Russians SPREAD PANIC In The Southern Front - Ukraine War Map Update 21/Aug/2024
Summary
TLDRIn this video, Georgia discusses Ukraine's military advances in the K region, including their efforts to disrupt Russian pontoon bridges. She addresses Russian panic and the potential for Ukraine to launch attacks in the south. The video analyzes the force ratios, equipment deliveries, and mobilization efforts in Ukraine. Georgia speculates on possible Ukrainian strategies, including a diversionary tactic similar to the Kerch operation. She also highlights the challenges Russia faces in capturing cities like Pavlograd and the significance of the Nord Stream pipeline attack, emphasizing that such pipelines should not have existed.
Takeaways
- 🇺🇦 Ukraine continues to make advances in the K region, targeting pontoon bridges to restrict Russian movements.
- 🔍 There are conflicting reports about Ukrainian military movements in the south, with some suggesting a potential buildup of forces.
- 🔄 The force ratio in the Kers operational area is approximately 1:2 in favor of Russia, with Ukrainian forces estimated between 5,000 to 10,000 and Russian forces between 10,000 to 20,000.
- 🤔 The Russian forces are poorly organized and consist of a mix of different units with varying morale levels.
- 🚀 Despite being outnumbered, Ukraine is advancing due to smarter and faster tactical maneuvers.
- 🔄 The equipment and troops situation is unclear, with questions about where the newly mobilized and trained forces are located.
- 🌍 The geopolitical implications of the war are significant, with the potential to affect areas like Crimea and the Nord Stream pipelines.
- 🏙️ The capture of Pakros and Mirat would be a significant challenge for Russia, as these cities are larger and more complex than previous targets like Bahmut.
- ⏳ Time is a crucial factor, with the expectation that any significant advances or changes in the war will take considerable time.
- 💥 The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines is mentioned, with the suggestion that they should not have been there in the first place due to their connection to Putin's regime.
Q & A
What is the current situation of Ukraine's advances in the K region?
-Ukraine is continuing their successful advances in the K region, with reports indicating they are hunting for pontoon bridges that Russians are trying to erect over a river to prevent encirclement.
Are there any reports of panic among Russian forces?
-Yes, there have been reports of panic among Russian forces, particularly from Romanov, although these reports have been dismissed as fake.
What is the estimated ratio of forces between Ukraine and Russia in the K region?
-The ratio of forces in the K region is approximately 1 to 2 in favor of Russia, with Ukraine estimated to have between 5,000 and 10,000 troops and Russia between 10,000 and 20,000.
What is the issue with the Russian forces in the K region?
-The Russian forces in the K region are poorly organized, a mix of different units with poor morale, and include conscripts, making them an inefficient fighting force.
What is the significance of the US security assistance Bill for Ukraine?
-The US security assistance Bill restarted a lot of weapon deliveries to Ukraine, significantly increasing the amount of pledged and supposedly delivered equipment.
What was the outcome of Ukraine's mobilization Bill passed in May?
-The mobilization Bill was a success, leading to an increase in conscripts with about 2-3 months of training, and now these conscripts are expected to be trained and ready for deployment.
Where are the new brigades and equipment that Zalinski stated were coming into Ukraine?
-It is unclear where the new brigades and equipment are, as they have not been seen in large numbers in the K region, suggesting they may be held in reserve or deployed elsewhere.
What is the potential strategy behind Ukraine's military movements?
-Ukraine may be preparing for another strategic move, possibly a diversion similar to the Kerch operation, where they applied pressure in one area to strike in another.
What is the current status of the Russian advance in the Zaparozhye region?
-There are reports of an accumulation of Ukrainian forces in the south, but it is not clear if Ukraine is planning a full-blown attack on the Zaparozhye region.
What challenges does the city of Pavlograd pose for a potential Russian capture?
-Pavlograd, along with Mirat, forms a union of cities that is larger and more challenging to capture than Bahmut, which was the biggest city Russia captured so far. The area is more dispersed and would require a significant force to encircle and capture.
What is the author's stance on the Nord Stream incident?
-The author suggests that the Nord Stream pipelines should not have been built in the first place, as they facilitated Putin's regime and undermined democracy in Europe.
Outlines
🔍 Analyzing Ukraine's Military Advancements
In this paragraph, the speaker discusses Ukraine's ongoing military successes in the K region, where they are reportedly dismantling Russian attempts to build pontoon bridges over a river. Despite rumors of a full-scale attack in the Zaparozhye region, the speaker emphasizes that there is no concrete evidence of such an offensive. Instead, they highlight the importance of understanding the broader situation on the front lines and the orientation of forces. The speaker also points out the disparity in troop numbers between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the K area, noting that while the Russians have more troops, they are poorly organized and lack morale. The discussion also touches on the potential impact of the US security assistance bill and the mobilization of Ukrainian forces, questioning where the additional equipment and troops might be deployed.
🌐 Speculating on Ukraine's Strategic Deployment
The second paragraph delves into the potential strategic movements of Ukrainian forces. The speaker questions the location of the newly mobilized troops and equipment, suggesting that they are not currently engaged in the K region. They hypothesize that these forces may be part of a larger strategic plan, possibly a diversionary tactic similar to the one used in the Kerch operation. The speaker also discusses the reduced intensity of Russian advances in certain areas, suggesting that this could be due to a reallocation of forces to other regions. There is a particular focus on the potential for Ukraine to launch an attack in the Zaparozhye region, despite the challenges of such an endeavor.
🏗️ Assessing the Difficulty of Capturing Pavlograd
In this section, the speaker analyzes the challenges that Russian forces would face in capturing the city of Pavlograd, which is composed of two cities, Pavlograd and Mirat. They compare the size and defensive capabilities of Pavlograd to the city of Bakhmut, which was captured by Russia after a long and bloody battle. The speaker emphasizes that capturing Pavlograd would be an even more significant challenge due to its size and the strength of its defensive lines. They also discuss the potential strategies that Russia might employ, such as encircling the city, and the likelihood of a prolonged and difficult battle.
💥 Debunking Claims and Supporting Ukraine
The final paragraph addresses the controversy surrounding the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, with the speaker suggesting that even if Ukrainians were involved, the pipelines should never have been built due to their connection to Putin's regime. The speaker also acknowledges a Polish volunteer's efforts in supporting Ukraine and encourages viewers to contribute to a fundraising campaign for the Ukrainian military. The paragraph concludes with a message of unity and support for Ukraine.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡K region
💡pontoon bridges
💡Romanov
💡Zapora region
💡Force ratio
💡Mobilization Bill
💡Conscripts
💡Attrition warfare
💡Security Assistance Bill
💡Pavlograd
💡Nord Stream
Highlights
Ukraine continues successful advances in the K region.
Ukraine is reportedly hunting for pontoon bridges over a river to lock in Russian forces.
Reports of panic among Russians, with dismissals from Romanov.
Contrary reports suggest Ukraine is not attacking the Zaparozhye region in the south.
Other channels report accumulation of Ukrainian forces in the South.
Understanding the situation on the front line is crucial for context.
Approximate force ratio in the Kers operational area is 1 to 2 in favor of Russians.
Russian forces are poorly organized and have low morale.
Ukrainian forces are fighting smarter, despite being outnumbered.
Question arises about the location of the rest of the equipment and troops.
US security assistance Bill and its effect on weapon deliveries to Ukraine.
Ukraine's successful mobilization bill leading to more conscripts.
Forces operating in the Kerch region are mostly withdrawn from the Donbas area.
Zalinski's statement about new brigades and equipment coming into Ukraine.
Speculation about potential Ukrainian strategies and Russian reactions.
Russian forces' challenges in capturing cities like Bakhmut and the potential for Pakros to be even more difficult.
The significance of Pakros and Mirat as a union of two cities, and the challenges they pose to Russian forces.
The Nord Stream incident and its implications for Ukraine and Europe.
A shout out to a Polish volunteer aiding Ukraine and the ongoing support campaign.
Transcripts
hey everyone Georgia here with Ukraine
matters Ukraine is continuing their
successful advances in the K region and
there's already reports that Ukraine is
hunting for the pontoon bridges that are
trying to be erected over the river that
is locking in Russians uh in between
Ukrainian forces but today we're going
to be focusing on something else today
we're going to be focusing on other
parts of the front line especially
because Russians are expressing a bit of
panic there been reports mostly from
Romanov and which was dismissed and I
must underscore that this is fake well
that this is not what's happening that
ukrainians are not going on a full-blown
attack on the zapara region which is in
the south of Ukraine but there is also
other channels reporting that there is
accumulation of forces of Ukraine that
is happening in the South so let's
explore this and let's understand why
this is potentially a big deal we need
to start with understanding what's the
situation on the front line and what's
the orientation of forces because
otherwise it's just like fighting there
fighting here what's actually happening
and for the area of K we know
approximate numbers that have been
shared both on the Russian media and
also in public uh about both the Russian
forces and Ukrainian forces that are
operating in the area roughly speaking
in the kers operational area where both
Ukraine ukrainians are attacking and
Russians are defending and trying to
prevent Ukrainian attacks we know that
right now the um the ratio of forces is
about 1 to two so that we know almost
completely for sure uh two in favor of
Russians so ukrainians are estimated in
this area to be anywhere between 5 and
10,000 Ukraine Ians and for Russians it
is estimated that it's anywhere between
10 and
20,000 so number of forces operating in
the area is already benefiting Russians
they've pulled a lot of forces to the
area the problem for Russians is that
these forces are poorly organized
they're just a mix Mash of different
units they have also units with very
poor morale they have some units that
are consistent of conscript so it's not
a very efficient fighting force and
because Ukraine in this area is not
fighting the attrition Warfare here they
have a little bit of a leeway if we they
operate smarter if they uh execute
faster moving Maneuvers that's why
despite having less forces in the area
they're still able to advance to attack
to capture territory and so on because
they're fighting smarter but seeing this
number displayed leads us to a very
concrete question where are the troops
because earlier in the year there were
two big events that started influencing
the war in Ukraine and the effect of
those events is supposed to be coming
online somewhere around now the first
one is the obvious one which is when us
has passed their uh security assistance
Bill and that's when kind of both us and
a lot of other allies restarted a lot of
weapons deliveries to Ukraine cran the
amount of both pledged equipment and
supposedly delivered equipment was very
large and I know now for a fact I got
some reports that a lot of those
deliveries while delayed they were still
coming in during the summer the question
number one there is where's the rest of
the equipment because amount of
equipment that we saw in the offensive
and K while a lot it wasn't overwhelming
there was a number of vehicles types of
vehicles and the mass of vehicles that
we just didn't see Point number two
where are the troops because Ukraine has
passed in May the mobilization Bill and
that new mobilization bill came into
Force somewhere around June and that
mobilization bill was such a big success
that ukrainians started going into the
drafting offices with renewed passion
ukrainians saw a lot more conscripts
being signed off and these conscripts
they have about 2 3 months training
period so now it's about the third month
that is going on right now since the
conscripts were signing on and therefore
the question is they are supposed to be
trained so where are the troops and
knowing these both things and knowing
that what is with the forces that are
operating right now in a kers region are
mostly forces that have been withdrawn
from the da CL area which was reported
by many different news sources that a
lot of the forces that are have been
using as the incursion Force were
literally the forces that were just uh
taking off of rotation from donbas so
now we have the chain of events zalinski
stating that there are new
brigades uh new equipment in large
quantities coming into Ukraine and
troops that's supposed to reinforce a
lot of these brigades and and make sure
that these brigades are battle
operational there is a massive force of
ukrainians that are not operational in K
and we know because Russia is advancing
in donbass then Ukrainian forces
Ukrainian forces are not sending these
troops to donbas at least right now
so where are they and that's the
question that everyone needs to ask I've
talked about couple of videos ago that
knowing cerski remember remember K
operation and how it started there was
first a lot of pressure that Ukrainian
Armed Forces executed on Russians that
got stuck in the Kon area but it was a
diversion where cersi utilized forces to
struck again uh in K Direction and they
were able to recapture all of this
area it is quite possible that cersi is
preparing something else what we must
understand that
we are not the only one thinking that
Russians are also are
wondering what is happening and if it
again I have no way to confirm this
right I don't have a satellite images of
uh Ukrainian Army Force concentration in
Zaria area and if I would have I would
probably never share that with you okay
not with you not with the community but
I mean publicly you get what I'm saying
we now are in a situation where there is
a certain big number of troops and
Equipment missing in Ukrainian armed
forces and it's not a crazy idea to
think that potentially potentially
ukrainians are looking for another
option to hit Russians with I would be
vary of uh ukrainians attacking into Kon
into zapara region while this would be
the most lucrative direction direction
number one for ukrainians to recapture
because that would literally uh separate
Crimea it would cut like there's a lot
of good things to be have here but it's
also one of the most Fortified Area and
it's hard to attack I believe that right
now if this is the case right now Russia
has sent in a lot of troops from the
supplemental directions but I think it
needs more time to boil ukrainians need
to exhaust the troops that are there and
Dan forc Russians to send and dedicate
more troops to be sent North it is
expected that ukrainians will strike
somewhere else then more time needs to
pass and more troops need to be sent
towards the north so far that is not
happening so we should know about it
have it at the back of our head but it's
not happening there what is happening
instead is that being reported that
Russians have pretty
much removed majority of reinforcements
from all but one offensive area we know
that Russians were trying to break here
towards the river right now a lot of
forces have been removed and while there
is still combat the intensity has
dropped down there was also discussion
remember at the may like by the 9th of
May Putin said said that he wants chif
Yar City
captured Russians are still exactly
there where they was and it's now stated
that while Russians still trying to
force their way through through but
again it is less forces than
before it is stated that while Russians
are having success here in New York
where they're going through these two
directions and ukrainians are forced to
move back towards the city Russians are
actually only now reaching this big city
of
torit and they still have not actually
reached it and it is now reported that
while Russians have advanced quite
extensively in New York there's still
some portions even of New York that
settlement that is still being
controlled by ukrainians so and the
tempo again has dropped because
reinforcements have been moved North so
the only area the only area that Russia
are advancing is the pakros area and
here in my last video I talked about the
hypothetical I talked about what would
be if Russia captures pakros and that
it's not really going to change the
nature of the war and there is people in
my community that are not trolls I want
to be very very clear that I'm
explaining this not for trolls there are
people in this community that are um not
fully
understanding how difficult or easy it
is to capture
poov so for them the hypothetical they
understood it as like oh so that means
that pakros is pretty much about to fall
and obviously the trolls picked up a lot
of that narrative and so on and they're
stating haaha fovi is about to fall
absolute dog so what we need to
understand firstly I will I showed this
before and I will show this again it's
the defensive lines the defensive lines
that ukrainians have built are on the
pro poov area here I explained that the
main fortification line is Rifka and
there is also significant defenses right
before the city and there is this city
as well where Russians are trying to
break through and I said that Rifka is
going to be a big pain in but for
Russians to overcome and so far it
doesn't seem that Russians are
overcoming this so this will take a
while but then we need to look at poov a
little bit closer because this is very
very crucial to understand the fact that
Russians with some of their
forward-facing
appendices can reach the outskirts of a
city because everything beforehand as
much as it's it pains for ukrainians to
lose territory it pains for ukrainians
to lose settlement and have to fall back
a lot of these Villages and I cannot
show you footage are just uh smaller
villages with like maybe 5 10 houses
that have been reduced to dust by
Aviation so there is nothing to defend
so the big city of
pakros and we need to look at this very
very closely it's not a city as a
standalone so this is approximate
borders of pakros but you can see also
that there is another city you can see
by the layout that is also called myrat
so actually both pakros and
myrat they are not cities on itself it's
more of
a like a union between two cities so if
Russians are to capture pakros they need
to capture both pakros and mirat to
understand the significance of this you
must go on a Google Maps here you can
click on the town's name and then you
can click to Wikipedia to find out more
information about town here you can also
switch to the satellite view to see how
exactly that area looks like with
regards to the taller buildings and so
on and pakros is a city of used to be
60,000 people with an area of
29.5 square kilometers Mirad the second
part of this um Union between two cities
used to be
46,0 23 Square kilm so when you sum
these up let's there is also some place
in between so let's say it's 30 and 23
so it's 53 square kilometers in total
these two cities to put it in a
perspective the biggest city that Russia
captured in this type of war that
they're waging right now with the
attrici Warfare slowly moving
forward is
bahmut bahmut was a city of 71 1,000 and
an area of
41 Square kilom 41 and5 Square kilm when
you sum these two up then you realize
that they are bigger than bahmut by a
lot this is a big problem for Russian
forces because the only city that they
captured was bahmut and bahmut that was
no easy capture bahmut fell only
after gruesome gruesome fighting that I
remind you led to a demolition of the
Wagner force that no one is talking
about anymore because they're all dead
and then Rebellion going against Putin
it took shitloads of time and more
importantly it was the bloodiest battle
for the Russians
period bakut
was captured only after a long time
after Russians first tried to encircle
the
city where they were later stopped from
encircling the city and then going
through the city Square by square by
square destroying every inch of this
city and it took
forever so when we're talking about
pakros mirat this Union then if the
Russians just reach the outskirts of
City they are not capturing the city
they are not going through and just
capturing the city this is not a village
this is not just the name of the map if
we are expecting that maybe they will do
the quote unquote easy way then they
still need to do a lot of job trying to
encircle both on this area and on this
area and these two cities are wider than
bmud it's less compact so they need a
lot more Force
to go around this and a lot of forces
are required in curse I remind you so
even going around is still going to be a
challenge I'll remind you that Russians
still had the goal of capturing chif
Yar and chif Yar is still standing very
very strong remember they were trying to
go around the chif Yar and they were
stop both directions so Russians then
try to okay let's go through Chas ifar
and then Ukraine said
no the point that I'm getting at and I
know I'm hammering it way too much is
that even if Russians reach pavlograd
sorry not pav
pakros it's the target to the scale that
Russians have not yet faced at all it's
bigger than bahmut it's more challenging
the area is challenging the area that
they need to try if they want to do the
circl is challenging they are so far
from even threatening the capture of
pakros that it's going to be additional
year minimum where everything could
change and I want this to be understood
very clearly by everyone that watches
the channel That reaching pakros and
capturing pakros very very different
things then there was the topic that I
just want to quickly comment on with the
AL ations that it was supposedly some
ukrainians that were instigating an
attack against nordstream and it's not
proven like the only thing that I've
heard so far is that there is like some
ukrainians that decided to blow it up
but I have seen zero connections that it
was connected to the Ukrainian
government but even if it is connected
to Ukrainian government while I agree
with Peter Powell what I want to again
Hammer home with all of you guys is that
the the Nord streams should not have
been there in the first place the Nord
stream and presence of northstream and
people that promoted northstream and
built the northstream they are the
traitors to democracy they are the
people that helped Putin build this
regime they are the people that really
sold out all of the democracy all of the
Europe to the dictatorship so when we
say it's like oh ukrainians blew up the
North streams like these things were not
supposed to be there at all at all
period Then U mik one of the viewers and
subscribers of the channel really asked
me to give a shout out to a Polish
volunteer that does great job so I will
do this uh his name is aen on the
so please follow he's doing a
great job of delivering trucks but we
are also doing our part we want to
support you Ukraine I know Jake bro
started his program but I want to run
this campaign until the end of August
because I truly believe that we can do
more I really hope we can reach the
400,000 by the end of August in any case
I love you slav ukraini trust in
Ukrainian armed forces and I see you
next
[Music]
time and all the helpers let's unite CU
you great man BL you in Myers Ukraine m
ukra m we going to stop this
Voir Plus de Vidéos Connexes
Христо Грозев про теракт в Крокусе
COME L' UCRAINA RICATTA L' EUROPA (storia di anni di bugie)
Захід розкрив деталі російського наступу
"Украина стала только сильнее! Нам бы такую "демилитаризацию!" На РосТВ заговорили о бессилии РФ
Nga - Ukraine mới nhất 29/1: Nga ồ ạt tấn công tên lửa, Ông Zelensky cảnh báo nguy cơ thế chiến 3
Zelensky trapped in Kursk
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)