Bitcoin: Can The 4 YEAR CYCLE Save BTC? - NOT What You Expect!

Summary

This video script discusses the recent significant drop in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, with a focus on the deviation from macroeconomic trends. The speaker explores the possibility of Bitcoin reconnecting with its long-term bullish cycle, despite the current bearish sentiment. They also highlight the importance of the 4-year cycle in guiding Bitcoin's price action and provide insights into potential recovery scenarios. Additionally, the script mentions a VIP sale on Telegram, exchange bonuses, and a trading course, offering viewers resources to navigate the volatile market.

Takeaways

• 📉 The recent drop in Bitcoin's price to around $53,000 has caused concern, but the speaker believes there's a chance to salvage the trends that were broken due to this drop.
• 🔄 Despite the drop, the speaker suggests that the overall bullish market trends are not completely broken, as they are based on weekly and monthly chart indicators which have not been technically invalidated yet.
• 💡 The speaker emphasizes that even if the macro trends are broken, the macroeconomic environment remains bullish, and the deviation in cryptocurrency prices is unusual and may not last.
• 🔮 The speaker discusses the possibility of Bitcoin reconnecting to the 4-year cycle, which has historically provided clarity and guidance for Bitcoin's price action.
• 🔑 The speaker mentions the importance of the $61,000 level for Bitcoin, suggesting that a rapid surge back above this level before the weekly candle close could salvage some macro trends.
• 🚫 The speaker does not believe the current situation indicates a bear market, distinguishing between a traditional bear market and the current deviation from macroeconomic trends.
• 📊 The speaker highlights the unusual reverse correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin over the past month, which is a deviation from the norm.
• 💰 The speaker discusses various factors that may have contributed to the deviation, including government actions, overvaluation, and potential market manipulation.
• 🛑 The speaker warns that the current price action has damaged the macro trends significantly, and the total cryptocurrency market cap has broken below important support lines.
• 🤔 The speaker presents different scenarios for the future of Bitcoin's price, including a potential reconnection to the 4-year cycle, a recovery if certain price levels are reached, or a continued deviation from macro trends.
• 🛍️ The speaker advises caution with altcoins, suggesting that Bitcoin's position should be assessed first before considering re-entering the altcoin market.

Q & A

What was the significant event that occurred in the cryptocurrency market over a day ago according to the script?

The significant event was a big drop in the price of Bitcoin to the $53,000 region and a similar drop in the total cryptocurrency market cap, which fell below its ascending support line.

What does the speaker believe about the possibility of salvaging the broken trends from a few days ago?

The speaker believes there is a chance to salvage the trends because they are not technically completely gone yet, and a rapid surge upwards to get back above the 61k level before the weekly candle close could potentially save some macro trends.

What is the speaker's view on the macroeconomic environment in relation to the current price action of Bitcoin?

The speaker believes that the macroeconomic environment is undeniably bullish, and the current price action of Bitcoin, which is deviating from this environment, is unusual and likely due to unique factors.

What is the '4-year cycle' mentioned in the script, and why is it significant for Bitcoin's price action?

The '4-year cycle' refers to a pattern in Bitcoin's price action that has historically offered clarity and guidance. The speaker suggests that reconnecting to this cycle could provide a more clear direction for Bitcoin, even if other macro trends are broken.

What unique factors are suggested to have dragged Bitcoin's price down, according to the script?

The script mentions several factors including the German government selling an ETF, overvaluation, potential market manipulation, and the impact of the ETF release causing Bitcoin to move too fast and break all-time highs before the halving event.

What is the importance of the 61k level for Bitcoin in the context of the script?

The 61k level is a critical macro support zone for Bitcoin and a monthly chart level. If Bitcoin can get back above this level before the weekly candle close, it could potentially salvage the current macro trends.

What is the speaker's stance on the possibility of a bear market given the recent price action?

The speaker does not believe that the current price action indicates a traditional bear market. They suggest that even if the macro trends are broken, the long-term trend of Bitcoin following the macroeconomic data, which is still bullish, will likely prevail.

What is the significance of the total cryptocurrency market cap chart's five-step pattern mentioned in the script?

The five-step pattern signifies stages in the market cycle, with step four being the final step before a parabolic bull market with an altcoin season. The speaker discusses invalidation factors for this pattern, suggesting that the recent price drop has caused significant damage to these macro trends.

What are the potential scenarios for Bitcoin's price action according to the script?

The potential scenarios include: 1) A bear market that is not traditional and could last a couple of months, 2) A recovery if Bitcoin manages to close the weekly candle above 61k, suggesting a deviation, and 3) Bitcoin failing to close above 61k and eventually reconnecting with the 4-year cycle, providing more macro predictability.

What is the speaker's strategy regarding altcoins in the current market situation?

The speaker has cut most of their altcoin positions and is not interested in buying back altcoins until they see Bitcoin in a decent position, such as reconnecting to the 4-year cycle. They believe that Bitcoin will determine the direction of the rest of the market.

What additional services or offers are mentioned in the script, and what are their benefits?

The script mentions a VIP sale on Telegram with a 24-hour remaining window, offering four or more trading plans per week with a 78% win rate, access to a group chat for market discussion, and a discounted price for a limited time. Additionally, there are sign-up bonuses and trading fee discounts for Bitx and Bingx exchanges, and a sale on a 'Become a Trader' course for learning trading and technical analysis.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Cryptocurrency Market Drop Analysis

The speaker begins by addressing the recent significant drop in Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market, which saw Bitcoin fall to the $53,000 region. They highlight the importance of the support line that was breached, which originated from November, and discuss the potential for market recovery. Despite the drop, the speaker believes that the bull market trends are not entirely broken, as they are based on weekly and monthly chart indicators. They suggest that a rapid recovery could salvage these macro trends. The speaker also emphasizes that even if these trends are broken, the macroeconomic environment remains bullish, and the market could reconnect with the 4-year cycle, providing clarity and direction for Bitcoin.

05:02

🔄 Deviation from Macroeconomic Trends

This paragraph delves into the unusual deviation of the cryptocurrency market from the macroeconomic data and other markets. The speaker notes the stark contrast between the performance of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin over the past month, with the S&P 500 experiencing growth while Bitcoin and altcoins suffered substantial losses. They attribute this deviation to a multitude of factors, including potential market manipulation and overvaluation. Despite this, the speaker remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, asserting that the current deviation is temporary and that Bitcoin will eventually realign with the broader market trends.

10:03

🤔 Assessing the Potential for Market Recovery

The speaker explores the possibility of the cryptocurrency market recovering and reconnecting with the macroeconomic data. They discuss the importance of Bitcoin's performance, as altcoins are heavily reliant on it during this market cycle. The speaker identifies key support levels, such as the 61k mark, and the significance of the weekly candle close for determining the market's trajectory. They acknowledge the challenge of recovering to these levels within the short timeframe but suggest that if Bitcoin can surpass 61k, it could signal a potential fake-out of the current downturn.

15:04

🔄 Reconnecting with the 4-Year Cycle

The speaker discusses the concept of the 4-year cycle in Bitcoin's price action and its role as a foundational trend. They note that the recent price movements have deviated from this cycle due to factors such as the ETF release. The speaker suggests that the current market downturn could provide an opportunity to reconnect with this cycle, which would offer more predictability for Bitcoin's future movements. They outline scenarios for how this could happen, including a potential consolidation period and a realignment with the cycle by late 2024.

20:05

🛑 Market Strategy and Future Outlook

In the final paragraph, the speaker outlines their personal strategy and outlook for the market. They mention having sold their altcoins but not their Bitcoin, indicating a cautious approach to the current market conditions. The speaker expresses a preference for waiting to see how Bitcoin evolves, particularly in relation to the 4-year cycle, before considering re-entering the altcoin market. They also promote their VIP group on Telegram, offering trading plans and market discussion, as well as referral bonuses for signing up to specific cryptocurrency exchanges.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates without a central bank or single administrator. It is the largest and most well-known cryptocurrency. In the video, the speaker discusses Bitcoin's recent price movements and its relationship with other market indicators, emphasizing its role as a leader in the cryptocurrency market.

💡Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency refers to digital or virtual currencies that use cryptography for security and operate independently of a central bank. The script mentions a 'big drop' in the cryptocurrency market cap, indicating a significant decrease in the total value of all cryptocurrencies.

💡Market Cap

Market capitalization, or market cap, is the total market value of a company's outstanding shares or, in the context of cryptocurrencies, the total value of all coins in circulation. The script refers to the 'total cryptocurrency market cap chart,' which helps track the overall value of the crypto market.

💡Support Line

A support line in technical analysis is a price level that an asset's price tends to find support at, meaning it is an expected floor where buying interest is likely to drive prices higher. The script mentions an 'ascending support line' that Bitcoin has dropped below, indicating a potential change in the market trend.

💡Trend

In finance, a trend refers to the general direction in which prices are moving. The video discusses various trends such as 'bull market support band' and 'P Cycle ones,' which are indicators used to predict future price movements based on historical data.

💡Macro Trends

Macro trends refer to large-scale economic patterns and movements that influence the overall market conditions. The speaker in the video suggests that despite recent price action, the macroeconomic environment remains bullish, indicating a long-term positive outlook for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

💡Four-Year Cycle

The four-year cycle, as mentioned in the script, is a pattern observed in Bitcoin's price history, where significant price movements occur approximately every four years. The speaker discusses the possibility of Bitcoin reconnecting with this cycle, which has historically provided clarity and guidance for Bitcoin's price action.

💡Altcoins

Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin. They are often seen as having more risk and potential for higher returns. The script mentions that altcoins have been hit hard during the market drop, with many experiencing significant losses, and the speaker advises caution in holding altcoins at this time.

💡VIP Group

A VIP group, as mentioned in the script, likely refers to an exclusive community or service offering additional benefits such as trading plans, group chat access, and other perks. The speaker promotes a VIP sale, indicating a limited-time offer for joining this group.

💡Exchange

In the context of cryptocurrencies, an exchange is a platform where digital currencies are bought, sold, or traded for other assets. The script discusses bonuses and discounts available for signing up to certain exchanges, emphasizing the benefits of using these platforms for trading.

💡Macroeconomic Data

Macroeconomic data refers to statistics and indicators that reflect the overall performance of an economy. The video script mentions that the current macroeconomic data is bullish, suggesting that it should theoretically be driving Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies higher, contrary to the recent price drop.

Highlights

Bitcoin experienced a significant drop to the $53,000 region, breaking below an important ascending support line.

There is a possibility to salvage the broken trends if Bitcoin rebounds above critical levels in time for the weekly candle close.

The speaker believes the trends are not completely broken yet, as they are weekly chart indicators and a monthly chart level at 61k.

Macroeconomic environment is still bullish, and the recent price action has been unusual due to its deviation from the macroeconomic data.

The presenter discusses the potential for Bitcoin to reconnect with the 4-year cycle, which has historically provided clarity and guidance.

A VIP sale in the speaker's Telegram group is being promoted, offering access to trading plans and group chat.

Referral links for Bit Tunix and Bing X exchanges are shared, offering bonuses and a lifetime 15% trading fee discount.

The S&P 500 has shown a reverse correlation with Bitcoin over the past month, deviating from the usual trend.

The presenter suggests that the deviation of Bitcoin from the broader markets and macroeconomic data is unlikely to last forever.

Total cryptocurrency market cap chart shows a five-step pattern with the current drop potentially invalidating the pattern.

The importance of Bitcoin holding certain macro support zones is emphasized, as breaking these could lead to a left-translated cycle.

The presenter discusses the possibility of Bitcoin reconnecting with the 4-year cycle if it consolidates below 74k until at least September.

Three scenarios are presented for Bitcoin's future: a continued deviation leading to a bear market, a recovery to previous trends, or a reconnection with the 4-year cycle.

The speaker does not believe in a traditional bear market occurring at this point in the cycle.

The potential benefits of reconnecting with the 4-year cycle are highlighted, including increased macro predictability.

The presenter's personal trading strategy is shared, including the decision to hold Bitcoin and Ethereum but cut altcoin positions.

A course on trading and technical analysis is promoted, offering a comprehensive learning experience in a university-style format.

Transcripts

okay ladies and gentlemen welcome back

to a Bitcoin and cryptocurrency update

it's been over a day since we saw the

big drop downwards uh to the $53,000

region on bitcoin and the big drop down

was on the total three cryptocurrency

Mark cap chart actually below its

ascending support line in Blue uh which

was quite an important support line that

that stemmed from November and we have

to do kind of a damage report here

because the price has actually seen

quite a rebound from the 53k region we

haven't gotten back above uh the

critical levels we need to get back but

we are going to discuss what those

critical levels are like what do we need

to get back above in order to get back

on track is there any chance we can

salvage uh the trends that were uh you

know broken uh from a couple days ago

yeah well there actually is believe it

or not because the trends aren't broken

yet in in a confirmed sense what I mean

by that is that all of these Trends such

as bull market support band uh such as P

Cycle ones you know the trends I've been

looking at for a long time in this

channel uh they're all weekly chart

indicators and the 61k level is actually

a monthly chart uh level stems from the

highest monthly candle close in the 2021

bull market so these levels although

we're below them hovering below them we

we've got in my opinion quite a small

chance of getting back above them

they're not technically completely gone

yet like if we did see a rapid surge

upwards here and get back above 61k in

time for the weekly candle close we

could see a salvage of some of these

macro Trends but regardless of those

macro Trends even if those macro Trends

have broken right which I think I've

discussed you know to the point of a

brain implosion over the last few days

even if those macro Trends are broken I

still don't think we're in a bare market

right I want to make something very

clear uh the macroeconomic environment

right now is undeniably bullish and the

reason why this price action has been so

strange is because it has directly

countered the macroeconomic environment

that's the reason and the other topic

I'm going to be discussing today uh is

even if these macro Trends actually do

break fully we do have a chance here on

bitcoin to reconnect to the fabric of

all cryptocurrency price action which is

the 4year cycle and that would actually

be probably my ideal scenario I actually

want that to happen um and of course I

think everyone should want that to

happen the fouryear cycl has offered us

so much Clarity and guidance uh in all

Cycles prior to this one in this one

it's been a bit sketch but if we do

remain down here and we do consolidate

for a period of time we can relink up

with that and we can again remain in a

macro bullish setting with actually a

more clear Direction on bitcoin so we'll

discuss all those possibilities today

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the content okay so let's get into it

right the reason why this drop um for

the last month really since the start of

June has been so strange is because it's

been a deviation on a a a level that

goes past cryptocurrency Market it's

been a deviation to the macroeconomic

data it's been a deviation to the every

single other Market other than the

crypto market and there's been unique

factors that have actually dragged

Bitcoin down here right so we look at

again S&P 500 it's just a very simple

way to look at it S&P 500 uh deviating

from Bitcoin massively over the course

of the last month again since when

Bitcoin was at 72k or 71k that's when

the deviation began and it's been you

know it's not unusual to see uh

uncorrelated price action between the

S&P and Bitcoin what is unusual is to

see reverse correlated price action

between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin like

usually we don't even really see

uncorrelated price action for more than

a couple of months or a couple of weeks

and now we're actually seeing reverse

correlation a very potent direct reverse

correlation for the last entire month

we'll go to a daily chart and just zoom

in and show you again for the last

entire month uh S&P 500 skyrocketing

really upwards from uh over here upwards

like 10% a large amount right and

Bitcoin down 20 25% whatever it's down a

large amount with the total three down

30 you know per altcoins many altcoins

down 50 or 60 or even 70% right so the

the cryptocurrency market in the last

month has just taken a massive left turn

while the S&P is taken a massive right

turn along with the macroeconomic data

which was meant to be leading Bitcoin

and this is the reason really I mean

this is the fundamental basis of why the

price action has been so incredibly

strange because of this deviation uh do

I with that being said I don't think

this deviation will last forever I this

deviation has been caused by probably a

multitude of things uh the German

government selling uh the the ETF

overvaluation and coming back down to a

baseline potentially another Factor will

be Mount Gau another Factor will be no

doubt manipulation there's been probably

many many and probably way more than

that that I can't even name maybe we

don't even have access to why this

deviation has occurred but regardless of

why the deviation has occurred I don't

think it's reason to be massively

bearish on bitcoin on a longterm basis

because the long-term basis is that

Bitcoin the long-term trend is that

Bitcoin follows S&P based on the macro

economic data and the macroeconomic data

is still bullish so it's just a matter

of when will Bitcoin reconnect with the

broader markets that's my question so I

never have thought ever I've never

suggested on this YouTube channel and I

don't suggest it now that Bitcoin is

going to be entering a bare Market here

what I have suggested is that Bitcoin

has broken below very major levels that

it typically has not broken below at

this time of Market cycle that's what

I've suggested uh and the same thing

with a total 3 so we look at the total 3

cryptocurrency Market capap chart and we

see the total 3 has uh you know a

five-step pattern really and a five-step

pattern showing that step four is the

final step before a parabolic bull

market with an altcoin season uh and

step four has many invalidation factors

for example an ascending blue support

line uh for example a horizontal uh line

on step three's High uh for example a

couple more things uh RSI sending

support Lin steming backwards from the

middle of step two between step three

all of these things another thing is

bull market supp boort band there's so

many factors of identification of when

you can identify uh when the the fstep

pattern has been invalidated and we

actually saw a lot of them trigger so

although we are holding on the total

three above the ascending green support

line if we go to linear uh we see we see

we've actually broken below the

ascending blue line and we've broken

below things like the bull market

support band by a massive amount I mean

since we've dropped below bull market

support band we've gone downward 17 or

18% or 19% even uh P Cycle ones a lot

the fact of the matter is a lot of these

invalidations that do suggest and we've

actually broken below macro lows as well

the macro loan we fall there a lot of

these lines which do suggest uh you know

the the where we're meant to be

bottoming on this trend have broken and

so this is what I'm talking about in

yesterday in my videos before yesterday

about how crucial it is that we bottomed

where we were because we needed to hold

those Trends hold those lines so that

the macro Trend could remain UNH Haled

and unhindered and we can continue into

a parabolic bull market with allcoin

season now the unfortunate reality is we

have done pretty significant damage to

those macro Trends right we've met a you

know three out of the five invalidation

zones for the total 3's macro Trend

there's no you know there's no real

saying whether we're going to recover

from that we don't really know uh what I

can say is that if we do and this is

where we get into the chance for

Recovery if we do close the weekly

candle above that blue ascending support

line there is a chance a chance uh that

we could label this a fake out but it

would be again it would be guessing it

would be a guessing game what we really

need to be seeing is Bitcoin doing well

I think the the total 3 is riing on

bitcoin altcoins are relied on Bitcoin

in this time of the market cycle you

know even historically if we're looking

at this macro Trend step four is what

occurs before the altcoin season so step

four which we're in now either in now or

broken below is still happening or

occurring in a Bitcoin dominated Market

in environment meaning that Bitcoin is

leading the market so what am I looking

at right now I'm looking at Bitcoin

mainly uh and when I look at Bitcoin

what I see is that we've broken below a

very major macro support Zone at 61k uh

and that is a monthly chart level but

there's also many dynamic levels within

that price region such as again bull

market support band and various other

things and I see a chance for Bitcoin

here uh we've got a weekly candle close

in in 1 day and 13 hours and we really

need to get back above the the 61k level

in the next 1 day or 13 hours now does

that seem likely it seems like a stretch

I I'll be completely honest with you I I

it seems like a stretch uh you know 61k

is still quite far away from where we

are it's still 10% move but if Bitcoin

does manage to get back above 61k in 1

day and 13 hours that we can label this

a fake out uh and and that's that but I

mean look if we're looking at the more

reasonable scenario uh the more

reasonable scenario is that we don't get

that Weekly can close Okay the more

reasonable scenarios we hover around

here we don't get that Weekly candle

close above 61k uh and we just kind of

continue doing what we're doing until

eventually we reconnect to the

macroeconomic data uh and we establish

new trends or potentially even uh go

back and and lurk around for a while and

actually reconnect with the fouryear

cycle so this is something I talked

about briefly yesterday as well but I

think will be interesting to monitor now

the 4-year cycle uh is the strongest

ever uh Trend that Bitcoin has it's

actually the fabric the very fabric of

the entirety of bitcoin's maccro price

action uh stepping back from the the the

first half in 2012 uh and we were

following the 4year cycle to the

absolute T until the ETF release at the

ETF release we moved upwards too fast

too quickly uh we broke all-time highs

before the hiving something we've never

done before we were moving about 250

days ahead of schedule now luckily or

potentially something that's promising

is that you know with the recent price

action last three months we have kind of

you know taken a massive break from

moving upwards we've gone sideways and

and even downwards now uh for for over

100 days 130 140 days okay so we're

taking a break here a break of fresh air

after the massive move to the upside

triggered by the ETF narrative and the

ETF reality and there is a chance here

that we kind of get back on track of

fouryear cycle because again we were

moving way too fast and there we were

starting to discuss RAR a left

translated cycle we were starting to

discuss because of the macro Trends I

discussed earlier in this video such as

the fstep pattern on the total three uh

and such as the macro support Zone on

bitcoin that I saw as needing to hold uh

because it it had never really broken

before in any other Market environment

um you know now that we've broken those

levels we can look to the more

foundational trends that we could be

reconnecting to such as the 4year cycle

which doesn't necessarily rely on those

macro levels that we've just broken uh

over the last couple days I hope that

makes sense uh but what we need to do to

get back on top of the for to get back

into the 4year cycle is we need we need

to actually take a break we need to

actually go sideways more we need to lur

more we can't continue just steam

rolling to the upside like we did pre

ETFs uh if we're looking at fouryear

cycle from a traditional perspective

from a traditional perspective in

fouryear cycle um we have basically a

1,100 day range between the all-time

high and breaking above that all-time

high again 1,100 days okay give or take

50 days okay it happened in the first

cycle happened in the second cycle over

here again 1,100 days give will take 50

days if we are going to see that again

and we measure from a 2021 high and we

assume that this was a deviation which

would be the Assumption we would make in

this scenario 1,100 days from that

deviation would take us to around uh

December November October maybe even

late September somewhere in Q4 basically

this year so what I'm looking at uh for

Bitcoin to potentially reconnect to the

4year cycle uh would be Bitcoin to kind

of not really do much uh or not break

the macro highs not break 73k until

around at least September this year so

if we can see consolidation below 74k

for 2 months uh i' I'd be very happy

because that would in in my view would

be evidence that we're potentially

reconnecting to the 4year cycle and

reconnecting to much more supported and

much more established macro trends like

the 4year cycle rather than the ones we

were relying on for the last couple of

months which did eventually lead us into

the possibility of a left translated

cycle right which have now broken now

again there's two scenarios here right

there's actually three scenarios the the

one of the scenarios the third scenario

is we just go downwards and everything's

wrecked okay the other scenario is

Bitcoin manages to close the weekly

candle above the levels required above

61k and everything gets salvaged and

this get this gets labels as a deviation

and we still think there's going to be a

left translated cycle and the third

scenario is Bitcoin fails to close the

weekly candle above 61k Bitcoin lurks

around for a couple months and Bitcoin

breaches 74k at the earliest in

September in which case there will be a

growing pull of evidence to suggest

we're back on track with the 4year cycle

uh so there's a lot of different

scenarios here uh in my opinion I I

don't see the this this kind of bare

case uh that a lot of people are seeing

right now I don't see this Mac you know

I I even if we saw a bare Market here it

wouldn't be a traditional bare Market um

because I may have mentioned at the

start of the video I don't remember if I

did actually a traditional bare Market

is is is not valid unless we see it from

the traditional spot and the traditional

spot that we see a bare Market from only

occurs at the end of the fouryear cycle

we're not there yet so if we see a bare

Market here it won't be a traditional

one it could just last a couple months

right we don't know what it would look

like it could take us down only 30%

instead of the usual 80% so we just

don't know what a bare Market would look

like here for that reason I can

certainly say that we won't be seeing a

traditional bare Market um and I can say

also to a pretty high degree of

confidence that I don't think we'll see

extended bearish price price action

really uh because again I believe we

will eventually reattach to the

macroeconomic data which is driving the

broader markets up and I believe crypto

will stop seeing these isolated

narratives that is dragging crypto down

while letting the rest of the markets

rise eventually Bitcoin and

cryptocurrency will come back into

contact with the traditional narratives

that that lead it to the upside uh just

like it's doing with the S&P right now

so I mean there's a couple of things

that could happen here I I'm I don't see

the fouryear cycle as completely off the

table I've never seen it as completely

off a table um I I did see it as a a

narrative that wasn't important for a

long period of time because uh if we

were going to maintain the macro trends

that uh are are potentially breaking now

or broke a couple of days ago we

wouldn't really need the for before your

cycle would actually do more damage than

H more damage than good for us following

it right because we would be more likely

to have a left translated cycle if we

were to maintain all those macro levels

and continue at an upwards Pace at that

trajectory it just wouldn't make sense

to continue until October next year but

now that we've come down below them

again the fouryear cycle is very much

back on the table in a very real fashion

here so we'll have to kind of see I

can't really say anything too decisive

about it yet but what I can say is that

I'm watching the fouryear cycle very

closely and actually as a matter of fact

uh if we do connect reconnect to the

four-year cycle here I will see that as

an excellent thing because again we want

the maximum amount of macro

predictability and macro predictability

stems fundamentally on bitcoin and

cryptocurrency from the 4year cycle

right I think ever since ETFs came into

this Market the market has been slightly

corrupted right we were forced into a

situation where we had to trust Dynamic

indicators rather than the fabric of

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency price action

itself which is the fouryear cycle and

now that those Dynamic indicators have

broken or are breaking depending on what

happens with the weekly candle close we

do have the opportunity to reconnect

with again the fabric of bitcoin's price

action so it'll be very interesting to

see what happens here when will I be

buying back uh if you know because

obviously I've sold my altcoins I've cut

my cut my wins on altcoins and and you

know some of some cases I've cut my

losses but in a lot of cases I've

actually cut my wins because we bought

allcoins back in November December

October uh but obviously recent ones we

bought they they're mostly losses uh I

again I haven't sold my Bitcoin uh

ethereum I haven't sold too much of it

but again uh I didn't really have too

much ethereum to be honest with you uh I

was mostly about 55% in Bitcoin a little

bit in ethereum and the rest was in

altcoins all my altcoins are cut I don't

believe it is safe to Old altcoins here

even though I'm not MC bearish I still

don't think it's safe to hold altcoins I

think there is a massive degree of

uncertainty in the altcoin Market at

this point uh again if we manage to

recover the weekly candle close perhaps

I'll buy back the total three if we

don't manage to cover recover the weekly

candle close I will only be buying

altcoins again once I'm confident that

Bitcoin is actually in a decent position

for example once I'm confident that

Bitcoin reconnects to the fouryear cycle

I'll consider buying altcoins again um

as of right now I'm not interested in

altcoins I'm really just patiently

waiting observing what's going on with

Bitcoin uh CU I believe that bit Bitcoin

is still the leader of the markets we

are in a Bitcoin season still uh and

Bitcoin will ultimately determine what

happens to the rest of the market now so

I hope you guys found that video useful

and insightful uh it was pretty in-depth

and pretty nuanced at times and you

might be confused about a few things and

I hopefully I hopefully I can shed some

light on the things you you are confused

from in the next couple of days leave a

comment if you didn't understand

anything and I'll I'll definitely try to

address the popular comments uh in

tomorrow's video uh I'm trying not to

respond to too many comments in the

comment section CU there's quite frankly

just too many of them uh so apologies if

I don't get to your questions in the

comment section but leave a comment and

I if I see it as useful information or

something that I need to answer I will

address it in following videoos so guys

thank you so much for watching I hope

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thank for watching I hope you enjoyed

I'll catch you tomorrow