have so much to

talk about so uh love to kick off with

with AI um now what's your take on where

we are in the AI race just

now wow that's a long answer

um there's there's so much happening in

AI is the fastest advancing technology

that I've ever seen of any kind and I've

seen a lot of Technology um you barely a

week goes by without some new

announcement so uh and and if you look

at the amount of uh AI Hardware the

computers coming online that are

dedicated to AI that is increasing what

looks like at least by a factor of 10

every year if not every six to n

months so when you combine the hardware

um Coming online really order of

magnitude increase every you know call

at least every nine months um and uh

many many software breakthroughs uh if

if you look at that that curve it looks

insane so I think we'll

um my my my guess is that we we'll have

ai that is smarter than any any one

human probably to around the end of next

year um and then

AI the total amount of sort of sentient

compute of AI I think will probably

exceed

all humans in 5

years what what is the what is the race

about just now is it algorithm is it

people is it computing power what what

is it about just now is it the supply of

chips just what is

it yeah last year it was uh chip

constrainted um and the hardware

deployment we break it down into the

three areas of people um data and

Hardware I'm starting with Hardware uh

last year it was about a chift supply

people could not get enough um Nvidia

chips particularly um this year it's

starting to transition to a voltage

Transformer Supply so actually getting

enough voltage

Transformers uh put in place so my sort

of very Niche joke is Transformers for

Transformers because a lot of the AI

That's run is called a Transformer so

you need Transformers to run

Transformers um and then next in the if

you look out a year or two or certainly

3 years um it's just electricity

availability

so that's those those constraints in the

hardware

side

um so many of the smart World smartest

people are are doing AI people that

would have done physics before in fact

or had have done physics for example

have moved into AI because it's just the

fastest moving field so we're seeing a

lot of the best talent a lot of the

smartest humans going into to Ai and

then uh we see along with that

algorithmic

breakthroughs um and then then you start

hitting the the wall with the the data

problem um so

the you know you can fit all books ever

written um just the text the the text in

compressed form uh on one hard drive or

call one one

computer um so when you when you're

looking at like

so called tokens to train on yeah uh and

you you still think of like all the

books ever written in every in in all

languages by All Humans sounds like a

lot certainly it's far more than any one

human could could ever read um it

actually is a small it's a small number

of train training tokens it's just not

enough so then you you start having to

look at all the videos have I created um

you know all the podcasts all the

everything

um and and you start even running out of

data there well hopefully they hopefully

they will include this podcast uh that

definitely will include this podcast

what's the biggest challenge you have

with uh with

xai well X is still relatively new so

it's not um you

know

uh like the limiting factor right now is

just training our Gro version two model

which should be we think better than GPD

4 um and that's we're hoping to complete

that in May so that's that's training

right now so it's just really we're just

trying to get enough gpus online to

train it fast enough to get that done in

May um which I think probably will

happen um and

then and that's with uh roughly 20,000

h100s uh and and doing I think very

efficient training

then the next step would be for grock 3

which would be I guess G55 or Beyond uh

would you know requires uh 100,000

Nvidia h100s training

coherently so that's you know a half

order of magnitude basically more

training um and then you really start to

have running into this data problem

where you you have to either create

synthetic data or use real world video

those the the two sources of kind of

like unlimited data uh synthetic data

and real world video which I should say

Tesla has a pretty big advantage in real

world video um T has by far the most

real world video of anyone yeah you've

got a huge library that so when do you

think so when do you think we'll see

proper

AGI well it depends on how you define

AGI if you define AGI as smarter than

the smartest human I think it's probably

end of next year like like within two

years

um but but that's that there's still

there's still a pretty big leap beyond

that to say smer than the the machine

augmented human Collective so like is it

smarter than all humans working together

uh who are also using computers to

augment their output and that that I

think is probably five years away one

one way to look at it is is is to try to

assess um like roughly what is the ratio

of digital to biological

compute um and the so biological compute

are all the human brains that are

thinking and that's that's a pretty

static that's that's

not hi sorry hi sorry I don't know where

we had some be back online here yeah I

think somebody I think somebody hacked

us we must have some we must have some

enemies um last question on um on AI any

your thoughts on regulation and um how

it should be

structured well I I think we probably do

need some sort of regulatory authority

to look at the safety of AI um just as

we have regulatory authorities in other

Arenas to um you know o oversee aircraft

and the safety of aircraft and cars and

and other things you know medication

so

uh the rate at which AI is progressing

is is fast is faster than probably any

regulatory agency can keep up with

um but but I do have a comment on what I

think is very important

for achieving safe AI which is that uh

it's very important to train the AI to

be as truthful as possible um and not to

uh yeah just to be as truthful as

possible

um the I think you can get some very

dangerous things when you program an AI

to be politically correct think that

things that may

seem uh relatively innocuous now but

will not be so in in the future if AI

has immense power you can take the

Google Gemini example where it it

refused to publish to produce a picture

of George Washington as a white man and

and any in fact any historical figure

would automatically be

made

diverse um because it's been programmed

to insist on diversity which sounds you

know perhaps okay at first but not if

the AI has so much power that it can

actually enforce diversity and decide

there's too many of one kind of people

or too many of one sex and kill

off just just kill off enough until the

the diversity number is is what it's

programmed to believe is correct but

don't you think this will be sorted out

in the next

version no we don't think so where is

China where is China now in a relative

to the US next verion no they'll make it

more subtle okay and less obvious but it

will still be

there okay well we'll see but where

where is China where do you where is

China now in I relative to

us um I I don't know exactly where China

is uh except there are a lot of very

smart people in China um and they it

won't be they won't be far behind the

rest of the world or far behind the US

um I mean the AI a right now

is very concentrated in San Francisco

and

London um and then you know there's

there's you know a lot happening in in

China but I I'm I don't have insight

into what they're doing uh except that

they I'm confident they will not be far

behind uh what is developed in the west

yeah um

so but but but mark my words the if if

uh if we do not program an AI to be as

truthful as

possible that that is where it will go

AR that is where the danger

[Music]

lies yeah mve moving tare moving to to

Tesla um is is the EV conversion now

going slower than you had expected just

where is the speed need of conversion

now relative to your

expectations I think it's going quite

fast actually especially in Norway um

absolutely well it's pretty much all

there is is your your

Teslas yeah there's a lot of Teslas in

Norway it's crazy thanks I once again

like to thank Norway for the support of

electric

vehicles um so much

appreciated time

so and I think

it's we will the

that that electric that all vehicles

will go fully electric uh it's only a

matter of time um that includes aircraft

ultimately and boats um obviously trains

the only thing that is ironically

difficult to where you can't really make

it electric is Rockets because you need

you can't get away from um having to

expel Mass uh sort of Newton's thirdd

law um but but all cars will be electric

it's only matter time and we'll look

back on combustion cause in the same way

that we look at back on uh steam

engines

um that that it was it was inevitable

that there would be internal combustion

cars and that and it just as inevitable

that all cars will go electric um and um

there will be some e and you know so

like it going to be a completely

straight up line there will be some uh e

and flow in how how far electric cars go

but that but the ultimate um victory of

electric cars is inevitable um and and I

think the sooner we get there the better

yeah how do you see the Chinese

competition here

now we generally find that the companies

in China are the most competitive in the

world and certainly in uh electric

vehicles or cars in general the Chinese

car companies are by far the most

competitive um yeah that's where where

we find the most toughest toughest compe

competitive

challenges they make great cars and they

work very hard so when you ride in one

of the Chinese cars what do you think I

mean you're an engineer you know what

about it what do you what do you

think I haven't R I have not ridden in

one lately

but

uh because they're not all available

here you know in the US or very few are

available in the US um some are

available in Europe um but from what my

team tells me they are very

good now you are moving into India here

as well in terms of production what are

your what are your thoughts here sorry

moving into where to India Oh India yeah

uh yeah I think it's you know India is

sort of a it's India is now the most

populous country in the world you know

the biggest population um and I think

there we India just should have electric

cars just like every other country has

electric

cars um and

um yeah so it's a natural progression

to provide electric Tesla electric

vehicles in

India

yeah uh moving moving out out in space

um what what would it take to be

self-sufficient at

Mars to be self-sufficient Mars it's

really about the the total tonnage that

is delivered to the surface of Mars um

so you can say like

well um I I think it's probably on the

order of a million tons maybe it maybe

more but somewhere between probably a

million tons and 10 million tons are

needed to make Mars self-sufficient and

how many Rockets is

that well I gave a presentation on this

recently if people look at my my recent

uh SpaceX talk

but if you if you have uh

100 really uh if you have 100 tons per

flight you need 10,000

flights to get to a million million

tons um and that's 100 tons landed to

the surface of Mars so in order to get

100 tons land to the surface of Mars you

need 500 t five times that number in

Earth orbit um so we do a lot of orbital

refilling um so launching sort of uh

Rockets uh tanker ships over and over

again that that would replenish the

propellant of the ships that would go to

Mars um and then You' need on roughly on

order of 10,000 of them uh to get to a

million tons um and

uh but we we plan to do that that that's

uh that's we we think we can get that

done within 20 years really so and when

do you think so when do you think we'll

be there for the first time

first first uh well the

first Starship that will land on Mars

which obviously will not have people at

first I think it's probably within about

5 years um and then it would probably

launch several ships and

just confirm that they can land okay on

Mars um we'll also be doing the moon

simultaneously with that so uh go taking

well I think I think we'll get people

back to the Moon I should say within 5

years and we'll get uh uncrewed ships

landed on mons within 5 years and and

then we be building up the production

rate um and improving the design of the

booster in the ship so

um so in the first people on Mars I

think within seven years or so 7 to n

years um and from from there we need to

rapidly increase we need massive numbers

of ships going and Earth and Mars Only

are in the same quadrant of the solar

system roughly for six months every two

years or or at

least it's only possible to really

transfer

efficiently um from Earth to Mars I say

every six months but really there's

about there's a couple months where

where it's ideal every 26 months um so

every two years you would see a

basically a fleet depart Mars I I think

we quite a spectacular thing to see a

thousand ships depart from Mars all at

once like Battle Star

Galactica what kind of new technology do

we need before we'll be self-sufficient

there actually I think we have all the

tech we already know all the technology

that's necessary for that it just needs

we just need to build so no new physics

is needed for this why is it so

important for

you I think it's important for

Consciousness in

general um so if if we wish to maximize

the lifespan of

Consciousness then being a multiplet

species will result in a much

longer uh existence of Consciousness

Consciousness than if we on one planet

if you're on one planet we're simply

biting our time until there's eventually

a Calamity it could be soon it could be

a long time but eventually something

will happen it could be you know global

thermonuclear war it could be simply

That civilization merely subsides C our

civilization may not die with a bang it

may die with a whimper just just

gradually falling into obsolescence but

if we're a multi-planet species then

we've got two planets and yeah and they

can support each other um and we can go

beyond two planets ultimately to the

moons of Jupiter to the to the

uh um you beyond to the the outer parts

of the solar system and ultimately to

other star systems

so this tiny this tiny candle of

Consciousness that we have in this vast

Darkness can be

extended um and Amplified and we're just

far more likely to uh survive as for for

Consciousness to survive if we are a

multiplet

species you don't think it' be better to

use all these resources and try to sort

out

Earth well just to put this into

perspective the amount of resources I'm

talking about for making life

multiplanetary would be less than 1% of

all resources on

Earth so really can think of it as

resource allocation do you think it's

worth spending half a percent of Earth

Resources to ensure uh that we have

redundancy in Consciousness and that we

extend Consciousness Beyond Mars to

other planets to to Mars and other

planets and ultimately other star

systems um and then also take into

account the fact that there are certain

inevit there are certain things we

simply cannot aoid on Earth um like is

it within your power of mind to stop

World War I I don't think so no if it

happens um and if we have Global ther

nulear Warfare our technology level will

drop to the stern

age um and we may never survive and then

there are we maybe get we may get hit

like by a comet like the dinosaurs and

um you know if the dinosaurs had

spaceships they they' probably still be

around um so and then if if you wait

long enough the Earth the the sun will

continue to expand and eventually engulf

Earth and destroy it and destroy all

life so just to give it amount a certain

amount of time no matter what you do on

Earth no matter how careful you are um

Earth will life all life on Earth will

die that it will happen is a certainty

it's a big Gloom of this no

um so

um on a slightly uh less gloomy note uh

X Twitter yeah um what is your vision

now what do you how do you see the the

vision of

x i goal of X is to be the best source

of Truth on the

internet um and I think we're making a

good you know good progress there I mean

this it's we to be like I call the

everything app like if anything you want

to do you can do on the xplatform um

whether it's text audio video

uh payments Financial stuff

um Communications of all kinds um and

then but but then also where there is

publicly disseminated information is to

be the best source of Truth um and I

think it I think it already is that um

now people may say oh there's some piece

of misinformation disinformation I say

yes but look look at the replies the

replies correct that misinformation and

look at Community notes and the and how

good the batting average of community

notes is it's extremely good it's by far

the best factchecking system on the

internet

um so and and and a lot of people still

labor under the illusion that the the

the Legacy newspapers that they read are

actually true there's so much nonsense

in them I mean Nico how many times when

do you read an article in a newspaper

where you know the circumstances of what

that article is and how often is it spot

on no of course it's uh normally no no

of course we all know it's normally

wrong but but how do you look not sure

but how do you look at the situation now

for instance with with with Russia uh

you know the work Russia does in Germany

with fake accounts on it's pretty pretty

huge uh activity

right I mean we don't see a lot of

Russian activity to be frank um on the

system um

so we we see very little

um we do see we do see a lot of lot of

attempts to influence things but they

seem to be coming from from the West not

from from

Russia right what about um what about

things like the latest developments in

in

Brazil and yeah sure yeah so the

the

uh we we kept getting these demands from

um uh this uh Judge Alexander um that's

his that's his name on Twitter Alexander

um and there would be to suspend

accounts um immediately we're given

typically two hours to suspend an

account or face massive fines um and the

the final stoies we were we being given

demands to suspend setting setting

members of the parliament and major

journalists and moreover we could not

tell them that it this was at the behest

of uh as under Morales we had to pretend

that it was due to our rules of service

and that was the final straw and we said

no now um when you when you bought

Twitter um now renamed X did you expect

that you would end up in these type of

situations so it's is all

unexpected well I knew it wouldn't be

just a total B of roses um you know and

it's talk I

wouldn't

um no I mean I thought it would

be since we're just like rigorously

trying to pursue the the the goal of

being the most accurate and truthful

place in the internet and that that

doesn't mean that what is said is always

true or accurate but is it is perhaps

another way to frame it is as the least

inaccurate place on the internet do you

do you secretly do you secretly think

this is a bit

fun it's fun yeah yeah it's fun at times

it's stressful at times and it's fun at

times um but overall we're trying to

serve the people of Earth um and and and

this is sort of an es sort of maybe an

esoteric way of viewing it but um to try

to be kind of like the the group

consciousness of Earth so you can think

of like if each person is like a neuron

contributing to like the collective

brain of Earth and you want to try to

minimize the noise and maximize the

signal of every neuron that's connected

to the the X Network that that's

basically what is what is the collective

will of of humanity and and how and and

and how to yeah just serve the

collective will of humanity and serve

the greater good that that's our goal um

now you know there's there's definitely

going to be people who want to

manipulate that information and so we

have to fight that and try to have uh

you know be be the most accurate place

as to the best of our ability

and have it be kind of a Marketplace of

ideas where people can propose ideas and

you know debate them

and um I think so far it's working

reasonably well in that regard um now

people that don't like the truth will

not like those ex or if they want to

manipulate things they will not like it

but only but only a few years ago you

were you were a guy

um producing electric vehicles now you

are you know through starlink you've had

some you know I mean some big impact in

in

Ukraine uh with Twitter you are kind

of into some issues in uh you know

Brazil India

Turkey um you know you becoming like a

real geopolitical

force and a really important one how do

you how do you look at

that well like I said I'm really I'm

trying

to take the set of actions that maximize

the probability that the future is good

um I mean we have to keep

civilization going onward and upward as

much as possible and um and try to

minimize the civilizational threats that

occur um like you know we we we can't

get to Mars if civilization collapses

it's not going to happen so

um you know we've got to we've got to

keep

um keep civilization going um and I

think we should view our civilization as

being much more fragile than we think we

kind of take for granted it's always

going to be there but actually if you

study history you realize that there

arise you know there's RIS P

civilizations um I mean I was I was

reading in depth about the ancient

samarians um who were arguably the first

civilization if you call civilization

like writing and stuff you know they're

the first to

writing um and uh but eventually they

died out and they were

gone so and then nobody could read their

writing at all and and they they just

faded out as a

civilization um but they're pretty

impressive in their time and the ancient

Egyptians the same thing um and uh you

know one sort of one after another uh

ancient Greek had it Greece had its day

uh you know China and India had will

have incredibly impressive populations

but there's been EVs and flows in the CH

China and Indian civilizations over the

the the aons you know the

bennia as well um

so you know I I guess I'm just trying to

take this this set of the steps that

um increase uh the scope and scale of

Consciousness that's that's what I'm

trying to do it's but it's not that I'm

trying to have a put a political thumb

on the scale or anything like that um

but I I think I'm trying to have the

political will go where the people want

it to

go you know you you mentioned some um

some uh really smart people here and um

kind of just moving t a bit here to

copal culture now you manage a lot of

geniuses in your in your companies what

is the key to manage really smart people

you

think

I don't I don't think I manage smart

people they manage themselves

um I I think

you well I guess with really smart

people you know I don't really think of

of it like managing them I think that if

somebody's very smart and talented they

they can go anywhere and do anything any

time like if they they they don't have

to work with me they could go

anywhere so I I really just say like

look this is the the goal we're after

and this is what we're trying to achieve

and do you agree with this goal and if

you do then let's try to get it done um

and um you know provide my opinion along

the way and but I it's very rare for me

to actually sort of insist on a on on a

particular thing once in a while I'll

say look guys you just got to trust me

on on this one we got to do this thing

and if it turns out to be a bad

decision you we can can all hold that

against me in the future but you have an

incred are for detail right I mean when

we read the is book um it's pretty clear

that you I mean you really are are deep

into detail and know what you talk about

so how do you how do you balance this um

kind of micromanagement of some areas

and then delegate other

areas I wouldn't I wouldn't call it

micromanagement

um it's just insisting on atttention to

detail that um if you're trying to make

a perfect product you must have

attention to atten attention to details

essential

um and I haven't actually read the Ison

book you should it's very good actually

I loved

it well I I asked alter Ison if I should

read it and he said I shouldn't

um so so

then said I shouldn't read it so okay

well I'll um I'll ask you some questions

from the book then they you he talks

about you know you the kind of a

hardcore and Ultra Hardcore

culture what is an Ultra Hardcore

culture I guess it's work I mean it's

working culture right I mean how how I

mean Ultra hard work how hard is

that well when things get really intense

you're basically just working every

waking

hour and how and how long can you do

that

for I've done that

for well continuous for sometimes like a

few years what does it what does it do

to you it really it's

pain um and and every waking out maybe

is an exaggeration because there are a

few hours um obviously with friends and

family and and critical other things um

but 100 hour weeks would be I I've done

many many stretches of 100 hour weeks

like true 100 hour weeks

um where roughly six hours per day is

sleeping

um I would not recommend that this is

not that's for emergencies you know it's

not uh all the

time um you know during very difficult

times at Tesla I've had to do that and

at sometimes at the beginning of my

earlier startups I did that where I just

wouldn't leave the office I would just

sleep under my desk and just work seven

days a week

um sometimes it's necessary for success

or or to avoid

failure um but but do you you do you

enjoy being in this crisis

mode no I don't it

sucks okay no I I don't want to be there

it's

pain but sometimes it's the difference

between success and

failure oh when you make decisions how

important is

speed he just gave me an idea which is

um I'm going to invite the uh Judge

Alexander R uh to do a spaces and then

he can explain why what I'm doing is bad

and and and maybe he's

right I challenge I challenge him to a

spaces sounds good yeah but what about

speed when you make when when you make

decisions how how important is speed and

how do you how do you balance analysis

with your gutfield

I think the

the the best offense and defense is

speed if you think of something like the

SR71 Blackbird it really had almost no

defenses except

accelerate and it was never shut down

even even once like I think over 3,000

missiles were shot at the sof 71 black

boat and none

hit and and really what it did was just

go faster so the the power of speed

is uh underappreciated as a competitive

Dimension um is that

why um you know space expence has been

so successful because you've been mean

and lean as an organization

and fast I think speed speed is uh

definitely a factor I should say you

want to go in the case of a company you

you you need to be a vector not a scaler

so it can't be you you need to go at

high speed in the right

direction

sure so I can't just

so and no company's going to be going in

the right direction all the time so you

have to do course

Corrections like a guided missile you

qued course Corrections um and uh but in

the case of SpaceX it's like okay our

goal is to extend Humanity beyond Earth

um and we didn't even know how to even

frame the question correctly like what

what which knew that that was the

General

goal um we didn't know what pent we' use

or what the raw materials would be or

for the how would the rocket be built

how would it be designed what's actually

important um and uh you know so for

example going from our Falcon

architecture which is um uses refined

jet fuel and liquid oxygen um in a um

open cycle gas generator architecture

engine to a to Starship which is

a uh liquid methane liquid oxygen

um uh propellant uh in a staged

combustion very high pressure

engine um that that that's that's a big

architectural change um but we didn't

know that we we needed to make that

architectural change until we're pretty

far down the

road like about halfway took us about 10

years to figure out that was even the

right architecture now we're confident

it is and we're confident that uh making

life M multiplanetary can be hi hi

hacking us badly today I'm wondering who

it is yeah this is odd it's I haven't

had this issue in spes for a while no um

just um we were on um uh risk taking and

so on um now um I think SpaceX is one of

the best example I know about uh what we

call failing well right learning from

mistakes and moving on um what generally

how do you how do you look at

mistakes well I mean which which ones do

you Toler and which ones don't you

tolerate well I I

think I don't really think of that way

uh you know the first three flights of

SpaceX failed um the fourth one

succeeded and if if the fourth one had

not succeeded we would have gone

bankrupt we would had no money left so

it was very close

call um but since then space XX has done

very well it's now the the falcon you

know knock on wood is the most reliable

rocket in the world um and launches

about every um 2 to 3 days um now um

last question on risk what are the types

of risk you would not want to

take

uh well I I think in terms of risks you

don't you you don't want to take risks

that where if if you only want to take

bet the company risks if they're

absolutely necessary so they've been a

few times where saying the with Tesla we

we just had no choice but to vet the

company because if we if we're Inc if

we're doing a new vehicle program that

is uh an order of magnitude larger than

the past one then we're by we're just

unequivocally betting the company

because the new vehicle would be 90% of

production so going from uh the original

Roadster to the model S original

Roadster was only you know about 600 6

700 per year then Model S was 20,000 per

year and um and then model 3 is sort of

half sort of half a million per

year um model y over a million per year

so these are bet the company vehicles

but the the the reason we could do for

example the sabot truck which was kind

of a a radical new design was because it

wasn't a bet the company decision so I

was like okay look let's try something I

want to try something totally crazy uh

it's like what what truck with Blade

Runner Drive um except the when you're

going to drive on was yeah I think it

would be perfect for M um but like we

could try something that where there's

some chance that people might not like

it um but it's it's radical and new and

it's aesthetic aesthetically it's not

derivative it doesn't look like anything

else on the road um whereas all the

other sort of pickup trucks look like

vague copies of one another um they we

could afford to take a chance on failure

say like and talk it up to you know well

we tried you know we Tred to do

something interesting but but actually

by the way cyber truck's doing great um

so

uh but one of the things that I think is

important for Innovation is that you do

accept failure like like necessarily you

have to always look at the incentive

structure of an organization and say um

you know is is is that is that

organization properly incenting

innovation

um and with if you do Innovation you're

necessarily going to Uncharted Territory

so there going to be some mistakes they

going to be some

failures um and you have you have to

like like actually like for for SpaceX

uh rocket engine development like I keep

telling the team look if we're not

occasionally blowing up an engine on the

test stand we're not trying hard

enough you know um absolutely absolutely

how important are the P how important is

research and phds and that kind of stuff

I think of had seen somewhere you you

think most phds are

useless well I think most PhD thesis are

useless which I think is actually

objectively true if you look at how many

PhD you look at all how many phds are

created every year and how many of those

papers are actually used in anything

yeah um then objectively most PhD PCS

are have very low utility or maybe zero

um cuz nobody uses them um or so once in

a while you get something that is

spectacular but it's pretty rare um

perhaps something more useful um Ison in

the book that you haven't read uh talks

about your love for uh gaming in

particular like strategic ability gaming

and I've been thinking quite a lot about

it um what have you learned from from

those games and have have that learning

and wisdom been helpful when you have

been planning your

companies

yeah

I it's hard to say exactly what I've

learned from video games except that I I

do like playing video games as if I want

to take my mind off work I'll typically

play a very hard video game such as such

as which one well over the years there

been many many different video games um

so you know when I was a little kid it

was like you know pong and little tank

games and things and um and but if you

take a game like for example Civ ization

it's actually quite a good um it tells

you how how civilizations are formed

like I remember I remember playing the

original civilization with the

technology tree and and how you invent

different things you'd like invent

literacy and uh you know invent

democracy and invent gun gunpow all all

these things like and you start to

realize oh wow there's there are stages

to technology like you can't um you know

you can't actually get to democracy

without literacy um and um you know so

there's these these stages of of

Technology development or stages of

ideas that uh you know that's that's a

helpful framework for a company um and I

guess in in like like I say in recent

years there was there's a game I played

that was um actually developed in Sweden

called polyopia which is uh actually

quite a good game um like a lot of

people like playing chess but I think

chess is not a not a great um there's

not a lot of transfer learning from

chess to the real world because in chess

you've got only 64 squares uh it's a

setpiece battle same pieces every time

there are no terrain differences uh

there's no technology tree uh there's no

fog of War um but say a game like

polyopia has all of those things uh

random drain generation uh you know the

differences in attack and defense

bonuses depending on what type of

terrain um you've got 16 tribes I think

each with different abilities um you've

got uh a a technology tree that you can

choose to develop in different ways uh

and you've got of course fog of War um

so that I think is much more much closer

to reality yeah yeah

um um so I think politopia I mean I I

was I was playing Diablo uh for a while

pretty fun um Diablo as high level gets

very complicated they you could call it

like a a spreadsheet with a game

attached um so so that's that's and I

briefly got the the for about a day the

world record in this Avatar of zir on on

a four-person team of of clearing the

the hardest level um which was you know

not bad for someone who's like

53 basically we be 53

soon um there is still some uh twit

element to it and um it's hard to beat

kids at games with a twitch

element um but yeah I like uh I find

these games interesting if you can be

fully em mosted in a game it's

great yeah so we've had some we really

have had some technical problems today

unfortunately but um um Elon two

questions on corporate governance if I

may you know we are big shareholders in

your group um H and the first one is um

yeah we're back on sorry about these

technical things I'm not quite sure

where it comes from all right

to um some last questions here um as you

know we are big shareholders and uh made

a Model A lot of money uh on our

investment there seems to be some

latency

here

[Laughter]

okay I can hear you

here okay good sounds

good good to go

sorry I can you I think everyone can

hear

me let's see thumbs up if you can hear

me

let's try again okay okay sounds good

sounds good um now um what is the score

now of in terms of the Union in Sweden

and the collective

bargaining actually I I think uh I think

the storm has passed on that front I

think things

are reasonably good shape in Sweden

um

so uh yeah I think the are

good um yeah overall yeah I feel pretty

good about the future I mean you know

there's going to be bumpy quarters from

you know here and there but I think the

long-term future of Tesla is extremely

strong uh for example

um let's see can you guys hear me shoot

I'm back now

yeah we might be getting it might this

might be too overloaded or

something yeah I'm I'm back on just so

um yeah we met with uh we met with your

chair last month so we we have some

update but any any view on it why are

you

why why are you skeptical to

collected I playing with a soundboard

here

hello hello

hello

okay I think I think we're good yeah

last question for me um sorry I didn't

hear the answer here because I was out

but um we have covered this with with

your chair but just last question here

what do you want your legacy to

be I I don't I don't mind if uh my

legacy

is accurate or inaccurate uh provided

that I I di feeling that I've done the

right thing for the future of

Consciousness so just trying trying to

trying to have this light of

Consciousness last as long as possible

and maybe understand more about the

nature of the universe or simulation or

whatever this

is

so um I have a philos philosophy of

curiosity which is

to understand

the understand the universe understand

the nature of the universe um or even

what questions to

ask kind of like that I I I would say I

would subscribe to the Douglas Adams

hitas guys of the Galaxy School of

philosophy that we're trying to

understand what questions to ask about

the answer that is the

universe okay I think that's a good

place to end um for sure the life and

life on on this um Planet would have

been a lot more boring without you and

um

so I'm I'm glad to [ __ ] it up a little

totally all right well was good talking