Historian predicts how Russia's war in Ukraine could end

Summary

In a thought-provoking interview, war historian Hein Goemans discusses the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, predicting its prolonged nature and the challenges in negotiating peace. He highlights the role of war in providing crucial information for both sides, making a total defeat unlikely. Goemans also examines Putin's internal political risks, suggesting that any peace settlement may be unsatisfactory and that Putin is unlikely to agree to a loss. The interview concludes with concerns over the war’s potential to spread beyond Ukraine, especially to neighboring regions like Moldova.

Takeaways

• 😀 Professor Hein Goemans predicted in early March 2023 that the war in Ukraine would last a long time, and this anniversary is likely not the last of the ongoing conflict.
• 😀 Very few wars end in total defeat. Goemans suggests that the war in Ukraine will not end with the defeat of Russia or Ukraine, but rather through a negotiated settlement.
• 😀 War provides crucial information for both sides, which helps them assess each other's strength and resolve. This process is still ongoing in Ukraine, as both sides try to learn about their opponent's capabilities.
• 😀 Putin's strategy of targeting civilian populations to weaken Ukrainian resolve has been used in many conflicts before but has historically failed.
• 😀 Russia is attempting to undermine Western support for Ukraine, but if that strategy fails, the difficulty of fighting will shift in Ukraine's favor.
• 😀 Any peace deal that allows Russia to retain some control over Ukrainian territory is unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine without security guarantees from NATO.
• 😀 Putin’s failure to honor agreements in the past, such as the 2014 annexation of Crimea, makes it difficult for any future peace deal to be credible.
• 😀 If Putin loses the war, he risks personal political consequences, including imprisonment or death, which increases his unwillingness to negotiate or sign a peace agreement.
• 😀 Putin may be engaging in a 'gamble for resurrection,' where he believes he has nothing to lose and will continue the war despite its devastating costs for Russia.
• 😀 There is a real risk that the war could spread beyond Ukraine, particularly if Putin seeks to justify further aggression by attempting to 'liberate' Russian-speaking populations in neighboring countries, such as Moldova.

Q & A

Why does Hein Goemans believe the war in Ukraine will last for a long time?

Hein Goemans predicted early on that the war would be prolonged due to the nature of modern warfare, where both sides learn from the battlefield. He suggests that wars rarely end with a complete defeat of one side, and this conflict will require a negotiated settlement rather than a clear victory or loss.

What role does war play in the context of negotiations and resolution, according to Goemans?

According to Goemans, war provides crucial information. It allows both sides to understand each other's military strength, resolve, and commitment. This intelligence gathering process helps shape the eventual outcome, with the hope that negotiations will lead to a resolution once enough information is gathered.

How does Goemans view the potential for Russia to reach a negotiated settlement?

Goemans argues that any settlement involving Russia maintaining control over Ukrainian territory will not be acceptable to Ukraine unless it includes guarantees for its future security, which only NATO could provide. This creates a significant barrier to negotiation, as Putin cannot credibly promise such guarantees.

What are the domestic political challenges Putin faces if the war ends in defeat for Russia?

Goemans suggests that Putin faces severe domestic consequences if he signs a peace deal perceived as a loss. Historically, leaders who sign losing peace deals have faced removal from power, and in Putin’s case, this could result in his death, either through assassination or other forms of punishment.

Why does Goemans believe Putin has nothing to lose in the war?

Goemans explains that Putin sees himself as having no way out if he loses the war. His survival as leader of Russia is tied to his success in this conflict, and therefore, he is unlikely to negotiate or settle unless he achieves something he can frame as a victory.

How does Goemans predict the war could evolve, considering the risks of escalation?

Goemans warns that if Putin perceives that a resolution to the conflict is unattainable, he may extend the war beyond Ukraine, potentially targeting Moldova, a neighboring country, as a means of claiming a broader 'victory' and maintaining support at home.

What is Goemans’ opinion on the role of NATO in the resolution of the conflict?

Goemans suggests that NATO is a key player in the resolution of the conflict. For Ukraine to accept a settlement where Russia retains some control over its territory, NATO would need to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. However, this is complicated by the fact that NATO’s involvement is one of the reasons Putin launched the invasion in the first place.

What are the challenges associated with reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine?

A major challenge is the lack of trust and credibility on both sides. Putin's unwillingness to accept a peace deal that involves territorial concessions, and Ukraine’s demand for strong security guarantees, makes any potential peace deal difficult to negotiate. Additionally, Putin’s fear of domestic repercussions for a 'loss' in the war complicates any possible resolution.

How does the concept of war as a 'gamble' for survival apply to Putin’s strategy?

Goemans describes Putin's approach as a 'gamble for survival' because, for Putin, losing the war could mean the end of his political career and possibly his life. This high-stakes situation drives him to continue fighting, as he sees no alternative to achieving a victory or maintaining power.

What is the likelihood that the war in Ukraine will spread to other countries, according to Goemans?

Goemans indicates that there is a risk of the conflict spreading, particularly if Putin seeks to justify the war to the Russian public by framing it as liberating Russian-speaking populations in neighboring countries, such as Moldova. However, this would depend on his domestic calculations and the perceived success or failure of the current conflict.