Americans FLEE Cities For Small Town USA
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses a significant shift in domestic migration trends in the United States, as highlighted by a study from the University of Virginia's domestic demographics research group. The US Census data reveals a record number of Americans are leaving big cities for smaller ones, particularly those with populations under 250,000. This 'small town boom' is largely attributed to the rise of remote work. The trend, which began pre-pandemic, has been accelerated by the normalization of remote and hybrid work models. The shift has led to a net increase in migration to rural counties and a decrease in larger urban areas. The implications of this demographic change are far-reaching, affecting commercial real estate, local economies, and potentially altering political landscapes. The speaker suggests that this dispersion could be beneficial for cultural diversity and reducing political polarization, as people are exposed to a broader mix of perspectives. The discussion also touches on the potential political ramifications, including the impact on congressional districting and the changing dynamics in states like Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Takeaways
- đïž Record numbers of Americans are leaving big cities for smaller towns and rural areas, largely due to the rise of remote work opportunities.
- đ The trend of domestic migration towards areas with populations under 250,000 has surpassed all other locations, indicating a significant shift.
- đ From 2000 to 2020, rural counties experienced a net loss in population, but from 2019 to 2020, there was a spike in net migration to these areas.
- đŸ Factors contributing to this shift include trade policies like NAFTA, the decline of the American Farm, and the 2008 financial crisis.
- đš The pandemic has significantly accelerated this trend, suggesting a persistent change in American migration and living choices.
- đŒ The rise of remote work and hybrid work models has fueled this migration trend, allowing people to live further from urban job centers.
- đ Small towns are experiencing economic growth, with examples like a previously small town in Virginia now having the highest wage growth and new amenities like Starbucks.
- đ Large urban centers may face challenges due to population decline, which can lead to business vacancies and a downward spiral for local economies.
- đ Political implications could arise from this demographic shift, potentially affecting the balance of voters and congressional districts.
- đ This migration could lead to more diverse communities and cultural mixing, which can be beneficial for social cohesion and understanding.
- đ The book 'Coming Apart' by Charles Murray is mentioned as a resource for understanding these societal shifts, despite some controversy surrounding the author.
Q & A
What is the main trend highlighted by the US Census data?
-The US Census data shows a record wave of Americans moving from big cities to small and remote towns, driven largely by the rise of remote work.
What impact has the shift to remote work had on domestic migration patterns?
-The shift to remote work has led to a 'small town boom,' with migration to areas under 250,000 people surpassing all other locations.
What are some of the historical factors that have contributed to population decline in rural areas?
-Factors such as NAFTA, the consolidation and decline of the American Farm, and the 2008 financial crisis have contributed to significant net loss in rural areas.
How has the net migration to rural counties changed recently?
-There has been a massive spike in net migration to rural counties since 2019 and 2020, with over 100,000 people, and this trend has persisted above the overall trend line.
What is the current trend for domestic migration in US counties with over 1 million residents?
-US counties with over 1 million residents have been experiencing a significant drop in annual domestic migration, with over a million people leaving from 2020 to 2021.
How has the pandemic influenced these migration trends?
-The pandemic has significantly shaken up people's lives and work conditions, accelerating the trend of moving to more rural areas.
What is the potential impact of these migration trends on urban centers?
-Urban centers may struggle to maintain their vitality due to population decline, leading to vacancies, a spiral effect on local businesses, and a potential decline in economic activity.
What political implications could these migration trends have?
-The migration trends could lead to a more dispersed voter base, potentially affecting the balance of political power and the outcomes of congressional district splits.
Why is the speaker optimistic about the reversal of mass consolidation in the US?
-The speaker believes that a more diverse and mixed population, including those with different political views, can lead to better cultural mixing and reduce polarization.
How has the rise of remote work affected the appeal of smaller towns and rural areas?
-The normalization of remote work has made smaller towns and rural areas more attractive to people who can now live anywhere while maintaining their urban jobs.
What are some examples of small towns that have experienced significant growth or change due to migration?
-The town previously known as the 'sweatshirt capital of Virginia' has seen the highest wage growth in the state and is getting its own Starbucks, indicating a significant shift.
What broader societal changes does the speaker hope will result from this migration trend?
-The speaker hopes that the trend will lead to more cultural sorting, reducing the ease of demonization of those with different views, and promoting a healthier social and political climate.
Outlines
đ Domestic Migration Trends and Remote Work Impact
This paragraph discusses a recent study highlighting a significant shift in domestic migration within the United States. The US Census data reveals a record number of Americans are leaving large cities for smaller ones, particularly those with populations under 250,000. This 'small town boom' is largely attributed to the rise of remote work. The speaker references a University of Virginia research group's findings, which show a net loss in rural county migration from 2000 to 2020, with a significant spike in 2019 and 2020. The trend is seen as a reversal from previous years, with a notable drop in migration to large cities. The discussion also touches on the potential long-term effects on urban centers and the political implications of these demographic shifts.
đïž Urban Decline and the Challenge for Large Cities
The speaker addresses the challenges that large urban centers may face due to population decline. With fewer people, there is an increased likelihood of vacancies, which can negatively impact local businesses and lead to a downward spiral. Historically, America has seen similar cycles, such as the 'white flight' from cities following the civil rights movement. The speaker suggests that the current trend could have political ramifications, particularly for the Democratic party, which has a high concentration of voters in cities. The potential for a more dispersed voter base could lead to changes in political dynamics. The paragraph concludes with a discussion on the importance of cultural mixing and exposure to diverse viewpoints for societal health.
đ€ Cultural Sorting and the Need for Interaction
The final paragraph emphasizes the potential benefits of reversing cultural sorting, where like-minded individuals cluster in the same areas. The speaker argues that having a mix of people with different races, socioeconomic backgrounds, and political views interacting with each other can counteract the ease of demonizing those who are perceived as different. The paragraph discusses the role of the media in exacerbating divisions and the importance of personal interaction in breaking down stereotypes. The speaker also mentions the book 'Coming Apart' by Charles Murray and its influence on Joe Biden, suggesting that the current migration trends could be a hopeful sign for the country's cultural and political future.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄDomestic Migration
đĄRemote Work
đĄSmall Town Boom
đĄRural Counties
đĄNAFTA
đĄPandemic
đĄHybrid Work Models
đĄCommercial Real Estate Bust
đĄCultural Detriment
đĄPolitical Implications
đĄCultural Sorting
đĄReal Estate Boom
Highlights
Record wave of Americans fled big cities for small towns and remote areas under 250,000 people
Small town boom driven by remote work
University of Virginia's domestic demographics research group conducted the study
Net loss of domestic migration in rural counties from 2000 to 2020
NAFTA and decline of American farming contributed to migration trends
2008 financial crisis accelerated population decline in rural areas
Massive spike in net migration to rural counties in 2019-2020
Annual domestic migration in counties with over 1 million residents has been declining
Over 1 million people left large cities from 2020 to 2021
Pandemic shook up people's lives and migration patterns
Remote work fueled and accelerated the trend of moving to rural areas
Persistent change in American migration and living choices
Rise of superstar mega-cities like NYC, SF, LA contrasted with decline in rural areas
Young people leaving rural areas, no one to replace them
Trade policy led to loss of industry in many rural towns
Rural America's future looked extremely dire with population, tax revenue loss
Reversal with cities now struggling with population decline
Vacancies and decline in local businesses can be hard to reverse
Potential political implications of changing demographics
Demographic shifts could change the politics of formerly solid Republican states
Cultural mixing and exposure to different people is good for society
Potential for more cultural sorting and less polarization if demographic trends continue
Positive for small towns and rural areas to have life, growth and investment
Transcripts
all right let's turn to the next one
here I wanted to get something in the
show that was interesting and uh you
know this is some fascinating data
Crystal that you highlighted on top of a
new study that's come out we love to
track domestic migration here let's go
and put this up there on the screen so
latest data that's come out from the US
Census shows that record wave of
Americans fled big cities not for other
big cities but for small ones remote
work in particular has led to a quote
small town boom and Mig to areas under
250,000 people has topped all locations
that's actually crazy because we're
talking about midsize and smaller tier
cities so they highlight a few of them
um in the report but really if you look
at the overall trend line it's
absolutely fascinating so let's go and
put this up there on the screen um I
encourage everybody to go read this by
the way it's from the University of
Virginia's domestic uh demographics
research group and they've done a really
good job here what you see in front of
you is US rural County annual domestic
migration and basically from what you
can see is that from 2000 to basically
what is that 2020 it is net it is net
loss and in some cases significant net
loss a lot of this has to do with NAFTA
with uh you know the consolidation the
decline of the American Farm you can
also see also how 2008 definitely
accelerated a lot of those Trends as
well because a lot of those people went
bankrupt and they were forced to leave
their property but then all of a sudden
2019 in 2020 massive Spike of net
migration increased net migration to
rural counties over 100,000 people and
the fascinating part is it's only it's
stayed up it's I mean it's dropped a
little bit but it's way way above the
overall trend line if we go to the next
part here you can actually see too how
this is a complete reverse if we go to
the next slide please guys which is
annual domestic migration with over 1
million residents you see the same thing
where annual domestic migration in US
counties with over 1 million they've
been losing you know for a little while
but you know relatively going down some
people were moving with they're moving
to Big Earth cities or 250,000 to 1
million but here same thing you just see
a massive drop of over a million people
there from 2020 to 2021 and it continues
in the 800,000 so no real uh sign that
things are changing and in fact I think
what the pandemic did is it just shook
things up significantly for a lot of
people and that shakeup has changed in
combination with work conditions where
they're willing to move to more rural
areas they highlight um one town in here
Crystal uh that you may be able to speak
to which previously was it's like this
Tiny Town previously known as the what
the sweatshirt capital of Virginia and
now they're they have the highest wage
growth in the state and they're getting
their own Starbucks which is crazy
apparently for them so by the way I
wouldn't want Starbucks right um we got
our Starbucks in King George County few
years back and it was very it was a big
deal it's still a big deal that it's
there that's where all the ladies meet
right yeah I mean this is a so looking
at the trends there was this trend
actually began before Co but like many
other things Co accelerated it and so
since you had the um uptake and the
normalization of remote work or at least
like hybrid work models that really
fueled and accelerated this trend and
one of the questions was okay well was
this just like a CO era thing or or is
this a persistent change in American
migration and you know living choices
and what's really noteworthy now is that
it clearly is a persistent change so in
the early part of my you know
professional life it was very much the
the total opposite of this so we had
these rise of these Superstar mega
cities the DC New York San Francisco LA
Etc and they're just you know sucking up
all the population in rural counties uh
in particular were really struggling
because young people just they would
grow up there and they would leave and
no one was coming in to replace them
with trade policy that you know sucked
the industry out of many of these towns
it just it looked really dire for almost
all of Rural America it looked extremely
dire in terms of what the future was you
go to these towns and you can see what
they used to be and you can see how
they're struggling to just you know
maintain the roads and fill the potholes
and keep the school together Etc because
of the loss of population loss of tax
revenue so now we're seeing a total
reversal of that Dynamic where you now
have it's the cities that are going to
struggle with this problem we've talked
about this ties in with the commercial
real estate bust which still looms as a
major economic issue um overhang
actually I just saw this uh holiday in
that's like a block from where we are
right now that just sold for less than
the debt that's owed on yes I mean there
yeah it's crazy if anyone wants a good
deal on a day in I guess there's one
just around the corner here that was for
sale but um in any case these large
Urban centers are going to have a a
major Challenge on their hands to keep
their Vitality because when you have
population decline then you have you
know you have vacancies then it's a
spiral effect in terms of the local
businesses the small businesses the
lunch places the hotels Etc and it can
be very difficult to reverse that
decline now I mean we've had previous
Cycles like this in America um you know
after like the 1968 and the race rights
Etc you had this white flight out of
cities that pretended a real era of
decline in a lot of large mega cities in
America as well and then that you know
that changed around so it's not like
this is permanent and it's the end of
everything but it is really significant
it could also have some political
implications too because one of the
challenges for Democrats in terms of the
House of Representatives is that their
voters tended to be super concentrated
ated in these cities in a way that was
not advantageous for them in terms of
the congressional district split so if
you have Democrats sort of like spread
out a bit more across the Suburban
landscape the small City landscape the
rural landscape it could ultimately lead
to some political implications here as
well but I guess Sager my big takeaway
is those cities may be thankful for
these Republican Governors busting
migrants in they may need that that uh
new blood they may need that increase in
population thankful for it well they
won't be thankful for because they're
going to be on the Dole for the rest of
the time that they're there but people
not for now give them work permits and
they'll be good to go maybe we'll see um
but my point would just be if I would be
very worried like you said if I were
Republicans because you've now become so
attractive that a lot of people who
don't agree with you really at all are
now moving into your state to take
advantage they may agree with you
necessarily on like on tax policy or
whatever but not on abortion we're
already watching this play out in the
state of to now I'm not saying that
these states are going to go Blue what I
am saying is that the changes in their
Coalition is significantly different and
will change what the future politics of
the state look like especially as these
people amass wealth and power and
especially because a lot of these people
have money and you're already watching
it happen right now in Austin I mean
Austin politics has changed dramatically
just in my lifetime from the Texas that
I grew up in I'm hearing the same thing
out of Houston and out of Dallas the
spread that is happening also I mean
Texas is the biggest booming state in
the country tiny little counties which
previously you know you just drive
through are some of the fastest growing
areas in the United States I'm watching
the same thing happen in States like
Arizona where Phoenix you know is one of
the biggest boom towns in the US well
that's no coincidence that Maricopa
County went blue for Biden for the very
first time it's only more likely
especially with things like abortion to
be on the ballot I wouldn't sleep on
Idaho either from what I understand and
everything I've read Boise is a similar
boom didn't think I'd ever say that in
my life boom toown Boise Idaho for real
estate prices and from a lot of
Californians I think the same is true I
believe of the state of North Carolina
Charlotte um there's significant real
estate boom that's happening there I
think Charleston South Carolina seeing
similar things and of course Atlanta
Georgia and the changing demographic so
the politics of all of this can change
significantly both at the Electoral
College level and in terms of just
jering mandering in the way that we
think we think about this but overall
this is a very net positive in my
opinion I think Mass consolidation was a
real cultural detriment to the US
because basically you got to places
where you know and even I current I've
moved away from Washington DC moving
from a place which is 98% blue to 70%
blue is actually different and just in
terms of the people you're around and
then I can't even imagine what it would
be like to live from like 90% blue to
like 5050 I know you live somewhere in a
different area but I'm sure you see that
as well for cultural mixing and just the
type of people you're exposed to it's
good it's important to be around people
who you don't necessarily
agree with or we just very different
from you at all times yeah uh where I
live is uh I think it's about 6040 went
for Trump 6040 um so it's definitely
more it's definitely a conservative area
is where I grew up so it's very you know
it's what I'm used to very comfortable
there um I agree with you that it could
be a very help hopeful story because
there was this previous Dynamic um there
was a book written by Bill b Bishop the
big sword oh yeah yeah that um really
dug into how like-minded people were
clustering in the same places and so you
could go through your life and not have
to you know be at a school board or PTA
meeting with people who had different
views for you or going to get your
coffee at Starbucks with people who are
different like you could live in a total
and complete bubble and guess what human
beings being the tribal creatures that
they are when you're in that bubble and
you don't have to be exposed to people
with different views you can very easily
demonize them you can think of them as
monsters you can think of them as
enemies versus just like you know
complex human beings who happen to have
come to a different place and different
conclusions or had a different cultural
upbringing than you did so if this leads
to more cultural sorting we have all
this discourse about oh we're on the
brink of Civil War and we're going to
tear each other apart and part of that
true polarization and sense that I think
is real of the country being divided in
these you know very Stark ways is the
fact that we have had so much cultural
sorting into these various Bubbles and
so if this reverses that a little bit I
think it will be good I think it will be
healthy for the country I think it is
much better when you have a mix of
people of different you know races
socioeconomic backgrounds political
views who all have to interact with each
other because it really is an antidote
to the easy demonization of people who
are quote unquote different in whatever
way and in in a way that you know Matt
taibe really tracked this quite well in
his Hating Book in a way that has been
that division is very profitable for
cable news industry who can just pick
out one random person and you know use
them to say this is what everybody
disagrees with you has these terrible
views and they're these terrible people
or they're evil they're the biggest
threat to the country Etc that becomes
very powerful if you don't know those
people personally you have no experience
with what they're actually all about and
what they're actually like I mean it's
part of the core Foundation of this show
and why we do what we do so maybe
possibly it could be a very hopeful
Trend and I being a you know a pro small
town rural person I like to see that
there is life being injected back into
these communities I think there's
something you know precious and special
there that's worth rest it's good for
America America's built on that uh
coming apart by Charles Murray same book
same same thing I highly that one's a
little more controversial huh no Charles
Murray's controversial for separate
things that he wrote not for coming
apart coming apart is one of Joe Biden's
favorite books did you know that that's
why I was you should I me it doesn't
show in some of his politics but I mean
I guess we can take it so I recommend
the book don't read the R and IQ stuff
if you don't want to which is in
separate books but separate conversation
uh we got a great guest standing by uh
the UN special rapit tour Franchesca
albanes let's get to it hey guys if you
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