"RBI Intrest Rate Decision today" Pre-Market Report - Nifty & Bank Nifty 09 Oct 2024 Range, Analysis

Summary

This pre-market report video covers key events influencing the Indian and global stock markets for October 9, 2024. It highlights a technical bounce in the Indian market, driven by BJP's election win in Haryana and positive momentum in Chinese markets. U.S. markets saw gains from strong Nvidia, Pepsi, and Honeywell performances. A potential ceasefire in the Middle East and RBI's monetary policy meeting are expected to impact markets, with a possible interest rate cut influencing banking stocks. The video also discusses Nifty and Bank Nifty trends, along with important support and resistance levels.

Takeaways

• 📈 The Indian stock market saw a technical bounce, recovering 200 points after a steep drop of 1,400 points.
• 🎉 The BJP's surprising election win in Haryana positively impacted 12 out of 13 sectors, with metals being the only sector to close negative.
• 🌏 The Chinese market opened strong after a week-long holiday, gaining around 5%, but concerns about a smaller or delayed stimulus package due to Trump's possible election win affected metal prices.
• 💰 For the seventh consecutive session, FIIs were net sellers in the cash market, offloading ₹5,730 crore, while DIIs bought ₹700 crore.
• 💡 US markets were driven by strong earnings from Pepsi and Honeywell, and Foxconn's demand for Nvidia chips pushed Nvidia's stock up by 4%.
• 🕊️ A ceasefire statement from Hezbollah led to a further positive movement in the US market and caused oil prices to drop by over 4%.
• 💵 Brent crude was trading near $79 per barrel, while WTI crude closed near $74 per barrel due to the market's reaction to the ceasefire statement.
• 📊 Gift Nifty indicated a gap-up opening of 30 to 50 points, with a premium drop bringing it to a sensible level of 120 points.
• 🏦 The RBI's monetary policy meeting at 10 a.m. is expected to drive the market today, with economists predicting either a continued interest rate hold or a small cut of 10-25 basis points.
• 🔍 On the technical front, Nifty broke its lower low formation and formed a bullish harami pattern, signaling a potential end to the bearish trend, although further confirmation is needed.

Q & A

What was the main reason for the technical bounce in the Indian market on October 9, 2024?

The main reason for the technical bounce was the BJP's surprising election win in Haryana, which boosted the market.

Which sector was the only one to close negative on October 8, 2024?

The metal sector was the only one to close negative on October 8, 2024.

How did the Chinese market's reopening after a one-week holiday affect the global market?

The Chinese market opened and closed positive by around 5%, but concerns arose regarding the potential reduction or delay of a stimulus package due to the possibility of Trump winning the U.S. election. This negatively impacted metal share prices.

How did institutional investors perform in the Indian cash market on October 8, 2024?

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were net sellers for the seventh consecutive session, selling ₹5,730 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought near ₹700 crore.

What factors contributed to the U.S. market closing positive on October 8, 2024?

The U.S. market was positively impacted by strong demand for Foxconn's services using Nvidia's upcoming chip, positive earnings reports from Pepsi and Honeywell, and Hezbollah's announcement of being open to a ceasefire, which also led to a crash in oil prices.

How did oil prices react to the ceasefire announcement by Hezbollah?

The ceasefire announcement led to a drop in oil prices by over 4%, with WTI crude closing near $74 per barrel and Brent crude trading near $79 per barrel.

What was the market expectation for the RBI's monetary policy decision on October 9, 2024?

Most economists (80%) expected the RBI to keep the interest rate unchanged for the 10th consecutive time, but 20% of economists anticipated a rate cut of 10 to 25 basis points due to recent inflation trends below 4%.

How could an interest rate cut by the RBI potentially affect Indian banks?

While an interest rate cut could benefit banks by increasing their margins, it might not favor deposit growth, which is the current focus for banks. Therefore, it is uncertain how the market would react to such a cut.

What technical patterns were formed by the Nifty and Bank Nifty indices on October 8, 2024?

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty formed a bullish harami pattern, signaling a potential shift from sellers to buyers and an indication of a possible end to the bearish trend.

What key levels should be watched for the Nifty and Bank Nifty indices moving forward?

For Nifty, the key support zone is between 24,650 and 24,850, with resistance at 25,350 to 25,400. For Bank Nifty, support lies at 50,250 to 50,500, with resistance at 51,500 to 51,750.