Bitcoin (BTC): Upside Breakout! Bullish and Bearish Elliott Wave Analysis Scenarios

Summary

In this Bitcoin update, the presenter discusses a significant breakout above resistance levels, leading to a bullish five-wave move. With the Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference potentially introducing volatility, the focus is on micro-structure analysis and updated support levels. The video delves into the possibility of an extended wave 1, adjusting support regions for a potential wave 2 pullback, and emphasizes key levels at $56,600-720 and $75,000 as pivotal for market direction. The presenter also announces an upcoming analysis of the Injective Protocol following a Twitter poll.

Takeaways

• 📈 Bitcoin has experienced a breakout above the resistance area, indicating a strong upward movement from the Thursday low.
• 📊 The speaker is analyzing the micro structure of Bitcoin's price movements on a 30-minute chart, focusing on the move from the 5th of July low.
• 🔄 The speaker mentions a five-wave move to the upside, suggesting a bullish trend for Bitcoin.
• 📅 The Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference is highlighted as a potential source of market volatility, although it doesn't necessarily change the trend.
• 🚀 The speaker assumes that the market is in an extension of wave 1, after a high B-wave scenario was removed from the analysis.
• 🏆 The Injective Protocol was voted by Twitter followers to be analyzed, and the speaker promises an update on it.
• 📉 The speaker discusses two scenarios for Bitcoin's price movement: a bullish one and a 'very bullish' one, based on the five-wave move.
• 💰 The support region for a possible wave two pullback is adjusted to around $56,600-720, which is important for direct upside extensions.
• 📍 Key resistance levels are identified as $64,720 and $75,000, with the latter being a pivotal point for confirming a third wave.
• 📉 A break below $64,720 would suggest a larger wave two is unfolding, while a break above $75,000 would indicate the market is already in the third wave.
• 📝 The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on the levels rather than vague probabilities when making trading decisions.

Q & A

What significant event is being discussed in the video that could impact Bitcoin's volatility?

The Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference is mentioned as an event that could introduce volatility to Bitcoin's market, although it doesn't necessarily change the trend.

What is the current trend of Bitcoin according to the script?

The current trend of Bitcoin is up, with a confirmed five-wave move up from the Thursday low.

What is the significance of the five-wave move up in the Bitcoin market?

The five-wave move up signifies a bullish trend and the fulfillment of the minimum requirements for such a move, indicating a potential extension of wave 1.

What does the speaker mean by 'micro structure' on the 30-minute chart?

The micro structure refers to the detailed analysis of smaller price movements within the larger trend, specifically on a 30-minute chart scale.

What was the community's choice for the cryptocurrency to be analyzed on Twitter this weekend?

The community voted on Twitter, and the Injective protocol was the clear winner for the cryptocurrency to be analyzed.

What is the updated support level for a possible wave two pullback according to the speaker?

The updated support level for a possible wave two pullback is around $56,600 to $56,720.

What does the speaker consider as the key milestone for Bitcoin to be in the third wave?

The speaker considers a break above $75,000 as the key milestone to assume that Bitcoin is already in the third wave.

What are the two scenarios being discussed for Bitcoin's movement?

The two scenarios are: 1) A more probable scenario with a healthy wave two pullback, and 2) An alternative scenario where wave two has already bottomed, and the market is directly in a third wave.

What does the speaker suggest could be an opportunity for investors during a pullback?

The speaker suggests that any pullback could be an opportunity for investors, especially if it's a shallow pullback, as it might indicate the start of a more aggressive bullish trend.

What is the speaker's approach to trading decisions based on the analysis?

The speaker emphasizes focusing on the levels rather than vague probabilities, using specific support and resistance levels to guide trading decisions.

What are the next resistance levels mentioned for Bitcoin's price movement?

The next resistance levels mentioned are $70,000 as the previous swing high, then the $72k area, and finally, the $75k and $78k areas.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin's Breakout and Analysis of Five Wave Move

The video begins with an introduction to a significant breakout in Bitcoin's price, which has surpassed a key resistance level, leading to a strong upward movement. The speaker discusses the micro-structure of Bitcoin's movement on a 30-minute chart, starting from the low point on July 5th. They update viewers on support levels and the importance of the Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference, which may introduce volatility. The speaker also mentions that the trend is up and that the fifth wave of the move was confirmed during the previous weekend. They suggest that the current situation might be an extension of wave 1 and have adjusted their analysis accordingly. The speaker also addresses the community's request for an analysis of the Injective Protocol, which was voted for on Twitter, and promises to release this analysis soon.

05:02

📊 Analyzing Bitcoin's Market Scenarios and Support Levels

In the second paragraph, the speaker delves into the potential scenarios for Bitcoin's market movement. They discuss the possibility of a deep pullback and the importance of observing the nature of the next rally to determine if it's corrective, which could lead to another dip and a great opportunity for accumulation before a third wave. The speaker also considers the alternative scenario where the second wave may have already bottomed out, suggesting a more aggressive bullish trend. They emphasize the importance of specific price levels, such as $64,720 as support and $75,000 as a key milestone, which if broken, would indicate the start of the third wave. The speaker advises focusing on these levels for trading decisions rather than vague probabilities. They conclude by discussing the current bullish stance of the market, the importance of monitoring the breakout above initial resistance, and the potential for further price increases, especially if the price remains above $64,720.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a peer-to-peer network without the need for intermediaries like banks. In the video, the speaker discusses the recent price movements and technical analysis of Bitcoin, indicating its central role in the video's theme of cryptocurrency market analysis.

💡Breakout

A breakout in financial markets refers to the price of an asset moving past a significant resistance level, often indicating a potential trend change. The script mentions Bitcoin breaking out above a resistance area, which is a key event in the analysis of its price movement.

💡Five wave move

In technical analysis, a five wave move is a pattern that suggests a complete upward or downward movement in a market trend, typically consisting of three impulsive waves (1, 3, 5) and two corrective waves (2, 4). The video discusses a 'five wave move to the upside,' which is integral to understanding the current market sentiment and potential future direction of Bitcoin's price.

💡Microstructure

Microstructure in the context of financial markets refers to the detailed analysis of small price movements over short time frames. The speaker mentions examining the microstructure on a 30-minute chart, which is a way to understand the immediate dynamics of Bitcoin's price action.

💡Support levels

Support levels are prices at which an asset's downward movement is expected to encounter buying interest, potentially halting or reversing the decline. In the script, the speaker talks about updated support levels, which are crucial for traders to identify potential entry points or areas where a price might find stability.

💡Volatility

Volatility refers to the degree of variation of a trading price series over time. The video script warns of a potentially volatile weekend due to the Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference, indicating that external events can influence market movements and should be considered in trading strategies.

💡Trend

A trend is the general direction in which prices are moving in the market. The speaker emphasizes that the trend for Bitcoin is up, which is foundational to the video's analysis, as it sets the context for understanding the bullish outlook.

💡Wave 1 extension

In the context of wave analysis, an extension of wave 1 suggests that the initial upward movement is continuing beyond its typical length. The speaker assumes that the market is in an extension of wave 1, which is significant for understanding the ongoing bullish momentum.

💡Injective Protocol

Injective Protocol is a decentralized exchange and layer-2 solution for Ethereum that allows for cross-chain trading. The script mentions that the community voted for the speaker to analyze this protocol, showing its relevance and interest within the cryptocurrency community.

💡Bullish

A bullish market sentiment indicates that market participants expect prices to rise. The video describes the market as 'bullish' or 'very bullish,' which is a key concept in understanding the optimistic outlook for Bitcoin's price.

💡Pullback

A pullback is a temporary decrease in price after a period of increase. The speaker discusses the possibility of a wave two pullback, which is an important consideration for traders looking to identify potential buying opportunities.

💡Risk management

Risk management in trading involves the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated efforts to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events. The script mentions that risk management levels don't change, emphasizing the importance of this concept in maintaining a disciplined trading approach.

Highlights

Bitcoin broke out above the next breakout point resistance area, indicating a strong upward movement.

The presenter will analyze the micro structure on the 30-minute chart from the 5th of July low.

Updated support levels are discussed, which are crucial for understanding potential market movements.

The Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference may introduce volatility but is unlikely to change the current uptrend.

Confirmation of a five-wave move up from the Thursday low, fulfilling the minimum requirements for such a move.

The presenter assumes that the market is in an extension of wave 1, revising previous high B-wave scenarios.

The results of a Twitter poll indicate that the Injective Protocol is the coin to be analyzed this weekend.

A detailed explanation of the five-wave move, including the newly labeled wave four.

The chart is described as bullish, with an emphasis on the potential for an even more bullish scenario.

Adjustment of the support region for a possible wave two pullback, with specific price points given.

Two potential scenarios are presented: a bullish market with a healthy wave two, or an alternative scenario where wave two has already bottomed.

The importance of watching for a break above 75,000 as a key milestone to confirm the market is in the third wave.

The presenter expresses a preference for a deep pullback for a cleaner market structure but acknowledges its unpredictability.

Risk management levels are discussed, emphasizing that support is not a target but a point that may or may not be tested.

The presenter outlines specific resistance levels to watch for market movement, including 70,000, 72k, and 75k.

A reminder that the support area will change if the market enters the third wave, with a new set of resistance levels.

The presenter concludes by emphasizing the importance of focusing on current chart levels and the breakout above initial resistance.

Transcripts

[Music]

hello and welcome to another update

video about Bitcoin yeah what a day

Bitcoin broke out above the next

breakout Point resistance area and we

have a pretty nice five wve move to the

upside now from the Thursday low so

we're going to take a look at the micro

structure in this video the micro INF

structure on the 30 minute chart um the

move from the 5th of July low and we

take a look at the updated support

levels and what really matters now um

bear in mind today you know we prepared

for that I tried to prepare you also

mentally for a volatile but POS POS

possibly positive weekend due to the

Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference um

again you know events like these can

introduce volatility they don't

necessarily change the trend we already

highlighted a week ago way before that

actually the trend is up and that we

have a five wave move up well that fifth

wave was really confirmed I think when

we sort of entered last weekend um that

was a five-wave move then which

fulfilled the minimum the bare minimum

requirements at the time for a five wve

move I now assume that we're in an

extension of wave 1 um I've taken that

high b-wave scenario off the chart again

in the short term it didn't make on

doesn't make a difference but it doesn't

look right anymore it doesn't have the

right look with a high B wve here so I

took that out um but yeah we'll talk

about that in this video quick reminder

before I forget you guys voted on

Twitter um for a coin for me to analyze

specifically on Twitter this weekend the

votes came in and injective won okay so

the injective protocol is the clear

winner I know a lot of people have asked

on YouTube as well for a uh an injective

protocol update now um yeah that's going

to come out today I know a lot of people

are interested so let's uh let's you

know can you can check it out on Twitter

just make sure that you follow the

correct account you can find the link in

the description it's not uploaded yet

I'll probably do that in the next few

hours so you might want to you pay

attention to Twitter so um from the 5th

of July low I already mentioned we had a

five wave move up so wave one wave two

wave three wave four five I complained

from the beginning this wave four was

Tiny but valid now we have a healthy

wave four so I've relabeled it a bit um

highlighting that the wave four actually

ended here on Thursday which now gives

us a cleaner five wve move uh that

doesn't change that the chart is bullish

the chart is bullish maybe even a little

bit more bullish now and what I have to

do though if the wave 1

extends I have to adjust the support

region for a possible wave two pullback

so if a wave two pullback starts

somewhere from this region then support

should be found around $

56,600 720 this is the support area for

direct upside extensions let me explain

that

further so we just shift out of this a

little higher so we have two scenarios

the chart is bullish question is is it

bullish or bullish bullish okay so I

promised you um I remember that in the

bare Market I remember in the bare

Market when people said okay we have a

bullish and a bearish scenario well I

told you that in the bull market there

will be scenarios where we have a

bullish one and a very bullish one and

this is what we're dealing with right

right now especially due to the five

wave move up that we've seen into the

rally of well last Sunday's High um but

we get another extension it seems for me

the slightly more probable scenario

because I prefer to have a healthy wave

two all right I prefer to have a healthy

wave two but it is possible in the

alternative scenario that wave two

already bottomed here on Thursday and

we're directly in a third wave so if we

are already in the third wave then we'd

be looking at something more

aggressively bullish like this Wave 1

wave two wave three 4 five so this would

be a more dark directly bullish scenario

which is why I have added the upper

support region because it supports

direct directly Rising prices so maybe I

should put the alternative wave two in

white then so that suggests or indicates

how we could move up higher more

directly so any pullback could be an

opportunity the question is is the

shallow pullback sufficient to support

Rising prices and to end the correction

or if a correction starts from here does

the entire move up need to be

corrected it's difficult to say um it is

bullish or bullish I would use the well

I'm I would I would like to see a deep

pullback we won't know until we get a

pullback and then see the nature of the

next rally if that's corrective it

should lead to another dip and then this

would be an amazing opportunity once

more for accumulation before we go up

higher likely in a third wave I cannot

rule out

shallow pullbacks and I cannot rule out

that the wave two already bottomed which

is why I try to warn all week that

pullbacks can be shallow it's it's just

not predictable I can also I mean to a

degree yeah because as you know I

mentioned it that now we might be

entering a phase where pullbacks are

shallow is just you know how in how far

you know do do we really believe it that

that's the thing you know that because

the risk management levels don't change

so the support is not a Target

this is just support it's it supports

the price doesn't mean it has to test it

the price might test it at some point

but maybe not yet

so yeah bullish in the meantime um in

the very short term against

64720 and in other words it takes a

break below

64720 to suggest that the larger wave

two is unfolding if we just keep going

keep going keep going and the price

breaks above 75,000 which is a key

Milestone here key pivot that is when I

will assume that we're already in the

third wave okay and that I will stop

watching for a wave to can I tell you

which one is more likely I I wouldn't

base my trading decisions based on vague

probabilities it's about the levels okay

so I have no way to calculate uh which

one is more likely usually you would say

it's the deeper pullback will happen at

some point but I would rather focus on

the levels so I just told you that we

can be bullish directly against 64,000

720 and we can uh take out the Deep Wave

2 scenario if there is a break Above

75,100 So at the moment I think both are

similarly likely um I would like to see

a deep pullback doesn't mean it has to

happen um it would be the nicer

structure to work

with but we know clearly which levels

matter so it's 75,000 and to the

downside

64720 next resistances

here previous swing high at 70,000

pretty much and then above the 72k

area yep and then we enter here 75k 78k

so but at that time we will already be

in the third wave and the support area

will change so this is how I see the

market at the moment again a little bit

you know surrounding that I'd say today

obviously the day isn't over yet and

Nashville conference there might be a

bit of I don't know bu the rumor sell

the news who knows um the levels do

matter focus on what we see right now in

the charts and we broke out above

initial resistance and I don't see any

sign of a of a pullback yet so we could

still push higher um especially against

64720 here this could have been a micro

like small triangle or something maybe

it's difficult to say which level really

matters for direct upside continuation

I'd say the last swing low a break below

6890 here would be the earliest

indication that top of Swords has formed

I hope that helps hope you like the

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content thanks a lot for watching

bye-bye