Menanti RAPBN 2025 di Nota Keuangan

Summary

The transcript details President Joko Widodo's final financial speech to the Indonesian Parliament, outlining the 2025 APBN budget framework designed for the next president, Prabowo Subianto. It projects economic growth of 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation between 1.5% to 3.5%, and a rupiah exchange rate of Rp5,300 to Rp15,900 per US dollar. The budget includes expansive fiscal policies to accelerate inclusive and sustainable economic growth, with a deficit of 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP and public debt ratio of 37.82% to 38.71%. Critics argue that the government could reduce fuel subsidies to fund priority development programs. The potential for a budget revision by Prabowo after his inauguration is also discussed.

Takeaways

• 📅 The financial note on August 16, 2024, will be President Joko Widodo's last speech to the House of Representatives (DPR) during his second term.
• 📉 The 2025 State Budget (APBN) is planned for the next president, Prabowo Subianto, to continue the nation's development.
• 💼 President Joko Widodo will present the 2025 APBN draft on August 16 at the DPR RI, outlining the main macroeconomic framework and fiscal policies.
• 📈 The macroeconomic assumptions for 2025 include an economic growth range of 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation between 1.5% and 3.5%, and the Rupiah exchange rate fluctuating between Rp5,300 and Rp15,900 per US dollar.
• 🛑 Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce poverty levels to 7-8% and unemployment rates below 5% by focusing on development indicators for 2025.
• 💼 The national treasurer states that the government will manage policies in the remaining time and oversee until the government transition.
• 🔄 There might be some discretion from the elected president, but since the current president is presenting to the current DPR, some details may not be fully determined until they occur.
• 📊 The 2025 APBN already includes several expansive fiscal policies from President Prabowo Sudianto, focusing on inclusive and sustainable economic growth, resulting in a budget deficit of 2.29% to 2.82% of GDP.
• 💔 Criticisms include the government's opportunity to reduce fuel subsidies due to the large needs for priority development programs like the Giant Seawall and free meals.
• 📈 The potential for additional debt is highlighted as the budget deficit is widened from 1.9% to 2.5% to 2.8%, which could increase future debt burdens.
• 🏗️ The development of the iBuotota project is noted as a future burden on the APBN, especially considering the lack of foreign investor participation to date, which may lead to a revision of the APBN by Prabowo to increase the non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) budget above 20%.

Q & A

What is the significance of the financial note on August 16, 2024, for President Joko Widodo?

The financial note on August 16, 2024, is significant as it will be President Joko Widodo's last speech at the DPR during his second term, outlining the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policies for the 2025 state budget.

Who is the 2025 state budget designed for, and what is its purpose?

The 2025 state budget is designed for the next president, Prabowo Subianto, to facilitate the continuation of national development.

What are the projected macroeconomic indicators for 2025 according to the financial note?

The projected macroeconomic indicators for 2025 include an economic growth rate of 5.1% to 5.5%, inflation ranging from 1.5% to 3.5%, the value of the Rupiah against the US dollar ranging from Rp5,300 to Rp15,900, and crude oil prices ranging from $75 to $5 per barrel.

What are Prabowo Subianto's targets for poverty and unemployment rates in 2025?

Prabowo Subianto aims to reduce the poverty rate to between 7% and 8%, and to bring down the unemployment rate to below 5%.

What is the fiscal deficit ratio projected for the 2025 state budget?

The fiscal deficit ratio for the 2025 state budget is projected to be between 2.29% and 2.82% of the GDP.

What is the potential impact of the fiscal policies on the national debt ratio?

The national debt ratio is expected to be between 37.82% and 38.71% of the GDP, indicating an increase in potential national debt.

What are the criticisms regarding the government's budget for the 2025 state budget?

Critics argue that the government has the opportunity to reduce the fuel subsidy budget, considering the significant needs for priority development programs such as the Giant Seawall and free nutrition meals.

What is the potential for a budget revision after President Prabowo's inauguration?

After President Prabowo's inauguration, there is a high likelihood of a budget revision for the 2025 state budget to accommodate his programs.

What is the concern regarding the additional debt that could be incurred by the next administration?

There is a concern that the additional debt could increase the national debt burden in the future, especially if it reaches the current level of 16 trillion by the end of President Prabowo's term.

What is the issue with the development of the capital city in Nusantara, and how might it affect the state budget?

The development of the capital city in Nusantara is a concern due to the lack of foreign investor participation, which could lead to a need for a budget revision to increase the non-tax state revenue (IKN) allocation above 20% to continue the commitment to the project.

What is the potential for discretionary actions by the incoming government regarding the 2025 state budget?

The incoming government, under President Prabowo, will have significant discretion to navigate and explain the 2025 state budget, which may lead to policy changes and adjustments in the remaining time of the current administration.