How the next hot war will be played out

Summary

The video discusses the likely outcomes of an India-Pakistan war, highlighting the growing cooperation between China and Pakistan since 2019, particularly in military exercises and cyber capabilities. Dr. Victor Gao's comments emphasize China’s support for Pakistan’s sovereignty, with warnings against premature military action. The script explores the evolving military dynamics, including cyber warfare, air superiority, and the potential role of Chinese support. It underscores the strategic importance of areas like Siachen and stresses that a war should be avoided for the sake of peace and stability in South Asia, with a call for India to reassess its approach to peace.

Takeaways

• 😀 China and Pakistan have a longstanding military cooperation, with China providing advanced military technology and support to Pakistan.
• 😀 Dr. Victor Gao’s commentary highlights China's support for Pakistan’s sovereignty, emphasizing that China will back Pakistan in any military conflict with India.
• 😀 The speaker believes that China has given up hope of having normal relations with India as long as the Modi government remains in power.
• 😀 If a conflict breaks out between India and Pakistan, China is prepared to intervene and take action, particularly in nuclear-related matters.
• 😀 The China-Pakistan military relationship has intensified since August 5, 2019, with joint exercises like Shaheen 8 and Shaheen 9 focusing on advanced military operations.
• 😀 Shaheen 8 and Shaheen 9 exercises have evolved from basic dogfights to complex, multi-domain operations involving air, missile defense, and electronic warfare.
• 😀 Cyber warfare will be a central aspect of any potential India-Pakistan conflict, with Pakistan using cyberattacks against India, potentially supported by China’s cyber capabilities.
• 😀 The use of cyberattacks in India, particularly by China, is part of a larger strategy of reconnaissance and damage assessment, especially against civilian infrastructure.
• 😀 The Pakistan Air Force will lead the military campaign in an India-Pakistan conflict, supported by China’s intelligence and military coordination.
• 😀 Siachen Glacier is identified as a key vulnerable region in any India-Pakistan war due to its strategic location between Pakistan and Chinese forces.

Q & A

What does Dr. Victor Gao say about the India-Pakistan conflict?

Dr. Victor Gao emphasizes that China and Pakistan have a long-standing military relationship, where China supports Pakistan’s sovereignty. He condemns terrorism in all forms but stresses the importance of thorough investigations before military action is taken. He also warns against India jumping to conclusions in military matters.

How does Dr. Victor Gao view India's military actions in Operation Sindur?

Dr. Gao criticizes India for rushing into military action during Operation Sindur without fully exploring other options. He suggests that India should have pursued all avenues before resorting to a military response.

What is the significance of Shaheen exercises between China and Pakistan?

Shaheen exercises are joint military drills between the Pakistan Air Force and the PLA Air Force. These exercises have evolved over the years, becoming more complex, including multi-domain operations, missile defense, and electronic warfare, highlighting the growing military cooperation between China and Pakistan.

How did the relationship between China and Pakistan change after August 5, 2019?

Following August 5, 2019, there was an intensification in the military relationship between China and Pakistan. Both countries held significant joint military exercises like Shaheen 8 and Shaheen 9, showcasing deeper military cooperation and coordination.

What role does Field Marshal Asim Munir play in Pakistan’s defense strategy?

As the five-star field marshal, Asim Munir holds substantial authority over Pakistan's defense strategy, including nuclear capabilities. His role supersedes the responsibilities previously held by the four-star Chairman of Joint Chiefs, making him a central figure in military and nuclear decision-making.

What does the speaker say about the potential for a hot war between India and Pakistan?

The speaker suggests that while the pause in Operation Sindur remains, the potential for a hot war between India and Pakistan could increase as both sides prepare for future conflict, especially between 2026 and 2027, coinciding with the tenure of key military leaders.

What cyber warfare tactics are discussed in the transcript, and how might they affect an India-Pakistan war?

The transcript highlights how cyber attacks, often attributed to Pakistan but possibly aided by China, could be used to disrupt critical infrastructure in India, such as government websites and nuclear plants. These attacks serve as reconnaissance, assessing vulnerabilities before more targeted cyber operations during a conflict.

Why is Siachen considered a vulnerable point in the India-Pakistan conflict?

Siachen is seen as a vulnerable point because it is strategically sandwiched between the Pakistan and Chinese forces. This location provides China with total visibility of the glacier, making it a potential focal point for conflict, especially given the Chinese presence in the region.

How does the speaker suggest that China would support Pakistan in the event of a conflict with India?

The speaker implies that China would offer comprehensive support to Pakistan, particularly by providing technological and satellite assistance. This support would ensure that Pakistan’s military operations, especially in the air and cyber domains, are effectively coordinated and executed.

What role would Pakistan’s Air Force play in the military campaign against India, according to the transcript?

Pakistan’s Air Force is expected to take the lead in the military campaign, focusing on establishing air superiority with the support of Chinese technology. The air force would use fighters, missiles, and drones, while the army would follow up once air dominance is achieved.