Pepe Escobar : Russia’s Next Move.

Summary

In this compelling interview, Judge Andrew Napolitano discusses the recent developments in Syria with Pepe Escobar, covering the unexpected collapse of the Syrian Arab Army, the involvement of Turkey, Russia, and the U.S., and the rise of extremist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Escobar analyzes the geopolitical implications, including the role of Israel, the shifting dynamics in the Middle East, and the looming threat of balkanization in Syria. The conversation also touches on the complexities of the region, the future of Hezbollah and Palestine, and the broader strategic interests of global powers in the Syrian conflict.

Takeaways

• 😀 The ongoing Syrian conflict is marked by a series of complex geopolitical moves involving Turkey, Russia, and other international actors, leading to an unstable situation in the region.
• 😀 Turkey's involvement in Syria, particularly under President Erdogan, is driven by a desire to reclaim territories like Aleppo, which were historically part of the Ottoman Empire.
• 😀 The Syrian Arab Army's collapse was influenced by a mix of factors, including corruption, lack of morale, and broken promises from Russia and NATO-backed forces.
• 😀 The US, Israel, and Turkey provided indirect support to the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) through various channels, including intelligence cooperation.
• 😀 HTS leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, rebranded his group as a new Islamic force to gain international legitimacy, despite its terrorist roots.
• 😀 The future of Syria seems to be one of anarchy and potential balkanization, as different regions and factions vie for control in a fragmented state.
• 😀 Israel stands to gain from Syria's disintegration, as a balkanized Syria could make it easier for Israel to annex territories in the region.
• 😀 Hezbollah and Palestine face uncertain futures, as Hezbollah is rebuilding after losses, and there's a growing possibility that Israel could target Palestinian populations for relocation.
• 😀 President-elect Trump's claim that Russia abandoned Assad is considered inaccurate, as Russia made several attempts to intervene, but Assad's decisions led to the collapse of his regime.
• 😀 The future of Syria is highly uncertain, with complex alliances at play between regional powers, and there will likely be major geopolitical consequences in the aftermath of this conflict.

Q & A

What is the main concern about the value of the US dollar mentioned in the transcript?

The main concern is that the US dollar is losing its value due to the Federal Reserve's money printing and inflationary pressures. The speaker warns that the dollar is at risk of becoming extinct globally, especially with countries like Russia and China leading the push to replace it with other currencies, such as gold or a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

How does the speaker view the collapse of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its implications?

The speaker views the collapse of the Syrian Arab Army as a result of a series of strategic and diplomatic failures. They emphasize that Syria's reliance on promises from NATO and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, coupled with internal corruption and loss of morale among the Syrian forces, led to the army's downfall.

What role did Turkey play in the events in Syria, according to the transcript?

Turkey, led by President Erdogan, is portrayed as a key player in the Syrian conflict, aiming to regain control over Aleppo and expand Turkish influence in the region. Turkey worked closely with groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other factions, with backing from NATO and Israel. The transcript suggests that Erdogan's ambitions include reasserting Turkish control over parts of Syria.

How did President Assad’s visit to Moscow in November 2024 impact Syria's situation?

Assad's visit to Moscow is seen as a turning point. The speaker suggests that despite expecting support from Russia, Assad received nothing from his meeting with Putin, signaling that Russia was no longer willing to fully back him. This led to internal disillusionment within the Syrian military and intelligence services, hastening the collapse of Assad's regime.

What role did external intelligence agencies, like the CIA and MI6, play in Syria’s downfall?

The transcript suggests that external intelligence agencies, including the CIA, MI6, and Turkish Intelligence (MIT), were indirectly involved in supporting factions like HTS in Syria. They saw the potential of these groups in challenging Assad's rule and worked behind the scenes to bolster them, despite these factions being labeled as terrorist organizations by the West.

What does the transcript reveal about the future of Damascus under HTS control?

Under HTS control, the transcript predicts a harsh future for anyone not subscribing to a Salafi-Jihadist interpretation of Islam. Secular Syrians, Christians, Shiites, and those who oppose HTS ideology are expected to face persecution, with the possibility of repression and violence becoming widespread in Damascus.

Why does the speaker claim that balkanization of Syria is imminent?

The speaker claims that Syria is likely to break up into smaller, disconnected regions due to internal divisions, including tribal conflicts, ideological differences, and the influence of foreign powers. The ongoing chaos in regions like the Northeast, where Kurdish forces and conservative Islamic tribes clash, exemplifies this fragmentation.

How do Israel and other external powers benefit from Syria's balkanization?

According to the speaker, Israel stands to benefit from Syria’s balkanization as it would make it easier for Israel to annex parts of Syria. A fragmented Syria would be less able to resist external interference and would allow Israel to expand its territorial claims in the region.

What is the likely response of Hezbollah and Palestine to the collapse of Syria?

Hezbollah is expected to rebuild its forces despite challenges, particularly the disruption of its land bridge through Syria. The situation in Palestine, however, is more uncertain. The speaker mentions that if Syria falls completely, the fate of Palestine could be dire, with some extreme voices in Israel advocating for the displacement of Palestinians to Syria.

How does the speaker critique the US and UK’s involvement in the Syrian conflict?

The speaker criticizes the US and UK for backing groups like HTS, which are ideologically opposed to Western values. They question how the West, which claimed to be fighting against extremism in places like Afghanistan and Iraq, could support factions in Syria that are similar to the very groups they previously fought against.