See what three degrees of global warming looks like

Summary

The video script discusses the potentially catastrophic consequences of a 3°C global temperature increase, highlighting the significant impact on weather patterns, sea levels, and agriculture. It emphasizes that children born today face a heightened risk of extreme weather events due to the warming already experienced since the industrial revolution. The script illustrates the real-life effects through the story of Minara, a climate refugee from Bangladesh, and explores the global implications, including the vulnerability of cities and small-scale farmers. It also addresses the socio-economic repercussions, such as increased migration and resource competition, and the potential for societal collapse in some regions. The importance of mitigation and adaptation strategies is stressed, with a call to action to reduce emissions and prevent the 3°C scenario from becoming a reality.

Takeaways

• 🌡️ A global temperature rise of 3°C could lead to catastrophic consequences such as heatwaves, droughts, and extreme precipitation.
• 🌍 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth's temperature has already risen between 1.1°C and 1.3°C, with children today facing seven times more extreme weather than their grandparents.
• 🏙️ Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their denser populations and the potential for magnified climate events.
• 🌾 Small-scale farmers, who produce a third of the global food supply, are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, such as longer and more severe dry seasons.
• 🏞️ A 3°C increase in temperature could result in desertification, rising sea levels, and a significant drop in annual rainfall in certain regions.
• 🌊 Coastal areas with populations living less than 10 meters above sea level face the threat of displacement due to rising sea levels and increased storm surges.
• 🏭 Wealthier cities have the means to adapt to climate change, but those that are unprepared could face severe challenges in a 3°C world.
• 🌡️ The human body has a limit to tolerating high wet-bulb temperatures, beyond which heat cannot be effectively dissipated, leading to potential fatalities.
• 🌳 Diversifying agriculture and implementing physical barriers like seawalls are some of the adaptation strategies that can help mitigate the effects of climate change.
• 📉 Efforts on mitigation and working towards negative emissions are crucial to prevent the planet's temperature from reaching 3°C, which would be disastrous.
• ⏰ Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions are projected to rise, making the likelihood of a 3°C warmer world uncomfortably high unless more action is taken.

Q & A

What is the significance of a 3°C global temperature increase?

A 3°C global temperature increase would be catastrophic, leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, and potentially devastating wildfires. It would have a profound impact on ecosystems, agriculture, and human societies worldwide.

How much has the Earth warmed since the industrial revolution?

Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C, which has already led to significant changes in climate patterns and weather-related disasters.

What are the potential consequences of a 3°C temperature rise for children born today?

Children born today are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather events than their grandparents due to the increased likelihood of climate-related disasters such as heatwaves, floods, and storms.

What is the current state of climate migrants in Bangladesh?

The slums of Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, are filling up with climate migrants who have lost their homes due to rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers. Many have fled areas like Bhola District, which has been severely impacted by these climate-related changes.

What does climate scientist Joeri Rogelj's work entail?

Joeri Rogelj has spent the last ten years modeling future climate scenarios for the United Nations. His projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists globally and represent the state of the art in our current knowledge of climate change.

What is the likelihood of reaching a 3°C global temperature increase by the end of the century under current policies?

Under current policies, there is at least a one-in-four chance that we would hit 3°C by the end of the century according to Joeri Rogelj's models.

How might a 3°C temperature rise affect cities and their populations?

A 3°C rise would affect everyone, including those in wealthy cities. Cities like Paris and Berlin could experience more extreme heatwaves, and places like New York could face frequent storm-surges that could turn parts of the city desolate. Cities may also magnify and intensify climate events due to their density and infrastructure.

What is the impact of climate change on smallholders in Central America's 'Dry Corridor'?

Smallholders in Central America's 'Dry Corridor' are experiencing longer and more severe dry seasons, making it harder to grow crops like corn and beans. This has led to increased poverty and malnutrition among children, with nearly two-thirds of smallholders in the region now living in poverty.

What are the potential consequences of a 3°C temperature rise for coastal regions?

A 3°C rise could spell disaster for coastal inhabitants, with global sea levels potentially climbing by half a meter from 2005 levels by 2100. Low-lying cities like Lagos could see a significant portion of their population displaced, and rising waters are already affecting communities like the village of Togoru in Fiji.

How does a 3°C global temperature increase affect the potential for societal collapse?

In a 3°C world, climate extremes could lead some places to the brink of societal collapse due to increased competition for resources like water, exacerbated national tensions, and the mass displacement of people due to climate disasters.

What is the importance of mitigation and adaptation efforts in preventing a 3°C world?

Mitigation efforts, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and working towards negative emissions, are crucial to prevent the planet from reaching a 3°C temperature increase. Adaptation efforts can reduce suffering but will not eliminate it; thus, preventing a 3°C increase is the best strategy to avoid global trouble.

What is the current trajectory of greenhouse-gas emissions according to existing pledges?

Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030, which underscores the urgency of immediate and more drastic measures to reduce emissions and prevent a 3°C world.