Fruit & Veg prices in South Africa

Summary

This week's market overview by AMT and John Deere highlights fruit industry trends, predicting price increases for avocados, apples, and pears towards year-end. It also notes a slight drop in potato prices and discusses economic factors affecting currency and oil prices. The report covers vegetable market dynamics, with tomatoes seeing a price surge and onions continuing to decline. Fruit prices are analyzed, with bananas, apples, and pears expected to fluctuate, and avocado prices are projected to rise in the coming months. FieldNET Pivot Watch is promoted for its farm monitoring capabilities.

Takeaways

• 🍏 The focus of the market overview is on the fruit industry, particularly the potential increase in Avo, Apple, and Pear prices towards the year's end.
• 📉 Potato prices have decreased slightly, with an average national price drop of 3% to R77.92 per 10kg, and volumes were 12% lower week on week.
• 🍅 Tomato prices increased by 16% to R9.37 per kilogram, with volumes decreasing by 34%, indicating a supply-demand imbalance.
• 🥕 Carrot prices are on the rise, with the average price at R4.25 per kilogram, and volumes are expected to increase in the coming months, potentially affecting prices.
• 🧅 Onion prices continue to decrease, with the average price at R60.75 per 10kg, and a prediction of further decrease towards the end of the year.
• 🌶 Pepper prices show variability, with green and yellow peppers decreasing while red peppers increase, suggesting market-specific dynamics.
• 💰 The South African Rand has strengthened against the US dollar, currently at R18.20, influenced by global economic concerns and geopolitical tensions.
• 📈 Brent crude oil prices have risen to $80.30 per barrel due to concerns over Middle East supply stability and anticipated US interest rate changes.
• 📊 Market volumes traded decreased last week, but this was attributed to a shorter week and not indicative of actual demand and supply conditions.
• 🍌 Banana prices have decreased, and despite higher volumes in June and July, they are not expected to reach the lows of September 2022.
• 🍏 Apple prices are stable, trading at R9.86, with a potential increase to R13 in November if following last year's trend.
• 🍐 Pear prices are higher than the previous four years, with expectations of a significant increase from October to December due to lower volumes.

Q & A

What is the focus of the AMT / John Deere Fresh Produce Market overview for this week?

The focus of the market overview is on the fruit industry, specifically discussing the potential increase in Avocado, Apple, and Pear prices as the year ends.

How has the South African Rand performed recently against the US dollar?

The Rand has strengthened to R18.20 per US dollar due to investor concerns over potential recessions in China and the US, as well as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

What is the current expectation regarding the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut?

International investors have abandoned the idea of an emergency rate cut in the US but remain optimistic about a 50 basis point reduction in September.

What is the expected action by South African economists regarding interest rates in the coming months?

South African economists expect a 25 basis point cut in September and another 25 basis points in November, influenced by positive economic outlooks, political stability, and the absence of load shedding.

Why has the Brent crude oil price increased to $80.30 per barrel?

The increase is due to concerns about the stability of supply from the Middle East because of escalating conflict, and higher demand is anticipated when the US lowers interest rates.

How did the average national potato price and volume change last week?

The average national potato price decreased by 3% to R77.92 per 10kg, with volumes 12% lower week on week.

What is the current expectation for potato prices in the coming weeks?

Expectations are for potato prices to remain mostly sideways this week due to lower middle month demand, with a potential drop in volumes expected at the end of August or the start of September.

How did tomato prices and volumes perform in the past week?

Tomato prices increased by 16% to R9.37 per kilogram, while volumes decreased by 34%.

What is the outlook for carrot prices for the remainder of this month?

Carrot prices are expected to be higher for the remainder of the month, likely moving closer to R5, with volumes expected to pick up in September and October.

What trend is observed in onion prices, and what is the expected future movement?

Onion prices are in a downward trend, decreasing by 3% to R60.75 per 10kg. It is expected that prices will move below the R50 mark next month and remain at a lower level until December.

How did pepper prices change, and what is the expected market pressure in the next two weeks?

The average pepper price decreased slightly to R21.45 per kilogram. With lower middle month demand and higher volumes, the market is expected to face pressure, potentially leading to a decrease in prices over the next two weeks.

What is the current situation with banana prices and expected changes for September and October?

Banana prices decreased to R7.26 per kilogram, with volumes decreasing by 16% week on week. Prices are expected to remain close to current levels for September but may jump to around R10 in October due to lower expected volumes.

What are the latest apple and pear prices, and what trends are expected for the coming months?

The latest apple price is R9.86, and the pear price is R10.68. Apple prices are expected to possibly move closer to R13 in November, while pear prices are likely to remain sideways in September before increasing significantly from October to December due to lower volumes.

How did avocado prices and volumes change last week, and what is the expected trend for the next few months?

Avocado prices increased to R15.10 per kilogram, with volumes 23% lower week on week. Prices are expected to start increasing from September onwards, likely moving closer to R25 in November.

Outlines

00:00

🍏 Fruit and Vegetable Market Overview

This week's market overview, sponsored by John Deere and Fieldnet Pivot Watch, shifts focus to the fruit industry, discussing factors that could lead to an increase in Avocado, Apple, and Pear prices towards the year's end. It also covers the latest vegetable prices, with a notable decrease in potato prices. The Rand's value has strengthened due to fears of a recession in China and the US, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices have risen due to supply concerns and increased demand. Market volumes decreased last week, but this was attributed to a shorter week and not a reflection of actual demand and supply. Potato prices saw a 3% drop, with expectations for prices to remain stable this week due to lower demand. Tomato and carrot prices increased, while onion prices continued to decrease, with predictions for further decline in onion prices next month.

05:05

📈 Market Trends and FieldNET Pivot Watch Promotion

The second paragraph delves into the market trends of various vegetables and fruits, including onions, peppers, cabbage, garlic, spinach, sweet potatoes, pumpkins, bananas, apples, pears, oranges, avocados, table grapes, pineapples, lemons, and blueberries. It predicts potential price movements for these commodities, with some expected to decrease due to lower demand and higher volumes, while others may increase as the year progresses. The paragraph also promotes FieldNET Pivot Watch as a cost-effective and time-saving solution for farm irrigation monitoring. It concludes with a call to action for viewers to visit the website for more detailed reports and to contact a dealer for a quote on the FieldNET Pivot Watch. The video is presented by Dr. Johnny van der Merwe, who thanks the viewers for watching.

Keywords

💡Avo

Avo, short for avocado, is a fruit that is a staple in many diets and cuisines. In the context of the video, 'Avo' refers to avocados as a commodity in the fruit market, with its price being a key point of discussion. The script mentions that Avo prices can increase as the year ends, indicating its relevance to the market trends being discussed.

💡Apple

Apples are a common fruit that are also a significant part of the fresh produce market. The video script discusses apple prices, suggesting that they may remain close to the previous year's levels and could increase towards November, showcasing the seasonal price fluctuations in the fruit industry.

💡Pear

Pears, like apples and avocados, are a type of fruit whose market prices are tracked in the video. The script highlights that pear prices are higher than in the previous four years and predicts an increase from October to December due to lower volumes, illustrating the impact of supply and demand on pricing.

💡Potato Prices

Potato prices are a key indicator in the vegetable market segment discussed in the video. The script notes a decrease in potato prices and provides specific price points for different sizes, such as large, medium, and small, reflecting the granularity of market analysis.

💡Tomato Price

Tomato prices are another vegetable market indicator mentioned in the video. The increase in tomato prices by 16%, along with a decrease in volumes, is used to illustrate market dynamics and the impact of supply shortages on pricing.

💡Carrot Price

The carrot price is used in the script to discuss the impact of trading week length on market prices. The average carrot price is noted to have increased, with the script predicting higher prices for the rest of the month, tying it to the overarching theme of market trends.

💡Onion Price

Onion prices are highlighted in the script to demonstrate a downward trend in the market. The decrease in average onion price is tied to a potential seasonal pattern observed in the previous year, indicating a recurring market behavior.

💡Pepper Price

Pepper prices in the script are used to illustrate market fluctuations, with a slight decrease noted. The script also predicts further price decreases due to higher volumes and lower demand, showing how market forces can influence pricing.

💡FieldNET Pivot Watch

FieldNET Pivot Watch is a product mentioned in the video that offers monitoring solutions for irrigation systems in farming. It is highlighted for its cost-effectiveness and time-saving benefits, tying it to the video's focus on agricultural technology and its impact on market efficiency.

💡Brent Crude Oil Price

The Brent crude oil price is discussed in the context of geopolitical conflicts and their impact on the market. The script notes an increase in oil prices due to concerns about supply stability, linking it to the broader economic factors affecting commodity markets.

💡Exchange Rate

The exchange rate, specifically the South African Rand to US dollar rate, is mentioned to illustrate how global economic factors can influence local markets. The strengthening of the Rand is tied to investor behavior and expectations about economic policies, showing the interconnectedness of financial markets.

Highlights

Focus on the fruit industry and the reasons for potential increases in Avo, Apple, and Pear prices towards year-end.

Potato prices decrease slightly, with an average national price drop of 3% to R77.92 per 10kg.

The Rand strengthens to R18.20 per US dollar due to investor fears of a China-US recession and Middle East geopolitical conflict.

Expectations for a 50 basis point reduction in US interest rates in September.

South African economists anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in September and another in November.

Brent crude oil price rises to $80.30 per barrel due to Middle East supply concerns and anticipated US interest rate cuts.

China's money printing could support medium-term oil demand.

Market volumes decreased last week, but this was attributed to a shorter week and not a reflection of demand and supply.

Tomato prices increased by 16% to R9.37 per kilogram, with volumes decreasing by 34%.

Carrot prices increased to R4.25 per kilogram, with volumes decreasing due to a shorter trading week.

Onion prices continue to decrease, with an average price drop of 3% to R60.75 per 10kg.

Pepper prices show a slight decrease, with yellow peppers dropping by 33% and red peppers increasing by 15%.

Cabbage prices increased, while garlic prices decreased, and spinach prices increased.

Sweet potato prices increased, and the average pumpkin price rose.

Banana prices decreased, with volumes down by 16% week on week.

Apple prices remain close to last year's levels, with potential for an increase to R13 in November.

Pear prices are higher than the previous four years, with expectations of a significant increase from October to December.

Orange prices increased slightly, while avocado prices rose to R15.10 per kilogram.

Table grape prices decreased, while pineapple prices increased and lemon prices decreased.

Transcripts

In this weeks AMT / John Deere Fresh Produce Market overview, made possible by

John Deere and Fieldnet Pivot Watch, we shift our focus to the fruit industry and

discuss why Avo, Apple and Pear prices can increase as we move closer to the end of

the year. We also track the latest vegetable prices with potato prices

decreasing a bit. All in this week's episode, so make sure to stay tuned.

The Rand is currently at R18.20 per US dollar. The Rand has strengthened over the past few

days due to investors fearing that China and the US might enter a recession, as well

as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. International investors have given up

on the idea of an emergency rate cut in the US but are still very optimistic about a 50

basis point reduction in September. Local economists expect South Africa to follow

with a 25 basis point cut in September and another 25 basis points in November, based

on positive economic outlooks, political stability, and no loadshedding at the

moment. The Brent crude oil price has risen further to $80.30 per barrel due to

increasing concerns about the stability of supply from the Middle East due to

escalating conflict, while higher demand for is expected when the US lowers interest

rates. China is also printing more money at the moment, which could also support demand

for oil over the medium term. Almost all volumes traded on the markets decreased

last week but was due to the shorter week and was not a real reflection on demand and

supply. The past week the average national potato price decreased by 3% to R77.92 per

10kg with volumes 12% lower week on week. The large potato price traded lower on R85,

mediums on R76 and smalls still on R60 per 10kg. Mondials traded lower on R78, Sifras

lower on R79 and Lanormas on R73 with the average price on Joburg on R77.20 per 10kg

last week. The average price is only about 2% higher at the moment compared to

last year, but the price for August thus far is already higher when compared to the

previous 4 years. As mentioned last week, we only expect the drop in volumes to come

into the market at the end of August or the start of September. But the expectation for

this week is for prices to remain mostly sideways due to lower middle month demand.

The tomato price increased by 16% the past week to R9.37 per kilogram with volumes

decreasing by 34%. Large tomatoes traded on R9.65, Mediums on R9.67 while smalls

increased to R8.35. Volumes on the markets are about 28% lower compared to a year ago

resulting in 34% higher prices. We realised higher prices in August 2022 when the

average volumes to the markets were abnormally low. I however believe we have

more volumes this year which could keep prices lower over the next two months. The

average carrot price increased to R4.25 per kilogram while volumes decreased due to the

shorter trading week last week. Large carrots traded on R4.24, mediums higher on

R3.85 and smalls lower on R2.64. Last year in August we saw the average carrot price

increase to around R5 per kilogram with volumes decreasing. We therefore can see

higher carrot prices for the remainder of this month with prices likely to move

closer to R5. However, expect volumes to pick up in September and October which will

most likely keep this market under pressure then. The average onion price remained in

its downward trend, decreasing by 3% to R60.75 per 10kg with brown onion prices on

R59, red onions decreased to R143 while white onion prices stayed on R60 per 10kg.

The average large onion price traded on R58, mediums on R67 and smalls lower on R46

per 10kg. I still think we can follow a similar trend as last year when onion

prices came from higher levels in May and June and then continued to decrease towards

the end of the year. I therefore think we can move below the R50 mark next month and

then stay on a lower level until December. The average pepper price decreased slightly

to R21.45 per kilogram while green pepper prices decreased to R17.50, yellow peppers

decreased by 33% to R17.69 while Red peppers traded another 15% higher on R38.80

per kilogram. It looks like the price can decrease over the next two weeks with lower

middle month demand and higher volumes putting pressure on this market. Join the

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now! Looking at other market prices, Cabbage prices increased to R3.76, Garlic

prices decreased to R99 per kilogram while Spinach prices increased to R5.24. Sweet

potatoes increased to R8.39 per kilogram while the average pumpkin price increased

to R3.21 last week. Over in the fruit markets, the banana price decreased to

R7.26 per kilogram or R131 per 18kg box with volumes decreasing by 16% week on

week. During 2022 we saw abnormally high volumes coming to the markets and the price

decreasing to around R5 during September. Although we realised high volumes during

June and July, we are not quite on the levels of 2022 and the price remaining

close to the levels that we saw in 2020 and 2021. I therefore think that we can remain

close to current price levels for September as well, but that the price can jump in

October to around the R10 mark due to lower expected volumes. The latest apple price

traded on R9.86 last week and is remaining close to last year's price levels. If we

remain on last year’s price trend, we can possibly move closer to R13 in November.

The latest pear price traded on R10.68 per kilogram and is still higher than the

previous 4 years. The price will likely remain sideways in September, but then

increase significantly from October until December due to lower volumes. The Orange

price increased slightly to R5.49 the past week with volumes decreasing by 39% week on

week. The Avo price increased to R15.10 per kilogram last week with volumes 23%

lower week on week. Fuertes traded higher on R20.68, Hass lower on R10.99 while

Pinkertons increased to R15.02. We can start to see higher prices from September

onwards with prices that will likely move closer to R25 in November. The average

table grape price decreased to R123, pineapple prices traded higher on R9.05,

lemons decreased to R4.30 while the average Blueberry price traded lower on R77.86 per

kilogram. “This video is made possible by John Deere and Fieldnet Pivot. Visit our

website at amtrends.co.za for more detailed reports, prices, and videos.

I’m Dr. Johnny van der Merwe, thank you for watching!”