Alastair Crooke: Hezbollah' Missiles RAIN DOWN On Israel! Prepares For The UNTHINKABLE in Next 48h

Summary

The transcript discusses Israel's military strategy against Hezbollah, involving escalation to force a settlement and the ineffectiveness of targeting communications. It highlights Hezbollah's resilience, operational practices, and the potential for a larger conflict involving the US. The speaker also addresses the civilian impact, the role of the US in negotiations, and the likelihood of Netanyahu's UN address amidst the conflict.

Takeaways

• 📈 Israel's strategy is to escalate in order to deescalate by forcing Hezbollah to agree to a settlement.
• 🏡 The displacement of residents in Israel's north and their return is a key objective of the escalation.
• 🚨 The losses inflicted on Hezbollah, including the pager attack and assassinations, are presented as significant but are considered tolerable and tactical.
• 📡 Hezbollah's communication infrastructure has shifted to optical fiber, making the idea of them losing communication capabilities outdated.
• 👮‍♂️ Hezbollah's military forces do not rely on pagers or walkie-talkies; these are used by their civilian police force.
• 🎯 Even with complete communication loss, Hezbollah's operational practices ensure the continuation of conflict as planned.
• 🔄 Hezbollah grooms successors at all senior levels, ensuring continuity of leadership despite assassinations.
• 🚀 Israel's air attacks are ineffective against Hezbollah's deeply buried rocket and missile infrastructure.
• 🌐 The conflict is also about Israel's attempt to force Hezbollah into an overreaction that might draw in international support.
• 🗓️ The situation is fluid, with Netanyahu possibly not attending the UN due to the ongoing escalation, and the future uncertain.

Q & A

What is the main strategy Israel is employing according to the transcript?

Israel is betting on escalation to deescalate, aiming to force Hezbollah to agree to a settlement by removing their forces from the south, allowing displaced Israeli residents to return to their homes.

How does the speaker characterize the losses Hezbollah has suffered?

The speaker suggests that while the losses are undoubtedly painful, they are tolerable and tactical, not affecting the core fighting force of Hezbollah.

What is Hezbollah's communication strategy as described in the transcript?

Hezbollah has moved to optical fiber communications, and even if they lose communication totally, they have operational practices to continue the war as planned and trained.

What does the speaker claim about the effectiveness of Israel's air attacks?

The speaker claims that Israel's air attacks are largely ineffective because they are not stopping Hezbollah's operations and are causing civilian losses.

How does the speaker describe the role of young officers in Hezbollah?

The speaker describes young officers in Hezbollah as very professional, well-trained, and prepared to take over leadership roles, ensuring continuity despite the loss of senior officials.

What is the potential outcome if Hezbollah is pushed too far, according to the transcript?

If Hezbollah is pushed too far, they may overreact, potentially bringing in a bigger war and forcing the involvement of the United States.

What is the speaker's view on the effectiveness of the negotiators like Amos Hochstein and Bill Burns?

The speaker views the negotiators' efforts as ineffective and believes that Netanyahu was never serious about reaching a ceasefire.

What does the speaker suggest about the Israeli strategy of escalation?

The speaker suggests that Israel is betting on escalation to force Hezbollah into an agreement or to provoke a reaction that could escalate the war to a level that draws in international support.

How does the speaker assess the endurance of the Lebanese people and Hezbollah?

The speaker assesses the endurance of the Lebanese people and Hezbollah as high, with a history of absorbing losses and continuing their path.

What is the speaker's prediction regarding Netanyahu's address to the United Nations?

The speaker predicts that Netanyahu is unlikely to attend the United Nations due to the ongoing escalation, unless there is a significant change in the situation.

What does the speaker imply about the United States' response to the conflict?

The speaker implies that the United States' response has been weak and lacks a strong stance, with a focus on supporting Israel's right to self-defense without condemning the attacks on civilians.