The rapid growth of the Chinese internet -- and where it's headed | Gary Liu

Summary

春节是中国一年一度最大规模的人口迁移，涉及30亿次旅行。技术进步如移动票务、数字身份扫描和人工智能优化路线，缓解了农民工回家的压力。中国互联网的发展不仅受到人口规模和政府支持的推动，还因为需求经济的驱动，为边缘化群体提供了创新动力。电商、在线教育等为农村地区带来变革，尽管存在限制，但互联网的增长显著改善了公民生活，为全球提供了启示。

Takeaways

• 🧳 中国春运期间，全球最大规模的人类迁移发生，40天内约有30亿人次出行。
• 🏭 2.9亿农民工是春运中最辛苦的出行者，他们一年中只有一次机会回家看望家人和孩子。
• 💸 农民工选择火车作为主要交通工具，因为飞机票价格接近他们一个月的工资。
• 🚄 火车旅行平均距离为700公里，平均旅行时间为15.5小时，铁路系统需承载3.9亿旅客。
• 📱 技术进步使得购票和出行体验得到改善，70%的票务销售通过移动和数字方式完成。
• 🆔 数字身份证扫描器取代了人工检查，加快了登车流程。
• 🤖 人工智能被应用于优化旅行路线，提高运输效率。
• 🚗 滴滴出行推出的“顺风车”服务，匹配驾车回家的车主与寻找长途路线的乘客。
• 🌐 中国互联网的发展在满足需求经济中推动了创新，特别是在服务弱势群体方面。
• 🏢 中国政府在网络基础设施上的投资，以及对标准和法规的坚持，促进了快速的共识和采纳。
• 🛑 中国正在推出覆盖全民的信用评分系统，奖励和限制基于诚实和正直等高度定性特征的公民。
• 🏫 中国的极端地形和规模创造了对教育创新的巨大需求，如“阳光课堂”这样的在线教育模式。
• 📈 中国互联网人口已达7.72亿，其中98%活跃在移动设备上，92%使用消息应用。
• 🛍️ 中国的电子商务平台淘宝拥有5.8亿月活跃用户，比亚马逊大80%。
• 🚴‍♂️ 中国的按需出行服务，包括自行车和汽车，每年提供约100亿次出行。
• 📊 中国的互联网普及率仅为56%，意味着超过6亿人尚未接入互联网，这是一个巨大的机会。

Q & A

中国的春运期间大约有多少人次出行？

春运期间，大约有30亿人次出行。

为什么大多数农民工选择乘坐火车回家？

因为火车票比飞机票便宜，飞机票价格接近他们一个月的工资。

农民工平均的旅程是多少公里？

农民工平均旅程大约是700公里。

春运期间，中国铁路系统需要处理多少旅客？

春运期间，中国铁路系统需要处理大约3.9亿旅客。

技术如何帮助改善农民工的购票和乘车体验？

通过移动和数字票务，以及数字ID扫描和人工智能优化旅行路线等方式，技术显著改善了农民工的购票和乘车体验。

滴滴出行推出的Hitch服务是什么？

滴滴出行推出的Hitch服务是一种新的服务，它将开车回家的车主与寻找长途路线的乘客配对。

中国的互联网发展有哪些特点？

中国的互联网发展特点是规模庞大，政府积极参与，以及对教育和人才的大量投资。

中国互联网的普及率是多少？

截至2017年底，中国互联网的普及率达到了56%。

中国的互联网用户数量在2017年底达到了多少？

2017年底，中国的互联网用户数量达到了7.72亿。

中国的“阳光课堂”是什么？

“阳光课堂”是一种数字教室，通过直播教学，让偏远地区的学生们能够接受合格的教师授课。

中国的互联网发展对农村地区有哪些积极影响？

中国的互联网发展通过电子商务和在线教育等方式，提高了农村地区的生活水平，创造了新的就业机会，并改善了教育资源的获取。

Outlines

00:00

😀 中国春运与科技助力返乡

中国春节期间，全球最大规模的人口迁移发生，涉及30亿次旅行。290万农民工返乡与家人团聚，面临交通选择有限和高昂的机票成本，大多选择火车，平均旅程700公里，耗时15.5小时。科技进步，如移动数字票务、数字ID扫描和人工智能优化路线，缓解了购票和出行压力。滴滴出行推出的Hitch服务，匹配自驾者与长途乘客，显著提升了交通系统的升级与创新。

05:02

🏭 中国互联网的快速发展与社会影响

中国的互联网发展不仅受到庞大人口和政府积极参与的推动，还因需经济和边缘群体的需求而加速。这种需求经济催生了创新，如电子商务、在线教育和数字新闻消费的增长。尽管存在审查和监控问题，互联网已显著改善了公民生活，特别是在农村地区，通过电商平台销售手工艺品和在线教育，为农村学生提供了新机会。

10:05

🎓 互联网教育改变中国农村学生的未来

中国的互联网教育通过直播课堂，为农村学生提供了与城市学生同等的教育机会。例如，甘肃的学生通过“阳光课堂”参与在线教育，接触到音乐、艺术等新科目和更广阔的世界。这种教育模式的创新满足了中国极端地形和规模带来的需求，目前已有5500万农村学生能够通过直播课堂接受教育，这一市场规模甚至超过了整个美国的K-12学生人口。

Keywords

💡春运

春运是中国特有的一种大规模人口迁移现象，通常发生在农历新年期间。根据视频剧本，春运期间有30亿人次的出行，是家庭团聚和庆祝的重要时刻。春运的主题与视频讨论的中国交通系统创新和改进紧密相关，因为这是推动这些变化的巨大需求之一。

💡农民工

农民工是指那些离开家乡到城市工作的人，他们通常在春节期间返回家乡。视频中提到，中国有2.9亿农民工，他们中的许多人一年中只有一次机会回家看望家人和孩子。农民工的存在和他们的出行需求是中国交通系统改进和发展的重要驱动力。

💡数字票务

数字票务是指通过移动设备和网络平台购买的电子车票。视频中提到，数字票务现在占到了销售的70%，极大地减少了火车站的排队现象。数字票务的普及是中国交通系统技术进步的一个体现，它提高了出行效率，改善了旅客体验。

💡人工智能

人工智能在视频中被提及为优化旅行路线的一种技术手段。它在交通网络中的部署有助于提高运输效率和减少拥堵。人工智能的应用是视频中讨论的中国技术创新的一个关键方面，展示了技术如何帮助解决实际问题。

💡滴滴顺风车

滴滴顺风车是滴滴出行推出的一项服务，它通过匹配开车回家的车主和寻找长途路线的乘客。视频中提到，仅在第三年，滴滴顺风车在上一假期就服务了3000万次出行。这一服务的创新体现了中国互联网企业如何满足特定需求并推动行业发展。

💡需要经济

需要经济是指以满足基本需求为主导的经济模式。视频中提到，中国创新和企业家精神的推动力之一是一个巨大的需要经济，服务于过去30年与中国经济繁荣分离的弱势群体。需要经济的概念强调了创新不仅仅是为了满足富裕阶层的需求，而是要服务于更广泛的社会需求。

💡社会信用评分

社会信用评分是中国正在推行的一种评价系统，它根据个人的诚信和正直等高度定性的特征来奖励或限制公民。视频中提到这一评分系统，展示了中国政府如何利用技术来加强社会管理和控制。社会信用评分是对中国互联网和科技领域监管的一个例子。

💡电子商务

电子商务在视频中被提及为推动中国农村地区发展的一种方式。例如，通过电子商务平台，农村生产者可以在线销售他们的产品，扩大销售范围。视频中提到的'淘宝村'就是指至少10%的家庭在线销售商品并创造收入的农村村庄，这体现了电子商务如何帮助农村地区实现经济增长。

💡在线教育

在线教育在视频中被描述为一种能够改变中国农村学生教育机会的方式。通过'阳光课堂'等项目，学生可以通过网络接受远程教师的实时教学，获得更广泛的教育资源。在线教育的普及是中国互联网发展对教育领域影响的一个例子，它有助于缩小城乡教育差距。

💡移动互联网

移动互联网是指通过移动设备如智能手机和平板电脑接入互联网的服务。视频中提到，中国的互联网用户中有98%是活跃在移动设备上的，这表明移动互联网在中国的普及程度非常高，是人们获取信息和服务的重要方式。

💡数字鸿沟

数字鸿沟指的是不同群体在获取和使用信息技术方面的差距。视频中提到，尽管中国的互联网发展迅速，但仍有56%的人口尚未接入互联网，这意味着有超过6亿人仍然处于离线和脱节状态。数字鸿沟的概念强调了技术普及的不平衡性，以及需要进一步努力以确保所有人都能享受到互联网带来的便利。

Highlights

中国春节期间，全球最大规模的人类迁移发生，40天内有30亿人次出行。

中国2.9亿农民工每年只有一次机会回家团聚，他们大多选择火车出行，平均旅程700公里，平均旅行时间15.5小时。

科技开始缓解春运压力，移动和数字票务占70%，减少了火车站排队时间。

中国最大的打车平台滴滴出行推出了“顺风车”服务，匹配驾车回家的车主和寻找长途路线的乘客。

中国互联网的发展不仅受到学术研究和企业需求的推动，还受到服务底层民众需求的驱动。

中国的互联网用户数量在2017年底达到了7.72亿，是多个国家人口总和的数倍。

中国的网络基础设施建设吸引了投资，政府的积极参与和监管促进了技术的快速采纳。

中国的互联网普及率仍只有56%，意味着有超过6亿人尚未接入互联网，这是巨大的市场机会。

中国的“淘宝村”数量从2013年的20个增长到2017年的2100个以上，带动了近50万家在线店铺和19亿美元的年销售额。

34岁的工程师罗昭柳利用中国的电子商务市场帮助他的村庄复兴，通过在线销售当地特产发酵豆腐。

中国有6000万留守儿童，他们的生活因父母外出务工而受到影响，但互联网教育提供了新的学习机会。

10岁的常文轩通过“阳光课堂”项目，能够接受远程直播教学，接触到更广泛的知识和体验。

中国的互联网虽然存在限制和监控，但其规模巨大，显著改善了公民的生活。

中国的互联网教育市场正在迅速增长，私人投资超过10亿美元，公共资金承诺到2020年投入300亿美元。

中国的互联网发展虽然不完美，但对曾经被遗忘的群体的生活产生了不可逆转的提升。

中国的互联网发展强调满足需求而非欲望，推动了好奇心、创造力和发展。

全球未得到服务的需求，如果成为我们发明的主要焦点，可能会带来更多的可能。

Transcripts

Once every 12 months,

the world's largest human migration happens in China.

Over the 40-day travel period of Chinese New Year,

three billion trips are taken,

as families reunite and celebrate.

Now, the most strenuous of these trips are taken

by the country's 290 million migrant workers,

for many of whom this is the one chance a year

to go home and see parents and their left-behind children.

But the travel options are very limited;

plane tickets cost nearly half of their monthly salary.

So most of them, they choose the train.

Their average journey is 700 kilometers.

The average travel time is 15 and a half hours.

And the country's tracks now have to handle 390 million travelers

every Spring Festival.

Until recently,

migrant workers would have to queue for long hours -- sometimes days --

just to buy tickets,

often only to be fleeced by scalpers.

And they still had to deal with near-stampede conditions

when travel day finally arrived.

But technology has started to ease this experience.

Mobile and digital tickets now account for 70 percent of sales,

greatly reducing the lines at train stations.

Digital ID scanners have replaced manual checks,

expediting the boarding process,

and artificial intelligence is deployed across the network

to optimize travel routes.

New solutions have been invented.

China's largest taxi-hailing platform, called Didi Chuxing,

launched a new service called Hitch,

which matches car owners who are driving home

with passengers looking for long-distance routes.

In just its third year,

Hitch served 30 million trips in this past holiday season,

the longest of which was further than 1,500 miles.

That's about the distance from Miami to Boston.

This enormous need of migrant workers has powered fast upgrade and innovation

across the country's transport systems.

Now, the Chinese internet has developed in both familiar and unfamiliar ways.

Just like in Silicon Valley,

some of the seismic shifts in technology and consumer behavior

have been driven by academic research,

have been driven by enterprise desires,

with the whims of privilege and youth sprinkled in every once in a while.

I am a product of the American tech industry,

both as a consumer and a corporate leader.

So I am well acquainted with this type of fuel.

But about a year and a half ago,

I moved from my home in New York City to Hong Kong

to become the CEO of the South China Morning Post.

And from this new vantage point,

I've observed something that is far less familiar to me,

propelling so much of China's innovation and many of its entrepreneurs.

It is an overwhelming need economy

that is serving an underprivileged populous,

which has been separated for 30 years from China's economic boom.

The stark gaps that exist between the rich and the poor,

between urban and rural

or the academic and the unschooled --

these gaps, they form a soil

that's ready for some incredible empowerment.

So when capital and investment become focused on the needs of people

who are hanging to the bottom rungs of an economic ladder,

that's when we start to see the internet truly become a job creator,

an education enabler

and in many other ways, a path forward.

Of course, China is not the only place where this alternative fuel exists,

nor the only place where it is possible.

But because of the country's sheer scale and status as a rising superpower,

the needs of its population have created an opportunity

for truly compelling impact.

When explaining the rapid growth of the Chinese tech industry,

many observers will cite two reasons.

The first is the 1.4 billion people that call China home.

The second is the government's active participation --

or pervasive intervention, depending on how you view it.

Now, the central authorities have spent heavily on network infrastructure

over the years,

creating an attractive environment for investment.

At the same time, they've insisted on standards and regulation,

which has led to fast consensus and therefore, fast adoption.

The world's largest pool of tech talent exists

because of the abundance of educational incentives.

And local, domestic companies, in the past, have been protected

from international competition

by market controls.

Of course, you cannot observe the Chinese internet

without finding widespread censorship

and very serious concerns about dystopian monitoring.

As an example:

China is in the process of rolling out a social credit rating

that will cover its entire population,

rewarding and restricting citizens,

based on highly qualitative characteristics

like honesty and integrity.

At the same time,

China is deploying facial recognition

across many of its 170 million closed-circuit cameras.

Artificial intelligence is being used to predict crime and terrorism

in Xinjiang province,

where the Muslim minority is already under constant surveillance.

Yet, the internet has continued to grow, and it is so big --

much bigger than I think most of us realize.

By the end of 2017,

the Chinese internet population had reached 772 million users.

That's larger than the populations of the United States, Russia,

of Germany, of the United Kingdom, of France and Canada combined.

Ninety-eight percent of them are active on mobile.

Ninety-two percent of them use messaging apps.

There are now 650 million digital news consumers,

580 million digital video consumers,

and the country's largest e-commerce platform, Taobao,

now boasts 580 million monthly active users.

It's about 80 percent larger than Amazon.

On-demand travel, between bikes and cars,

now accounts for 10 billion trips a year in China.

That's two-thirds of all trips taken around the world.

So it's a very mixed bag.

The internet exists in a restricted, arguably manipulated form within China,

yet it is massive and has vastly improved the lives of its citizens.

So even in its imperfection,

the growth of the Chinese internet should not be dismissed,

and it's worthy of our closer examination.

Let me tell you two other stories today.

Luo Zhaoliu is a 34-year-old engineer from Jiangxi province.

Now, his home region used to be extremely important to the Communist party

because this was the birthplace of the Red Army.

But over the decades, because of its separation

from the economic and manufacturing centers of the country,

it has slid into irrelevance.

Luo, like so many in his generation, left home at a young age

to look for work in a major city.

He ended up in Shenzhen, which is one of China's tech hubs.

As the young migrate,

these rural villages are left with only elderly,

who are really struggling to elevate themselves above abject poverty.

After nine years, Luo decided to return to Jiangxi in 2017,

because he believed that the booming e-commerce marketplace in China

could help him revive his village.

Like many rural communities,

Luo's home specialized in a very specific provincial craft --

making fermented bean curd, in this case.

So he started a small factory

and started selling his locally made goods online.

There have been many years of consumption growth

across China's major cities.

But recently, technology has been driving an explosion in craft goods sales

among China's middle and upper classes.

WeChat and other e-commerce platforms allow rural producers

to market and sell their goods

far beyond their original distribution areas.

Research companies actually track this impact

by counting what is called "Taobao villages."

This is any rural village where at least 10 percent of its households

are selling goods online and making a certain amount of revenue.

And the growth has been significant in the last few years.

There were just 20 Taobao villages in 2013,

212 in 2014,

780 in 2015,

1,300 in 2016

and over 2,100 at the end of 2017.

They now account for nearly half a million active online stores,

19 billion dollars in annual sales

and 1.3 million new jobs created.

In Luo's first year back home, he was able to employ 15 villagers.

And he sold about 60,000 units of fermented bean curd.

He expects to hire 30 more people in the next year,

as his demand rapidly rises.

There are 60 million left-behind children scattered across China's rural landscape.

And they grow up with at least one parent far away from home,

as a migrant worker.

Alongside all the general hardships of rural life,

they often have to travel vast and dangerous distances

just to get to school.

They account for 30 percent

of the country's primary and high school students.

Ten-year-old Chang Wenxuan is one of these students.

He walks an hour each way every single day to school,

across these deep ravines, in an isolated landscape.

But when he arrives at the small farming village in Gansu province,

he will find just two other students in this entire school.

Now, Chang's school is one of 1,000 in Gansu alone

that has less than five registered students.

So with limited student interaction,

with underqualified teachers

and schoolhouses that are barely furnished and not insulated,

rural students have long been disadvantaged,

with almost no path to higher education.

But Chang's future has been dramatically shifted

with the installation of a “Sunshine Classroom.”

He's now part of a digital classroom of 100 students

across 28 different schools,

taught by qualified and certified teachers

live-streaming from hundreds of miles away.

He has access to new subjects like music and art,

to new friends

and to experiences that extend far beyond his home.

Recently, Chang even got to visit the Frederiksborg Castle museum

in Denmark --

virtually, of course.

Now, online education has existed for many years outside of China.

But it has never reached truly transformative scale,

likely because traditional education systems

in other tech centers of the world

are far more advanced and far more stable.

But China's extreme terrain and size

have created an enormous and immediate need for innovation.

There's a tech start-up in Shenzhen that grew to 300,000 students

in just one year.

And by our best estimation at the Post,

there are now 55 million rural students across China

that are addressable and accessible by live-streaming classes.

This market of need is larger than the entire US student population

between kindergarten and grade 12.

So I'm extremely encouraged to find out

that private investment in ed-tech in China

now exceeds one billion dollars a year,

with another 30 billion dollars in public funding

that is committed between now and 2020.

As the Chinese internet continues to grow,

even in its imperfection and restrictions and controls,

the lives of its once-forgotten populations

have been irrevocably elevated.

There is a focus on populations of need, not of want,

that has driven a lot of the curiosity, the creativity

and the development that we see.

And there's still more to come.

In America, internet population, or penetration,

has now reached 88 percent.

In China, the internet has still only reached 56 percent of the populous.

That means there are over 600 million people

who are still offline and disconnected.

That's nearly twice the US population.

An enormous opportunity.

Wherever this alternative fuel exists,

be it in China or Africa, Southeast Asia or the American heartland,

we should endeavor to follow it with capital and with effort,

driving both economic and societal impact all over the world.

Just imagine for a minute what more could be possible

if the global needs of the underserved become the primary focus

of our inventions.

Thank you.

(Applause)