NVDA Stock - NVIDIA Must Hold Here

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the host dives into Nvidia's stock performance, highlighting recent fluctuations, key technical indicators, and potential market movements. The analysis points to Nvidia holding support at $174, but warns of possible downside risks if this level is breached. The video also discusses the importance of resistance levels and the potential for a short-term bounce. With Jackson Hole looming and earnings approaching, the host emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding Nvidia's future and urges caution, while also tracking the latest options flow for insight into upcoming price action.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia's stock closed down about 0.25% at $175 per share, with a key level at $174 being critical for potential short-term reversal.
• 📊 The daily chart shows some positive signs, such as holding above the $174 support level, but momentum is still weak, as indicated by the MACD.
• 🔴 The MACD is showing clear lower lows, signaling that overall momentum has likely declined despite short-term bullish movements.
• 💡 Historically, Jackson Hole events have led to flat or negative stock movements 5 days after the speech, with Nvidia's reaction likely to follow this pattern.
• 🚨 The speaker remains cautious about Nvidia's near-term prospects, noting potential further downside if support at $174 is lost, possibly leading to a drop toward $150 per share.
• 💰 The speaker's preferred entry point is around the $150 mark, where they would consider buying Nvidia, driven by Fibonacci retracement levels.
• 📉 On the hourly chart, a bounce back towards resistance zones like $177 and $180 per share is seen as possible, but it would be viewed as a dead cat bounce unless stronger support is built.
• 🔑 For bulls to turn the current trend around, reclaiming $180 and turning it into support is essential to reduce the chances of a bearish continuation.
• 📈 A break above $183 would signal that the bulls are gaining control and could potentially trigger a short squeeze and a stronger rally toward higher levels.
• 💥 Earnings are just around the corner (next Wednesday), and the speaker acknowledges that predicting the stock's movement based on earnings is speculative and uncertain, highlighting the unpredictable nature of earnings reports.

Q & A

What is the current status of Nvidia stock based on the daily chart?

Nvidia's stock is currently holding support at the $174 level, which is crucial for any potential short-term reversal. However, the stock's momentum is weak, as indicated by the daily MACD pointing downward, suggesting that despite the support, the overall trend may still be bearish.

What does the speaker predict for Nvidia stock if it fails to hold above $174?

If Nvidia fails to hold above $174 and starts closing daily candles below that level, the speaker expects the stock to likely experience a further decline, possibly even more significant downside movement.

What are the key resistance levels for Nvidia stock in the short term?

The key resistance levels for Nvidia in the short term are around $177 and $180 per share. If the stock manages to break above these levels, especially $180, it could indicate a potential reversal or more upside momentum.

How does the speaker view the recent bounce in Nvidia stock?

The speaker views the recent bounce as a potential 'dead cat bounce,' which is typically a short-term rally in a downtrend. The bounce may seem significant, but it could ultimately lead to further downside if the stock fails to break key resistance levels.

What is the significance of the Fibonacci levels mentioned in the analysis?

The Fibonacci retracement levels are being used to identify potential support and resistance zones. The speaker specifically points out the 382 Fibonacci level at $150 per share as a target where they would be excited to buy Nvidia, should the price fall to that point.

How does the speaker view Nvidia's overall chart damage and momentum?

Despite holding above $174, the speaker believes there is still 'damage to the chart,' as momentum is weak and the MACD is making lower lows. This suggests that the overall trend is still bearish and could lead to further declines.

What role does the Jackson Hole event play in Nvidia's stock movement?

The Jackson Hole event, where Jerome Powell (Fed Chairman) is speaking, could impact Nvidia's stock, as it may influence broader market sentiment. Historically, the stock has shown little movement or a slight downward trend after such events, with the speaker predicting a potential flat or slightly red reaction in the days following the speech.

What is the speaker's outlook for Nvidia stock leading up to earnings?

The speaker expresses uncertainty about Nvidia's upcoming earnings, emphasizing that earnings results are a 'massive question mark.' While the speaker does not predict the direction of the earnings move, they suggest the stock could see significant movement based on broader market conditions.

What factors would indicate a bullish reversal for Nvidia stock?

For a bullish reversal, the speaker believes Nvidia would need to break above the $180 level and hold it as support. Additionally, a break above the $183 level would further confirm that the bulls are in control, reducing the likelihood of a 'dead cat bounce' scenario.

How does the speaker assess Nvidia's call options activity?

The speaker notes a moderate increase in call option activity for Nvidia, particularly in the last hour of trading. This suggests that some traders are expecting a short-term move higher, with key strike prices around $175 and $177.5. The speaker believes this aligns with the possibility of the stock moving back to the $179 to $180 range.