How to Predict Divorce With 95% Accuracy | Jordan Peterson

Summary

The video script delves into John Gottman's research on marital stability, highlighting his method of observing couples in a lab setting to predict divorce with remarkable accuracy. Gottman identifies two key phenomena: the 'eggshell' communication of couples destined for divorce, who appear calm but are physiologically aroused, and the importance of responding positively to each other's 'bids' for connection. Successful couples, according to Gottman, navigate underlying resentments and maintain a positive interaction pattern, fostering a well-structured and functional relationship dynamic.

Takeaways

• 🧪 Gottman's research uses a unique lab setup to study marital stability, predicting divorce with high accuracy.
• 🔮 Couples likely to divorce appear calm in conversation but show high physiological arousal, indicating underlying tension.
• 🚫 The calmness of these couples is described as 'walking on eggshells', suggesting a fragile peace rather than genuine communication.
• 🐾 Gottman identifies 'bids' as small attempts by one partner to share or connect, which are crucial for relationship health.
• 🤔 The physiological reactivity in troubled couples suggests unresolved issues and resentments that affect their interactions.
• 💔 A lack of response or a negative response to a partner's 'bid' can signal deeper relationship problems.
• 👥 Successful couples are those who respond positively to each other's bids, maintaining a generally positive interaction.
• 🤝 Positive responses to bids are indicative of a well-structured and functional relationship dynamic.
• 😐 The 'contempt noise' or subtle negative reactions can be a sign of underlying resentment and disorganization in the relationship.
• 🧐 The structure of the unconscious mind in a relationship is either well-organized and mutually understood or chaotic and conflicted.
• 🔍 Understanding the unconscious structure and addressing it can be key to resolving the 'horror underneath the surface' in a relationship.

Q & A

Who is Gottman, and what has he studied?

Gottman is a researcher who has conducted extensive studies on marital stability and couples' behavior. He has set up a lab where he observes couples over a weekend to predict whether they are likely to divorce.

How accurate is Gottman's prediction of divorce?

Gottman can predict whether a couple is going to divorce with 94-95% accuracy, which is highly impressive.

What physiological reactions do couples who are likely to divorce exhibit?

Couples likely to divorce often speak calmly, but their physiology indicates high arousal, similar to someone facing a predator. This suggests underlying tension and unresolved issues.

What does the metaphor of predator and prey suggest about unhappy couples?

The metaphor suggests that unhappy couples may view each other as adversaries, with their calm communication being more about preventing conflict than genuinely interacting.

What does Freud suggest is under the surface of a strained relationship?

Freud would suggest that what's under the surface of a strained relationship is the unconscious mind, where unresolved conflicts and emotions reside.

What example does the transcript give to illustrate Gottman's observations?

The transcript gives an example where a woman points out a cardinal outside the window. The husband's response options range from dismissive to engaging, reflecting underlying dynamics in the relationship.

What are the four possible responses the husband can have to the woman's comment about the bird?

The four responses are: dismissing the comment with contempt, going over to look at the bird, not showing contempt but acting it out, or responding positively and engaging with the comment.

What does a 'Freudian slip' reveal in the context of Gottman's observations?

A 'Freudian slip' in this context reveals underlying unresolved issues and resentment in the relationship, where small interactions are loaded with deeper conflicts.

What does Gottman mean by 'bids' in relationships?

Gottman refers to 'bids' as attempts by one partner to share something, even small positive things, with the other. Successful couples respond to these bids positively, which helps maintain a positive interaction pattern.

What distinguishes successful couples from those who are likely to divorce?

Successful couples respond positively to each other's bids and have worked through underlying issues, maintaining a functional and mutually agreed-upon structure in their relationship. In contrast, couples likely to divorce often have unresolved conflicts that manifest in negative physiological reactions and interactions.

Outlines

00:00

🔬 Gottman's Study on Marital Stability

The paragraph discusses John Gottman's research on marital stability. Gottman's lab, set up like a bed and breakfast, invites couples for a weekend where they are monitored physiologically. Gottman can predict divorce with 94-95% accuracy. He identified two key phenomena: the first is that couples headed for divorce communicate calmly but are physiologically aroused, akin to predator-prey interactions, using words to prevent conflict rather than communicate. The second phenomenon involves 'bids', where one partner tries to share a positive moment. The other partner's response can either be dismissive, indicating underlying resentment and unresolved issues, or supportive, which is characteristic of couples who maintain a positive relationship.

Keywords

💡Gottman Study

The Gottman Study refers to the research conducted by psychologist John Gottman, who is known for his work on marital stability and relationships. In the script, it's mentioned that Gottman set up a lab to observe couples' behavior and physiological responses, which allows him to predict with high accuracy whether a couple is likely to divorce. This study is central to the video's theme as it provides a scientific approach to understanding the dynamics of marital relationships.

💡Marital Stability

Marital stability refers to the enduring and harmonious nature of a marriage, which is the main focus of the Gottman Study. The script discusses how Gottman's research aims to understand the factors that contribute to the stability or instability of marriages, such as communication patterns and physiological responses during conflict. Marital stability is a key concept in the video as it is the ultimate outcome that Gottman's research seeks to predict and understand.

💡Physiological Reactivity

Physiological reactivity is the body's response to stress or emotional stimuli, which in the context of the script, is used to describe how couples react to each other during conflict. The video explains that couples who are physiologically reactive have heightened arousal levels, similar to how one would react to a predator, indicating a deep-seated tension or unresolved issues within the relationship.

💡Communication

Communication in the script is discussed in the context of how couples interact with each other, particularly during conflict. It's noted that couples who are on the path to divorce might communicate calmly on the surface, but their physiological responses suggest a lack of genuine communication and a defensive stance, akin to 'walking on eggshells.' Effective communication is a critical aspect of marital stability, and the video highlights how poor communication can be a sign of deeper issues.

💡Freudian Slip

A Freudian slip is an unintentional error in speech or action that is believed to reflect a person's unconscious mind. In the script, the term is used to describe how a partner might subtly express their true feelings or unresolved issues through non-verbal cues or indirect comments, such as a sigh when their spouse mentions a positive event. This concept is used to illustrate how underlying tensions can manifest in subtle ways, revealing the complexity of a couple's relationship.

💡Unconscious

The unconscious, as mentioned in the script, refers to the part of the mind that contains thoughts, feelings, and memories of which a person is not aware. It is suggested that what lies beneath the surface of calm communication in troubled relationships is a disorganized and twisted unconscious, filled with unresolved issues and resentments. The concept is integral to understanding the dynamics of conflict and the potential for marital breakdown.

💡Hierarchy

Hierarchy, in the context of the script, refers to the underlying structure of a relationship, which can be either well-organized and functional or disorganized and twisted. The video suggests that the health of a relationship depends on the structure of the unconscious, which can be seen as a hierarchy of needs, desires, and conflicts that either support or undermine the relationship.

💡Bids

Bids, as used in the script, are attempts by one partner to engage with the other, often through sharing positive or trivial daily events. The video explains that how a partner responds to these bids is indicative of the health of the relationship. Couples who are able to positively respond to each other's bids maintain a positive interaction pattern, which is a sign of a stable and healthy marriage.

💡Resentment

Resentment is a feeling of persistent ill-will or indignation towards someone, which the script suggests can accumulate in a relationship and affect how couples interact. The video describes how unresolved resentments can lead to a lack of positive responses to bids and contribute to physiological reactivity, indicating a deeper issue within the relationship.

💡Positive Interactions

Positive interactions are moments of connection and shared positivity between partners, which the script highlights as crucial for maintaining marital stability. The video explains that couples who stay together are those who can respond positively to each other's bids, creating a cycle of positivity that reinforces the relationship.

Highlights

Gottman's study on marital stability involves setting up a lab resembling a bed and breakfast to monitor couples' behavior.

Couples are wired physiologically to monitor their reactivity, aiding in predicting divorce with 94-95% accuracy.

Couples destined for divorce appear calm in conversation but exhibit high physiological arousal, akin to predator-prey interactions.

Unhappy couples use words to prevent conflict rather than to communicate, maintaining a surface-level calm.

Freudian slips reveal underlying issues and hierarchies within a couple's relationship.

Gottman observes a 'two by two matrix' of potential responses to a partner's trivial positive share.

A partner's response to a shared positive moment can indicate underlying resentment or contempt.

Contemptuous responses can subtly communicate deep-seated resentments without direct confrontation.

Physiological reactions like increased heart rate can indicate a partner's true feelings despite attempts to hide them.

Successful couples are those who respond positively to each other's 'bids' or attempts to share positive moments.

Positive interactions between couples are a result of resolving underlying issues and resentments.

The structure of the unconscious mind is either well-organized and functional or disorganized and problematic.

Understanding the structure of the unconscious is key to resolving conflicts and maintaining a healthy relationship.

Gottman's findings suggest that communication and conflict resolution are crucial for marital stability.

The study highlights the importance of recognizing and addressing the 'monster' of disorganization within a relationship.

Couples who are physiologically reactive to each other often have unresolved issues lurking beneath the surface.

Gottman's research provides insights into the dynamics of couples' interactions and the factors contributing to marital stability or breakdown.

Transcripts

I was reading a gortman study the other

day on marital stability gottman has

done some really good analysis of

couples Behavior he has set up a lab

that's basically a bed and breakfast and

he brings couples in there for a weekend

and he wires them up physiologically and

monitors their reactivity and so what

he's he can predict whether a couple is

going to divorce with 95 94 accuracy

it's like impressive so what has he

found

he's found two categories of

he's identified two phenomena that are

very much worth knowing the first is

that

the couples who are going to get

divorced

they come into the bed and breakfast and

they speak with each other quite calmly

but it's more walking on eggs Carl

and while they're speaking with each

other calmly their physiology is like

they're very aroused and so they're sort

of aroused like someone who's facing a

predator so you might think of an

unhappy couple as predator and prey to

each other and so the words are there

mostly to stop predatory activity not to

actually communicate anything it's just

to keep the surface calm so then you

might think well what's under the

surface and what's under the surface so

Freud would say it's what's under the

surface is unconscious

and but you can say well what's under

the surface is one of these hierarchies

that's all banged up and twisted and and

not in reasonable shape and so people

don't want to open the door to that so

but they do this is a Freudian slip so

let's say this is goes to the second

part of gottman's observations

so

the woman goes over to the window and

she says oh look there's a cardinal

outside you know Cardinals that bright

red bird they're kind of cool looking

you know it's kind of a trivial thing in

some sense but by the same token it's

like it's a little positive thing and

you know 20 of them in a day is good

thing okay so then the uh the partner

the husband in this example has a two by

two Matrix of choices

one is who the hell cares about your

stupid bird okay so that's one the

second one is

then you go over and look at the bird

right and the third one is

you don't make the contempt noise but

you act it out and the fourth one is you

go over there like a civilized human

being and you know and that you're

interacting with someone that you care

for and you take a look at the damn bird

and you're happy about it and it and

that's as truthful and real as you can

manage Okay so

be

option that's a Freudian slip

right because what it says there's a

whole monster underneath that and the

monster is

all the disorganization in this entire

structure it's like the might be

we have been tormenting each other about

various things for the last 10 years and

none of them are resolved and I'm not

very happy about you for so many reasons

I can't even remember all of them and I

can't enumerate them right now because

that would take forever and maybe we

would have a huge fight but by the same

token I'm not going to come over there

and make you happy with your stupid bird

and I'm going to indicate that subtly so

you can't call me a son of a

because I'm just sighing and that's what

I'll say if you do ask me but I'm going

to load all that up and I'm going to

deliver it to you and what's going to

happen to you is because you're smart as

your heart rate's going to go way up

like you're being attacked and the

reason for that is you are

so what the good couples do the couples

that you know stay together is they

respond to each other's bids he calls

them bids and so if one person wants to

share some little trivial daily positive

thing with the other the other you know

isn't carrying around a bloody cart load

of resentment

and is able to respond to that in a

positive way and that way the general

interactions between the couples stay

positive but that's also because they've

worked this out

now you know it's got to be because they

work it out because the couples who are

physiologically reactive to each other

they're communicating but there's all

sorts of horror underneath the surface

and we're trying to figure out what is

it that's underneath the surface what's

the structure of the unconscious

well that's the structure of the

unconscious and it's either well

structured and functional and mutually

agreed upon and as explicit as possible

or it's this constantly