Pengukuran Risiko

Summary

This video explores the key concepts of risk measurement in business, highlighting techniques for assessing and managing risks that impact a company's performance. The script covers two main dimensions of risk: frequency and severity, and outlines several methods for measuring risk, including probability-based, exposure, sensitivity analysis, volatility, and Value at Risk (VaR). The importance of understanding both direct and indirect losses is emphasized, with practical examples demonstrating how these tools help managers prioritize risks and make informed decisions to protect financial stability. The video also introduces a simple risk matrix for easier classification of risks.

Takeaways

• 😀 Risk measurement helps assess the size and potential impact of risks faced by a company.
• 😀 Two primary dimensions are used for risk measurement: frequency of losses and severity of those losses.
• 😀 Risk measurement allows companies to determine the relative importance of different risks and prioritize them.
• 😀 Understanding the financial impact of risks is critical for risk managers when selecting the most acceptable risk mitigation strategies.
• 😀 Risk exposure can be assessed using different techniques depending on the nature of the risk being evaluated.
• 😀 One technique, AD1102, offers a qualitative measure of the likelihood of an event occurring, with probabilities ranging from 0 to 1.
• 😀 National risk measurement evaluates risk based on the value of exposure, like the risk of credit by the value of a loan.
• 😀 Sensitivity risk measurement evaluates how sensitive an exposure is to changes in certain factors, such as market returns.
• 😀 Volatility risk measurement uses standard deviation to measure the fluctuation of asset values, indicating higher risk with larger deviations.
• 😀 The Bellwethers approach calculates the maximum possible loss of an asset or investment with a specified confidence level, typically using a 95% confidence level.
• 😀 The frequency and significance matrix technique categorizes risks based on their occurrence rate and potential impact, helping to prioritize risks without complex calculations.

Q & A

What is the main purpose of risk measurement?

The main purpose of risk measurement is to evaluate the size and impact of potential risks a company may face, helping to understand the likelihood of losses and their consequences, particularly on the company’s financial condition.

What are the two dimensions used for measuring risk?

The two dimensions for measuring risk are the frequency of losses (how often a loss occurs over a specified period) and the severity or impact of the losses (the financial or operational consequences of those losses).

Why is it important for risk managers to focus on severity rather than frequency?

Risk managers often focus more on severity because the impact of a significant loss can be more detrimental to the company's financial health than the frequency of smaller, less severe losses.

How does risk measurement help managers in decision-making?

Risk measurement helps managers prioritize which risks to address first by understanding their relative importance and potential impact. It also aids in determining the most effective and acceptable risk mitigation strategies.

What is the role of the 'exposure' in risk measurement?

Exposure refers to the extent to which a company is vulnerable to a specific risk. Measuring exposure helps assess the potential financial impact of risks like credit risk or market fluctuations.

What is sensitivity analysis in risk measurement?

Sensitivity analysis measures how sensitive an asset or business exposure is to changes in certain factors, such as market conditions, interest rates, or sales. It helps evaluate the potential for risk based on variations in these factors.

How is volatility risk measured?

Volatility risk is measured by analyzing the fluctuations in the value of an asset or exposure, commonly using standard deviation. A higher standard deviation indicates greater volatility and, therefore, higher risk.

What is Value at Risk (VaR) and how is it used in risk measurement?

Value at Risk (VaR) is a statistical technique used to measure the maximum potential loss an asset or investment can face over a specific period at a given confidence level, such as 95% or 99%. It helps quantify the level of risk associated with an asset.

How does the confidence level affect the calculation of risk in VaR?

The confidence level, such as 95% or 99%, indicates the probability that the actual loss will not exceed the estimated risk. A higher confidence level reduces the likelihood of a greater-than-expected loss but may also result in a more conservative estimate of risk.

What is the Frequency and Significance Matrix in risk measurement?

The Frequency and Significance Matrix is a simple method for classifying risks based on their frequency and impact. Risks are grouped into categories, allowing managers to identify which risks are most important to address without requiring complex quantitative analysis.