中国新能源汽车，是否实现了弯道超车？｜小米SU7｜比亚迪｜xiaomi｜雷军｜BYD｜新能源｜王局拍案20240402

Summary

本次演讲讨论了小米汽车SU7的竞争力，强调其续航里程和充电速度的优势，以及小米汽车在价格上的吸引力。演讲者通过个人经历比较了小米汽车与特斯拉的性能差异，并展望了小米汽车可能对电动汽车行业规则带来的改变。同时，演讲者还分析了中国电动汽车行业的快速发展，归因于中国市场的庞大需求、政府的工业政策支持、以及从燃油车到电动车的产业转型。演讲者认为，中国的国家资本主义在经济发展中展现出了强大的能量，特别是在工业政策的决策和执行方面。

Takeaways

• 🚗 小米SU7产品实力强劲，如果定价与特斯拉Model 3相同，许多消费者会选择小米SU7。
• 💰 小米汽车的定价为215,900元人民币，具有竞争力。
• 🌟 雷军在小米汽车发布会上详细介绍了小米汽车的各项功能，并对发布会做了精心准备。
• 🔋 小米汽车的续航里程令人印象深刻，入门款车型续航里程可达700公里，Max车型可达800公里。
• ⚡ 充电速度快是小米汽车的一大亮点，5分钟充电可行驶210公里，15分钟可达510公里。
• 🔄 小米汽车的市场反响热烈，上市24小时内售出89,000辆。
• 📈 小米公司以成本控制著称，进入手机市场后改变了行业规则，使智能手机更加普及。
• 🚀 中国电动车行业在全球市场中的份额达到67%，每三辆电动车中就有两辆是中国制造。
• 🛠️ 中国电动车行业的快速发展得益于政府的强力支持和政策引导，包括补贴、税收优惠和低息贷款等。
• 🌍 欧盟成为中国电动车最大的出口市场，中国电动车的出口均价已达到22,000美元。
• 🛑 欧盟对中国电动车发起反补贴调查，显示出中国电动车在欧洲市场的竞争力。

Q & A

小米SU7的产品优势是什么？

小米SU7的产品优势在于其强大的性能和相对较低的定价。即使与特斯拉Model 3定价相同，许多消费者也会选择小米SU7。

小米汽车的最终定价是多少？

小米汽车的最终定价为219,900元人民币。

雷军在小米汽车发布会上做了哪些准备工作？

雷军为小米汽车发布会做了细致的准备，据说他亲自驾驶小米汽车从北京到上海，沿途进行各种宣传。

小米汽车的续航里程如何？

小米汽车的续航里程表现优异，具体数据尚未公布。

Outlines

00:00

🚗 小米SU7产品优势与市场反响

小米SU7以其强大的产品实力和竞争力吸引消费者，价格定位与特斯拉Model 3相当，预计会受到市场欢迎。在小米汽车的新闻发布会上，雷军详细介绍了小米汽车的各项功能，并分享了他亲自驾驶小米汽车从北京到上海的经历。小米汽车的入门级车型续航里程达到700公里，顶级车型更是达到800公里，远超同类产品。此外，小米汽车的充电速度也非常快，5分钟充电可行驶210公里，15分钟可达510公里。小米汽车上市后24小时内销售量达到89000辆，显示出市场的高度认可。

05:02

🌏 中国电动汽车产业的国际竞争与批评

中国电动汽车产业近年来取得了显著的发展，但海外华人自媒体对此持有质疑态度，认为中国产业依靠低成本和劳动密集型模式，难以与发达国家竞争。然而，中国电动汽车产业实际上已经实现了跨越式发展，特别是在新能汽车领域，中国选择了电池技术路线，并得到了政府的大力支持。中国品牌如比亚迪等在全球市场逐渐占据一席之地，产品质量和价格逐渐提升，出口市场也从低端向高端转变。

10:03

🔌 中国新能源汽车产业的政策支持与市场发展

中国新能源汽车产业的发展得益于政府的强力政策支持，包括补贴、税收优惠、低息贷款和土地政策等。这些政策帮助企业降低成本，加速进入市场。早期，中国新能源汽车存在安全和质量问题，但政府采购等措施帮助企业度过难关。到2018年，中国新能源汽车产业进入高速发展期，产量和出口量呈现指数级增长。中国的新能源汽车在全球市场的份额达到67%，显示出中国在全球电动汽车产业中的重要地位。

15:03

🚢 中国电动汽车出口市场的挑战与机遇

中国电动汽车的出口市场正在经历重大变化，平均出口价格显著提升，产品分级明显，不再仅依赖低价竞争。欧盟成为中国电动汽车的最大出口市场，得益于较低的关税和中国品牌的竞争力。然而，欧盟对中国电动汽车发起反倾销调查，意图限制中国品牌的快速发展，保护本土汽车产业。同时，中国品牌需要面对的挑战包括运输成本的上升和国际市场的贸易壁垒。

20:08

🌟 中国汽车产业的全球竞争力与未来展望

中国汽车产业，特别是新能源汽车领域，已经成为全球不可忽视的力量。中国品牌如比亚迪、蔚来、小鹏和小米汽车等，正在与国际品牌竞争。中国拥有巨大的市场和完整的产业链，这为电动汽车产业的发展提供了坚实的基础。中国政府的工业政策和市场导向也促进了产业的快速发展。尽管存在争议，但中国汽车产业的成就不容忽视，未来有望在全球市场中发挥更大作用。

25:11

🛠️ 中国新能源汽车产业的政策优势与产业转型

中国新能源汽车产业的成功得益于政府的政策优势和产业转型。中国政府采取了国家资本主义模式，通过补贴、土地政策和税收优惠等措施，加速了产业的发展。同时，引入特斯拉等国际品牌，促进了本土产业链的发展。中国在电动汽车领域的“弯道超车”得益于电动汽车相对于燃油车的简化生产和降低的技术壁垒。中国政府的决策速度和执行力在经济发展中发挥了重要作用。

30:11

🌍 个人对中国新能源汽车产业的期待与评价

作者对中国新能源汽车产业持积极态度，希望中国企业能够继续发展，为国内外消费者提供优质的电动汽车。作者认为，中国汽车产业的发展可能会重演智能手机行业的故事，通过竞争改变行业规则，让更多人享受到智能出行的便利。同时，作者对那些能够以高性价比产品推动行业发展的企业家表示敬佩。

Keywords

💡小米汽车

小米汽车指的是小米公司生产的电动汽车，这在视频中作为一个重要话题被广泛讨论。小米汽车因其续航能力强、价格合理以及快速充电等特点受到了人们的关注。在视频中提到，小米汽车的入门级车型续航能力达到700公里，充电5分钟可行驶210公里，展示了小米汽车在性能与成本控制方面的优势。

💡电动汽车续航焦虑

电动汽车续航焦虑是指电动汽车用户因担心电量不足而产生的焦虑感。视频中通过比较小米汽车与特斯拉的续航能力来强调小米汽车在缓解续航焦虑方面的优势，指出小米汽车的续航能力远超同类产品，从而减少了用户对电量不足的担忧。

💡成本控制

成本控制是指企业在生产和经营过程中通过各种手段降低成本的策略。视频中提到小米公司在进入手机市场时通过成本控制改变了市场规则，同样的策略也被应用于小米汽车的生产中，通过高性价比赢得市场。

💡快速充电

快速充电是电动汽车领域的一项关键技术，指在很短的时间内为电动汽车充入大量电量。视频中提及小米汽车充电5分钟可行驶210公里，15分钟可达510公里，展现了小米汽车在充电技术上的优势。

💡市场反应

市场反应指的是产品推向市场后，消费者和市场对该产品的接受度和反馈。视频中提到小米汽车上市24小时内售出89,000辆，展示了市场对小米汽车的积极反应和高度评价。

💡产业政策

产业政策是政府为了促进特定产业的发展而采取的一系列措施和政策。视频中分析了中国电动汽车产业的快速发展，归功于中国政府对新能源汽车行业的强力支持，包括补贴、税收优惠、低息贷款等政策。

💡全球电动汽车市场

全球电动汽车市场指的是全世界范围内电动汽车的生产、销售和使用情况。视频中提到，中国的电动汽车出口占全球市场的大部分，展示了中国在全球电动汽车市场中的领导地位。

💡技术交流

技术交流是指国家或公司之间分享和交换技术知识和经验的过程。视频提到，中国通过与外国汽车制造商的技术交流，提高了本国汽车产业的技术水平，尤其是在新能源汽车领域。

💡反补贴调查

反补贴调查是指政府对外国政府提供给本国出口商补贴行为进行的调查，以确定是否需要采取相应的贸易救济措施。视频中提到，欧盟对中国电动汽车进行反补贴调查，这体现了中国电动汽车在国际市场上的竞争力，同时也反映出国际贸易中的挑战。

💡产业链培养

产业链培养是指通过政策支持和市场机制，逐步建立和完善产业链各环节的发展。视频中提到，通过引进特斯拉等国际企业，中国不仅提高了电动汽车产业的技术水平，也促进了整个电动汽车产业链的成熟和发展。

Highlights

小米SU7产品实力强劲，若与特斯拉Model 3同价，许多消费者会选择小米SU7。

小米汽车定价为219,000元，体现了高性价比。

小米汽车发布会于3月28日举行，雷军详细介绍了小米汽车的各项特性。

雷军为小米汽车发布会做了精心准备，亲自驾驶小米汽车从北京到上海进行宣传。

小米汽车入门级型号续航里程达到700公里，Max型号达到800公里。

小米汽车充电速度极快，5分钟充电可行驶210公里，15分钟可行驶510公里。

小米汽车上市后市场反响良好，24小时内销售量达到89,000辆。

小米以成本控制著称，进入手机市场后改变了行业规则。

小米汽车的推出在社交媒体上引发热议，有人批评其外观抄袭保时捷，缺乏创新。

中国电动车行业被认为在全球范围内实现了弯道超车。

中国政府对新能源汽车行业的强力支持政策，包括补贴、税收优惠和低息贷款等。

中国新能源汽车出口量迅速增长，2023年出口量达到120万辆。

中国新能源汽车在全球市场的份额达到67%，在欧洲市场尤为受欢迎。

欧盟对中国新能源汽车发起反补贴调查，担心中国品牌影响欧洲汽车行业。

中国新能源汽车行业的发展得益于国内市场的庞大需求和政府的有力支持。

中国新能源汽车产业的发展有望重构全球汽车行业的游戏规则。

中国企业家的创新能力和勤奋精神推动了中国成为世界工厂。

中国政府的决策能力和对新能源汽车产业的洞察力在全球范围内领先。

Transcripts

I think the product strength of the Xiaomi SU7 is strong enough.

If it's priced the same as the Model 3,

I believe many people would choose the Xiaomi SU7. Do you all agree?

Okay, so how much do we finally price it at? 215,900.

What you're seeing now is the Xiaomi Auto press conference on March 28th.

Lei Jun, the chairman of Xiaomi Auto,

is currently introducing the various features of Xiaomi's car.

Lei Jun has made meticulous preparations for this press conference.

It's said that he drove the Xiaomi car from Beijing to Shanghai beforehand,

doing all kinds of promotions along the way.

Honestly, after watching this press conference, I was quite shocked.

Because the entry-level price of this Xiaomi car is just over 210,000 yuan,

but its range, even for the entry-level model, reaches 700 kilometers.

The Max model reaches 800 kilometers.

I was quite surprised when I saw this number.

Our battery increased by 13.6 degrees, and the range by 133 kilometers.

Our top model is a four-wheel drive, with a very, very outstanding performance.

As you know, the better the performance, the more electricity it consumes.

Even so, we've still achieved a range of 810 kilometers.

Because half a year ago, I bought a Tesla.

My Tesla only has a range of 500 kilometers.

Everyone knows, for electric cars, the biggest concern is range anxiety.

If the range is short, after driving for a while, you'll always be thinking about charging.

And if you can't charge it, it ends up being a big hassle to get help.

The difference between 500 kilometers and 700 kilometers is huge.

700 kilometers means within a radius of 300 kilometers,

you can make a round trip without needing to charge.

And you know, the Tesla I bought

was not the entry-level Tesla.

It was the Tesla Model Y.

So, my Model Y is not even as good as the entry-level Xiaomi car, right?

This really made me feel

that at least in terms of range, Xiaomi cars are far ahead.

Indeed, as Lei Jun said, another thing is the charging speed.

Lei Jun said charging for 5 minutes can reach 210 kilometers,

15 minutes of charging can reach 510 kilometers.

This speed is indeed fast, even faster than Tesla's Supercharger stations.

So you can see, Xiaomi cars are not only about human-car interaction,

and the kind of sensing inside the car being more human-friendly,

but also key in actual performance.

It is indeed not falling behind some of the leaders in the electric vehicle industry today.

So you can see,

once Xiaomi cars hit the market, the market gave a very good evaluation.

Within 24 hours, 89,000 cars were sold.

Of course, we can't use this speed

to evaluate future sales.

But after all, selling nearly 90,000 cars within 24 hours

is a very impressive figure.

Some new energy vehicles don't even sell that many in a year,

while they got so many orders in just 24 hours.

Xiaomi, as a company, has always been known for cost control.

When it entered the mobile phone market, as everyone knows, it overturned

the rules of the game in China's mobile phone market,

and even the global mobile phone market.

Because in the past, everyone thought that mobile phones were quite expensive consumer goods.

But after Xiaomi entered, it turned mobile phones into something as cheap as cabbages.

Basically, mobile phones became very, very affordable,

leading to intense competition in the mobile phone industry, with very little profit.

But it also led to the rapid spread

of smart mode mobile phones.

Will this, in the future, be mirrored in the electric vehicle industry?

Right now, no one knows, but we still look forward to Xiaomi cars entering

and gradually changing the game rules in the electric vehicle industry.

First of all, we can't deny that the SU7, to some extent, pays homage to Porsche.

But with these configurations, plus Xiaomi's ecosystem,

and then looking at the selling price, it's too attractive.

If this price, around thirty to forty thousand US dollars, is put on the US market, it would really cause chaos.

Not to mention other American cars, even Tesla might not be able to compete.

The current state of Xiaomi fans.

It was really my first smartphone, and then I had no money.

I bought the Redmi when I was in college.

It was very cheap, less than 1,000 yuan.

More than ten years have passed, and then they started making cars.

Then why do you use an iPhone?

If we could buy the car here in the US,

I would definitely, definitely buy Xiaomi. I'm sure I would buy Xiaomi.

Why am I talking about this topic today? Because after Xiaomi cars were launched,

I saw on Chinese Twitter and some Chinese self-media on YouTube,

it's all criticism, thinking that Xiaomi cars

copied Porsche in appearance and lacked originality,

and that the other performances are all about stacking hardware.

Then, this so-called whole vehicle design capability is still very backward.

Basically, I think these overseas Chinese self-media

always have a very low opinion of China's electric vehicle industry.

For example, how the Chinese electric vehicle industry has developed over the years.

Domestically, it's basically considered to have overtaken in the curves.

But these people abroad think that overtaking in the curves is just self-congratulation,

all relying on labor, low costs, and crude methods.

They truly cannot compete with the automotive industry of developed countries, right?

So, I just want to talk about

my views on this issue today. I think there are two questions to answer here.

The first question is whether China's electric vehicle industry is considered to have overtaken in the curves.

The second question, if it is considered as such, how was it achieved?

So first, to answer the first question,

I personally think that China's electric vehicle industry has definitely overtaken in the curves.

We can briefly review the development of China's automotive industry.

I remember in China back then,

Long Yongtu, during negotiations for China to join the WTO,

the automotive industry was actually one of the industries

with a lot of contention during the negotiation process, because China's automotive industry at the time

was really too backward. How backward?

Compared to the world's mainstream automotive powerhouses, it might have been two or three generations behind.

I still remember the Chinese automotive industry at that time

couldn't even produce a qualified car door.

When the car door was closed, it couldn't achieve a tight fit.

Imagine how low the entire car manufacturing level was.

So, when Long Yongtu and others were negotiating with the WTO,

they repeatedly requested special protection for China's automotive industry, why?

Because at the time, many experts were worried that if the automotive industry was opened up,

the entire Chinese automotive industry, these car factories would definitely face disaster.

So later, China implemented a policy

requiring these foreign automotive industries

to exchange technology for market access after entering China. What does that mean?

It means you, as a foreign investor, cannot independently set up factories in China.

You can only form joint ventures with Chinese automotive industries,

and in these joint ventures, foreign investors could only hold up to 49% of the shares, with China holding at least 51%.

Then, through the introduction of foreign cars, these advanced production lines,

to produce such cars, technology input, and then start selling in China.

Everyone knows, like FAW-Volkswagen including SAIC Volkswagen,

internationally speaking, French Citroën, Japanese Toyota, etc.,

famous automotive powerhouses from around the world, came to China

to start joint ventures with Chinese automotive enterprises to set up factories.

But actually, this measure did not work very well at the beginning,

because the technology these foreign enterprises brought to China

was rather outdated and not the most advanced.

Secondly, after entering the Chinese market in this way, it was too easy for them to make money,

especially since after the year 2000, China's overall income level rose

and private car consumption began to surge.

So these foreign-invested joint ventures in China

could make a lot of money easily.

Everyone knows FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen, these two Volkswagens,

became Volkswagen's cash cows over the past 20 years.

That is, their most profitable overseas market was China.

But then, did these enterprises really contribute back

to the production capabilities of China's own automotive manufacturing enterprises?

Actually, not much, and of course, there's another reason,

which is that the technology barrier for gasoline vehicles is quite high.

The highest barriers in automobiles mainly include the engine,

which, after decades of development by foreign automotive manufacturers,

is indeed at a high level, and there are many patent barriers.

For lagging countries to catch up or surpass is very difficult, that's the first point.

Take the transmission, for example, among others.

Because of the complexity of gasoline vehicles, a gasoline vehicle has about 30,000 parts.

These 30,000 parts are divided into six or seven major systems.

Each system has many patent barriers.

It becomes difficult for China to surpass these, right?

This is a very important reason why it's difficult for China to catch up with gasoline vehicles.

The second reason, as I just mentioned, is the easy money; there's no incentive to innovate.

Actually, this situation started to change

only when China began to have its own private automotive enterprises,

gradually leading to some changes.

Take Chery Automobile, for example, it didn't have state subsidies

nor joint ventures with foreign capital. Eventually, by fighting for the market on its own,

it even went abroad to acquire brands from other automotive powerhouses.

So actually, after joining the WTO,

China's automotive industry wasn't particularly successful.

The real change was a major shift in the entire automotive industry,

with the development of new energy vehicles.

Then, the Chinese automotive industry also saw an opportunity.

When new energy vehicles were initially developing, there were two technological paths.

One was actually the battery path.

The other was the hydrogen path.

The hydrogen path, due to Japan's early start,

led their technology to be far ahead.

But being far ahead meant applying for a series of patents,

which caused other countries wanting to enter the hydrogen vehicle industry

to face the patent barriers set by Japanese automakers.

However, the battery industry didn't have this issue.

So, actually, facing the choice between two paths,

Chinese new energy vehicles

had to decide whether to go down the hydrogen vehicle path

or the battery vehicle path.

Ultimately, China chose the battery path,

which, in the end, merged with Tesla's approach in the US,

essentially abandoning the hydrogen vehicle path far behind.

When China started to realize the

importance of the battery industry as a policy,

from 2009, China began to support its own new energy

vehicle industry with strong industrial policies.

This includes several aspects:

One is through subsidies, providing subsidies to these companies.

After the subsidies, these automotive industries could enter the electric vehicle industry earlier.

For example, BYD, China's leading electric vehicle brand,

received about 2.6 billion US dollars in subsidies from the Chinese government over the years.

The amount of these subsidies is quite substantial.

The second aspect is policy support,

such as tax incentives, low-interest loans from banks,

and offering free land to these companies

for building factories, among other methods.

All of these are forms of government support for the electric vehicle industry.

The third aspect is some special policies,

such as the government being able to make purchases.

When BYD first started manufacturing those cars,

honestly, the quality wasn't particularly reliable or up to standard.

Without government procurement and some local government policies, they wouldn't have sold.

In the early years, the streets of Shenzhen were full of BYD's electric cars,

which had a particular tendency to easily catch fire.

I once investigated an incident in Shenzhen,

where a Japanese sports car collided with a BYD taxi,

and the BYD taxi immediately caught fire upon impact.

Three people in the car died.

Imagine, without an industrial policy

requiring Shenzhen to purchase these BYD taxis,

BYD taxis wouldn't have sold at all. So, under such industrial policies,

China's electric vehicle industry slowly started to develop.

By 2018, it had indeed entered a real boom period.

After this real boom period,

Chinese electric vehicles began to have a place in the world,

with their growth rate starting to be exponential.

Not just in domestic production, but also now starting to export.

By last year, 2023, China's total vehicle exports reached 5.5 million units,

of which electric vehicles accounted for 1.2 million units.

Of course, among these 1.2 million electric vehicles, Tesla is also included.

Everyone knows Tesla has a Gigafactory in Shanghai, China.

Its exports from the Gigafactory are also considered as China's exports.

Because in vehicle exports, there's a principle of territoriality,

meaning vehicles produced in China are counted as China's exports.

If we remove Tesla, which accounts for 35% of China's total exports,

there are still 65% left, or seven to eight hundred thousand Chinese electric vehicles being exported.

Now, in the global electric vehicle industry,

China's share has reached 67%, which means what?

For every three electric vehicles produced worldwide, two are made in China.

Imagine, China now has a significant position

in the global electric vehicle industry

Many people used to think that the cars produced by China

They were all particularly cheap, weren't they?

Relied on markets in some underdeveloped countries for support, that was indeed the case in the early days.

Everyone knows that China once produced a car called Wuling Hongguang.

This Wuling Hongguang also caused a very big sensation internationally.

Japanese car manufacturers even bought the Wuling Hongguang back,

dismantled it, and said how could this be made so cheaply?

Saying that an electric car could be bought for 500,000 Japanese yen.

The Japanese found it unbelievable, unimaginable, and dismantled it for research.

They discovered that many of those middle parts were made with a universal design.

That is, a universal design can greatly reduce costs, right?

And indeed, the safety standards were somewhat lower.

But it was by such means that the Chinese electric vehicle industry gradually developed.

But in these years, the export of China's electric vehicles

has actually undergone significant changes, by the time of 2018,

the average price of each Chinese electric vehicle exported was only $5,000.

That is, basically all were of the Wuling Hongguang's level.

But now, it has already reached $22,000.

So, this $22,000 level is not low.

And it's clearly divided into high, middle, and low grades, there are low-end but also high-end ones.

Like now, BYD, these cars when sold in Europe,

their prices are already not lower than those of European car manufacturers.

That is to say, no longer winning by low price, that's the second aspect.

The third aspect is the layout of the export market.

Now, the largest market for China's electric vehicle exports, where is it?

Many people might not expect, it's the EU.

The EU is currently the largest market for China's electric vehicle exports.

In the middle, like Belgium, a country imports about 150,000 Chinese cars a year,

and the UK, about 90,000 cars a year.

Then the remaining countries like France, Germany, Italy, tens of thousands of units per year.

One very important reason why the EU has become China's largest electric vehicle export region

is that the EU imposes relatively low tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles,

only 10%, whereas the US has 27.5%. So, you can see

The European Union is quite friendly towards China's export of electric vehicles.

So, what is the bottleneck restricting China's exports of electric vehicles to the EU now?

Unexpectedly for many, it's the ships that transport these cars.

Because currently, there is a large number of Chinese electric vehicles that need to be shipped to Europe.

But there aren't enough ships to transport electric vehicles.

Now, shipyards around the world

are working overtime to produce these EV-carrying ships for China.

There are orders for 140 ships a year for these kinds of ships.

Companies like BYD have even started to order these vehicle-transporting ships.

Because for manufacturers like BYD

if they want to transport Chinese cars to Europe, the freight charges are now extremely high.

The daily rental cost for such a ship is over $100,000.

So, they have now ordered a few ships, with the cost of one ship being about 100 million USD.

But having their own ships makes it easier and, overall, the costs are still relatively low.

So, you can see

the current production and sales momentum of Chinese electric vehicles is very strong.

Everyone knows that last year, the EU started to

initiate anti-dumping investigations against Chinese electric vehicles, that is, those subsidy investigations, what does that mean?

It means China has been accused of abusing subsidy policies leading to the development of its car industry,

which, upon reaching Europe, hinders the interests of some European manufacturers.

It hampers the normal principles of market competition in Europe.

The European Commission today initiated an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicle imports.

This investigation will determine whether Chinese electric vehicles benefit from illegal subsidies

and whether such subsidies cause economic losses to EU electric vehicle manufacturers.

The European Commission will decide on remedial measures for unfair trade based on the investigation results,

whether to impose an anti-subsidy tax on electric vehicles from China in line with EU interests.

This investigation, it should be said, is quite harsh.

Because within the WTO, such subsidy investigations mainly target administrative subsidies,

that is, how much money the government gives to these enterprises.

But as everyone knows, starting from last year,

all subsidy policies for the electric vehicle industry in China have already started to phase out completely.

The government no longer subsidizes, China has phased out after subsidizing for more than a decade.

It's believed that the anti-subsidy period has already ended.

However, the EU's anti-subsidy investigation has several features.

First, it targets not only administrative subsidies

but includes subsidies from non-market factors as well.

For example, low-interest loans are counted.

For instance, if the government gives you land for free, it counts.

Tax incentives are also included.

Then Tesla can't escape either.

You know, when Tesla was building its Gigafactory in Shanghai,

the Shanghai municipal government didn't charge Tesla any money.

So, Tesla also faces this anti-subsidy policy sanction in Europe.

At the same time, his policy also has a five-year retrospective period.

That is to say, over the past five years, as long as you meet this standard, you count.

Therefore, some people believe that this measure by the EU is actually aimed at China's new energy vehicles.

Why target China's new energy vehicles?

It's because China's current new energy vehicles

have indeed become very competitive in Europe.

Currently, China's new energy vehicles account for 8% of the EU's new energy vehicle market.

If not intervened, it is estimated that by 2025, it will reach 15%.

The traditional automotive powerhouses are mostly in Europe.

Think about France's Citroën, Germany's Volkswagen, BMW.

These cars are very important to the EU.

In the entire EU system, there are 14 million jobs related to the automotive industry.

Which account for up to 6% of the total GDP.

If the automotive industry were to be disrupted by China,

it would be a very frightening thing for the EU.

So they want to use this anti-subsidy investigation

to limit the current aggressive state of China's new energy vehicles,

and then give the EU's own automotive industry a breather,

to quickly develop and at least start competing with China,

so as not to let China advance so rapidly.

In fact, from the data just mentioned, we can see

I personally think it's too early to say that

China's new energy vehicles are taking a shortcut.

Because of this, you definitely cannot be considered far ahead on a global scale.

It's not appropriate to say so, but after all, China has moved from a traditionally weak car manufacturing country

to now becoming a strong car manufacturing nation, especially in the field of new energy vehicles.

That's absolutely now considered a strong nation.

In the field of new energy vehicles, everyone knows Tesla is the strongest.

There's no doubt about that, but besides Tesla,

China's major automotive manufacturers include BYD,

and now also companies like Li Auto and XPeng,

and in the future, this includes the entry of Xiaomi's automotive division,

which might create a scenario of several strong competitors.

This situation is very much like the smartphone industry.

Everyone knows that in the smartphone industry, Apple was a superpower.

But besides Apple, apart from Samsung and Google,

it was almost entirely dominated by Chinese smartphones.

So, whether this situation will be replicated in the automotive industry in the future, I don't know,

but I think it's very likely a similar scenario will occur.

Of course, it might not be as absolute as in the smartphone industry,

but Chinese cars have become an undeniable force in the new energy vehicle arena.

I think it's fair to say, as long as you're not biased,

you would probably come to this conclusion.

Previously, foreign brands

owned the majority of market share in China.

Now, it's Chinese brands.

When you see these Chinese

equipment manufacturers and Chinese brands entering the market,

they are some very good vehicles.

If Tesla had not cut prices by 20% to 30%,

last year they might really have seen a decline in sales.

Then the next question is, why China can achieve this

Knowing that many countries are trying to develop through this industry of new energy vehicles,

hoping to catch up through this curve.

So why only China has succeeded,

I think there are several reasons for this.

Firstly, China has a super large market.

This market, with a population of 1.4 billion, within this population,

there are about 350 million people with high incomes, and this high-income group

is comparable to the markets in the EU or the USA.

Then, of course, there are also some underdeveloped groups, the low-income group of 600 million people,

each earning less than 1,000 yuan a month.

This was mentioned by Premier Li Keqiang.

But after all, it has formed such a huge market.

This huge market, among themselves, has no trade barriers.

It is a unified market, this unified market, in my view, is called the advantage of a large country.

What is meant by the advantage of a large country, is such a unified large market,

is enough to cultivate those very important industrial enterprises.

Take the automotive industry, for example,

For the automotive industry, if the domestic market is too small,

it's very difficult to develop, like Taiwan, for instance.

In Taiwan, I've seen they also co-produce a car with Japan,

but Taiwan's market is simply too small.

It's very difficult for them to develop their own independent automotive industry

because to satisfy the Taiwanese market, the sales volume is too low.

Cars are different from many other products;

you must reach a certain level of mass production before you can reduce the cost.

Then, after lowering the costs, you might be able to expand to overseas markets.

But Taiwan has only 23 million people,

so think about it, for Taiwan, developing the automotive industry is too difficult.

But Mainland China is different, with a population of 1.4 billion,

these 1.4 billion people are enough to nurture such a large market.

Think about it, when China joined the WTO, it proposed to exchange technology for market access.

Why were those automotive giants willing?

It's because such a huge market was sufficiently attractive to them.

So this market of 1.4 billion people can allow an industry's enterprises

to start from a very low level and gradually develop and nurture themselves

into growing businesses.

This is very important; everyone can look at

why the United States, in the internet industry, has produced so many super-sized enterprises.

For example, why Tesla was born in the US, why Google was born in the US,

I personally believe that, on one hand, it's related to the systemic advantages of the US,

because the US is a very free market economy country.

Then we must also ask,

why, among so many countries that practice a free market economy,

only the US gives birth to these super enterprises?

Elon Musk is South African; why couldn't he do it in South Africa

and only succeeded with Tesla in the US?

I think another reason is because the US is a large country.

The US, with its 350 million population, has a market large enough in itself,

In a large enough market, once it nurtures an enterprise,

when it goes to other countries, those countries basically stand no chance.

So, you see, Japan, including many small countries in Europe,

actually have no power to compete after these super enterprises are born in the US.

So why does the EU want to establish a unified market?

Thus, if the EU doesn't establish a unified market,

frankly, the EU would not have the capability, for example, in the airplane manufacturing industry,

to create an Airbus system to compete with Boeing.

If it weren't for Europe uniting to do this, it would be impossible.

France or Germany alone could not compete with the US.

This is what I call the advantage of a large country,

China possesses a unique advantage as a large country, that's the first point.

The second point is China's industrial policy.

I could actually call it state capitalism.

So-called state capitalism means, on one hand, after reform and opening up,

it implements a thorough capitalist system.

On the other hand, the government's power and capitalism are combined.

Think about it, the Chinese Communist Party used to claim to seek welfare for the workers,

but now, if workers in any place want to strike or protest,

the Communist Party will deal with you on behalf of the capitalists.

So, globally,

it could be said that the best place providing services for capitalists is broadly China.

Everyone can look at when Tesla was introduced,

from the announcement of the start of construction to the first car rolling off the line, it only took 7 months.

And the concessions provided by the Shanghai government to Tesla at that time,

not to mention, land was given for free, and tax benefits were very favorable.

Only a bet agreement was signed with Tesla,

stipulating how much tax you have to pay within a certain period of time, as long as you meet that,

all of these could be realized.

In contrast,

Tesla's second overseas Gigafactory was in Germany,

construction was announced in 2019, and the formal start of car production

was not until March 22, 2022,

meaning the entire construction of this Gigafactory took three years.

This is the systemic advantage of China, of course, you can put "systemic advantage" in quotes,

because when the German Gigafactory was being built,

German environmental organizations sued Tesla,

and the German courts had to review the case.

In China, as long as the Shanghai government clears the way for Tesla,

which environmental organization would dare to challenge Tesla?

So in China, as long as the government supports capitalism,

it truly is smooth sailing.

This is what many people consider to be the systemic advantage of China.

Additionally, another point is that the introduction of Tesla also had an unexpected effect,

which is that after Tesla entered China,

China also made stipulations about Tesla's localization rate.

That is, you must reach a certain localization rate within a certain period of time.

After reaching a certain level of localization, what does it mean?

It means that when Tesla produces in China,

it cultivates an electric vehicle industrial chain for China.

Everything in the car, you have to source from China,

which essentially supports the development of China's electric vehicle industrial chain.

After this industrial chain grows, it not only serves Tesla

but also provides a very good systemic basis for other electric vehicles

to start from scratch and develop.

For example, India now also wants to do electric vehicles.

Without your own industrial chain, how can you do it?

If you have to source everything from overseas, so far away and so expensive,

so actually, for a country's electric vehicle industry,

if you have a very complete industrial chain,

then it's not difficult to do electric vehicles.

But without this industrial chain, it's really harder than climbing to heaven.

But China, by introducing Tesla,

actually helped train such an electric vehicle industrial chain.

That, for the development of China's entire electric vehicle,

really is a tremendous help.

The third aspect is actually what's called the "corner overtaking"

This "corner overtaking" is the entire auto industry

shifting from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles.

As I mentioned at the beginning, because of so many patent barriers in fuel vehicles,

it was really difficult for Chinese to surpass, with a car having 30,000 parts.

But now, electric vehicles, in fact, have only about 10,000 parts,

and the production process has become much simpler.

At most, it's actually just a battery plus a motor,

the rest is human-computer interaction, such content.

So, for batteries, as China's development of the top ten power batteries in the world,

six out of the top ten are Chinese.

Among them, CATL ranks first in the world,

producing power batteries that account for one-fifth of the global supply.

The second is BYD,

then the remaining four are divided between Japan and Korea.

Think about it, with the improvement of China's own power battery level,

developing electric vehicles becomes relatively easier.

So, because the production of electric vehicles has become simpler

and the barriers have been lowered, it's possible to overtake at the corner.

If it becomes more complex, frankly, China wouldn't have this opportunity.

Of course, to seize such an opportunity, some foresight and insight are needed.

I personally think that China targeted this opportunity early on,

which has led to the current situation in China's electric vehicle development.

Finally, I would like to mention that the state capitalism in China,

you should never underestimate its energy in economic development.

When China just started reform and opening up, including the time it joined the WTO,

it actually started from low-end industries and eventually became a world factory.

Initially, it might have been the apparel industry,

followed by the toy industry, then the steel industry,

and then the technological level began to rise.

The mobile phone industry, high-speed rail industry,

these have gradually developed from industries with lower technological levels to higher ones.

So, from a certain perspective,

is this the advantage of the state capitalism in China?

This is definitely a matter of opinion.

But the phenomenon we see is that, in the process of economic development,

China has indeed shown a great resilience in development over the past few decades.

This we must admit.

Whether you like the Communist Party or not, whether you hate the CCP or not,

you have to admit the achievements it has made in the process of economic development.

If you only deny it, in reality, you are unable to face this regime.

Nor are you able to face the development of Chinese society.

I have always said that the development of Chinese society should be separated from the governance of the CCP.

First is the development of Chinese society, like the innovative capabilities of entrepreneurs,

like the hardworking work ethic of the Chinese people, their professionalism,

which have created the current status of China as a world factory.

This we must admit, and we also respect such a Chinese historical culture

that injects vitality into the process of China's market economy.

On the other hand, when the government makes the right decisions,

the creativity that is shown

is also worthy of serious analysis.

I have previously talked about Chinese-style modernization

Chinese-style modernization is the government's capability plus capitalism

So in many respects, it indeed has a faster decision-making speed

Truly, in many fields

The demonstrated ability to create wealth is also very formidable

So, how should we face such a regime, I think that's another matter

First of all, we must acknowledge this regime's capabilities in this field

Actually, the electric vehicle industry in China

In my opinion, is related to the Chinese government's capabilities in this aspect

These decision-making abilities

Regardless of whether it will truly eliminate Japan

Or say, defeat Japan, defeat Germany, defeat France

The achievements in the automotive industry so far, I think, are already quite remarkable

From my personal perspective, of course, I do not like such a regime of the CCP

Because it does not respect human rights

Even when its state capability strengthens, it bullies the weak

But, if we want to face this regime correctly

You must accurately understand this regime

What are its strengths and what are its weaknesses

What are its strong points and what are its weak points

At least in the economic field, at least in terms of industrial policy

I think it reacts faster than many countries

Just take Japan, for instance, Japan was actually focused on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

In reality, it wasted over a decade

Now when it wants to work on electric vehicles

It's several beats slower than the entire Chinese industry policy

Now China has already canceled the subsidies for electric vehicles

Japan is just starting to implement subsidies, and Japan's charging stations

Are really too few, it's truly not very convenient to drive out

But think about it, in this aspect, you are at least 10-15 years behind the Chinese government

The entire Japanese automobile industry is now reflecting on such an outcome

So, we overseas Chinese

I think should still objectively view the Chinese government's

Foresight displayed in the decision-making process of their industrial policy in the new energy vehicle field

Lastly, from my personal perspective

I hope these Chinese electric vehicle enterprises can develop even better

On one hand, allowing Chinese consumers

To spend very little money to buy a very nice electric vehicle

On the other hand

These automotive enterprises going international to compete with international automotive powerhouses in real battles

It will also change the entire industry's rules of the game

Imagine, it was precisely because of China's mobile phone industry

Through such low-price competition completely overturned the mobile phone industry's rules of the game

Making it so that many people in undeveloped countries, very poor people

Could also afford smartphones

I think, this is a huge contribution of Chinese mobile phone enterprises

So, will the automotive industry also follow this path in the future

I think it's highly likely, because now the price of power batteries

Can be reduced by 50% every 5-8 years on average

Think about it, for electric vehicles

The most important cost of electricity comes from the battery

With the continuous reduction in battery prices, electric vehicles will definitely become cheaper and cheaper

In the future, perhaps, spending thirty to fifty thousand RMB

You can really buy a nice electric vehicle

So, in this process, who can be the catfish that stirs up the automotive world

In my view, the biggest possibility is Chinese enterprises

So, I also hope these Chinese electric vehicle enterprises develop well

We, as overseas Chinese

Also hope that these enterprises can, through their development

Create better products for consumers in China, as well as for consumers in all countries around the world

Create better products

Alright, that's all I have for today, thank you everyone

The boss of a certain ecological chain in China is a very great entrepreneur

Able to achieve a cost-performance ratio to an astonishing degree

Defeated many bad enterprises in this industry

With high cost-performance good products, good money driving out bad

Benefited work, benefited society, benefited the people

Very great, my personal attitude is sincere admiration for such entrepreneurs