Fixing climate change is about to accelerate
Summary
TLDR视频讲述了“正面临的气候拐点”,其中一些是负面的,另一些是正面的。通过探讨社会和技术拐点的概念,视频重点介绍了如何通过政策干预加速低碳转型,例如电动汽车的普及和太阳能的推广等。中国和挪威等国家的成功案例表明,正面拐点可以带来巨大的变化,并推动全球能源转型。然而,视频也强调了应对这些变化所带来的负面影响,特别是在煤炭行业,并提出了关于如何制定这些政策的讨论。观众被鼓励思考谁应该决定这些拐点的推进。
Takeaways
- 🌍 气候临界点指的是系统在达到某个点后,微小的变化可能导致系统发生巨大变化。
- ❄️ 负面的气候临界点包括北极永冻层融化释放甲烷或大西洋环流关闭,可能导致欧洲进入冰河期。
- ⚡ 积极的气候临界点是社会或技术系统的小变化,能自我推动进入低碳状态,例如电动车的普及。
- 🚗 电动车的销售增长呈S形曲线,最初很少人购买,但随着更多人接受,销售急剧上升并最终趋于稳定。
- 🇳🇴 挪威已经达到了电动车的临界点,电动车数量超过了内燃机车,94%的新车是电动的。
- 🔋 科学家识别出多个潜在的社会临界点,可能在未来15到30年内触发,这包括碳中和城市、化石燃料支持减少等。
- 🌞 可再生能源的成本下降意味着我们已经在电力生产领域达到了临界点,太阳能和电池的部署大幅超出预测。
- 🇨🇳 中国在太阳能部署方面表现尤为突出,去年新增的太阳能容量超过美国历史总量。
- 💡 智能的政府政策干预能加速达到这些积极的气候临界点,例子包括中国政府对太阳能公司的贷款政策。
- 🤔 需要深入思考谁应该决定如何推动这些变化,科学家、政客或公众的角色应该如何平衡。
Q & A
什么是气候正向临界点?
-气候正向临界点是指一个小的变化能够引发系统自我推动的临界点。例如,电动车购买量增加会促使更多人购买,从而推动整个市场向电动车转型。
哪些例子可以说明气候正向临界点的影响?
-电动车的普及是一个例子。以挪威为例,目前94%以上的新车为电动车。这种普及表明挪威的交通部门已经达到了一个正向临界点。
什么是S曲线,它如何描述电动车的普及?
-S曲线是一种描述技术采用的曲线,起初采用率较低,但随着正反馈效应的出现,曲线迅速上升,最后趋于平稳,因为市场逐渐饱和。
为何电力生产成为一个关键的气候正向临界点?
-可再生能源,如太阳能和风能,成本迅速下降,使其成为许多地区最便宜的能源。这推动了电力生产向低碳能源的转型,进而降低了整体能源使用的碳排放。
中国如何推动全球太阳能电力生产的正向临界点?
-中国通过大量投资于太阳能发电设备,尤其是太阳能电池板的生产,大幅降低了全球太阳能的生产成本,从而推动了全球太阳能电力的快速增长。
如何通过政策干预加速正向临界点的实现?
-政府可以通过政策干预加速临界点的到来。例如,中国通过提供低风险贷款支持太阳能公司,帮助降低太阳能电力的成本。
什么是超级杠杆点,它如何加速多个领域的转型?
-超级杠杆点是指一个小的政策干预可以引发多个系统同时转型。例如,煤炭逐步淘汰政策会促进更廉价的可再生能源的使用,从而推动电力、电动汽车和其他行业的转型。
电动汽车的普及对其他领域有何影响?
-电动汽车普及可以降低电池成本,进而影响电网、运输和供热等多个领域,使这些领域更快地转型为低碳能源。
哪些其他领域也可能达到正向临界点?
-其他可能达到正向临界点的领域包括碳中和城市的建设、公众对气候变化的意识提升、低碳能源的更高经济回报等。
如何应对达到正向临界点后可能带来的负面影响?
-例如,逐步淘汰煤炭可能对煤炭行业的就业造成负面影响,因此在制定这些政策时需要考虑受影响的人群,确保这些转型的过程是公平的。
Outlines
🌍 气候转折点及其影响
本段介绍了气候转折点的概念,即系统在某个临界点后,由于微小的变化会发生剧变,进而影响整个系统。以北极永冻土融化和大西洋经向翻转环流停止为例,展示了负面转折点对气候的巨大影响。与此同时,提到了科学家希望实现的“正面转折点”,即通过小的社会或技术变革,引发自我推动的正反馈循环,像电动汽车的普及一样,使低碳技术成为主流。
🚗 电动汽车的指数增长与全球趋势
电动汽车的普及是正反馈循环的典型例子。随着更多人购买电动汽车,其他人也受到了影响并加入购买行列,导致市场快速增长。以挪威为例,该国超过94%的新车为电动汽车,显示出该国在交通领域的转折点。虽然美国和中国的电动汽车普及度不同,但全球都在迈向电动化,尤其是中国已超过50%的新车为电动汽车,显示了全球范围内的转变。
🌱 六个气候转折点及其重要性
本段介绍了科学家们识别出的六个社会和技术领域的气候转折点,包括碳足迹意识、公众反对化石燃料、金融资本从化石燃料撤资、城市实现碳中和以及可再生能源的经济回报高于化石燃料。其中,能源转折点尤为关键,因为能源系统支撑着整个文明,且目前可再生能源的成本已经大幅降低。
⚡ 能源转折点的到来
虽然目前仅在电力生产领域达到了能源转折点,但其他领域如交通和工业仍处于初步阶段。电力占总能耗的比重逐渐上升,这对实现低碳未来至关重要。中国的快速太阳能扩展是能源领域转折点的一个例子,政府政策和太阳能价格的下跌促成了这一发展。此外,政府的政策干预在推动转折点的过程中起到了决定性作用,例如中国政府的低风险贷款政策使太阳能技术变得更加便宜。
🎯 政策干预加速气候转折点
政府政策能够通过精准干预加速正面转折点的实现。例如,加速煤炭淘汰有助于降低电力成本,从而推动多个领域的电气化。通过精准设计的干预措施,例如强制使用绿色氨生产肥料或推广电动汽车,可能引发多领域的转折点级联效应,带来巨大的气候变化益处。
🧠 社会影响与决策的复杂性
虽然正面气候转折点的实现可能带来巨大好处,但也不可忽视其中的负面影响,尤其是对煤炭行业的就业造成的冲击。因此,谁来决定哪些转折点应被优先考虑是一个重要问题。作者提出,应该让科学家或政治家来做出这些决定,还是应该通过民主进程解决,值得探讨。作者认为,若不现在做出决策,未来的决策可能会更加糟糕。
⚖️ 气候转折点的学术争议
尽管大多数学者承认气候转折点的存在,但对其数量和影响存在争议。一些社会科学家批评物理科学家对转折点的研究过于广泛或不够严谨,并认为这种研究背后的动机是希望通过找到加速变化的杠杆点来应对迫在眉睫的危机。尽管如此,作者依然认为积极的气候转折点的存在是真实的,且政策干预可能会加速这些转折点的实现。
🔥 转折点与未来的挑战
正如有负面气候转折点一样,也有积极的社会和技术转折点。然而,不能过于依赖少数政策干预来解决气候变化问题。向低碳未来的转变将是艰难的,涉及各个行业的长期努力。尽管如此,在某些领域,如能源领域,已经取得了快速进展。未来的政策干预可能会进一步推动气候转折点的级联效应。
💡 Nebula平台上的独家内容
作者最后介绍了他在Nebula平台上的独家内容,并鼓励观众支持创作者。他提到Nebula作为一个无广告的平台,为观众提供了更好的观看体验,同时直接支持创作者的工作。作者还介绍了其他内容创作者和节目,强调了在这个平台上观看视频对支持独立创作的重要性。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡临界点
💡气候临界点
💡正面临界点
💡电动汽车
💡社会临界点
💡能源转型
💡清洁能源
💡政策干预
💡电气化
💡超级杠杆点
Highlights
Tipping points in climate systems can lead to dramatic changes, both positive and negative.
Positive climate tipping points involve small changes triggering self-propelling systems, such as the rise of electric vehicles.
Electric vehicle adoption is accelerating, with countries like Norway leading the way.
Key tipping points include the carbon footprint awareness and cities becoming carbon-neutral.
Renewables like solar energy have reached a tipping point in many parts of the world, becoming the cheapest energy source.
China's significant investment in solar energy has led to massive growth in renewable electricity capacity.
Super leverage points like coal phase-out and electric vehicle mandates could trigger tipping points across multiple sectors.
The electrification of various sectors, powered by renewables, can drastically reduce carbon emissions.
Renewable energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels in many regions, signaling a tipping point in global energy markets.
Battery technology innovations, especially in electric vehicles, can benefit both the transport and energy sectors.
Government policies have been instrumental in accelerating the growth of solar energy, particularly in China.
Targeted interventions can accelerate tipping points in sectors like energy, transport, and carbon-neutral cities.
Scientists emphasize that tipping points, both positive and negative, are crucial to addressing climate change.
Social tipping points, like public opinion turning against fossil fuels, play a key role in climate action.
The transition to a low-carbon future is already happening, but further government interventions could speed up progress.
Transcripts
you've probably heard of a Tipping Point
right A system that has a point Beyond
which just a small change can suddenly
dramatically change the whole
system you may have heard of climate
tipping points for example if the world
warms too much Arctic permafrost might
melt releasing tons of methane into the
atmosphere or the Atlantic meridianal
overturning circulation might shut down
plunging Europe back into Ice Age
conditions but did you know there are
also climate tipping points that
scientists want us to hit they're called
a positive Tipping Point is a point
where a small change can have a
disproportionate effect after which the
system becomes self-propelling to be
extremely clear these tipping points are
not physical like the circulation in the
Atlantic or the Amazon rainforest dying
back instead these are social or
technological tipping points so for
instance if one more person buys an
electric vehicle that creates a positive
interaction with other people making
this the dominant technology really good
example not that long ago there were
barely any electric vehicles on the road
and so when somebody bought one and
drove it around it showed other people
that these things existed but also that
they were cheap to run that they didn't
produce any tailpipe emissions and that
they were quiet and that made other
people more likely to buy one and that
effect only became more pronounced the
more people bought electric cars if we
put time on our horizontal axis and
electric vehicle uptake on our vertical
axis then uptake will look something
like this over time to begin with
basically nobody is buying electric
vehicles but as that positive feedback
loop starts to kick in driver starts
seeing other electric vehicles on the
road then the curve starts shooting
upwards eventually it gets really really
steep which can't last forever it has to
level out like this because eventually
everybody's going to have an electric
car the system has changed to a new
state if that sounds ridiculous to you
as an example you might want to look at
Norway electric cars now outnumber cars
with internal combustion engines in
Norway and in July this year over 94% of
all new cars bought there were electric
the transport sector in Norway reached a
Tipping Point I made a whole video about
why there specifically on nebula and
other countries are on a similar
trajectory sure the US for example is
down here on the S curve less than 10%
of new vehicles bought in the US this
year were electric vehicles but China is
about here more than 50% of new vehicles
bought in China this year were electric
but electric vehicle uptake isn't the
only low carbon system with a Tipping
Point scientists have identified several
Key Systems relevant to climate where
change can be modeled as an S
curve we'll come back to that where
we're seeing the early stages of exponen
potential growth with a huge shift a
Tipping Point on the horizon so what are
these systems this paper interviewed
experts from across Academia and
identified six climate tipping points
that could be reached in the next 15 to
30 years though the paper doesn't call
them tipping points they instead call
them social tipping elements
because Academia these tipping points
were more information becoming available
about our carbon footprint increased
awareness and understanding of climate
change oh hey that's what I public
opinion turning against fossil fuels the
withdrawal of financial support for
fossil fuel extraction I made a whole
video about that cities becoming carbon
neutral I just made a video about this
and low carbon energy yielding higher
Financial returns for producers than
energy produced by burning fossil fuels
that last one is seen as particularly
important because energy literally
underwrites civilization unfortunately
however we are still a way off that
Tipping Point psych we're already there
this paper was published in 2021 back
when they said of this energy Tipping
Point the empirical data show that this
critical threshold is about to be
reached the prices of Renewables have
dropped sharply in the last few years
and they have already become the
cheapest source of energy in many world
regions this year the International
Energy agency estimates that $3 trillion
will be spent on energy and of that 3
trillion 2 trillion will be spent on
clean energy and infrastructure total
spending on renewable
and grids is for the first time greater
than total spending on oil coal and gas
the positive Tipping Point in energy has
been reached and we can see that really
clearly in this report from nonprofit
RMI which found clear exponential growth
in global solar deployment and battery
cells far outpacing any previous
predictions we're currently living in
the Steep part of the energy scurve
though it is important to note that
energy doesn't just mean electricity
energy use means electricity use but
also transport heating cooling
industrial applications agriculture
loads of different sectors the energy
Tipping Point that we have reached is
really a Tipping Point in electricity
production the carbon intensity of other
uses of energy especially transport has
basically remained the same though the
fraction of all the energy we use that
comes from electricity has been steadily
increasing which is great news because
if you can elect fire sector and then
power it through Renewables you can
really lower its carbon intensity and
make it much more efficient and if you
want an example of where this is
happening really quickly look at China
China has recently rolled out a truly
staggering quantity of Renewables
especially solar last year they added
more solar capacity than the US has in
its entire history the reason for this
is because the price of solar panels
especially Chinese solar panels has
plummeted solar electricity is now the
cheapest form of energy for lots of
applications hence why the Chinese
energy economy is becoming increasingly
electrified but cheap Chinese solar
panels isn't just good news for China so
because China is one of the main
producers the price the cost to to
produce electricity has become quite
similar in different countries because
most countries imported from China which
means that in some sense we have more of
a global tipping points than in some
other sectors like heat pumps which have
very highly variable prices across
countries that said some technologies
like wind for instance do have European
producers that produce for very low
costs as well but we didn't just hit
that solar Tipping Point with cheap
solar panels and exponential uptake by
Chance the authors of this paper and
scientists more generally are Keen to
stress that we don't just need to wait
for these tipping points to happen in
fact through smart government policy we
can accelerate our progress towards them
and our way down the S curve with
targeted
interventions get away for example how
exactly did solar panels become so cheap
I'm oversimplifying but starting in the
late 2000s the Chinese government
started providing large cheap lowrisk
loans to Chinese solar companies which
took those loans scaled up their
operations started to benefit from
economies of scale and invested in R&D
and the result are solar panels that are
10 times cheaper now than they were at
the start of the century it was a
government policy designed to intervene
in the Solar Market obviously to benefit
Chinese interests but also to bring down
the cost of solar electricity and other
such interventions are known to exist
going back to the 2021 paper
interventions that could accelerate us
hitting the non-energy Tipping points
include the creation of specifically
carbon neutral cities inspiring building
codes elsewhere promoting the investment
movement reducing the value of fossil
fuel assets simulations suggests just 9%
of investors divesting from fossil fuels
could be enough to tip the whole system
and improving resources available to
Educators about climate change but why
stop with just trying to flip one system
into a new state what if you could
design a small precise intervention that
would cause a Tipping Point Cascade
multiple systems one after another
flipping into new stes well FEMA has
just released a new paper on what she
calls super leverage points so we
identified two super leverage points in
uh in our work one is a call phase out
if we can accelerate a call phase out
depending on on how far countries are
along and force countries to use cheaper
solar and wind and batteries then that
can drive down electricity costs which
because we're electrifying everything
has rep Rion in all the other sectors a
previous study also found that mandating
fertilizers be produced with a certain
fraction of green ammonia so that's
ammonia produced with hydrogen made
through renewable electricity as another
Super leverage point because that would
mean through economies of scale green
hydrogen becomes more affordable and so
hydrogen-based Solutions in other
sectors like shipping and steel become
more viable though still not heating
houses just get in the bin with that
idea but the other super leverage point
identified in this new study which was
the first one to quantitatively look for
these tipping points in the electricity
sector is a mandate for electric
vehicles if you put such a mandate in
place this has repercussions on all
three other sectors we studied so for
the trucks it's quite simple it's the
same or very similar technology so
innovation in one technology will also
lead to innovation in the truck phace
the second one is that the battery in
cars can be used in the power sector in
three ways so you've got vehicle to grid
applications you've got a secondhand
Market of these batteries and the third
one is that you also have battery that
you would buy for your grid independent
of these cars and you can use those uh
Insight from Innovation from cars for
your power sector applications so that
becomes cheaper which also means that
electric cars become cheaper heat poops
become cheaper because electricity is
cheaper but just a minute minute I I'm
going to do something that I don't
usually do in these videos I'm going to
step outside of the discussion I'm going
to need a coat hang on we are talking
about making changes to society that
will have huge impacts and this is
something that is a constant Factor when
you're talking about climate stuff but
it feels especially pointed here because
you're by Design talking about making
the smallest possible changes to produce
the largest possible impact and while we
call them positive tipping points we
can't ignore the fact that there will be
negative consequences associated with
hitting some of them for example if you
phase out coal then that's going to
negatively impact people who are
employed in the coal industry and that
can be entire areas now I'm not trying
to say that we shouldn't have a coal
phase out because I very much think it
is a net positive thing to do but we
can't ignore those negative consequences
so the question of who gets to decide
which tipping points are targeted and in
what Manner is an important one should
it be politicians designing these
policies or should it be scientists if
so which politicians which scientists
should this be a democratic process
where everybody get a vote because this
will impact everyone or is democracy too
slow to implement change at the pace
that we need the Tipping points group at
the University of exter has the
statement in one of their papers that if
we don't decide this stuff now the
future will decide for us and that
version of the future will almost
certainly be worse for us I don't think
many people would disagree with that but
it still sidesteps the question of who
exactly gets to decide I would be very
interested in what you have to say about
this please leave a comment with who you
think gets to decide this stuff because
everybody should have an opinion about
this this is huge stuff we're talking
about that will impact everyone and I'm
just a physical scientist by training
I'm not a political or social scientist
let alone a philosopher who do I think
has the right to make this decision I I
can't say I don't know what I can say in
this video is that the world is
currently hurtling towards various
tipping points and we're likely closer
to many of them than you think and while
many of those tipping points are
negative some of them are positive and
if we hit those ones first it could
profoundly change how we live our lives
and how much damage we do to our
planet oh uh yeah not everybody agrees
on what is and isn't a Tipping Point and
some social scientists argue that
physical scientists are borrowing
techniques from their field and
implementing them sloppily or too
broadly or without a full enough
understanding of the literature and they
suggest that one of the reasons why
physical scientists are doing this is
because it gives them it gives us hope
the sustainability imperative that
dominates much of Global Science and
governance processes today combined with
the sense that we are running out of
time is a key motivator for social
tipping research and it's success in
review processes as the possibility of
failure is looming larger every day we
are eager to find new levers of change
that can speed things up and Trigger
rapid Transformations towards new
sustainable stable States and there are
certainly some dubious studies that draw
historical parallels that I'm not
convinced are necessarily appropriate
and maybe assume a level of control over
some systems that we can't be sure that
we have I'm mentioning this for
completeness sake I'm not trying to say
that tipping points don't exist I think
they do I think most academics would
agree with me but perhaps they are not
as numerous as they are in the
literature and I do think that we need
to be careful in how we discuss them but
here's the rub just as there are
physical negative climate tipping points
that we don't want to hit there are
social and technological positive
climate tipping points that we do
however we cannot fall into the trap in
discussing these positive tipping points
that we can somehow fix climate change
with just a few targeted policy
interventions people have just got to
stop believing in nudge Theory it
doesn't work the transition to a low
carbon future is going to be hard it's
going to take a lot of work and time
across basically every sector
but it's already happening and in
certain sectors progress can leap and
indeed is leaping forwards and maybe
just maybe in these sectors there are a
few government policies that if properly
enacted can cause not just a Tipping
Point in one area but a Tipping Point
Cascade and I don't think the hope we
can take from that idea is a false one
now if you've seen a YouTube video
before this is where you might expect me
to say hey remember that video I
mentioned earlier about electric cars on
nebula well you can sign up with this
link but no I'm not going to do that
instead I'm going to tell you about this
half hour documentary I made about
designing and building this new YouTube
studio and this hourlong actual play
video of climate scientists playing the
best board game about fixing climate
change and my video about Norway and
electric cars the point being I've made
a lot of stuff that's available on
nebula nebula is like Netflix for people
who like trains it's a place where some
of your favorite creators upload
thoughtful videos to a platform that we
co-own our videos are available on
nebula before anywhere else and in many
cases aren't available anywhere else
I've already met mentioned some of my
exclusive content but there are more
than a hundred creators doing so such as
real life law NY red climate town and
Tom Nicholas and then of course there's
the content produced by nebula such as
the getaway this is a show starring a
range of YouTubers traveling across
America competing for a cash prize by
completing tasks and trying to sabotage
the other contestants it has possibly
the best twist I've ever seen in one of
these shows which I don't want to ruin
you'll just have to watch it for
yourself a subscription to to nebula
that allows you to watch everything ad
free and also to download videos to your
device for I don't know long train
Journeys is split between nebula itself
covering costs and financing new shows
like the getaway and the creators that
you watch so by watching my videos on
nebula you directly support my work far
more than by giving me a view on YouTube
and frankly you also get a better
viewing experience too to get such a
subscription which is usually $6 a month
head to
/ Simon Clark where you can get 40% off
an annual plan meaning it costs just
$25 a month that's $25 a month to get
access to a huge library of highquality
thoughtful content free yourself from
watching ads and support independent
creators like me nebula.com
a huge thank you to those people who
support me over on
patreon.com/crashcourse
Johnson very long-term supporter of this
Channel and Diddy Barry truly you are
the fastest of all patrons if you'd like
to watch another video from me here's to
I prepared earlier please do the YouTube
pleasantries pop me a like leave your
thoughts in a comment below and that
just needs me to say thank you again for
watching I'll see you in the next one
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