Half of the world’s population growth will be in Africa by 2050
Summary
TLDRThe African continent faces a population boom, projected to double by 2050, leading to urban migration and challenges in housing and employment. Efforts to reduce birth rates through education and 'husband schools' are underway, while agricultural and industrial revolutions are key to creating jobs and sustaining growth. The script explores innovative solutions like vertical urban planning in Lagos and Ethiopia's focus on infrastructure and manufacturing to harness the demographic dividend, amidst concerns over democracy and human rights.
Takeaways
- 🌍 The African population is projected to double by 2050, reaching 2.5 billion people, with significant implications for urbanization and resource management.
- 🏙️ Rapid urbanization is leading to a surge in city populations, with many young people moving to cities that struggle to provide adequate housing, education, and healthcare.
- 📈 High birth rates contribute to population growth, with Niger having an average of 7.6 children born per woman, and cultural norms making it challenging to reduce these numbers.
- 👨👩👧👦 Efforts are being made to educate both women and men about family planning, contraception, and the consequences of early marriage to curb population growth.
- 🏛️ The 'husband school' is an initiative aimed at engaging men in family planning discussions, recognizing their role in deciding the number of children in a family.
- 🌾 Agricultural practices need to evolve to support the growing population, with a focus on increasing crop yields and adopting more sustainable farming methods.
- 🌱 International efforts are underway to develop hardier crop varieties that can withstand harsh conditions and improve food security across Africa.
- 🏭 Industrialization is seen as a key strategy for job creation and economic growth, with Ethiopia investing in industrial parks to attract foreign companies and create employment.
- 🚆 Infrastructure development, such as new railways and housing, is part of Ethiopia's ambitious plan to accommodate its growing population and spur economic development.
- 📊 The demographic dividend, where a large working-age population can drive economic growth, is a potential opportunity for African countries if managed correctly.
- 🌐 The global impact of Africa's population growth is a concern, with challenges such as migration, urban overcrowding, and potential increases in extremism linked to economic and social instability.
Q & A
What is the projected population of Africa by the year 2050?
-The population of Africa is set to double by the year 2050 to 2.5 billion people.
What challenges do young people moving from rural areas to urban centers face?
-Many young people moving from rural areas to urban centers end up in slums, and cities are struggling to cope with the influx, leading to issues such as unemployment and inadequate infrastructure.
How could an industrial revolution potentially impact African countries?
-An industrial revolution could transform African countries by lifting millions out of poverty every year and creating millions of jobs, thus reducing the number of idle youth and potential migrants.
What is the average number of children born per woman in Niger according to the script?
-The average number of children born per woman in Niger is 7.6, with some areas like Zinder having an even higher rate.
What is the 'husband school' and its purpose?
-The 'husband school' is an initiative where men are educated about the consequences of early marriage and having many children. It aims to change traditional views and reduce the birth rate.
What is the impact of high birth rates on a country's ability to provide for its citizens?
-High birth rates can make it impossible for a country to adequately feed, educate, and care for all its children, threatening the country's survival and potentially leading to social unrest and other issues.
What is the significance of the 'A/O' festival in Lagos?
-The A/O festival celebrates the historic old labor in the overcrowded urban slums of Lagos. It involves masquerades representing spirits of the dead, cleansing the city of evil, and praying for peace and prosperity.
How is Lagos addressing the issue of overcrowding and the need for more housing?
-Lagos is addressing overcrowding by encouraging vertical construction and creative financing to attract private investment into affordable housing, as well as urban planning strategies learned from other cities.
What is the role of the DNA profiling lab in Nairobi in improving agricultural productivity?
-The DNA profiling lab in Nairobi helps in identifying the best-performing strains of crops by understanding the genetic differences at the DNA level. This allows for the creation of superior plants that are high-yielding, drought-tolerant, and resistant to pests and diseases.
How is Ethiopia tackling its population growth and creating jobs for its young people?
-Ethiopia is building vast industrial parks across the country, investing in infrastructure, training a workforce, and attracting foreign companies to create jobs, thus harnessing the demographic dividend.
What challenges does Ethiopia face in its pursuit of economic growth and industrialization?
-Ethiopia faces challenges such as authoritarianism, lack of freedoms, and protests that were met with a heavy hand. Balancing economic growth with democratic values and ensuring sustainable development is a complex task.
Outlines
🌍 Africa's Population Growth and Urban Challenges
The script discusses the impending doubling of Africa's population by 2050, highlighting the migration of youth from rural areas to urban towns, leading to a surge in slum populations and cities struggling to accommodate the growth. It touches on the potential of an industrial revolution to alleviate poverty and the importance of addressing the high birth rates, particularly in Niger, where the average number of children per woman is 7.6. The script introduces initiatives like 'husband school' and 'safe space class' aimed at educating men and women about family planning and the consequences of early marriage and childbearing. It also presents personal stories illustrating the cultural shift towards having fewer children for healthier families and more opportunities.
🏙️ Urbanization and the Quest for Sustainable Solutions
This paragraph delves into the cultural preference for large families and the slow progress towards changing this tradition. It discusses the efforts to manage population growth, such as mobile clinics and contraceptive implants, and the impact of education on reducing birth rates. The script also addresses the broader implications of population growth on Africa's food security, education, and employment, with a focus on the potential 'youth dividend' and the risks of unemployment leading to issues like terrorism and immigration. The narrative includes stories of individuals migrating to cities like Lagos for a better life, facing the harsh realities of urban living and the city's efforts to manage the influx through creative solutions like vertical construction and affordable housing initiatives.
🌾 Agricultural Advancements and Food Security
The script focuses on the urgent need for increased agricultural productivity to feed Africa's growing population. It showcases Kenya's initiative to develop drought-resistant and nutrient-rich crops, such as millet and peas, and the use of DNA profiling to improve crop yields. The paragraph also highlights efforts to rekindle interest in traditional crops, promote modern farming techniques, and engage young people in agriculture through reality TV shows. The goal is to make farming appealing to the younger generation, thereby increasing food production and economic opportunities in rural areas.
🏭 Industrialization as a Path to Economic Growth
This section of the script explores Ethiopia's ambitious plan to transform its economy through industrialization. It describes the establishment of industrial parks to create jobs for the youth, attract foreign investment, and manufacture goods locally. The Ethiopian government's focus on infrastructure, education, and technology is emphasized, along with the challenges of balancing economic growth with democratic values and freedoms. The script also examines the role of China in Ethiopia's development and the potential for Ethiopia to serve as a model for other African countries facing similar population and economic challenges.
🌐 Africa's Demographic Shift and Global Impact
The final paragraph reflects on the broader implications of Africa's population explosion, considering the continent's capacity to provide for its people and the potential global impact. It discusses the necessity for aggressive policies and investments in infrastructure to harness the demographic dividend and create jobs. The script acknowledges the dilemmas between prioritizing economic growth versus democratic freedoms and suggests that growth can be a pathway to achieving democracy and freedom of speech. It concludes by emphasizing the importance of finding creative solutions to accommodate and employ the growing population, as the challenges and opportunities presented by this demographic shift will be felt worldwide.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Population Growth
💡Urban Migration
💡Slums
💡Industrial Revolution
💡Youth Unemployment
💡Birthrate
💡Family Planning
💡Husband School
💡Youth Dividend
💡Agricultural Revolution
💡Industrial Parks
Highlights
Africa's population is projected to double by 2050, posing significant challenges for urban infrastructure and social services.
Rapid urbanization has led to a surge in city slums, with cities struggling to accommodate the influx of people.
An 'industrial revolution' in Africa could potentially lift millions out of poverty by creating jobs and economic growth.
High youth unemployment could lead to increased migration and recruitment by extremist groups if not addressed.
In Niger, the average number of children born per woman is 7.6, with efforts underway to tackle high fertility rates.
The 'husband school' in Niger is an innovative approach to engage men in family planning discussions and decisions.
The importance of reducing child marriage and early pregnancies is emphasized to improve maternal and child health.
Lagos, Nigeria, illustrates the challenges of managing rapid urban growth with creative solutions needed for housing and infrastructure.
Efforts in Kenya are focused on improving agricultural productivity through better plant strains and farming techniques.
A reality TV show in Kenya aims to make farming attractive to young people, promoting it as a viable business opportunity.
Ethiopia's industrial parks are part of a strategy to create jobs and manage the country's demographic growth.
The Ethiopian government is investing heavily in infrastructure, education, and manufacturing to support economic growth.
The balance between economic growth and political freedom is a complex issue in Ethiopia's development.
Agricultural and industrial revolutions are key to managing Africa's population growth and ensuring food security.
The demographic dividend can be harnessed if Africa invests in its youth through education, jobs, and social development.
The impact of Africa's population growth will be felt globally, with implications for migration, economic development, and international relations.
Transcripts
[Music]
the population of Africa is set to
double by the year 2050 to two and a
half billion people the young are moving
from the countryside to the town's
[Music]
unfortunate divorce in the last two
three years is been a deluge but many
end up in slums and cities are
struggling to cope
an industrial revolution could transform
African countries and lift millions out
of poverty every year a census rolls
only to quit
20 20 million jobs every every was a
common indicates but idle youth could
mean millions more migrants and drive
many into the hands of Islamist
extremists and that is everyone's
problem there's nowhere in the world
where women have more children half the
girls here are married by 15 so it's not
surprising the children have children
[Music]
this is Xander in southern leisure on
the fringe of the Sahara Desert and not
far from Nigeria's northern border the
gyre is one of the world's poorest
countries it's mostly agricultural and
the average number of children born per
woman is 7.6 and in Xander it's a lot
higher than that so the government and
aid agencies are trying to do something
about it
tucked away out of earshot girls as
young as 10 talk about topics many
adults here consider taboo family
planning contraception early marriage
and even forced marriage three older
girls take the lead the aid workers who
have trained them call this the safe
space class sorrow too is 27 and has
four children one of the things we are
teaching girls here I is about early
marriage and the consequences of having
children before they are 18 during the
delivery a girl can lose her life or the
child could die
let me take a needy buy before this
program women had many many kids but
with the coming of this program the
number of children is really reducing
who decides how many children you should
have I had an Amiga hey my husband he
decides that and that's the crux of it
the husband's decide
and so they started the husband school
dad you said you if you give your
daughter away at 12 it could be a
disaster
the conversation is just as open on this
side of the village having fewer
children helps the woman to be able to
breastfeed properly before we learned
from this problem many of our kids
weren't healthy but now we don't have a
problem that's mad AHA Musa he's 27 and
is one of the more enthusiastic converts
to the fewer kids philosophy here his
wife Adisa have three children Danny can
get on get in Germany I come from a big
family
my father has three wives I have about
16 siblings I'm not actually sure how
many we are
but I think we are chastity and the idea
that more children means more hands to
help on the farm doesn't ring true with
Musa anymore Jameson she ate hoobat
wanna know if someone has ten children
only three or four of them are healthy
anyway so it's better to just have fun
that's better for work in the fields
yes yeah okay a woman when she doesn't
truly there is a problem here with
having too many children but now we have
been to husband school we know more we
can have a child and then wait for a
while before we have the next one even
if some people do change their minds and
decide to have fewer babies the dramatic
growth in population will take a long
time to slow down by 2050 the number of
people in the share will have way over
tripled from the 21 million it is today
the culture here is to have many many
children and traditions are hard to
shift
so you can look at you would on either
side you don't want to see a better but
this is the way to do it show them what
the options are at a mobile clinic
another case tackling taboos head-on and
from the crowd Nana Asia decides to have
a three-year contraceptive implant in
front of everyone saying she's had three
kids and she's happy with that for now
no money's hidden either so would also
not us I decided to do it in front of
everybody so that they can see how it's
done because before there was some kind
of rumors that while doing it it hurts
and they see themselves today it doesn't
hurt at all and it did persuade a few
skeptics Nana Aisha said her husband had
given her permission in fact it was his
idea he's educated she told me and he'd
heard the man from husband school
talking about it there's small steps
towards bringing the birthrate down
this population explosion matters across
Africa but more so in leisure all these
young people are a bonus if a country's
on the rise but can also be a burden la
longue meter is below the quantity up or
consequence in media the immediate
consequences of having such a high
birthrate is that it's impossible to
feed educate and care for all these
children in the short term in the long
term the very survival of the country is
threatened unless we take this window of
opportunity to make the most of this
youth dividend the dividend and putt
l'ensemble of this it could threaten the
survival of the country and encourage
different things like terrorism and
immigration there are few jobs in the
countryside on both sides of this border
between Nisha and northern Nigeria
Islamist group Boko Haram recruits idle
youth or they migrate north to Europe up
through Nazaire those who can head to
big urban areas from here in remote
gnocco village we followed one man who's
left to make it big in Lagos it's a
world trodden route from this quiet
rural village to the city mama de hielo
looked out Abdul Hameed family are
talking about the son and brother the
husband and father who left his wife and
one-year-old boy behind money to eat she
says so we had to send the boy to go and
look for money
he sends around a hundred dollars every
now and again which they used for the
farm and for food and clothes
quite a contrast moving from a village
of 7,000 people to Africa's largest city
this wasn't quite what looked up the
Hameed had in mind but optimism is
emblazoned across his chest
Wow initial Indian interest into a mark
but never like I thought it would be
easy but then I realized how much harder
it was to get one but you can't just sit
here without a joke so much in the one
summer I wants to buy answer to have a
shop in Carmel and to make enough money
to go back to school and get an
education every day thousands of people
arrive in Lagos Africa's largest city
looking for the same thing a new start
in life many end up in the slums
struggling to make a living
has always had that mixed
blessings of having to deal with the
influx of people unfortunately for us in
the last two three years it's been a
deluge
who wants other people to be here to
bring ideas to bring values to bring
innovation but we're just unable to deal
with it endlessly this is what an
African mega city looks like it's
crowded it's chaotic and it's crumbling
Lagos is already struggling to house to
look after and to educate the way over
21 million people already living here
let alone the millions more that are
predicted to crush into this city but
there's an incredible energy about the
place and it's a matter of tapping that
and using creative thinking to turn it
into an opportunity
[Music]
the a/o festival celebrates historic old
labor in the overcrowded urban slums
masquerades represent the spirits of the
Dead returned to cleanse the city of
evil and pray for peace and prosperity
emerging from the rusted tin roofs is
one answer to the AOS prayers building
up has no choice but to go on how
we're gonna go how we're going to
accommodate all the population we have
two more Latif Civello spent 25 years as
an urban planner in Los Angeles now he's
brought his skills home so now that we
are able to go vertical we are able to
reduce the overcrowding so it give us
the advantage of where the air space
which has been lost tower blocks aren't
a new idea and are expensive but Lagos
needs to renew without moving people out
one answer is creative financing to lure
private investment into affordable
housing so currently we are looking at
different areas we can come up with to
introduce some of the ideas that I
brought from Los Angeles and see which
one is applicable I use a bullet here
this is the other way to deal with slums
this was a total bomb a community
cleared in March despite a court order
protecting it many people fear they'll
be next
about 40 communities will be on added
threat of eviction and 300,000 people
will be rendered homeless eventually if
this action is carried out the moment
see demolish Islam naturally two three
stones will spring up because people
need beer to sleep there are two main
industries in these slums fishing and
dredging for building sand but the beach
is quiet the people say the security
forces came and smashed up the boats
I am very angry they destroyed my boat
and my husband's boats we have no money
and we've had to throw the children from
school the state government sites
security reasons and says people are
never forcibly removed but people here
think it just wants them out all on this
community were demolished so does the
buddha the rich would benefit from it so
i feel strongly that the state
government is interested in the land and
we're not going to give it giving the
basic reason is non grata to be honest
wit because the vassal government are
still that the waterfront communities
are prime land lagos will be a financial
hub for nigeria and there are big plans
for luxury waterfront living a vast area
has been reclaimed from the sea front
from at happen style development and
there are many other building projects
alright great so as you know when the
east end of the site and then between
nine locks house in the Hard Rock Cafe
we have the hotel that's being built
right here all on one of a is developing
a five hectare 100 million dollar site
Lagos has to balance a modern vision
against its growing inequality I think
the laws remain the super-rich and all
those remaining people just simply below
the poverty line
but the hope is that as you know over
the next few years you will see that gap
bridged
as more people get more jobs the only
way to manage a massively growing mega
city is to invest in infrastructure
whether it be power lines or rail lines
this will be Nigeria's first ever
electrical light railway system within
ten years they want six of these lines
crisscrossing the whole state keeping
Lagos on the move
but the city is outgrowing efforts to
house employ and serve its people we are
in an urban age and people are going to
keep coming so we just have to find more
creative ways to accommodate more people
[Music]
climate change drought and a doubling
population are already testing the
continents capacity to feed itself and
by 2050 a quarter of the world will be
Africans farming needs to be much more
productive Kenya is at the forefront of
a big international effort to create
better plants that produce more crops in
the harshest conditions smallholder
farms here could easily produce four
times as much food
semion doovy is one of the guinea-pigs
he's replaced most of his maize with a
mixture of what are thought of as
old-fashioned crops like millet and peas
which put nutrients back into the soil
ah yeah these days we are getting less
rain than we used to and when I plant
these crops
I know al-hafiz something unlike with
maize the millet and the pigeon peas
normally resists to the drought
he's also been given new improved plants
hybrids he's very happy with this piece
are bigger they're mature faster and I
can get two crops in a year rather than
one and that's where the science comes
in finding the best strains means
crossbreeding hundreds of plants to
isolate the traits they're looking for
what we're seeing right now is a finger
millet breeding where we're trying to
combine traits characteristics from
different plants into one plant so that
we end up with a superior plant that is
a limiter in high yielding drought
tolerant and resistance to major pests
and diseases but as well as being highly
nutritious
and this new DNA profiling lab in
Nairobi makes that process a lot quicker
this machine tries to understand the
differences at the DNA level in the
populations of 101 crops it's not
genetically modifying but by sequencing
varieties of 101 carefully chosen
traditional African food crops they can
go straight in to find the best
performing strains instead of a random
selection of hundreds of progeny we go
for selecting only those types which
contain the signatures from high yield
and the signatures for drought tolerance
but then nutritionists have to get
people excited about these crops in a
place where maize is everything and so
to cooking school in rural Kenya these
smart foods used to be staples in Kenya
before colonialism brought maize along
[Applause]
they're more drought resistant more
nutritious and pretty easy to rustle up
into all sorts of meals piece of the
chapati I got to there and this is the
pigeon pea stew right great on it goes a
little bit of everything
pigeon pea stew you first
[Laughter]
[Applause]
for young farmers from Kenya and
Tanzania have been chosen to put their
farming skills to the ultimate test the
other thing is to persuade young people
to stay on the farm this reality TV show
is Kenya's attempt to make farming cool
for a challenge over lifetime
particularly to Millennials otherwise
leaving the village for the city may
mean for business life it shows that
farming is a business that money can be
made and also helps older farmers up
their output making smallholding more
productive and profitable is one step
towards growing enough food but for the
demographic dividend to be cashed in
people need jobs agricultural revolution
is the precursor to industrial
revolution and here in Ethiopia there's
a grand plan the first Industrial Park
was built in Addis Ababa
but the biggest has just opened south of
the capital in Hawass a welcome ceremony
Ethiopia is flying high in Africa it has
the fastest growing economy albeit from
a low base and has become the darling of
international investors our founder Park
is a phenomenal project the architect of
this new industrial revolution is
meeting executives from some of the
world's biggest textile companies he
built it and they came
Ethiopian workers already have jobs
making the fabric putting the garments
together must have such an advantage on
me the pay isn't great she says but it's
not just about money but about building
a better future for her and for the
country Ethiopia's big solution to the
population explosion is putting its
young people to work they're building
these vast industrial parks across the
country putting an infrastructure
training up a workforce and attracting
foreign companies to make their shirts
and their skirts their suits on their
socks here rather than in Asia as in
much of Africa China has a hand in the
expansion and sees echoes of its own
dramatic growth curious all-woman
consulate with mission to Ethiopia
Ravana why did we choose Ethiopia it has
a stable political situation and a
peaceful society and is the second
biggest country in Africa without a
bigger population there is no market
[Music]
there's a huge amount of building going
on across Ethiopia the scale and
ambition is impressive row after row a
government built social housing a new
electric railway to whisk imports and
exports between the capital and the
coast perhaps the most visible sign of
Ethiopia's economic growth is its
airline it's been dramatically expanding
over the last ten years it's
government-owned
if you've been Airlines now flies to 96
cities around the world
what better advert for a country on the
rise we can learn from China that making
investment in the long term
infrastructure is quite important
population is growing by about five
percent so we need to create close to 1
million jobs every year so this is a big
challenge and manufacturing has
significant impact in job creation this
now provides an opportunity for what we
call the demographic dividend but
without having a policy very aggressive
and ambitious as the cheapest target
economic laws it will be difficult and
it will be a source of crisis
[Applause]
aggressive policies in Ethiopia Mena
heavy hand protests were crushed a state
of emergencies just ended there are
questions over authoritarianism and lack
of freedoms building democracy
sustaining requires efforts for many
generations and will cognize that and we
are going to put more effort despite the
achievements we have Ethiopia has also
built a lot of universities focusing now
on engineering and technology rather
than arts but what about the dilemma
what is more important is it going at
growth or is it freedom of speech the
democracy it's not like one is more
important than the other but definitely
economic growth is a means towards
democracy right it's a path for
democracy to path for freedom of speech
because if there's no education in the
country if people are so hungry what are
they going to speak about
industrialization isn't the only answer
to Africa's population explosion but
it's already creating dividends for
Ethiopia's economy if it gets the
balance right this could be a model to
put a continent to work and in much of
Africa that's a big ask in poor
countries likely share it seems the
economy won't come close to keeping up
with population growth in rich ones like
Nigeria it comes down to good thoughts
and good actions even if the speed and
scale of urban growth offers its own set
of challenges this African population
explosion is coming and its impact will
be felt across the globe for good or for
bad
[Music]
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