ICT Silver Bullet Strategy - No Daily Bias | With Backtest!
Summary
TLDR本视频介绍了一种名为“Silver Bullet”的交易策略,专注于上午10点至11点的交易时段。策略基于前一小时的最高点和最低点来设定交易范围,并在指定时间内寻找价格突破这些水平的入场机会。视频中通过实例和FX Replay软件进行了策略的演示和回测,展示了如何在特定时间窗口内捕捉交易机会,并在达到预定风险回报比后移动止损以锁定利润。回测结果显示,尽管交易次数不多,但策略在短期内实现了不错的收益。
Takeaways
- 🎯 视频主要讨论了Silver Bullet交易策略,专注于上午交易时段(AM session)。
- 📈 使用NQ作为交易标的,关注10到11点的时间窗口。
- 📊 交易框架基于前一小时的高点和低点,用于确定反转点。
- 🕒 10点整时,标记9点小时蜡烛图的高点和低点。
- 🔍 寻找价格突破这一范围的信号,以确定入场点。
- 🚫 只有在10到11点之间出现信号时,才会考虑交易。
- 📝 通过FX Replay进行回测,验证策略的有效性。
- 📉 在1分钟时间框架上观察价格行为,等待突破发生。
- 📈 如果价格突破高点,目标是前一小时的低点;反之亦然。
- 📊 回测结果显示,策略在7月份和8月份的前半段表现良好,总收益率为44.4%。
- 📋 交易平均持续时间为1小时29分钟,45天内进行了15笔交易。
- 🔄 策略的平均风险回报比约为5,意味着承担较高的风险。
Q & A
视频中提到的“Silver Bullet”交易策略是什么?
-“Silver Bullet”是一种专注于特定交易时段(上午10点至11点)的交易策略,它使用前一个小时(9点)的高点和低点来构建交易框架,寻找价格突破这些水平的入场点。
在“Silver Bullet”策略中,为什么只选择在上午10点至11点之间进行交易?
-这个时间窗口被认为具有特定的市场动态,可能提供更好的交易机会。策略的制定者选择在这个时间段内寻找入场点,以期获得更高的成功率。
在视频中,如何确定交易的入场点?
-入场点的确定是基于价格是否能够突破前一个小时(9点)的高点或低点。如果价格在上午10点至11点之间突破这些水平,就可能成为入场点。
视频中提到的“displacement”是什么意思?
-“Displacement”在这里指的是价格在特定方向上的移动,通常是在突破支撑或阻力位后的进一步价格移动。这种移动被视为确认突破的有效性。
在“Silver Bullet”策略中,如何设置止损和目标位?
-止损通常设置在入场点的相反方向,例如,如果是基于高点入场,止损就设置在高点之上。目标位则是基于前一个小时的低点或高点,具体取决于价格突破的方向。
视频中提到的“3R”是什么意思?
-“3R”指的是风险回报比,即交易者希望从交易中获得的盈利与潜在亏损的比例。在这个策略中,一旦达到3R的盈利,交易者会将止损移动到入场点,以确保至少不亏损。
视频中的交易者是如何进行回测的?
-交易者使用FX Replay工具进行回测,这是一种模拟交易环境,允许交易者在历史数据上测试他们的交易策略,以评估策略的有效性。
视频中提到的“fair value gap”是什么?
-“Fair value gap”指的是价格在特定时间点与预期价值之间的差距。在交易中,这可能被视为一个潜在的入场点,尤其是当价格从这个差距中恢复时。
视频中的交易者在回测中使用了哪些参数?
-交易者在回测中使用了$100,000的账户余额,交易NASDAQ的CFD NAS 100,并且回测了7月份到视频制作当天的所有交易日。
视频中提到的“order block”是什么?
-“Order block”指的是在价格图表上的一个区域,其中包含了大量的买卖订单。这个区域可能会对价格产生支撑或阻力作用,交易者会密切关注这些区域以寻找潜在的交易机会。
视频中的交易者在回测中的表现如何?
-在45天的回测期间,交易者实现了44.4%的总收益,其中7月份为23.5%,8月份(截至视频制作时)为16.93%。平均交易时长为1小时29分钟,共进行了15笔交易。
Outlines
📈 交易策略介绍与模型框架
本段落介绍了一个名为Silver Bullet的交易策略,专注于美国股市的AM时段。策略的核心是使用前一个小时(9:00 AM)的高点和低点来构建交易区间,并在10:00 AM至11:00 AM之间寻找入场点。作者通过PDF文件解释模型和框架,然后在TradingView中展示实例,并使用FX Replay进行回测。
🔍 实例分析与交易时机
在这一段中,作者通过实际的图表示例,展示了如何在1分钟时间框架内识别交易信号。作者强调了在Silver Bullet窗口(10:00 AM至11:00 AM)内等待价格突破的重要性,并详细描述了如何根据价格行为设定止损和目标位。
📊 FX Replay回测与策略验证
作者使用FX Replay工具对Silver Bullet AM策略进行了回测,展示了如何在模拟账户中设置策略并选择交易标的。回测覆盖了整个七月,并在视频中展示了策略的表现,包括盈利率和交易时间。作者还提到了策略的平均风险回报比率,并强调了回测时间的限制。
📉 交易案例与风险管理
在这一段中,作者通过连续几天的交易案例,展示了如何根据价格行为和市场结构来决定是否进入交易。作者强调了在11:00 AM之前寻找交易机会的重要性,并详细描述了如何根据价格突破和市场结构来设定入场点和止损。
📈 策略表现与统计分析
作者在这段视频中总结了策略的整体表现,包括最佳交易日和平均交易时长。通过统计数据,作者展示了策略在七月和八月的表现,以及平均风险回报比率。同时,作者提醒观众,这些数据是基于有限的回测时间得出的,更深入的回测可能会提供更多信息。
🎥 视频总结与观众互动
在视频的最后,作者总结了回测过程,并邀请观众在评论区表达对PM时段交易策略的兴趣。作者还提供了FX Replay的折扣代码和免费试用链接,鼓励观众亲自体验。最后,作者以感谢观众观看并期待下次见面作为结尾。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Silver Bullet
💡NQ
💡框架 (Framework)
💡交易视图 (Trading View)
💡FX Replay
💡风险管理 (Risk Management)
💡订单块 (Order Block)
💡价格行为 (Price Action)
💡风险回报比 (Risk-Reward Ratio)
💡回测 (Backtesting)
Highlights
视频专注于交易中的Silver Bullet AM时段,仅在此时段内寻找交易机会。
使用NQ作为交易代码,重点分析10到11点AM的时间窗口。
交易框架基于前一个小时的高点和低点来设定。
在10点AM时,使用9点AM的小时蜡烛图的高低点来标记交易范围。
只在10到11点AM的窗口内寻找入场点。
通过1分钟图表观察价格行为,等待价格突破高低点。
在FX Replay中进行回测,创建Silver Bullet AM时段策略。
使用$100,000的账户余额进行回测,选择交易NASDAQ。
在回测中,如果价格达到3R(风险回报比),则将止损移动到盈亏平衡点。
在没有达到高低点的情况下,不会寻找交易机会。
在回测中,如果价格在11点AM之前没有突破,会取消订单。
在回测中,如果价格在11点AM之前突破,会尝试进入交易。
在回测中,如果价格在11点AM之后突破,不会进入交易。
在回测中,如果价格在11点AM之前达到目标,会考虑移动止损。
在回测中,如果价格在11点AM之前没有达到目标,会保持止损。
在回测中,如果价格在11点AM之前达到3R,会移动止损到盈亏平衡点。
在回测中,如果价格在11点AM之前没有达到3R,会保持止损。
在回测中,如果价格在11点AM之前达到目标,会考虑退出交易。
Transcripts
[Music]
how's it going everyone this video is
going to be about the Silver Bullet now
for this one we are going to be focusing
on the am session only and using NQ as
the ticker we're first going to hop into
a PDF go over the model and framework
before we hop into trading view for some
examples and then into FX replay I'm
going to be focusing on the 10 to 11:
a.m. time window or the am session
Silver Bullet window the only time I
will take entries is if it appears
between 10 and 11 a.m. now for the
framework if you have seen my intraday
bias video you know that I will use the
previous candles high and low to frame
reversals and in this framework I'm
going to use the previous hours high and
low and in this case that's the 9:00
a.m. hourly candle so the first thing I
do when I get to the charts is once
10:00 a.m. hits I'll use the previous
hours high and low or the 9:00 a.m.
hourly candle and I'll mark off the low
and the high of that after that I am
looking for price to take one side of
this range so in this case it takes the
9 A.M high and then I look for a entry
to Target the 900 a.m. low similarly if
we were to take the low of this candle
then I would look to be targeting the
high now these entries have to fall
within 10 to 11: a.m. window or I will
not be looking for them so let's take a
look at a few examples of that so here
we are on the hourly chart and the first
thing I do is Mark off the high and the
low of the 9:00 a.m. hourly candle so
here I have marked that off now I drop
down to the 1 minute time frame now for
Simplicity sake I'm going to remove
these cuz I already have tfo's indicator
setup to Mark out that range for me the
next thing I'm going to do is Mark out
the Silver Bullet window and that is
from 10 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. all I do is
sit back and wait for a stop raate to
occur below this low or above this high
so here we have a stop raid now I'm
looking for an entry model lower to
Target this low so let's see what
happens no displacement down yet
displacement back up so we're probably
going to reach for this
high now let's see what happens
here okay come back down no displacement
down and here what I see is this order
block here because it's supporting
price so we'll let one more candle play
out we have a care value Gap there as
well and midnight opening
price so what I'll do is I'll look to
take a short entry we'll use the
midnight and the consequent encroachment
there my stop on this high and where am
I targeting the other side of this
previous hours
candle
that is our first example so here we
have our next example and our 9:00
candle here so let's mark out the high
and the low and then drop down to the 1
minute chart once again I removed those
lines as I have the session indicator
set up to mark this out for me now the
next thing I'm going to do is Mark out
10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. with a
vertical line as that is the Silver
Bullet window now let's go ahead and
watch price
action
you can see that price never swept the
low or the high of this range so this
would be a session where I would not be
looking to take a trade now that you
understand the model let's hop into FX
replay and back test this so here we are
on FX replay and this is what it would
look like if you just got your account
and so the first thing we're going to do
go over here create a strategy type in
Silver
Bullet am
session
and then we're going to create a session
here and we'll go for this example with
a $100,000 balance and we're going to be
trading
NASDAQ so we'll choose the cfd nas 100
and for this video we'll back test all
of July up to the current date of this
Friday we'll use our strategy Silver
Bullet am session and go ahead and start
that here go ahead and click this play
now button we have two window panes up
one with the 1 hour one with the 1
minute we're going to go ahead and
customize some settings here so we have
it set to next Silver Bullet session so
the start of the New York a.m. at 10: so
using that when we hit go to here we are
at 10:00 a.m. so now what we do is we
Mark out the high and low on the 1 hour
chart
here from here going to be watching the
one minute to see if we get a reversal
or take this high or take this low
letting this play ahead shallow sweep
let's see if we break this
slow we don't yet we sweep this low
likely to go a little
higher okay here's a displacement up
very shallow sweep so I want to see if
we close below here for those up close
candles we
don't there's another
sweep
[Music]
okay
there's prettyy aggressive movement
up now I want to see if we can close
below this low that made the new
high okay so we do so what I'm going to
Mark out is this breaker block
here and I will be looking to enter
short on this
breaker I stop on this high and then I
reach for this low Now what are my other
requirements it has has to be before
11:00
a.m. so click here hit place order
risking 1% cell
limit put my cell limit there and let's
see what
happens this one might miss us oh we got
tagged
in right before 11:00 a.m. so let's see
what happens and what I did in back
testing was once this hits 3r I will
move my stop to break
even so we just hit our 3r there so I'm
going to grab my stop loss put it at
break even and from here we'll go ahead
and go 5 minutes at a time and see how
this plays
out and there we go it took to the next
day to hit price Target however it did
offer 3 R pretty much directly after the
first move so let's hop into the next
day and go to our new Silver Bullet
session let's go ahead and Mark out our
hourly high and hourly low and now we
are going to wait and see what
happens so here we get a sweep below
this low let's see what
happens okay another sweep there so what
I'm looking at is this up Clos candle
before the sweep down we get a nice
close over that would be a breaker
so we get a close over here
so I would be looking for a long
here reach to the other side of this
hour candle my stop at the low and let's
see if this occurs before the 11: a.m.
Killzone
ends risk 1% let's see how it works
out so until it hits there not looking
for break
even
we hit our 3.56 R so let's go to next
Silver Bullet so here we have our 900
a.m. candle Mark that out go ahead and
Mark our 10 to 11 window and here we are
on the one minute switch back to one
minute pretty shallow sweep let's see if
we get any
displacement Okay small fair value Gap
there so we could take that not super
convincing to me I want to see a more
aggressive displacement down okay so
that's pretty
aggressive so using this up close candle
as an entry stop
here where am I targeting this
low so about 7.18
R place the
order so it hits 3 R so I'll move my
stop to break
even and there we go go to the next
silver bullets Mark out this high and
low price did not sweep either side
within our range so we'll go to the next
day marking out the 9:00 a.m. high or
low okay so we're sweeping this low so
ideally I'd want to see it reach Above
This
High okay no displacement
up okay
get a sweep break structor here so see
if we get an entry right
here I'm using that fair value
gab and leaves without us so we cancel
our order cuz it's outside the 11:00
a.m. window so here we are on the next
day Mark out the 9:00 a.m. candle I and
low
okay we do touch that high I I don't
really consider that a sweep just equal
highs okay there's a sweep
over
okay we're continuing higher up Clos
candle supporting
price okay now I'm going to be watching
this down close candle before the move
up let's see if this resists price
currently supporting
okay now we have a close below that so
what I'm going to be looking to do is
take this order
block inside this mitigation or breaker
as an entry I stop on the high where am
I
targeting the other side of this candle
here place the
order see how this works
out
okay three R move my stop to break
even and there we go so let's go to the
next New York a.m session going to Mark
out the 9:00 a.m. candles low and the
high and let's see what
happens and here we are at our 11 a.m.
no sweep so we'll go to the next day
going to Mark out our 9 am high and
low so we get a sweep see if we get any
structur pointing down we do
not see if these down Clos candles
support price higher they are
currently here we're
getting a little bit of a move
down so we'll go ahead and enter on this
fair value Gap
and it doesn't take us in so if we're
looking at it we would have taken our
entry on the breaker we would have been
tagged in however wanted the fair value
Gap entry so we didn't get it let's just
see how this one would have worked
out it does go and take that low so if
we would have had a different entry
would have ended up with
around 7.5r but that's it's okay let's
go to the next one so here we are in the
next day going to Mark out our low and
our high
here and there is our 11:00 a.m. nothing
happens so let's go to the next day
here's our 9:00 a.m. low and
high nothing happens once again let's go
to the next day low and the high marked
out so we take the low see if there's
any aggressive displacement back into
the range
there is so can use this fair value Gap
if we want see what kind of risk reward
that would give us stop on the low
targeting the other side
2.85 and there we
go let's go to the next day so here we
have our 9:00 a.m. candle let's mark out
the low and the high of this and see
what
happens
okay so we just took that low I'd want
to see a nice close over this
High okay we're getting that
so there value Gap within that targeting
this
high and let's see how it works
out and stops us out let's go to the
next day here we have our 9 a.m. low and
high so looks like we've already swept
it on this candle so let's see if we get
any entry model or displacement higher
here so we want to see some structure
moving up here
okay let's try try this fair value
Gap and there is another loss so let's
go to the next day so here we are on the
24th see what happens
here and there we hit our 11:00 a.m.
with no entry let's go to the next day
Mark out our low and our high here on
the
25th here we get a
sweep see if we get any aggressive
displacement down
here ideally would actually want to see
it below that
low
okay it's not super convincing sweep
there H I don't really like this price
action
there's no clear
displacement and then if I was to enter
in here we have equal highs and I want
my stop up there so I might just miss
this
one we're outside the 11: a.m. Zone
anyways if we would have taken this
little breaker entry what would it have
offered just about 2.5 R not a fan of
that price action or these sweeps in
here let's go to the next day oh here we
are on the
26th okay here is our sweep but where
are we at here's our 11 so does an entry
provide itself at 11 no going to the
next day here we are on the 27th let's
mark out our high and
low okay here's a sweep of this low
let's mark out our 11 let's see if we
get an entry model moving back higher we
want to see this met immediately with
aggressive displacement higher or if we
just get a retracement it's likely to go
lower it's not very aggressive back up
suppose we could try this flow
but not really a
fan I like to see a lower time frame
sweep so entry model below here not just
this so let's go to the next day Mark
out our 9:00 a.m. high and low let's see
what happens
here okay there there's a
sweep de you would want to be seeing you
know a break below
here
or okay so we have a fair value Gap in
this little breaker we'll try
it where am I targeting this
low and once I hit three R that's when I
want want to be break even so see how
this works
out we're in and stopped
out so looks like it just did I put my
stop on that
high yeah that looks to be unlucky so
here we are marking out the low and the
high of this
range and there we are at our 11 so our
end of our window so we'll go to the
next day so here we are on
Tuesday the first Mark out our lowend
our high see what
happens so here's our sweep this is
pretty choppy so we'll see what happens
pretty aggressive
down um should have guess we can take
this order block
entry might have missed it let's see if
it comes back up
clicked too
fast all right here we go pretty quick
one aggressive out aggressive in I
thought it was going to hit this order
block and then leave us but did take us
in so let's go to the next one so here's
our 9 a.m. high and low let's see what
happens
here okay so we have our sweep do we
have any structure moving
up nope not
yet I don't really like this because
aggressive displacement it's kind of a
consolidation or
retracement so not a fan of
that so we hit
our 11: a.m. let's go to the next
session so here we are on the third
we've already taken that previous high
so I want to see if we're going to reach
for this low here so ideally I'd want to
see a sweep of here I want to see price
close below
here
structure okay no closing below
there okay there's a close
below this one isn't as convincing to me
but we'll give it a
try not a fan of this generally once it
uh already reaches almost to that low
not really looking to enter that I
prefer the entry on the cell side of the
curve not when price is coming back so
now we have displacement down back up so
that's why I personally would cancel
this but let's see how how it would work
out and actually would have never filled
us before 11:00 a.m. anyways so here we
are on the fourth Mark out our low and
our high and let it play out so here we
have a sweep
down all right we'll give this a try
this breaker stop
there Target
here my 3r break even
point right there and let's give this a
go there's three R move my stop to break
even so let's go to the next am
session here we are on the
7th Mark out the low and the high and
see what
happens seems the 10 a.m. candle just
took this low so if we don't come back
into the range not a large possibility
of going for that high let's see what
happens um not sure what the candles are
doing
there so not going to do anything about
it CU I can't see this
structure but there's our 11:00 a.m.
we'll go to the next session here's our
9 a.m. high or low so there's a
sweep see if we get any displacement up
here okay I'm going to look to Long
right here I stop on this low Target the
other side of this
range and that's just at 3r so no reason
to project it
Fib so we're in there and stopped out so
let's go to the next session Mark out
the low and the
high let's see what happens
here okay here's a sweep down I'd want
to see displacement back
up no displacement back up this candle
is respecting this fair value
yet not very aggressive not a a fan of
that okay let's go to the next session
Mark out our high and our low and let's
see what happens we already took it on
the 10 a.m. candle see if we get any
displacement
down so lower time frame sweep or we're
going to get another one we'll see so I
want to see displacement down there's
displacement
down fa value
Gap
see what
happens and for this one going to
project my
FIB see where three are
is there's three R move my stop to break
even and there we
go let's go to the next session so here
we are on the 11th let's mark out our
highend our low and let's see what
happens
here okay out
there's a
sweep now we close below the body of
this so could take an entry on the
breaker here we'll give it a
go and comes back and stops us out so
here we are on the
14th Mark out our low and our high and
let's see what happens
here okay here's a
sweep see if we get any structure
down not super clean let's see close
below there
[Music]
no okay there's aggressive
down order
block this is what I'm not liking about
this can't sweep below this L I'm going
to give it one more
candle see if we sweep below that that
low yeah that was a good
decision I want to see this third candle
close below here before returning to
this water
block and yeah we just rip higher so
let's go to the next session so here we
are on the 15th let's mark out this High
and the low
here we already are below this low see
if we get any move back
up does not look like we're going to
come back up we'll see
consolidation let's see if we get met
with a reversal
here and there we go at our 11 I don't
personally like all this down here I
suppose I could have went for something
there not really my style so here we are
on the what day is this the
16th see what happens here okay there is
a
sweep now let's see if we get any
displacement lower here
okay that's still supporting price
higher supporting price higher see if we
get another sweep here nope there's
aggressive displacement through
there through that low and look to enter
here on the breaker or we can take the
fair value
Gap to this
low let's go ahead and enter
there
and there we
go let's go to the next day so here we
are on the 17th let's mark out the high
and the low here see what
happens so here we get a
sweep I'd want to see a nice close Above
This High
here okay no close above there didn't
like that
this should either support price lower
or be a turning
point looks like price is going to Trend
down
here there's a move
up not really a
fan and there is our 11: a.m. suppose we
could enter that but not really a fan of
that so here we have our high and our
low marked out let's see what happens
here there is a sweep it's very shallow
which not a huge fan of
that no real displacement
up no fair value gaps just
met okay here's a sweep again there's
displacement
now let's see what happens right
here not a fan of that risk her
reward but we'll keep it on the swing
low and see what
happens there we go let's go to the next
day and that was actually our last day
it looks like so let's go to uh let's go
take a look at these
analytics so here we are in the
analytics we can go through day by day
if we want to look at it and see what
our best days were it seems like
Wednesday was our best day however I'm
just focused on all you can see our
Equity curve pretty decent we're taking
higher risk to reward trades right there
average RR of about five so it makes
sense to see you know some larger spikes
and then slower points in this equity
curve now if we go take a look at some
more of these statistics you see our
average trade was an hour and 29 minutes
took 15 trades took it over 45 days so
looking at how we did performance by
month we only back tested July and half
of August so far so July we ended up
with 23.5% and August so far with
16.93% for a total of
44.4% now it's important to notice I
only tested this over 45 days and 15
trades if I was to do a deeper back test
I would be able to find out more
information and see how this is Over
time however I do hope you enjoyed this
video of back testing now if you want to
check out FX Replay for yourself there
will be a code and a link in the
description below that will get you 15%
off and a free 5-day trial I hope you
enjoyed this video if you did find it
helpful I am considering doing a PM
session bullet if you are interested in
that let me know in the comments below
other than that I hope you have a great
rest of your day and I'll see you guys
later
Просмотреть больше связанных видео
tradingview這套100%有效最佳加密貨幣策略,獲利高達4208%!(最佳免費線性迴歸斜率策略)
【强烈推荐】顶级的交易策略,胜率/收益率/频率三率全优的神级交易系统#交易系统#交易策略回测#MACD
ICT Forex Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide - Vol. 6
Ultimate Day Trading Strategy Guide 📚🍏for Beginners (Working in 2024!)
Ultimate SMART MONEY CONCEPTS Trading Course (EXPERT INSTANTLY)
ICT - Mastering High Probability Scalping Vol. 1 of 3
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)