【專題演講】川普2.0時代即將展開！美國新總統對未來美國時代與全球的衝擊｜約瑟夫・奈伊 哈佛大學傑出榮譽教授

Summary

In the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, the speaker explores the impact of a potential second Trump presidency on global politics, particularly focusing on Europe, Asia, and Taiwan. While Trump’s policies are inherently unpredictable, key issues such as NATO, the war in Ukraine, U.S.-China trade relations, and Taiwan’s security are examined. The speaker argues that while Trump may increase pressure on Europe and maintain a transactional approach in Asia, America’s long-term strategic advantages, such as its alliances, geography, and economic strength, position the U.S. favorably in global power competition.

Takeaways

• 😀 Trump’s victory in the American presidential election creates significant uncertainty due to his unpredictable nature and the lack of clarity about his future advisors.
• 😀 There will be more change in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe than toward Asia, with Europe facing potential instability, particularly regarding NATO and defense spending.
• 😀 Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine is likely to result in a weaker bargaining position for Ukraine, as he may pressure Zelensky into more compromises through reduced U.S. aid.
• 😀 The U.S. will continue to prioritize its NATO commitments, but Trump may demand higher defense spending from European allies and could reconsider troop deployments in Europe.
• 😀 In contrast to Europe, U.S. policy toward Asia will likely see more continuity, with great power competition between the U.S. and China remaining a central focus.
• 😀 The U.S. is in a strong position relative to China in the great power competition due to factors like favorable geography, a growing labor force, higher productivity, and technological leadership.
• 😀 The U.S. dollar remains the primary global reserve currency, and American financial systems are likely to maintain their dominance over China’s Renminbi.
• 😀 U.S. soft power may weaken under Trump, particularly with policies like pulling out of the Paris Climate Accords, but it will not be destroyed, as more countries still find the U.S. attractive than China.
• 😀 The U.S.'s alliances will remain strong but may experience more friction under Trump’s transactional approach to foreign relations, requiring countries like Japan and South Korea to contribute more to the cost of U.S. military presence.
• 😀 Trump's policy toward Taiwan remains unclear, but the U.S. will likely continue arms sales to Taiwan while maintaining the One China policy, aiming to ensure Taiwan’s de facto independence without provoking China.
• 😀 The U.S. strategy for Taiwan will likely focus on providing military capabilities that make it difficult for China to invade, such as mobile shore-to-ship missiles, instead of advanced equipment vulnerable to preemptive strikes.

Q & A

What is the central theme of the speaker's analysis regarding Trump's 2024 presidency?

The central theme of the speaker's analysis is the unpredictability of Trump's foreign policy, particularly in relation to his approach to Europe, Asia, and Taiwan, and the significant challenges that arise from his potential policy shifts.

How does the speaker compare the potential impact of a Trump vs. Harris administration on U.S. foreign policy?

The speaker suggests that a Harris administration would bring more continuity to U.S. foreign policy, while Trump's unpredictability, especially regarding his advisors and policy shifts, makes it difficult to predict exact outcomes.

What impact does the speaker foresee on NATO under Trump's presidency?

The speaker predicts that Trump will likely pressure NATO members to increase defense spending beyond the current 2% of GDP requirement, and his previously suggested withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe could destabilize relations within the alliance.

What are the key differences between the U.S. and China in terms of geopolitical advantages, according to the speaker?

The U.S. has several advantages over China, including geographic isolation with two oceans and friendly neighbors, a growing labor force, higher productivity, technological leadership (particularly in AI), a dominant financial system, stronger soft power, and a network of powerful alliances.

What role does technology play in the U.S.-China competition, according to the speaker?

Technology is a significant factor in the U.S.-China competition. The U.S. leads in areas such as artificial intelligence and research output, with American universities ranked higher than Chinese ones. The speaker suggests that the U.S. will continue to maintain its technological edge, though there may be some policy shifts under Trump regarding technology exports.

What does the speaker say about the potential for a U.S.-China trade war under Trump's leadership?

While Trump favors tariffs as part of his mercantilist approach, the speaker hopes that this won't escalate into a full-scale trade war. However, the imposition of tariffs is expected to continue, and their impact on global trade, particularly in Asia, will be significant.

How does the speaker view the U.S. dollar's position in global finance relative to China?

The speaker believes that the U.S. dollar will maintain its position as the world's primary reserve currency, given the U.S.'s deep capital markets and rule of law, whereas China's currency, the renminbi, will not challenge this dominance in the near future.

What is Trump's likely stance on Taiwan, according to the speaker?

The speaker suggests that Trump's approach to Taiwan will be more transactional, with a focus on tariffs and technology sales to China. He will likely maintain the One China policy but continue to provide arms to Taiwan for defense, possibly focusing on military equipment that would make Taiwan harder to invade.

What is the significance of the 'porcupine' strategy for Taiwan, mentioned by the speaker?

The 'porcupine' strategy refers to making Taiwan difficult for China to invade by equipping it with defensive military capabilities, such as mobile shore-to-ship missiles, which could deter China by making an invasion costly and complex.

How does the speaker assess the long-term outlook of the U.S.-China power competition?

The speaker is optimistic about the U.S.'s ability to prevail in the long-term competition with China, citing advantages in geography, demographics, productivity, and alliances. Despite potential policy shifts under Trump, the U.S. is expected to maintain its global leadership role.