Menanti RAPBN 2025 di Nota Keuangan
Summary
TLDRThe transcript details President Joko Widodo's final financial speech to the Indonesian Parliament, outlining the 2025 APBN budget framework designed for the next president, Prabowo Subianto. It projects economic growth of 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation between 1.5% to 3.5%, and a rupiah exchange rate of Rp5,300 to Rp15,900 per US dollar. The budget includes expansive fiscal policies to accelerate inclusive and sustainable economic growth, with a deficit of 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP and public debt ratio of 37.82% to 38.71%. Critics argue that the government could reduce fuel subsidies to fund priority development programs. The potential for a budget revision by Prabowo after his inauguration is also discussed.
Takeaways
- 📅 The financial note on August 16, 2024, will be President Joko Widodo's last speech to the House of Representatives (DPR) during his second term.
- 📉 The 2025 State Budget (APBN) is planned for the next president, Prabowo Subianto, to continue the nation's development.
- 💼 President Joko Widodo will present the 2025 APBN draft on August 16 at the DPR RI, outlining the main macroeconomic framework and fiscal policies.
- 📈 The macroeconomic assumptions for 2025 include an economic growth range of 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation between 1.5% and 3.5%, and the Rupiah exchange rate fluctuating between Rp5,300 and Rp15,900 per US dollar.
- 🛑 Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce poverty levels to 7-8% and unemployment rates below 5% by focusing on development indicators for 2025.
- 💼 The national treasurer states that the government will manage policies in the remaining time and oversee until the government transition.
- 🔄 There might be some discretion from the elected president, but since the current president is presenting to the current DPR, some details may not be fully determined until they occur.
- 📊 The 2025 APBN already includes several expansive fiscal policies from President Prabowo Sudianto, focusing on inclusive and sustainable economic growth, resulting in a budget deficit of 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP.
- 💔 Criticisms include the government's opportunity to reduce fuel subsidies due to the large needs for priority development programs like the Giant Seawall and free meals.
- 📈 The potential for additional debt is highlighted as the budget deficit is widened from 1.9% to 2.5% to 2.8%, which could increase future debt burdens.
- 🏗️ The development of the iBuotota project is noted as a future burden on the APBN, especially considering the lack of foreign investor participation to date, which may lead to a revision of the APBN by Prabowo to increase the non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) budget above 20%.
Q & A
What is the significance of the financial note on August 16, 2024, for President Joko Widodo?
-The financial note on August 16, 2024, is significant as it will be President Joko Widodo's last speech at the DPR during his second term, outlining the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policies for the 2025 state budget.
Who is the 2025 state budget designed for, and what is its purpose?
-The 2025 state budget is designed for the next president, Prabowo Subianto, to facilitate the continuation of national development.
What are the projected macroeconomic indicators for 2025 according to the financial note?
-The projected macroeconomic indicators for 2025 include an economic growth rate of 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation ranging from 1.5% to 3.5%, the value of the Rupiah against the US dollar ranging from Rp5,300 to Rp15,900, and crude oil prices ranging from $75 to $5 per barrel.
What are Prabowo Subianto's targets for poverty and unemployment rates in 2025?
-Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce the poverty rate to between 7% and 8%, and to bring down the unemployment rate to below 5%.
What is the fiscal deficit ratio projected for the 2025 state budget?
-The fiscal deficit ratio for the 2025 state budget is projected to be between 2.29% and 2.82% of the GDP.
What is the potential impact of the fiscal policies on the national debt ratio?
-The national debt ratio is expected to be between 37.82% and 38.71% of the GDP, indicating an increase in potential national debt.
What are the criticisms regarding the government's budget for the 2025 state budget?
-Critics argue that the government has the opportunity to reduce the fuel subsidy budget, considering the significant needs for priority development programs such as the Giant Seawall and free nutrition meals.
What is the potential for a budget revision after President Prabowo's inauguration?
-After President Prabowo's inauguration, there is a high likelihood of a budget revision for the 2025 state budget to accommodate his programs.
What is the concern regarding the additional debt that could be incurred by the next administration?
-There is a concern that the additional debt could increase the national debt burden in the future, especially if it reaches the current level of 16 trillion by the end of President Prabowo's term.
What is the issue with the development of the capital city in Nusantara, and how might it affect the state budget?
-The development of the capital city in Nusantara is a concern due to the lack of foreign investor participation, which could lead to a need for a budget revision to increase the non-tax state revenue (IKN) allocation above 20% to continue the commitment to the project.
What is the potential for discretionary actions by the incoming government regarding the 2025 state budget?
-The incoming government, under President Prabowo, will have significant discretion to navigate and explain the 2025 state budget, which may lead to policy changes and adjustments in the remaining time of the current administration.
Outlines
📊 Final Presidential Budget Speech and Economic Outlook
The script details the final budget speech by President Joko Widodo to the House of Representatives (DPR) on August 16, 2024, marking the end of his second term. The 2025 State Budget (APBN) is designed for the incoming president, Prabowo Subianto, to continue the nation's development. The financial note includes the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policies, with projected economic growth between 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation ranging from 1.5% to 3.5%, and the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US dollar fluctuating between Rp13,500 to Rp15,900. Crude oil prices are expected to range between $75 to $85 per barrel. Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce poverty and unemployment rates significantly and improve the country's development indicators. The national treasurer also mentions the discretionary power of the elected government in the remaining time and the potential for policy changes by the incoming administration. The current cabinet and DPR are tasked with discussing the 2025 APBN, which includes expansive fiscal policies to accelerate inclusive and sustainable economic growth, resulting in a budget deficit of 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP and public debt ratios of 37.82% to 38.71% of GDP.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Presiden
💡DPR
💡APBN
💡Kerangka Ekonomi Makro
💡Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
💡Inflasi
💡Nilai Tukar Rupiah
💡Harga Minyak Mentah
💡Defisit Anggaran
💡Rasio Utang
💡Pembangunan
💡Kemiskinan
💡Pengangguran
💡RUU APBN
💡Diskresi
💡Konsekuensi Defisit
💡Pembangunan Ibu Kota Nusantara
💡Investor Asing
💡Revisi Anggaran
Highlights
President Joko Widodo's final speech to the DPR during his second term.
The 2025 APBN (State Budget) is designed for the next president, Prabowo Subianto.
Economic macro-framework and fiscal policies for the first year of Prabowo's presidency are outlined.
Economic growth projection for 2025 is between 5.1% to 5.5%.
Inflation rate is expected to range from 1.5% to 3.5%.
Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate is projected to be between Rp 5,300 to Rp 15,900 per US dollar.
Crude oil price is estimated to range between $75 to $85 per barrel in 2025.
Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce poverty levels to 7-8% or less.
Unemployment rate target is set to be below 5%.
Fiscal deficit ratio is planned to be between 0.380.
The government will finalize the 2025 APBN law within the remaining 1.5 months of the current administration.
There may be discretionary actions by the president-elect affecting the APBN 2025.
The current cabinet and DPR will continue to communicate and navigate the 2025 APBN.
The 2025 APBN includes expansive fiscal policies for inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
Deficit budget consequences are projected to be between 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP.
Debt ratio is expected to be between 37.82% to 38.71% of GDP.
Criticism of the government's opportunity to reduce fuel subsidies due to development priorities.
The possibility of Prabowo issuing a budget revision after his inauguration.
Deficit budget expansion from 1.9% to 2.5% to 2.8%, indicating potential additional debt.
Concerns about the potential increase in national debt under Prabowo's administration.
The development of the iBuot Nusantara project as a burden for the APBN without foreign investor participation.
Prabowo may revise the APBN to increase the non-tax state revenue budget above 20%.
Transcripts
nota keuangan 16 Agustus 2024 akan
menjadi pidato terakhir bagi Presiden
Joko Widodo di DPR pada periode kedua
masa kepemimpinannya anggaran pendapatan
dan belanja negara APBN 2025 telah
dirancang untuk presiden berikutnya
praboo Subianto guna menjalani
pembangunan negeri ini Lantas apa saja
kerangka ekonomi makro dan kebijakan
fiskal yang akan ditempuh bagi tahun
pertama prabuhu
Gibran Presiden Joko Widodo akan
menyampaikan rancangan undang-undang
APBN 2025 pada 16 Agustus di DPR RI nota
keuangan akan memuat kerangka ekonomi
makro pokok-pokok kebijakan fiskal
termutakhir pada asumsi makro 2025
pertumbuhan ekonomi direntang 5,1%
sampai
5,5%. inflasi direntang 1,5 sampai
3,5%. nilai tukar Rupiah direntang
r5.300 sampai
rp15.900 per dolar Amerika
dan harga minyak mentah direntang 75
S5 per barel pada indikator pembangunan
2025 Prabowo Subianto akan menurunkan
tingkat kemiskinan 7 s8% maupun 0% pada
kemiskinan ekst tingkat pengangguran
juga disasar di bawah 5% dan rasio
ketimangan direntang
0,380 untuk menyelesaikan RUU APBN 2025
bendahara negara juga menyatakan ada
kondisi di mana pemerintahan presiden
terpilih yang mengambil kebijakan di
sisa waktu 1 Seteng bulan dan akan
mengawal sampai pemerintahan berganti
mungkin namanya juga transisi pasti akan
ada beberapa yang memang merupakan
diskresi dari presiden terpilih Namun
karena yang membacakan dan menyampaikan
ke DPR adalah presiden saat ini pasti
akan ada hal yang mungkin tidak 100%
harus
ditetapkan pada saat terjadinya
undang-undang nanti kita akan coba untuk
terus berkomunikasi dan karena ini yang
membahas adalah kabinet saat ini dengan
DPR saat ini padahal ini adalah nanti
yang menjalankan adalah kabinet yang
akan datang dan DPR akan datang pasti
nanti juga akan ada semacam situasi
yaitu memang pemerintah yang akan datang
diberikan diskresi yang tentu akan lebih
banyak In charge untuk Bagaimana
menjelaskan
dan juga untuk menavigasi APBN 2025 R
APBN 2025 sudah memuat sejumlah
kebijakan fiskal yang ekspansif dari
Presiden Prabowo Sudianto sesuai tema
akselerasi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang
inklusif dan berkelanjutan membuat
konsekuensi defisit anggaran di
2,29% sampai 2,82% terhadap PDB rasio
utang
37,82 sampai 38,71%
dari PDB ekonom selios nailul Huda
mengkritisi pemerintah memiliki peluang
untuk menurunkan jumlah anggaran subsidi
BBM mengingat besarnya kebutuhan untuk
program pembangunan prioritas seperti
Giant seawall dan makan bergizi gratis
sehingga setelah Presiden Prabowo
dilantik akan sangat mungkin
mengeluarkan revisi anggaran maupun APBN
perubahan
2025 artinya ketika dia dipatasin 2,8%
itu sudah cukup sudahudah mentok untuk
prabowa bisa menjalankan
program-programnya nah kemudian kalau
kita lihat dari sisi memang defisit
anggarannya diperlebar dari
1,9% jadi 2,5% sampai
2,8% artinya ada potensi tambahan utang
yang bisa ditarik oleh pemerintahan
selanjutnya nah tambahan utang ini ini
eh selama ini memang tidak tidak ini ya
memang belum mencapai ambang batas tapi
ini bisa jadi menambah beban hutang ke
tempannya Nah kalau kita lihat Pak
Jokowi itu sudah menambah hutang sekitar
hampir 6.000 triliun dalam masa
kepemannya nah tambahan hutang di Pak
Prabowo ke depan ya bisa-bisa itu
mencapai kalau sekarang triliun se
mencapai posisi 16 triliun di akhir masa
kepemimpinan Pak Prabowo dan itu itu
sudah sangat
mengkhawatirkan hal lain yang juga perlu
dierti adalah pembangunan ibuota
nusantara yang akan menjadi beban bagi
APBN mengingat belum adanya partisipasi
investor asing sampai saat ini sehingga
memungkinkan adanya revisi undang-undang
IKN oleh Prabowo untuk menambah anggaran
IKN dari APBN di atas 20% demi
meneruskan komitmennya Des ritonang
Fajar Bolivia Jakarta
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