Why India Will Not Go To War With Pakistan

Summary

In this analysis, the speaker explores the geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, highlighting why full-scale war is unlikely. While India faces multiple strategic challenges, including its conflict with China and logistical concerns, it is not expected to initiate a hot war with Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan may only respond militarily if India violates the Indus Water Treaty. The speaker also discusses India's past 'pretenses of war,' which are unlikely to recur due to heightened alertness from Pakistan. Overall, while skirmishes may continue, an all-out war remains improbable.

Takeaways

• 😀 India is unlikely to start a hot war with Pakistan, but tensions and conflicts along the Line of Control may continue and intensify.
• 😀 India faces a five-front challenge due to its 2019 revocation of Article 370 and 35A in Jammu and Kashmir, which has led to increased support for Pakistan from China.
• 😀 The five fronts India faces include: the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, the need to protect logistics in Kashmir, the potential for war with Pakistan, a new form of cyber warfare, and the critical need for operational logistics.
• 😀 China’s support for Pakistan could result in heightened PLA activities on the LAC, making it difficult for India to move military assets from the China front to the Pakistan front.
• 😀 India’s military logistics in Kashmir, which involve supply lines for critical equipment, need to be heavily protected, and cannot rely on local populations due to their alienation.
• 😀 Tactical military operations between India and Pakistan would likely be focused on attrition, with both sides potentially having comparable military forces, making numbers a decisive factor.
• 😀 India’s air force faces a shortage of platforms, which could hamper its ability to defend against Pakistan while also managing threats from China.
• 😀 A whole-of-nation approach to war could involve cyberattacks and non-kinetic warfare from China, which might severely disrupt India’s infrastructure, including the internet.
• 😀 Pakistan has significantly bolstered its regular supply of ammunition, spare parts, and critical assemblies from China, reducing the logistical challenges faced during past conflicts like Kargil.
• 😀 India is unlikely to engage in a pretense of war like it did in the 2016 surgical strikes and 2019 Balakot airstrikes, as Pakistan is on high alert and would likely retaliate more forcefully if such actions were repeated.

Q & A

Why does the speaker believe India will not start a hot war with Pakistan?

The speaker argues that India faces a multi-front challenge, particularly with China’s involvement and the logistical strain in Kashmir. The Indian military’s resources are spread thin across these fronts, making it unlikely for India to engage in a full-scale war with Pakistan.

What are the five key challenges that India faces according to the speaker?

The five challenges India faces are: 1) China’s support for Pakistan’s sovereignty, 2) the protection of India's logistics lifeline in Kashmir, 3) the traditional military conflict with Pakistan, 4) the threat of a whole-of-nation cyber and non-kinetic war, and 5) the critical need for operational logistics and supplies.

How does China’s support for Pakistan affect India’s military strategy?

China’s support for Pakistan complicates India’s military strategy by preventing India from fully focusing on Pakistan. Due to China’s activities on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), India’s military resources are divided, making it difficult for India to mobilize its assets for a potential conflict with Pakistan.

Why is the logistical lifeline in Kashmir considered critical by the speaker?

The logistical lifeline in Kashmir is essential for India's military operations. The region's lifelines, such as transportation and supply routes, need heavy protection. In the event of a war, these lifelines are crucial for India’s ability to maintain its military strength and sustain operations.

What challenges does India’s air force face in a potential conflict with Pakistan?

India’s air force is at a disadvantage due to a shortage of military platforms. The Indian Air Force chief has acknowledged a shortage of platforms, which limits India’s ability to deploy air assets effectively, especially with the need to allocate resources to the China front.

What is meant by the 'whole of nation' approach to warfare, and why is it significant?

The 'whole of nation' approach refers to a strategy where not only military forces are involved in a conflict but also cyber capabilities, space operations, and other non-kinetic strategies. China’s focus on developing its aerospace and cyberspace forces suggests a shift toward a more comprehensive form of warfare, which India must be prepared for.

What role does cyber warfare play in the potential conflict between India and Pakistan?

Cyber warfare is a significant concern, especially with China’s advanced capabilities. If a full-scale conflict were to break out, cyber attacks could be a key element in the conflict, targeting India’s infrastructure, defense systems, and communication networks. The speaker suggests that India needs to prepare for the possibility of large-scale cyber warfare.

How does Pakistan’s access to Chinese military supplies impact the balance of power?

Pakistan’s access to regular supplies of ammunition, spare parts, and critical assemblies from China gives it an advantage in any prolonged conflict. This continuous supply chain ensures that Pakistan is better prepared for attrition warfare, whereas India historically faced challenges securing supplies in the Kargil War.

Why is the 2019 Balakot airstrike considered a 'pretense of war' by the speaker?

The speaker claims that the 2019 Balakot airstrike was more of a political maneuver by the Indian government than a true military operation. It was not a full-scale military engagement but rather an act designed for political purposes, a 'pretense of war,' according to the speaker.

What is the potential consequence of Pakistan’s reaction to the Indus Water Treaty issue?

Pakistan has clearly stated that any attempt to suspend or redirect water under the Indus Water Treaty would be considered an act of war. This issue could lead to significant escalation if India were to alter the water flow to Pakistan, making the water dispute a possible flashpoint for direct military conflict.