ARE THE TORIES FINISHED? MATT GOODWIN, JACOB REES-MOGG & NIGEL FARAGE ON THE FUTURE OF CONSERVATISM

Summary

The video script is a debate about whether the UK's Conservative Party is in terminal decline. Participants argue the party has lost the confidence of its 2019 voters due to disagreements over immigration policy and a disconnect between the party leadership and its base. There is discussion over whether the newly formed Reform Party could replace the Conservatives, but also acknowledgment that the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system makes this challenging. The debate highlights volatility in UK politics and questions whether this moment could mark historic political change.

Takeaways

• 😟 Farage believes the Conservative party is in grave danger and could be terminally declining
• 🤔 The Conservative party is deeply divided and disconnected from its voters
• 📉 Recent polls show Conservatives plummeting to just 20% support
• 👎 Farage says Boris Johnson has failed to deliver on Brexit promises like controlling immigration
• 😕 Farage feels Conservative voters have lost confidence in the party leadership
• 🤨 Farage wonders if there's any point to the Conservative party anymore
• 📈 Farage notes the Reform party is rising in polls without much effort so far
• 🤔 Historic volatility suggests voters are open to changing party support
• 😟 Immigration remains a top priority issue for Conservative voters
• 🤔 Farage implies he faces a decision on getting involved with Reform party

Q & A

What are the current poll numbers showing for the Conservative Party?

The latest poll numbers show the Conservatives down to 20% support, with the Reform Party at 12% and Labour with a massive lead.

What does Nigel Farage think is the main reason for the Conservatives' poll decline?

Farage believes the main reason is that Conservative voters have lost confidence in the party over its failure to control immigration and 'stop the boats', despite promises to do so.

How does Professor Matt Goodwin characterize the Conservative Party's current situation?

Goodwin says the Conservatives are 'on life support' and don't know how to speak to the voters they inherited from Brexit.

What challenge does Jacob Rees-Mogg say the Conservatives face regarding voters?

Rees-Mogg says the Conservatives have failed to inspire their own voters recently and need to say things that inspire them again.

What exception does Rees-Mogg point to regarding challenger parties?

Rees-Mogg cites the case of the Reform Party in Canada in the 1990s, which went from a challenger to wiping out the incumbent Conservative majority.

What could convince some Conservative MPs to defect, according to Goodwin?

Goodwin suggests Conservative MPs facing defeat may defect to Reform if they think it gives them a better chance of retaining their seats.

Why does Farage say immigration could be as divisive as Brexit was?

Farage argues immigration is now the top priority for many voters over economic issues, making it a new dividing issue.

What does Goodwin say is historically unprecedented right now?

Goodwin points out voter volatility and churn is at unprecedented highs, with 60% changing votes between elections.

What challenge does Rees-Mogg say Reform faces?

Rees-Mogg states Reform faces the challenge of first-past-the-post, which makes it hard for challengers even with close polling.

How does the panel view the Conservatives' long-term survival chances?

The panelists agree the Conservative Party is likely to survive long-term based on its historic resilience, but its current situation is dire.

Outlines

00:00

😕 Farage questions whether Conservative party is in terminal decline

Farage questions whether voters have lost confidence in the Conservatives, citing polls showing the party down to 20% support. He wonders if there's anything the party can do to regain voter trust before the next election. Farage and Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg debate whether the party is in an existential crisis or can renew itself as it has historically.

05:02

😟 Conservatives have disconnected from their voters

Rees-Mogg admits there is a disconnect between Conservative voters and party leaders that must be fixed. Pollster Matt Goodwin agrees, saying after the next defeat the party won't renew around its new Brexit-era electorate but retreat to its liberal comfort zone. The party doesn't know how to speak to the working class voters it gained under Boris Johnson and Brexit.

10:03

😕 Reform UK could overtake Conservatives under first-past-the-post

The panel discusses how Nigel Farage's Reform UK party could threaten the Conservatives' dominance. Under first-past-the-post they may seem like a wasted vote, but if Reform polls above the Tories nationally, Conservative MPs in red wall seats may defect for a better chance of retaining their seats. The situation echoes the rise of the Reform party in 1990s Canada.

Keywords

💡conservative party

The Conservative Party is one of the two major political parties in the UK. In the video, there is a debate around whether the party is in 'terminal decline' and could disappear due to losing confidence from its traditional voter base. Examples are given such as the party trailing in polls behind the Reform Party.

💡immigration

Immigration is presented as a key issue that Conservative voters care deeply about, but the party is seen as failing to deliver on promises to reduce immigration. This is given as a major reason for the loss of trust and support from voters.

💡brexit

Brexit was a key issue in the 2019 election where the Conservatives under Boris Johnson won a large majority, promising to 'get Brexit done'. However, the Conservatives are now being accused of not delivering on the wider expectations around issues like immigration that Brexit voters expected.

💡reform party

The Reform Party is a new political party on the right that is gaining support, polling at 12% compared to only 20% for the Conservatives. Reform is positioned as a challenger to the Conservatives and a threat to take their voters.

💡voters

There is much discussion around different groups of voters - Conservative voters, Brexit voters, 2019 Conservative voters. The core theme is that these groups have lost trust and enthusiasm for the Conservatives due to perceiving a failure to deliver on priorities.

💡polls

Polls and polling numbers showing Conservative support down to 20% and Reform rising to 12% are cited throughout as evidence of the decline of the Conservative party and threat from Reform.

💡election

There is speculation around what will happen at the next general election given current polling. Scenarios include a disastrous defeat for the Conservatives leading to a rebuild or more defections to Reform.

💡first-past-the-post

The UK's first-past-the-post electoral system is discussed as a barrier for new/smaller parties like Reform to win seats, even with a decent share of the votes.

💡sdp

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) split from Labour in the 1980s but despite polling well, only won a small number of seats due to first-past-the-post. This is used as a cautionary example for Reform.

💡canada

An example is given of the Reform Party in Canada completely replacing and defeating the governing Conservative party to illustrate that first-past-the-post systems can still enable dramatic change.

Highlights

The Conservative party is on life support and could face catastrophic defeat

The Conservative party has lost the confidence of its 2019 voters

The Conservative party is disconnected from its voters and the elected

The Conservative party doesn't know how to speak to the voters it inherited from Brexit

After a catastrophic defeat, the Conservative party may pivot away from working class voters

The Conservative party is failing to inspire its traditional voters

Immigration could be the issue that destroys the Conservatives like Brexit did

Voter volatility in the UK has never been higher - voters readily change parties

Reform UK faces significant hurdles under the UK's first-past-the-post system

There is historical precedent of challenger parties abruptly surging to power in other countries

Many Conservative MPs may defect to Reform UK since they expect to lose their seats anyway

Reform UK picking up disaffected Conservative voters could lead to dramatic electoral changes

The Conservative party has rebounded from past challenges, but the immigration issue may be different

Reform UK faces the challenge of convincing voters they are not a wasted vote

Nigel Farage and Reform UK have an important decision to make regarding Conservative defections

Transcripts

well I'm really sorry but do you believe

he's going to stop the boats because I

don't does he believe he's going to stop

the boats no I don't think he does and

it just the idea that the conservative

party is United on this or any other

issue is for the birds now look we used

to political leaders of of whether it be

a governing party or an opposition party

putting the best spin they can on things

but I just begin to get the feeling that

no longer do we believe a single word

this man is saying and this is very much

backed up by ugv poll that was out in

the times today and it makes pretty Grim

reading for the conservatives it shows

them now down to

20% in the opinion polls with reform who

frankly have not had a great deal of

publicity no major celebs joining them

or anything like that creeping up on 12%

and labor with a massive massive lead

now political parties have good times

and bad times and back in 2019 the

conservative party had a very very tough

time which I had quite a bit to do with

but they got out of that mess by Theresa

May resigning Boris Johnson coming in

and then saying right we finally get it

we understand you we are going to

deliver brexit we are going to take back

control and many millions of brexit

Voters thought that also meant taking

back control of our borders reducing the

numbers of people coming in to our

country they had a stoning majority of

80 seats what have they done for the

last four years well they spent most of

it arguing among themselves Naval gazing

arguments within the conservative party

without much thought as to what the rest

of the country really needs and I never

thought I'd really ask this question but

I'm going to debate tonight is the

conservative party in terminal decline I

want your thoughts on this please farage

GB news.com or tweet #f faraj on GB News

why do I say that I feel that the loss

of confidence in the conservative party

from 2019 conservative voters is now at

catastrophic levels I'm not even sure

there's anything they can do between now

and the next election to get that

support back and whilst the first pass

the post system is what's kept in place

to Party politics remember before the

first world war the liberal party with

the governing party they were ultimately

I accept it took a great War it took the

emancipation of women but they were

replaced by the labor party I wonder

whether there is any point to the

conservative party and I say that

because they're always argu arue amongst

divisions that we're a broad

church but even a broad church needs a

religion of some kind to believe in I'm

not sure they've actually got this

anymore I think they're not fit for

purpose I think they're on the way out

Jacob ree Mar conservative Member of

Parliament for Northeast

Somerset probably the nearest thing to a

party loyalist one could ever meet um a

True Believer in the conservative party

Jacob since about

1834 I think it's roughly the date when

the modern conservative party has been

recognizable as it is has it ever been

in Graver danger than it is now oh yes

indeed um from 1846 to

1874 the conservatives don't form a

majority government they split over the

Corn Laws um the peer lights go off

really with gladston to the liberal

party and Israeli reforms the

conservative party as a patriotic party

that represents everybody in the country

exactly actually what Boris was doing in

2019 which was interrupted and the key

for the conservative party is that we

get back to representing the people who

voted for us in 2019 and at the moment

though Donald Trump they think of the

handsome Mr farage I any you've seen

this poll but 54% of them trust you as

opposed to 35% who trust the Prime

Minister and what we've done wrong is

move away from our call supporters and

we've been set off course over the boats

issue by some people who hold the EU

effectively and they're calling it the

ECR at the moment in higher regard than

their own voters and that's been why

rishy couldn't go further on the boats I

supported all the Amendments but there

just wasn't a majority in Parliament for

it and I think there's a much bigger

political problem it's not the or is

it's there is this disconnect between

voters and those who are in charge

between the electors and the elected

that's absolutely true that's absolutely

and we can fix that cuz we've done it

before if you take the whole history of

the Tory party you go back to the

beginning of the 18th century we have

had long periods when we haven't made

that connection and we haven't succeeded

but we've always managed to come back to

get close to voters that's what it's all

about however 20% is a very low number

Professor Matt Goodwin and for the

purpos of this debate importantly

pollster yeah these numbers are dire

aren't they they're very dire I mean the

conservative party is on life support

and you think about why the conservative

party historically has been one of the

most successful parties in the history

of democracy it's because of its power

to renew it's renewed its ideology it's

renewed its electorate but after 2019

you know after renewing itself around

the brexit Divide I think what strikes

me is that the conservative party

doesn't really know how to speak to the

voters it inherited from brexit and so

if you look at what's going to happen to

the party at the next election Nigel

with these poll numbers

the MPS who are left they're not red

wall MPS they're not Northern MPS

they're Oxbridge educated Southern

conservative MPS of a more liberal uh

mindset so the idea that after this

catastrophic defeat which the polls

suggest is on on on Route I don't really

think the conservative party is going to

Pivot back and say well let's rebuild

this electorate I think they're going to

go into their comfort zone and the

problem is that comfort zone is

University towns big cities social

liberals and they're not going to vote

conservative for a very long time what

of the differences Jacob if you go back

into history you're quite right I mean

you know Peele did the right thing in

1846 the right thing for the country but

the wrong thing for the party at that

moment in time and for the next 22 years

um whatever it was but there was no

political party to challenge directly

the conservatives you know you had the

wigs the

Liberals but you now and we've seen this

over the years with ukip and the brexit

party now you've got reform now there is

a challenger well you know perfectly

well because you've made this point the

brexit party had the great advantage in

the European elections uh of um

proportional representation you also had

brilliant candidates including one anun

ree small I think inspired the nation um

and that meant that people could vote

for the brexit party knowing that it

would lead directly to Ms the issue now

is that yes reforms on 12% but it won't

win a single seat and it may well help

out some quite proper conservatives

people you would find a lot in common

you me quite proper conservatives who've

overseen massive tax Rises a huge

increase of the size of the State open

borders legal immigration at levels we'

never SE I me quite proper conservatives

who like me voted for the Amendments

last week to you didn't vote against It

ultimately Jacob did you no because the

bill was better than what we've

currently got and um is there any point

oh yes I mean I'm not confident it's

going to lead plan leaving quickly if we

had time it could but this argument

Jacob this argument you know you you

might vote out some good chaps that

exist within the conservative party I

don't know what percentage of the

Parliamentary party would be with a

center of public opinion on immigration

maybe 20% of you no more than that but

the point is this if the public think at

the next election that labor is going to

win

anyway the idea that well don't vote for

them because they're not going to win

many seats that Fades away I don't think

it does because you have the question of

do you really want labor to have a

majority of 150 and do you want them to

have a complete free-for-all well they

might have it anyway as Blair had and I

do think you make one one important

point you imply something very important

that when discussing this one has to be

very careful not to imply we are

entitled to any

voters you have reform is not taking our

voters We are failing to inspire our

voters and even more than than the

people going to reform are the people

who are intending to stay at home there

a bigger number of people and in my view

on it's easier to bring back if only we

would say things that Inspire them which

are the sort of things ja well we right

Jacob May well we right but there's no

leadership in the current Tory party

going to bring those people back is that

M rishy sunak ratings are at a new low

uh there is no enthusiasm for the rishy

sunak project as we can see in the polls

here's one interesting um scenario to to

to put out there which which I think

differs from say the ukip and the brexit

party experiment what if at the spring

reform is polling above the conservative

party that could be interesting because

going back to the 50s there's a very

famous French academic Mars duv and he

said the problem with first pass post

systems for Challenger parties like

reform is that many voters look at them

and say they're a wasted vote but if

they look at the national polls and they

see reform polling potentially above the

conservative party that changes the

dynamic and this of course is what the

sdp never quite managed to do it's what

ukip never quite managed to do which is

present itself as a credible alternative

and if that happens everything's off the

table the sdp did though in 1981 the sdp

were polling over 50% and in the 1983

election what they win 1% 2% yeah they

got

25.3% 23 seats and labor got 27 and a

bit percent and 29 that's right and that

is the that is the fundamental issue

with first pass the post and it makes it

difficult for Challenger party is even

if they're getting close one excep to

that there's one exception to that and

that's Canada 30 years ago yes where an

incumbent conservative party with a

majority and doing about as badly in the

polls as the British conservative party

is now faced a party oddly called

reform and they literally disappeared

down the two seat so it can happen oh

extraordinary results can happen and

first P the post tends to exaggerate him

one way the it can invert can't that's

right that's right there's a Tipping

Point I also wonder if I'm a 2019

conservative MP I'm thinking I'm going

to lose my

seat why wouldn't I defect why wouldn't

I leave why wouldn't I go out with a

bang and think you know what actually

chances are I might have a better chance

in this seat in this red wo seat under a

reform Banner than under a conservative

banner and I think that's another

variable a kind of Known Unknown in this

election that may yet see a number of

MPS say I'm going to to you know roll

the dice here I'm going to try something

different because I'm leaving politics

anyway history suggests history suggests

that Jacob's arguments are right sure

but is there a chance that this could be

a real moment of of historic change the

the the chance is one issue which is

immigration uh throughout the 20th

century the conservatives throughout the

19th century the conservatives endured

but we are now in a world where identity

and cultural issues matter just as much

to voters in fact more to voters than

economic issues if you ask Boris

Johnson's voters today what is your top

priority they say stopping the boats

they don't say cost of living crisis

they say stopping the boats so

immigration could be the new brexit it

could be the issue that cuts across left

and right and if reform are picking up

now about 15% of Boris Johnson's voters

what if that starts to go up what if

it's 25% 35% and they start to eat into

some of the workingclass voters and the

apathetic voters who are saying I'm not

going to vote at all then things start

to change dramatically and one thing I

would say look at the British election

study the premier study in of the

country's politics that shows over the

last decade 60% of Voters have changed

their minds from one election to the ne

the next we've never seen this before so

volatility the churn in the system has

never been as high as it is that is a

very fair point that's an extremely

important point you just have to look at

Labor in Scotland and labor in the red

wall to see how willing people are to

change their minds I me lab in Scotland

is quite extraordinary in something none

none of us ever thought we'd see happen

reform has a challenge and Nigel you are

part of this challenge I that that um if

you think the sdp with uh Roy Jenkins

and Shirley Williams and so on and and

David Owen particularly really big

figures could not get through that

hurdle I just think there any way reform

without you can do it and you have an

important decision to make well it's

very good of you Jacob to put it back on

me right at the end of this debate thank

you very much indeed gentlemen and folks

historically of course the conservative

party will survive all of this I just

don't know something just perhaps feels

a little bit different