ARM HOLDINGS (ARM STOCK): WILL CRASH?

Summary

ARM Holdingsの株価は今年約100％上昇し、特に人工知能（AI）の影響が大きいと言われています。ARMは世界で最も普及しているCPUアーキテクチャの一つであり、280億個以上のチップが出荷されています。しかし、最近の売上は13％しか成長しておらず、NVIDIAの成長と比べると差があります。現在の市場評価は売上の145億倍と高く、投資家はAI関連の株に熱狂しています。しかし、この評価は実際の利益と比べて過大であり、将来的には株主にとって勝利とは言えない可能性もあります。

Takeaways

• 📈 ARM Holdings的股价今年迄今上涨了大约100%。
• 🚀 ARM受益于人工智能革命，管理层强调其在AI领域的重要性。
• 🌐 ARM的CPU架构无处不在，包括智能手机、云基础设施和自动驾驶汽车等。
• 💡 ARM的CPU设计旨在提高能效和性能。
• 💰 ARM的商业模式包括许可和版税收入，这通常意味着高利润率和大量自由现金流。
• 📊 ARM最近一季度的销售额仅增长了13%，与NVIDIA的增长相比有显著差异。
• 🔢 ARM的市值为1450亿美元，而销售额为32亿美元，估值可能过高。
• 🤔 投资者可能对提及AI并显示出增长潜力的股票过于兴奋。
• 💭 尽管ARM可能会从AI革命中受益，但这并不一定意味着股东会从中获益，尤其是考虑到当前的高估值。
• 📚 推荐阅读克莱顿·克里斯滕森的《创新者的困境》，以理解现有企业如何适应新技术。
• 💡 投资者应该考虑基本面、自由现金流和估值，以确定投资回报。

Q & A

ARM Holdingsの株価はどのくらい上昇しましたか？

ARM Holdingsの株価は、約100％上昇しています。

ARM Holdingsが注目される理由は何ですか？

ARM Holdingsは、人工知能（AI）革命から利益を得ていると管理层が語っているため、注目されています。ARMのCPUがAIを可能にするデバイス全般に普及していることからです。

ARM Holdingsの市場シェアはどの程度ですか？

ARM Holdingsは、世界で最も普及しているCPUアーキテクチャの一つであり、創立以来に280億個以上のチップが出荷されています。

ARM Holdingsのビジネスモデルの魅力は何ですか？

ARM Holdingsのビジネスモデルの魅力は、ライセンスやロイヤルティ-feesからの高マージンと多くの自由キャッシュフローです。

ARM Holdingsの最近の売上成長はどのくらいですか？

ARM Holdingsの最近の売上成長は13％です。

ARM Holdingsの市場評価はどのくらいですか？

ARM Holdingsの市場評価は145億ドルです。

ARM Holdingsの売上と市場評価の比率はどのくらいですか？

ARM Holdingsの売上と市場評価の比率は約45倍です。

ARM HoldingsがAIの勝利者となる可能性はありますか？

ARM HoldingsはAI革命から利益を得ることができる可能性がありますが、投資家の利益を保証するものではありません。

AI革命の影響でどのような新しいビジネスモデルが現れる可能性がありますか？

AI革命の影響で、新しいプレイヤーが現れ、従来のビジネスモデルとは異なる新しいタイプのビジネスが成功する可能性があります。

ARM Holdingsの株価が今後どうなるかを予測するために考慮すべき要素は何ですか？

ARM Holdingsの株価を予測するために考慮すべき要素は、基本的な業績、株主への自由キャッシュフロー、そして株価の評価です。

ARM Holdingsの株式を保有するよりも現金を保有することが優れている可能性があるのはなぜですか？

ARM Holdingsの株式を保有するよりも現金を保有することが優れている可能性があるのは、現在の市場評価が非常に高いため、将来的には株価の評価がリセットされ、投資家の利益が損なわれる可能性があるからです。

Outlines

00:00

📈 ARM Holdingsの株価とAIの影響

ARM Holdingsの株価は約100％上昇しており、今日は1.42％上昇しています。投資家はAI革命の恩恵を受けていると話題を集めています。ARMは世界で最も普及しているCPUアーキテクチャの一つであり、280億個以上のチップが出荷されています。ARMのCPUはAIを可能にする中央プロセッサユニットを提供し、スマートフォンやクラウドインフラストラクチャ、自動運転車、物联网など、AIをサポートする様々な分野で使用されています。ARMのビジネスモデルはライセンスやロイヤルティ-feesに基づいており、高いマージンと多くの自由キャッシュフローを提供します。しかし、最近の四半期で売上は13％しか成長しておらず、NVIDIA株の成長と比較してはるかに低く、市場価値は売上の45倍にも達しています。

05:00

🤔 ARMの評価と投資家の反応

ARMの株価は上昇傾向にあるものの、投資家の反応は過熱している可能性がある。ARMの売上は3億ドルであり、市場価値は145億ドルに達しています。このような評価は、ARMがAI革命の勝者となるか、投資家が過度に熱狂しているかを疑問に思わせる。投資家の反応は、AIが成長の軌道を提供する可能性があるため、株価が急上昇している。しかし、ARMはCPU市場に大きく依存しており、AI革命の勝者は新しいプレイヤーになる可能性が高いと述べています。

10:00

📚 AI革命と投資戦略

AI革命が進む中で、投資家はARMの将来とその投資価値を考える必要があります。ARMはAI革命の恩恵を受ける可能性があるが、投資家の利益を保証するものではない。市場の評価は高いため、将来的には株式の価値が下がる可能性がある。投資家の戦略としては、現金を保有したり、別の投資先を探したりすることが提案されています。また、AI革命がもたらす新しいビジネスモデルやサービスが、従来のビジネスを置き換える可能性があることも考慮する必要があります。

Keywords

💡ARM Holdings

ARM Holdingsは、CPUアーキテクチャを提供する企業で、スマートフォンやクラウドインフラストラクチャなどのAIを可能にする中央プロセッサユニット（CPU）を提供しています。ビデオでは、ARMの株価が約100％上昇し、AI革命の恩恵を受けていると説明されています。

💡AI Revolution

AI革命とは、人工知能技術の進歩が様々な産業に革新をもたらす現象を指します。このビデオでは、AIがARM Holdingsの成長に寄与していることが強調されています。

💡CPU

CPU（Central Processing Unit）は、コンピュータの中心となる部分であり、処理能力を提供します。ARM HoldingsはCPUの設計を提供し、AIアプリケーションを可能にしています。

💡Market Cap

市場価値（Market Cap）は、企業の総資産価値を示す指標で、株式市場での企業の価値を表します。ビデオでは、ARMの市場価値が売上の145億ドルに対して非常に高いと指摘されています。

💡Investors

投資家（Investors）は、株式や他の資産を購入し、将来的な利益を得るために投資を行なう人々です。ビデオでは、投資家がARM Holdingsの株式に興味を持ち、その株価を推し上げる様子が描かれています。

💡Licensing and Royalty Fees

ライセンスとロイヤルティ料（Royalty Fees）は、企業が自社の技術や製品を使用することを許可する際に、受け取る金銭的な対価です。ARM Holdingsは、CPUアーキテクチャのライセンスを提供し、ロイヤルティ料を得ています。

💡Power Efficiency

電力効率（Power Efficiency）は、デバイスやシステムが電気エネルギーを効率的に使用する能力を指します。ARM Holdingsは、CPUをより電力効率的なものにすることで、顧客のニーズに応えています。

💡Ecosystem

生態系（Ecosystem）は、相互作用する生物や環境が形成する複雑なネットワークを指します。ここでは、ソフトウェア開発者がARMの基盤を利用してアプリケーションを構築するエコシステムを指します。

💡Valuation

評価（Valuation）は、企業や資産の価値を定量化するプロセスです。ビデオでは、ARMの株式の評価が議論されており、その市場価値が実際の業績と比較して非常に高いとされています。

💡Innovator's Dilemma

イノベーターのジレンマ（Innovator's Dilemma）とは、既存の企業が新しい技術やビジネスモデルに適応できないという現象を指します。ビデオでは、AI革命において新しいプレイヤーが成功する可能性があることが示されています。

💡AI Ticker Chat

AI Ticker Chatは、AI技術を活用した株式市場の分析や情報提供サービスです。ビデオ内で言及されているのは、新しいAIツールの一例であり、AI革命がもたらす新しい機能やサービスを示しています。

Highlights

ARM Holdings stock has risen 100% year to date.

ARM is benefiting from the artificial intelligence revolution.

ARM's AI is not just powered by Nvidia but is widespread across various applications.

ARM's CPUs are integrated into smartphones, cloud infrastructures, autonomous vehicles, and IoT.

ARM is considered a key player in AI due to its pervasive CPU architecture.

ARM has shipped over 280 billion chips since inception.

ARM's business model is attractive due to licensing and royalty fees, leading to high margins and free cash flow.

ARM's sales grew 13% in the most recent quarter, which is less than Nvidia's growth.

ARM's market cap is $145 billion with sales of around $3.2 billion, indicating a high valuation.

The speaker suggests that the current valuation of ARM may be too high, likening it to 'bananas'.

ARM's growth is expected to be around 20% for fiscal 24.

The speaker discusses the potential overvaluation of ARM and the risk of investor mania.

The speaker suggests holding more cash due to the current market mania for AI stocks.

The speaker mentions Fairfax Financial as a top holding and an alternative investment to consider.

ARM is seen as a legacy infrastructure company that may win in the AI revolution but not necessarily for shareholders.

The speaker references 'The Innovator's Dilemma' by Clayton Christensen to discuss the challenges faced by established companies in the face of disruptive innovation.

The speaker emphasizes that fundamentals, free cash flow, and valuation are the key drivers of returns over time.

The speaker suggests that holding cash might be a better option than investing in ARM for the next few years due to valuation concerns.

Transcripts

ARM Holding stock up roughly

100% year to date looking at the price

action alone today up at

1.42% on big volume investors are going

bananas over arm Holdings armm is a

ticker partly because management is

talking about how they are benefiting

from the artificial intelligence

Revolution and they're saying look it's

not only Nvidia that's empowering it you

should look at arm AI on arm is

everywhere so you're talking about the

artificial intelligence powered by the

central processing units that arm

enables and you're looking at

smartphones you're looking at some of

the cloud infrastructures where Nvidia

actually integrates some CPUs with some

of their products it's you know Nvidia

is mostly known for the GPU Market but

you're also talking about autonomous

vehicles like Cruise you're also talking

about internet of things so everywhere

that you can use a CPU to help enable

users with artificial intelligence

they're saying look arm is actually one

of these key players and when you look

at arm they talk about being one of the

world's most pervasive CPU architecture

so over 280 billion chips shipped since

Inception that have the arm-based

infrastructure so this is a very

powerful Monopoly type of business this

is a type of unrivaled company that I

normally like to see and you get some

very strong advantages when you have the

defined you know architecture that

everyone uses because hey everyone uses

it so you have this so you know this

ecosystem of software where people say

oh okay there are thousands of people

already using this we're going to use

this to integrate you know into new

applications or new functions like an

autonomous vehicles or like internet of

things you want smart cameras you

already have a base of of of builders

that can leverage the arm infrastructure

and a key aspect of what they've done

with the arm infrastructure with the

CPUs is to help make it more power

efficiency you know use less electricity

and also increasing the performance of

these CPUs that's the key aspects of

what drives you know customers to say oh

yeah we should use the standard arm

infrastructure arm you know foundational

architecture for the chips and because

of this aspect of this business model it

it makes it very attractive because this

means customers are either licensing

from them or paying paying very nice

royalty fees and whenever you're

thinking about licensing or royalty fees

you're talking about high margins with

lots of free cash flow that's so that's

why investors like to look at this and

so the question is well is arm going to

be an AI winner or is it just an example

of a you know a company where investors

are just going bananas investors are

taking one idea too far and I'll share

some of my thoughts on this in just a

second first of all in full disclosure

this is not Financial advice as we look

at arm's actual results their sales only

grew 13% in the most recent quarter this

is hardly the revolution that you're

seeing with Nvidia stock this is part of

the reason why I think the recent one

run with um you know looking at the

results for arm is just that it's it's

it's a bit much investors are getting a

little Trigger Happy in terms of the the

potential for for this business yes it's

it's ex exceptional but 200% growth for

NVIDIA versus 133% growth for arm it is

quite a difference they are guiding to

around 20% growth for fiscal 24 so

except you know expecting an

acceleration in this business but look

this is still heavily tied to the CPU

Market with dominant market share

position there you know for this

architecture but you know you're talking

about a business with $3 billion in

sales around 3.2 billion in sales you

are talking about a business that's

growing at a good clip but you're also

talking about a business with a 145

billion market cap so 3 billion in sales

$145 billion market cap that's that's in

my opinion bananas like 45 times sales

you know for a business that you know I

can understand 45 times sales for let's

say a startup where you're like oh we

are going to go exponential in the years

ahead I'm not so sure that you can do

that with arm I don't think I it would

just surprise me like what what math

would you need to see in order just to

even break even with the current market

cap and so we'll talk about that dynamic

in just a second so where does arm go

from here first a quick plug recently on

our exclusive Discord server a member a

member of unrivaled investing of the

premium subscription relay that he

believes unraveled investing has the

best cost performance ratio that's a

direct quote relative to Alternative

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available so if you're looking for

compelling investment ideas consider

unrivaled investing which includes a

weekly letter and my personal portfolio

updates in real time I also have

educational materials how to you know

think about reading fin cial statements

or valuing stocks I made this with in

mind you know based on my own personal

experience on Wall Street what I would

have wanted to know when I first started

you know all the you know the the

various different lessons from looking

at you know arguably thousands of

companies over time so as I think about

the valuation for arm you know this is a

hypothetical framework of course stock

price can go way higher way lower but I

think it is helpful for investors to

consider you know what would it take

just to break even and so here it is

three different scenarios no pil and

bananas in the highest scenario bananas

I'm assuming 35% profit margins that's

nowhere near where they currently are

this is significantly higher and 35%

growth for the next 5 years which once

again is multiples of their current

growth rate and a 30 times earnings

multiple 5 years from now in this

scenario the most optimistic of these

three different scenarios it's down 25%

over the next 5 years so I this

reiterates the point on why I think arm

is currently bananas investors are going

absolutely you know crazy over any type

of stock that mentions Ai and shows like

hey AI could be a big part of our growth

trajectory or AI is helping drive this

business so what are alternatives when I

see what's going on with arm it does

make me think I want to hold more cash I

personally keep my cash at interactive

brokers uh currently yielding over 4.8%

see the link below for interactive

brokers I think you know this type of

mania does give me pause it makes me

think everyone's sort of chasing you got

a lot a fomo it is a concern so it makes

me want to hold more cash makes me want

to reflect on my positions I don't like

to see this type of animal spirits

another alternative I recently did not

one but two separate videos on one of my

top Holdings called Fairfax Financial

you can see it here on YouTube I also

share you know broadly what where I find

compelling you know what I find

compelling individual ideas uh that I

mostly save for my exclusive subscribers

at unrivaled investing.com you know the

weekly updates and you know when when I

call out when I'm buying something

saying hey here's the reason why um but

you know I I don't often call out my top

Holdings on YouTube uh but I did this

just in response because it was actually

a short report on Fairfax so I wanted to

talk about it because I thought it could

create an opportunity for those folks

that are looking to explore different

types of companies Fairfax is an

insurance company based in Canada so is

arm an AI winner well I think it could

be a winner but ultimately it comes down

to you know a couple of different ideas

and I'm showing a a screenshot of AI

ticker chat because I think it's

worthwhile for investors to reflect you

can have a company that wins and

benefits from this AI Revolution but it

doesn't necessarily mean investors will

benefit you can have a company that's

unrivaled such a you know possibly arm

where you're saying hey it has this

Monopoly type position with CPU

infrastructure but you could still be a

loser from an investment perspective

because the starting valuation is just

so rich and I think that's something for

investors to consider right now

especially as you see see the stock just

going bananas going you know

perpendicular going or going parabolic I

should say you know over the last few

days of you know AI Revolution this is

amazing I think it's worthwhile to

understand who actually wins with the AI

Revolution well if the internet is any

sort of you know example well was it

Yellow Pages then became yellowpages.com

and they won no it was a new form factor

it was a new type of business that one

it was Google and Google wasn't even the

first was it all these independent

travel agencies that won just by adding

a doom to their name or was it price

line or bookings that figured out how to

rapidly take market share was it the

Airbnb Airbnb sort of came up with a

whole new business model but you know

I'm sharing Google I'm sharing price

line or or or booking because of this

example of it's often times a new player

that comes in it's not just the Legacy

institutions Legacy infrastructure so I

would personally mentally put arm as

this sort of of Legacy infrastructure

that will likely win but I don't

necessarily view it as shareholders

winning in the future I think what we

win I think consumers broadly win with

the AI Revolution but I think what

you're going to see is just lots and

lots of new assistants and helpers that

can and and new apps where you go wow

this is

functionality that we didn't even get

before you know previously people used

Yahoo finance now you can use you know

AI ticker chat and you can get Next

Level type of insights and I think it's

going to be series of these AI functions

AI tools that where you go wow this

wasn't even something I conceived of

previously like Yahoo finance didn't

tell me you know what's the range of the

stock that it could be in the future or

Yahoo finance didn't explain to me why

is this stock higher or lower on these

results now you can do that by

leveraging artificial intelligence and I

believe it's going to be the new players

partly because of there was a wonderful

book I you know I couldn't find it but

it was um you know Klay Christian's Klay

christensen's innovators dilemma and

that's That's a classic Google's the

classic example right now because you

know the search business model is you

know it's very different margins than

running you know the the the you know

the AI powered inquiries that you're

seeing the gbt type of inquiries the llm

inquiries which is much more costly and

so you you have the existing players say

okay how do I want to adapt to that and

so that's you know innovator's dilemma

is okay someone else comes in and they

offer something that you know it might

be a much much lower price point and it

might not solve the total solution that

you're looking for but if it addresses

this Niche and it does it in a in a

really clever way then it slowly takes

market share over time and these

innovators can start you know adding new

features and going up market and that

disrupts the market markets uh so

innovator's dilemma i' i' highly

recommend you you you think about or get

the book or read the cliffnotes version

uh just because I think that's where we

are right now with this AI Revolution I

think arm will benefit but I think as

always there are only three things that

drive returns over time folks there's

the fundamentals fundamentals let's say

are great for arm but then there's the

free cash flow to shareholders and then

there's the valuation and if the

valuation you know resets you can have a

period where despite strong growth the

valuation create a headwind where you're

actually underwater and that's why I

tried showing with the valuation

framework is that arm could be you know

you might be better off holding cash

than arm for the next few years and

that's you know that's why I was calling

out with that framework I hope this

video has been helpful for you thinking

about arm and the current AI Revolution

uh I'm sharing my own personal product

that that I'm helping co-found that's AI

ticker chat so check that out first

month is free hope this video has been

helpful for you thanks so much for

tuning in