Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear sites? Hear what expert thinks
Summary
TLDRThe video transcript discusses the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, focusing on potential Iranian nuclear threats and Israeli military responses. Israeli officials are concerned about Iran's nuclear capabilities, though it's believed Iran is still 1-2 years away from developing a nuclear weapon. Israel may take this opportunity to target Iran's nuclear program, especially with Hezbollah's forces weakened. The U.S. and Israel appear to be aligned in their response, with U.S. military assets pre-positioned to support Israel, as Iranian missile attacks and ground operations in Lebanon continue to unfold.
Takeaways
- 🔴 Israel views Iran's nuclear program as a major threat, but Israeli intelligence estimates Iran is still 1-2 years away from having a nuclear missile.
- 🛡️ The Israeli security cabinet is meeting in an underground bunker to discuss potential responses to a recent Iranian attack.
- 💣 There are expectations of a strong Israeli military retaliation, more severe than previous responses.
- 📅 Over the years, Israel has considered preemptively striking Iran's nuclear facilities, and the current situation may provide justification for such an action.
- 🔄 The current Israeli Defense Force leadership appears more willing to consider a strike on Iran than previous leadership.
- 🇺🇸 Despite some past tensions, the U.S. and Israel are aligned in their approach to the recent escalation and have been coordinating closely.
- 🛑 The Biden administration has been working behind the scenes to prevent escalation and has been closely monitoring the situation with Iran.
- ⚔️ The U.S. has pre-positioned military assets, including fighter jets and warships, in the region to deter further Iranian aggression and support Israel if necessary.
- 🚨 Israel has launched ground operations in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, significantly weakening their capabilities.
- ✈️ Fighter jets continue to operate in northern Israel, targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon as tensions remain high in the region.
Q & A
What is the main concern expressed by the speaker regarding Iran?
-The main concern is the potential for Iran to develop a nuclear bomb and the possibility of an Iranian attack on Israel. Although Iran has not yet developed a nuclear weapon, Israeli intelligence suggests they could have a deployable device within 1 to 2 years.
What is the current status of Iran’s nuclear capability according to Israeli intelligence?
-According to Israeli intelligence, Iran is still approximately 1 to 2 years away from building a nuclear device that can be placed on a missile and launched.
How is Israel likely to respond to the recent Iranian attack?
-Israel is expected to respond very severely to the Iranian attack, with a much stronger reaction than previous responses, which involved limited actions such as targeting a single anti-aircraft battery.
Why might this be an opportune moment for Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear program?
-There is a sense that the current situation, including weakened Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, might provide Israel with an opportunity to launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
How has the U.S. responded to the Israeli actions in recent weeks?
-Despite initial concerns over a lack of consultation, the U.S. has supported Israel’s actions, including its recent ground operations in southern Lebanon. There seems to be no major disagreement between the U.S. and Israel regarding their actions in the region.
What assets has the U.S. pre-positioned in the region to support Israel?
-The U.S. has pre-positioned assets including a destroyer in the eastern Mediterranean, a carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea, and fighter jets to assist Israel and deter further escalation.
What role did the Israeli military base in southern Israel play in recent events?
-The base in southern Israel, which was targeted by Iran, is a significant facility for the Israeli Air Force. It was involved in a recent mission targeting the Houthis in Yemen, sending a message to Iran to stay out of the conflict.
How has Hezbollah’s position changed in the recent conflict?
-Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities have been significantly weakened, which reduces the threat they pose to Israel and may give Israel more flexibility in responding to Iran.
What was the focus of President Biden’s recent briefings on the situation?
-President Biden and Vice President Harris were briefed on the situation, focusing on how the U.S. could continue supporting Israel, particularly by assisting with missile defense and other military operations.
What is the current situation for Israeli citizens in Tel Aviv after the Iranian attack?
-Israeli citizens in the Tel Aviv area were told by the military that they could leave their shelters after the immediate threat from the Iranian missile attack had subsided.
Outlines
🛑 Israeli Concerns Over Potential Iranian Nuclear Strike
The discussion revolves around Israel's concerns about Iran's advancing nuclear program. Although Iran is not currently capable of launching a nuclear strike, Israeli intelligence estimates it may take 1-2 years for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. The Israeli security cabinet is meeting in an underground bunker to address the situation, with expectations of a severe Israeli response. The conversation touches on past Israeli strategies to disrupt Iran's nuclear capabilities and speculates on the likelihood of a preemptive Israeli strike.
⚠️ U.S. Response and Support for Israel Amid Rising Tensions
This section outlines U.S. involvement in the ongoing conflict, focusing on President Biden's briefings and coordination with Vice President Harris on assisting Israel. The U.S. is providing defense systems and resources to help Israel counter Iranian missile attacks. Despite diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation, the Biden administration has faced challenges in averting a wider war, especially following a series of high-profile Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. U.S. military assets have been deployed to the region, signaling strong support for Israel.
💥 Iranian Retaliation and Israel's Strategic Calculations
This paragraph highlights the Iranian missile attack on an Israeli airbase and the broader implications of Iran’s actions. Despite previous warnings, Iran’s targeting of a significant Israeli airbase represents a shift in tactics. Israeli officials are now faced with calculating their next steps, especially given the diminished threat from Hezbollah, which has suffered heavy losses. The weakened position of Hezbollah could enable Israel to focus more on Iran without fear of immediate retaliation from Lebanon.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Iranian Nuclear Threat
💡Israeli Security Cabinet
💡Preemptive Strike
💡Iranian Ballistic Missiles
💡Hezbollah
💡U.S.-Israel Relations
💡Israeli Ground Offensive
💡Diplomatic Efforts
💡Netanyahu
💡Israeli Air Force
Highlights
Israeli security cabinet meeting in an underground bunker to discuss potential threats and responses.
Israeli intelligence suggests Iran will need 1-2 years to build a nuclear weapon capable of being launched.
Israel is expected to have a severe response to the Iranian attack, unlike the limited response in April.
Israeli officials have long considered a preemptive strike to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capability.
Current Israeli Defense Force (IDF) leadership may be more willing to recommend an attack on Iran's nuclear program.
U.S. and Israel have grown closer in their approach to regional events, despite past lack of prior consultation.
The U.S. has been deploying military assets to support Israel, including destroyers and fighter jets.
President Biden has directed U.S. support for Israel's defense against Iranian missile attacks.
The Biden administration has been trying to advance ceasefire proposals for Gaza and Lebanon, but without success.
Israel initiated a ground operation in southern Lebanon with no significant U.S. criticism.
The Israeli military has announced that Tel Aviv residents can leave their shelters.
Israeli fighter jets are engaged in operations in Lebanon following the Iranian attack.
An important Israeli airbase targeted by Iran is significant for its use in refueling missions and targeting missions.
Iran's hesitancy to support Hezbollah may have made Israel see this as an opportune moment to target Iran.
Hezbollah's weakened state may provide Israel a stronger position for retaliation against Iran.
Transcripts
I want to bring
in CNN political and global affairs
analyst, Barack Ravid right now. Barak
What do you anticipate?
because as you know
and as I know and as Anderson knows,
the Israelis have always suggested
that the greatest potential threat
to Israel from all over the area,
would be an Iranian nuclear
strike against Israel.
Iran has been working
on a nuclear bomb, as we all know,
and they're getting closer and closer.
How worried should
the world be right now
about that type of Iranian attack
against Israel?
I Wolf,
well,
the Israeli security
cabinet is sitting right now
in, underground bunker in the mountains
near Jerusalem to discuss exactly that,
whether there could be
another attack from Iran
and what's going to be
the Israeli response to the attack.
We just saw,
the Iranians
obviously still do not have,
a nuclear weapon, Israeli intelligence,
services
saying that it will take them at least
another between 1 to 2 years to build,
a nuclear device
that you can put on a missile and launch.
So in that sense,
there's no such threat at the moment.
But I think what we're going to see in
the next few hours
is a very, very severe response
from Israel to this Iranian attack
that will not look in any way
like the Israeli response
to the Iranian attack in April.
That was just launching one missile
at one anti-aircraft,
battery in an air base in near Isfahan.
I think we're going to see a very,
very serious response.
I think you're absolutely right.
And I asked the question
about the nuclear,
potential there, Barak,
because as you well know
and as I know, over the years,
the Israelis have always said,
that they would love an opportunity
to preempt
and destroy
Iran's potential nuclear capability.
there have been many top Israeli
military officials and others
who have said,
you know,
that the Israelis should do
so before
before Iran actually has a nuclear bomb.
what are the prospects,
do you think that even though
Iran is not yet
capable of launching a nuclear
strike at Israel,
Israel would use this moment
to try to undermine
Iran's nuclear capability?
We've know over the past few years,
Israel has attacked various
Iranian nuclear scientists, among others.
I think the
Iranian attack today gave,
all the justification
to the Israeli government
to go ahead with what you just described.
and for many years,
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
was thinking about such a move.
And the conditions right now,
I think, are
maybe more mature than any time before
for an Israeli attack against Israel,
against the Iranian nuclear program,
especially that one of the problems
Netanyahu had over
the years
was that the IDF was very hesitant
from taking such a step.
The current IDF leadership
is in a different place right now,
and it is, I think, very much willing,
to consider such a move
and to even recommend
such a move to the Israeli cabinet.
Barak, you
you have excellent
Israeli sources and excellent U.S.
sources. How serious is the tension?
how serious is the disagreement over
what's going on?
Right now between the U.S. and Israel?
I honestly, I don't
think there's a disagreement.
I think that in the last few days,
or in the last two weeks
since the major attacks,
I think the U.S.
and Israel
has been actually getting closer
when it comes to their thinking
about what's going on in the region.
the U.S.
was definitely unhappy
by the fact that the major attacks
and the Walkie-Talkie attacks
and the Nasrallah assassination
all happened without,
a prior notice and without consultation.
But at the same time, I haven't heard
even one, senior U.S.
official who was involved
in the decision making,
who does not think that
those Israeli attacks
were, at the end of the day,
the right thing to do?
And even when it comes to the ground
operation, Israel
started in southern Lebanon yesterday.
I haven't heard from any,
significant U.S.
official who was in the decision
making any criticism
about this ground operation.
Quite the contrary.
So I think that in many ways,
in the last two weeks,
the,
Israeli government and the white House,
regardless of the fact that there are,
you know, personal issues between Biden and. Yeah.
But overall,
I do not think that there are,
you know, major tensions or crises
right now. I think actually the opposite.
I want to go to the white House.
And Kayla,
she so I understand
President Biden was in
briefings this morning.
He was in
briefings this morning
with his national security team
and with Vice President Harris.
And we've learned, Anderson,
that the vice president
and the president together
were in the situation
monitoring these attacks
as they were carried out
by Iran and plotting how the U.S.
would continue coming to Israel's
defense and national security
spokesperson saying that
President Biden directed the U.S.
to continue
assisting Israel in shooting down
the missiles that Iran was firing
and to
continue to provide
those defenses to Israel.
But what's interesting,
Anderson and Wolf, is that this comes
after nearly a year of
ambivalence and hand-wringing
by the administration, fears
that there would be escalation
that would lead to a wider war,
and their diplomatic efforts
have really had the primary goal
of trying to thwart that from happening.
And in recent weeks,
they've been bracing for that potential,
starting with the
the targeted strike
that killed the political leader
of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in late July.
Then followed by several other attacks
that were carried out the pager
and walkie talkie attack
against several Hezbollah
leaders in Lebanon.
And then some of these raids in Lebanon
and then the
the killing of the leader of Hezbollah.
Obviously, this is all reached
a fever pitch
at a time when the Biden administration
has been working
feverishly behind the scenes
to advance ceasefire proposals,
both for war in Gaza
as well as the escalating situation
in Lebanon.
And those efforts
have continued to remain elusive.
So now, as we await concurrent briefings
from the Pentagon,
the State Department
and the white House,
there is still a very large question
of how the administration
can move forward
with its diplomatic efforts, at a time
when it appears that it's its potency
with the Israeli government
and the advice
that it's been trying to get behind
the scenes has fallen on deaf ears.
Anderson.
Wolf,
you the white House
watch Wolf, we know that the U.S.
has pre-positioned,
more assets in the region.
Destroyer in the eastern Mediterranean,
carrier strike group
in the Arabian Sea,
as well as fighter jets.
Clearly,
that the desire of the U.S.,
the intention,
the objective of that major
deployment of troops and equipment
by the United States
in the eastern Mediterranean
and elsewhere in the region,
is designed to help Israel, if necessary,
but also designed to try to deter,
either Iran or its proxies
from using this moment
to try to escalate this situation.
We'll see how that unfolds.
It didn't deter the Iranians
from launching
all those ballistic missiles towards
Israel over the past few hours.
Kayla. Toshi, thank you very, very much.
We're also hearing now
that the Israeli military
has just announced
that citizens in the Tel Aviv area
can leave their shelters.
Nic Robertson
is joining us from Haifa
in northern Israel right now.
So, Nic,
give us a sense of what's happening
in Haifa where you are.
Well, Wolf, still hearing fast
fighter jets overhead, clearly engaged,
in operations in Lebanon
just to the north of us here.
But I just want to draw us,
perhaps closer to the events of tonight.
One of the air bases in southern Israel
that was targeted by Iran tonight,
one of their stated targets.
I was at that air base over the weekend.
I was at that airbase
because I was invited,
to go on a combat mission
that was targeting the Houthis in Yemen.
I was on a refuel aircraft
refueling F-35s
that that carried out
that targeted mission on the Houthis.
And who data.
The reason for that targeting
was that
one of the reasons
was to send a message to Iran
not to get involved
in the fight right now.
So I find it significant
that the Iranians have targeted
that base.
They have tried to target it
before, and I won't give away
operational details
of the nature of that base
and everything that's at that base.
But I can tell you
it is an important
and a very significant base
for the Israeli Air Force.
And I think when we consider as well
what triggered
Iran to launch this attack, now,
we don't know.
But it is less than 24 hours ago
that Israel changed its tactics
against Hezbollah and decided
to go on a ground offensive into Lebanon.
One of the reasons I say
this is because the impression
that Iran has created by not backing up
Hezbollah more forcefully
until now,
while their leadership
has been decimated,
their
their command and control
has been decimated,
their military arsenal
has been decimated,
is that
Iran has appeared
to stand on the sidelines.
And as Hezbollah was Iran's major
ally, to attack Israel,
if Israel tried to attack Iran,
the fact that they were
being so decimated was beginning
to open
the same realization in Iran
as was being realized here,
that this may have been becoming
an opportune moment
to hit targets inside of Iran.
And I think when you
when when Israeli officials
try to figure out
what their next move is,
they are going to know
as they turn to strike back Iran
as they absolutely will,
their threat from Hezbollah
is diminished.
It's not where it was two weeks ago.
Hezbollah is credibly
and critically weakened,
and that may give Israel stronger
and better possibility as it as it forces
and enforces its deterrence
in this region by responding to Iran.
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