The Landing
Summary
TLDRIn this comprehensive video script, Bob Lucas discusses the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and the potential for a left translated cycle, where the market could reach a peak in 2024. He emphasizes the difficulty of predicting exact price points but suggests that the current market dynamics indicate a faster cycle. Lucas also touches on the concept of 'ordinals', a type of non-fungible token on the Bitcoin blockchain, and how they can be used to store digital objects with provenance. He shares his belief in the potential of ordinals for future utility and scalability on the Bitcoin network. Additionally, Lucas outlines an airdrop plan for followers of his series, offering a unique way to reward engagement and participation in the Bitcoin community.
Takeaways
- đ The Bitcoin market has experienced significant changes, potentially indicating a left-translated cycle that could peak in 2024.
- đ Bob Lucas discusses the possibility of a left-translated cycle versus a traditional cycle, emphasizing the difficulty in predicting exact price points.
- âł Lucas highlights that Bitcoin's current market trajectory is ahead of previous cycles, pointing to a faster cycle that aligns with increased institutional involvement.
- đ€ He differentiates between predictions and possibilities, advising a focus on the latter and being aware of the risks of being overly committed to a specific narrative.
- đ The speaker is a firm believer in the ordinal movement for Bitcoin, seeing it as a way to reward followers and secure digital objects on the Bitcoin chain.
- đĄ Ordinals are likened to NFTs, offering a means to store digital objects on the blockchain, providing security and proof of ownership.
- đ The script touches on the potential of Bitcoin to become more correlated with traditional assets as it matures and gains significance in the financial system.
- đ§ Lucas suggests that the Bitcoin market is somewhat isolated from macroeconomic factors like interest rates and recession, behaving according to its own ecosystem.
- đ He warns of the risks of using leverage or overextending in investments, given the unpredictable nature of the market.
- đŻ The strategy for investors is to stay disciplined, be patient, and be ready to adapt strategies in real-time as the market unfolds.
- đ The speaker plans to airdrop ordinals for free to followers and sell some to cover costs, with the aim of rewarding the community and supporting Bitcoin's chain security.
Q & A
What is the main topic of discussion in the video?
-The main topic of discussion is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle, with a focus on the potential left translated cycle and its implications for the market.
What is a 'left translated cycle' in the context of the video?
-A left translated cycle refers to a situation where the peak of the Bitcoin cycle occurs earlier than the midpoint, which traditionally has been around the 24-month mark in previous cycles.
Why does Bob Lucas believe the current Bitcoin cycle might be left translated?
-Bob Lucas believes the current cycle might be left translated due to the accelerated move up to the all-time high level, increased awareness, and speculative moves, suggesting a final blow-off move in a longer 16 or 20-year cycle.
What is the significance of the all-time high in the Bitcoin 4-year cycle?
-Hitting an all-time high in the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is significant because it typically draws attention from a broader audience, including media and retail investors, which can lead to increased adoption and rapid price increases.
What does Bob Lucas suggest about the role of predictions in trading Bitcoin?
-Bob Lucas suggests that predicting an exact price or time for the peak is almost impossible, and instead, traders should focus on playing the possibilities that make logical sense over the next 6 to 9 months or into the next year.
Why is Bob Lucas giving away ordinals to followers of his series?
-Bob Lucas is giving away ordinals as a way to reward people who have been following his series and to show his belief in the ordinal movement for Bitcoin, which he sees as a way to store digital objects on the Bitcoin chain with provenance.
What is the role of institutional investors in the current Bitcoin cycle?
-Institutional investors, including ETFs, big capital, and possibly sovereign wealth funds, are contributing to the faster movement of the Bitcoin market towards all-time highs, as they bring in significant capital and influence market dynamics.
How does Bob Lucas perceive the future of Bitcoin in relation to traditional finance?
-Bob Lucas perceives that Bitcoin is still in its early stages and mostly operates as its own ecosystem. However, he anticipates that in the future, as Bitcoin's market cap grows, it will become more correlated with traditional assets and move differently within the financial system.
What is the potential timeline for the peak of the current Bitcoin cycle according to the left translated cycle idea?
-According to the left translated cycle idea, the peak could occur towards the end of the year, specifically in the months of October, November, or December.
How does Bob Lucas propose to manage the risk of an unexpected market downturn?
-Bob Lucas suggests staying disciplined, being aware of the risks, and not leveraging too much. He also mentions the possibility of scaling out of positions as the market gets more stretched and sentiment becomes more extreme.
What is the purpose of the raffle for the first 365 ordinals?
-The raffle for the first 365 ordinals is a way to distribute these unique tokens to followers and supporters of the series, symbolizing their participation and contribution to the Bitcoin journey.
Outlines
đ Introduction to Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle and Market Developments
Bob Lucas introduces the video, discussing the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and recent significant market changes. He highlights the possibility of a left-translated cycle and the potential for a peak in 2024. Lucas emphasizes the challenge of predicting prices but focuses on exploring possibilities within the next 6 to 9 months. He also teases a discussion on 'ordinals' related to the Bitcoin chain.
đ Understanding Left and Right Translation in Market Cycles
Lucas delves into the concept of left and right translation in cycles, a phenomenon observed across various asset classes. He challenges the assumption that Bitcoin's market will indefinitely follow a right-translated cycle pattern and suggests that a left-translated cycle, indicating a faster move to an all-time high, might be more likely. He also discusses the role of institutional investors and the accelerated pace of the current cycle.
đ Speculative Moves and the Potential for a Market Blow-off
The speaker outlines his thoughts on the current market dynamics, suggesting that Bitcoin has entered a speculative move that could lead to a peak within 6 to 8 months. He differentiates between predictions and possibilities and advises on strategies without specifying price targets. Lucas also briefly touches on the concept of long-term cycles, hinting at a potential 16 to 20-year cycle for Bitcoin.
đ€ Weighing the Possibilities of Bitcoin's Market Trajectory
Lucas presents three possibilities for Bitcoin's market trajectory. The first is a left-translated cycle with a high probability of occurring, which could lead to substantial price increases by the year's end. The second involves a cooling-off period followed by a base-building phase, culminating in a peak towards the end of 2022. The third, less likely scenario, is a significant market downturn towards the next four-year cycle low by the end of 2026.
đ Cycle Analysis and the Importance of Understanding Market Trends
The focus shifts to the importance of understanding Bitcoin's cycles, which are defined from low to low, with peaks varying each cycle. Lucas explains that while the last few cycles have peaked around the three-year mark, this may not be the case going forward. He anticipates a 12-month bear market decline starting from late 2026, providing an opportunity to re-enter positions at the next cycle low.
đ Cycle Intertwining and the Impact of Long-Term Market Trends
Lucas discusses how different cycles intertwine, with the four-year cycle being influenced by a longer 16 or 20-year cycle. He suggests that the current market behavior indicates a final peak in the long-term cycle, which could lead to a significant retracement by 2026. He also addresses the potential for Bitcoin to not follow the traditional pattern of dropping below the previous cycle's low due to its unique nature and adoption curve.
đĄ Navigating the Market and Strategies for Capitalizing on Cycles
The speaker shares his insights on how to approach the market, emphasizing the difficulty of picking an absolute top in a mania-driven market. He suggests potential strategies, such as scaling out at higher prices and re-entering positions after a significant decline. Lucas also discusses the importance of staying disciplined and patient, and not getting swayed by market volatility or fear of missing out.
đ Bitcoin's Ecosystem and the Role of External Factors
Lucas expresses his views on Bitcoin's independence from traditional financial systems, suggesting that it operates on its own ecosystem. He downplays the impact of macroeconomic factors like interest rates and recession on Bitcoin's price, arguing that new capital inflows from various sources are driving the current cycle. He encourages viewers to stay focused on Bitcoin's unique market dynamics.
đ Ordinals as a Form of Digital Provenance on the Bitcoin Chain
The video concludes with a discussion on 'ordinals,' a form of non-fungible tokens on the Bitcoin chain. Lucas explains the concept of ordinals as a way to store digital objects with provenance on the blockchain. He shares his belief in the potential of ordinals to increase adoption and utility for Bitcoin and mentions his plans to airdrop free ordinals to followers as a way to commemorate their participation in the Bitcoin journey.
đïž Ordinal Distribution and Rewarding Community Involvement
Lucas details his plan for distributing ordinals, including a raffle for the first 365 ordinals and sales of unique pieces to cover inscription costs and support a designer. He outlines the different types of ordinals, such as common, rare, and legendary, each with specific meanings related to Bitcoin's history. He also hints at potential future utilities for ordinal holders and expresses his intention to reward long-term community members.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄBitcoin
đĄ4-year cycle
đĄLeft translated cycle
đĄRSI (Relative Strength Index)
đĄOrdinals
đĄETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)
đĄAll-time high
đĄSpeculative move
đĄMacro environment
đĄLayer 2 technologies
đĄAirdrop
Highlights
Bob Lucas discusses the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and significant changes in the market structure.
A left translated cycle is developing and may be moving towards a high in 2024.
The majority of Twitter replies focus on the left translated cycle possibility and super cycle potential.
Lucas differentiates between predictions and possibilities, emphasizing the difficulty of predicting price.
The potential for a final blowoff move in a longer 16 or 20-year cycle is suggested.
Bitcoin has hit an all-time high 16 months from the 4-year cycle low, differing from prior cycles.
The market's accelerated move and the involvement of institutional players indicate a faster cycle.
Lucas proposes a 60% probability of a left translated cycle and its implications for market behavior.
The possibility of a traditional cycle with a peak in late 2025 is also considered.
A third, less likely scenario involves a significant bear market towards the next 4-year cycle low.
The importance of cycle lows for predicting market trends is emphasized over the timing of peaks.
Lucas outlines strategies for scaling out of positions as the market approaches a potential peak.
The potential impact of macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and recession on Bitcoin is discussed.
Ordinals, a form of non-fungible tokens on the Bitcoin chain, are introduced as a new development.
Lucas shares his belief in the potential of ordinals for Bitcoin and their role in the future of the blockchain.
An airdrop of 1435 free ordinals is announced to reward followers of the series.
Details on how to participate in the raffle for the free ordinals are provided.
The potential future utility of these ordinals, such as exclusive content for holders, is mentioned.
Transcripts
hello followers of the 4-year Journey
this is Bob Lucas here on March 29
2024 with another installment of the
4year journey I hope you're doing well
I'm coming to you from Station 3 here in
New York City and want to talk today
about some very interesting developments
in the Bitcoin 4year cycle it's only
been about a month since the last video
I normally space them out every couple
of months but I think we've had some
very significant changes in the
structure of this Market that warrants
kind of coming out here today and
talking a lot about what could well be a
left translated cycle that has been
developing and is in the process right
now um of moving up towards a high in
2024 so I want to cover today mostly
about this left translated cycle idea
where we stand in the current cycle I
listen to a lot of the replies on
Twitter asking for kind of what this
video should be about and the vast
majority talked about the left
translated cycle possibility or the
super cycle possibility and sort of a
lot of questions around kind of where
does this peak what's the the top and I
want to briefly talk about predictions
versus possibilities and make sure that
you understand that predicting price is
almost impossible to do and how we
should play the possibilities that are
coming up here over maybe the next 6 to9
months in a left translated cycle idea
or into next year on a traditional cycle
and then unrelated to the 4-year Journey
but also I think significantly related
at the same time is this 4-year cycle
ordinals that will be dropping for free
to followers of this series now I know
ordinals are foreign to some of you um
and some of you who are Bitcoin Maxes or
or Believers in Bitcoin as currency only
probably won't like what I have to show
you there but that's that's okay um you
don't have to stick around for the last
portion of the video but I will cover a
really interesting idea about just
rewarding people who have been following
the series with some ordinals that have
been Meed on the Bitcoin chain I have
I'm a pretty firm believer in the
ordinal movement for Bitcoin I'll cover
that in the last portion of the video
but let's get stuck into this analysis
here on the left translated cycle and
also where we stand and and looking at a
monthly chart the first thing we want to
obviously point out that I covered last
month but has now really unfolded is
that we've hit an all-time high in this
4-year cycle in 16 months from the
4-year cycle low and that's significant
because when you look at prior cycles
that we've seen by this point in the
cycle the market had retraced and was
nowhere near those alltime high levels
and took until month 24 before it
pierced the all-time high level and then
moved up towards an all-time high for
the cycle and the same can be said for
the 15 beginning cycle that took also
exactly 24 months so you see the
fouryear Cycles to this point have
mirrored each other very well they've
spent about 2 years getting to the
alltime prior High building a base
accumulation and then then once they
reached the 2-year point which is the
midpoint of the 4-year cycle they went
into this oneyear kind of parabolic
almost like move where sentiment once it
hit all-time high sentiment rapidly
increased adoption increased but also
just general exposure um rapidly
increased at that point CNBC for example
and just celebrities and so on getting
involved in the cycle and that's that
last year almost 12 months to a peak for
a 3-year high so we spent from a from a
4-year cycle low 2 years to a peak one
year kind of blowing off year three
almost exactly as the peak and then sort
of 12 months down into the bare Market
low both of those or last three Cycles
were very consistent in that behavior
and that characteristic and that's LED
kind of everybody now to jump onto this
fouryear cycle bandwagon and talk a lot
of about the fact that we should in this
cycle continue for 24 months sorry 36 35
36 months getting us to the end of next
year for the next Peak and then your
your 12 months down to the next foure
cycle low rinse and repeat and continue
that process now I've advocated and
talked a lot about a left translated
cycle possibility even well before this
began and actually introduced the idea I
think it was back in 2019 in some of my
videos and I've done that because left
and right translation in Cycles occurs
in every asset class it's not unique in
any way to bitcoin or the idea being
unique to bitcoin it is just how markets
behave in Bull and bare Trends and what
has kind of uh been a Hallmark of
Bitcoin since almost Inception is that
it's been in this one long secular bull
market uptrend only interrupted by these
little cyclical bare Market moves so
youve got three years up one year down
that's the definition of a right
translated cycle because the right
translation means that the peak in the
cycle measured from a low to a low
occurs well beyond the midpoint but the
Assumption here that I think a lot of
people in the space of making is that
that kind of pattern of right translated
Cycles must exist or does exist
indefinitely and some of that has to do
with sort of stock tolow ideas that
limited Supply means Bitcoin will always
go up inde definitely um and just also
just people I think being a little naive
about a market that is going to be
perpetually in this bull secular Trend
and I don't think that's going to be the
case I'm not advocating for massive
secular bare Market declines but I do
believe that at some point and I think
it's a possibility once coming that
Bitcoin will go into more of a secular
bare Market that may not just be one
year of decline but two years or more
and I'll cover that shortly let's just
go back to sort of where we stand right
now uh as you can see all-time highs RSI
above the 90 here on the monthly chart
and every time it's hit above that 7 7y
level on the RSI and into the overboard
levels it was the beginning of a run
towards all-time highs and typically
sort of corresponded with the touching
of the all-time high level so we've got
a situation here where this Market is
around about 8 months or more ahead of
where it was in Prior Cycles which means
it's a faster cycle and that makes sense
we've now got an ETF in play we've got
the big boys involved got big Capital
not just crypto boys but we've got
institutional players probably Sovereign
wealth funds
[Applause]
[Music]
different from the beginning it's been
moving faster it's been getting up
towards alltime highs quicker and again
all the dips are being bought quickly
and that to me speaks to the possibility
that we are in sort of a final blowoff
move in a longer 16 or 20 year cycle now
why 1620 well because many other asset
classes essentially revolve around this
sort of 16 to 20 years secular side
and I do believe that Bitcoin will also
go through something similar a good
example is sort of the dot boom when the
internet came on board and everyone saw
the promise in the future it went on for
you know kind of like the tech boom
started maybe in the mid 80s but then
the internet came along as well and you
essentially had a number of these
fouryear Cycles within this larger or
longer degree cycle that peaked around
2000 then went into a pretty significant
bare market for for more than a couple
of years and took a long time to recover
those highs the technology was never in
question at that point um it was only
just a matter of the market just being
in a long-term secular bull trend for a
long enough period where it just needed
much more time to digest itself back and
to reset the Cycles so Cycles are on
this 4-year time frame but there is a
longer degree cycle that hasn't surfaced
itself yet because it's a such a new
technology we haven't even gone through
one of those long secular Cycles as of
yet so there's two main reasons why I
think the left translated cycle idea is
probably the most uh likely to be
occurring at this moment and the the
main reason is that we've had that fast
accelerated move up to the all-time high
level the level where awareness comes
back in not just from crypto natives but
from the broad Retail Landscape from
this from media in general once you hit
an alltime high it gets the attention
and then you begin to go into a
speculative move if we've entered this
speculative move which it looks as if
we're already there then typically a
move to a peak is only around about 6 to
8 months in this
cycle in 17 once it hit this level again
wasn't too long before for and forget
the price right because obviously it
doesn't scale as well but from a Time
standpoint you had this move up to a
peak around the end of the year in this
case um not where the three years the
threeyear mark would be and then also as
an example when it hit sort of this
level in the last
cycle bit of a different structure right
there but same kind of thing peaked
within 6 to 9 months and formed the
top so essentially once Bitcoin made the
all-time high and the
attention um became significant it was
at a point where it sort of reached this
escape velocity which it didn't really
turn back from and it feels to me as if
we're now in that at that point where
it's almost too late for this Market to
consolidate and spend 6 n months moving
sideways before going again I think once
it reaches a level like this it doesn't
typically pull back so that is my main
view for for thinking that this could be
a left translated cycle the other idea
for a left translated cycle really has
to do with the long-term cycle I talked
about um and if we have a 16-year cycle
or even a 20e cycle we're going to see
at some point we need to find a peak
sooner and a larger Peak a blowoff kind
of peak a peak that ends or Peaks for
now at least and sends the market into a
massive high that then uh comes back
down in a crashing um sort of uh in
scenario that then just takes a number
of Cycles a number of weekly Cycles but
couple of years perhaps down into that
next fouryear cycle low to reset the
longer term
cycle so where's that Peak all right
here's where we get into predictions
versus possibilities because I'm really
not here to predict a time and a price
for this this High not the game not the
name of the game for me uh my goal is to
maximize return and I measure return by
the amount of Bitcoin I can accumulate
over multiple Cycles um by sticking hard
to a prediction I think what um a lot of
analysts or Traders or investors end up
doing is boxing themselves into a
narrative and a bias that they find very
difficult to get away from when the
market doesn't unfold exactly as they
expect and predict and I think a lot of
people make these very firm predictions
because they're looking for clout
unfortunately uh clout to be able to say
this is exactly what I had predicted
look at how it turned out and if they're
right kudos to them but um that's not
necessarily um because of their
abilities just that they got it right um
we want to find possibilities that make
sense logical sense of course you can
you can map out a hundred different
possibilities and one of them is going
to be right you have to stick with
narratives and possibilities that have a
good high probability of unfolding and
the way I see this market right now is
there three main possibilities and one
of them here is of course this left
translated cycle idea that we are now
into the all-time high level and entered
the blower phase of a cycle and that one
is fairly not I wouldn't say
straightforward simple but it basically
means that yeah we'll get some pullbacks
within here but on the monthly chart you
probably won't notice it too much but a
move up here to an October November
December some point towards the end of
the year to form a peak before the
midpoint before that 24mon period in the
cycle now some of you going to ask
where's the price on that and I just
don't know I don't know because when you
look at Price Cycles even the
17 cycle is a good example you look at
these last two monthly candles at one
point just within 60 days of a peak it's
actually less than 60 days it was
trading at 5,300 and it peaked at almost
$20,000 so you're looking at a 4X move
over the last 45 days so it's going to
be difficult in the end especially if we
have sort of a monster move over the
last couple of months you know you may
be looking at price and just throwing
out numbers at 150 and if you look at
this as an example you don't know if the
last 3 or 4 weeks sends Bitcoin up to
300 350 400,000 before peaking it's just
very difficult from a from an actual
price perspective to find that top but
we're looking at timing right now and
looking at some of the indicators to
tell us where may be so extremely
stretched and then possibly the last 3
or 4 weeks in an absolute massive kind
of mania blowoff move for a peak in the
cycle this idea I give just the throwout
numbers probably 60% that we're in a
60% probability that that this left
translated cycle is where we're headed
towards now the other possibility which
I think is still very valid but requires
us to cool off almost immediately and
spend a number of months building a base
around this all-time high level around
about where we are now possibly within
60,000 and 880,000 as a
range so that would basically just mean
that we pull back from this point back
towards a 10-month moving average
possibly challenge this
$70,000 level again and then pull back
one more time and build a base all the
way
into I would say November December of
the end of the year and then begin the
climb up to towards the 35 month 34
Monon period like we've seen in the
prior three cycles that would be more of
your traditional cycle a cooling off
here A A
reaccumulation at this higher level and
then the final phase of the cycle to
unfold now that would mean that we have
to see a significant cool off in some of
these indicators which I don't think
we're going to get based on what we're
seeing right now ideally would like like
to see this right translated I think it
makes it easier to trade it also makes
it easier when the eventual top comes
around um for getting out of scaling out
of positions uh more or easier because
once you hit that three-year Mark you
know the four-year cycle is about to
Peak and especially if we're starting to
hit some pretty big numbers and we spent
the six or seven eight months moving to
a high it becomes a lot easier to begin
to scale out at that level cuz you know
a Peak is coming soon the third and
final idea which I give very little
Credence to is simply that maybe we come
up one more time and then we enter into
a pretty significant pretty nasty bare
Market down towards the next fouryear
cycle low which happens of course not
until the end of
2026 that I give maybe 5% but it's real
and it's there and I don't know if
there's much we can do about that
unfortunately from a a whole holding
perspective I think if that sort of
scenario was to unfold I think where we
get away with it in holding is the idea
that the fouryear Cycles have allowed us
to get in pretty much at the bottom over
the last two cycles so we're buying in
at the very lows and that that type of
scenario I don't think would come back
down to that level but obviously would
retrace a significant amount but it's
there and I think the most important
reason why is it's it's worth pointing
out is for people that are using perhaps
leverage or just mortgaging you know
their house for example you have to
realize that you know sometimes stuff
can happen and sometimes things just
don't go the way everybody expects and
you know you don't want to be in a
position where you have to liquidate
assets or sell Bitcoin uh after a very
prolonged bare market so I'm just
throwing that out there more as sort of
cautionary that there are no assurances
and no guarantees in anything we do that
a market has to go in this certain way
everyone is so fixated on this cycle
heading up well past the six figure Mark
into big big numbers and they look at it
almost as a complete guarantee and when
people look at things as a guarantee
they end up taking on so much more risk
than they really should be or not
thinking about the risk so keep that in
the back of your mind I think that's
important but I also want to focus on
the cycle lows here as well and just
give you a little bit more of a
background this because I do see quite a
bit of interpretations of cycles that
talk about the tops quite a bit and
really it's really the wrong way to look
at Cycles Cycles they have varying
degrees of the wavelength so basically
time so a a a cycle over time oscillates
and we've identified in Bitcoin and it's
actually very consistent in most asset
classes that four years is a good kind
of oscillated nothing to do with the
harving bitcoin's harving um but over a
4-year period perod The Market comes
from a from a absolute trough where
sentiment is Absolut in the gutter all
the way up to a your foric Peak and then
back down in a bare market decline down
to the next cycle which is the end of
one cycle and of course the beginning of
a new cycle so Cycles are always and
always have been defined from a low to a
low that's what a cycle encompasses
where the peak occurs will vary by cycle
to cycle now we've been kind of fooled
in some ways in thinking that because
these Cycles have all kind of appeared
right at that three-year Mark that
that's going to be the uh the outcome
here again in this cycle and the next
cycle and the one after that and I'm
pretty comfortable and confident saying
that that's not going to be the case in
the future although may still be the
case for this current
cycle so our goal here is to predict the
price lows of the cycle I think we've
done that really well in the last two
cycles and what I'm most confident about
and again it's not a prediction but what
I'm really most confident about is the
idea that into late 2026 we're going to
see at a minimum a 12-month bare market
decline so 12 months I say that from a
traditional right translated cycle to a
peak and that will be something that
allow us again in the next fouryear
cycle low when everybody is finally
capitulating once more that we'll be
able to then re-enter positions at the
next fouryear cycle low so our goal
therefore is to understand that Cycles
do oscillate over the 4-year period and
try our best to identify where the peak
in the cycle may occur and historically
again around the end of 2025 is where we
would look for the next cycle low but
we're now at least I am on the lookout
for a change change in that behavior a
change in that structure where we're
looking for a peak this year in the
4-year cycle and then what that would
mean if that was to occur is that yes we
may get sort of a double pump we had
something early on occur here back in
2013 where we had a massive move and
then a pullback and then a second pump
but that can still all happen within
this year so for example if we make a
big run up into the summer months maybe
let's call it 1301 40 we could pull back
one and then go one more time into the
end of the year for a double pump to a
peak that's kind of irrelevant at this
point um but a peak up here by the end
of this year forms left translated
meaning before the December midpoint of
the cycle barely left translated but
still is forms a peak but then as you
notice it would
spend uncharacteristically from the
prior Cycles it would spend that sort of
24 to 26 months in a bare market decline
down to the next foure cycle and that
would happen
mostly because this move here would be
really
outsized uh and really stretched to to
the high side here and again I'm not
throwing out price predictions but a
really big kind of significant move over
the next six to seven or eight months up
towards a
peak and then exhaust itself to the
point where it's just going to take a
couple of years to unwind that that
doesn't necessarily mean that we have to
retrace the 80 or 90% again a lot of
that could be you know massive uh
counter Trend moves all the way back up
maybe even a double top in
2025 maybe something similar to what we
saw here but not to the not to a new
high it could just take just takes time
overall to unfold in that
cycle so troughs are what are most
reliable and the top though is not
defined by um by by this timing it's
defined by the trend of the longer
degree cycle and this is I guess where
it gets a little confusing but Cycles
are intertwined so we have a 60-day
cycle we have a weekly cycle over sort
of 20 to 26 we period then we have the
4-year cycle so on the way up in the
fouryear cycle these weekly Cycles are
forming right translated they're Rising
for 20 weeks and they're dropping for 6
weeks for example so they're going three
or four steps forward one step back
three or four steps forward one step
back once the 4year cycle Peaks then you
see the reverse you have left translated
weekly cycles and 60-day Cycles you're
spending fewer days moving up and then
more days in Decline and that's how you
get that Trend back down in the cyclical
bare Market but for a 4-year cycle the
four-year Cycles are again defined by
the longest cycle the 16 or 20 year
cycle in this Market which again we
haven't seen yet but if we are on the
cusp of a peak in the 16-year cycle or
the 20e cycle then we're looking for one
big final move up to a peak in that yet
to be defined longer degree cycle and to
get a longer degree cycle you generally
need at least a left translated shorter
cycle the four-year cycle to unfold to
give us time to
consolidate and burn off the sentiment
of the full 16-year period encompassing
the entire history of Bitcoin I do
apologize for the honking in the
background being in New York City
sometimes it's unavoidable so we're
looking here at an example and I'm going
to try and sort of crudely draw
this so what I mean by this uh 16e cycle
is is that over this period we
have one
long 16e cycle or 20e cycle possibly 14
years
up 2 years down possibly you know 13 and
three possibly even 17 and three you get
the point this is a cycle that I believe
uh will end in
2026 and within this you have these
4year cycles and because in the early
portion or the right translated portion
of this long cycle you're in a secular
bull market uptrend what you have is a
4year cycle that comes 3 years to a
peak then one year
down 3 years to a peak and then one year
down 3 years to a peak one year
down I'm trying to align this as well as
I can
and then you've got this one to 2ear
Peak left translated
cycle and then
down so you have a situation where
you've got this long cycle in that's
rising and to get the the rising portion
of the cycle you have these threee
Cycles three years up to a peak and then
one year down so over a 4-year period
you're spending the majority of the time
moving higher and then a shorter
cyclical decline down into that cycle
low and so on in this last cycle the
longer term cycle the 16-year cycle
begins to head down and it needs over a
16-year period it needs more than one
year to decline over a 4year period you
can get that three up one down three up
one down on the longest cycle you need
at least sort of 14 um two years down so
14 up two down for example so this fits
in with a lot of the narrative a lot of
the ideas I've been sharing since
2017 that we are now kind of in this
final peak of this long 16-year cycle it
doesn't call for an end to bitcoin's
price
um acceleration it just means that we
need or we'll probably be looking for a
longer term degree decline into the next
fouryear cycle low now
historically in this last
4year cycle in typical asset classes you
would see this 4year cycle decline go
below the prior 4year cycle low so in
this case you'd be looking for an
eventual move below this 4year cycle low
now that's in traditional psycho
analysis I think Bitcoin is unique in
that sense um I think it is
revolutionary of course and I think it's
still very very early in its you know
its adoption and its curve that we won't
see anything like that but I do think
we'll see a significant retracement down
into a 2026 low and I think it's more
likely to come with a move over a 2-year
period so this is my idea of a left
translated cycle and why it exists and
why this Market behavior and this action
that we've seen over the last 16 months
to a high is this accelerated move and I
guess some of the Elliot wave folks are
kind of talking about this final wave
and that aligns well even though I'm not
an aliot wave guy in anyway um and not
necessarily a follower of it uh I do see
the alignment that here makes a lot of
sense with this longer term cycle that
we're
seeing so how are we going to play this
that's the million dooll question right
we can predict all we like we can get it
right but in the end what's going to
matter is what's in the portfolio um I
don't think I I predicted or got out of
the last cycle as well as I could have
actually I know I couldn't have I didn't
um and I want to do better in this cycle
and it's not going to be easy that's the
the first answer picking an absolute top
in a Mania Market is next to impossible
to do um it it just it just is now
hopefully this will begin to look a lot
like the 2017 move that was something I
was able to get out right near the top
and that's because it occurred late in
the 4year cycle and also came on a
extremely extremely speculative uh
environment right near the end it was
just obvious on social media and all the
channels that Bitcoin was heading up
towards a peak in the cycle so um I
guess what we'll have to do is play it
more real time when the when it comes
it's not a horrible idea if you've gone
sort of
Allin to put in some type of scaling out
um strategy where you're starting to
take tranches off the table at higher
prices I don't think we're anywhere near
that level yet I don't think we are at
an oversold sorry overbought level on um
on any of the indicators that weren't
sort of scaling out we've only just hit
an all-time high I do believe in this
cycle again we're going to stretch to a
peak and if it's in a left translated
cycle idea I think we're going to get
some pretty big numbers before we need
to start being concerned that this
Market has peaked I think we're at least
3 to 4 months away from that first
possibility in this cycle and so we'll
have future videos to cover where we
could be looking at maybe scaling out
but just just be assured that it's
something that obviously we want to try
and uh and land here as best as possible
over the coming 12 months now if we get
this sideways move over the next 6
months
then that is probably ideal that will
build a significant base that will allow
for kind of this super cycle idea into a
peak late in 2025 that will be easier to
trade or to exit from positions it's
this left translated cycle idea that
makes it difficult because it does
introduce the double pump possibility at
some point which makes it difficult
because you might get out right at the
top of the first pump and everything
looks great and then the second one
doubles from that point so that will be
also something that we'll have to just
pay attention to as the as the cycle
unfolds but yeah I mean look we we'll
have to just play it week by week month
by month if we get up to this higher
level and just keep a firm eye and and
and finger on the pulse on what
everybody is talking about just how
extreme or how you know how stretched
sentiment is and then I don't think it
would be a bad or horrible idea that we
begin to take Bitcoin off the table into
cash and sit then and wait patiently for
other opportunities we may also even
look for a strategy if we get up high at
some point and it's really stretched we
could look at sell at some point there
and then on a 40 to 50% decline possibly
from that Peak re-enter that position
and then see what reaction we get and if
we get a reaction High higher which you
think you should there's always a
counter Trend move after the first Peak
keep the position and then look at where
we bought back in or where the low may
have formed and if it rolled over so
instead of getting a double pump you get
this one move up it comes back down the
first time re-enter at say an arbitrary
40% decline from a peak and then if it
comes up and does not make a new high
and rolls over at that point or begin to
roll
over then you could employ a strategy
where you then exit that extra position
on the break of that low okay that again
that's something I'll begin to cover it
goes a little bit against sort of the
idea that we buy only at the fouryear
cycle lows we sell near the top and then
we wait for the next fouryear cycle low
in a left translated cycle again it's a
different Playbook so we're going to
have to look at possibly different
strategies for trying to make sure that
one we profit from the cycle as much and
as best as possible but two that we're
not left extremely uh pretty much on the
sidelines on yet another move that goes
up to make a high by the end of the year
so a lot of this is just going to have
to be a feel for where the market is and
how it's trading and what sentiment is
like more importantly as we approach
those higher
levels one more thing that came up a lot
in the questions for this video was sort
of interest rates the FED macro possible
recession and so on look my views on
that uh that Bitcoin still is mostly
although it's becoming much more
intertwined with traditional Finance it
still mostly is its own ecosystem and is
trading on its own and still in initial
first wave or first cycle price
Discovery so I I don't look for
correlations all that much I think when
you start getting into correlations on
the economy and the fed and and
liquidity and so and all these other uh
metrics that you can look at uh I think
that it just introduces far too many
variables in the analysis and makes it
confusing and I think good example is
the recession possibility and where and
and the yield curve inversion for
example that was something that was
prominent a year ago a year and a half
ago and the market have just ripped
higher and continued to rip higher
essentially ignoring those metrics and I
think that has left a lot of people
sidelined kind of waiting for a
recession or the higher interest rates
was not going to lead to any demand for
for Bitcoin and we see nothing we see
the opposite we see a faster cycle than
we've ever seen so put all the uh
correlation possibilities aside for now
and just I think appreciate that um
Bitcoin is still seeing a flood of new
New Capital come in from all different
sources and new sources and bigger
sources that's driving this cycle I
think for the next 16e cycle or 20 year
cycle from 2026 and Beyond then we're
looking at higher market caps where
Bitcoin is far more significant far more
relevant in the entire uh Financial
system that it will be far more
correlated to traditional assets and it
will move differently at that point for
now I still think we're in this sort of
final blowoff we now have this
Confluence of everybody involved
traditional original crypto natives the
retail folks from 17 and and recently
the last cycle and of course traditional
Finance
institutions some sovereigns and um
everybody now I think is on board and
that's why I believe that we're headed
towards one major peak in this longer
term cycle that uh is driving this
Market higher so you know we just have
to put all the noise aside and just stay
in position stay disciplined we will see
some volatility some significant
volatility at certain points there's
going to be a temptation to sell if we
hit 100,000 in the next few months or
over by the summer there's going to be
this fear of of not banking all your
profit going to have to pull all that
aside and and stay as disciplined as
possible looking for an extreme blowoff
move in the 4-year cycle to then start
to look to scale out just as everybody
um is you know everybody that you know
and every in all of the media and of
course again Grandpa and Grandma and
everybody else uh kids in high school
for example all buying Bitcoin and
talking about all coins and everything
else again as if it's something that
can't lose and can only make money we
we're not at that point yet that's why
it just needs more patience we need more
patience and more discipline and uh
we'll do well if we can stick to that
we'll try and land the peaks in this
cycle as best as possible uh no
guarantees there but that's the benefit
and the great thing about the fouryear
cycle is that we do have um the entries
at the low points on our side so that is
the 4-year Journey video for today thank
you for for listening now if you're not
into ordinals and don't like ordinals or
think they're a scam uh you can drop off
thanks very much for being here
today so what's an ordinal uh I think
many of you know but if you don't know
it's basically like an nft a
non-fungible token that exists on many
of the other blockchains essentially
it's a way to store um some type of
object on the Chain digitally so digital
objects um on the chain for attorney so
being able to store a relevant image for
example uh a link there's many things
you could store on chain that will take
advantage of bitcoin's security and its
blockchain nature so something that's
going to be there in the future in 5
years 10 years 20 years even 100 years
perhaps be able to look back and say
that a certain image or certain object
was uh inscribed on the chain that it
exists and that the holder of that
object is the owner of that object that
they were there that they participated
that they have that provenance that they
are the owners and I think that's a
perfect use case for a chain like
Bitcoin I know a lot of Maxes think it's
spam I disagree personally I think
actually what the ordinal movement of
late has done and yes a lot of it is
Spam a lot of it is junk there's no
doubt about that but that's just people
experimenting and using the chain in
different ways even Satoshi had
mentioned different use cases for the
chain howy of course uh talked a lot
about digital objects trading cards for
example on chain so I think the very
early original Maxis would have been
embrace it would have embraced this
concept and this idea but what I like
about or laws as well is that it has
spurred new discussions about how we can
get more adoption more utility
around the Bitcoin chain and it's also
allowed for developers to begin building
more scalable Solutions we know
lightning I'm sorry to say has been
pretty much a failure I think the design
is not scalable and sustainable it's
just too difficult to use in many cases
as well setting up channels and so on um
maybe this Spurs ideas on new layer 2
type Technologies built on bitcoin so
this could be a way
um to get better and more scalable ways
of using Bitcoin in the future so it's
an experiment in general but being able
to store an object on the chain that you
own that is yours that is proven
provable to be yours and with that
provenance that can be there for the
future I think it makes a lot of sense
so I believe in ordinals uh I'm not here
coming to you on the popularity of
ordinals I minted ordinals in the first
week uh I have around seven different
ordinals that are fouryear cycle images
on the Chain I was doing that via
command line script before any websites
were up or any tools were up I did that
because I saw immediately what value uh
that brought and I thought it was a very
cool idea so I minted a lot of ordinals
seven ordinals sub 100,000 ordinals that
are going to be part of this collection
I was fairly early to nft so of course I
again I'm a collector of of that space
But I also think more importantly I mean
this is a Bitcoin Journey it talks about
Bitcoin Cycles so what better way to
moralize the 4year journey series and a
series that I think has impacted
positively so many people by inscribing
uh basically tokens images um of
appreciation that you will hear that
will part of this journey that we were
one of the early ogs right I mean um in
10 20 30 years time all everybody here
involved today are going to be ogs in
some in some ways so um that is what I'm
doing here they're all mostly free I
mean we've got,
1435 ordinals that are going to be
airdrop free and I'm going to cover the
Dynamics behind that only 19 will be
sold and they will be sold mostly to
cover the $30 odd th000 cost of
inscribing and the designer behind this
who is a Station 3 artist and designer
who has put a lot of sweat and uh help
behind station three here in New York in
many different ways and is also designed
these ordinals I want to reward him so
he's taking a good portion of the small
amount that will be raised and the rest
will just go back to artists and events
here at Station 3 so it's not something
that I'm obviously going to be wanting
to profit from and it's going to be a
small amount overall so I want to reward
people who have followed and we'll do
that by a ra that I'll show you in in a
minute um that you can join they will be
free and then we'll also do some some
drops to some of the other communities
I'm part of and then in the next video
we'll also do another 365 representing
one year to complete the the the ordinal
drop for the last fouryear cycle I do
have the
idea that will have one oral for each
day of the Cycles so this is only a
working Pro ress please keep that in
mind in fact these two here have already
changed or will change but what we have
is U 629 ordinals that represent green
days in the last foure cycle 576 that
represent red or down days 169 that
represent 5% moves from uh tip to tip in
that day and then 41 of them that
represent 10 days in the sorry 10% moves
in the cycle so pretty rare at that
point giving them sort of common
uncommon rare and epic names beyond that
there will be some one of ones um and
these are what we call
legendaries and uh at the moment there
is four of each but they will change
color and style slightly to be one of
ones and each one of these represent
different things so there's kind of the
anniversary of the Genesis block within
the fouryear cycle four times it
occurred the first uh transaction uh the
pizza trans actually the pizza
transaction is here um the first
transaction the white paper uh
publication date and then Satoshi
disappearance so just kind of uh
celebrating certain key dates that
occurred at some point in its history
and then having an ordinal that would be
a one of one so each four of each will
have four different colors unique for
one of ones that will be for sale in the
um on the collection these are the only
ones that will be for sale along with
four very unique only one of each um
pieces that represent the start of the
4year cycle the end of the 4-year
cycle the all-time high of the cycle and
then uh a pretty important time in that
last fouryear cycle was that significant
Co crash where everything seemed to be
coming to an end so four these mythics
will also be for sale anybody that buys
any of the four mythics will get one of
each of the others as for free and
anybody not including a legendary
anybody that buys a legendary will also
get one of these sent to them as well so
um this is a way just to kind of you
know again embrace the ordinals uh
technology embrace the chain that helps
transaction fees this project will
generate around about
$30,000 in transaction fees alone to the
minor so I I like to think of it as a
way to also support the security of the
chain help uh in the adoption of
activity on the Bitcoin chain and again
immortalize this this great movement
this fouryear cycle movement and how
it's helped a lot of people here so how
do you get one there's a link in the
bottom of the video it's a 24-hour
raffle only for the first
365 uh you enter that you need an orinal
address if you don't know how to do an
orinal address uh I suggest you first uh
discover that make sure to only include
your ordinal address they will be
randomly raffled and then probably
within the next two weeks they will be
minted and sent directly to your
ordinals address the other ones here
that I mentioned will be on the magic
Eden website in about a week maybe 10
days and they will be available I'll
also provide that link there's currently
already four of them that are sitting up
there they those are the sub 100,000
inscriptions that were inscribed a year
ago those are what we call Genesis they
will not repeat they are the the Lynch
pen of the the whole collection so I
hope you appreciate these as as a way to
um uh to sort of again IM moralize this
collection uh there may be some utility
that comes with these in the future like
possibly um some exclusive videos just
for holders of of these ordinals
possibly a Discord of some type yet to
be determined not a promise in any way
but there may be some some cool utility
that comes out of these and these again
represent the last foure cycle for the
cycle between 2018 and 2022 once we give
out all of these 1435 ordinals we'll
begin to then give out ordinals for this
current cycle once we catch up with
giving out the other ones I'm also going
to go back into prior videos maybe some
of the original videos from four to five
years ago and if people had put comments
on there I'm going to ask you in the
next video possibly to provide and reply
to one of your old comments with your
orals address and airdrop a good amount
of them to people that were in and
involved in the initial original videos
and commented on videos just finding
ways to reward people that are really
just part of this journey so thanks for
listening hope you're all going to be I
hope you're well and more information to
come on on this drop but the link below
for the raffle is there thanks for being
here wishing you all the very best
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