PlanB Bitcoin Prediction May 2024
Summary
TLDRIn this insightful video, the host delves into the Bitcoin market using seven key charts to analyze trends and make predictions. Despite a slight dip this month, Bitcoin remains 36% up year-to-date. The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, which has historically been accurate, suggests a price target of around $500k by 2024 and $100k this year due to the need for mining revenue recovery post-halving. The Market Cycle model indicates that the current bull market is ongoing, with dips of up to 25% considered normal. Technical indicators like the RSI have normalized, and the 200-week moving average provides a conservative floor. The realized price and return metrics offer insights into market support levels and profit-taking behavior. Overall, the video presents a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, suggesting exponential returns until at least 50% adoption is reached.
Takeaways
- 📈 Bitcoin closed the month slightly above $60k, which is $10k below the previous month, but still up 36% year to date.
- 🔍 The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model shows an average price of $34,000, slightly below the $55,000 predicted by the 2019 model, but within the same order of magnitude.
- ⏳ This month marks the last 'blue dot' before the countdown to the next Bitcoin halving in 2028 begins.
- 📊 The model suggests that the Bitcoin price will likely catch up to the model value, which is expected to rise after each halving, with the error margin decreasing over time.
- 💰 The presenter predicts that Bitcoin will inevitably reach $100k in 2024 due to the need for mining revenue to recover after the halving, which reduced revenue by 50%.
- 📉 Despite market dips, the Bitcoin Market Cycle model indicates that the bull market is still ongoing, with on-chain transactions signaling its continuation.
- 📌 The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has normalized to 66 after a high of 77, suggesting potential for further price increases in the upcoming months.
- 💹 The 200-week moving average for Bitcoin has increased slightly to $34,000, providing a conservative floor for the price in a bullish market.
- 💰 The realized price of Bitcoin, which is the cost price weighted against the last transacted price, is currently at $29,000, providing a strong support level in the market.
- 📈 The realized return for Bitcoin in April was positive at 7%, indicating that sellers are taking profits, which is typical behavior in a bull market.
- 🔄 Bitcoin in profit has dropped slightly, with 12% of holdings now in loss, which could be compared to similar patterns seen in 2020 and 2012 before the market resumed its upward trend.
Q & A
What is the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model?
-The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is a chart that uses the existing supply of Bitcoin (stock) and the amount of new Bitcoin generated (flow) to predict future price movements. It's based on the concept that the scarcity of Bitcoin, as new coins are produced at a decreasing rate, will drive up its price.
How did Bitcoin perform in the month discussed in the script?
-Bitcoin closed the month slightly above $60,000, which was $10,000 below the previous month's close. Despite this, Bitcoin is still up by 36% year to date.
What is the significance of the 'blue dot' in the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model?
-The 'blue dot' represents the current month in the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model. It signifies the last month before the countdown to the next Bitcoin halving event begins, which occurs approximately every four years.
What is the current average price of Bitcoin according to the model?
-The current average price of Bitcoin, as calculated by the Stock-to-Flow model, is $34,000.
What is the predicted target price for Bitcoin by 2024 and 2028?
-The predicted target price for Bitcoin by 2024 and 2028, according to the updated model parameters, is still around $500,000 on average.
Why is the halving event important in the Bitcoin market?
-The halving event is significant because it reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, effectively decreasing the supply. This reduction in supply typically leads to an increase in price, as the scarcity of Bitcoin increases.
What does the 'realized price' of Bitcoin represent?
-The 'realized price' of Bitcoin represents the cost price of all Bitcoins in circulation, weighted against their last transacted price. It provides insight into the average selling price of Bitcoin over a given period.
What is the current realized price of Bitcoin?
-The current realized price of Bitcoin is $29,000, and the two-year realized price is $45,000.
What does the 'realized return' indicate?
-The 'realized return' indicates the profit or loss that sellers are making when they sell their Bitcoins. A positive realized return, like the current 7%, suggests that sellers are taking profits in the market.
What is the current status of the Bitcoin market cycle?
-The Bitcoin market cycle, as indicated by the on-chain transactions, is still in a bull market phase, despite recent dips in price.
What is the significance of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the context of Bitcoin's market cycle?
-The RSI is a technical indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. In the context of Bitcoin's market cycle, a high RSI, such as above 80, indicates steep price increases and a strong bull market.
What does the 'Bitcoin in profit' metric represent?
-The 'Bitcoin in profit' metric represents the percentage of Bitcoin holdings that are currently in profit. A drop in this metric indicates that a portion of Bitcoin holders are experiencing losses, which can influence market sentiment and behavior.
Outlines
📈 Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model and Market Analysis
The video discusses the Bitcoin market using various models and indicators. The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is highlighted, showing that despite a lower closing price this month compared to last, Bitcoin is still up by 36% year to date. The video emphasizes that this month is the last 'blue dot' before the next Bitcoin halving in 2028, which historically coincides with the model's price. The average price is calculated at $34,000, slightly below the 2019 model's $55,000 prediction but still within the same order of magnitude. The presenter predicts that the price will gradually align with the model's value, suggesting a potential price increase. The video also discusses the inevitability of reaching $100K this year due to the need for mining revenue recovery following the halving. It concludes by contemplating whether Bitcoin's price will follow diminishing returns or continue to provide exponential returns, with the presenter leaning towards the latter until at least 50% adoption is achieved.
🔍 Bitcoin Market Cycle and Technical Indicators
The script moves on to the Bitcoin Market Cycle, noting that despite some believing the bull market is over, on-chain transactions indicate it continues. The presenter uses this to stress the importance of models over emotions. Dips of up to 25% in a bull market are considered normal. Technical indicators such as the RSI are discussed, noting that it has normalized to 66 from the previous high of 77. The presenter anticipates that RSI will exceed 80, indicating a strong bull market with significant price increases. The 200-week moving average is highlighted as a conservative floor at $34,000. The realized price of Bitcoin, representing the cost price weighted against the last transacted price, is noted as a significant support level in bull markets. The presenter observes a plateau in the realized price and suggests that market dips typically bounce at this level. The script ends with a brief mention of the realized return being positive at 7%, indicating that sellers are taking profits, which is a logical move in a bull market.
📊 Bitcoin Realized Metrics and Market Behavior
The video script delves into Bitcoin's realized metrics, explaining that the realized price, which is the cost price of all Bitcoins weighted against their last transacted price, is currently at $29,000, with the two-year realized price at $45,000. The presenter suggests that dips in the market usually find support at the realized price level and that this pattern is likely to continue. The realized return is mentioned as being positive at 7%, indicating that sellers in April have seen a profit. This is framed as a typical behavior in a bull market, especially for those new to cryptocurrency investing. The percentage of Bitcoin in profit has decreased as some buyers at the $70k mark are now at a loss. The presenter draws parallels with market behavior in 2020 and 2012, suggesting that the current situation is similar to these periods and that the bull market is likely to resume after the current dip.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Stock-to-Flow Model
💡Market Cycle Model
💡Relative Strength Index (RSI)
💡200 Week Moving Average
💡Realized Price
💡Realized Return
💡Bitcoin Halving
💡Exponential Returns
💡On-Chain Transactions
💡Dips and Bull Markets
Highlights
Bitcoin closed the month slightly above $60k, erasing the $10k gain from the previous month.
Despite the lower closing price, Bitcoin is still up 36% year to date.
This month is the last 'blue dot' before the countdown to the next Bitcoin halving in 2028 begins.
The average Bitcoin price calculated at the moment is $34,000, slightly below the 2019 stock-to-flow model prediction of $55,000.
The Bitcoin stock-to-flow model parameters have not changed significantly, with targets for 2024 and 2028 still around $500k on average.
The halving event typically sees a decrease in error as the Bitcoin price catches up with the model value.
The presenter predicts that Bitcoin will inevitably reach $100k in 2024 due to the need for mining revenue to recover after the halving.
The Bitcoin market cycle model indicates that the bull market continues, with the red dot not turning to yellow.
RSI has normalized to 66, which is above the levels seen during the 2020 halving, suggesting potential for higher RSI and price increases.
The 200-week moving average for Bitcoin is at $34,000, serving as a conservative floor in the current bull market.
The realized price of Bitcoin, reflecting the cost basis of all Bitcoins, is at $29,000, providing a significant support level in the bull market.
Dips in the market usually bounce at the realized price level, as seen in previous bull markets.
The realized return for Bitcoin in April was positive at 7%, indicating sellers are taking profits.
Bitcoin in profit has dropped, with 12% of holdings now in loss, reflecting a common behavior in bull markets.
The presenter suggests that the current market situation is similar to that of 2012, with a potential for the bull market to resume after a dip.
The presenter encourages subscribers to continue following the channel for more insights on Bitcoin and the market.
Transcripts
welcome back to plan B on YouTube today
we discuss Bitcoin markets using these
seven charts Bitcoin stock tolow model
the market cycle model relative strength
index 200 week moving average Bitcoin
realized price realized return and
Bitcoin in profit so the first chart
Bitcoin stock to flow
model uh Bitcoin closed this month a bit
above 60k
and that's 10K below last month uh
actually completely erasing last month's
10K
gain um so maybe the 70k of last month
was a bit too much that was ETF fomo and
of course there was a never seen before
alltime high before the halfing and all
that
so despite this a bit lower uh closing
price this month Bitcoin is still 36% up
year to date and also Bitcoin is at the
haling because this month is the last uh
blue
dot um because it's month
zero here and from next month may we
will count down again to the next
halfing in 2028 but this month is the
last Blue Dot and every blue dot last
Blue Dot every haling has been at this
gray stock tolow model price so that's
very nice um also the average price is
something that we can calculate at the
moment it's
34,000 and that's a little below of
course the um
55,000 that the 2019 original stock to
flow model predicted but it's ballpark
okay it's the same order of magnitude
and and don't forget in 20 9 the Bitcoin
price was below
4,000 so um also note that the average
bitcoin price was above the stock to
flow model price in the cycle before the
last cycle the 2016 2020 cycle so um I
updated the model uh parameters did not
change much uh 2024 2028 Target is still
around 500k on average so uh also note
that the error always goes down um after
the halfing so there is a halfing the
model value goes up and it of course it
takes some time the Bitcoin price has a
lag to catch up with the model value
it's every halfing it's the same it will
also be true this halfing in my opinion
so we see the error already going down
it will go down again because the price
will not be 500k of course uh in May it
will slowly over the months uh go into
the that model price so what's next for
2024 I repeat the same as last video it
is inevitable that we reach 100K in my
opinion because minor Revenue
has to recover and Mining Revenue
because of the halfing did half um um
all the miners the entire
industry has seen its Revenue drop by
50% and it has to recover and usually
last three halings it did recover within
four to eight months so that's well
within this year 2024 and the only way
for mining Revenue to recover is that
price doubles so estimating from current
price of 60k we should be well above
100k this
year then 2025 I think the top will be
then because historically the top of the
bull market after the has been after the
halfing and and about one year one and a
half year after the halfing so that's
that brings us in
2025 and the big question of course is
um will the price follow diminishing
returns um and I think a price of well
around 200k for the top uh will be in
line with diminishing returns or will
price indeed follow the stock to flow
model again and will there be
exponential returns again you know my
answer I think stock to Flo is still
valid I think we will have exponential
returns at least until 50% adoption um
and we're now at well somewhere between
1 and
10% uh so far away from that 50%
adoption I think exponential returns are
what we're going to
see okay next
chart the Bitcoin Market cycle and
everybody was watching for that red dot
if it would turn to Yellow it did not so
the uh the bull market continues I know
the emotions are very different I know
some the bull markets over uh already
but that's exactly why we use models to
fight against emotions and the onchain
transactions that this Market cycle
indicator is based on the onchain
transactions signal that we are still in
a bull market despite this little dip
and note by the way
that here is a dip as well
here's a dip as well it's very
similar here's a dip here's a dip so red
doesn't mean there won't be dips in fact
uh 25% dips are quite normal in a bull
market so better get used to it there
might be more um but the good thing is
red will continue in my opinion next
chart let's go to the technical
indicators RSI last time we had a very
high RSI of 77 and this month last month
it dropped to 66 it normalized if you
will because we were talking here about
well is this normal it's the highest uh
it could be normalizing it could be a
new normal but okay so it normalized and
it's now at the level of the last couple
of halfing so this is the 2012
halfing the 2016 halfing and the 2020
halfing was of course below so we're
above the 2020 halfing levels in in
RSI and well this is the the last Blue
Dot the next dot the May dot will be red
so in fact we haven't even started yet
in my opinion so I think that the red
dots that we will see uh starting from
May the red dots will be higher than the
blue dots so the red RSI will be higher
than the blue RSI which means uh we will
see rsis well above
80 like we have seen in the previous
bull markets and that means large price
increases RZ R RSI
80 is
really absolute steep price increases
and a real bull market so I think we're
U we still have that in front of
us if we look at
the 200 week moving
average nothing much happened it it
increased a little as it all as the 200
we moving average always does and it's
now at at
34,000 so you can see that is a very
conservative floor but in Bull
markets uh it's indeed very conservative
in bare markets it might touch or even
go below the 200 we moving average but
in Bull markets we will go
uh far higher and I think uh the 200
week moving average is maybe not not
very
interesting this chart the realiz price
is very interesting and I tell you why
the realiz price which is basically the
cost price of Bitcoin all the Bitcoins
all the 19.6 million Bitcoins weighted
against their last transacted price is
now um it's now it's now
$29,000 and the twoyear realized price
is
$45,000 it's a little bit higher than
last month but it's plateauing a little
bit same is true for the femon um uh
realized price is at 60k right
now and the very interesting thing is
that that is a huge support level in
Bull markets so dips like we see like we
seeing last month usually bounce on the
femon realized price the short-term
hudler also known as and we can see that
here in 2020 it was a bull market it
dropped till the five Monon realized
price and you can also see the plateau
in the realized price and the two-year
realized price you can see it here in
2017 here in 2017 that little dip
dipped until the light blue femon
realized price and then went up again I
think that's what we're going to see as
well and it same happened in in 2012
right here puff it goes to the the light
blue line and then resumes the bull the
bull market I think that's the exact
same situation that we're in right
now realized
price and now realized return realized
return is still positive 7% so April
sellers got 7% return and the data
suggests that the sellers are taking
profit and that uh it's not the ETF weak
hands that sold uh taking profit in a
bull market is a very logical thing to
do especially for traditional Finance
people 7% is a lot in um in a couple of
months in traditional Finance terms so
don't blame them uh sometimes and
especially if you're new to the market
to the Bitcoin Market you want to see if
if the profits are real and you want to
take the profit out and and and uh and
then reinvest it that's what I think is
going to happen Bitcoin in profit also
dropped a bit of course it's not 100%
anymore because the buyers at 70k are in
loss and um so so 12% is in loss right
now and that's yellow
and we could probably compare that a
little bit to what happened in 2020 here
red red yellow and then the bull market
resumes or in 2012 we see a beginning of
the bull market and then yellow and then
second start I don't think we can
compare it to
2013 which was after a
10K and then uh the bull market
continued to do another
10K uh or um with 2019 when there was a
very early bull market a year or it
seemed to be a very early bull market
year before the halfing that was just
too early we're now at the halfing so I
think it's more like 20120 and 2012 but
time will tell okay please subscribe to
this channel because it really helps me
get the content to more people thank you
for watching
Посмотреть больше похожих видео
Bitcoin BTC: When Will The Bull Run TOP? - NOT WHAT YOU EXPECT!
Macro Taking 'Wind' Out of Crypto: Starkiller's Drogen
🦈BTC Apex Predator! Everyone FOMOing - New ATH soon🚀
$SPY WEEKLY STOCK MARKET UPDATE $SPY $NVDA $BTC
🚨 URGENTE! CRIPTOMOEDAS CAINDO MUITO BITCOIN EM QUEDA CRIPTOMOEDAS EM RECESSÃO ?? AUGUSTO BACKES
🚨 Bitcoin Support: Exchange Balances vs OTC Desks💥📊
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)