TSLA 发布AI Roadmap! FSD进展如何? Snowflake财报分析!【美股分析】

老汤美股财经
8 Sept 202414:09

Summary

TLDRIn this video, host Lao Tang discusses Tesla's recently released AI Roadmap, detailing advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, including the v12.5.2 update and the 'Actually Smart Summon' feature. Despite delays, the roadmap signals Tesla's commitment to AI. Lao Tang also addresses Snowflake's financial report, highlighting a dip in stock prices due to data breaches and Warren Buffett's sell-off, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for investors. The video concludes with an update on Lao Tang's public investment accounts and an invitation to join his membership for more in-depth stock insights.

Takeaways

  • 🚀 Tesla's AI roadmap was released, detailing advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, including improved reliability and new features like 'Actually Smart Summon'.
  • 📉 Tesla's stock price was affected by the AI roadmap release and the delay in the FSD launch timeline, despite the company's ongoing business model transformation.
  • 🔄 Tesla's AI roadmap is segmented into phases: September 2024 with v12.5.2 FSD release, October 2024 with FSD V13, and Q1 2025 for the European and Chinese FSD launch.
  • 🤖 The AI3 computer and unified model supporting both AI3 and AI4 hardware platforms indicate Tesla's focus on software and hardware integration for autonomous driving.
  • 🛑 Tesla's 'Actually Smart Summon' (ASS) and 'Dumb Summon' features enhance vehicle control and positioning, reflecting the company's commitment to improving user experience.
  • 🚗 The Cybertruck is set to receive its first FSD feature, Autopark, in September 2024, showcasing Tesla's dedication to expanding its autonomous vehicle offerings.
  • 📈 Snowflake's Q2 revenue exceeded expectations, but the stock price continued to decline due to various challenges, including data breaches and investor sentiment.
  • 💼 The departure of Snowflake's CEO and the清仓 of shares by Warren Buffett have raised concerns among investors, impacting the company's market perception.
  • 📊 Snowflake's financial performance, including revenue growth and EPS, is overshadowed by operational challenges and a slowdown in growth, contributing to the stock's underperformance.
  • 💡 The presenter suggests a cautious approach towards investing in Tesla and Snowflake, recommending to wait for better entry points or signs of stability before considering new investments.

Q & A

  • What is the significance of Tesla's AI Roadmap for investors?

    -Tesla's AI Roadmap is significant for investors as it provides a clear timeline and expectations for the development and deployment of Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, which are crucial for Tesla's future growth and market perception.

  • What changes did Tesla announce for its FSD in September 2024?

    -In September 2024, Tesla announced the release of v12.5.2 version of FSD, which improves the vehicle's autonomous driving distance by about 3 times, operates on AI3 computers with a unified model compatible with AI3 and AI4, and introduced 'Actually Smart Summon' and 'Dumb Summon' features.

  • How does the 'Actually Smart Summon' feature work?

    -The 'Actually Smart Summon' feature allows Tesla vehicle owners to summon their cars from parking spots to a specific nearby location, enabling a scenario where the car comes to pick up the owner right outside a store.

  • What is the difference between 'Actually Smart Summon' and 'Dumb Summon'?

    -The 'Actually Smart Summon' feature allows for the vehicle to be summoned to a specific location with more advanced autonomous capabilities, while 'Dumb Summon' is a more basic feature that allows the vehicle to be controlled to move forward or backward for minor adjustments in position.

  • What is the anticipated impact of Tesla's FSD V13 version on the driving experience?

    -The FSD V13 version is expected to significantly enhance the driving experience by adding functionalities like parking, unparking, and reversing, and by increasing the distance between necessary interventions by about 6 times.

  • Why did the speaker suggest not to chase Tesla's stock after the AI Roadmap announcement?

    -The speaker suggested not to chase Tesla's stock after the AI Roadmap announcement because the stock price increase was driven by market speculation, and such increases can be volatile and prone to reversal, as seen with the subsequent drop in Tesla's stock price.

  • What recent incident involving Snowflake raised concerns among investors?

    -Snowflake faced a data breach incident in May where customer data was stolen, including sensitive information from companies like Live Nation and AT&T, due to inadequate security settings and lack of multi-factor authentication.

  • How did Warren Buffett's actions affect Snowflake's stock?

    -Warren Buffett清仓了Snowflake的股票,这发生在一些不利事件之后,这可能会损害股票的情绪面,因为许多投资者是因为巴菲特而买入Snowflake的,他的清仓可能会让投资者怀疑Snowflake的基本面是否变差了。

  • What is the speaker's strategy for investing in Snowflake given its recent performance?

    -The speaker suggests waiting for Snowflake to stabilize before considering an investment, as the stock has been volatile and influenced by multiple negative events, making it a risky 'falling knife' to catch.

  • What is the speaker's approach to managing his investment accounts during market downturns?

    -The speaker's approach is to continue with regular investments like his M1 account and wait for key support levels in the market, such as the 200-day or 250-day moving averages, to make additional investments or increase positions.

  • What is the benefit of using Interactive Brokers (IBKR) as mentioned in the script?

    -Interactive Brokers (IBKR) offers the benefit of earning a high interest rate on cash, trading fractional shares, and setting up automatic investments, which can make investing more flexible and easier for both U.S. and international clients.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Tesla's AI Roadmap and Recent Developments

The video discusses Tesla's recent AI Roadmap and its implications. Tesla has pushed back the Full Self-Driving (FSD) launch in Europe and China to early 2025, which was initially planned for late 2024. The roadmap is divided into three phases: September 2024, October 2024, and Q1 2025. In September, Tesla is set to release the v12.5.2 FSD version, enhancing vehicle autonomy and introducing features like 'Actually Smart Summon' and 'Dumb Summon'. The AI3 computer will support a unified model for both AI3 and AI4 hardware. The October update will bring FSD V13 with advanced capabilities like automatic parking, and the plan for China and Europe's FSD is set for Q1 2025, pending regulatory approval. The video also touches on Tesla's business model transformation towards energy, AI, and robotics.

05:00

📉 Analyzing Snowflake's Q2 Earnings and Market Sentiment

The video analyzes Snowflake's second-quarter earnings, which showed a 29% year-over-year revenue growth to $868 million, exceeding expectations. Despite beating on revenue and Non-GAAP EPS, the stock price continued to decline due to various issues affecting market sentiment. These include a data breach affecting major clients,巴菲特's decision to sell off his stake, and a CEO change that created uncertainty. The video also mentions that Snowflake's EPS is expected to decline by 38%, indicating a challenging year ahead. The presenter advises caution, suggesting that it might be wise to wait for the stock to stabilize before considering an investment.

10:02

📈 Investment Strategies and Portfolio Updates

The presenter shares insights on investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of buying at a safe margin. They discuss the recent market downturn and the opportunity it presents for investors. Mentioning their own investment accounts, the presenter details their approach to index funds and tech stocks, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for Snowflake. They also promote a membership program offering educational benefits for stock market enthusiasts and invite viewers to join their community for further discussions.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Tesla

Tesla is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that designs, manufactures, and sells electric cars, solar energy generation systems, and energy storage products. In the video, Tesla is a central topic as the speaker discusses its AI Roadmap, which outlines the company's short-term plans for advancing its Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities. The roadmap includes updates to FSD software versions, improvements in autonomous driving reliability, and new features like 'Actually Smart Summon' (ASS), highlighting Tesla's ongoing innovation in the field of autonomous driving.

💡Snowflake

Snowflake is a cloud-based data warehousing company that enables organizations to consolidate data into a single cloud-based repository for improved data accessibility and business intelligence. The script mentions Snowflake's recent financial report, which despite showing revenue growth, has not been well-received by the market due to various concerns like data breaches, CEO changes, and slower growth in revenue and EPS. These factors contribute to the decline in Snowflake's stock price, illustrating the company's current challenges in maintaining investor confidence.

💡AI Roadmap

The AI Roadmap refers to Tesla's strategic plan for the development and deployment of artificial intelligence technologies, particularly in the context of its autonomous driving systems. The video highlights the roadmap's importance for investors as it provides a timeline for the release of new FSD features and improvements. For instance, the roadmap includes the release of FSD v12.5.2, which is expected to significantly enhance the autonomous driving capabilities of Tesla vehicles without the need for driver intervention.

💡FSD (Full Self-Driving)

Full Self-Driving (FSD) is a feature offered by Tesla that aims to enable fully autonomous driving capabilities in its electric vehicles. The video discusses Tesla's plans to roll out FSD in Europe and China by early 2025, which is a delay from the previously stated timeline. The script also mentions specific FSD software versions and their expected improvements, such as increased driving distances without intervention and the integration of driving on highways into a single neural network system.

💡ASS (Actually Smart Summon)

Actually Smart Summon is a feature mentioned in the video as part of Tesla's AI Roadmap. It is an upgraded version of the Summon feature that allows Tesla vehicles to autonomously navigate from a parking spot to a specific location near the owner, such as the entrance of a store. This feature exemplifies Tesla's progress in enhancing the convenience and autonomy of its vehicles, although it is still subject to refinement and improvement.

💡Cybertruck

The Cybertruck is an electric pickup truck designed by Tesla, known for its unique design and stainless steel exoskeleton. In the context of the video, the Cybertruck is highlighted as it is set to receive its first FSD feature, the Autopark function, which allows the vehicle to park itself without driver intervention. This feature is part of Tesla's broader strategy to integrate advanced autonomous driving capabilities into its vehicle lineup.

💡IBKR (Interactive Brokers)

Interactive Brokers, referred to as IBKR in the video, is a brokerage firm that offers trading services and is known for its low-cost structure and access to a wide range of investment products. The video mentions IBKR as a platform where viewers can open accounts to trade fractional shares and earn high interest on cash balances, suggesting it as an alternative investment option for those interested in diversifying their portfolios.

💡GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)

GAAP refers to the standard framework of guidelines for financial accounting used in the United States. The video discusses Snowflake's financial results in terms of GAAP losses, which have reportedly increased, indicating that the company is not yet profitable on a GAAP basis. This is contrasted with Non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain non-cash items and are often used by companies to present a more favorable view of their financial performance.

💡EPS (Earnings Per Share)

Earnings Per Share (EPS) is a financial metric that represents a company's profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. The video script mentions that Snowflake's EPS is expected to decline, which is a concern for investors as it indicates a potential decrease in the company's profitability. This decline in EPS is one of the factors contributing to the negative sentiment around Snowflake's stock.

💡MFA (Multi-Factor Authentication)

Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA) is a security system that requires users to provide two or more verification factors to gain access to a resource. In the context of the video, the lack of MFA is highlighted as a contributing factor to the data breach at Snowflake, where customer data was compromised due to the use of unencrypted usernames and passwords. This incident underscores the importance of robust security measures in protecting sensitive data.

💡Drama

In the video, 'drama' refers to a series of negative events or controversies that have impacted Snowflake's reputation and investor sentiment. These include the data breach incident and the sudden replacement of the company's CEO. The term is used to describe situations that have created uncertainty and concern among stakeholders, leading to a decline in the company's stock price and a negative perception in the market.

Highlights

Tesla recently released a short-term AI Roadmap, which is a significant development for investors.

The roadmap includes plans to launch Full Self-Driving (FSD) in Europe and China by early 2025, which is a delay from the previous estimate of late 2024.

In September 2024, Tesla aims to release FSD v12.5.2, enhancing the vehicle's autonomous driving capabilities without human intervention.

The AI3 computer system will support a unified model compatible with both AI3 and AI4 hardware, streamlining development across platforms.

Tesla is introducing 'Actually Smart Summon' (ASS) to improve the vehicle summoning feature, allowing vehicles to be summoned to specific locations.

Cybertruck will receive its first FSD feature, Autopark, in September, marking a significant step for the model.

Eye-tracking functionality will be enhanced to work even when the driver is wearing sunglasses, improving driver monitoring for autopilot usage.

Tesla plans to implement an end-to-end network on highways in September, integrating different driving environments into a single neural network system.

FSD V13 is expected in October 2024, promising a comprehensive upgrade with new features like parking, canceling parking, and reversing.

Tesla's AI Roadmap indicates a business model shift towards energy, AI, and robotics, similar to Apple's and Amazon's transformations.

Snowflake's Q2 revenue was $868 million, a 29% year-over-year growth, exceeding Wall Street estimates.

Despite beating on revenue and EPS, Snowflake's non-GAAP operating profit guidance remained unchanged, hinting at increased spending.

Snowflake experienced a data breach affecting major clients like Live Nation and AT&T, raising concerns about security measures.

Warren Buffett's清仓 of Snowflake shares post-drama has negatively impacted investor sentiment.

Snowflake's CEO change and slower progress in AI compared to competitors have contributed to the stock's underperformance.

The speaker suggests waiting for a more stable market sentiment before considering investing in Snowflake.

The speaker's public account has been making strategic investments, with a current value of $128,654 in the M1 account.

The speaker offers a membership for a monthly fee of $2.99, providing access to exclusive stock market knowledge and benefits.

Transcripts

play00:01

Hello大家好,我是老湯

play00:03

今天要講到的兩個主角分別是特斯拉和Snowflake

play00:06

因為特斯拉最近發布了短期AI Roadmap

play00:09

所以我們今天就來解讀一下Roadmap里的內容,以及順便講講我對特斯拉的最新計劃

play00:14

同時我們也會分析下Snowflake的最新財報

play00:17

看看他們過去半年為何一直跌跌不休?和股價為何在財報後繼續下跌了?

play00:22

最後我們也會看下我們公開賬戶的最新情況

play00:25

好,那廢話不多說,我們開始吧

play00:28

那我們就先從特斯拉開始講起

play00:32

特斯拉的股價在這周四被拉起來了是因為有一個利好

play00:36

那就特斯拉表示:“2025年初會在歐洲和中國推出FSD。”

play00:40

然而要注意的是,馬斯克曾在7月表示過:“預計會在2024年年底在歐洲和中國推出FSD”

play00:47

所以實際上,推出日期往後移了

play00:50

不過,重申推出時間也確實能夠給人一種真的會獲得監管批准的感覺

play00:55

同時,這周特斯拉也發布了短期的AI Roadmap

play00:58

這是市場期待已久的

play01:00

因為特斯拉的AI故事一直以來都是一塊大餅

play01:03

缺乏短期進度的公開和展望

play01:05

換句話就是,投資人不清楚特斯拉的FSD進度到底到哪了?

play01:10

或者下一步會怎麼樣?

play01:12

因此這一次公司發布短期AI Roadmap對股票的情緒面肯定是有幫助的

play01:17

市場也就藉機在周四炒了一下股價

play01:19

至於這次發布的AI Roadmap里的細節

play01:22

特斯拉把時間分為3段

play01:24

它們分別是2024年9月,2024年10月,和2025年第一季度

play01:29

那我們就先來說說今年9月的

play01:31

首先,在9月特斯拉推出的v12.5.2版本的FSD,能夠讓車輛在不需要人工干預的情況下可以行駛的距離相比之前提高了約3倍

play01:42

也就是說,FSD變得更加可靠,減少了駕駛員需要接管車輛的頻率

play01:47

此外,v12.5.2 版本系統運行在 AI3 計算機上

play01:51

並且使用了一個統一的模型

play01:53

這個模型可以同時支持 AI3 和 AI4 計算機

play01:57

沒錯,特斯拉在這一版本中使用了一個適用於不同計算機硬件平台(AI3 和 AI4)的單一模型

play02:03

使得系統可以在這兩種硬件上運行,不需要為每種硬件分別開發不同的模型

play02:08

另外,在9月特斯拉在經歷多年延遲后終於推出了 “真正智能召喚” 功能,Actually Smart Summon,簡稱ASS

play02:17

同時還發布了另一個名為 “愚蠢召喚” Dumb Summon 的功能

play02:21

所謂的 “真正智能召喚” 其實就是允許車主將他們的車輛從停車位召喚到附近的特定位置

play02:28

實現真正的走出商店門口就可以等你的車來接你的場景

play02:32

換句話就是,特斯拉大幅升級了召喚功能的性能

play02:36

而另一個 “愚蠢召喚” 功能則允許你在車外控制車輛前進或後退,來調整車子的最終位置

play02:43

目前ASS測評出來的效果也還不錯

play02:46

當然了,它仍然有一些小問題和瑕疵

play02:49

但比之前老版的召喚功能提升了不少

play02:51

接着,特斯拉Cybertruck將迎來其首個FSD的功能

play02:55

那就是自動泊車功能Autopark

play02:58

其實馬斯克在早些時候曾承諾

play03:00

隨着FSD v12.5版本的發布,FSD將在6月時推送給Cybertruck

play03:05

但該時間現在改到了9月份

play03:07

因此馬斯克實際上又日常遲到了

play03:10

此外,在Roadmap里

play03:11

特斯拉提到在今年9月,車裡的眼動追蹤功能可以在用戶佩戴太陽鏡的情況下使用

play03:17

也就是之前的系統在司機佩戴太陽鏡時無法正確追蹤眼睛的移動

play03:22

但隨着特斯拉AI團隊的最新改進,這項技術得到了提升

play03:26

而所謂的眼動追蹤是為了確保駕駛員在使用自動駕駛功能時保持注意力

play03:32

因此這一更新的主要目的是為了提高對駕駛員監控的準確性

play03:37

最後,在9月份將實現高速公路上的端到端網絡

play03:41

也就是將自動駕駛技術在高速公路上的應用進行全面升級

play03:45

簡而言之就是,特斯拉以前的自動駕駛軟件把高速和城市街道分別處理

play03:50

但端到端網絡把這些不同的駕駛環境整合到一個單一的神經網絡系統中

play03:56

這樣一來,在高速上的自動駕駛體驗將會變得更平穩,更自然,和更智能

play04:01

接着,Roadmap來到了今年10月份

play04:03

特斯拉預計到時候會推出FSD V13版本

play04:07

這相對於V12來說會有全方面的升級

play04:09

FSD會變得更加智能,功能也隨之增加

play04:13

比如V13版本會多出停車,取消停車,和倒車等功能

play04:17

這將會是FSD的一大升級

play04:19

因為這會解決目前FSD的一大痛點

play04:22

車主也終於能夠體驗到更完善和全面的自動駕駛體驗

play04:26

而且在必要干預之間的行駛里程方面,V13版本預計將提高約6倍

play04:31

意味着在整體自動駕駛體驗上會有很明顯的進步

play04:34

而以上提到的這些都預計會發生在未來的2個月里

play04:38

最後,中國和歐洲的FSD都還在等待着監管部門的批准

play04:42

特斯拉預計該兩地區的FSD上線時間會在2025年的第一季度

play04:46

以上講到的這些基本上就是這次短期AI Roadmap的內容

play04:50

雖然裡面提到的很多功能和進度實際上都遲到了

play04:54

但我們可以看到進展的速度還是相當快的

play04:57

特斯拉也明顯正經歷着商業模式的轉變

play05:00

從只做電動車,轉變到也做新能源,AI,和機器人

play05:04

就像當年蘋果從一家電腦公司轉變為一家iPhone和軟件公司

play05:08

和亞馬遜從一家圖書公司發展成為雲計算巨頭那樣

play05:12

但儘管特斯拉仍有長期投資的價值

play05:15

作為投入真金白銀的投資人來說,買在安全邊際高的位置還是很重要的

play05:20

這周四特斯拉的上漲更多的只是市場的炒作

play05:23

而在10月份Robotaxi登場前資本可能也會炒作一下

play05:27

但我個人覺得特斯拉還是不要去追高

play05:29

除非你想玩短線,快進快出

play05:31

因為這種由炒作拉起的上漲在事後是很容易又跌回去的

play05:35

這在特斯拉身上已經出現過無數次了

play05:38

就像這周五一樣,大盤一回調特斯拉就把周四的漲幅全都吐回去了,跌了近9%

play05:45

至於特斯拉目前的長線加倉計劃我還是維持和之前一樣

play05:48

也就是如果已經有倉位了,可以先等$180再說

play05:52

這個價格在一個月前就見到過

play05:54

所以凡事皆有可能

play05:56

如果一支股票暫時不給機會,我們就先看其他股票好了

play06:00

反正美股的好公司那麼多

play06:02

這個市場最不缺的就是好企業

play06:04

還有,最近大盤也回調了

play06:06

因此我們的選擇有很多,誰給好的機會,咱們就買誰

play06:10

不過,在講到Snowflake之前

play06:12

有一家券商叫做IBKR

play06:14

目前現金在這家券商里可以賺取4.83%的高利息

play06:19

同時你還可以在上面交易零碎股,也就是一支股票可以買零點幾股

play06:23

這不僅可以讓交易更輕鬆,定投也會更容易

play06:27

同時也可以設置系統每月幫你自動買入定投

play06:30

而且不管是美國人還是外國人都可以在IBKR上開戶

play06:34

感興趣的朋友們可以點擊視頻底下描述欄或評論區里的鏈接開戶哦

play06:38

如果大家想支持一下老湯,想幫我增加一點瀏覽量的話

play06:42

也可以點擊一下這個IBKR的開戶鏈接

play06:45

只要簡單點擊一下就行了

play06:47

非常感謝大家的支持和幫助

play06:49

好,那接下來我們就來分析下Snowflake的最新財報

play06:55

首先,Snowflake今年第二季度的營收有$8.68億美元

play06:59

同比增長了29%

play07:01

超過了華爾街預估的8.52億

play07:04

另一邊,Non-GAAP EPS有$0.18,超過了華爾街預估的$0.16

play07:08

很明顯,這份財報理論上是雙beat的

play07:11

不僅如此,管理層還上調了營收指引

play07:14

他們預計第三季度的產品營收會在8.5億-8.55億之間,超過了8.51億的預期

play07:21

同時全年的產品營收指引也被提升了

play07:24

從之前預估的30億,提升到了33.56億,也一樣超過了預期

play07:30

就單純這麼看這份財報,可能會覺得沒有什麼問題,基本數據都挺好的

play07:35

但如果非要挑毛病

play07:36

那就是non-gaap營業利潤指引保持不變,沒有和營收指引一起提升

play07:41

意味着營收指引的提升是靠錢砸出來的

play07:44

畢竟Non-gaap數據里是不包含非現金費用的

play07:47

而且GAAP虧損在第二季度也同比擴大了36%

play07:51

主要是因為股權激勵加大了很多

play07:53

沒錯,Snowflake並沒有像其他小成長股那樣在近年來縮小GAAP虧損,反而還在增加中

play08:00

但說實話,我認為這些都不是讓Snowflake的股價在財報後下跌的主要原因

play08:05

因為股價在財報前已經在低位了

play08:08

因此我認為真正的問題出在於市場對Snowflake的信心下降了,所謂的情緒面影響

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那接下來我們就聊聊Snowflake在近期到底都發生了些什麼麻煩事

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導致市場對他們的情緒面如此差

play08:23

首先,在5月份的時候,Snowflake大量客戶的數據被盜

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其中包括Ticketmaster母公司Live Nation和電信巨頭AT&T等公司的數據

play08:33

也就是黑客通過利用存儲在一名員工機器上和項目管理工具JIRA中的未加密用戶名和密碼,成功獲得了訪問權限

play08:42

這些憑證被用來訪問了多個Snowflake客戶賬戶,包括Ticketmaster和Santander的賬戶

play08:48

令人震驚的是,這些賬戶中沒有一個啟用了多因素認證 (MFA),

play08:52

這就使得黑客更容易入侵了

play08:54

而此次數據泄露導致大量客戶的數據被盜

play08:58

其中包括:超過3000萬條銀行賬戶的詳細信息,

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600萬條賬戶號碼和餘額

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2800萬條信用卡號碼,以及有關員工的個人身份信息

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目前已知有165家企業遭殃

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不過根據調查,暫時還沒有發現Snowflake自己在此次事情中有任何的不當行為

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因為Snowflake的系統本身並沒有被直接攻破

play09:20

主要是客戶自己的賬戶安全設置不當

play09:23

對此,CEO也表示:“Snowflake對於這次數據泄露並不負有責任

play09:27

唯一被攻破的客戶賬戶都是那些 “沒有使用多因素認證的用戶名和密碼” 的賬戶

play09:33

另外,這些都只是新聞標題,並未真正影響我們與現有或新客戶的核心業務

play09:39

我們正與客戶討論更多關於安全性方面的事情,因為我們希望他們能夠安全。”

play09:45

然而儘管如此,Snowflake還是在公告里警告投資者說,此次Drama事件有可能會影響到他們的品牌聲譽

play09:53

因為哪怕這件事情不是Snowflake的問題

play09:56

但發生在他們提供的服務里多少會讓現有和新客戶對Snowflake產生質疑和擔憂

play10:01

這在某種程度上可能會影響到他們吸引新客戶

play10:05

甚至可能會延長他們的銷售周期,間接的影響到他們未來的業績

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巧的是,在第二季度,巴菲特也清倉了Snowflake

play10:13

剛好是在這些drama發生之後

play10:15

這簡直就是雪上加霜

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因為有不少投資人買入Snowflake是因為巴菲特而買入的

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然而如今他選擇在第二季度的這個drama期時清倉了肯定是會傷害到這股票的情緒面的

play10:27

主要是會讓投資人會懷疑Snowflake的基本面是不是變差了

play10:31

不過,我覺得巴菲特賣出Snowflake不一定全是因為數據泄漏的Drama,或者CEO的突然更換

play10:37

而是當初買入Snowflake的決策,可能是受到巴菲特副手Todd Combs與公司前CEO Slootman之間關係的影響

play10:44

因此在最初買入時如果不是巴菲特一個人的決定

play10:48

那麼在Snowflake的營收增長開始明顯放緩時賣出也就不奇怪了

play10:52

再加上剛剛提到的,舊CEO在前段時間,在業績沒有大問題的情況下突然被換掉了

play10:58

當時股價因此大跌,市場的反應明顯是不喜歡這一決策的

play11:03

因為儘管新CEO在AI領域裡有着更豐富的經驗

play11:06

但突然更換CEO會創造不確定性

play11:09

另外,今年Snowflake的EPS預計會下降38%

play11:13

代表着在盈利方面,今年本身就是snowflake的衰退年

play11:17

要知道,在業績衰退年裡的股價的表現很難好到哪去

play11:21

所以這也是snowflake在今年一直橫盤震蕩的主要原因之一

play11:24

還有,他們作為一家數據轉型的AI/LLM分析公司

play11:29

在AI上的步伐卻比競爭對手慢了一些,這一點市場是看得出來的

play11:34

因此最近的Snowflake又是換高管,又是巴菲特清倉,又有數據泄漏的drama,AI進展步伐不夠快,EPS也處在衰退年,和業績增長速度開始放緩等等

play11:45

自然的,過去半年的股價也就很疲軟

play11:48

可以說,情緒面上的利空實在是太多了

play11:51

總之,股價在財報后崩了,更多是市場的情緒面很差

play11:54

市場只要在財報里找到瑕疵,就想出貨砸盤

play11:58

在這種情況下,我個人是覺得接飛刀不太划算

play12:01

主要是巴菲特清倉等Dramas對情緒面的影響到底有多大是沒法用數據估算的

play12:07

而且Snowflake已經跌破了$122的支撐

play12:10

尤其是$110的大支撐又再次被跌破了

play12:13

代表着現在的股價有可能會繼續創新低

play12:16

這個飛刀接起來可能就會有點傷

play12:19

所以在Snowflake走出這個陰霾之前,都可以先觀望一下

play12:22

就算接下來反彈了,也很有可能會橫盤震蕩一段時間

play12:26

時間成本會比較高

play12:28

雖然這樣操作可能會錯過最低價

play12:30

但要知道,即將破位的股票的飛刀是有可能會接到你懷疑人生的

play12:35

而且Snowflake的業務很單一,這一點是我一直沒有開倉它的主要原因

play12:40

總之,這並非是一支一定要買的股票

play12:43

但如果你對Snowflake真的很感興趣的話

play12:45

那麼可以先等它站穩了再說

play12:48

主要是現在情緒面差到連估值什麼的都已經不重要了

play12:51

因此暫時不用急着加倉

play12:53

反正最近大盤才剛回調

play12:55

一般剛回調的時候先考慮買大盤股,大科技,和ETF會穩妥很多

play13:00

視頻的最後我們會來看一下我的公開賬戶

play13:03

以及大號在這周都做了些什麼操作

play13:06

自從2021年7月開始定投的M1定投賬戶的股票價值有$128,654

play13:12

這周由於納指回調了,所以我就給M1賬戶定投了$1,000

play13:16

接下來我會等納指測試200日或250日均線的支撐時再繼續定投和加倉

play13:22

微牛成長股賬戶在這周沒有任何的操作

play13:25

大號也一樣,沒有任何的操作

play13:27

如果大家想學習更多關於股票的知識呢

play13:29

我們現在有會員福利

play13:31

每個月只需要$2.99就能夠解鎖五個會員大福利

play13:34

未來可能還會有更多福利

play13:36

感興趣的朋友們可以點擊視頻底下訂閱按鈕旁邊的加入按鈕

play13:40

如果你是用手機在觀看的話呢

play13:42

那麼可以點擊視頻底下描述欄里的會員加入鏈接

play13:45

或者在電腦上點擊這個鏈接就可以加入進來啦

play13:48

最後感謝大家的支持與陪伴,歡迎大家加入,我們在群里見!

play13:52

好,今天的視頻就到這裡啦

play13:54

喜歡這一期視頻的朋友們請訂閱一下,點個贊和分享

play13:57

如果不小心點了這個小鈴鐺那就更棒了

play14:00

這樣下一次有新視頻就會第一時間通知大家

play14:03

感謝大家觀看

play14:04

那我們下期不見不散,拜拜

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