When Will The Tech Jobs Come Back?

Summary

Will 分享了自己在软件开发领域的丰富经验，并探讨了技术职位的未来。他提到，尽管低利率可能会促使工作回归，但计算机科学专业的学生数量减少可能会延长这一过程。他还讨论了技术行业的变革，强调了软件开发以外的领域，如人工智能、机器人技术的投资趋势，以及这些变化对软件工程师职业前景的影响。Will 鼓励人们不断学习新技能，以适应行业变化。

Takeaways

• 📈 经济因素对科技工作的影响：利率下降和资金成本降低时，科技工作岗位可能会恢复。
• 🎓 计算机科学专业招生情况对就业市场的影响：如果招生人数减少，可能导致技术人才短缺，从而在3到5年内对雇主产生招聘压力。
• 🤖 技术行业的变革：技术不仅仅指软件开发，还包括硬件和其他创新，以及使事物变得更便宜和更快。
• 🚀 投资趋势的转变：目前对AI、LLMs和机器人技术的投资增加，可能影响传统软件开发的投资水平。
• 🌐 技术进步对职业角色的影响：技术进步导致某些职位（如Web开发、QA、服务器管理）的变化或消失。
• 🔄 技能集的扩展和更新：为了适应行业变化，技术人员需要不断学习新技能和扩展现有技能集。
• 📉 技术工作的市场变化：随着自动化和低代码/无代码工具的兴起，软件开发工作可能会减少，导致薪资压力和职位转变。
• 🏢 '暗工厂'概念的兴起：自动化和机器人技术的发展可能导致制造业和其他行业的工作性质发生根本变化。
• 💰 投资流向的转变：投资者可能更倾向于投资于数据管理和机器人技术，而不是传统的软件开发。
• 🛠️ 技能转型的重要性：软件开发人员可能需要转型到其他技术领域（如数据科学、机器人技术）以保持职业竞争力。
• 🔍 个人职业规划的重要性：考虑到就业市场的变化，技术人员需要关注职位趋势，并为未来的职业道路制定安全网和转型计划。

Q & A

视频中提到的Will的背景是什么？

Will在硅谷从事软件开发数十年，曾在苹果和赛门铁克等公司工作，并在2000年代转向咨询行业。他写了四本关于软件开发的书籍，并创立并出售了一个拥有85人的软件开发咨询公司。

Will在视频中想要讨论的主要问题是什么？

Will想要讨论的主要问题是技术工作何时会回归，特别是在当前经济形势下，裁员事件频发，人们关心的是工作机会何时会恢复。

Will如何预测技术工作回归的时间？

Will认为，当利率下降，资金变得廉价时，技术工作将会回归。他通过观察利率走势图，并结合计算机科学专业的大学报名人数变化，预测工作可能在当年夏天到两年后回归，如果计算机科学专业报名人数大幅下降，可能需要3到5年时间。

Will提到了哪些历史事件对他的观点产生了影响？

Will提到了他亲身经历的2001年和2008年的经济崩溃，以及90年代初期计算机科学并不被看作是一个增长领域。

Will认为技术工作的未来会有哪些变化？

Will认为技术工作的未来将不仅仅局限于软件开发，而是包括硬件、AI、LLMs（大型语言模型）和机器人技术等领域。他还提到了技术进步导致某些职位的变化或消失，如Web开发、QA和服务器管理等。

Will如何看待当前软件开发行业的发展趋势？

Will观察到，随着技术的发展，许多传统的软件开发工作正在被自动化和云计算取代。例如，AWS的演变、低代码/无代码工具的兴起，以及AI在UI设计和数据库管理中的应用，都在减少对传统软件开发人员的需求。

Will提到了哪些可能影响软件开发工作的投资趋势？

Will提到，投资者可能会将资金投向数据管理和机器人技术，而不是传统的软件开发。他提到了所谓的“暗工厂”概念，即高度自动化的工厂，以及亚马逊在机器人技术方面的巨额投资。

Will对于软件开发人员的职业发展有什么建议？

Will建议软件开发人员持续学习和扩展技能集，以适应行业变化。他提到，如果软件开发工作的数量逐年减少，可能会导致薪资压力和谈判能力下降，因此开发人员需要考虑转型或增加新的技能。

Will如何看待当前的经济形势对技术行业的影响？

Will认为，尽管当前的经济形势可能会导致软件开发工作的机会减少，但这也是一个机会，让人们重新思考自己的职业规划和未来的发展方向。他鼓励人们关注工作市场的变化，并为未来可能的变化做好准备。

Will在视频中提到了哪些具体的技术或工具？

Will提到了AWS、AI、LLMs、机器人技术、低代码/无代码工具如Flutterflow和Supabase等。这些技术和工具正在改变软件开发的方式，减少对传统开发人员的需求。

Will对于未来的技术工作有哪些预测？

Will预测，未来的技术工作可能会更多地集中在数据管理、AI、机器人技术等领域，而传统的软件开发工作可能会减少。他还提到，随着技术的进步，一些工作可能会完全消失，而新的工作机会可能会出现在意想不到的领域。

Outlines

00:00

👨‍💻 软件行业的过去与未来

本段落介绍了Will的背景，包括在硅谷为苹果和赛门铁克等公司工作的经历，以及他在2000年代初的咨询工作。Will还提到了他写的四本软件开发书籍和出售的软件开发咨询公司。他讨论了当前人们关心的问题：技术工作何时会回来。他提到，尽管利率下降和资金成本降低时工作机会会回来，但具体情况可能会受到计算机科学专业大学生入学人数的影响。Will还分享了他对于技术行业变化的看法，包括技术工作的定义及其对软件开发行业的影响。

05:01

🤖 技术发展与软件工程的未来

在这一段中，Will探讨了技术发展对软件工程行业的影响。他指出，技术不仅仅是软件开发，还包括硬件和其他创新，使得事物变得更好、更便宜。他提到了过去几十年软件行业的变化，如Web开发和手动QA的减少，以及服务器管理和Java开发的转变。Will还提到了AI和LLMs对行业的影响，以及他对机器人技术投资的关注。他强调，技术技能的需求正在变化，软件工程师需要不断扩展技能集以适应行业的发展。

10:04

💡 职业规划与技能发展

Will在这一段中讨论了职业规划和技能发展的重要性。他指出，即使目前有工作，也应关注行业变化和潜在风险。他建议关注工作板和行业动态，并思考未来几年的工作前景。Will提到，如果软件开发工作每年减少5%到10%，可能会对薪资和软件工程师的谈判产生压力。他还提到了数据和机器人领域的投资趋势，并强调了作为软件工程师，适应行业变化和投资于技能建设的重要性。

Keywords

💡软件发展

软件发展是指软件开发领域的进步和创新。在视频中，Will提到自己在软件发展领域工作了数十年，并且见证了从90年代至今的多次变革。软件发展是视频讨论的核心主题，探讨了技术工作的未来趋势。

💡裁员

裁员是指企业因各种原因减少员工数量的行为。视频中Will讨论了当前技术行业发生的裁员情况，并试图预测技术工作何时会恢复。

💡利率

利率是指借款人必须支付给贷款人的费用，通常以年利率表示。在视频中，Will提到利率下降时，资金成本降低，技术工作可能会恢复。

💡计算机科学

计算机科学是研究计算机及其应用的科学领域，包括软件和硬件的开发、设计和应用。视频中提到，如果现在计算机科学的大学入学人数大幅下降，可能会导致技术人才池缩小，从而在未来3到5年内对雇主招聘产生压力。

💡技术变革

技术变革指的是技术领域内发生的重大变化和创新，这些变化通常会对行业产生深远的影响。视频中，Will分享了他个人经历的几次技术变革，包括2000年和2008年的崩溃，以及当前正在发生的变革。

💡人工智能

人工智能是指使计算机系统模拟人类智能的技术，包括学习、推理、自我修正等能力。视频中，Will提到人工智能和大型语言模型（LLMs）是目前技术领域的热门话题，并且正在改变软件开发的方式。

💡机器人技术

机器人技术是指用于创建和操作机器人的技术，这些机器人可以执行各种任务，从简单的自动化任务到复杂的决策制定。视频中，Will提到机器人技术是近期吸引投资的领域之一，可能会影响软件开发工作的未来。

💡云计算

云计算是一种通过互联网提供计算资源（如服务器、存储、数据库、网络、软件、分析等）的技术。视频中，Will讨论了云计算如何改变传统的服务器管理和软件开发，使得工作更加侧重于数据流管理和云资源配置。

💡低代码/无代码工具

低代码/无代码工具是指允许用户通过图形界面和少量或没有代码来创建应用程序的平台。视频中，Will讨论了这些工具如何降低了开发应用程序的门槛，使得非技术人员也能够创建和部署应用程序。

💡技能发展

技能发展是指个人或团队获取新技能或提升现有技能以适应工作需求的过程。视频中，Will强调了在技术领域，不断学习新技能和适应变化是保持竞争力的关键。

💡投资

投资是指将资金、时间或其他资源投入到某个项目或领域，以期望在未来获得回报。视频中，Will讨论了投资者可能更倾向于投资于数据管理、人工智能和机器人技术，而不是传统的软件开发。

Highlights

Will拥有数十年的软件开发经验，曾在硅谷为苹果和赛门铁克等公司工作

Will在2000年代转向咨询行业，并撰写了四本关于软件开发的书籍

他曾建立并出售了一个85人的软件开发咨询公司，与各种规模的公司合作

讨论的主题是技术工作何时会回归，以及利率下降和资金成本的影响

计算机科学专业的大学生入学人数可能影响技术人才池和就业市场

Will亲历了2001年和2008年的经济危机，以及90年代初期的小型危机

技术不仅仅是软件开发，还包括事物变得更好、更便宜的过程

硬件和创新在技术发展中的作用

未来几年传统软件开发的投资可能会减少，而AI和LLM等技术将获得更多关注

机器人技术的投资正在增加，可能影响软件开发行业的未来

过去几十年软件行业的变化，如Web开发和手动QA的角色转变

云计算和服务器管理的变化，以及对Java开发者的影响

AWS的演变和对软件开发工作的影响

低代码和无代码工具的兴起，以及它们如何改变软件开发的工作性质

企业家使用无代码工具推出MVP，推迟聘请CTO等高级技术人员的趋势

投资者可能更倾向于投资数据管理和机器人技术，而非传统的软件开发

暗工厂概念的提出，自动化和技术进步可能对就业市场产生深远影响

传统软件开发人员可能需要转型，学习新的技能以适应行业变化

Will鼓励人们关注就业市场动态，思考未来的职业规划

Transcripts

Hi My name is Will and I've been working in software development for several decades now.

I started in the nineties in Silicon Valley working for companies like Apple and

Symantec and then I moved into consulting in the two thousands.

I've written four books on software development, and I built and sold an eighty five person

software development consulting company, which gave me a chance to work with a lot of companies

, everything from startups to a lot of big fortune five hundred.

So today I wanted to talk a little bit about a topic that's on the mind of a lot of folks And

the question is when will the tech jobs come back I did another video

about some of the layoffs and talking with a recruiter you can go check those out.

But at some point you start saying okay well we know that the layoffs are happening when will the jobs come back?

the most obvious simple answer is when interest rates drop and money is cheap Right The jobs come back.

if that's the answer, then you can bookmark this webpage the Fred website and take a guess.

looking at that chart I'm gonna guess It could be anywhere from this summer to two years from now.

the outside barrier on that I would guess would be if college enrollments in computer science

drop off a lot now then it could be closer to three to five years when the pool of CS talent

would shrink enough to start putting pressure back on employers for hiring.

the bad news is is that if it's gonna take three to five years for jobs to

come back and you just got laid off That doesn't do you a lot of good.

But it starts to give you an idea about how to kind of think about where things are gonna go.

Now that said, do think things are gonna be a little bit more complicated this time around I

personally lived through the two thousand and one and the two thousand and eight crashes and

there was kind of a…small crash at the early nineties as well which is when I got in CS was

not considered a growth thing necessarily it was sort of a thing that nerdy kids did.

and so what I wanna do is talk about the some of these struck changes that are happening that I

think might affect if and when the software development jobs come back.

And so the first thing that on that point that I wanna talk to is just to talk about the term technology.

So even in the thumbnail I said when are the tech jobs gonna come back And most people, I think

instinctively think of tech jobs as software development jobs, But that's not strictly accurate

That's actually a pretty recent just a few decades phenomenon That's been true.

For most of history technology really just referred to the process of things getting better And

that kind of looks like two things Either means that things get cheaper.

Or you have new products and innovations but, you know obviously things like hardware play a role.

And so we've kinda been emphasizing the software development side for quite some time and that's

partly because the speed and the velocity with which someone could theoretically get into the

software development space and then have things go to the moon brings a lot of attention and a lot of money.

The challenges is that it's not clear to me that the next few years we're gonna see the same

level of investment in traditional software development as a way to improve technology some of

that's kinda obvious because everybody's obviously so excited about AI and LLMs and and how that applies.

The one that's been catching my eye a lot lately has been a lot of the investments in robotics.

let's talk through that a little bit more if technology doesn't mean traditional software

development it means things getting cheaper and faster we actually can see how that has affected

the software industry itself over the last few decades.

For example back in the nineties there were a lot of web developers who were just writing HTML

and that was a whole career and job.

other roles that have been impacted like that over the

last years include things like QA It used to be manual QA was a big thing.

server management for IT A lot of people used to just manage individual servers, where the

server ratio might be ten servers for a person and now that could be hundreds or thousands of cloud based servers.

I've seen that affecting even the Java developers that I know A lot of them have over the last

few years moved from I write a Java app to managing

Java apps but you're also worrying a lot about things like managing your cloud clusters.

Or images and how you do the deploy or how do you tie an

existing caching in with auth to try to scale it out.

And so you're really doing a lot of data flow management, not necessarily writing Java code all

day long the theme that's underlying a lot of that has been out Right You either learn more and

add more to your skill sets or at some point you get out of the space So for example QA years

ago, probably fifteen years ago most of the manual QA got kind of

scrubbed out and replaced with test automation and SDS for example.

So that kind of made everybody say either you're in and you're gonna keep adding more and more

to your skill set or your out one of the canaries in the coal mine for me around all the stuff

has been watching how AWS has evolved over the last few years.

Basically…the dynamic is AWS can go to

its customers and ask what do you need and then that gets swapped out.

Where what used to be manual developer work or dev ops or what have you it just keeps moving

more and more into off the shelf stuff that you can get from AWS The sort of last evolution of

that even recently was probably some of these low code and no code tools and A lot of those

tools as a professional software engineer, you might look at and go well that doesn't really do

what I want it to do But if you can build an app with it that meets what you need that's probably good enough.

And when I look on entrepreneurial forums a lot of those guys are talking about things like

using no code tools to get their MVP launch So they're actually pushing back trying to bring on

a CTO type person because they wanna just get as far as they can validating their idea they do a

lot of software engineering work part of what's interesting about that is if you look at some of

those tools like for example here's Flutterflow which is a low code no code tool that does

mobile and web app stuff, they've added in an AI configuration

so you can generate UIs and the snippets of code that you need.

Using an AI interactively, similarly Supabase which is a

postgres managed service that provides a lot of extra add ons.

They've added, AI stuff right into their dashboard.

So part of the point there is that they're trying to lower the amount of work to get things done

, which is great, but it also means that the techs

skills levels to be productive with it shrank as well.

a lot of the entrepreneurs are using things like bubble or other platforms to just simply build

and launch their apps with drag and drop remember it's not about replacing all the jobs But if

we go through a few years where every year it's five to ten percent shrink

in the overall jobs for software development.

What that means is that we'll have a lot of price pressure on salaries and also

negotiation for the software engineering what that might look like is instead of six figure

developer jobs you get five figure developer slash configuration jobs potentially.

Right So think about like if you wanna manage your website, you don't go hire a full blown high

end software engineer to update your WordPress site The other one is is that a lot of the

investment that I'm seeing right now isn't going to the software developer space part of this is

because If the moats are low on software development, that means there's an investor you wanna

put your money in other places So obviously that might look like data.

Right if you wanna build an LLM or provide other services that might mean you're gonna put money

into acquiring or managing large data sources and then crunching that.

And then the other one is robotics. There's a term I've heard recently called Dark Factory The

idea is is that if you have enough automation in the factory you can just turn the lights off

And then…inputs come in, the

robots do their thing and products roll out the other side.

if you're an investor, what do you put your money in Do you go build a new app?

What does that even mean What does that look like And especially if the moats are so low given…

you know AI can just build a lot of these things, or do you put your money into a new dark factory.

Right? Um and some of this stuff may be actually really good for us in the big scheme of things

For example, I've been tracking and finding things

like prefab housing very interesting where a factory can produce a house.

So what would it mean to deal with some of the housing crisis issues in the United States if

robotics and factory work is able to then allow us

to dramatically decrease the cost of new construction for folks.

Right? Another example of this Amazon just announced this huge investment in robotics.

And…that money is paired up with money from Open

AI, which is also paired up with all these other huge sums Right?

So where this comes back is if you're a traditional software developer, and you're sitting

there looking at this going well, Going from building

rest services to doing robotics is non trivial.

Right Same thing with moving from I do rest services to I wanna do data science.

So again that kind of comes back to well, what or how are you going to

invest in…building a skill set Right?

in the another video I talked a little about some of the ways to get a new job and and how to

think about your skill set and expanding it I don't know that I would say that like all the jobs

are gonna go away This is a thing that people are talking about now but it's gonna take years or

maybe a decade or more to deploy this stuff I don't know that the hype curve's

gonna you know really fall out the way they're just gonna wipe everything out.

But if you're looking at an environment where you're used to getting six figure work as a

software engineer, And that might look like five figure work for the next three to five years

That…implicitly means a lot of changes in life and how we approach things Right So anyway I

think that part of the point here is not to depress anybody.

Even though that might be hard if especially if you just got let go, but to kind of think about

it as a we're all in very similar boats right now.

Right? even if you have a job that you feel, you know covers what you need today, the

risk and concern factors with all the layoffs and everything else should…be cause for concern.

And when you're doing your planning you need to think about whether or not those roles doing it

the way that you did it before…are going to come back in the same way.

So pay a lot of attention to the job boards and and what's going on And just also kind of think

about at what point do you have a conversation…about what the future's gonna look like for you

in this environment What does it mean to be in a space where the jobs might just contract for

five to ten percent for the next three years Right?

So with that in mind, I'm hoping to do more videos on this topic I do wanna talk a little bit

more about how the macroeconomic components interact in with this.

And also some of the other options for folks that are currently doing software development today

, but they kinda wanna build some safety nets and some transition plans

and things like that So I hope this was helpful for you and interesting.

gave you some food for thought all the usual things like and subscribe and all that fun stuff

Thank you so much for your time and talk to you later Bye