The World is NOT Ready & Beware Bitcoin Trap
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses the current state of the bitcoin market, analyzing price fluctuations, trading data, and factors driving demand. It highlights record investment flows into bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock and Fidelity, contrasting this with declining Grayscale volumes. Also covered are leverage and liquidation trends, the impact of large OTC desk supply depletion, implications of the upcoming halving, scarcity dynamics using stock-to-flow analysis, and bitcoin's long-term growth potential relative to global wealth.
Takeaways
- 😲 Bitcoin had a big price drop recently but quickly recovered - this is just normal volatility caused by leverage and market makers wanting to hit stop losses.
- 👍 Bitcoin's stock to flow ratio will soon be 1/3 that of gold - meaning extreme scarcity.
- ⏳ There are only 48 days until the next Bitcoin halving event which will decrease new supply by 50%.
- 📈 Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) saw record inflows yesterday, with BlackRock leading.
- 😎 Edward Snowden predicts a national government will be revealed as a big Bitcoin buyer this year.
- 🔒 On chain data shows long term holders accumulating and low supply on OTC markets.
- 😀 Bitcoin price action is still far from the peak of historical market cycles according to on chain analysis.
- 👀 A back of the envelope calc shows Bitcoin could be worth $10 million if it captured some global wealth.
- 💰 Mr. 100 wallet is buying over 100% of new Bitcoin supply daily showing intense demand.
- 🇧🇷 BlackRock is launching a Bitcoin ETF in Brazil where there is high inflation and currency problems.
Q & A
What is the stock to flow model and why is it important for Bitcoin?
-The stock to flow model measures the scarcity of an asset based on its existing stock and new production flow. It shows that Bitcoin is becoming exponentially more scarce over time, making it an attractive store of value like gold but with superior scarcity properties.
How much Bitcoin is left in OTC desks according to James Van Stratton's data?
-According to James Van Stratton's data on Glassnode OTC desks, Bitcoin supply on OTC desks is at the lowest level seen in 5 years, indicating tightening supply.
Why did Bitcoin see a big price drop recently if demand is so high?
-The price drop was likely triggered by market makers wanting to liquidate leveraged long positions to profit from the volatility before the price rebounds even higher due to strong underlying demand.
What is the predicted target price range for Bitcoin in the near term?
-The predicted target zone for Bitcoin in technical analysis is between $58,000 to $60,000 based on it being an area where market makers can liquidate both longs and shorts for maximum profit.
How much Bitcoin have the new ETFs accumulated so far?
-The new ETFs have accumulated over 327,000 Bitcoin worth over $20 billion in just 33 days, with BlackRock alone holding over $7 billion.
What is the significance of the Bitcoin halving that's happening soon?
-The Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward miners receive by 50%, meaning new supply gets cut in half while demand continues rising, creating a supply shock.
What is the predicted value per Bitcoin if it captures a fraction of global wealth?
-Estimates suggest each Bitcoin could be worth $10 million if Bitcoin captures even a fraction of total global wealth, indicating there is room for 100 million to 1 growth from current prices.
Who is the mystery whale dubbed Mr. 100 buying large amounts of Bitcoin?
-The identity of the whale dubbed Mr. 100 buying blocks of 100 BTC daily is unknown, but speculation indicates it may be a national government secretly accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
What does the technical indicator suggest about Bitcoin being near a top?
-According to PlanB's stock-to-flow model, the Pi cycle top indicator suggests Bitcoin is only about halfway through the current bull run, with significant room to grow before hitting a cycle top.
Why is Bitcoin unlikely to see major regulation in the near future?
-Governments will be hesitant to ban Bitcoin because undisclosed state actors are likely quietly accumulating it as a strategic reserve asset and will retaliate if their holdings are threatened.
Outlines
😀 Overview of the key points in the video
The narrator provides an overview of the key topics to be covered, including Bitcoin price action, updated ETF numbers, the Bitcoin having event, and more. There is excitement around the 'biggest day ever' for the channel.
👌 Bitcoin price crash explained
The Bitcoin price saw a massive crash yesterday, falling to levels not seen in 16 hours. The narrator explains this is due to high funding rates and market makers trying to liquidate leveraged longs and shorts. The target zone is around $58k-60k which could present a good buying opportunity.
💰 Record ETF inflows while GBTC dumps Bitcoin
Despite GBTC dumping $216 million worth of Bitcoin, record ETF inflows from BlackRock and Fidelity more than offset this. OTC desks are also running low on Bitcoin supply. More regions like Brazil are launching Bitcoin ETF products.
🌏 The world is not ready for the Bitcoin halving and scarcity
As Bitcoin moves to a 0.8% inflation rate, its monetary policy will be harder than real estate while having exponentially more demand. Large entities are buying up more than 100% of new supply daily, showing extreme scarcity.
😊 Bitcoin price could reach $10 million someday
A thought experiment shows if Bitcoin became the dominant global payment system, each coin could be worth $10 million. This illustrates how early the market still is in Bitcoin adoption.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin price
💡Stock to flow model
💡Bitcoin halving
💡ETF
💡Fiat currency
💡Market manipulation
💡Leverage
💡Institutional investors
💡OTC desks
💡Scarcity
Highlights
Bitcoin stock to flow ratio shows Bitcoin is moving to 1/3 the stock to flow of gold, meaning extreme scarcity
Bitcoin OTC desks have lowest Bitcoin supply in 5 years according to Glassnode data
BlackRock launching Bitcoin ETF in Brazil as countries like Brazil understand problems with fiat currencies
Bitcoin funding rates are extremely high indicating market makers preparing to wipe out leverage longs and shorts
Pi cycle top indicator shows we're not even halfway to the top, lots of room to grow
Edward Snowden predicts a national government will be revealed to secretly buying Bitcoin this year
Daily Bitcoin exchange inflow/outflow volume reached $5.57 billion, rivalling November 2020 all-time high
Biggest single day net inflow ever into Bitcoin ETFs at $673 million despite Grayscale dumping $216 million
BlackRock and Fidelity Bitcoin ETFs hold over 327,000 BTC, more than MicroStrategy's stash
A single entity is buying 100 BTC blocks worth over daily issuance, showing relentless demand
Bitcoin realized cap just $6 billion away from all-time high despite price drop, indicating strong developer support
If Bitcoin captures total global wealth, each BTC could be worth $10 million+ indicating vast upside
Short time holder deposits accelerating, speculation near all-time highs but traders being liquidated against uptrend
Bitcoin's volatile swing wrecked over half a billion in leveraged positions, Wall Street profits while retail loses
48 days until the Bitcoin halving, the world is not ready for the extreme supply shock
Transcripts
hello
everybody day 33 wow what a big day and
there's weird stuff going on and people
are freaking out Bitcoin is now at
prices we have not seen in 16 hours and
it's the end of the world but that's
just human nature literally Bitcoin fell
to price is not seen since 400 p.m.
yesterday and I'll explain what's
happening why it's happening who is
behind it okay we'll also talk about
some of the updated uh ETF numbers and
we are having the biggest day ever in 33
days we'll also do some charting I'll
show you the updated P Cycle top from
our top and bottom indicator which is
extremely bullish too and most
importantly how the world is not ready
for this having I'll break it out in
great detail biggest day ever day 33 and
I like my threes very fitting let's go
thank you as well to the mods in the
chat and we have a new thank you team
for putting this together Johnn pay says
longtime patreon first time chat jnn has
been in our patreon nearly three years
when we started three years ago thank
you so much for being out there let's go
uh first of all don't forget we have a
playlist Bitcoin only Alpha it's gotten
really big now and it has some good
stuff in there and it's even worth going
back in time everything is tagged up
really well set up in chapters if you
have certain questions uh that typically
reoccur like having like Stu to flow
like py cycle tops you just search all
that stuff investor answers in the term
and it'll take you directly to the
chapter now we got 48 days left 48 days
left we had the biggest ETF Day Ever
yesterday I will check on the volumes in
a minute Bitcoin had a massive Wick
people were freaking out but before we
get to that as to why that happened it's
so predictable it's so funny if I made
this video 2 hours
ago the dip would have happened right
after it's Madness timing is everything
and I'm a little bit late because it
takes so long to put all this content
together and a huge shout out to our
research team behind the scenes but this
is the big story today this is how we
are not ready for Bitcoin in the stock
to flow World shout out to uh I forget
who put this chart together it'll come
to me in a minute it'll come to me in a
minute but this is the Bitcoin stock to
flow ratio and again a quick reminder
everything the price of everything in
the world is based on scarcity ladies
and gentlemen whether it's a Gucci purse
or a Bitcoin or whatever else it's
scarcity and the stock to flow model is
now back in fashion it also works again
it's back in the zone right now at
around 60k now if you look here you'll
see the gold inflation rate that's the
red line on the chart it's about 2.3% a
year it's kind of like controlled
manipulated kind of like diamonds so
that's just gold if they want to get a
little bit more if they want to jack up
to 2.6% they just dig a little deeper
and sometimes they do that then you have
the Bitcoin inflation rate that's the
orange jaggedy
line and remember this is how much it
decreases after every having and by the
way the dotted golden line at the bottom
right hand corner is where we are going
the key part of this everybody all
right it's going we are moving into a
zone that will be onethird onethird the
stock to flow of gold that means it
would take 119 years of Bitcoin mining
at the
3.125 Block Bitcoin per block rate to
recreate the current circling Supply but
it Hales again after four years and
again four years after that and where
will people find their coins this is
scarce as can be
the world and this is from Checkmate the
chart thank you Checkmate I knew it
would come to me the world is not ready
for the Bitcoin having event in 48 days
all right we're we're going to a 0.8%
inflation rate harder than real
estate but now there's more money flying
into this asset than any other asset in
the planet which I'll show you in a
minute this is a beautiful time to be
alive stay healthy my friend
also breaking news OTC from James Van
Stratton he is on top of things and he
is the first to say that Bitcoin and OTC
desks on glass note is not entirely
representative of the entire OTC desk
but even if it is directionally correct
this is the lowest level of Bitcoin
Supply and OTC desks in 5 years okay the
coverage is bare there's no more all
right according to this there's
literally nothing left in the OTC desk
yes this gone it's
gone so how come the price is going down
we'll explain that in a second but now
we're going to look at this okay simple
little graphical chart shout out to
Sanjay as well uh here you can show the
massive dumpage yesterday 216 million
from
gbtc
guys okay 216 million but guess who did
three times that volume Black Rock
Madness completely Madness and guess who
surpassed it F delity 245 million it
doesn't matter I said it in yesterday's
video what grce scale do now is a
nothing Burger dcg is nearly out of
their Bitcoin okay they had 1.3 billion
they're dumping 216 million a day and
they've been doing it for like six or
eight trading days it's almost gone the
OTC desk is almost gone and we are going
to walk into the biggest Supply crunch
in the history of the world guaranteed
and there's more we've been talking
about Singapore and Hong Kong and
Vietnam and Japan and all the different
places building out ETFs but guess what
black rock is going to launch a Bitcoin
ETF in Brazil they are ready to go and
you know the problem they have in Brazil
shout out to everybody in Brazil oi Tabo
is they know currency problems they know
Fiat is crap their neighbors are
Argentina nobody nobody knows this
better than people in place
like Lebanon and Nigeria and Argentina
and Brazil
as to how weak and horrible Fiat is so
this is other exciting news now let's
talk about what's going on with the
price Bitcoin is at 61,000 actually it's
higher than it was at 4:00 yesterday but
that's just something else so one of the
weird things
is sometimes humans can't fathom what's
going on because they don't look at the
data they don't look at the numbers so
they say oh my God bigcoin has gone up
$22,000 in a month that's the biggest
monthly candle ever in the history of
Bitcoin I did a tweet on that last
night therefore it has to mean revert it
has to come down therefore the majority
of people are now short Bitcoin let's
look at this hey Joseph good to see you
again today here you can see the red are
short positions and the green are long
positions and you see the majority is
red it's pretty evenly cut for some
exchanges like byy bit The Bu bit no the
I can't read that c exactly gate.io
they're very bullish and so are bitf
very bullish but the other places
Kracken very bearish uh binance bearish
etc etc this is the problem a lot of
people are short but a lot of people are
long too and you know what happens when
you have a lot of shorts and Longs you
have this okay this is very very high
funding rates okay the market makers are
getting ready okay to swipe liquidity
and the Target on this is is 58,000
we'll talk about that and if they do
okay this is where if we do go as low as
58k the market makers want this because
they want to wreck the Longs right now
and then when it spikes up they want to
wreck the shorts it cuts both ways but
literally if we get close to 58 to 60k
that's where you buy with both hands if
you don't have any Bitcoin set your
limit orders now not Financial advice
now it's a tough call whether we will
get as low as 58k with all this demand
hard to say but again there's a lot of
Bitcoin buying and the funding rates are
extremely high another visual what I'm
talking about is the Kill Zone this is
the limit order kill zone right there
somewhere between say 59 and
58k maybe down as low as 54k the market
makers want to wreck you also they want
to buy your cheap Bitcoin so they can
give it to the ETFs that's how it works
everybody this is what's happening it is
not if there was just straight Market
with people kind of buying and selling
bitco coin out
there that we wouldn't see the
fluctuations but that's how markets work
it's full of Leverage full of
manipulation full of dumpage and that's
all that's happening so just give it a
day or two and we'll be right back
towards the moon now let's look at
exactly proof this is again I wish I
could have done this two hours ago CU I
had the data but didn't have the time to
finish the entire story but we knew this
was coming and so far 24 hours wrecked
it's
54631 million and a lot of them are
Longs the vast majority are Longs that's
what's happening everybody shoots up
shoots down that's why Wall Street makes
so much money and that's why djans lose
so much
money again going back to this don't
jump in front of a freight train but it
does you know the short squeezes do
impact prices too so that's what
happened over half a billion dollar gone
and here's another view of the leverage
heat map by the way LL is Leverage or
low
leverage I meant to add some HL for high
leverage but look at the Gold stuff the
high Leverage is very close to the price
these are the people get really really
wrecked now I am a low leverage player I
have a leverage long on salana
3.3x Jupiter just hit 200% today um but
that here is what I play very very low
levels of Leverage and a lot of capital
behind it so I make sure I never get
Wicked out that's the way to play
leverage ladies and gentlemen now let's
talk about more in terms of Scar
scarcity before we get into the ETFs Mr
100 I touched on this yesterday he's
been accelerating so you can see uh just
today all right the the red line in the
middle is what this person The Sovereign
whatever bought today these are blocks
of 100 Bitcoin let me count one two 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 they
bought nearly 130% of the daily issuance
of Bitcoin okay and they bought this all
above
$60,000 one
person absolutely sucks up all the daily
supply of Bitcoin one
person and they're accelerating they
used to buy three times 100 every day
now the yesterday they did 9 * 100 or 8
* 100 today a lot more than that okay so
it's crazy and they're not stopping
there is no stop they'll continue and
the more I don't know where this is
going to end up it's crazy now let's go
to a little bit of a thought experiment
as well beautiful little math project
here this is from Hal
finny and this just has to really
explain uh how early we are even though
you may not think so it's like oh my God
Bitcoins at 61,000 is too high but
imagine Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in
the world then the total value of all
the currency should be equal to the
total value of all the wealth in the
world and current estimates of worldwide
household wealth range from 100 trillion
to 300 trillion really this is by the
way this is 15 years ago so now it's
about 900 trillion but just pretend it's
300 trillion okay with 20 million coins
of course is 21 but they're rounding
here that gives each coin a value of
about $10
million okay now if you take 900
trillion actually drop a comment below
everybody math homework time uh some
people love these little quizzes
especially with your kids it's a good
activity okay I want you to divide 900
trillion by 21 million drop the answer
below I will pin the winner okay the
first to get it also what this basically
Bally means again that gives each coin a
value of about $10 million just assuming
a fraction of the actual household
wealth that exists today so the
possibility of generating coins today
with a few cents of compute uh might be
like a good bet with a payoff of
something like 100 million to one okay
even if the odds of winning are 100
million to one it makes sense to do it
okay so it's just something to think
about I thought that was very profound
and I love that oh by the way we're
$9.94 million away from this
target I'll repeat that
$9.94 million away this thing is hard
this is scarce and the Sailor says it
just takes
10 just 10 billionaires to decide they
want to allocate the Bitcoin and that's
it gone 10 billionaires all right let's
get back to some charts uh here we see
breaking Bitcoin RC RC is realized cap
is $6 billion from alltime high so this
is in lie of the highest spot price
since December 2021 the risk appetite
amongst Market participants has returned
in style okay this is highlighted by the
acceleration of capital inflows and an
increasing activity among the short-term
holder cohort who are depositing over 2
billion of volume to exchanges every day
speculation activities is also present
across derivative instruments like we
just covered with both options and
Futures Interest being just shy of
alltime high as well the per funding
rates now provide in excess of two to
three times the risk appetite of us
treasuries and this has been an uplift
in liquidity and shorts side interest
and longside interest too however much
of this appears to be directional as
many Traders continue to bet against the
prevailing uptrend being liquidated as a
result just as I covered shout out to
the glass note team for this beautiful
chart remember we are right there in
terms of a realized cap everybody that's
another new record Another new all-time
high in
addition in terms of daily volume the
total volume of Bitcoin deposits and
withdrawals to exchanges has continued
to expand reaching a staggering 5.57
billion in Daily volume flowing in and
out of exchanges that's why coinbase
went down yesterday and rivaling
activity scen November
2020 uh 2020
202 2021 alltime high if I'm not
mistaken yes 2022 was a bad year so
let's talk about another thing which is
super interesting as well shout out to
Edward Snowden I did touch in this a few
days ago but it was nice to see Ryan
selus jump in on it too Edward Snowden
had a prediction a national government
will be revealed this year to have been
buying Bitcoin the modern replacement
for monetary Gold without having
disclose that fact publicly okay I think
we know who this is this could be Mr 100
we're not sure but there than now the
14th biggest wallet by my calculations
somebody is stacking this stuff fast
Ryan celus jumped on this thread and he
said the Saudis buy a massive Trove of
Bitcoin hypothetically we don't know
exactly who it is and they announce
before us politicians can pass industry
crippling legislation and they say the
Saudis say to the US if you destroy our
bags we're not friends anymore
Checkmate okay
it's Game Theory but the game theory is
happening all over the world at the same
time in many different places this thing
is as hard as can be so again we're
still early remember what Hal said right
here okay we're still early hope we got
that now let's crunch the ETF numbers
and then we're going to do one little
chart that's also very important that
shows you how early we are day 33
there's too much of night chart to see
so we'll skip it but the good news is
record breaking day we have never had
such a high day you can see black rock
through the moon day 33 Okay biggest Day
Ever despite as well a big dumpage of
nearly a quarter of a billion dollars
from gbtc that's the green line at the
bottom and they're just shrinking like
there's nobody business but that's dcg
once dcg is flushed once that turd is
gone expect extreme hardness to kick in
and we're close like quarter of a
billion yesterday there's not much left
in the dcg bag in addition we have the
best money flow Day Ever from 33 days
net positive
6734
million that's over 2/3 of a billion
dollars into just n
ETFs okay and that's net actually is
more going into the ETFs because
of the dumpage from gbtc in addition up
and to the right still the red line
focus on that you can see the actual
cumulative is really big cumulatives on
the left hand side it's nearly 8
billion into these puppies net of gbtc
and inflows into the nine double the
gbtc outflow right now because you got
to take all the absorption from gbtc
plus all the net positive flow into the
new ones and they are now double that's
the first time we've seen that happen as
well you can see the big gorilla 7
billion uh for Black Rock five billion
for Fidelity and then the rest got two
in the billy club bitb and Arc are the
two other billionaire clubs the rest are
just kind of nothing Burgers but they
still add up quite a bit too in addition
327,000 Bitcoin are now in these new
ETFs
327,000 they completely smoked sailor's
bag of
193,000 and again Black Rock over 7
billion Fidelity over 5 billion all in
just 33 days and the most important
thing is we just had the biggest Day
Ever yesterday which is indicative of
the the volume we saw too now let's look
at exactly how many Bitcoin were pulled
and remember the higher the Bitcoin
price goes the number of Bitcoin pulled
from the system goes down but remember
when they started 13,4 400 the price of
Bitcoin is about 40,000 now
10,772 were pulled from the system
yesterday but the price was over
62k that's the difference very big very
up and to the right this thing is not
slowing down as the price of Bitcoin
goes up though the amount that they pull
from the system will shrink but remember
48 days away the having it's going to be
nuts all right time for a quick chart
I'll let you all go thank you as well
everybody for coming I see B man out
there in
Dez down there in Namibia Etc let's go
this is the top and bottom indicator and
the P Cycle top which has been
absolutely Pitch Perfect in identifying
tops and bottoms of Bitcoin Cycles so
this is
a the blue line is the Bitcoin price and
I only went back to 2017 it's on the
daily and the tab modelist is showing
the P Cycle top now at the very top the
red shad is the top and bottom of the
pie cycle top all right the very top of
the P Cycle top is at the top middle
Green Arrow and it absolutely nailed the
first top but remember as I always say
the second top was manipulated
everything was manipulated back then
because of the nefarious players that
have all been flushed from the system
and are happily in jail where they
belong um but if you look at the bottom
also the bottom nailed the bottom back
in August September time frame
2022 and we had another further no that
was that's pretty much close to the
bottom there now the point is a lot of
people are concerned now that Tabby Pi
cycle top is incoming no it is not we're
not even halfway there so if you look at
where we are today in terms of price
we're about to break a new all-time high
super close and at the same time Pi
cycle is not even halfway up so
everybody we are in very good shape
don't be concerned that the Market's
getting toppy we have a long long way to
go and we have unprecedented money flow
everybody so thank you all for coming
subscribe to the channel thank you to
every patreon appreciate you all thank
you to the mods in the chat and shout
out to Joseph as well see you all later
everybody
[Music]
bye-bye
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