Bitcoin: Don't Ignore This Rejection
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses Bitcoin's recent price action, highlighting its rejection at the $72,000 level and the implications for short-term trading. The presenter suggests a likely sideways and downward trend, with potential support around $68,500. They also mention a free beginner's trading program and a 14-day free trial of Meta Signals. The long-term outlook remains bullish, with the presenter anticipating a significant opportunity post-pullback, possibly around $64,000 to $65,000. The video also touches on the Dollar Index's impact on Bitcoin and the presenter's skepticism about its correlation with risk-on markets.
Takeaways
- 📉 Bitcoin is currently facing a short-term rejection at a critical moment, which may lead to sideways and downward trading in the near future.
- 📚 The speaker is offering a free beginner's program to teach price action and strategy creation in a beginner-friendly format, with sign-up available in the description.
- 🎥 Weekly live streams will accompany the beginner's program, providing additional learning opportunities.
- 📊 Bitcoin's closing below the 382 level at 7,800 for CME suggests a bearish short-term outlook, with a potential bounce but unlikely breakout.
- 📈 Despite short-term bearish signals, the speaker remains excited about upcoming announcements and believes in long-term opportunities for Bitcoin.
- 🗓 The speaker anticipates a likely sideways and downward movement over the weekend, with a possible bounce attempt on Monday but a more significant breakdown by Tuesday.
- 📉 The speaker suggests that the next support level for Bitcoin could be around $65,000 before any significant recovery attempt.
- 📊 On the daily time frame for CME, Bitcoin has failed to maintain a pivot, indicating a likely short-term correction.
- 📊 The speaker notes that Bitcoin's trading patterns on weekends, particularly Saturdays and Sundays, are typically the least volatile.
- 📈 A long-term bullish view is maintained, with any pullback seen as a potential buying opportunity, especially if Bitcoin remains above recent lows.
- 📊 The speaker discusses the HPD indicator's signal on the 5-day time frame for CME, suggesting positive momentum and potential for significant rallies if the market remains in a bullish cycle.
Q & A
What is the main topic discussed in the video script?
-The main topic discussed in the video script is the short-term and long-term implications of Bitcoin's price action, particularly after it was rejected at a critical level, and what this could mean for the upcoming week.
What is the free program being offered by the speaker?
-The speaker is offering a free beginner's program that covers their view on price action and how to create and execute trading strategies. It is beginner-friendly and includes live streams.
What does the speaker believe is the likely short-term direction for Bitcoin after the rejection at 72,000?
-The speaker believes that Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways and down in the short term after the rejection at 72,000, with a potential bounce attempt but not expecting a breakout from the current region.
What is the significance of the weekly median rejection on the CME chart?
-The rejection of the weekly median on the CME chart signifies that the short-term bullish hopes are diminished, and it suggests a higher likelihood of sideways to down movement in the price of Bitcoin.
What is the potential support level for Bitcoin that the speaker mentions?
-The speaker mentions that the downside for Bitcoin is likely to be limited around the previous day's wick low, which is approximately $68,500 on the spot price action.
What does the speaker suggest about the volatility on weekends for Bitcoin?
-The speaker suggests that weekends, particularly Saturdays and Sundays, are typically the least volatile days for Bitcoin, with half or less of the high-low range compared to other weekdays.
What is the speaker's view on the long-term opportunity for Bitcoin?
-The speaker believes that any pullback from the current move in Bitcoin is likely to be a major long-term opportunity, assuming that Bitcoin is still in a bull cycle.
What indicator did the speaker mention observing on the 5-day time frame for CME?
-The speaker mentioned observing a signal on the HPD indicator, which crossed the zero read, indicating positive momentum on the 5-day time frame for CME.
What is the speaker's opinion on the correlation between the Dollar Index and other risk-on markets?
-The speaker does not like the full-on correlation between the Dollar Index and other risk-on markets, considering it a bad assumption, but acknowledges its importance for the current market move.
What is the speaker's expectation for the range of Bitcoin's price action over the weekend?
-The speaker expects the range of Bitcoin's price action over the weekend to be between $70,000 and $68,500, with a possible bounce attempt.
What would make the speaker reconsider their bearish view on Bitcoin's short-term price action?
-The speaker would reconsider their bearish view if Bitcoin were to reclaim and close above Friday's high or at least close above $71,500, indicating a rejection of the current bearish trend.
Outlines
📉 Bitcoin's Short-Term Rejection and Its Impact
The speaker discusses Bitcoin's recent rejection at a critical price point and its implications for short-term price action. They mention a free beginner's program for trading strategies and signal services, and predict a sideways to downward trend for Bitcoin over the weekend, with potential bounces but no major breakouts. The speaker also suggests that the rejection could lead to a long-term buying opportunity, possibly around the $65,000 mark, and notes the significance of the weekly CME rejection on the short-term outlook.
📊 Analyzing Bitcoin's Market Cycles and Statistical Trends
This paragraph delves into the statistical analysis of Bitcoin's market cycles, focusing on average returns and potential trading ranges. The speaker anticipates a likely sideways movement over the weekend and a possible bounce attempt on Monday, which historically has been a positive day for Bitcoin. They also reference the 5-day CME time frame, highlighting a positive momentum signal that could indicate a significant rally if the market remains in a long-term uptrend. The speaker expresses caution regarding the correlation between the dollar index and risk-on markets, suggesting that it might not be a reliable indicator.
🚀 Preparing for Potential Opportunities Amidst Market Volatility
The speaker wraps up the discussion by outlining the potential for a bounce and subsequent downside movement in the coming week or two. They provide criteria for changing their bearish outlook, such as a close above Friday's high or a significant price recovery. The speaker also promotes a free beginner's trading program, emphasizing its professional production and suitability for new traders, while noting its limited value for advanced traders already familiar with their strategies.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Price Action
💡Short-term
💡Long-term
💡Rejection
💡Pivot
💡Volatility
💡Median
💡Bounce
💡Range
💡Beginner Trading Program
💡Meta Signals
💡Dixie
💡Economic Data
💡Market Cycle
Highlights
Bitcoin is experiencing a short-term rejection which could impact price action in the upcoming week.
A free beginner's program on price action trading strategy will be offered in 2 and 1/2 weeks.
Meta Signals is available free for 14 days.
Bitcoin closed below the 382 level at 7,800 for CME, indicating a likely sideways and down trade.
A short-term bounce is anticipated, but a major breakout is unlikely.
The rejection on the weekly median suggests potential sideways and down movement.
Daily time frame shows Bitcoin found the median, suggesting a likely bounce attempt.
Volatility is expected to increase, indicating a potential price range of 65,000 to 64,000 before stabilization.
Despite short-term corrections, the long-term outlook remains bullish.
A 5-day time frame for CME showed a positive momentum signal, which historically has led to rallies.
The current market cycle is not yet complete, suggesting further long-term opportunities.
The 50% level of the range is just below 65,000, indicating a potential support level.
Saturday and Sunday are typically the least volatile days for Bitcoin trading.
Monday is the most likely day to close positively, with potential for a bounce.
Tuesday is the least likely day to close positively, often seeing negative returns.
The Dollar Index is showing signs of a higher low, which could impact Bitcoin's trajectory.
For a change in the current outlook, Bitcoin would need to reclaim above Friday's high or close above 71,500.
A comprehensive beginner trading program will be released, featuring professional production and clear explanations.
Transcripts
Bitcoin getting rejected at perhaps the
worst moment for the short term and what
does that mean for Price action to come
in the next week as well as does this
change does this rejection change the
long-term look that we've been espousing
on this channel that is the topic of
today as we get into this very nice very
boring very uneventful very nonvolatile
Saturday at least that's what typically
does happen I want to welcome you back
to the a crown crypto Channel I want to
once again speak about the free program
the free beginners program that I'm
going to be offering up starting in
about 2 and 1/2 weeks now there's a sign
up link in the description below it's
100% free it basically goes over in a
very beginner friendly format my sort of
view on price action and how to uh
ultimately create your own strategy
create your own setups and then execute
those of course as well so if you're
interested in such things again it's
freely available to you down there we'll
also be doing some uh some live streams
some weekly live streams for that and
other than that we can just jump right
into this one um should also let you
know you can get meta signals free for
14 days everything's free baby
everything's free and we'll probably
have some more or we will have some more
announcements on Monday which I'm
actually uh very excited about anyways
um first and foremost Bitcoin as we went
over in yesterday's video did indeed
close below the 382 level at 7,800 for
CME thus indicating that Bitcoin once
again reject at 72,000 likely to likely
to trade sideways and down we're very
unlikely to see a breakout from this
region right here Friday needed to close
above that number in order to keep the
short-term bula's hopes alive don't
confuse us however with a likely
short-term bounce in coming you know
probably where Bitcoin is at right now
now if we go over here to spot price
action you can see bitcoin's actually
just uh actually beautifully found the
median on The Daily time frame so likely
a bounce um attempt you know bounce
attempts can come back up and maybe even
test around 70,000 bucks even at the
same at the same time I do suspect that
we probably will see another downside
attempt But ultimately we're not going
to see any sort of major breaks today
Saturday and probably Sunday as well the
downside likely going to be limited
somewhere down around yesterday's Wick
low which is about 68,500 on a spot
price action but going back on over here
to CME I do believe that this last
rejection does hold significant weight
actually in terms of where the long-term
or not the longterm actually sorry
completely wrong term right there uh in
in terms of where the short term is as
of right now why is that because we have
seen well yet another rejection oops
over here on the weekly of the median so
after rejection like that one two three
times very likely going to play out some
sideways and down again that comes in
combination with the daily time frame
over here getting rejected from the
potential breakout levels and uh and
likely indicating that we are going to
see some more volatility crunch some
more volatility crunch which within the
context of of this price action would
imply that um you know Bitcoin comes
back down fills out the you know the
middle of this range so uh in this case
looking somewhere likely around 65,000
bucks before it's all said and done
maybe even 64 somewhere around there but
I do suspect that this is ultimately
going to lead towards a long-term
opportunity now we'll get into that
topic in a second here but I also did
want to go over just just very quickly
the daily time frame daily for CM again
not trading over the weekend so
obviously we're going to have to wait
for these effects to you know likely
play out I would suspect um maybe Monday
Tuesday probably probably Tuesday as
we'll go over in a second but um daily
time frame getting a double dose of the
downside stoas Alla whenever I see
something like this it typically does
have some significant follow through and
uh and obviously Bitcoin did fail that
pivot yesterday on Friday's closure
below 7,400 again this CME right here
not Trading over the weekend um 5day and
weekly still overall okay which does
give some um some hopium to the higher
term time frames but very likely to see
a short-term uh correction play out from
this region now of course as long as
bitcoin's above yesterday's low you know
you can maybe play that game of hopium I
don't think that's very wise personally
in this case but I do know that there
are going to be um people out there
there's also going to be I I can I can
almost assure you that there's going to
be people saying it's a higher low and
as of right now yeah it is a high but I
just very rarely see these things play
out I'm sure people are going to draw
like this and be like it's an ascending
derp right here and I do like my
ascending derps but I don't think this
is the Derp that you're looking for to
be honest um I should also be known that
the 50% of this range comes in just
below 65,000 bucks and you know likely
the next higher low comes somewhere in
this pocket right here keep in mind that
um while we are kind of waiting for the
real trading week to start Saturday
Sunday you know technically speaking a
little bit little bit more in favor of
positive closures here um but these are
very very very very small gains uh or
losses that we have seen on average
since 2024 began and really throughout
the full history of Bitcoin um as we can
see you know Saturday for example is
literally the lowest volatile day
followed by guess what Sunday crazy um
these these typically see like half or
or or or less than half of the high low
range that the other weekdays you know
typically see as you can see in this
pane right here by the way I think we're
just about ready to listen this uh this
indicator we're actually going to come
out with a nice whole package of just
caretaker statistics which I think is uh
I think I think is what I'm most excited
for anyways um yes so for today average
returns as far as getting a range goes
which by the way Friday has worked
incredibly well yet again um we can see
that to the upside from today's open you
know an average of spot 84 so not even
1% would actually put Bitcoin about
70,000 bucks and imagine 1 and a half%
to the downside puts Bitcoin what do you
know back down around yesterday's low so
um that's likely the range for today
probably even the range for Sunday as
well Monday do we see a real bounce
attempt perhaps yes if there's going to
be any sort of in my opinion surprising
res reversal that would be the day for
it to happen again Monday has been the
most likely to close positively day um
for Bitcoin in this segment of the
market cycle and has had some pretty uh
some pretty big positive returns as well
I should say um but uh but it is
followed by of course Tuesday which is
the which is the least likely to close
positively AKA the most likely to close
negatively and also has the biggest
negative returns so you know what am I
kind of looking for
here sideways over the weekend in this
current range 70,000 to
6850 um you know Saturday Sunday
probably same thing Monday maybe a
bounce attempt if there's going to be
any sort of surprise in price action
that's where it likely come around
Tuesday likely a actual uh an actual
breakdown after a failed Monday rally
which is exactly what we've seen many
times um throughout the last few months
here since Bitcoin put in its March High
anyways um going back into the more
long-term view let me just pull it up
right here um I did want to hearken back
to something that we uh spoke about on
yesterday's video which was a 5-day time
frame for CME which closed yesterday by
the way as well and we were observing a
signal here on the HPD indicator which
had crossed or yes did certainly confirm
a cross of the zero read indicating you
know positive momentum on this time
frame is starting to be gained so um
I've marked off with the red vertical
bar all of the times that we've seen
this over the past over the past year
and a half here um and these have led on
to some pretty significant rallies the
only time where it did not get any major
continuation was actually uh right here
and now that I recognize it this is on
the wrong bar there we go that's the
right one um but uh but
ultimately pretty good you know
generally speaking and this one's wrong
as well why why am I getting this one
wrong here may maybe I made it on a
different time frame or something like
that uh or was it on the weekly oh it
was on the weekly that's why
my apologies actually did have a right
uh on first glance okay beautiful um but
of course we go back further in time we
can see that when Bitcoin was in a
downside Market in a bare Market um
these sort of signals did not really get
much play I mean they did produce some
significant bounces yes uh but they were
certainly unreliable in the way that
we've seen them in general upside
markets so the Assumption here is that
Bitcoin maintains its long-term upside
Market uh which I I do believe that the
current market cycle is not done um but
I do think that also we're very we're a
lot closer to the end of this Market
cycle than I think most people consider
um and uh in assuming that Bitcoin is
still in a bull cycle you know this
should be a pretty reliable signal for
CME which did officially print um as of
yesterday's closure so you know looking
at this right here yeah I'm inclined to
say you know long-term whatever pullback
that we get from this current move is
likely a major major opportunity so of
course that begs question how far does
it pull back you know again um I think
somewhere around the 50% anywhere
between the 50% level and the 618 it's
going to be fair game um you know
there's going to at least be an attempt
of the 382 iect in the mid
66s um you know probably for another try
for a bounce but I don't think that's
the bounce you're going to be looking
for a lot more likely we see some down
around tier and this current segment
gets drawn out further so um you know if
we're going to see a move probably later
in June rather than earlier in June uh
again I really if if we're going to see
an early move in June yesterday was
really the day for that one to um to to
make a legitimate attempt instead we got
an actual rejection so um on top of that
it should also be known that based off
yesterday's economic data which I
[ __ ] hate talking about um and I also
hate talking about this asset as well if
you can even call it that uh Dixie
seemingly digging itself in and putting
in um yet another higher low now I you
you probably haven't heard me talk too
much about Dixie in quite some time just
the dollar Index right here um that's
because I I think it's extremely
difficult to analyze um just because
it's it's it's contingent upon so many
different things that you know are
unforeseen events um but but at the end
of the day you know this that was kind
of its chance to break down too uh this
past week and instead of breaking down
it actually is digging in for a higher
low it seems like so you know have to be
uh long-term bullish on this still I
suspect especially the higher term time
frame that I go the more and more that I
think that that becomes obvious so uh so
fair enough I think we'll end things
right there you know I don't like the
the full-on correlate between Dixie and
other risk on markets I think it's a I
think it's a bad uh theosis to be having
but did did want to just mention it very
very quickly um especially for the
current move so um yeah just looking at
Bitcoin back around here again weekend
very likely range plays between 70,000
and 6850
68500 um you know maybe maybe an attempt
for a bounce maybe some hop on on Monday
but assuming that Bitcoin just doesn't
reclaim where where would Bitcoin need
to reclaim in order for me to uh
immediately let go of these the these
Blasphemous views that I've been having
and uh and be looking for some upside I
think the most obvious thing would be I
mean the most obvious thing would be
back above Friday's High um you know
thus Nega getting a rejection but uh I
or on a closing base of 71,500 if you
just want like a full-on number for it
but until that happens um bounces here
in in my opinion are very likely going
to lead towards uh another try to the
downside and that's probably going to be
the real op Unity um the real question
is how far down do things get 64 65 does
it go even lower than that maybe but uh
take it one step at a time bounce is
going to be along the way of course as
well and uh it's really just going to be
a preparation for this next week or two
to come I suspect so I'll end things
right there again you can get uh free
full access to that UPC that upcoming
beginnner trading program in the link in
the description below it's going to be
like highly professionally produced
actually by a team that uh that I'm
working with uh it's actually a banter
which they sent they actually sent out a
guy to my apartment when I was in Dubai
and we made it all together it's
actually it's actually really really
cool it all so really good for me to
like have someone like that uh By My
Side who's like running me through just
like okay uh I like what you're saying
here but this is not going to make sense
to people can you put it in different
terms sure you know there's a lot of
that um which was really really good for
me because I think at this point like
I've just been you know just been doing
this for so long like I I make
assumptions that that I think people
know something
that maybe is not as intuitive as what I
you know you know as what I consider so
that was super useful um again it's gear
Choice beginners if you're if you're a
much more advanced Trader I don't know
how much you're going to get from this
um if you're already in one of my
programs probably also not as well
although you know it's going to be
presented in a more professional man you
know in a more in a more like
Streamlight manner animations gifts all
that good [ __ ] um so uh so perhaps that
you know perhaps that'll be of interest
anyways I'll end things right there as
always I'll wish you the best best take
care much love and see you hopefully
tomorrow
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