Fmr. MI6 Agent REVEALS: Netanyahu's DESTRUCTIVE Plans. Ukraine's Last Desperate Moves

Summary

The transcript discusses the potential dismissal of Israel's defense minister and the ramifications of Israel's security strategy. Prime Minister Netanyahu is contemplating military action against Hezbollah, which could shift defense leadership. Factors like political tensions, the urgency of military deadlines due to weather, and the prospect of further conflicts with Gaza and Lebanon are highlighted. The transcript also touches on international reactions, including skepticism from the U.S., and outlines Israel's broader ambitions in Gaza and the West Bank. It concludes with reflections on Netanyahu's leadership and the radical goals of some factions in his government.

Takeaways

• ⚔️ Netanyahu is considering sacking Defense Minister Galant and replacing him with either Gideon Sa'ar or Israel Katz, due to disagreements over military actions against Hezbollah.
• 📅 A critical factor influencing Israeli military decisions is the weather, as the Israeli Air Force cannot operate effectively in bad weather, limiting potential action to the next 2-3 weeks.
• 🇱🇧 Gideon Sa'ar has stated that he would only join the cabinet if there is a military attack on Lebanon, believing that countries attacking Israel should lose territory.
• 💥 Galant has opposed military action against Hezbollah, causing tension within the Israeli cabinet as Netanyahu pushes for a more aggressive approach.
• 💣 Both Gideon Sa'ar and Israel Katz support military action against Hezbollah, further escalating the potential for conflict in Lebanon.
• 🕊️ There is a growing recognition in Israel and the U.S. that no significant deal with Gaza or Hezbollah is likely to materialize in the near future.
• 🌍 International confusion surrounds Netanyahu’s strategy, with U.S. officials reportedly bewildered by Israel’s ongoing conflicts with Hamas and Lebanon.
• 🏠 Netanyahu’s government sees annexation of parts of Gaza and the West Bank as a strategic victory, advancing the radical agenda of expanding Israeli territory.
• 💬 European intelligence has reported that a Hezbollah attack on an Israeli base resulted in casualties, contradicting early reports of no damage.
• ⏳ Netanyahu faces political deadlines, including his return to court over corruption charges in December, which may impact the longevity of his government.

Q & A

What is the primary topic discussed in the security cabinet meeting mentioned in the script?

The primary topic discussed in the security cabinet meeting is the potential replacement of the defense minister, Gantz, by Netanyahu, as well as the possibility of a military attack on Lebanon. Netanyahu is considering either Gideon Sa'ar or the current foreign minister, Israel Katz, as potential replacements for Gantz.

Why is Netanyahu considering sacking Defense Minister Gantz?

Netanyahu is considering sacking Defense Minister Gantz because Gantz has been opposing a potential military action against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Netanyahu and others in his cabinet are pushing for. This opposition is seen as a hindrance to Netanyahu’s plans.

What condition has Gideon Sa'ar set for joining the cabinet as defense minister?

Gideon Sa'ar has stated that he would only join the cabinet as defense minister if there is a military attack on Lebanon. He believes that anyone attacking Israel must lose territory, which reflects his stance on taking a strong military approach.

What are the potential ramifications of removing Defense Minister Gantz?

The removal of Defense Minister Gantz could have both political and popular ramifications. Gantz is seen as an advocate for the release of hostages, and his removal may cause disquiet among the public. Additionally, it could influence the military's stance, as Gantz has been a key figure opposing an immediate attack on Hezbollah.

Why is the timing of a potential military action against Hezbollah limited?

The timing for a potential military action against Hezbollah is limited by weather conditions. The Israeli Air Force cannot conduct close support operations in Lebanon during bad weather, and winter is approaching. This means any action would need to take place within the next two or three weeks before weather conditions worsen.

What is the general perception in Washington regarding Netanyahu’s actions?

There is bemusement in Washington regarding Netanyahu's actions, with confusion over why he is engaging in what are seen as ‘pointless wars’ against Hamas and Lebanon. They do not understand why Netanyahu does not offer a political solution to the Palestinians and are puzzled by his strategy.

What is the view of the radical faction within Netanyahu’s government regarding territorial gains?

The radical faction within Netanyahu's government sees the current situation as a victory, as they believe they are advancing their goal of expanding Israeli territory. They aim to annex parts of Gaza and the West Bank and believe that their tactics will lead to the expansion of Israel without relinquishing any territory.

What challenges is the Palestinian Authority facing in the West Bank?

The Palestinian Authority is facing severe financial and administrative challenges in the West Bank. There is a significant economic squeeze on Palestinians, with restrictions on work in Israel, and efforts to bankrupt the Palestinian Authority. This is creating tensions and could lead to an explosion of unrest or increased emigration.

What is the significance of the potential action against Hezbollah for Netanyahu’s government?

A potential action against Hezbollah is seen as a decisive move for Netanyahu’s government. Success in such an action could strengthen Netanyahu’s position and prolong his government's tenure, especially as he faces legal challenges related to corruption in the coming months.

How does the international community perceive Netanyahu's actions, according to Amos Yadlin?

According to Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli intelligence assessments, the international community, particularly in Washington, is bewildered by Netanyahu’s actions. They do not understand the purpose of the ongoing conflicts and are concerned that Netanyahu’s government is not offering any political horizon to the Palestinians, which could help in de-escalating the situation.

Outlines

00:00

⚖️ Political Ramifications and Possible Ministerial Changes

This paragraph discusses the potential sacking of Defense Minister Gant by Prime Minister Netanyahu, considering replacing him with either Gideon Sa or Foreign Minister Katz. It highlights ongoing discussions surrounding a military attack on Lebanon, which Gideon Sa supports, insisting on territorial losses for any attacker of Israel. The paragraph also touches on internal military opposition, concerns about overstretched forces, and the broader recognition that diplomatic deals with Gaza or Hezbollah are unlikely.

05:00

🗺️ Failed Diplomacy and Regional Impasse

This section focuses on diplomatic failures involving Hezbollah and Lebanon. U.S. efforts, led by Amos Hin, have not succeeded in resolving the conflict, as Hezbollah remains entrenched in southern Lebanon. The French, too, are seen more as vying for leverage with Israel than finding a real solution. A recent missile strike, possibly hypersonic, evaded Israeli defense systems and raised concerns, as Israeli press reports reveal conflicting details about the attack’s effectiveness. Escalations from Yemen and Hezbollah are also addressed.

10:02

🔥 Escalating Conflict and Political Confusion

The third paragraph examines the confusion in Washington regarding Netanyahu's military strategies, particularly with seemingly aimless conflicts against Hamas and Lebanon. U.S. officials reportedly do not understand why Netanyahu isn't offering a political horizon, such as a two-state solution, to avoid continuous wars. On the other hand, some Israeli factions, seeking to annex parts of Gaza and push Palestinians south, see these military operations as strategic victories. Meanwhile, tensions escalate in the West Bank, with the Palestinian Authority facing economic and political collapse.

15:06

🌧️ Weather and Political Timelines: Constraints on Israeli Action

This section analyzes looming deadlines for Israeli military action, with weather conditions and Netanyahu's upcoming court case influencing decisions. Israel may have a limited window to act militarily in Lebanon due to adverse weather in winter. If Netanyahu can replace Defense Minister Galant, his government’s lifespan might extend. The paragraph also references a broader ideological push by certain Israeli groups aiming for territorial expansion and their sense of urgency.

20:06

💼 International Repercussions and the Role of NATO

This final paragraph delves into international responses, focusing on how Ukraine's war has drained NATO resources. Some in Washington are questioning NATO's effectiveness and relevance. Putin's remarks about Ukraine's diminishing military capabilities are noted, suggesting the war may soon favor Russia. The paragraph also reflects on the ideological alignment in Europe regarding Ukraine, with voices warning about the consequences of dissenting from the pro-Ukraine stance. The narrative underscores growing disillusionment with the conflict's progress and cost.

Keywords

💡Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, plays a central role in the security cabinet meeting. He is contemplating significant military and political actions, including the dismissal of Defense Minister Galant and potential military attacks on Lebanon. Netanyahu’s decisions are crucial to the ongoing conflicts with Gaza, Hezbollah, and broader regional security concerns.

💡Galant

Yoav Galant is the Israeli Defense Minister whom Netanyahu is considering dismissing. Galant has opposed military action against Hezbollah, which contrasts with the more aggressive positions of others in the Israeli cabinet. His removal could have political and military consequences, especially regarding the release of hostages and Israel's broader military strategy.

💡Hezbollah

Hezbollah is a Lebanon-based militant group that poses a significant threat to Israel. The Israeli government is debating whether to launch a military strike against Hezbollah to neutralize this threat. The group’s recent attacks, such as drone strikes, have raised tensions, and military action against it is seen as necessary by some within the Israeli government.

💡Gaza

Gaza is a focal point of Israel's military operations, with Netanyahu’s government engaging in conflict with Hamas. However, it is widely understood that a diplomatic deal in Gaza is unlikely, leading the Israeli leadership to consider military alternatives. Hostage situations and military engagements in Gaza are contributing to the broader tensions in the region.

💡Gideon Sa'ar

Gideon Sa'ar is a political figure who has been considered for the position of Defense Minister, replacing Galant. Sa'ar has stated that his condition for joining the cabinet is a military attack on Lebanon, reflecting his hardline stance. His involvement would signal a more aggressive Israeli military posture, particularly towards Hezbollah.

💡Hostages

The issue of hostages, particularly those held in Gaza, is a significant aspect of the debate within the Israeli government. Galant has been seen as an advocate for their release, and his potential dismissal could shift the government's focus away from diplomatic solutions toward more aggressive military actions.

💡Lebanon

Lebanon, specifically southern Lebanon, is the potential target of Israeli military action due to the presence of Hezbollah. The weather and seasonal changes are also critical factors in the timing of any potential strikes, as the Israeli Air Force cannot conduct close support operations in bad weather.

💡Amos Yadlin

Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli intelligence, provides critical insights into the views from Washington regarding Netanyahu’s actions. His reports highlight confusion in the U.S. over why Israel continues to engage in what are seen as attritional wars against Hamas and Hezbollah without a clear political resolution, such as a two-state solution.

💡Jabotinsky

Jabotinsky refers to the ideological faction within Israel that advocates for an expanded Israeli state, from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, without Palestinian presence. This radical view is motivating certain segments of Netanyahu’s government, influencing their aggressive military and territorial strategies, particularly in Gaza and the West Bank.

💡West Bank

The West Bank is another area of Israeli focus, where increased pressure is being placed on Palestinians by Israeli settlers and the government. Smotrich, an Israeli politician, is administering economic policies that squeeze the Palestinian Authority and its people, contributing to the broader strategy of territorial expansion and weakening Palestinian presence.

Highlights

Netanyahu plans to sack defense minister Gant and replace him with Gideon Sa or foreign minister Katz.

Gideon Sa is willing to join the cabinet only if Israel conducts a military attack on Lebanon.

Netanyahu has expressed interest in attacking Hezbollah, but Galant has opposed it.

There is a growing understanding in both Israeli and American circles that a deal in Gaza is unlikely to happen.

Israel's military is worried about overstretching its resources if it engages in a conflict with Hezbollah.

The Israeli Air Force would not be able to operate in Lebanon in bad weather, giving a two-to-three-week window for potential action.

Gideon Sa emphasized that any entity attacking Israel should lose territory as a price.

Israel faces internal political pressure, with growing unrest about the release of hostages in Gaza.

The French government is seen as trying to gain leverage with Israel rather than seeking a real solution to the conflict.

Yemen launched a hypersonic missile that evaded Israeli defense systems, causing an escalation in tensions.

A Hezbollah drone attack on an Israeli intelligence base in Tel Aviv resulted in significant casualties, undermining Israeli defense capabilities.

Washington is bewildered by Netanyahu's multiple ongoing wars, questioning their purpose.

Netanyahu's government is pushing for a new expulsion of Palestinians, aiming to annex the northern part of Gaza.

The radical right-wing Israeli factions see this annexation of Gaza as a major victory, believing they are expanding territory.

Pressure is mounting on the Palestinian Authority, especially in the West Bank, due to Israel’s economic and administrative policies.

Transcripts

security cabinet meeting a cabinet

meeting taking place really I think

still as we're speaking and at the

cabinet meeting uh Netanyahu has made

plain in advance of the meeting uh and

it is reflected across the um Hebrew

press anyway that um he plans or he's

thinking uh of sacking the defense

minister uh Gant and replacing him

either with Gideon sa who this

discussions been taking place with

Gideon s to come in as defense minister

or possibly even the foreign minister

cats um but that is ongoing at the

moment uh and there are ramifications

from it because Gideon s has own

said um to journalists um but reflecting

his talks with the Prime Minister that

he'll only join the cabinet uh provided

there is an attack on Lebanon a military

attack and he said and he explained that

in saying anyone that attacks Israel

must lose territory that is the price to

pay um and Katz also is in favor of an

attack netan who's for some time been

saying he wants to move against um he

wants to move against Hezbollah but that

Galant has been opposing it um and it's

um blocking trying to block um the

military from taking the necessary

action I think first of all um the

ramifications of removing Galant um

there would be um political I mean uh

popular that is sort of ground disire

about it because he's seen as an

advocate for the re release of hostages

but now I think widely understood across

I mean the Israeli establishment as well

as the American establishment um that a

Gaza deal is just not going to happen uh

I think it's widely understood now um

that a deal on Hezbollah a Lebanon deal

by uh Amos hin is not going to happen

both of this is now being sort of uh

understood and assimilated and so I

think that um uh from that although

there will be some disqui about the host

ages and and even today there's news

that more hostages were killed um in in

in Gaza um that it is becoming much more

broadly accepted amongst the Army who

have been opposed because they're

overstretched and they worry about being

overstretched and they're worried about

going to war in Hezbollah whether they

will be able to manage this um but it's

becoming accepted that really um what

are the Alternatives Israel doesn't have

many Alternatives either a deal in Gaza

that will bring qu and maybe bring qu to

the to the southern Lebanon or or else

they have to take uh action against

Hezbollah and if you like destroy the

the threat and then return um if you

like people uh to the north so this is

really the the the the situation there's

another thing that I think I should

mention because it's important there are

a number of deadlines around that face

Netanyahu um but one of those deadlines

that is a general one is the weather um

the Israeli Air Force cannot do close

support operations in uh Lebanon um in

bad weather so we have about 2 or three

weeks until the weather turns and winter

begins a and then Israel will not go to

war uh against uh Lebanon in December or

even November it's just but certainly is

not possible so if action doesn't take

place in this next two or three weeks

which we have to wait and see what is

decided at this cabinet meeting but if

uh action does not take place then they

will have to wait till next year uh in

order to take some sort of action that

might hope to return um the displaced

residents to their homes quite a long

quite a long period uh I think in some

ways uh emmer Hawkin has actually played

it in the sense that um he's acted on

behalf of Israel in these negotiations

not on behalf of the United States

incidentally he's removed himself from

state department at the outset and most

of the state department experts in the

were removed and he he's a oneman band

operating out of the White House with a

secretary and that is about all uh and

he hasn't really there's no real

correspondence with the um at all with

the French who are acting there but the

French are reallyi again trying to gain

leverage with Israel more than they're

trying to find a solution um but he's

not succeeded at allus hin has not got

any sort of solution

uh to the question indeed I don't think

there is a solution in the terms in

which he's looking for one uh it's

inconceivable that uh Hezbollah would

remove themselves from the the South

they've been there 500 years they're not

going to suddenly disappear to the north

of the lon so no he has not he has not

produced and that I think is now

understood and I think uh equally um

it's understood uh whatever they may be

saying in sort of optimistic terms that

there is no deal coming from uh if you

like in Gaza that would change uh the

situation dramatically so what is the

way out I mean you know the attrition

continues uh we had only over this

weekend last night the yenes were firing

a missile uh which they said um was a

Hypersonic missile I don't know whether

it was Hypersonic or whether it was new

technology there's no certainty of what

it was was um but now um it evaded andom

it evaded um the Israeli defense systems

and landed at an

unmentioned or an undescribed location

close to borian airport and the airport

was shut uh for a period the Israeli

press initially the Israeli press came

out and said um oh well it had landed an

empty uh empty field and there was no

problem now the Israeli press are saying

it hit the target as intended and evaded

all of the Israeli defense systems much

as you remember you remember I was on

the program and we were talking about

hezbollah's attack on guot base um This

was um their response to the killing of

wukar in in bout the

assassination H and uh initially it was

said there was first of all all

censorship imposed and said there was no

no effect nothing was happened they

there was no

destruction now European intelligence

service have been reporting um to their

context quite widely and it's been

confirmed by others that in fact in giot

in that

8200 um base in the uh mosad base just

near herzelia um in Tel Aviv um that

there were 22 kills and 74 injured with

the attack drones that were fired by his

buah and more details are supposed to be

uh coming out shortly so I mean there is

a a real sense and there's have

been much uh talk in in in Israel at the

moment and saying you know the we can't

allow this to stand um Yemen is a

declared war on us we it's attack

attacked us in in a vital area and we

had no defense to it or the defenses did

not work and so they have two major sort

of um escalations taking place uh at the

same time it's been very interesting

we've had a a report back from a very

credible Israeli he was the head of

intelligence assessments Amos yadlin a

very a professional not a political

person at all and he been doing the runs

in Washington

and he said you know the the in

Washington and he's speaking generally

doesn't name names in it but it's very

detailed and that was put out on channel

12 and he said um uh in Washington

there's complete um uh bemusement what

is Netanyahu doing why are we having all

of these wars why are we having these

wars taking place these sort of um

pointless Wars um attritional Wars

against Hamas and against Lebanon and we

don't understand what is the point and

we don't understand why Netanyahu just

doesn't give a

political Horizon to the Palestinians I

either the two- State solution and they

see him uh as pursuing it and they

suggest everything was wait on the

elections nothing must be done to harm

um the candidates prospects in this

election that's coming up in the United

States um but after that Netanyahu be

told stop the wars stop the wars um I I

don't think they have any understanding

of something that I just you know just

want to say very briefly that from the

prospects of from the perspective of of

the right of if you like this um of the

group that is Seeking a new nakba in um

that is a new expulsion of the

Palestinians from their perspective

they're winning I know that sounds like

double dutch to many people listening

sure but they think they are going to be

able to um take back the um northern end

of

Gaza exclude the Palestinians move them

South starve out the ones that are North

Annex the north of Gaza the northern

portion of Gaza Annex it and then put

settlers into it and for them this is

huge Victory because For the First Time

in 50 years Israel will be adding

territory and not relinquishing it now I

know it means nothing to people um in

the United States but in terms of the

thinking and understanding of this what

I call the radical

jabotinsky people who are looking for a

state from the from the river to the sea

with no um Palestinians in it um this is

a huge Victory to be again as I said to

you Gideon sa just said you know every

state must lose territory but this is

Israel thinking and at the same time

there's been little understanding of how

far they are advancing the project in

West Bank not so much and you see people

disappearing and leaving and going off

to the West Bank yet

but a huge squeeze is being imposed they

are going to bankrupt the Palestinian

Authority they are putting a squeeze on

all Palestinians who can't normally work

in in Israel and are getting very little

income at all uh and more importantly

schri who is if you like

administers um uh the West Bank um in a

different way as uh both Finance

Minister and is also he has a deputy he

Deputy defense minister um The Squeeze

is on in the West Bank and we will start

to see either an explosion there or

people starting to leave with the

settlers putting them under pressure uh

in the north so from the perspective of

Netanyahu and part of his

cabinet this is a winning hand and

what's more they feel you know this is

our l chance at it we're really going to

be able to you know create the land of

Israel W with our tactics but we have to

deal with Hezbollah and that's on the

agenda too and as I say there are

certain deadlines coming up one of them

is the weather will deteriorate soon in

Autumn the other is by um December um

Netanyahu will go before the courts

again his his his process will return to

the courts um if you recall it's a

corruption process a legal process that

been suspended um but that will come

before the course if he's able to get

rid of Galant point it then probably the

the government's life will

be the government's life will be

extended and will will will continue so

um you know these are the uh the

unstated and it's not seemingly under

stood in in in the reports coming back

from Amos yadlin um who's as I say a

former head of intelligence of isra and

he says this is how they see it he

doesn't comment on it he just says this

is how they see it they're beused

they're bewildered what's Netanyahu

playing at they do not understand the

sort of

eschatological if you like the the

radical element of those who want to

pursue um a a jabotinsky outcome uh in

uh in in Israel and to restore the land

of Israel um they just see it as a

pointless attrition why is he fighting

these wars I mean why doesn't he just

give the

Palestinians some sort of some sort of

horizon for um uh for peace um well no

one in Israel is prepared to give the

Palestinians a State and in fact smrd

unseen by most of us but in stealth in

the last 20 months has been

extinguishing it legally it's no longer

occupied territory under the legal form

it has become if you like a part of the

administration his administration which

he administers through the police and

the security forces I think there are

two halves to that I think uh vladis

bosto

um uh President Putin made it very clear

that he said he said in very confident

and clear statement uh that the

Ukrainian armed forces are almost at the

point of being combat incapable they can

no longer sustain combat um as a as an

entity as a military force that they're

near incapable of maintaining combat the

Ukrainian Armed Forces as a whole and he

says which was the whole

purpose and I think that implies that he

believes that um with the the fall of

this crucial Hub um pesque which is just

seemingly uh a being surrounded from the

south and probably there will be a

strike soon um that uh there will be the

collapse of the capability to maintain

Army and although it won't happen

immediately and no doubt there will be

efforts to sustain it through to the

American election although that is true

um at the same time ultimately um the

political structures in KF the political

apparatus will start unraveling because

they are based they are levered simply

on the capability to provide combat

against Russia they have no political

legitimacy indeed they have no

constitutional legitimacy as things

stand so I I expect that du Co I I

should imagine President Putin um would

see it in the same way that that will

unravel and at that point that it

unravels that uh there will be uh the

prospect of coming of a new team coming

into KF and that it will be

possible I don't think Moscow will need

an intermediate

even for that I mean it will be just a

straightforward discussion this is the

last desperate play he's got if his army

is going to soon going to be incapable

of sustaining combat the only thing he

can hope for um is that the West will

take the bait and um agree to fire

longer range sto Storm Shadow by the way

is not longer long longer range the

attacks is about 300 km but the Storm

Shadow is only about 150 so it won't be

a big change with Storm Shadow but it's

not the point the point that um Putin is

objecting to is the is the prospect that

as a matter of policy the West is ready

to see weapons fired throughout the

extent of if you like uh 1914 Russia

that it is accepting that and for him as

he made very here in his statement that

is a declaration of war and there will

be consequences and I think his very

clear and precise statement will have

unnerved many uh Britain and America I'm

not sure about Britain but certainly the

US is is looking very carefully uh at at

what he said because he was very clear

and said this is a red line quite a lot

of the other red lines were red lines

that were invented by the west and said

ah you see he doesn't stick with his red

lines they weren't ever enunciated by

Russia they were enunciated by the West

saying imputing a red line when

sometimes they didn't exist not a

benefit but an absolute drain on NATO

just as it's been all this time it's

emptied uh NATO of most of its weapons

of its shells of its missiles and air

defenses all have been destroyed so it's

an absolute drain on NATO and it's not

surprising that um there are voices in

in Washington that are questioning you

know the cost benefit of NATO I mean is

NATO really I mean Trump said it maybe

we can just do without NATO and you know

the Europeans can deal with Russia as

they choose I mean maybe that's a you

know where where we're going and that's

the direction of of traveling and I

think I mean what we're seeing with um

Boris Johnson making statements like

this is is is really again what I say is

you know this is the attempt to keep the

sort of ideological alignment across

Europe and across everyone must pay a

bance to support for Ukraine or be

described as an extremist or a purveyor

of disinformation and therefore should

be uh you know worry about their job in

their future because if you're regarded

uh as a supplier of disinformation then

sanctions will be brought against you

and perhaps your employer will no one

longer wish to employ you or your bank

provide Financial Services to this is I

mean this is really the the land we're

in where we're being obliged to pretend

something that is just evidently not

true that Ukraine can win that Ukraine

is a benefit to Nato um that we need to

support Ukraine that Ukraine is

naturally part of Europe it's not

naturally part of Europe even the West

apart from a few parts of it are slav

just like Russians are slav um and they

speak a dialect of Russian it's not

something the the claim that they

somehow descend from the Vikings um and

that they speak a special sort of

ancient language has been debunked uh

long ago they're all of the same stalk

it's a sort of Civil War it is not

actually a a war of the r say