Bitcoin: Can The 4 YEAR CYCLE Save BTC? - NOT What You Expect!

Summary

This video script discusses the recent significant drop in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, with a focus on the deviation from macroeconomic trends. The speaker explores the possibility of Bitcoin reconnecting with its long-term bullish cycle, despite the current bearish sentiment. They also highlight the importance of the 4-year cycle in guiding Bitcoin's price action and provide insights into potential recovery scenarios. Additionally, the script mentions a VIP sale on Telegram, exchange bonuses, and a trading course, offering viewers resources to navigate the volatile market.

Takeaways

• 📉 The recent drop in Bitcoin's price to around $53,000 has caused concern, but the speaker believes there's a chance to salvage the trends that were broken due to this drop.
• 🔄 Despite the drop, the speaker suggests that the overall bullish market trends are not completely broken, as they are based on weekly and monthly chart indicators which have not been technically invalidated yet.
• 💡 The speaker emphasizes that even if the macro trends are broken, the macroeconomic environment remains bullish, and the deviation in cryptocurrency prices is unusual and may not last.
• 🔮 The speaker discusses the possibility of Bitcoin reconnecting to the 4-year cycle, which has historically provided clarity and guidance for Bitcoin's price action.
• 🔑 The speaker mentions the importance of the $61,000 level for Bitcoin, suggesting that a rapid surge back above this level before the weekly candle close could salvage some macro trends.
• 🚫 The speaker does not believe the current situation indicates a bear market, distinguishing between a traditional bear market and the current deviation from macroeconomic trends.
• 📊 The speaker highlights the unusual reverse correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin over the past month, which is a deviation from the norm.
• 💰 The speaker discusses various factors that may have contributed to the deviation, including government actions, overvaluation, and potential market manipulation.
• 🛑 The speaker warns that the current price action has damaged the macro trends significantly, and the total cryptocurrency market cap has broken below important support lines.
• 🤔 The speaker presents different scenarios for the future of Bitcoin's price, including a potential reconnection to the 4-year cycle, a recovery if certain price levels are reached, or a continued deviation from macro trends.
• 🛍️ The speaker advises caution with altcoins, suggesting that Bitcoin's position should be assessed first before considering re-entering the altcoin market.

Q & A

What was the significant event that occurred in the cryptocurrency market over a day ago according to the script?

The significant event was a big drop in the price of Bitcoin to the $53,000 region and a similar drop in the total cryptocurrency market cap, which fell below its ascending support line.

What does the speaker believe about the possibility of salvaging the broken trends from a few days ago?

The speaker believes there is a chance to salvage the trends because they are not technically completely gone yet, and a rapid surge upwards to get back above the 61k level before the weekly candle close could potentially save some macro trends.

What is the speaker's view on the macroeconomic environment in relation to the current price action of Bitcoin?

The speaker believes that the macroeconomic environment is undeniably bullish, and the current price action of Bitcoin, which is deviating from this environment, is unusual and likely due to unique factors.

What is the '4-year cycle' mentioned in the script, and why is it significant for Bitcoin's price action?

The '4-year cycle' refers to a pattern in Bitcoin's price action that has historically offered clarity and guidance. The speaker suggests that reconnecting to this cycle could provide a more clear direction for Bitcoin, even if other macro trends are broken.

What unique factors are suggested to have dragged Bitcoin's price down, according to the script?

The script mentions several factors including the German government selling an ETF, overvaluation, potential market manipulation, and the impact of the ETF release causing Bitcoin to move too fast and break all-time highs before the halving event.

What is the importance of the 61k level for Bitcoin in the context of the script?

The 61k level is a critical macro support zone for Bitcoin and a monthly chart level. If Bitcoin can get back above this level before the weekly candle close, it could potentially salvage the current macro trends.

What is the speaker's stance on the possibility of a bear market given the recent price action?

The speaker does not believe that the current price action indicates a traditional bear market. They suggest that even if the macro trends are broken, the long-term trend of Bitcoin following the macroeconomic data, which is still bullish, will likely prevail.

What is the significance of the total cryptocurrency market cap chart's five-step pattern mentioned in the script?

The five-step pattern signifies stages in the market cycle, with step four being the final step before a parabolic bull market with an altcoin season. The speaker discusses invalidation factors for this pattern, suggesting that the recent price drop has caused significant damage to these macro trends.

What are the potential scenarios for Bitcoin's price action according to the script?

The potential scenarios include: 1) A bear market that is not traditional and could last a couple of months, 2) A recovery if Bitcoin manages to close the weekly candle above 61k, suggesting a deviation, and 3) Bitcoin failing to close above 61k and eventually reconnecting with the 4-year cycle, providing more macro predictability.

What is the speaker's strategy regarding altcoins in the current market situation?

The speaker has cut most of their altcoin positions and is not interested in buying back altcoins until they see Bitcoin in a decent position, such as reconnecting to the 4-year cycle. They believe that Bitcoin will determine the direction of the rest of the market.

What additional services or offers are mentioned in the script, and what are their benefits?

The script mentions a VIP sale on Telegram with a 24-hour remaining window, offering four or more trading plans per week with a 78% win rate, access to a group chat for market discussion, and a discounted price for a limited time. Additionally, there are sign-up bonuses and trading fee discounts for Bitx and Bingx exchanges, and a sale on a 'Become a Trader' course for learning trading and technical analysis.