Bitcoin rejected, crypto crash and fade continues (here’s your chance)

Summary

The video discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, focusing on Bitcoin and various altcoins, amidst a broader market downturn. The speaker analyzes recent price movements, emphasizing the importance of key support and resistance levels. They predict a trading range for Bitcoin, with potential for further downside after a rally, and caution against leaving the market during periods of low interest. The video also touches on macroeconomic trends, including the debate over recession indicators and their impact on investment strategies. The speaker advises viewers to stay informed and engaged, even when the market appears less active, and to be selective with altcoin investments, highlighting the importance of underlying strength and resistance levels.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, noting a recent crash and a trading range for Bitcoin.
• ⛱ The video was recorded after a day out, indicating a laid-back approach to market analysis despite the recent downturn.
• 🔍 The speaker is attempting to navigate the YouTube algorithm by using simple titles and avoiding clickbait thumbnails.
• 📉 There's an expectation of a grinding trading range for the stock market, with a potential for further downside after any rallies.
• 🚀 Despite short-term volatility, the macro bull market is still in play, and the speaker hasn't changed their long-term views.
• 🧵 The top seven US tech stocks are mentioned, with most performing relatively well, although Tesla is noted to be in a downtrend.
• 🌐 Discussion of economic indicators suggests that talk of a recession may be overblown, with examples given of markets hitting new highs despite technical recessions.
• 🤔 The speaker advises viewers not to leave the market during periods of low interest, as this is when smart investments can be made.
• 🔑 Bitcoin's price is closely watched, with key levels identified at $63,000 and $59,000, which could indicate market strength or weakness.
• 📊 The average true range (ATR) is highlighted as an indicator of market interest, with a decrease in ATR suggesting a consolidation phase.
• ⏳ The speaker anticipates a potential consolidation period for Bitcoin, possibly lasting a few months, before the next significant market move.

Q & A

What does the speaker suggest is the current state of the cryptocurrency market?

The speaker suggests that the cryptocurrency market is in a 'crypto crash and dying out phase', with a focus on the journey through this downturn.

What is the speaker's view on the current trading range for the stock market?

The speaker believes that the stock market is in a 'grinding trading range', expecting a rally followed by further downside, potentially testing previous lows.

What does the speaker predict for the Bitcoin market in the short term?

The speaker predicts a potential decline in Bitcoin's price, with a focus on the $63,000 level as a key support point. If this level breaks, further downside to $59,000 or lower is possible.

How does the speaker describe the current sentiment in the market?

The speaker describes the current market sentiment as one where the 'narrative has started to die off' and the 'masses lose interest', which is typically a period of consolidation before another move to the upside.

What is the speaker's advice for investors during this period of market downturn?

The speaker advises investors not to leave the market during this period of low interest and consolidation, as this is the time to potentially get good deals on altcoins and prepare for the next market move.

What is the significance of the 'three red weeks' mentioned by the speaker?

The 'three red weeks' refer to a pattern the speaker observes in the market, suggesting that after a rally, there is typically a period of decline followed by another rally, and this pattern could continue in a cycle.

What does the speaker suggest about the potential for a recession in the second half of 2024?

The speaker dismisses the idea of a recession in the second half of 2024 as 'misinformation for the masses', citing examples like the UK and Germany where technical recessions did not equate to actual market downturns.

How does the speaker analyze the performance of the top seven US stocks?

The speaker notes that six out of the seven top US stocks, which are predominantly tech stocks, are doing relatively well despite some downside movements. Tesla is highlighted as being in a downtrend.

What is the speaker's outlook for the altcoin market?

The speaker provides a cautious outlook for the altcoin market, advising investors to watch significant lows and not to enter into previous consolidation zones, which could be a red flag for the altcoin's performance.

What is the importance of the 50% level in the context of the speaker's analysis?

The 50% level is significant in the speaker's analysis as it often serves as a key support or resistance level for various cryptocurrencies. If a cryptocurrency breaks this level, it could indicate further downside.

What does the speaker mean by a 'left translated cycle' and 'right translated cycle' in the context of Bitcoin's market cycle?

The speaker uses these terms to describe different phases of the Bitcoin market cycle. A 'left translated cycle' suggests a longer bear market compared to the bull market, while a 'right translated cycle' implies a shorter bear market or less downside compared to the bull market.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Crypto Market Analysis and Bitcoin's Current State

The speaker begins by welcoming the audience back to discuss the crypto market, particularly focusing on the journey through the 'crypto crash' and the market's current phase. They mention developments with Bitcoin's price and the performance of altcoins. The speaker also discusses the importance of understanding market cycles, such as the real estate and stock market cycles, and provides an analysis of the stock market's trading range and potential future movements. They highlight the need to stay informed and engaged with market trends, regardless of short-term fluctuations.

05:01

📉 Bitcoin's Macro Outlook and Trading Range

The speaker provides an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's macro outlook, discussing the left and right translated cycles and how market sentiment can be misleading. They reference past market behavior to predict potential future trends, suggesting that Bitcoin may experience a trading range for the next few months. The speaker also discusses key price levels, such as the importance of the $63,000 level for Bitcoin, and what a breakdown from this level could signify for the market. They emphasize the importance of not leaving the market during periods of low interest, as this can be a time when significant opportunities arise.

10:02

🔍 Analyzing Altcoins and Their Market Behavior

The speaker shifts the focus to altcoins, discussing their performance and how to identify strong altcoin investments. They highlight the importance of observing significant lows and support levels, using examples like Salana and Pendle to illustrate their points. The speaker also warns against falling for altcoins that have dropped significantly in value without showing signs of recovery or strength, as this can indicate underlying issues with the coin. They encourage viewers to look for altcoins that have managed to hold above key support levels, as these may offer better investment opportunities.

15:03

🚨 Avoiding Pitfalls and Staying Vigilant in the Market

In the final paragraph, the speaker advises against falling for the allure of altcoins that have experienced significant drops in value, stressing that such drops are often indicative of deeper issues. They use the example of Ada to illustrate how an altcoin's performance can be a red flag if it falls back into previous consolidation zones. The speaker emphasizes the importance of critical analysis and not being swayed by the narrative that a coin is a good buy simply because it has dropped in value. They conclude by encouraging viewers to share their thoughts and other strong altcoin picks in the comments section and to stay subscribed for further updates.

Keywords

💡Crypto Crash

A 'crypto crash' refers to a significant and rapid decline in the value of cryptocurrencies. In the video, the speaker discusses the journey through this crash, indicating that it is a central theme as they analyze market trends and the behavior of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

💡Trading Range

A 'trading range' is a period during which a financial instrument is stable and does not move very much in price. It is mentioned in the context of the stock market and cryptocurrency Bitcoin, suggesting that the speaker believes we are in a period of stability or consolidation after a period of volatility.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a type of cryptocurrency and is often used as a benchmark for the performance of the entire crypto market. The speaker frequently refers to Bitcoin's price movements and its cycle, indicating its importance in the overall discussion of market trends.

💡Altcoins

Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin. They are mentioned as the speaker discusses various other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, highlighting their performance and potential investment opportunities in the context of the current market conditions.

💡Macro Bull Market

A 'macro bull market' refers to a prolonged period of upward price trends in a broad market segment. The term is used to describe the speaker's view on the overall market trend, suggesting that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive.

💡Technical Recession

A 'technical recession' is a term used when an economy experiences negative growth for two consecutive quarters. The speaker uses this term to discuss economic conditions, particularly in the context of the UK and Germany, and how market perceptions of recessions may not always align with actual market performance.

💡Grinding Trading Range

A 'grinding trading range' describes a period where an asset's price moves within a narrow range with little significant progress. The speaker uses this term to describe the current state of the market, suggesting a period of indecision and lack of strong directional moves.

💡Average True Range (ATR)

The Average True Range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset for a given period. The speaker discusses ATR to highlight how market volatility has decreased, indicating a period of consolidation.

💡Consolidation

Consolidation in financial markets refers to a period where an asset's price remains relatively stable after significant gains or losses. The speaker suggests that the market is entering a period of consolidation, which typically precedes another significant price move.

💡Significant Lows

In the context of the video, 'significant lows' refer to the lowest price points that an asset has reached during a specific period, which can act as support levels. The speaker advises viewers to monitor these levels for various cryptocurrencies, as their breach could signal further downside risk.

💡Accumulation Zones

Accumulation zones are price areas where there is a high volume of trading activity, indicating a build-up of investor interest. The speaker discusses these zones in relation to altcoins, suggesting that those which have broken past these zones and are holding above key levels may have underlying strength.

Highlights

The speaker discusses the journey through the crypto crash and the current state of the market.

Developments with the price of Bitcoin and altcoins are reviewed.

The importance of understanding macroeconomic cycles, including the real estate and stock market cycles, is emphasized.

Analysis of the current trading range for the stock market, suggesting a potential rally followed by a downside.

The speaker shares their view that the market is likely in a trading range for another month or two.

A downtrend for Tesla is identified, with a need to break above 240-250 for signs of strength.

Discussion on the potential for a recession in the second half of 2024, contrasting with market highs.

Bitcoin's current decline is analyzed, with a focus on the macro view and cycle.

The speaker predicts a possible right translated cycle for Bitcoin if it passes October without a new high.

A grinding trading range for Bitcoin is described, with key levels between 59 and 74.

The average true range is used to illustrate market volatility and potential consolidation periods.

The speaker advises not to leave the market during periods of low interest, as this can be a good time to invest.

Patterns in altcoin movements are discussed, with a focus on ETH, Solana, and Pendle.

The importance of watching significant lows in altcoins and not falling back into previous consolidation zones is highlighted.

A warning is given against falling for altcoins that have dropped significantly without showing underlying strength.

The speaker emphasizes the value of being in the market during periods of low participation and interest.

A reminder that the speaker will cover USDT charts and total altcoin market cap in another video.

Transcripts

all right guys welcome back to the

office after a beautiful day out in the

sun yesterday we've got plenty to cover

here looking at the journey through this

crypto crash and dying out phase of the

market uh some developments happening

with the price of Bitcoin I've got

altcoins as well for you it looks like a

reasonable time here you know the old

Last Chance speaking of crazy headlines

we are doing our best to beat the

YouTube algorithm thanks to your help

smashing the like button because I guess

you're enjoying just simple titles and

no OAC thumbnails all right maybe it is

the people in the background on the

beach but I can't help that that's

essentially the Gold Coast beaches there

are plenty of people to look at on the

beaches uh overall doing fantastically

well here thank you very much for your

support Smash Up the like button and

subscribe if you are new there's plenty

of macro coming up and if you're missing

out on the updates it's going to be hard

to follow along as we continue up into

the peaks of the real estate cycle the

stock market Cycles the Bitcoin Cycles

so let's start it out with the stock

markets now the major thing we looked at

here for this period of the market is

probably a grinding uh trading range

grinding trading range right first half

2024 correction or pause that has now

occurred 1 of April was the peak the

overall look here is that we're probably

going to see some sort of rally which

maybe this is all it's been over the

last 3 days but because we've seen those

three red weeks now that would suggest

that we are in for more downside after a

rally so that could be the rally maybe

we got a little bit more but likely

would see further downside three red

weeks rally downside three red weeks

rally downside three red weeks rally

downside three red weeks from the peak

rally downside I think you're starting

to get the point I can go back over the

charts for years on end but I think you

start to get the idea here the rally can

go slightly higher but typically you'll

see a pullback back into that Trading

Zone so if you want to take my word for

it great if you want to do your own

research even better but essentially you

could look at that rule and see that

even if we were to get the rally the

probabilities are in favor of a further

uh move to the downside to at least test

those lows maybe a little further that's

why I'm still of the view that we're

probably in a trading range and this

could last for another month or two so

we'll keep following up on the charts

that goes for the NASDAQ as well uh the

Dow Jones similar sort of situation

except it didn't have the three red red

weeks uh but maybe it's just going to

see a rally and it might not crash below

the previous low so it might be slightly

stronger there nonetheless when it comes

to the S&P and the NASDAQ looks like

we're at least in that trading range for

the foreseeable future overall macro

bull market still in Play My Views

haven't changed there we did not break

any sort of 50% levels significant 50%

levels here so far and we haven't got

back to the new the previous old

all-time high so overall things are

looking all right for the longer term

shorter term uh it seems like we're

still in this churny sideways uh grind

now I was going to look at a few stocks

uh essentially the top seven US Stocks

here at least they're all Tech out of

the out of the seven of them six of them

are doing relatively well even though

some of them had some downside like inv

viia the worst of the bunch is Tesla yes

I'm coming for those Tesla investors

it's a downtrend be aware you need to

see this thing break above roughly sort

of 240 250 to at least put it back into

some sort of signs of strength other

than that it's kind of like the xrp

mindset they just keep getting uh on

board a declining train here these

aren't looking too bad even though

they're pulling back So eventually I can

see see things going a little higher

from here even if you were to see a

recession I've seen a few bits of data

coming up where the market is trying to

suggest the us is going to see a

recession in the second half of

2024 UK take this the economy meant a

definition of a technical recession like

the US did in 2022 but there was no

recession called nonetheless L the UK

just hit a new alltime high price

yesterday it's in a technical recession

but it's been hitting new alltime prices

throughout the month of April go figure

Germany did this last year or recently

earlier this year we covered that as

well this whole recession talk is waste

of time and it's basically

misinformation for the masses you want

to be part of that go for gold otherwise

just keep trading the charts and you

will do better than 90 5% of the people

out there Bitcoin let's have a look here

we are on the decline again this is the

macro nothing has changed here for the

macro view in terms of the left and

right translated cycle you can see how

that narrative has started to die off a

little here because things got so hot so

quickly in that six-month move to the

upside if you want to look at the

monthly chart here there were six months

within the swing and seven green months

many were thinking that this was the end

because we hit a new Fresh alltime high

price but the same sort of thing

happened back in 2019 we ran up really

quick we didn't go to a new all-time

high but it ran up very very quick 6

months in the swing and people looking

at it being a left translated cycle

which is why I've got under here wrong

the market sentiment was very very wrong

we didn't get the left we had a long

pullback and then we got into a right

translated cycle all that means is that

you would see less downside or a shorter

bare Market than the bull market you had

roughly 3 years up from the low to the

high and then 12 months down so similar

sort of thing here I don't think we are

getting ready for some sort of left

translated top again there's still about

six seven months to go until we got to

that Midway point of the 4E cycle not

this harving cycle forget that thing the

four years of the low to the low that's

how you measure the cycles and if we

were to pass uh October of this year and

put in a new Fresh High that would

technically put us as at a right

translated cycle which could still mean

we would see 18 to 24 months of a

downside if that was the peak but uh we

might also see it go up for a few more

months from there so I'm looking towards

quarter 4 2024 and quarter 1 of 2025 to

see where the market is at could it be

the final Peak maybe we go higher later

into 2025 we need to wait and see from

this particular point so with this

pullback at the moment this is doing

well to set us up for that next move

providing we can hold out here or at

least Bitcoin price can hold out in this

grinding trading range for the next

couple of months now what is this

grinding trading range so far it's

sitting between 59 and

74 overnight for the short term we did

get a rejection at 67 again remember we

looked at 67 as being that key level on

the 13th of April so nearly two weeks

ago now and it got swiftly rejected at

67 came back down now we've just seen

that in the last two days there was 67

inside day and then the rejection in the

last 24 hours so it's really trying to

hold up here at 63 what does all this

mean if Bitcoin breaks down from

63 probably going to see further

downside probably going to see 61 down

to 59 tested because that 50% level is

key right now look at all the closes

that have happened at that price you can

go back to the previous lows here you

can see the rejection uh as it climbed

up in February and March so around that

sort of 63 64 level has been pretty

important through this trading range and

I think if we do get that breakdown

again uh this level's going to be in

trouble

5961 and of course if that starts to

break down well then I'm looking towards

the 50% level at 56k and then back to

that range roughly around 50 to

$53,000 we're not there yet the $63,000

level will probably show if there are

any cracks in the market coming up now

speaking of cracks in the market we've

got the average true range here so the

range of the bars or candles in that

case uh extends in these huge moves to

the upside looking at the the average of

course and then as it starts to come

down to go into a grinding trading range

you'll see the range of the bars

decrease now that doesn't mean that the

market is over that the the whole bull

market is over it means it's just going

back into a holding period potentially a

consolidation before we see another move

to the upside so you can see it happened

throughout 2023 we have um March through

to October so roughly seven months there

where the the ranges of the bars

squeezed they got smaller and that is

just a sign of the market quietening

down the interest goes and then some

consolidation can happen before you see

the breakout so from these points this

is where the masses leave so if you were

one that left in 2023 don't make that

mistake again don't leave the market if

it gets boring that was two months down

about a month up another two months down

and then it took a couple of weeks to

get going so it can take some time I'm

not expecting this time to take seven

months we have also looked at this in

past videos where we have well the

Bitcoin has shown plenty of turns around

March April and June so so far we've got

the peak in March we ran up again to the

1st of April and uh after those periods

you can see that it consolidates for

about three four five months so it's not

uncommon for Bitcoin to do these sorts

of moves if we've just had this big run

up now we have a pull back into the 50s

maybe the high 50s and then consolidate

through here for the next 1 two 3 four

months it's doing exactly what it has

done in the past and this is typically

where the interest dies off and you can

see it from the true range of the bar

the average true range and you can see

it from The Exchange volumes as well

people are basically leaving no one's

talking about it anymore they miss out

and they only come back into the market

when it breaks into new fresh highs so

everything is still going along as we've

expected with the the macro cycle here

the quarterly are working the monthly

are working the the swings are working

the turns through March April are still

working so there's no reason to think

that this cycle is over but it seems

like we have got into that period where

the masses lose interest and we might

just grind out maybe there'll be a few

crashes along the way to take out some

of these significant lows but then you

start to feel that that dying out now

that dying out feel can happen here

maybe we get it here at 63 we break

above and get it again at 67 it can

happen at any point which is precisely

why I say don't leave the market just in

case this is invalidated uh at these

levels and we break a little higher to

67 to then

um consolidate at those levels with that

in mind cryptos have also been dying out

the feeling the the movement of the

market eth hit its 50% just this little

short-term 50% here at

3300 us had a nice pullback there at the

moment it looks like it's trying to at

least hold up to then push again so if

we get down to a shorter term time frame

just for this swing you can see it

pulled back right to the 50% level at

3,80 bucks bu so when cryptos get into

this grind of hitting a low then getting

rejected at a 50% level and coming back

to a shorter term 50% level you can see

how that squeeze in the range of the bar

occurs which then causes many people to

leave because there's nothing exciting

to do in the market and so they're just

waiting for something exciting to happen

this is the exciting time when no one

else is here it's different to how life

works you want everyone at the party you

want to enjoy yourself you want to you

know be chatting with friends and having

a good time you don't want that in the

markets you don't want to do that

because that's usually when those Peaks

happen these are the times where you're

you're basically in the library by

yourself studying the charts and

understanding that no one else is here

at the moment or a far less far less

people are here at the party and that's

the time that you want to be looking at

getting those sweet altcoin deals

similar sort of patterns happening for

salana it had its crash it bounced back

to 50% so that's this one right here all

right that's 50% there 162 it's been

rejected from there and it's back at

that 50% so we're starting to get this

contraction of ranges which again just

goes back to the old dying out uh

feeling that happens in the market so

that's what it looks like on the chart

important points to note would be the

significant lows that have started to

form if salana was to break down from

120 be cautious that it doesn't go too

much further than roughly 108 to 80

bucks I'm not saying it gets there but

just be cautious about those levels

because that would be a sign that maybe

salana is not going to do as well in

this next stage only because it could be

only because it would break down from

those levels right there significant

support levels that's all there is to it

but if it fades out here holds at these

levels maybe it does a flash crash to

those lows takes out some more stops and

then holds above roughly 120 to 140 no

big deal

nothing lost at that point Pendle also

looking relatively strong it could come

back a little further it's done some

pretty significant move to the downside

already 35% as we've covered with

altcoins they can go sort of 50 60 up to

80% from their peaks just look at where

that lines up with their previous zone

of consolidation the 50% levels at about

50% away from the top and to those

previous tops of pendal at roughly $320

it takes you down to about 57% so you

could still see this movement from 40 to

60% from the tops and it would still be

relatively strong for that altcoin so

I'm just looking at the alts against the

USD prices today fetch in the AI space

again same sort of thing it's pulled

back 54% from the top it bounced hit 50%

it got rejected once twice three times

and it's pulled back again and if I'm to

pull up a 50% for this level I dare say

that's going to be right through through

the middle check this out all right you

can start to see it with your with your

eyes top to the swing bottom it hit dead

on 50% closed just above it so if this

starts to break down under that level

probably going to come back and test

these lows again and test somewhere

around that sort of 170

to0 uh on on the price chart here so

keep those in mind for your altcoins

same rules apply watch the significant

lows that were formed roughly around the

13th of April and the previous lows on

the way up you don't want to see him go

back into the previous consolidation

zones that would be a huge red flag for

that altcoin just so you can see what a

red flag looks like I've got to pick on

Ada here it dropped back into the

consolidation Zone but you can see it

bounced away however it is now reversing

so if AER is to drop back underneath

sort of 45 40 to 45 cents it can still

go up in the next stages but it's

probably going to be a lot weaker than

altcoins that have managed to remain

above the consolidation Zone and above

support levels even if those are at

higher prices and this is a long way

from the top it doesn't matter the

idiots and I say idiots in the most

harsh way possible so that we can get it

through our heads idiots or it's for the

analysts on X and YouTube so people

don't get sucked into it they look at

the top oh this altcoin is down 80% from

the highs what if it just got back to

that old alltime high [ __ ] it's down

for a reason and it's much lower than

other alt coins for a reason because no

one is looking at the the buying this

thing there's nothing underlying uh

there's no underlying strength about

this coin that's why it's down 80 to 90%

from the highs at this stage when other

altcoins have gone up already they've

broken past

significant uh accumulation zones

they've broken past key resistance

levels and they're potentially holding

above a key 50% level of the ENT High be

Market there is strength behind those

altcoins that have done that so again I

say it extremely harshly to those guys

so that other people don't fall for it

those idiots that are saying this that

whatever altcoin is down by 80 90% still

at this stage after we've already seen a

pretty strong move for the majority of

altcoins are really setting up any of

their followers or members or anything

like that in their telegram groups for

huge failure and I see that often with I

had to do it with the xrp community this

hunk of junk is still at low levels so

with all of the strength that is outling

there in the market was not able to get

back above any sort of resistance levels

well it's just showing you that's a

piece of [ __ ] and you might in fact have

even better altcoins than this so I hope

you do if you want to share them put

them in the comments section that's

Bitcoin that's cryptos I'll go through

the usdt chart with you and the total

altcoin market cap in another video like

And subscribe that's uh the update for

today I hope you're having a fantastic

day enjoy your Summers and I'll see you

guys real soon take care and peace out