Big Risk - Big Prize. Next Cancer Drug. Summit Therapeutics Analysis SMMT Stock | Martin Shkreli
Summary
TLDRIn the video transcript, the speaker discusses the complexities of analyzing pharmaceutical stocks, particularly focusing on Summit Therapeutics. They mention the company's pivot from an ADR to an antibiotic and the surprising acquisition of 22 million shares, catapulting Summit to become one of the largest biotech companies. The discussion delves into the reliability of Chinese clinical trial data and the potential impact on Summit's stock valuation. The speaker also speculates on the company's future, considering the results of a phase three clinical trial and the possibility of partnerships, while expressing caution about making definitive investment decisions based on the current data.
Takeaways
- 🧐 The speaker believes that analyzing pharmaceutical stocks requires a multidisciplinary approach and is not easy for anyone to master.
- 📉 The company Summit Therapeutics is discussed, which pivoted from an antibiotic to a pharmaceutical company and experienced significant growth.
- 💡 The importance of not hyper-fixating on one stock is emphasized, as the market is vast and opportunities can be missed by focusing too narrowly.
- 📈 The stock of Summit Therapeutics surged due to a licensing deal, highlighting the potential for rapid growth in the pharmaceutical industry.
- 🔍 The speaker admits to missing out on covering Summit Therapeutics, underscoring the need for full-time dedication to stay updated on market movements.
- 🤔 There's skepticism about the reliability of Chinese clinical trial data, which is a point of discussion regarding Summit's drug performance.
- 📊 The speaker analyzes a clinical trial result, comparing the performance of Summit's drug to existing treatments, focusing on median progression-free survival (PFS).
- 💼 Mention of Bob Dugan, a trusted figure in biopharma, and his association with Summit Therapeutics, which adds credibility to the company.
- 🚀 The stock's valuation reached $12 billion, raising questions about its potential and the reliability of the clinical trial results supporting this value.
- 🤝 The potential for a big partnership is anticipated if the clinical trial results are legitimate, indicating future growth opportunities for Summit.
Q & A
What is the main topic of discussion in the transcript?
-The main topic of discussion is the analysis of pharmaceutical stocks, specifically focusing on Summit Therapeutics, a company that pivoted to develop an antibiotic and later became a significant player in the biotech industry.
What is the significance of the 80% figure mentioned in the transcript?
-The 80% figure refers to the ownership stake of Bob Dugan in Summit Therapeutics, which is a substantial portion, indicating his significant influence and investment in the company.
What is the importance of multidisciplinary knowledge in analyzing pharmaceutical stocks?
-Multidisciplinary knowledge is crucial in analyzing pharmaceutical stocks because the field is complex and requires understanding from various disciplines to make informed decisions about a company's potential and its products.
Why did the speaker miss the pivot of Summit Therapeutics?
-The speaker missed the pivot of Summit Therapeutics because they were not closely monitoring the market, highlighting the importance of being actively engaged in the market to catch significant changes in companies' strategies.
What is the potential issue with hyper-fixating on one stock, as mentioned in the transcript?
-Hyper-fixating on one stock can cause investors to miss out on other potentially better investment opportunities in the market, as they become too focused on a single stock and overlook other stocks that may be performing better.
What is the significance of the 12 billion figure in the context of Summit Therapeutics?
-The figure of 12 billion refers to the market capitalization of Summit Therapeutics, which is a significant amount, especially considering the company's relatively recent rise in the biotech industry.
What is the 'Forbes 30 under 30' list mentioned in the transcript?
-The 'Forbes 30 under 30' list is an annual list by Forbes magazine that recognizes 30 young entrepreneurs, innovators, and leaders under the age of 30 in various fields, including business, technology, and healthcare.
What is the clinical trial 'Harmony 3' mentioned in the transcript?
-Harmony 3 is a phase three clinical trial mentioned in the context of Summit Therapeutics' drug development. It involves 322 patients and aims to demonstrate a reduction in disease progression or death.
What does the acronym 'PD-1' stand for and why is it significant in the transcript?
-PD-1 stands for Programmed cell death protein 1, which is a protein that functions as an immune checkpoint and plays a crucial role in the interaction between the body's immune system and cancer cells. In the transcript, it is significant because Summit Therapeutics' drug is a PD-1 inhibitor, which could potentially revolutionize cancer treatment.
What is the concern about the Chinese data mentioned in the transcript?
-The concern about the Chinese data is the reliability of the clinical trial results, as sometimes data from Chinese studies may not be as robust or replicable as data from other regions, which could impact the validity of the drug's effectiveness.
What does the speaker mean by 'the old Buffett saying' in the context of making a bet on a stock?
-The speaker is referring to Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, which emphasizes not making bets on investments unless there is a clear understanding and confidence in the investment. In the context of the transcript, the speaker is considering whether to invest in Summit Therapeutics' stock based on the available data and the company's potential.
Outlines
🧪 Analyzing Pharmaceutical Stocks and Summit Therapeutics
The speaker discusses the complexity of analyzing pharmaceutical stocks due to their multidisciplinary nature. They emphasize the importance of staying updated with the market and not fixating on a single stock. The focus then shifts to Summit Therapeutics, a company that pivoted from an antibiotic to a PD1 drug, which led to a significant increase in its stock value after licensing the drug for $13 billion. The speaker highlights the need for full-time investment effort to keep up with market changes and mentions the company's phase three Harmony 3 trial, which showed promising results with a 54% reduction in disease progression or death.
📈 Summit Therapeutics' Market Impact and Clinical Trial Analysis
The speaker continues the discussion on Summit Therapeutics, noting its rapid rise to become one of the largest biotech companies. They delve into the clinical trial results, comparing the performance of Summit's drug to Kud's drug, which is a top-selling cancer medication. The analysis includes a comparison of progression-free survival times and the potential for doctors to switch to Summit's drug if the benefits are significant. The speaker also touches on the challenges of relying on Chinese clinical trial data and the importance of considering various factors such as patient demographics and trial conditions when evaluating drug efficacy.
📊 Weighing the Evidence: Summit Therapeutics' Clinical Trial Outcomes
In this paragraph, the speaker grapples with the implications of Summit Therapeutics' clinical trial outcomes. They compare the results to other studies and discuss the significance of the trial's design, patient demographics, and baseline conditions. The speaker also considers the company's valuation and the potential impact of the drug's performance on the market. They express caution about making definitive conclusions based on the current data and the need for further clinical evidence to solidify the drug's position in the market.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Pharmaceutical Stocks
💡Summit Therapeutics
💡ADR (Anti-Drug Response)
💡Pivoted
💡Retail Investors
💡GameStop
💡PD-1/PD-L1
💡Phase Three Clinical Trial
💡Median PFS (Progression-Free Survival)
💡Bob Dugan
💡Market Cap
Highlights
The complexity of analyzing pharmaceutical stocks requires a multidisciplinary approach.
Summit Therapeutics had a pivot from an ADR to an antibiotic.
Bob Dugan's involvement with Summit Therapeutics.
The importance of not hyper-fixating on a single stock in the market.
The need for full-time commitment to stay updated on the market's many stocks.
Summit Therapeutics' unexpected rise to become one of the largest biotech companies.
The licensing deal that catapulted Summit Therapeutics to a $13 billion valuation.
The challenge of getting on the Forbes 30 under 30 list and its evolution over time.
The licensing of a Chinese company's drug and its potential impact.
The phase three Harmony 3 trial's results and their significance.
The comparison of Summit Therapeutics' drug to Kud's drug in terms of median PFS.
The potential for a big partnership deal for Summit Therapeutics.
The difficulty in replicating Chinese clinical trial results in other markets.
The importance of the inclusion and exclusion criteria in clinical trials.
The potential market cap of Summit Therapeutics and its implications.
The speculation on whether the clinical trial results will hold up over time.
The potential for Summit Therapeutics' drug to be a breakthrough in cancer treatment.
The comparison of Summit Therapeutics' drug to other drugs in the market.
The strategic considerations for investors regarding Summit Therapeutics' stock.
The potential for Summit Therapeutics to become a high-value stock in the future.
Transcripts
he owns
80% no way this guy is up 12 B's on this
thing I think anyone can learn how to
analyze pharmaceutical stocks it's
not it is so multidisciplinary that no
one discipline will actually help you so
that's one thing to keep in mind so all
to talk today is this company
summit summit Therapeutics which kind of
had an ADR and then didn't this is Bob
duin's thing and then they they had an
antibiotic and I guess at some point
they pivoted I missed that so I missed
this whole Spiel that's one of the
problems with uh if you're not so front
and center in the market and I think
this is what a lot of retail investors
get wrong when they hyper fixate on one
stock like a GameStop or a Sava or
whatever there still there's so many
stocks in the market so while you're
waiting and like thinking about your
same old stock there's often times like
a a better stock that's out there and
you're just kind of so focused on this
one stock because you don't know any
better and you know I try to cover as
many stocks as I can but even I can't do
it that's why funds have many people on
a team and um Summit is one of these
stocks that kind of I just missed and
that's why you need to do this
full-time if you're going to be investor
you really have to try to do it
full-time so it's still a Lon company I
think let me see I don't think shorting
Boeing is a great great idea um yeah so
when did they in license this thing and
why isn't airo up a bunch wow somebody
bought 22 million shares this thing so
this is one of the biggest biotech
companies
Now isn't that crazy it just all of a
sudden became one of the largest
stocks and it's a pd1 VF by specific 13
billion from one license there's so many
companies that spent decades building up
their business and some it's
already at 13 billion from one license
crazy huh it's almost like bdnl is a
really important function at these
companies well anyway yeah the 30 under
30 list um I don't know what to say um
it was only 30 people way back when and
I recommended V to the list after
because I think he's a couple years
younger than me and I was just turning
30 and he was like 28 or 29 or something
V made list the next year but the next
year was 30 under 30 in
each you can't exactly pay for a spot
but it's gotten so bad they need they
need people so bad that they you can
almost kind of use PR a PR person to get
name to it so hey well the guy at Forbes
Nathan VY who wrote the for Blood and
Money book which I still haven't read V
asked me who who belongs on the Forbes
30 under 30 and I just mentioned cuz he
was
my largest stockholder at the time or
one of them the story was even more
impressive than maybe I realized oh this
is a kizo not airo I thought it was a
KIRO oops this is this is a Chinese
company they they are publicly traded
bit of an ARB here well maybe not a huge
ARB but okay so they got the license a
while back so there's no
excuse yeah
so it's up a lot on Chinese data the
question is is the Chinese data
reliable sometimes it
isn't it's hard to say it depends
exactly on the results exactly you know
just a bunch of details but so they're
doing a phase three Harmony 3 I'll show
you the key to like analyzing all right
322 let's analyze this trial a little
bit 322 patients 54% reduction in
disease progression or death I don't
think that's the result that we care
about right we care about the new result
49% versus pemro in first line pdl1
positive median PFS of 11 months versus
6 months so basically we have to check
if this is the right number right for
for K truda because if this number is a
little bit too high and this number is a
little bit too low then you can kind of
make some conclusions from that but if
the Kuda number is very good or is
comports with what has already been
reported then you can assume the trial
was run relatively well to some extent
here's a study that we can maybe glance
at so do you guys see chat do you see
what I see here I don't know I might
short this for an intraday for an
intraday trade so basically the idea I
mean I still think this they'll get like
a big partnership and all this stuff
looks fairly balanced just a little bit
of imbalance with the metastases but not
enough to sway the trial I don't think
yeah I don't know if you if you see it's
really hard to tell
if I mean there's clear separation I I
would concede that but this static can
still mature a little bit more I I guess
one perspective to keep here is kud is
such a big seller that even if one oh
all the benefit driven by okay well 3B
is small group here it's almost all four
healthier did better but that's a small
group too I guess one way to look at it
is look even if uh the benefit Narrows
which I suspect it will are even going
to get people switching over will
doctors switch over because after all
better is better right any amount better
is better yeah I got to say I mean it
could be cheap could be a cheap stock
I'm waffling on this
one
because I still want to look at the data
but it does seem like in a controlled
study they beat Kuda and Kuda is selling
20 billion in Revenue almost all profit
you know they're going to do a uh big
secondary tonight but that's almost to
be
expected Bob Dugen is such a trusted guy
in biofarma yeah I mean the only there's
a couple pieces of diligence here I
don't think it changes the landscape for
ioa because this is first line and
they're really treating lastline
patients but I guess if you look at that
5.8 number if it was really
7.4 in other words here your curves are
so close at that point that one or two
patience gets you back to sort of what
you'd
expect this is a tough
one on one hand you have Bob Dugen the
pharmacyclics Maestro no the market cap
of this is 12 billion this is survival
so these are the red line is people on
krudo which is MC's bestselling cancer
drug one of the best selling drugs in
the world the blue line is people on
this new drug from SS smmt Summit oh you
be
quiet he's a little baby it does look
better than Merc yeah yeah definitely
looks better than Merc oh I really don't
want to say something negative and then
have
it come back to haunt me it certainly
looks better than Sava I mean it could
be a real
breakthrough this was a bigger study
Chinese patients are also a little bit
different than us patients
[Music]
[Applause]
is
so basically the idea is like okay your
drug did 11 months and you're saying
it's better because the other drug did
six months but something's wrong with
this because typically people who get
that drug don't live for six months or
have PFS for six months they usually
get
um no this is a better long way better
long sava's not a long yeah exactly it's
it's it's going to be a while before we
see more clinical trial results and this
that is a little sus cuz you you can
give I mean I guess the reason you don't
want to give a vaston is it's toxic I do
analyze we're we're trying to get our
head through head around this um result
the China thing doesn't help a lot of
Chinese studies don't exactly replicate
but a lot do too this is really tricky
Summit is the one of the largest biotech
companies in the world now they have one
drug uh I van esab and we're just trying
to see if this result is legit or not I
don't I think it's I don't think we're
going to get the answer today but I do
think you have a a very unusually low
performance for the control group The
thing about controlled studies is you
kind of have to believe them like H I
don't know like it was such a big big
benefit it's really hard to say that
this is like something that shouldn't be
trusted or like something that you know
should be avoided you think about the
valuation
12 billion well now it's even
higher 15 billion just not small cells
like 15 billion in Revenue
potential H this is tricky because I
guess if you think about it that way if
it's 5050 that this holds up relatively
High discount rate there's not that much
upside it might double and then of
course if you're 50/50s right you double
again the problem with looking at the
other studies is that this
trial rep says supposed to represent the
randomized sample so looking at another
study like keynote o24 was done by the
keynote o24 investigators which is a
different sample right those are maybe
like tertiary hospitals academic centers
this one might have been rural Chinese
hospitals very big difference and K24
was open label I mean typically you do
get rapid progression early on that's
not uncommon uh I don't think maybe
you'll look at kot2 for within three
months to already be down to 70% unusual
yeah the the inclusion and exclusion is
important the Baseline is even more
important okay so they had some pdl1
here's PDL pdl1 low and PDL one
high and if you look at that median PFS
sort of the same little little faster
here a little slower here but either way
it's a
win I don't know it looks like a
w if I had to sort of put everything
against each
other all the puts and takes i' sort of
narrowly edge out on the W the problem
is it's like really hard to the old
Buffett saying you know do I have to
make a
bet don't have to make a you don't ever
have to make a
bet but you do have clear separation you
have Bob duck
presumably isn't isn't a fraudster rich
enough he doesn't need to do this twice
guy's just becoming a legend right now
and this it's funny this used to be a 3
to six month PFS and
Os now you're you know like 6mon OS now
you're talking about 22 28 maybe even 30
months here on on overall survival more
time to say goodbye I suppose uh and
maybe some patients even get cured um
but this data will mature more and as it
matures I expect these Lions will get a
little closer but they're probably not
going to get so close to overlap or come
close to that he's
80% no way he's
up this guy is up 12 B's on this thing
you heard that chat 12 billion man I'm a
hater jealous hater right now and if he
gets to 70 billion I mean
he'll you know I don't know what to say
and how the Baker Brothers get in on
this and maybe long 50 basis points I
think that's going to be my
final final verdict
here man this is tricky I the other
problem is I don't think momentum is
going to work in this market this MOA
sucks the rationale is you
have the other arm of pd1
anchoring the cell and the other arm of
vef anchoring the vasculature but
I'm not sure I buy that at
all at higher maybe they just got the
dose right because at higher doses
you're going to get the V Adverse Events
I think it's going to be better I think
it's going to be better than Kuda which
is like basically going to get you a I
don't know $100 stock at least something
like
that but it's going to take time like
they have to show that result
again and before that's that's assuming
the result happens they'll get too well
then you have other indications possibly
what I guess what they could do to a
27's point
is do a melanoma study or do a single
arm
study and see if you can't get
replicatable like or gets better I guess
you still have to get better than Kuda
yeah these studies take a while like
especially the adant studies stage three
studies stage three lung cancer not
phase three clinical
trial uh yeah this is so tricky see I
wouldn't I just wouldn't Advocate like
if you really want a speculative crazy
high flyer stock this might be a decent
decent long but I'm not sure that's the
is definitely a wild animal this thing
is going to be interesting for years to
come years to come
Voir Plus de Vidéos Connexes
“근거 중심 의학”은 이렇게 강탈 당했다 [스타틴 연구 대사기극] 마케팅 도구로 전락해버린 부패한 의학 연구들
E388 Up 4.4% and disappointed, GameStop is a weird feeling.
지금 5,000만원 있다면 '이 3개 주식' 꼭 사모으세요 (슈퍼개미 이정윤 세무사)
Billionaire investor Ron Baron: Expect Tesla's stock to go up 'huge' now
Here's What No Else Tells You About Buying Palantir + NVDA
The truth about finasteride’s side effects
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)