Yen Carry Trade Apocalypse
Summary
TLDRDans cette vidéo, Matthew de Bitcoin University explique le concept de 'carry trade' et son impact sur les marchés financiers. Il illustre le phénomène avec des exemples, notamment la stratégie de prêt à faible taux en yen pour investir dans des actifs à rendement plus élevé, comme les obligations américaines. Il analyse les risques, y compris l'instabilité des marchés et les effets de contagion qui peuvent résulter de la hausse des taux d'intérêt. Matthew met en avant le rôle des banques centrales et la solution potentielle d'une monnaie basée sur Bitcoin pour échapper à l'inflation et à la dépréciation des monnaies fiduciaires.
Takeaways
- 📚 Le terme 'carry' en finance fait référence au coût ou au bénéfice de détenir une position de trading, qui peut être positif ou négatif.
- 💰 Un trade à 'carry positif' vous apporte des revenus, tandis qu'un trade à 'carry négatif' implique des coûts supplémentaires pour maintenir la position.
- 🔄 L'exemple donné implique un prêt à 1% pour acheter des actions de Coca-Cola avec un rendement dividende de 3%, créant un carry positif de 2%.
- ⚠️ Même avec un carry positif, il existe des risques, comme une baisse des actions qui peut annuler les bénéfices.
- 📈 L'utilisation de la leverage peut augmenter les rendements, mais aussi les pertes si le marché s'inverse.
- 🏦 Une augmentation des taux d'intérêt peut transformer un carry positif en négatif, ce qui peut forcer à fermer la position.
- 🌐 Le 'carry trade Yen' est une stratégie de trading courante impliquant l'emprunt en yen et l'investissement dans des actifs à rendement plus élevé.
- 📉 Une augmentation des taux d'intérêt par la Banque du Japon peut déclencher une panique et l'unwinding des trades carry Yen.
- 🌪️ Les trades carry peuvent créer des effets de contagion dans les marchés financiers, affectant d'autres actifs et marchés.
- 💡 La solution au problème de la contagion peut être soit de laisser le marché atteindre un équilibre naturel, soit d'intervenir avec plus d'impression de monnaie par les banques centrales.
- 🚀 L'adoption de la Bitcoin comme standard monétaire est présentée comme une solution pour échapper à l'inflation et à la dépréciation de la monnaie fiduciaire.
Q & A
Qu'est-ce que le terme 'carry' en finance technique ?
-Le 'carry' est un terme de finance technique qui désigne le montant que vous recevez ou que vous devez payer tout en maintenant une position de trade. Un trade à carry positif vous rapporte de l'argent, tandis qu'un trade à carry négatif vous coûte de l'argent pour maintenir la position.
Quel est l'exemple donné dans le script pour expliquer le carry positif ?
-L'exemple donné est celui d'un emprunt à la marge à 1% de taux annuel, utilisé pour acheter des actions de Coca-Cola avec un rendement dividende de 3%. Cela signifie un carry positif de 2%, car le rendement dividende est supérieur au coût de financement de l'emprunt.
Comment le carry positif peut-il devenir négatif ?
-Le carry positif peut devenir négatif si les taux d'intérêt augmentent, comme si la FED augmente les taux d'intérêt, forçant les brokers comme Interactive Brokers à augmenter les taux de marge. Si le coût de financement dépasse le rendement des dividendes, le carry devient négatif.
Pourquoi les fonds d'investissement à forte leverage sont-ils souvent impliqués dans des trades à carry élevé ?
-Les fonds d'investissement à forte leverage sont souvent impliqués dans des trades à carry élevé car ils peuvent augmenter potentiellement les retours sur investissement en utilisant des marges élevées, bien que cela implique également des risques accrus.
Quel est le concept de 'Yen carry trade' mentionné dans le script ?
-Le 'Yen carry trade' est une stratégie de trading où l'on emprunte en yen (avec des taux d'intérêt bas), vend le yen contre des dollars américains, puis investit ces dollars dans des obligations gouvernementales ou d'autres actifs donnant un rendement plus élevé que les taux d'intérêt du yen.
Quels sont les risques associés au 'Yen carry trade' ?
-Les risques associés au 'Yen carry trade' incluent la volatilité du marché monétaire, la possibilité que la Banque du Japon augmente les taux d'intérêt, ce qui peut provoquer une appréciation rapide du yen et des pertes considérables pour les investisseurs qui ont emprunt en yen.
Quel est l'effet de la contagion dans les marchés financiers, comme expliqué dans le script ?
-L'effet de la contagion fait référence à la manière dont une perturbation dans un marché ou une région peut avoir des répercussions sur d'autres marchés ou régions, provoquant une vente en cascade et une augmentation de la corrélation où presque tous les actifs sont vendus en même temps.
Quels sont les deux principaux 'solutions' proposées dans le script pour arrêter la propagation des marchés ?
-Les deux solutions proposées sont de laisser le marché libre trouver un équilibre par lui-même, ce qui peut être politiquement impopulaire, ou d'autoriser les banques centrales d'imprimer encore plus d'argent pour stabiliser les marchés, ce qui peut entraîner une inflation et un cycle de vie/ mort économique.
Pourquoi le Bitcoin est-il présenté comme une solution potentielle dans le script ?
-Le Bitcoin est présenté comme une solution potentielle car il est considéré comme un moyen de valeur qui ne peut pas être infléchi par la politique monétaire des banques centrales et qui pourrait offrir une protection contre la dépréciation de la valeur des monnaies fiduciaires.
Quel est le choix final présenté aux investisseurs dans le script entre le Bitcoin et les monnaies fiduciaires ?
-Le choix final présenté est de décider entre détenir du Bitcoin, un actif à haute volatilité mais programmé pour gagner en pouvoir d'achat à long terme, ou de détenir des monnaies fiduciaires, qui sont à faible volatilité mais programmées pour perdre en pouvoir d'achat à mesure que l'inflation s'ensuit.
Outlines
📈 La fin de la stratégie de carry du yen et ses conséquences
Le premier paragraphe explique le concept de 'carry trade' en termes financiers, illustré par un exemple de prêt à faible taux et d'investissement en actions donnant un rendement. Il met en lumière les risques inhérents, notamment la volatilité des marchés et les changements de taux d'intérêt de la Banque centrale qui peuvent transformer un carry positif en un carry négatif. Le texte se concentre ensuite sur la stratégie de carry du yen, où l'on emprunte en yen à faible coût et investit dans des actifs à rendement plus élevé, comme les obligations américaines ou des actions technologiques. Il décrit comment une augmentation des taux d'intérêt peut provoquer un effondrement de cette stratégie, entraînant une appréciation rapide du yen et des pertes considérables pour les investisseurs qui ont utilisé un levier élevé.
🌐 Les effets de la contagion financière et les solutions possibles
Le deuxième paragraphe discute de la manière dont une perturbation dans un marché, comme le marché boursier ou la stratégie de carry du yen, peut avoir des répercussions mondiales à cause de l'interconnexion et de la dette élevée dans le système financier mondial. Il explique comment la peur et la volatilité peuvent causer des investisseurs de vendre d'autres actifs, comme les bitcoins, en raison de la fermeture des marchés traditionnels. Le texte propose deux solutions potentielles : laisser le marché atteindre un équilibre par lui-même ou une nouvelle injection de liquidité par les banques centrales, ce qui pourrait entraîner une inflation et un cycle de création monétaire sans fin. Il conclut en soulignant l'avantage d'investir en Bitcoin comme moyen d'éviter la dépréciation de la monnaie fiduciaire et de bénéficier d'une hausse de pouvoir d'achat à long terme.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Carry trade
💡Positive carry
💡Negative carry
💡Leverage
💡Yen carry trade
💡Contagion
💡Correlations
💡Unwinding a trade
💡Margin call
💡Bitcoin standard
💡Fiat currencies
Highlights
Matthew CRS Bitcoin University discusses the Yen carry trade apocalypse and its real-time implications.
Carry trade is a financial term for the cost or benefit of holding a trade, with positive carry meaning you get paid to hold and negative carry meaning you pay to hold.
An example of a positive carry trade is borrowing at 1% to buy Coca-Cola stock yielding 3%, resulting in a 2% positive carry.
Leveraging a positive carry trade can significantly increase expected returns, but also amplifies risks.
Changes in central bank interest rates can turn a positive carry trade into a negative one, forcing traders to unwind their positions.
Macro hedge funds often use highly leveraged carry trades, charging management fees and profit shares for these trades.
The Yen carry trade involves borrowing in Yen at near-zero rates and investing in higher-yielding US assets like treasuries or tech stocks.
The Yen carry trade can be executed in various forms, including spot transactions, futures, and structured products.
A sudden increase in Japanese interest rates can cause panic among carry trade participants, leading to a rapid unwinding of positions.
The rapid appreciation of the Yen against the dollar can lead to significant losses for those who have borrowed in Yen and invested elsewhere.
Unwinding carry trades can spread contagion, affecting unrelated markets like US tech stocks and causing a broader sell-off.
The interconnectedness and leverage in the global financial system can cause ripple effects from one market disruption to others.
During market closures, panic can lead to selling in the only open markets, such as cryptocurrencies, causing a downdraft in Bitcoin.
Two solutions to market contagion are allowing the market to find equilibrium or further central bank intervention, both with political and economic implications.
The cycle of central bank money printing, inflation, rate hikes, and market crashes is a repeating pattern over the past 50 years.
Bitcoin is presented as a potential solution to the cycle of fiat currency debasement, offering a standard that could break the pattern.
Bitcoin's performance against the Japanese Yen and US dollar demonstrates its potential as a hedge against currency debasement.
The choice between holding Bitcoin or fiat currency is framed as a decision between long-term purchasing power gain or loss.
Transcripts
this is Matthew CRS Bitcoin University
and today I want to talk about the Yen
carry trade apocalypse which we're
seeing blowing up in real time but first
a little background what is quote
unquote carry it's a technical Finance
term for how much you get paid or have
to pay while you're holding on to a
trade so a trade that has positive carry
you get paid to hold and a trade that
has negative carry you need to pay
something in order to hold on to it so
for example let's say back in 201 12 I
took out a margin loan from interactive
brokers at 1% that's an annual rate and
I use the proceeds to buy Coca-Cola
stock with a dividend yield of 3% now if
nothing changes in this trade I'm paying
1% annually to finance this trade and
I'm receiving 3% annually in dividends
so this trade has a positive carry of 2%
just 3% minus the funding or the
financing cost of 1% now 2% positive
carry may not seem like much but now
lever it up 10x with your Prime broker
like a hedge fund can do and you're
looking at an expected annual return of
20% Which is nothing to sniff at so
that's what's called a positive carry
trade because you get paid to have it on
of course there's no guarantee that
you'll make money in a trade like this
for example in the unlevered version of
that trade where you're making 2% per
year you're making that spread between
3% and 1% if Coca-Cola stock tanks 10%
that wipes out 2% of your profits and
then another 8% and so you're actually
underwater even though the trade has
positive carry and if your lever 10x and
Coca-Cola stock tanks 10% then you've
just lost 100% of your money so there
are definitely risks involved other
nasty things can also happen for example
let's say that the FED raises rates
raises interest rates forcing
interactive brokers to raise their
margin rates from 1% to 4% now I'm
paying interactive brokers 4% annually
and I'm only earning 3% annually so I'm
paying 4% and I'm earning 3 % that means
the trade has now gone from being a
positive carry trade to a negative carry
trade or I'm paying that 1% per year to
have the trade on so at that point it
might make sense to unwind the trade and
notice here that it was the change in
Central Bank interest rates that forced
me out of the trade here's a dirty
little industry secret highly levered
carry trades are bread and butter for
most macro hedge funds they gamble with
your money and then they collect 2%
management fees and 20% of profits for
putting something on that's fairly
simple like this trade so what is the
Yen care trade that we've been hearing
about so much in the news in the last 24
hours it's quite similar so if
short-term interest rates are at around
5% for the US dollar and short-term
interest rates are close to zero for the
Japanese Yen then I can borrow in Yen I
can pay close to 0% in financing costs I
can sell the Yen for US Dollars I can
take those US Dollars and buy US
government bonds us treasuries and
collect about 5% annually now there are
many versions of the Yen carry trade you
can do this with the spot you can do it
with future FES you can do it with
currency Futures on the CME for example
you could borrow in Yen and buy us
treasuries you could borrow in Yen and
buy us tech stocks you could buy a
structured product that short the Yen
and long the US dollar you could buy a
structured product that short the Yen
and long the Australian dollar this was
a very widespread about a decade ago and
was a very popular popular trade to have
on the problem with these positive carry
trades like any other trades they can
become inherently unstable if they get
very crowded if everyone is on one side
of the boat like long the US dollar and
short the Yen which has been a very
profitable trade for a couple of years
now now the bank of Japan also known as
the boj which is the Central Bank in
Japan when they raise interest rates
even just 25 basis points or a quarter
of a percentage point this can Panic
everyone who has this carry trade on
especially if they're using lots of
Leverage in their trade and so they
might decide to size it down or get out
of it get out of it completely so
everyone goes from one side of the boat
to the other side of the boat and it
ends up looking like this so as this
chart moves up that's the dollar
strengthening against the Yen which has
been a very good trade and then as the
chart moves down that's the Y
strengthening against the dollar what
you might call the reverse carry trade
or everyone unwinding the positive carry
trade and so we've seen the Yen
massively appreciate against the dollar
over the past couple weeks now what
happens if you've been borrowing in Yen
and using the proceeds for example to
finance something else like a long US
tech stock portfolio and then the Yen
strengthens quickly against the dollar
well since you're short the Yen you've
borrowed in Yen you begin to lose
massive amounts of money and so you
decide or your broker even forces you if
you get a margin call to unwind the
trade so you sell your qqqs you sell you
sell your US tech stocks you get US
dollars in return you sell those US
Dollars you buy yen and you've
completely closed out both legs of the
trade and then in doing so this helps to
spread the contagion and so you have US
tech stocks selling off in the process
and as tech stocks sell off even people
who aren't involved in the carry trades
may decide well I've taken enough paying
I bought the qqqs at 500 and then now at
450 so I'm going to get out and take my
beating if you're finding this video
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out now because the entire world is so
interconnect connected and also
leveraged there's a lot of debt in the
Global Financial system A disruption in
one part of the world can have huge
Ripple effects the proverbial butterfly
causing a hurricane in another part of
the world so for example again carry
trade on wines the qqq's dump my
portfolio dumps I can't afford to pay my
mortgage and I have to sell my house the
real estate market crumbles bank's
balance sheet crumble Etc so this is
what's known as contagion and this is
what's known as correlations going to
one where almost everything's sells off
in unison Japan sneezes and the whole
world catches cold though in this case
it could have this could have begun
elsewhere there's no real reason to
blame Japan for it there is nothing
special about the the carry trade for
example a huge sell-off in US stocks for
example could cause an unwinding of the
end carry trade so it can worth it can
work in both directions so it's one
thing if this contagion takes place
during regular trading hours but what do
you do if you decide to panic over the
weekend with everyone else when all the
trafi markets are closed you dump the
only thing that as an open market or you
go shorted as a hedge you sell your
Bitcoin and you sell your crypto because
those are the only markets you can trade
over the week and and that's one reason
we've seen such a downdraft in Bitcoin
and cryptocurrencies so how do you fix
this contagion and how do you stop the
markets from dumping solution number one
is really just the free market solution
you just let everything fall until it
reaches an equilibrium level problems
with this approach though politically
unpopular in an election year if people
aren't making money on their stocks in
real estate then the US government
collects yet Less in taxes in terms of
capital gains taxes and needs to issue
even more debt for which the FED is the
buyer of Last Resort and you end up with
even more money printing that's solution
number one solution number two central
banks give the patient yet another shot
of heroin and money printer goes Burr
this is really the circle of life that
we've seen so many times and how many
innocent cats have been put in the air
because of the Lion King The Circle of
Life goes like this central banks print
they cause inflation
then they have to hike rates then they
blow everything up and then central
banks come in to mop up the mess and
print even more this is the story The
Cycle that's been repeating again and
again and again over the past 50 years
the only real cure for this circle of
life or Circle of Death is a Bitcoin
standard and that's where we're headed
that's basically the guaranteed path
that central bank money printing is
putting us on because it's destroying
all Fiat currencies and the only Warrior
left standing is going to be Bitcoin
fortunately you can opt into standard
today and get ahead of the game you
don't need to wait for the end of the
world if you're a Japanese investor
holding Bitcoin we can see here the
chart of Bitcoin versus the Japanese Yen
it's been an excellent hedge against
currency debasement over there yes it is
volatile Etc but we can see here that in
terms of Yen terms Bitcoin is still up
on this year and it's trading you know
very close to all-time highs same for
Bitcoin denominated in US dollars as
well so that's really your choice you
can hold Bitcoin or you can hold your
local fiat currency which is guaranteed
to lose purchasing power over time and
if you want to learn more about that you
can watch my previous video which I'll
link to in the description notes below I
call it Bitcoin forest fires and I
summed it up by saying the choice is
yours do you want a low volatility asset
that's programmed to lose purchasing
power forever like the US dollar or the
Japanese Yen or do you want a high
volatility asset that's programmed to
gain purchasing power forever like
Bitcoin is you have to choose one or the
other because there's no such thing as a
high return investment with low
volatility that simply does not exist if
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thanks all for watching and I'll see you
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