Nightly Scan 09/27 + First Week October Outlook

Summary

The speaker discusses their successful stock and options trades, particularly focusing on TSM, AMD, and SHOP. They express regret for not capitalizing fully on TSM's potential but highlight their substantial gains on AMD and SHOP. The speaker also shares their trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of patience and conviction. They review their current positions and future trade plans, including watching for specific price levels and potential market movements.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker feels great and had a successful trading day, with multiple positions yielding over 200% returns.
• 📈 TSM (TSMC) options mentioned had the potential to earn six figures but were trimmed early after an initial loss, resulting in a significant gain nonetheless.
• 💹 AMD had a strong upward movement, and the speaker anticipates a continued rise, possibly to the 175 level, with a pullback to 162 being an area of interest.
• 📊 The speaker discusses a strategy of taking profits on long-dated calls and rolling into shorter-dated contracts for more aggressive moves after resistance levels are broken.
• 🛍 MU (Micron Technology) had a significant earnings-related gap up, and the speaker is looking for a pullback to add to positions, targeting the 130 call level.
• 📉 The speaker took profits on SHOP (Shopify) after a large move up and is looking for a pullback to around 7705 to add again, with an eye on the 835 resistance level.
• 🌐 The overall market is discussed, with a potential window of weakness until October 7th, suggesting a possible pullback and the opportunity to buy dips.
• 📅 Upcoming economic events like PCE and non-farm payrolls are highlighted, which may influence market movements, particularly in the first week of October.
• 🚀 The speaker took a position in SMCI ahead of its stock split, expecting a potential pop based on a fair value gap and recent price action.
• ⏰ Patience and conviction in trading strategies are emphasized, with the speaker noting the importance of waiting for the right opportunities and sticking to a plan.

Q & A

What was the speaker's strategy with TSM 180 calls for October 18th?

The speaker had a strategy to buy TSM 180 calls for October 18th at a low price, expecting the contracts to go as low as 1.2. They planned to average down their cost to around 200-220 if the price broke support at 168-165, but the contracts never reached their desired entry point.

How did the speaker's AMD position perform?

The speaker's AMD position performed well, with the stock price breaking above a certain resistance level. They took profits by trimming almost all of their position, leaving only one contract. They expected the stock to continue moving up to 175 and were looking for a pullback to re-enter the position.

What was the speaker's view on MU after earnings?

The speaker viewed MU positively after earnings, noting that the stock gapped up significantly and held above a certain level post-earnings, which they considered a good sign. They were looking to roll into 130 calls again but wanted to wait for the contracts to cool down and implied volatility to decrease.

What was the speaker's strategy for SHOP stock?

The speaker was waiting for a pullback in SHOP stock to add to their position. They mentioned a specific level, 7705, as the prime area to add on a pullback. They were targeting a move up to fill a gap around 90-91.

How did the speaker feel about QQQ and what was their strategy?

The speaker had a positive view on QQQ, having taken a position that went up 70%. They expected QQQ to continue its upward trajectory and were looking for a move up to 493. Their strategy was to take profits and roll to shorter dated contracts for more aggressive moves.

What was the speaker's experience with CROWD stock?

The speaker did not provide specific details about their experience with CROWD stock in the script, but they mentioned it as one of their primary focuses along with INTC and FSLR.

What was the speaker's take on the market's potential weakness in the first week of October?

The speaker anticipated a potential weakness in the market during the first week of October due to a lack of flows supporting the market. They suggested this could lead to a selloff, which they would view as an opportunity to buy the dip.

What economic indicators was the speaker going to watch for in the upcoming week?

The speaker planned to watch for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and non-farm payrolls as economic indicators in the upcoming week.

What was the speaker's strategy for INTC and FSLR?

The speaker was looking to take positions in INTC and FSLR. For INTC, they were waiting for the stock to either get above 2459 or pull back to 2194. For FSLR, they were considering taking calls for October 18th or even stretching to the 300 call, depending on how the stock reacted to the PCE data.

What did the speaker mean by 'fair value gap' in the context of SMCI?

The speaker referred to a 'fair value gap' in SMCI as a significant price imbalance that occurred due to a probe announcement before a stock split. They believed that if the stock could confirm above a certain level, it could pop back up to 471, representing a substantial potential gain.