🔵 Global M2 Bitcoin Top Prediction, Compared with Past Cycles

Summary

In this video, the creator discusses their analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum's price cycles, focusing on the potential for a bull run and the impact of global financial trends. They explain their predictions for price movements, especially for 2025, and suggest that significant price increases for both Bitcoin and Ethereum may only be possible if the market cycle extends into 2026. The creator emphasizes the importance of accurately measuring market cycles and outlines how the upcoming months could shape the future of cryptocurrencies, especially considering the M2 chart and overall market trends.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by the global M2 money supply, as shown in historical cycles.
• 📅 Current cycle predictions suggest Bitcoin might top out in October 2025, based on M2 data and past market behavior.
• 📊 The market may experience a bull run until late 2025 or early 2026, with altcoins potentially peaking in December 2025.
• ⚖️ Predictions are based on historical patterns, but Bitcoin’s behavior may change due to new factors like Bitcoin ETFs.
• 🧩 The speaker suggests that a Bitcoin price over $250,000 or Ethereum above $10,000 is unlikely in 2025 without an extended cycle into 2026.
• 🔍 Indicators like Google search data, Coinbase rankings, and the CBBI index are essential for predicting the timing of the market cycle's peak.
• 📈 Bitcoin’s price might be following an extended cycle pattern that could last longer than previous cycles.
• ⚠️ The possibility of the cycle extending into 2026 is not guaranteed, and the global economic situation could impact the predictions.
• 💡 Predictions about altcoin and Bitcoin behavior are fluid and based on evolving data, which makes precise forecasting difficult.
• 📅 December 1st, 2025 is identified as a potential top for altcoins, based on the extended cycle hypothesis.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of the analysis in the video?

The analysis focuses on the potential price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum, particularly within the context of market cycles, global M2 money supply, and how these factors may affect cryptocurrency prices in the near and far future.

What is the importance of the three monthly candles discussed in the video?

The three monthly candles are used to measure the breakout from the all-time high of a cryptocurrency. This helps in predicting potential price movements over the next few months, providing a basis for projections such as Ethereum reaching $10,000 or Bitcoin exceeding $250,000.

Why is December 1st significant in the context of the analysis?

December 1st is significant because it aligns with the expected timing for a potential market bull run, based on the analysis of the three monthly candles and the breakout from the all-time high. The prediction suggests that by this date, Ethereum might see a substantial price increase if the cycle continues.

What does the speaker mean by 'measuring apples to apples'?

The phrase 'measuring apples to apples' refers to comparing similar data points for a more accurate and consistent analysis. In this case, the speaker is emphasizing the need to measure price movements from the breakout of the all-time high rather than using other variables that might not be as reliable or comparable.

Why does the speaker suggest a correction in the altcoin top prediction?

The speaker suggests a correction because the initial measurements of price movements from the bottom to the top of the cycle were flawed. After reassessing, the speaker concludes that the most accurate prediction is based on the breakout from the all-time high, leading to a revised altcoin top prediction for December 1st.

What is the significance of the global M2 chart in the analysis?

The global M2 chart is important because it tracks the supply of money in circulation, which can influence asset prices like cryptocurrencies. The speaker uses this chart to argue that a potential price peak could occur around October, aligning with the broader economic factors affecting the market.

Why does the speaker believe a Bitcoin price over $250,000 in 2025 is unlikely?

The speaker believes that a Bitcoin price over $250,000 in 2025 is unlikely because the current cycle might not extend that far. Instead, the speaker suggests that such a price is only possible if the market cycle extends into 2026, implying that 2025 might not see that level of price growth.

What is the speaker's view on Ethereum potentially reaching $10,000 in 2025?

The speaker shares a similar view regarding Ethereum, stating that a price of $10,000 in 2025 is unlikely. Instead, the price might only reach that level if the market cycle extends into 2026, implying that the current market conditions might not support such a high price within 2025.

What does the speaker mean by 'an extended cycle' in the context of cryptocurrency price predictions?

An 'extended cycle' refers to a prolonged market cycle that continues beyond its expected duration, potentially leading to higher-than-expected price growth. In this case, an extended cycle into 2026 is seen as the key factor that could enable Bitcoin and Ethereum to reach their higher price targets.

What is the potential impact of an extended market cycle on altcoins in 2026?

An extended market cycle into 2026 could lead to a parabolic move for altcoins, pushing their prices to new highs. This is contingent on the continuation of the Bitcoin cycle and the broader market conditions, which could provide the necessary momentum for altcoins to experience significant growth.