حاتم الفلاحي: عملية حشد لكلا الطرفين قبل الهجوم في مدينة حمص

Summary

In this expert analysis, Colonel Hatim Karim Al-Falahi discusses the ongoing developments in the Syrian conflict, focusing on the significant military maneuvers around Homs and the shifting control in various regions. He explains the strategic importance of controlling key areas like Homs, and how the Syrian opposition forces are progressing despite government efforts to fortify their defenses. The discussion also covers the role of airstrikes, military reinforcements, and the potential impact of territorial control on the broader conflict, including the complexities of the regime’s collapse and the opposition’s push towards Damascus.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Syrian opposition forces are making significant progress towards Homs, with only about 12 kilometers separating them from the city. This was expected as the government forces are attempting to block their advance by targeting key transportation routes like the Rastan Bridge.
• 😀 The Syrian government forces have been focused on delaying opposition movements in Hama, and have set up defensive lines around Homs to slow the opposition’s advance before retreating to the city.
• 😀 The opposition is likely to face direct clashes with government forces in the coming days as they push towards Homs, which has become a key strategic target for both sides.
• 😀 The government has been deploying reinforcements to areas around Homs, particularly in an attempt to create a defensive buffer, but these forces are seen as temporary measures before withdrawing to stronger positions.
• 😀 The opposition may use multi-directional approaches to surround and attack government forces, as demonstrated by their movements in Hama, to avoid concentrated confrontations with the government’s defense lines.
• 😀 The Syrian government's reliance on air support, particularly from Shaheen aircraft, is crucial in hindering the opposition’s advance, but its effectiveness could be limited by the growing proximity of opposition forces to key government-held positions.
• 😀 Despite the importance of military airports like Shaayrat, they are unlikely to be used extensively due to the risks posed by artillery and missile fire, and the government's air assets are expected to be stationed further away from the front lines.
• 😀 The fall of towns like Rastan and Talbiseh is creating a domino effect where other towns are being handed over to opposition forces, signaling a rapid collapse of government control in these areas.
• 😀 The Syrian opposition’s strategy appears focused on maintaining momentum towards Homs, with a long-term goal of isolating Damascus from coastal regions, which would severely impact the government's logistics and defense capabilities.
• 😀 As opposition forces gain control over significant territories, including Hama and Homs, the government's ability to maintain a balanced defense becomes increasingly difficult, leading to a situation where the forces are overstretched and unable to recover quickly.

Q & A

What is the current military situation in the region around Homs?

The situation around Homs is evolving rapidly, with opposition forces advancing towards the city, approximately 12 kilometers away. The Syrian government forces are attempting to disrupt opposition advances, particularly by targeting bridges like the one in Rastan to slow down the opposition's progress.

Why is the government trying to delay the opposition's progress in Homs?

The Syrian government forces have been trying to delay opposition movements, particularly by building defensive lines in and around Homs. This strategy aims to slow down the opposition’s advance, giving the government time to reinforce its positions, especially by using aerial strikes against opposition supply lines.

How significant is the opposition's progress towards Homs?

The opposition's progress is significant as it brings them closer to engaging with government forces directly in Homs. The opposition is pushing hard to maintain momentum and prevent any retreat or regrouping by the Syrian army, particularly focusing on surrounding key defensive points.

What is the purpose of the government reinforcements being sent to Homs?

The reinforcements are meant to act as a buffer, stalling the opposition's advance temporarily. These forces are deployed in a delaying role, fighting small engagements to slow the opposition's progress, with the ultimate aim of pulling back to a more fortified defensive position inside Homs.

What are the key strategies used by the opposition forces in their attack?

The opposition forces are employing a multi-pronged attack strategy, including frontal assaults and flanking maneuvers. They focus on exploiting weak points in the government’s defense lines, often attempting to encircle key areas, as seen in previous battles like those in Hama.

How does the air force play a role in the conflict around Homs?

The air force, particularly through the use of Shaheen aircraft, is playing a crucial role in targeting opposition supply convoys and retreating units. While air superiority helps the Syrian government, the opposition is also taking measures to counter these aerial strikes.

What is the strategic importance of the Syrian city of Homs?

Homs is strategically important due to its location as a gateway between Damascus and the coastal regions, particularly the Alawite strongholds in Tartus and Latakia. Losing control of Homs would significantly affect the government's ability to control vital supply lines and maintain cohesion between different regions.

How significant is the battle for the coastal region, including Tartus and Latakia?

The battle for the coastal region is crucial for the Syrian government as it controls vital ports and military installations. Losing these regions would isolate the government forces in the northwest, cutting off supply routes and weakening its position in the broader conflict.

What impact would the capture of Homs have on the government's ability to defend Damascus?

Capturing Homs would severely weaken the government's ability to defend Damascus. It would cut off a critical supply route and create a direct path for the opposition forces to advance toward the capital, putting the government under increased pressure from multiple directions.

What challenges do government forces face in holding onto Homs and the surrounding areas?

The government forces are facing several challenges, including a shortage of personnel and resources, particularly after heavy losses in Hama and Aleppo. These shortages make it difficult for the Syrian army to effectively respond to opposition maneuvers and defend key strategic locations like Homs.