“I’ve NEVER seen anything like this” - Elon Musk drops a bombshell in Interview (Feb 29, 2024)
Summary
TLDR在这段视频中,埃隆·马斯克分享了他对人工智能(AI)未来5到10年的看法,特别强调了自动驾驶技术的进步,以及其对世界的深远影响。他提到,自动驾驶技术的成功将大幅提高乘用车的使用效率,并可能使得车辆的使用时间从每周10小时增加到50-60小时。此外,马斯克还探讨了AI在其他领域的应用,包括客户服务中的聊天机器人,以及其对提高生产力的潜在影响。他还预测了AI计算能力的快速增长,以及这可能带来的挑战,如电力和变压器的需求增加。最后,马斯克提到了特斯拉即将推出的低成本自动驾驶车辆,以及新款特斯拉Roadster的性能特点。
Takeaways
- 🚗 埃隆·马斯克讨论了自动驾驶技术的发展,强调了它对于未来汽车自主性的重要性。
- 🌍 马斯克提到,尽管自动驾驶在欧洲的发展较慢,但他们正在致力于首先在美国实现这一技术,随后将其扩展到全球。
- 👁️🗨️ 描述了使用数字神经网络和摄像头来实现汽车自动驾驶的方式,这类似于人类如何通过眼睛和生物神经网络驾驶汽车。
- 🤖 讨论了人工智能(AI)在各个领域的应用,包括自动驾驶、在线互动、客户服务和物流管理,强调了AI技术的快速发展。
- 💡 强调了AI计算能力的快速增长,预测这一趋势将继续带来巨大的技术变革。
- 🔋 讨论了电动汽车和AI技术对电力和变压器需求的增加,预示了未来可能出现的能源和基础设施挑战。
- 🚀 揭示了特斯拉正在开发的Optimus人形机器人项目,该项目旨在创建能够执行几乎所有人类任务的机器人。
- 🔌 强调了建立充电基础设施的重要性,以支持电动汽车的广泛使用。
- ⚡ 提到了汽车行业朝着48伏系统迁移的趋势,以提高能效和减少铜材的使用。
- 🚗 讨论了特斯拉下一代低成本、高度自主的电动汽车的开发,预示了电动汽车市场未来的变化。
Q & A
埃隆·马斯克认为未来5到10年人工智能会如何改变世界?
-马斯克认为人工智能将极大地改变世界,特别是自动驾驶技术的发展,将使汽车完全自动化成为可能。此外,人工智能的计算能力正在以前所未有的速度增长,这将推动人工智能技术的快速进步,包括在线聊天机器人和图像识别等方面。
为什么在欧洲不太能看到特斯拉的自动驾驶技术?
-马斯克提到,特斯拉首先需要在美国使自动驾驶技术工作,之后才会增加尝试在世界其他地方推广的复杂性。
为什么自动驾驶汽车的发展如此困难?
-自动驾驶汽车的发展困难,是因为要使汽车完全自动化,需要汽车具备高度的智能,包括能够阅读所有信息并评估其他驾驶者和行人的意图。这基本上是在创建一个能够全面理解周围环境的人工智能。
自动驾驶技术如何改变汽车的使用效率?
-自动驾驶技术将大大提高汽车的使用效率,因为目前乘用车每周的平均使用时间仅为10小时,而自动驾驶技术将使汽车像出租车一样工作,可能增加到50到60小时,这意味着乘用车的使用效率可能提高五倍。
人工智能计算能力的增长速度有多快?
-人工智能的计算能力似乎每六个月就增长10倍,这是一个前所未有的增长速度。
为什么NVIDIA的市值如此之高?
-NVIDIA的市值之所以如此之高,是因为它目前拥有最好的神经网络芯片,这对于人工智能的发展至关重要。
特斯拉在人形机器人领域的计划是什么?
-特斯拉正在开发名为Optimus的人形机器人,该机器人能够执行几乎所有人类可以做的任务。
人工智能如何影响生产力?
-马斯克认为人工智能将大幅提高生产力,从手工劳动到供应链物流,以及使用先进聊天机器人进行客户服务等方面都将得到改善。
特斯拉如何解决电动汽车长途旅行的充电问题?
-特斯拉开发了全球超级充电网络,以确保人们能夫舒适地进行长途旅行,并在任何地方给他们的车充电。
特斯拉的下一代车型将重点放在哪些方面?
-特斯拉的下一代车型将是一款成本更低、非常注重自动驾驶的车型。这表明特斯拉正致力于推进自动驾驶技术,同时使电动汽车更加经济实惠。
Outlines
🚀 对话埃隆·马斯克:AI与自动驾驶的未来
埃隆·马斯克分享了他对人工智能(AI)和自动驾驶技术未来5到10年的展望。他强调了自动驾驶技术的进展,特别是在美国,以及它如何利用数字神经网络和摄像头来实现全自动驾驶。马斯克提到,为了达到这一目标,汽车需要具备相当程度的智能,包括阅读能力和评估其他驾驶者及行人意图的能力。他还讨论了AI在提高乘用车效用方面的潜力,预计未来车辆的使用时间将大幅增加。此外,他谈到了AI在在线服务和计算能力增长方面的快速进展,以及这一进展对市场和技术的影响。
🤖 优化与AI在生产力提升中的角色
马斯克讨论了AI技术对生产力提升的广泛影响,包括在手动劳动、供应链、物流以及客户服务等方面的应用。他预测了一个通过AI驱动的技术革命,这将是历史上最大的变革之一。马斯克表达了他对AI未来发展的担忧,包括AI计算需求可能带来的电力和基础设施挑战。他还提到了电力需求增长对电压变压器和整体电力供应的影响,预示着未来可能会出现的电力短缺。
🚗 电动汽车与低压系统的未来
在这一部分中,马斯克探讨了汽车行业中电压系统的变化,特别是从传统的12伏系统向48伏系统的转变。他解释了这种变化如何减少车辆内所需铜材的量,从而提高效率和性能。马斯克还讨论了电动汽车(EV)充电基础设施的重要性,以及如何通过全球超级充电网络解决长途旅行和充电需求。他指出,随着电动汽车和AI技术的同时增长,对电气设备和电力生成的需求将大幅增加。
🌍 特斯拉未来车型与市场展望
马斯克预告了特斯拉未来的汽车设计方向,特别是关于低成本车型和以自动驾驶为中心的设计。他提到,随着AI技术的进步,车辆驾驶体验将变得更加人性化和直观。此外,马斯克提及了即将推出的特斯拉Roadster,它将提供令人兴奋的性能,例如在1秒内加速到100公里。他强调了特斯拉在创新和伙伴关系方面的成就,并对未来电动车市场的发展表达了乐观态度,尤其是关注欧洲市场中对可负担电动车的需求。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡人工智能
💡自动驾驶
💡数字神经网络
💡优化程序
💡计算增长
💡NVIDIA
💡电力需求
💡变压器
💡48伏系统
💡充电基础设施
Highlights
Cars becoming fully autonomous in the near future using AI and cameras.
Self-driving technology needing to assess intention of drivers and pedestrians.
AI compute increasing exponentially, by 10x every 6 months.
Shortages happening first in AI chips, then voltage transformers, then electricity.
Next generation Tesla vehicle focused on autonomy and lower cost.
Electric cars and AI driving large increases in electricity demand.
Infrastructure needing to keep pace with technology advancement.
Possible to have 0 to 100 km/h acceleration under 1 second.
Automotive moving from 12V systems used for a century to 48V.
48V system allows 75% reduction in copper wiring.
AI progress feels increasingly human-like in how it drives.
Mass adoption of electric vehicles could increase utility 5x.
Lidar not needed for self-driving, cameras and neural nets sufficient.
Demand for AI chips making Nvidia's market cap massive.
Seeing the biggest technology revolution in history.
Transcripts
so
yeah a true changer of the world and
he's continuing to to change all of us
with wonderful Vehicles he has brought
to us a space launch system with as
efficient as nothing before new people
on the on the space uh from us ground
after the space shuttle and I could go
on for half an hour but I don't do that
welcome big hand to Elon
Musk thank you
than oh how are
you uh good
fantastic we have we have had two we
have two days of AI and geni and
whatsoever but you look
real um my head is very big in the
screen and in reality too
suppose no Elon we have had so much talk
about Ai and these two days so we need
your opinion what do you think about the
next 5 to 10 years on AI please give us
a view artificial insemination
artificial intelligence what do you
think about
that but try try audience I say um so um
yes artificial intelligence um is
um is is certainly a profoundly change
the world one of the
most significant ways is
self-driving um
so we've been putting a lot of effort
into
self-driving uh technology for cars um
you you don't see it quite as much in
Europe um because we we first have to
make it work in the US uh before we
increase the complexity of trying to
make it elsewhere in the world um but I
think we're quite close to having the
car be fully autonomous so for example
like right now I could I'm inan Austin
and if I want to drive say to the
airport the car could take me to the
airport with no interventions uh using
and all it's using are digital neuron
Nets other words artificial intelligence
and cameras so there's no lar radar
nothing in fact if you think about how
um humans drive cars humans are
biological neural Nets and we use eyes
so it's the eyes
and bi biological neural Nets the analog
is or
digital the analog for digital uh is
cameras and uh digital neural Nets U
this is working remarkably well the it
has been quite difficult to do this
because turns out that in order to use
in order for this to work the car has
to really be quite fully intelligent
really as as a subset for example has to
learn how to read
everything and and and how to assess
intention among drivers and
pedestrians uh so it's it's it's you end
up
creating sort of a baby artificial
general intelligence to solve this but
this will obviously be extremely
profound um and obv I'm talking about
aut motive here I'll get into the
broader question in a minute um but the
uh the average use of a passenger
vehicle is only about 10 hours per week
out of 168 hours the point at which it
is aut
I think you would see probably a third
of the hours being used because it would
be like a
taxi uh so maybe my guess is like 50 to
60 hours which means that the utility of
a passenger vehicle would increase by uh
a factor of
five um and um this is this is gigantic
um but we'll see so that that's one
motive then there's what people think
have have an experienced online where
you can ask it a question and ask for an
essay or um a picture or to understand a
picture um and that is progressing
rapidly what I'm seeing in terms of AI
compute is I I've never seen any
technology Advance faster than this
the the the artificial intelligence
compute coming online appears to be
increasing by a factor of 10 every 6
months like
now obviously that cannot continue at
such a high rate for forever or or it
will exceed the mass of the universe but
U I've never seen anything like it and
this is why you see nvidia's U market
cap being so gigantic uh because they
currently have the best neural net chips
I mean I think the didn't nidia's market
cap exceed the GDP of Canada or
something recently anyway it was quite
High um so yeah you know it may go
higher who knows
um the chip Rush is um bigger than any
Gold Rush that has ever
existed um so and then there will also
be robots like humanoid humanoid robots
not not just sort of industrial
industrial industrial robots we of
course familiar with you use industrial
robots we use industrial robots everyone
does but they're very they're programmed
explicitly and they they don't walk
around but Tesla with
for example the Optimus program uh is
making a humanoid robot that is capable
of doing almost anything a human can do
um I mean I hope I just hope the the
robots are nice to us you know
um we hope so we hope so too Elon that
the robots will be nice to us and maybe
let's say in this regard because you are
working on optimos um what can we expect
in terms of let's say support which is
going to come maybe also a little bit
with regard to um production um because
in the BOS connected world we were also
discussing application of AI gen into
production uh in order to uh boost
productivity maybe a couple of thoughts
on this one
too
well the side of AI is that I think
productivity will increase
dramatically um so across every field um
whether it be manual labor to supply
chain
Logistics um there's already a lot
of movement to use um chat Bots like
sophisticated chatbots for customer
service for example where they can
answer quite quite complex questions
already but I mean I think
we really are on the edge of probably
the biggest technology
Revolution um that has ever existed you
know there's supposedly sort of a
Chinese curse may you live in
interesting times Well we live in the
most interesting of
times the most
interesting um and for for a while I was
a little bit it was making me a bit a
bit depressed frankly cuz I was like
well will we be will they take over will
we be useless um but then the way that I
reconciled myself to this question was
would I rather be alive to see an AI
apocalypse or not I'm like I guess I'd
like to see
that you know that's a good
thought that's a good thought because
you mentioned it tfold every six months
that's an exp exponential curve right
exponential curves are beautiful but
there's kind of a question where does it
ever end right do you see any end yet or
will it go on for three four five years
like this because then we talk 100 folds
right thousand folds of time yeah that's
why obviously yeah I mean you you can't
you can't grow at that rate without
quickly exceeding the mass of the
universe so clearly it's going to hit
some constraints the constraints that AI
compute and very predictable I've
actually predicted this over a year ago
um so over a year ago the shortage was
chips um CH neural net chips then I it
was very easy to predict that the the
next shortage will be voltage step down
Transformers so because exactly you've
got to feed the power to these things so
if you've got 100 to 300 kilovolts
coming out of your utility and it's got
to step all the way down to you know 6
volts that's a lot of stepping down on
so now we're in step down and this is
why not that funny joke which is that
they need Transformers to run
Transformers um because you know the AI
is like there's this thing called a
transformer in AI um it's a it's a neur
a neural I don't know it's a combination
of sort of neural Nets um and they're
running out of Transformers to run
Transformers then the next shortage will
be
electricity so I think next year you
will see the electricity that they just
can't find enough electricity to run all
the
chips I mean during the chip crisis we
certainly all did have many contacts
fortunately we were able to master it
together of course we all would like uh
to avoid a second chip crisis but with
regard to your com uh to your comment on
on power demand um we all know today
vehicles have uh three uh to four
kilowatt power demand for the
peripherals uh but this is continuously
going up and Tesla um has recently
launched the cyber truck which I believe
is mostly coming with 48 volt uh do you
see this as a let's say further
disruption of automotive industry uh
another technology change within
Automotive yeah I I think it you know
the automotive industry has been living
with 12 volts for a very long time a
century roughly um right I think it it
started off as six bolts and then they
needed a a more powerful um starter
motor and then they doubled it to 12
volts although it's it's actually more
like 13 s
volts you're right absolutely
yeah and and the bus voltage actually
varies a lot for those since there
probably some electrical engineers in
the audience it's like 12 volts is a
very rough approximation um but it's
it's it's really it's really kind of a
arbitrary low voltage um and if you look
at say power ethernet it's running at 50
volts or roughly 48 volts um and we set
it at 4 48 volts because anything really
above that you start to run into
regulatory concerns um and and power
ethernet is like I said roughly at that
level um but the advantage of obviously
quadrupling the voltage is that um you
can substantially reduce how much copper
uh or conductor is used in the car so
you can use very small copper wires for
um you know it's roughly a roughly a
quarter not exactly a quarter but
roughly a quarter as much as as much
copper is needed uh for 48 volts as for2
um so I think it's it's a logical move
um uh that's that's that's really the
next step for the low voltage
architecture for the car I think um
ultimately long-term War cars will be 48
volts mhm it's it's interesting that um
many people love electric vehicles and
want to have them but some are harmed by
a missing infrastructure that would be
the same actually as the AI thing we
will have lots of chips ready but we
will not had the power to to operate
them there's a race between
infrastructure and Technology right now
and you're also certain technology may
win which is a problem because actually
infrastructure should win we should have
all the infrastructure we need is that
correct yeah are you talking about like
sort of charging infrastructure for cars
and that kind of thing um well the the
reason Tesa developed the
sort of global supercharge network was
specifically to address that point the
point you're making which is uh people
need to be comfortable that they can
travel long distances um and charge
their car wherever they go um
unfortunately you you electricity is
almost everywhere um and so it's uh you
know it's not well not all that rare
unless you're really far out in the
countryside or something um
so yeah um you need this super need you
need the charging infrastructure and the
electricity to charge electric cars in
fact the the the simultaneous growth of
electric cars and um AI both of which
need electricity both of which need
voltage
Transformers um actually I think is
creating a a tremendous demand for
electrical equipment and for uh
electrical power
generation maybe one more question Elon
with regard to um new vehicle designs
coming to the market of course you
cannot share with us uh confidential
Secrets uh but but anyways what other
things you believe let's say we will see
over the next years in the market and
maybe just um a small comment in Europe
we see a shortage of affordable battery
electric vehicles um in the offerings uh
because many people in Europe are only
able to spend like 20,000
25,000 uh for their V Vehicles so so
what are the new vehicle types vehicle
designs you you are thinking about at
Tesla well our next Generation vehicle
will be a a low a lower cost vehicle um
but one also that is very focused on
autonomy um like I said
the we really are um getting to the
point where the car can drive itself
well um
when you're in the in the US I would
recommend perhaps giving a you know
trying out our car and see seeing how it
works um it's remarkable you know it it
as the AI gets better and better it
actually feels quite humanlike in the
way that it
drives it does things that you wouldn't
expect a computer to do it's it's not
like a robot dancing you know it's like
it feels smooth and and intuitive um so
our next Generation vehicle um which we
we're quite far along on is is very much
anticipating an
autonomy um and then of course we've got
some fun things as well like on our um
the new Tesla Roadster which will be
able to do 0 to 100 kilometers in under
1
second great thank you very much you
know that's we need that's good news
yeah that's doing some fun stuff too you
know that's that's the that that's the
dessert that's the cherry on the cake
you knowly but it's it's fun you're
going to have the fun stuff too yeah
right well that's very good news because
in the end there's a lot of people here
in the room that still on their list to
buy an electric vehicle and you just
announced something which they probably
want to buy so thank you very much thank
you very much and uh thank you extremely
for 15 years of partnership and work
together we are inspired Always by your
speed attitude or graphicness and things
come out thank you very much to Elon
Musk all right and thank you for your
support very very much appreciated
thanks
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