OPTIONS Trading Ideas | July Week #4 | Xtrades

Summary

In this video, Alex from xtrades reviews the previous week's market volatility, influenced by political events and pre-election tensions, and provides a recap of the trade ideas list. He discusses specific stock performances, including U calls and Nike calls, and shares the outcomes of trades like WBA and QQQ. Alex also previews upcoming economic data releases and earnings reports from major companies like Tesla and Google, and offers insights into potential trades for the week, focusing on stocks like iWM, AMD, and CLH, while emphasizing the importance of monitoring the VIX for market sentiment.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker, Alex from xtrades, provides a weekly trade ideas list and discusses the volatile market conditions due to political events and pre-election uncertainty.
• 📉 There was a significant market pullback, particularly affecting tech and chip names, which resulted in losses despite some good trade ideas from the previous week.
• 🔄 Alex mentions specific stocks and their performance, such as U calls that peaked on Thursday and then experienced a substantial pullback, and Nike calls that remained mostly unchanged.
• 🚀 The video discusses the breakout and pullback of Neo, a stock that initially showed promise but failed to maintain its upward momentum, closing below the 50 SMA.
• 🛑 The trade tensions and potential tariff increases on Chinese electric vehicles are highlighted as reasons for the market's downward trend, affecting China names negatively.
• 🏁 Alex closed a position in WBA with significant gains before the stock aggressively sold off, demonstrating the importance of timing in trades.
• 📊 The importance of economic data releases like GDP and PCE is emphasized for their potential impact on market movements, with the latter being the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
• 📈 The speaker anticipates potential opportunities in indexes like SPY, QQQ, and IWN, suggesting that a bounce from the 9 EMA could be a good entry point for trades.
• 📉 The video outlines specific support and resistance levels for stocks like AMD and CLH, indicating strategies for potential dead cat bounces or value area entries.
• 📝 Alex provides a detailed analysis of the SPY and QQQ levels, emphasizing the need for these indexes to reclaim certain levels to continue their uptrend and the significance of the 921 EMA cloud.
• 💡 The closing levels of the VIX are identified as crucial for market direction, with a close under certain levels indicating potential market bounces or continued volatility.

Q & A

What was the general market condition described in the video?

The video describes an insane week politically and for the markets, with a big pullback and lots of pre-election volatility, especially downside in chip names and tech stocks.

How did the U calls on watch perform last week?

The U calls on watch performed well initially, running up about 8 to 10% until Thursday, but then had a significant pullback, resulting in a red close for the week and wiping out all the gains.

What was the status of Nike calls on watch?

Nike calls on watch ended up being essentially unchanged, staying within range and not moving significantly from the previous week's close. The key level to watch for Nike is over $74.

What happened with Neo on watch?

Neo on watch broke out of a channel initially, had a good run on Tuesday, but then slowed down and fell back within the channel, making it less attractive for immediate trades.

What was the impact of Trump's trade tensions and potential tariff increases on the market?

The trade tensions and potential tariff increases, particularly on Chinese electric vehicles, likely contributed to the pullback in China names and added to the market's volatility.

How did the WBA position perform and when was it closed?

The WBA position was closed in two portions, with the first portion closing at about 28% and the remainder at about 37%. This was fortunate as WBA rejected very aggressively and sold off on Thursday and Friday.

What was the outcome of the QQQ call Scout and the SPY calls?

The QQQ call Scout resulted in a 35% loss, but the SPY calls made up for it with a 44% gain, achieved by buying at a qy level and selling just in time before a significant sell-off.

What was the performance of the iWM 215 puts?

The iWM 215 puts initially resulted in a loss of about 30 to 40%, but eventually, iWM came back down as expected, and the position was closed with a gain of about 21% on Friday.

What economic data is expected to have the most impact on the market this week according to the video?

The most impactful economic data of the week is expected to be the GDP on Thursday and the PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, along with consumer sentiment on Friday.

What are the key levels to watch for the SPY and QQQ indexes?

For SPY, key levels include holding the trend line, getting back over $550, and reclaiming the 921 EMA cloud. For QQQ, it's crucial to get back over $476.26, holding above the support at $473.82, and reclaiming the trend line and the 921 EMA cloud.

What is the significance of the VIX levels mentioned in the video?

The VIX levels mentioned are crucial for market sentiment. Closing back under 16 and 1540 on the VIX is key for a bounce in the market, while levels like 1794 and 2136 are significant resistance areas that could lead to rejections and potential market pullbacks.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Weekly Trade Recap and Market Overview

Alex from xtrades provides a recap of the previous week's trading activities, mentioning the significant market pullback due to pre-election volatility, particularly affecting tech and chip names. He reviews the performance of U calls, Nike calls, and Neo, noting the impact of political drama and trade tensions on China names. He also discusses his trades, including WBA and QQQ call positions, and highlights the importance of watching key levels like the 50 SMA for potential resistance or support.

05:02

📊 Economic Data and Earnings Preview

The script outlines the economic data releases for the upcoming week, emphasizing the importance of services and manufacturing PMIs, GDP, and the PCE index as key market movers. It also previews the earnings reports for major companies like Google, Tesla, and others, which could set the tone for the tech sector. Additionally, it touches on seasonality trends, suggesting caution in August due to historical market weakness.

10:03

💡 Trade Setups for the Week

Alex presents three trade setups for the week, starting with the iWM, focusing on the potential for a bounce from the 9 EMA cloud. He then discusses AMD as a riskier play, considering the 200 SMA support and the need to reclaim certain resistance levels. Lastly, he talks about CELH, a discounted support play with a focus on the 49-48 price zone, suggesting a potential bounce before earnings and recommending September expiration for better risk management.

15:03

📉 Analysis of Market Levels and Fibonacci Retracement

This paragraph delves into a detailed analysis of market levels, particularly for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ). It discusses the importance of holding certain trend lines and price levels, such as the 550 level for SPY and the 476 support for QQQ. The use of Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential resistance and support areas is highlighted, with a focus on the 61.8% level as a key bounce zone.

20:04

📈 Market Trend Analysis and Key Support/Resistance Levels

The script continues with an in-depth look at the market trends, emphasizing the significance of closing prices above the 921 EMA cloud for maintaining uptrends and the importance of support levels like 486 for QQQ. It also discusses the potential for a short-term bounce and the necessity for the VIX to cooperate for a market rebound, outlining the levels on the 15-minute timeframe that traders should watch.

25:06

📊 VIX Analysis and Market Implications

The final paragraph focuses on the VIX, examining its levels and their impact on market trends. It identifies key resistance levels that, if breached, could signal further market pullbacks. The importance of the VIX closing below certain levels, such as 16 and 1540, for a potential market bounce is highlighted. The paragraph concludes with a discussion on the potential for a spike in the VIX and its implications for market direction.

🌐 xtrades Application Promotion

The video concludes with a promotional segment for the xtrades application, which is described as the fastest-growing platform for sharing financial ideas. It mentions the significant payouts to contributors and invites viewers to join the platform to connect with top traders, share ideas, and grow their reputation in the trading community.

Keywords

💡Trade Ideas

Trade ideas refer to suggestions or strategies for buying or selling financial instruments, such as stocks or options, based on market analysis. In the video, Alex from xtrades shares a weekly list of trade ideas, which is central to the theme of providing viewers with potential investment opportunities. Examples include calls on U and Nike, which are specific trade ideas discussed in the script.

💡Pullback

A pullback in financial markets refers to a decline in prices after a period of increase. It is a temporary reversal of a bullish trend. In the context of the video, Alex mentions a 'big pullback', indicating a significant drop in market prices, particularly in tech names, which is a key event impacting the trade ideas presented.

💡Volatility

Volatility is a measure of the magnitude of price changes in a security or index over time. High volatility implies larger price swings. The script discusses 'pre-election volatility', which is a period of increased market fluctuations due to the uncertainty surrounding election outcomes, affecting trade strategies and outcomes.

💡50 SMA

50 SMA stands for 50-day Simple Moving Average, a technical indicator that shows the average price of a security over the last 50 days. It is used to identify trends in the market. In the video, Alex mentions U calls 'rejection off the 50 SMA', indicating a point where the price failed to rise above this average, which is a critical moment in trade analysis.

💡Channel Line

A channel line in technical analysis refers to a line that forms part of a price channel, which is a trendline that can indicate the direction of a price move. In the script, Alex discusses how a security 'broke out a channel' and then 'fell back within the channel', illustrating the use of channel lines to assess entry and exit points in trades.

💡Key Level

A key level in trading is a price point that has significant historical importance and can act as a support or resistance level. In the video, the 'key level' of 74 for Nike is highlighted as a critical price point to watch, as it has been a strong resistance level in the past.

💡Trump Drama

The term 'Trump Drama' in the script refers to the political events or controversies involving former President Donald Trump, which can influence market sentiment and trade decisions. Alex mentions this in the context of trade tensions and potential tariffs, which can affect the performance of 'China names' in the market.

💡Earnings

Earnings in the context of finance refer to the profits that a company has made during a specific period. Earnings reports are significant events for publicly traded companies and can greatly affect their stock prices. The script mentions earnings dates for companies like AMD and CLH, which are crucial times for traders to consider when making decisions.

💡Fibonacci

Fibonacci retracement is a technical analysis tool used to predict potential support and resistance levels in the price movement of a security. It is based on the Fibonacci sequence. In the video, Alex uses the '61.8% Fibonacci' as a key level for potential bounce plays, demonstrating its importance in identifying entry and exit points in trading.

💡EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, is a type of moving average that places greater weight on more recent prices. It is used to identify trends and is more responsive to price changes than a simple moving average. Alex discusses the '921 EMA' as a significant trend indicator, noting how it can act as a resistance point or help determine the health of an uptrend.

💡Scalp

Scalping in trading refers to making a large number of trades to profit from small price movements. It is a short-term strategy that aims to capture small gains quickly. The script mentions 'scalps' and 'scalping' several times, indicating trades that Alex expects to be closed out by the end of the day for small profits.

Highlights

Alex from xtrades discusses weekly trade ideas, noting a volatile market influenced by pre-election factors.

U calls on watch performed well until a significant pullback on Thursday, highlighting the importance of timely profit-taking.

Nike calls on watch ended the week unchanged, with a key level of 74 identified for future movements.

Neo on watch showed a breakout but failed to sustain momentum, suggesting a need for a longer-term perspective.

Trade tensions and potential tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are discussed as factors affecting market movements.

WBA position was closed with significant gains, demonstrating effective trade management.

QQQ call Scout resulted in a 35% loss, but was offset by a 44% gain on spy calls, illustrating the dynamic nature of trading.

iwm 215 puts resulted in a 21% gain, showcasing the potential of short-term trades.

A QQQ put expired without significant impact, highlighting the importance of strategic trade management.

Nike calls are still being held, with a focus on the 9 EMA for potential bounces.

A $300 challenge on Robin Hood account is mentioned, with a Nvidia spread resulting in a 100% return, showcasing small spread plays.

Economic data for the week is discussed, with a focus on services PMI, manufacturing PMI, GDP, and PCE as key market movers.

Tesla and Alphabet earnings are highlighted as significant events that could set the tone for tech stocks.

Seasonality analysis suggests a potential for a choppy market with no clear direction until August.

iwm setup is discussed, focusing on the 9 EMA cloud as a potential bounce area with a target of 220.

AMD is considered a riskier play due to lack of confirmed bounce, with a focus on the 200 SMA and 153.30 levels.

Celh is highlighted as a discounted support play, with a focus on the 48-49 zone for potential bounces.

Spy levels are discussed, with a focus on holding the trend line and reclaiming the 550 level for potential bounces.

QQQ levels are analyzed, with a need to hold above 473.82 and reclaim the trend line for continued uptrend.

VIX levels are crucial for market bounce, with a need to close under 16 and 1540 for a potential market upturn.

Transcripts

what's up everybody this is Alex from

xtrades and welcome back to another

weekly trade ideas list hope everybody

had a wonderful weekend had a good

trading week last week all that good

stuff very insane week politically and

overall for the markets we had a pretty

big pullback lots of pre-election

volatility and especially lots of

downside and Chip names and Tech if you

tuned in last week we had an all right

list I would say it could have been a

little bit better we did have U calls on

watch which actually did really good all

the way up until Thursday I think ran up

pretty good maybe about 8 to 10% and

then randomly just one day had a very

big pullback so you overall did have a

good week until that day and I believe

it did close red on the week overall

probably wiped out all the gains in that

one day but hopefully you took profit if

you took that trade and got out at the

right time we were looking forward to

get up to the 50 SMA at least and it

actually rejected right off that 50 SMA

so not a bad week for you despite that

one big red day hopefully were able to

catch that one we also had Nike calls on

watch which actually ended up being

unchanged basically really didn't go

anywhere past the Friday's close from

last week and it kind of stayed within

range and I'm still in that one right

now I'm in September calls so for Nike

we need to get over 74 that is the key

level make sure to watch that 74 it's

been very strong resistance and overall

it will need to get back over that we

also had Neo on watch which actually

broke out a channel it looked pretty

good Monday first thing it did pull back

very aggressively back tested our

channel line and actually bounced off of

that on Tuesday I believe had a pretty

good run on Tuesday but then the rest of

the week it really slowed down and kind

of fell back within the channel so Neil

really didn't do too much you could

maybe keep that on watch but I really

wouldn't recommend looking at anything

other than very long-term expiration

right now the setup is really not as

clear because last week we had a channel

breakout and now we kind of have it back

with inside of that and with all this

Trump drama we do have China names kind

of pulling back likely just due to trade

tensions and other things so China kind

of catching some heat and as well maybe

some fear from potential tariffs Trump

was talking about raising tariffs maybe

do 100% on Chinese electric vehicles and

other things so that could be why it was

pulling back it also didn't close over

that 50 SMA either so Neo kind of did

find some resistance there and overall

kind of came back down from the one good

Green Day it did have and for trades

last week we did close that WBA position

I had open we had 12.5 calls for

September we closed the first portion at

about 28% and I did hold a remainder up

to 37 % and we did close that out I

think at like the 1190s or something

which thank God because WBA rejected

very aggressively and sold off Thursday

and Friday so we made about 28% on one

portion and 37% on the last portion we

also had a QQQ call Scout ended up

stopping out of that for a 35% loss made

it up the next day with spy calls made

about 44% on that one and we bought at a

qy level I think is about 555 forced spy

and it bounced very aggressively very

quickly before it went back down and we

sold just in the nick of time cuz it did

sell off very aggressively after we sold

so that was the best winner of the week

about 44% on a spy scalp not too bad for

about 10 minutes we also had iwm 215

puts this was about maybe a 3 to two day

swing or something like that I think we

held ended up being red for a little bit

I think we were down like 30 to 40% and

eventually iwm did come back down like I

expected and we closed about 21% on

Friday we actually have iwm on watch

this week but instead of puts I'm going

to be looking at calls at the 9 EMA so

that's why I closed these because we are

reaching that 9 EMA and overall it sold

off very aggressively for a couple days

maybe looking for a dead cat bounce on

that one and this QQQ put it is a very

old trade from about maybe one or two

months ago I took one single contract

for about 900 bucks kept it on as a

hedge overall it did not play out at all

and I just ended up letting it expire it

was down so much I didn't really see a

reason to kind of scrape up the

remainder of what was left so I just

went ahead and left it open just in case

the market pulled back or I needed it so

that did expire bu on Friday but

otherwise we've had a really good run

here we do have these Nike calls as well

I'm stilling these and overall just a

really good run the past month or so we

did have two losses here about 23 24

days ago and overall it's just been

really good lots of green doing well and

hopefully we can keep up the good work

kind of keep losses at a minimum if

possible and yeah hopefully this week's

list is good we'll find some more scalps

on the indexes spy QQ iwm stuff like

that so I also do have a $300 challenge

going on right now on a Robin Hood

account and one play I have opened is a

Nvidia spread it's a call debit spread

I'll put up a screenshot here so you can

see we've turned that $300 into about

$609 so far so about 100% return since

the New Year not too bad I wish it has

grown a little bit more but overall kind

of been taking our time doing very small

spread plays keeping lots of cash on the

side so we're not risking too much and

overall it's been doing pretty good so

hopefully we can get it to a th000

eventually and then take it from there

and if you are interested in these

challenge plays just keep a look out in

the options chat and our Discord there's

no way for me to really alert spreads on

our app here so I've just been posting

them in the options chat so just keep a

lookout maybe search my name and 300

challenge CU I usually put the keyword

300 challenge if it's a challenge play

and you should be able to find a post

you know update if I closed loss gain

entry exit stuff like that and we'll go

ahead and get into the economic data

real quick we do have a pretty stacked

week actually I would say Monday nothing

scheduled Tuesday we do have existing

home sales at 10: a.m. most importantly

is going to be the services PMI and the

manufacturing p I at 9:45 that should

bring mid session volatility about 15

minutes after the Bell Rings for the

open Wednesday we also have new home

sales so we got existing home sales

Tuesday more real estate data on

Wednesday for new home sales and then on

Thursday we do have the GDP coming out

this always has a chance to move the

market it has moved the market past

couple times it came out so definitely

pay attention to that all these others

really don't move the market that much

it's going to be GDP that's going to

move us the most and then on Friday is

going to be the most important data of

the week it's going to be the pce this

is the fed's preferred inflation gauge

over CPI so it's very important that we

continue to see that Trend and inflation

go lower it's very simple inflation down

good inflation up bad and then we also

have consumer sentiment at 10 which can

bring mid session volatility this can

definitely move us pretty well and it

definitely gives you some good scalp

opportunities for big moves in the

indexes so not too bad we got pmis

Tuesday GDP Thursday Friday pce as well

as consumer sentiment pretty stacked

week not too bad we also have Google and

Tesla earnings I believe that's maybe

Tuesday Wednesday yep you can see

Tuesday here Tesla and alphabet right

here also visa and end phase so that

should be interesting we also got

chipotle IBM Ford got a couple decent

ones so Tesla and Google is going to be

kind of the warm-up and it's probably

going to set the tone for all the big

Tech Giants coming up because we have

like Microsoft and Amazon and apple

still that have to report so it's going

to be some big ones coming up with Tesla

and alphabet kind of kicking us off here

and before we get into our setups we'll

go over the seasonality real quick last

week is actually pretty bullish for

seasonality we really didn't follow that

we had a pretty good day on Monday

overall the market did go up on Monday

so we kind of followed the pattern and

then overall we did fall off a cliff big

Tech pull back spy pullback lots of

stuff pull back this week there's not

really anything of substance here for

the 20-year data set from July 22 to 26

you can see we have winning trades at

45% summarized profit actually at -2%

for Longs so nothing really here you can

see it's kind of choppy as well no big

up thrust no big down thrust either it's

right when July ends and into August

when we kind of start seeing that

historic weakness all the way basically

until the first half of August and then

it kind of picks up again and then

September it gets even worse

historically but for this week

specifically nothing really crazy like I

said winning trades 45% not a very good

probability also negative summarized

profit at 2% 10 year is not really that

much different either so the 10 year is

at 50% winning trades to the long side

summarized profit negative 1% with a

very Flatline kind of sequence here for

this week coming up historically so

nothing special for seasonality I don't

really have anything pointing at a big

move up or down not until August comes

along then August you can kind of start

being a little bit more careful just in

case maybe put a hedge on buy spy puts

vix calls something to kind of hedge

your portfolio if you are net long the

market we do enter a period of weakness

right here all right and for setups this

week I do have three for you our first

one here we're looking at iwm which just

had a really killer run from the 11th up

to the 17th or so we actually bought

puts here on Monday I think it was

closer to the high made a really big

push up the next day but overall we did

have this big 78.6% Fibonacci resistance

and it rejected off of that and then

fell back within the channel line so

once it fell back within the channel

line I went ahead and held into Friday

and then Friday fell even more and

that's when we closed for that 20% gain

could have made a little bit more but I

did enter very early and I was wrong on

the first entry here cuz we had this

really big up thrust candle so I could

have gotten screwed but overall I felt

pretty confident with all this buy and

balance B and all these gaps and all

this crazy buy side imbalance they would

probably retrace at least half the

candles and come back down into the 921

EMA cloud or just the 921 EMA in general

and we did do that so now the iwm has

pulled back I do like Longs a little bit

here kind of keep the momentum going

obviously there's been a pretty good

rotation here from Tech into small caps

mid caps financials like XLF Banks stuff

like that and overall I do want to see a

bounce from this 921 EMA Cloud so maybe

it might need to come down just a a

little bit more to tap that but either

way I feel like it's close enough to

start looking for a bounce of the

general area at least and overall it

probably will need to get back outside

the channel so I get rid of all this

this is the kind of channel line we have

going right now test one test two test

three did break out of that fell back

within so that will be an issue probably

about 220 so you got about three points

or so until it Taps 220 and 220 probably

meet with the channel line and maybe act

as a resistance point so you got to be

careful with that but overall it's just

a simple kind of dip by play at the 921

Cloud looking for a balance of this

general area maybe if we can get down

into it or closer into it I would

definitely be willing to buy there but

overall if it does want to bounce on

Monday I'm willing to kind of take a

stab here as well because it's pretty

close to the 921 Cloud here so iwm

looking at calls I don't think I'm going

to enter a swing on it I'm probably just

going to look for like day trades if I

did enter a swing I probably wouldn't

hold it too long cuz we do have like the

Federal Reserve coming up we have PC on

Friday I don't really like holding

through data that much and overall we're

kind of coming into a week time in

August and I think I'd rather wait till

mid time in August to kind of wait for a

dip in that period and then buy that

based off the seasonality at least for

swing trades so that's for iwm looking

at calls definitely watch this 921 EMA

cloud or just the 9 EMA looking for a

bounce there at least up to 220 or so

all right number two on to AMD so this

is actually a little bit riskier of a

play because we don't have like a

confirmed candle showing us it's going

to bounce yet or it has bounced we're

kind of just speculating that this 200

SMA could hold we'll probably need to

reclaim this 150 330s which is this

right here get rid of the volume real

quick so it's a little bit cleaner so

this 153s 30s this is kind of a previous

double bottom support we probably need

to get back over that Max you could

project up to maybe like the 50 SMA

which is right here or the 921 cloud or

the 921 EMA cuz if you start testing

those EMAs they can act as resistance

points so you got to be careful with

that so AMD is more of a dead CAD bounce

type of play something quick I

definitely wouldn't be loading AMD for

you know earnings or anything like that

it's going to be twoo on the 30th so

this is going to be strictly like day

trades scalps looking for a dead cap

bounce and kind of sticking to intraday

plays getting out by the end of the day

so that's for AMD very simple 200 SMA

support you got support 153s they will

need to get back over that so if you get

that reclaim back over 153s you could

definitely take a stab maybe we can

retrace these big red candles eventually

they probably will want to fill those

back up just a little bit at least up to

the moving averages once they test those

they'll probably try to reject off of

that area go back lower Etc so that's

for AMD looking at Short short-term

calls scalps day trades all that good

stuff all right and last but not least

we go over celh it's going to be Celsius

one of my favorite energy drinks so this

is a very simple kind of discounted

support play we've been selling for two

months now we're now into a major 49 40s

to 4811 zone so you got the 48s at these

lows right here and 4940 is at this low

right here where I started this

Fibonacci retracement you can see this

61.8% play was amazing so if you guys

have been watching my videos for a while

you know the 61.8% plays are pretty good

in my eyes they're good for rejections

good for bounce plays and this is proof

of that so the 61.8 is also called the

Golden Ratio definitely go check out

Fibonacci how to draw them it's very

simple just pick a high and a low and

you measure it out but anyways now into

that 49 40s to 48s kind of Zone here

it's very simple I'm looking for a dead

cap bounce on this for Price targets you

can kind of only go off the 921 Cloud so

if you get price kind of going back up

into that it might try to reject that

you got to be careful and you really

only have till August 8th before

earnings so I'm not sure how I feel

about this for a swing trade but if I

did enter a swing trade I would be out

before earnings and I would definitely

buy September expiration minimum cuz not

only are you dealing with a countdown

into earnings and having to gamble on

earnings you also have the 921 cloud in

the way that has essentially been acting

as lower highs and rejection points got

a rejection here you got a rejection

right here and I feel like that

September expiration will help you deal

with any any rejection risk or any draw

down risk if it gets back up into that

but overall I feel like this could be a

good bounce play and you do have room up

to you know like 53 54 upper 56s before

you start testing that 921 cloud and you

have very strong support at the 48s like

I said so you got moving averages

working against you you are turning

below them and that comes with risk but

that is kind of part of buying value

areas and looking for discounts you will

have to buy below the moving averages

just how it works and it's very simple

risk off would be under 48 flat if it

breaks 48 flat you might have a little

bit more downside it looks like there's

a little low right here as well at about

45 right here so so you got 45 below 48

that is a low right here but overall the

zone is 48 to 49 46 so this bounce zone

and this bounce zone right here so

that's for clh looking at calls probably

going to be looking at day trades on it

but like I said if you do want to enter

a swing you got up till the 8th before

earnings and you'll want to get

September expiration to deal with any

moving average risk any ction risk once

it gets back up to that cloud all right

on to the indexes so last week we were

looking at spy and we had to go down to

the 15minute time frame cuz it was such

a tight range here is Friday's close we

had this 227% FIB as a potential

resistance area we also had

56230 which is also this right here we

had 560 which is a support area right

here from Friday and then we also had

the 555s which is that 200% so we

actually went under the 555s but we'll

go over these real quick so so Monday we

actually held up that 560 I mentioned

you could probably start looking for

Longs if this 560 held up which we did

on Monday pretty well and the max upside

I could project was obviously just 563

cuz there's no way I can project a new

all-time high or anything like that I

have to see how it reacts once it gets

up there so we really did kind of have a

stall out actually we put in one new

high it fell back within we came back

down into 560 again really big push-up

candle here push back up to 5 63s

rejected off it again so overall it did

respect the levels pretty well even have

a bounce off 562 right here which is a

back test over here another bounce off

562 right here on this candle back test

so it respected it pretty well we G down

on Wednesday it actually tested 560 but

acted as resistance instead of support

So rejected off that 560 which came from

this right here and it fell down some

more and then here is Thursday so that

spy 44% scalp that I showed you on the X

trades app we bought right here at the

555s so this big candle right here is

where we made that 40% Scout so we

bought it like 1040 I think and I think

we sold I'd have to check yeah 1041 and

sold at 1054 but that was off that 555

200% Fibonacci that we've had for the

past couple weeks that was a key level

to look for dip buys at so here was

right here we pulled in 1040 right here

so we bought at 1041 and we sold about

1054 so we sold up here and it rejected

very aggressively after that so we got

in and out at the perfect time luckily

made about 40% on that so there was a

lot of different things things that you

could use these levels for you could use

them for support uh resistance areas old

support as new resistance also bought

off of that right there you could also

play this as a flush level so once 555s

broke really nice downside bounced back

up kind of took the 555s as a new

resistance level fell some more and then

we had another level below that at 550

so I mentioned actually a while ago this

is probably two weeks ago I mentioned

this is a really good value area to

start looking for dip buys at 550 so

this is a old res area potential back

test area and I think when we were all

the way up here I mentioned this is

probably the best area to wait for to

look for dip buys obviously and then we

started making new structures up here so

we're able to get some new levels but

overall this still did kind of have a

short-term bounce so here's that 550

level on Thursday again really nice

bounce off of that could have scaled off

of that as well so there's lots of ways

you can use these levels but now that

we're kind of starting to expand

volatility a little bit more we don't

have to look at the 15-minute time frame

strictly for levels and stuff we do have

some new stuff here so we have a old

kind of trend line all the way from

April test one test two test three we

want to see spy holding this up right

here so you want to see this trend line

holding I can even get rid of all this

crap for you so we'll draw it like this

Start From Here point two test one test

two test three test four needs to hold

up here now it is very key to get back

over 550 just this old back test era old

resistance area we have to get back over

that if we get back over 550 we can

retrace these red candles right here one

issue we do have we're starting to close

under the 921 EMA combo so we're closed

under the cloud it closed back over the

550 could get you back within the cloud

back within the 921 Trend we need to do

that kind of like this back here we

closed under it we need to get back on a

big candle like this something

reclaiming getting back in the trend and

then we can continue it up so that's the

only issue we are closing under the 921

combo and like I said we do have this

old trend line here and also a crucial

550 back test area we need to get back

over as well so that is key we need to

hold this trend line we need to get back

over 550 and we need to get back over

the 921 Cloud so this is a pretty good

area to look for dip buys if we get back

over 550 and then maybe we can see a

little shortterm kind of dead cat bounce

so that's what I got for you on spy this

week very crucial trend line with a very

crucial 550 level that we need to get

back over I know this looks messy but

it's really not that bad once you zoom

into the 15-minute time frame you'll

definitely want to keep these Fibonacci

areas as well especially these

extensions if you wanted to get rid of

all this you could even just do the

extensions so we get rid of this this

this and now we just have the extensions

you got the 1.27 two 1.618 200 227 so

that's really it guys spy needs to hold

up this trend line if we do start

falling back under the trend obviously

it can project down to you know 543 is

at the 1.618 and that's really about it

I had to see what it does from there and

maybe I could project lower after that

but really there's only this little Gap

below it's really not that big so I

don't really see an urgency to get down

there just yet and a spy bounce will

require vix to qu operate as well and

we'll go over that later after we get

over QQQ but pretty key trend line need

to get back over 550 also need to

reclaim your 921 Cloud looking like a

decent discount area all right not to

QQQ so last week we had 50350 we had

49962 which is the Friday High we had

4957 which is this pivot from Friday and

we also had 490 so here is first thing

Monday I mentioned at 495 held and we

kind of bounced off of that you can look

for Longs on that worked out pretty good

ran all the way up to the $499 as you'd

expect from a pretty wide range like

this you got 499 to 495 you know about

four points wide basically respected

that perfectly kind of broke over it a

little bit but once it fell back within

you can see it ran all the way back down

to the 495 again bounced off of that

kind of bounced off it again right here

and overall just respected it pretty

well at least until here on Wednesday

when we gapped down so we gapped all the

way down into 486 486 is a very old

resistance and back test area well it's

not that old it's a June late June

triple top res right here so I mentioned

probably a couple weeks ago this is a

good area to look for dip buys look for

a back test we did not respect that at

all so our chance to kind of Bounce from

that 486 or back test was here on

Wednesday but you could see really

didn't get any push or any kind of

urgency to fill this Gap or anything

like that we had a big breakdown candle

here shortterm bounce and overall stayed

under 486 the whole time we didn't get a

single close over 486 nothing indicating

that it would continue and try to bounce

so when you're trying to buy the dip and

and look for continuation it's very

important that price closes over a q

level especially like 486 as a back test

you need price closing over that to

continue the next day we did not get

that on Wednesday so what did we do on

Thursday we dump some more we had a 476

support area which actually respected it

pretty well you can see it bounced from

it right here kind of bounc from it

right here that

47626 comes from all the way over here

so we can go down to the 1 hour so you

can see it a little bit better so here's

the

47626 right here here and then here's

473 82 structure low right here here is

our

48684 this is a potential back test area

that we wanted to see a bounce we did

not get that and then here's all our

levels from the previous week that we

went over as well so we're in a

completely new realm here we're at new

levels we're not even close to last

week's levels so that requires starting

to look at new things overall QQQ will

need to hold this 473 82 we also need to

get back over this trend line so this

trend line is a one-day trend line same

thing as spy it's very old kind of all

the way from April test one test two

test three we are briefly under that but

the fact that we're not under 473 82

which is the structure low yet means

we're kind of still within the range and

we're kind of safe for the most part we

also had a crucial close under the 921

Cloud here on Wednesday and that set us

up for that two days of red Thursday and

Friday so it's kind of the first close

under the 921 combo in a little bit we

had a brief fake out right here back in

May 2024 we kind of broke it right here

but we closed back within it that was

the important part to keep the trend

going and overall we really haven't seen

like a big downside structure or

sequence like this since this right here

and that's when we lost the 921 combo

right here so closing and holding the

921 combo is very important on the one

day for an uptrend same thing for a

downtrends you want to see it keep

closing under the 921 combo rejecting

off the 921 combo Etc that is your short

to medium-term Trend gauge using a 921

EMA combo so the key for QQQ is very

simple you want to see it getting back

over 476 26 also getting back over the

trend line closing back over it that's

the important thing you can see on the 1

hour here that probably require you know

479 480 to get back over this trend line

uh comfortably and really to continue

any a downside it would need to get

under 473 82 which is a very strong

support old structure area so you could

look at scalps at the 473 82 very

shortterm scalps cuz obviously if it

gets back up to trend line and back test

it it could reject off of it for a real

upside move you want to see it closing

back over the trend line you want to see

it getting over this it's very important

so very critical Zone here we're briefly

under the trend line but we're still

over support so wait for a signal if you

must scalp off 473 is maybe and I

believe the Futures are actually up

pretty good the NASDAQ futures es I

believe they're up pretty nicely right

now so overall they are holding up not

really breaking down even after the

Biden news came out that he was stepping

down price is doing okay for the moment

obviously Futures they can change

instantly overnight while you're asleep

so we'll have to see how the open looks

but overall you got spy holding trend

still you got QQQ at least above support

but briefly under Trend both are under

their 921 em combo that is an issue and

you also have vix very elevated so

that's why we're going to go into vix

next it's very important that we get

under some of these key levels but

overall both are still kind of within

structures like I said QQQ support at

least even though it's under Trend spy

is still over Trend and doing pretty

good and could see a bounce from that

but it is very dependent on the vix

which we go into right now so what we

were kind of warning about finally came

into fruition with these 1237 to 1182

lows holding up I mentioned that people

were still hedging at least the last 3

weeks because every time we get to this

1182 or 1237 we were seeing Vick Spike

back up and the fact that it wasn't able

to break the 1182 or get back under that

kind of had me skeptical that people

were hedging for a reason and that could

result in a pullback in the market I did

also mention your magic numbers for vix

to close back over to see a pullback in

the market was 1367 and 14 so we did

close over that on Wednesday and that

really set us up for that downside

Thursday and Friday just that one simple

close over that 1367 and 14 area really

set us up for that big spike in the vix

and big pullback in the market it also

closed back over 1540 which is a

multi-top rejection area back all the

way from New Year all the way until

March got a rejection rejection so on so

forth multiple rejections of 1540 we

also had rejections at 1604 so rejection

Point here rejection Point here and and

a rejection point right here so that's

why I have 1540 and 16 Mark as well and

we ended up closing 1651 on Friday this

big wick was a glitch that was not a

real vix move could have been from the

crowd strike that big Tech

outage we had you can see vix really

kind of glitched out and tweaked out

here I really wish they would get rid of

that and fix it make it go void so this

ugly candle wasn't here cuz it's really

throwing me off but anyways key thing

for vix this week if you want to see spy

bounce and bounce off that Trend see Q

reclaim his Trend we need to see vix

falling back back under 16 it's very

simple another key level you want to

falling back under 1540 so we want to

see it closing under 16 and closing

under 1540 and I've showed you in the

past as well if you keep up with every

single week's videosos closing back

under these is key for when it gets back

elevated if you want to see a bounce in

the market likewise back here we want to

see a closing back under 1367 to start

bouncing that's why you see this fall

back under 1367 another rejection 1367

likewise back here we got a little bit

elevated but once we started closing

back on under 16 right here we had a

really big fall as well as closing back

under the 1794 this big candle set us up

for the move back lower and this is a

really big bounce in the market this

whole sequence so that's why we want to

see a closing back under 16 otherwise

there's a lot of free space here so

that's kind of a worry if the vix does

want to spike and keep going higher

obviously Max upside I can project right

now it's going to be 1794 big spike area

right here we it rejected so if we got

up to there we could definitely reject

off of that 1794 at that spot so that's

a plus so vix does go higher here at

least it can reject here you can maybe

look for a dip buy once the vix reaches

this 1794 to 18 area now if it starts

closing back over 18 obviously that's a

free shot up to the 20s we can even mark

this for the future just in case 2136 is

kind of the peak so that's really all I

got for you this week uh vix needs to

close back under 16 and also 1540 it's

going to be key for a bounce in the

market next week if you wanted to wait F

vix to do that close back under that

before going long that could be smart

cuz we're kind of just waiting to see if

it bounces off the trend if Kik is going

to hold up support and reclaim Trend and

overall for them to do that it may

require that move under 16 and 1540 on

the vix and then we want to see him

closing back under that so closing back

under major levels to fall back to Major

lows it's very simple so hope you guys

enjoyed this video make sure you like

comment and subscribe Mark these vix

levels if you must 1182 1237 1367 1540

1604 1794 and 2136 so I love you guys

make sure you like comment and subscribe

I'm going go ahe and get this chopped up

sent out all that good stuff so I'm not

up super late I love you and I'm out

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