Will the war in Ukraine worsen global food shortages? | Inside Story
Summary
TLDRThe war in Ukraine has caused a dramatic increase in global food and fuel prices, affecting 1.7 billion people, particularly in developing countries. Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers of wheat, barley, and sunflower oil, and the conflict has disrupted these supplies. The UN warns of a 'perfect storm' of crises, including food, energy, and finance, exacerbating existing challenges from climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation could lead to social unrest and calls for collective global action to address the crisis.
Takeaways
- 🌏 The war in Ukraine is exacerbating global crises, particularly affecting developing countries due to the disruption in food and fuel supplies.
- 📈 Russia and Ukraine are significant suppliers of wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower oil, and the war has driven up prices for these staples to record highs.
- 🚜 Disruptions in fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus, who account for about one-fifth of global exports, have more than doubled their prices.
- 🌾 Eastern Africa, for instance, sources approximately 90% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, making it vulnerable to price shocks and supply uncertainties.
- 📊 Food prices are up by 34% compared to last year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, impacting billions of people worldwide.
- 📈 Crude oil prices have risen by 60% compared to last year, further straining economies and increasing costs for developing countries.
- 🌐 The conflict is causing a three-dimensional crisis involving food, energy, and finance, which is hitting vulnerable populations and economies hard.
- 🌿 Climate change is also a significant factor contributing to the food crisis, with droughts and floods affecting food production in many regions.
- 💸 The economic impact of the war is delaying global recovery from the pandemic, with inflationary pressures expected to worsen.
- 🌱 The uncertainty in the global food supply and rising fertilizer prices threaten food production, potentially leading to food shortages and increased hunger.
- 🏦 The crisis could lead to social unrest, as high food prices were a trigger for past conflicts and can force people into negative coping mechanisms.
Q & A
What is being referred to as a 'perfect storm of crises' for developing countries?
-The war in Ukraine is creating a 'perfect storm of crises' for developing countries by driving up global food and fuel prices, which could potentially lead to hunger for 1.7 billion people.
Why are Russia and Ukraine significant in the global food supply?
-Russia and Ukraine are major food suppliers, producing about 30% of the world's wheat and barley. They also grow significant amounts of maize and sunflower oil that developing nations depend on.
How have food prices been affected since the beginning of the war in Ukraine?
-Food prices have reached record highs since the war began in February, with prices for staple items like wheat increasing by 34% compared to the previous year.
What is the impact of the conflict and western sanctions on fertilizer exports?
-The conflict and western sanctions have disrupted fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus, causing their prices to more than double.
How does the war in Ukraine affect global oil and gas prices?
-Global oil and gas prices have increased due to the war, as countries limit transactions with Russia, leading to a 40% increase in oil prices this year.
What challenges are developing countries already facing that are exacerbated by the war in Ukraine?
-Developing countries are already struggling with challenges such as climate change, which has caused droughts and floods in regions like Eastern Africa, leading to a hunger crisis.
What is the potential economic impact of the war in Ukraine on the global economy?
-The war could delay the global economic recovery from the pandemic, increase inflationary pressures, and lead to a potential global recession, especially if Russian gas supplies to Europe are disrupted.
How might the war in Ukraine affect investment in emerging markets?
-Investors may become more wary of investing in emerging markets due to the increased uncertainty and potential for economic disruption caused by the war.
What is the concern regarding the potential for social unrest due to the current crises?
-There is a concern that the rising food prices and economic hardships could lead to social unrest, as has been seen in the past with events like the Arab Spring, which were triggered by food price increases.
What measures are suggested to address the crises caused by the war in Ukraine?
-Collective measures by all countries, including Russia, are needed to ensure uninterrupted food supplies to developing countries. Additionally, addressing the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and supporting the Ukrainian people is crucial.
How long might it take for global food supply and prices to return to pre-pandemic levels after the war ends?
-It is unlikely that global food supply and prices will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, as the war has caused long-lasting disruptions to supply routes and trade dynamics.
Outlines
🌎 Global Impact of the Ukraine War
The paragraph discusses the profound effects of the war in Ukraine on the global scale, particularly on developing countries. It highlights the 'perfect storm' of crises caused by the conflict, including increased food and fuel prices, which could potentially lead to hunger for 1.7 billion people. The conversation emphasizes the importance of Russia and Ukraine as major suppliers of food and energy, with the war disrupting their exports and causing prices for staples like wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower oil to soar. The U.N. warns of a three-dimensional crisis involving food, energy, and finance, exacerbating existing struggles in developing nations. The guests include experts in food markets, development, and humanitarian aid, who discuss the immediate and long-term implications of the crisis.
📉 Economic Ramifications and Food Insecurity
This section delves into the economic repercussions of the war, with a focus on how it has worsened global food insecurity. The discussion points out that the global economy was already fragile due to the pandemic, and the war has only added to these pressures, delaying recovery. The conflict's impact on energy prices is noted, with a 40% increase in oil prices due to potential disruptions in Russian gas supplies. The conversation also addresses the significant rise in wheat prices, the importance of the planting season in Russia and Ukraine, and the potential for minimal exports from Ukraine, leading to global shortages. The panelists express concern about the long-term effects on food inflation and the global economy.
🌾 Disruptions in Agriculture and Fertilizer Markets
The paragraph focuses on the agricultural implications of the war in Ukraine, especially the disruption in the global fertilizer market. Russia's role as a major exporter of fertilizers is highlighted, and the potential impacts of trade disruptions and rising gas prices on fertilizer production are discussed. The conversation underscores the uncertainty surrounding supply and the need for importing countries to find alternative sources or face high prices. The panelists also discuss the broader geopolitical issues, infrastructure damage in Ukraine, and the challenges of predicting grain exports to the world market. The potential for social unrest due to food price increases is also mentioned, drawing parallels to past events like the Arab Spring.
💸 Struggles of Developing Economies and Debt
This section addresses the challenges faced by developing economies in the context of the war in Ukraine, particularly regarding debt financing. The discussion notes that many developing countries are already struggling with debt related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the economic outlook is grim. The potential for debt default, as seen with Russia and Sri Lanka, is highlighted as a concern for investors, leading to a more conservative stance and reluctance to invest in developing economies. The panelists emphasize the need for a collective approach to address the crises and the importance of ensuring uninterrupted food supplies for developing countries.
🌱 Sustainable Food Systems and Global Interconnectedness
The final paragraph discusses the need for sustainable food systems and the importance of global interconnectedness in addressing the crises. The conversation recognizes that while the Ukraine crisis has a significant global impact, other crises such as those in Yemen, Afghanistan, and South Sudan also demand attention. The panelists discuss the multiplier effects of economic shocks on food systems and the need to learn from these crises to build more resilient mechanisms. The conversation also touches on the potential for social unrest due to food price increases and the importance of considering the global ripple effects of such crises.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Perfect storm
💡Developing countries
💡Food and fuel prices
💡Sanctions
💡Climate change
💡Food security
💡Fertilizer
💡Global economy
💡Inflation
💡Investment
💡Debt servicing
Highlights
The war in Ukraine is creating a 'perfect storm of crises' for developing countries, according to the U.N.
Global food and fuel prices have risen dramatically due to the conflict.
1.7 billion people could face hunger as a result of the war's impact on food supplies.
Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower oil.
Food prices have reached record highs since the war began in February.
Western sanctions have disrupted fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus.
The war is exacerbating a three-dimensional crisis involving food, energy, and finance.
Developing countries are struggling with challenges not of their own making.
Russia and Ukraine produce about 30% of the world's wheat and barley.
At least 36 nations get the majority of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
Food prices are up 34% compared to last year, the highest levels ever recorded.
Crude oil prices have risen 60% compared to last year.
Russia and Belarus exported roughly one-fifth of the world's fertilizers.
Fertilizer prices have more than doubled.
The situation is dire and becoming more so, with 30 million people facing a hunger crisis in Eastern Africa alone.
Approximately 90% of wheat in Eastern Africa is sourced from Ukraine and Russia.
Food prices in Eastern Africa have increased by over 20% in recent months.
The global economy was already fragile due to the pandemic before the war in Ukraine.
The conflict will delay global economic recovery and increase inflationary pressures.
Energy prices are directly impacted by the conflict, with a 40% increase in oil prices this year.
The planting season in Ukraine is directly in the conflict zone, which could lead to minimal exports and shortages.
Fertilizer prices are rising due to input prices of gas and energy, impacting global food production.
Investors are becoming more wary of investing in emerging markets due to the crisis.
Developing countries are struggling with debt financing related to the coronavirus pandemic.
Even if the war were to end tomorrow, it would take time for global food supply and prices to recover.
The crisis hasn't even begun, and the real crisis is still to come.
The international community needs to look at the ripple effects of crises and support developing countries.
The situation threatens to turn into social unrest due to the perfect storm of variables.
Transcripts
the war in ukraine is creating what the
u.n calls a perfect storm of crises for
developing countries
fighting has driven up global food and
fuel prices 1.7 billion people could go
hungry so what are the solutions
this is inside story
[Music]
[Music]
hello and welcome to the program i'm
muhammad zhum russia's invasion of
ukraine has upended the flow of food
fuel and money around the world the u.n
warns the conflict's cascading effects
could have an impact on nearly 1.7
billion people that's because russia and
ukraine are major food and energy
suppliers
they grow much of the wheat barley maize
and sunflower oil that developing
nations depend on
prices for these staple items have
reached record highs since february when
the war began
the conflict and western sanctions have
also disrupted fertilizer exports from
russia and belarus global oil and gas
prices are up as well as countries limit
transactions with russia
the war is supercharging a
three-dimensional crisis food energy and
finance
that is pummeling some of the world's
most vulnerable people countries and
economies
and all these comes at a time when
developing countries are already
struggling
with the slate of challenges not of
their making
russia and ukraine produce about 30
percent of the world's wheat and barley
the u.n says at least 36 nations
including some of the poorest get the
majority of their wheat from them
food prices are up 34 compared to last
year the highest levels ever recorded by
the u.n food and agriculture
organization
crude oil prices have risen 60 compared
to last year
russia and belarus also exported roughly
one-fifth of the world's fertilizers and
their prices have more than doubled
all right let's go ahead and bring in
our guests in asergi italy abdulreza
abbasian a senior food market analyst
and a former senior economist with the
u.n food and agriculture organization
in johannesburg parven nagala a
development and humanitarian specialist
and a regional director at oxfam for
horn east and central africa
in london chris wiefer a specialist in
emerging markets and chief executive
officer of macro advisory a strategic
consultancy focused on russia and
eurasia a warm welcome to you all and
thanks so much for joining us today on
inside story parvin let me start with
you today oxfam published a report this
week saying over a quarter of a billion
more people could crash into extreme
levels of poverty in 2022 because of
covet 19 rising global inequality and
the shock of food price rises
supercharged by the war in ukraine just
how much more dire could this situation
get
the situation as we see it um
really indeed is becoming more dire and
what i can reference and i really want
to appreciate the opportunity to be able
to reflect on this especially coming
from the horn eastern central africa
region in eastern africa at the moment
we have approximately
30 million people who are
facing a hunger crisis because of
various factors one of which is the
climate change crisis
that cuts across the region and in this
case we are seeing it manifested in the
form of drought in certain countries
such as ethiopia somalia uh kenya but
also you know other climate uh change
manifestations in the form of
floods in south sudan so this has a
multiplier effect for us on the
continent in terms of how it's bearing
and featuring in terms of the hunger
crisis and as we talk about the ukraine
crisis we are seeing it reflected in the
form of the food prices as a quick uh
reference what we do note in eastern
africa region is at the moment
approximately 90 percent of the wheat is
sourced from
ukraine and russia and over the last
couple of months and we know that
there's going to be more we've seen
increases in terms of food prices to
over 20 percent and that is a major
concern for us because not only are we
seeing climate change the drought you
know uh floods resulting in a hunger
crisis but also the the the prices you
know mean that there are even more
people who will not have access to the
food that they they they need the other
one you have mentioned indeed is about
conflict you know we've had a
conflict in various parts of the
continent and that becomes a compounding
factor for us not to mention how much
the ukraine crisis also plays into the
dynamics
chris the world economy was already in a
pretty tough state due to the pandemic
how much worse has the war in ukraine
made things
yeah as you say the the global economy
was pretty fragile at the start this
year starting a recovery uh from two
years to pandemic uh and then there's
absolutely no doubt that this conflict
and the consequences of this conflict uh
will add to those pressures and will
delay the recovery and uh previous
speakers already talked about the
inflationary pressures and it looks it
absolutely that those pressures will get
worse uh as we go through uh this year
and probably into into next year um so
and that would have an impact on the
global economy so if we look at
energy prices of course that are
directly impacted by by the conflict uh
the potential that there could be a
reduction in say russian oil or gas
supplies that's already led to a 40
percent increase in the oil price
this year and and looks like the
sanctions may even press that price
higher but the real impact i think of
the global economy will be in the area
of food so
again we've already mentioned wheat that
price of wheat is up 45 since beginning
this year uh this is now planting season
uh in russia ukraine uh there's no
reason to assume any disruption in
russia planting because it's well away
from the conflict zone but the ukraine
uh planting area is directly in the
conflict zone so if that planting season
does not go ahead and right now it looks
like it is not then you're we're likely
to have uh minimal exports from ukraine
in terms of wheat and other critical
grains at the end of this year and
therefore you're likely to have
shortages uh particularly of wheat
therefore leading to flour um as well as
some other other
products later this year and then the
other area of course in terms of global
food is of course
russia ukraine belarus this area is a
big supplier of fertilizers of potash
which is used around the world in in
asia in india and africa uh they source
a lot of population fertilizer from
russia belarus ukraine and the prices of
those product because of the input
prices of gas and energy will also rise
so no matter how you look at it we've
had a bad start of the year in terms of
food inflation it very much looks like
it's going to get worse uh over the rest
of this year and coming into 2023.
abdul reza um you heard there parvin and
chris both speak about the fact that
even before the war global food prices
were already spiking um there were
several factors that caused that uh some
of them include the coronavirus pandemic
as well as climate change there's other
factors as well how much has the war in
ukraine exacerbated all of this
well it's very difficult to put a sort
of a tag or a price tag or something
beyond that but uh obviously it has
raised the premium risk
quite substantially
markets were tight already and the there
was no expectation that in the current
kind of a climate that we were before
that is prices rising almost every month
for the past 12 months for the previous
12 months before the war started that we
would get ourselves into this sort of a
problem and not just anywhere but where
a lot of a lot of the world grain is uh
is sourced uh if you take for example
wfp alone it takes a lot of its grain
from ukraine and now it has to look to
the resources or pay high prices so
basically what we have what we have
today is that um
uh there is a there is
it added to the uncertainty about the
supply
both short term and near term and also
it um it brought back again a lot of a
lot of issues with geopolitics um about
the the shipment uh not to mention the
infrastructure damage uh especially uh
or primarily in ukraine
which makes it almost impossible to
predict when and how much of the ukraine
grain is going to make it to the world
market so all of that means that uh for
if you are an importing country uh you
you would need to source uh somewhere
else you need to go for plan b
and that means you know you have to rely
on uh good weather this year if the
harvests
will start soon uh hopefully at least
for wheat uh right now current
indications are not so bad the rest of
the world
but you know we are in the
climate change
situation year after year so nothing can
be certain before it's actually been
harvested
can i also follow up with you about
something that chris mentioned he was
talking about the issue when it comes to
fertilizer now i mean it's not just
wheat we have to talk about fertilizer
prices that are also spiking what kind
of overall impact is that going to have
well huge uh in fact the the fertilizer
issue uh
he already made headlines uh going back
to last june so it's not a new problem
now you have an addition uh additional
issue with fertilizer which is that
russia is the big exporter of it so
obviously we have to see how how trade
and fertilizer would be affected
and then is the issue of the gas which
you need to import to produce the
fertilizer and that again is a huge
issue now um it definitely adds to the
cost now if you are a very efficient
producer and you could somehow also
benefit from these high prices
you will make sure that your margins are
still very healthy you would pay for
those high prices assuming even if you
find it because as i said there is also
issue of this supply so it's just a one
huge new added uncertainty on top of all
the other things that we had to worry
about uh parven i saw you nodding along
to what abdelreza was saying so i'm
going to let you jump in because i want
to get your take on this as well i mean
the more that fertilizer prices rise the
harder it's going to be to farm right
yes it's true and i think there's two
points that i would highlight with
regards to that one is the issue of
price when we look at uh the african
farmers you know more often than not for
instance in the eastern africa region
we're talking about smallholder farmers
many of whom are women now um if that's
the case when you're talking about price
who is going to be most impacted and
then it also becomes my second point
what are the mechanisms in terms of
being able to support this smallholder
farmers to be able to both sustain
themselves but also look at what is
their future so it has that multiplier
effect uh like we call it on one hand in
terms of immediate needs but also means
on the long term if they don't have
access to the to the fertilizer it has
an impact on uh their production and
subsequently impacts their livelihood so
the price element is just one part of it
but also looking at the type of
communities that you're talking about
many of whom are small-scale farmers
that don't have uh really good coping
mechanisms and as such we would have to
look at what are the mechanisms that
might need to be put in place to support
them both on the long term but also on
accessing
fertilizer chris um what kind of effect
is all of this having on investors are
they now more wary
about the possibility of investing in
emerging markets is that one of the
effects here
yeah it is uh i mean we talked about the
the impact of people people's lives and
and living in emerging markets and the
rising cost of food but you know the
development of any emerging market
requires capital it requires investment
and essentially requires the movement of
capital from developed economies
into developing economies and you know
we saw that slowing down because of
coronavirus uh investors in in the big
developed economies start to become more
risk averse which means that they would
put their money somewhere safe you know
largely in dollar based assets in
developed economies uh and not taking
risks in developing uh economies and now
this uh situation uh will exacerbate
that i think the the global concern you
talked about and more far
we really have no idea in terms of what
happens next uh critically for example
you asked earlier about the impact of
global economy we talked about food but
you know the the critical uh supply
is is gas uh
much of europe is is is critically
dependent on russian gas and no matter
about what the political sentiment is
the reality is that europe simply cannot
get that gas from anywhere else and it
certainly would not even have a chance
of getting that gas from anywhere else
uh for about five or six years minimum
and with huge investments so
that's if that gas were to be disrupted
you would have industrial uh disruption
in europe you would have a recession in
some european countries and therefore
you'd have a global recession and the
reason i mentioned that is because it's
a huge uncertainty that investors are
aware of and therefore it certainly does
lead to a reluctance by big investment
funds to start taking risks so long as
there is this uncertainty over the
global economy uh they tend to be more
conservative about where they put their
money and unfortunately that means it
usually leads to a reduction in the
amount of money that's available for
developing economies and that makes
their situation even worse so i'm afraid
it is something of a perfect storm right
that we're now looking at which started
with coronavirus and has been
exacerbated with the uncertainty that's
now hanging over the ukraine russia
conflict and uh yeah so yeah the
situation does not look good if i could
just follow up with you as well um when
it comes to the developing economies
these developing countries that are
already struggling with debt financing
related to the coronavirus pandemic i
mean the economic outlook for these
countries
really couldn't be looking much worse
right now could they
no uh it looks pretty bad uh there's
unfortunately if you're an investment
strategist looking at a case for
investing in in most developing
economies it's very hard to see
as an asset class it simply isn't there
right now and then one other factor of
course is we're now talking about debt
default possibility from russia uh for
technical reasons but it doesn't matter
once you start getting a technic a debt
default and we had one last week from
sri lanka that also adds to
uh the more conservative stance by by
investors and they become a lot more
wary of uh of particularly of developing
economy risk uh uh and and therefore
adds to reluctance to to to to invest so
yeah i mean unfortunately it's very
difficult to look at the developing
economy as a class right now and say
this is a good time to invest everything
sensible tells you not to uh and to wait
and unfortunately that waiting is going
to make the situation uh significantly
worse for a lot of developing economies
that need capital at this stage and they
won't get it
i guess one of the well something else
that's really concerning people is even
if the war were to end tomorrow
and there's no telling how much longer
this war will go on but even if it were
to come to a sudden end it would still
take quite a long time for things to get
back to
pre-pandemic levels when it comes to
global food supply and prices right
frankly i think we will never go back to
the pre-pandemic level um
or let me correct me
in terms of overall supply you may but
the supplies probably the supply routes
will will be very different
i think we need to give market time to
to channel to find new new routes i
would say because uh obviously this is
not just a war between russia and
ukraine it's it's a unfortunately
something like a drawing line uh quite a
quite an extensive uh division of our
planet i guess so we're going to get
we're going to get a little bit of what
we used to have uh during the cold war
in a sense so uh are we going to have
different type of countries one side or
another friends and foes and so forth so
i think that uh
eventually trade will sort it all out
but as uh um the other colleague was
saying in terms of we needed the time
for for
uh you know the changes in europe
to adjust to the new new new world with
gas not coming from russia or what else
uh also for food flows we're going to
wait a couple of years i think before we
settle down with this new world order
and this is most unfortunate especially
for the poorest uh countries and the
developing countries which are
struggling um frankly i i don't know
what sort of solution uh could be
presented there uh but my wish is that
the the richer world would just uh you
know try to not just think about itself
as it did in the case of kobe which is
very shameful but that when it comes to
food uh they would really start coming
up with solid proposals that would at
least cushion the poorer countries for
for the very bumpy years that is going
to definitely be ahead of us to me the
crisis that you're talking about today
hasn't even begun so the real crisis is
still has to come
and
i mean
do you have any idea on what it would
take to solve any of these crises like
what could be done
well had i or would anybody at this
point i think this is this more than
anything else requires a collective
measure by the by all the countries by
all the leaders including
russia
i i think that i've been in this
business for 30 years and i have not
seen a situation like this
confronting at least the food sector
where there are also other crisis going
on at the same time so uh we do need
some exceptional um i guess uh measures
in this in this in this case and i think
that uh
when it comes to food
you would expect
especially countries like china like
russia to come along with the rest of
the world and at least for developing
countries make no excuses that there
will be no interruption in their
supplies and i think that uh one has to
again not forget the disaster that is
happening in humanitarian disasters
happening in ukraine that problem has to
be resolved quickly and ukrainians have
to be looked after first and by most
they're not just any people
they're hard-working people and
basically we live on believe on their
hard work the whole world is is it
depends on them so this is not just a
one little war somewhere going on this
is really likelihood of the planet parva
and i saw you reacting to some of what
abdulraza was saying did you want to
jump in
yeah um i think one of the things i just
want to recognize and maybe you know
working with oxfam and being involved in
very many crises across the the world
what we've been
uh talking about the fact that it's not
an either or in terms of the attention
of the crisis in the world you know that
it is actually about end you know we uh
do recognize at the moment the ukraine
crisis has a significant impact across
the globe but we do also have other
crises on the on the on the continent
we're talking about yemen we have
afghanistan we've got south sudan you
know what i'm talking about in the
region in the eastern africa region uh
in terms of the hunger crisis western
africa you know we've got um
as a health food crisis so in a sense
it's about also uh the international
community looking at the issues on the
globe in terms of how they do have a
ripple effect if there's anything i
think all of us learned from the covered
uh 19 pandemic it was that we are
interconnected so what does that mean
really for us on one hand and maybe just
picking up on a point that was being
talked about around date you know on the
african continent in the eastern africa
region at the moment in terms of
servicing debt because many of our
countries you know had to look for
resources to to address you know the to
respond to the corporate pandemic but
also to look at what the
recovery efforts could look like in
terms of
percentages over 35 percent of the tax
revenues are going towards debt
servicing we've had a drop even before
the ukraine crisis we had a drop of gdp
by over 2.7 percent so all of that you
know when you're talking about
multiplier effects is really feeding
into more and more uh crisis and some of
which get reflected in the form of
in the form of conflict you know so my
point around that actually is that we
need to be able to look at it in a
systems uh systems way right what does
it mean what are the lessons we're
learning for example on food production
the food supply chain yes there's um
been a mechanism where we have
had a working you know a food supply uh
system but clearly there's a certain
inconsistency in it which mean if we
have a trigger or a shock on one part as
a seemingly small part it has a
you know humongous effect so it's really
challenging us also to look again at our
mechanisms and that's why i made the
emphasis with on the beat around
what are we doing especially on
sustainable food systems how we're
working especially with small-scale
smallholder farmers that you know could
close a loop in immediate regional uh
markets because we do recognize that
the way we've got right now in terms of
the food system while it can very well
sustain itself small economic shocks big
economic shocks have a ripple effect
parvan i want to pick up on something
you just mentioned in your answer you
were talking about multiplying effects
and you also mentioned the word conflict
and that brings me to my next question
we just have about a minute and a half
left but i'm curious to get your
perspective how concerned are you that
that this this perfect storm of
variables that the world is dealing with
now which includes climate change covet
19 pandemic and now the war in ukraine
driving up all these prices um how
concerned are you that this all
threatens to turn into social unrest
well in terms of social unrest you know
there is that likelihood you know we do
know of countries uh many of the what
was called the al arab spring a couple
of years was based on
indications such as the prices of food
you know if you remember what was
happening in tunisia what was happening
in in sudan those were the triggers for
many of our communities and you know we
always say
how can i put food how can i put bread
on my table those form triggers for many
of the conflicts that that we have and
so in that sense even now people
questioning what is the increase in
terms of
of prices for me to be able to feed my
family what does that mean in terms of
looking at options what are the options
if there are no options then people take
you know what we call negative
coping mechanisms and you know while on
one hand you know you might call it
conflict it is reflected in the form of
conflict but there are other things
people who are missing meals uh we've
got examples of families opting to marry
off their young daughters because they
want to have less marks to feed get some
income so there are negative coping
mechanisms that people then adopt you
know which include conflict
unfortunately and with resources whether
it is food whether it is water you know
uh gas being the sort of uh centers of
the conflict all right well we have run
out of time so we're going to have to
leave the conversation there thank you
so much to all of our guests abdulreza
abbasian parvin nagala and chris weifer
and thank you two for watching you can
see the program again anytime by
visiting our website aljazeera.com and
for further discussion go to our
facebook page that's facebook.com
forward slash aj inside story you can
also join the conversation on twitter
our handle is at aj inside story from me
muhammad jim jim the whole team here in
doha bye for now
you
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