Zelensky trapped in Kursk
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses the ongoing situation in Ukraine, focusing on the Ukrainian government's strategy to consolidate gains in Kherson by blowing up bridges to create a buffer zone. It examines various rationales, including forcing Russia into negotiations and diverting Russian troops from Donbas. The script also explores the potential impact of these actions on Russia's resolve, the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, and the West's diminishing capacity to supply military aid, suggesting that Ukraine's current tactics may be a strategic error.
Takeaways
- 🇺🇦 The Ukrainian government, under President Zelensky, is focusing on operations in Kherson and has blown up three bridges to consolidate gains and create a buffer zone.
- 💥 The destruction of bridges is part of a strategy to hold territory and potentially use it as leverage in negotiations with Russia, aiming to force capitulation or concessions.
- 🔄 There have been multiple explanations from Ukraine regarding their objectives in Kherson, with the latest being the creation of a buffer zone on aggressor territory.
- ❌ Russian President Putin has rejected the idea of negotiations, making the initial rationale for seizing territory for stronger negotiation positions less relevant.
- 🔄 The second rationale was to divert Russian troops from Donbass, but there is no evidence of significant troop movements from that region to Kherson.
- 🏰 The idea of a buffer zone is considered by some, including a former CIA analyst, to be unrealistic and undefendable, especially with the limited territory controlled.
- 📰 The Sunday Times article suggests that the territory held by Ukraine is indefensible and that a Russian counteroffensive is expected, potentially with returning troops.
- 🛑 Ukraine is attempting to fortify its position in Kherson by capturing important locations to prepare for an anticipated Russian counterattack.
- 🤝 Ukraine is exploring the possibility of mediated negotiations with Russia, similar to the grain deal format, to avoid direct talks.
- 💔 The Russian government has shown no interest in current mediation proposals and has emphasized that negotiations are not on the table at this time.
- 🌍 The situation in Kherson and Ukraine's actions may be influencing international relations and perceptions, with potential impacts on NATO considerations and China-Russia dynamics.
Q & A
What is the primary task of Ukraine's defense operations as stated by Zelensky's government?
-The primary task is to destroy as much Russian war potential as possible and conduct maximum counter-offensive actions, including creating a buffer zone on the aggressor's territory.
What was the initial rationale given by Mykhailo Podolyak, Zelensky's advisor, for the operation in Kherson?
-The initial rationale was to seize Russian territory to put Ukraine in a stronger position in negotiations, with the idea of a land swap that would allow Ukraine to regain much or all of its land.
Has there been any evidence of Russia diverting troops from Donbas to Kherson as a result of Ukraine's operation?
-No, there is no evidence or sign that the Russians have moved troops from Donbas to Kherson as a result of Ukraine's operation.
What does the London Times article suggest about the territory held by Ukraine in Kherson?
-The article suggests that the territory is undefendable and that Ukraine cannot hold the positions it currently occupies.
What is the current Russian stance on negotiations with Ukraine according to the script?
-The Russian stance is that they are not prepared to engage in any sort of negotiations with Ukraine at the present time, considering the issue dead.
What is the reported plan for a Russian counter-offensive in the Kherson area according to the London Times?
-The plan is for a Russian counter-offensive in the area, presumably with troops being brought back from inside Russia at the beginning or end of October.
What does the script suggest about Ukraine's strategy in Kherson after seizing the territory?
-Ukraine is trying to expand its bridgehead and capture important locations that it can then hope to fortify, in order to have some hope of holding back the expected Russian counter-offensive in the Autumn.
What is the reported rationale behind Ukraine's operation in Kherson to create a buffer zone?
-The rationale is to create an area where Ukraine can hold Russian territory and use it to force Russia to negotiate or capitulate.
What is the script's view on the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO while occupying part of Russia's territory?
-The script suggests it is inconceivable that the United States or NATO would agree to Ukraine joining while it is in occupation of any part of Russia's pre-24 February territory.
What does the script imply about the impact of Ukraine's operation in Kherson on Russia's resolve?
-The script implies that the operation will strengthen the Russian government and make it even more determined to see the conflict through, rather than weakening Moscow's resolve.
Outlines
💥 Ukraine's Military Strategy and Buffer Zone Creation
The first paragraph discusses Ukraine's military operations in an area referred to as 'kskk', which seems to be a placeholder for a specific location. The Ukrainian government, under President Zelensky, is said to be consolidating gains by blowing up three bridges to create a buffer zone. This action is part of a defensive strategy to hold territory and potentially use it as leverage in negotiations with Russia. The paragraph also mentions previous explanations for Ukraine's actions, including seizing Russian territory to strengthen their position in negotiations, which has been rejected by Russia. The speaker also notes a lack of evidence that the Ukrainian offensive has led to a diversion of Russian troops from Donbass.
🏰 Assessing the Defensibility of Ukrainian Territory
The second paragraph delves into the challenges of defending the territory that Ukraine currently holds. It references an article in the Sunday Times suggesting that the territory is indefensible and that a Russian counteroffensive is anticipated in the fall. The paragraph discusses Ukraine's efforts to strengthen its position by capturing and fortifying key locations. It also touches on the idea that Ukraine's actions are driven by the need to avoid the prestige loss of withdrawing from the territory, despite the original rationale for the operation being gone. There is mention of reports indicating that Ukraine is transferring more troops from other areas to maintain this position.
🤝 Ukraine's Pursuit of Indirect Negotiations
In the third paragraph, the discussion shifts to Ukraine's attempts to use the situation as leverage for indirect negotiations with Russia, similar to the grain deal model involving mediators. It suggests that Ukraine is trying to sell this approach to the West and possibly to BRICS nations to exert pressure on Russia. However, the paragraph indicates that Russia has rejected this format for negotiations, as stated by the Russian foreign minister, and is not interested in engaging with Ukraine under the current circumstances.
🌏 International Perspectives on the Conflict
The fourth paragraph examines the international dynamics at play, including the potential for India's Prime Minister Modi to act as a mediator. It suggests that Modi's visit to Kiev may be an attempt to provide diplomatic cover amidst pressure from the U.S. and criticism over India's alignment with Russia. The paragraph also discusses the Russian government's stance on negotiations and the likelihood that they will not be swayed by international pressure. It mentions the Czech Republic's statement on NATO membership for countries with territorial disputes and speculates on Ukraine's intentions to demonstrate its military capabilities as a reason for NATO consideration.
⚔️ The Impact of Ukraine's Actions on Russia and NATO
The final paragraph explores the potential impact of Ukraine's military actions on Russia's resolve and NATO's stance. It suggests that the operation may actually strengthen Russia's determination and that the West's ability to continue supplying Ukraine with military equipment is nearing exhaustion. The paragraph also touches on the possibility of Ukraine seeking to create a demarcation to show a victory and push for NATO membership, despite the challenges and Russia's red line on NATO expansion. It concludes with a reference to a quote by Napoleon about not interfering when an adversary is making a mistake, implying that Russia may view Ukraine's actions as a strategic error.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Ukraine
💡Zalinski government
💡Buffer zone
💡Bridges
💡Negotiate
💡Donbass
💡Kusk
💡Counteroffensive
💡NATO
💡Prestige
💡Attrition
Highlights
Ukraine's operation in Kusk is aimed at consolidating gains by blowing up bridges to create a buffer zone.
The purpose of the buffer zone is to hold Russian territory and force Russia to negotiate.
Zalinski's government's primary task is to destroy Russian war potential and conduct counter-offensive actions.
Initial claims by Ukraine's advisor, Miko Podolak, suggested seizing Russian territory for stronger negotiation positions.
The idea of a land swap between Ukraine and Russia has been rejected by Putin, halting further negotiations.
Ukraine's second strategy was to divert Russian troops from Donbass, which has not been successful.
Russian military units in Kusk have not been diverted from Donbass, contrary to Ukraine's strategy.
The new rationale for Ukraine's operation is creating an indefensible buffer zone in a forested area with small villages.
The Sunday Times article suggests that the territory held by Ukraine is undefendable.
Ukraine is attempting to expand its bridgehead and fortify positions to prepare for a Russian counter-offensive.
Zalinski cannot withdraw from the territory due to the prestige loss, leading to further investment in the area.
Ukraine is using the Kusk operation to push for negotiations based on the grain deal model, avoiding direct talks with Russia.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavro has rejected the idea of negotiations in the current format, considering it dead.
China and BRICS nations may exert influence over Russia, but Ukraine's strategy may not be effective in this regard.
Ukraine's actions may strengthen the Russian government's resolve to see the conflict through.
Analysts suggest that Ukraine's Kusk operation is a strategic blunder, worsening its situation.
Ukraine may be attempting to show NATO its capability to hold territory in Russia as a reason to join the alliance.
The U.S. and Biden Administration are unlikely to agree to Ukraine joining NATO while it occupies Russian territory.
Ukraine's equipment and vehicle losses have been extremely high, indicating a rapid depletion of resources.
Ukraine warns the West that without continued support, they will run out of equipment within 60 days.
Transcripts
Alexandra let's talk about what is going
on in Ukraine and let's focus on what is
going on in kskk and the latest
explanation from Ukraine from the
zalinski government as to what they are
doing in ksk what is going on in this
kskk operation is that they are
consolidating their gains they are
blowing up Bridges uh Three Bridges to
be uh exact
and the purpose of blowing up these
Bridges is to create uh a buffer
zone and a place where Ukraine can
actually hold territory hold Russian
territory to create an area where they
can hold Russian
territory and then use the uh the
capture of this Russian territory in
order to to force uh Russia to negotiate
capitulate something like that actually
let me read you what what zenski said it
is now our primary task in defense in
defensive operations overall to destroy
as much Russian war potential is
possible to conduct maximum counter
offensive actions this includes creating
a buffer zone on the aggressor territory
yes so this is this is the new this is
the new rationale now just to repeat a
point that I made before this is the
latest in a succession of explanations
for what the ukrainians are trying to do
in Co I the first
the first claim which is made by Miko
podolak zelinsky's um advisor was that
this was intended to seize Russian
territory that would put Ukraine in a
stronger position in negotiations there
would be a land swap Ukraine would get
much or all of its land back and in
return the Russians would be have would
be given back this territory in course
this was this was the original rationale
that podolak gave and he gave it twice
by the way in two seever his
interviews we're not hearing much about
that anymore because of course Putin has
now rejected outright any idea of
negotiations so that was one explanation
the second explanation was that they
were doing this in order to get the
Russians to divert their troops from
donbass where the Russians as we
discussed in another video are engaged
in a massive offensive they're
approaching pakros they're storming
toret there's now as we make this
program further news that they moving
hard in the kiens area and making big
inroads there as well so you know that
get the Russians to transfer their
troops from one part of the battlefronts
the part where Ukraine is losing to try
to hold off the ukrainians in kusk well
that hasn't happened there's no sign no
evidence at all that the Russians have
moved so much as a single man I want to
say this because um in
fact one of the Ukrainian officers right
one of the Russian officers I correct
that in the area of C who is uh upti Al
Alin who's a church in officer he's
actually just given us a a rundown of
what are the Russian military units that
are currently engaging the ukrainians in
cusk and the only unit that was actively
participating in the fighting in um
donbass was his own the ammat Special
Forces um and um they were taken out of
the front Lin some weeks ago apparently
and also um a marine Brigade The 810th
Marine Brigade was also uh withdrawn
from the front lines but this happened
before the Ukrainian offense even C was
launched so both of these
forces were um withdrawn back to Russia
perhaps a refit perhaps for any kind of
other reasons you can speculate about
the reasons but anyway since the kusk
operation began there is not no evidence
that the Russians have moved a single
soldier from donbass to uh um to Kos
um the other explanation the new
explanation that we're now getting is
that this is is all to create a baffer
Zone this is a ridiculous idea it is a
buffer zone controlling a few Villages
the ukrainians say 80 the Russians say
40 the Russians say the ukrainians
control 450 square kilometers of
territory the ukrainians say it's 1,000
square kilometers of territory where you
look if where if you look at where it is
this is uh forested area small dispersed
Villages many of them very very very
small very very difficult as it happens
to defend now on
Sunday there was an article which
appeared in the London in the Sunday
Times the London newspaper the Sunday
Times which by the way I think a lot of
people have been quoting and
quoting it as evidence that the British
had you know planed and prepared this
operation in ksk region that may be true
but actually I don't think in fact I
don't see that this is what that article
says but the article says something else
which people are overlooking which is
that this territory is undefendable that
what Ukraine holds cannot be defended
the British also assess and this is also
in this
article that there is going to be a
Russian counter offensive in the this
area presumably with troops who are
being brought back um brought to this
area from inside Russia it at the
beginning of at the beginning or end of
October and the point is that a lot of
Russian troops were sent on Furlow
during the summer they're going to start
rejoining their regiments in September
October 200,000 of them supposedly so
that they will be coming back onto the
attack in October this is what the
British think that's in the London times
now Ukraine cannot hold these positions
so what it is trying to
do is expand its Bridge head take under
control certain um Villages which it can
then
fortify um in order to try to create a
more powerful position on Russian
territory which it can actually defend
because what it controls even according
to the British is basically undefendable
there was a very interesting discussion
of all of this in rova which is a
Russian newspaper that they need to sort
of Harden this bubble by getting some
important places and this is what these
attacks on these bridges are all about
and what the um Talk about another
Russian a Ukrainian push sorry into
another area of C region is all about
it's expanding the bridge head capturing
certain important locations which the
ukrainians can then hope to fortify so
when the Russian big counter blow comes
in the Autumn the ukrainians can have
some hope of holding it back why would
the ukrainians even want to do that it's
not a baffa Zone it's not um preventing
the Russians launching missile and
bombing strikes all across Ukraine the
Russians can bomb uh Sumi which is the
big Ukrainian City near nearest nearest
to this place it's not affecting Russian
military operations at all the point is
that having seized this territory
zalinski cannot face the enormous
Prestige loss of withdrawing from it and
so since he cannot withdraw from it he
has to spend more equipment more people
he has to invest further trying to
enlarge it in order to try to make it a
bit more defendable and to try to secure
it in the meantime there are further
reports that where whil the Russians are
not withdrawing troops from Donas the
ukrainians are continuing to do so and I
read a report this morning admittedly it
was from a Russian Source but there's
report this report said that the
ukrainians have just transferred even
more troops veteran troops from the
pakros direction where they're having a
massive crisis to kusk because that is
now becoming the priority Place
everything else is being sacrificed to
trying to maintain this bridge head um
on Russian territ
even though the rationale for it is
gone Politico had an article uh the
other day where they talked about how uh
Ukraine is is using the uh the K
operation in order to push uh a type of
negotiation which was based on on the
grain deal the the Black Sea model with
with the grain deal that that was
negotiated a year and a half ago which
they consider to be a huge success and
and basically what saying is that in
this type of
format they won't have to negotiate
directly with Russia they can avoid
negotiating face Toof face with Russia
as in the grain deal Ukraine can can
negotiate with a mediator with the UN
and then Russia can negotiate with
another party and the same mediator and
then they can come to to some sort of an
agreement uh with with B based on
alinsky's uh peace peace plan the the
10-point plan
and
um and the KK operation is meant as as
The Leverage to to convince Russia to to
agree to this type of
format and to get the West to agree to
this type of format actually so is is
that something that's that's possible I
mean is is this something that you see
Ukraine trying to to sell the West on
and and maybe even sell bricks on so
then they can put pressure on Russia
because I think if there's one that we
if there's one weak point that we've
identified with Russia in the entire
Ukraine um
conflict or one pressure point it's that
China and the bricks they can actually
exert a lot of influence over Russia and
they can get Putin to to slow things
down to change his plans um
I I think this is clear now that yeah
that there is a type of China bricks
leverage that has been working or that
Ukraine has been working towards their
their advantage and and it looks like
the Russian government has
been has been um accommodating of of
China of bricks yes to their
disadvantage I would say absolutely I I
I I I would agree with that I I think
that's all been shot to Pieces actually
and and um lavro who was the Russian
foreign minister just has given an
interview in which he's been discussing
this very thing and he said that there's
not going to be any talks at all and in
fact he discussed these these very ideas
about using uh mediating parties to try
to get negotiations going in that kind
of format he linked it to the late to
three working parties that were created
at the time of the um you remember the
Swiss peace conference which none of the
important countries attended he said
Russia completely rejects that entire
format it is not prepared to engage the
ukrainians in any sort of negotiations
at the present time this whole issue as
far as the Russians are concerned is
dead and I think the Russians have gone
out of their way to make it clear to
their friends to to to China especially
whose prime minister by the way is in
Moscow as we speak the Chinese Prime
Minister just this is a this is a trip
that was organized a long time ago it's
about economic matters about securing
Supply chains and that kind of thing and
the Chinese Prime Minister is also going
to Minsk by the way for the same after
he's finished in Moscow but I think the
Russians will be making it very clear to
all of their friends look we tried all
we can we bent over backwards to be as
accommodating with these people as you
wanted us to be we've now reached the
point of exhaus
we're not prepared to negotiate any
further and um and it has to be this way
because these people in Ukraine are not
people that you can negotiate with you
wanted us to talk with them they've been
talking about peace over the last few
weeks they're clearly not sincere about
it and the moment talk of Peace started
to emerge well they pulled off this
thing in K and I think that's I think
that's going to I don't think it's going
to change I think that is the Russian
position I think their allies understand
it do they mo Mod's going to Kiev and
there are there's talk that what Modi is
g to be doing in Kiev I don't know if
this is true is that he's also going to
be trying to mediate some sort of of a
ceasefire he's going to be delivering
messages on behalf of both parties
acting as a mediator I mean I just
wonder if if the brics Nations uh have
have have come to the realization that
they are being strung along by Ukraine
and by the collective West I'm I'm not
so confident that that they've realized
that yeah I think the Chinese have and I
mean to be very clear China is a far
more important player in this game than
India is um India has some influence and
Modi is somebody who has a good strong
personal relationship with Putin but um
ultimately the country that matters for
the the Russians is China it is not
India now um Modi is going to go to KF
the reason he's going to KF in my
opinion is is is is really very very
simple he's under an awful lot of
pressure from the Americans there's been
the coup in Bangladesh there have been
uh um arrests or there have been um
charges that he's been involved in
having seek activists in Canada
assassinated there's been criticism on
of him there was a lot of criticism of
him during the election the recent
election in India and all that criticism
swelled to huge volume when directly
after his election he went to Moscow and
had a meeting with Putin and K all kinds
of agreements with the Russians at that
time so I think what Modi is scrambling
for is some degree of diplomatic cover
um The Americans the ukrainians all
sorts of people said that India is
aligning itself with Russia against
Ukraine he's been
trying right from the start of this
conflict to avoid that the appearance of
that so he's decided that he has to
balance this by going to Kiev um he
notice that he's not only going to Kiev
he's also going to Poland as well he's
going to these two countries he'll no
doubt be talking about peace proposals
and things of this kind but I don't
think that the Russians are interested
and I don't think they're going to take
any mediation proposals in the Indians
seriously if they even so much as
appear how does the the dynamic of
Ukraine uh knocking out these Bridges
and maybe holding on to to this sliver
of territory inside of Russia how is
that going to to affect uh Putin and the
administration well there's been a
there's been a there's been a really
good article about about this actually
by uh a former top CIA analyst fact the
director of Russian Affairs at the CIA
George B and his point is he going to
strengthen the Russian government and
make it even more determined to see this
thing through and I think that's exactly
what it's going to do I don't think it's
going to weaken uh Moscow it moscow's
resolve it's going to harden it the
Russians I don't think have ever been
Keen about negotiation s anyway and I
think at the moment they are probably
saying to themselves this Co operation
actually plays to our advantage because
it takes some of the pressure off on us
to engage the ukrainians in negotiations
so I I think that is probably the major
uh the major mood in Moscow there's been
two very interesting articles in the US
media one is the one irresponsible
statecraft by by George B another one is
an article in the in the hill and both
of them essentially make the same point
that the KE that the Kos operation is a
mistake is a strategic blunder and um
far from helping Ukraine it's actually
making Ukraine's problems worse and I
know that there is even a view that it
actually suits Putin for the ukrainians
to be in K at the moment the ukrainians
are by all accounts including accounts
in Forbes you know Forbes Magazine David
ax we all probably know him he's
enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine he's
admitting that Ukrainian armed vehicle
losses have been extremely high um in uh
course so the ukrainians committing
attrition on themselves and some of
their best men and reserves even as the
Russians advance in other places um
there there's a famous quote from
Napoleon never um interfere with your
adversary when he is making a mistake
probably that is what Putin is saying to
himself at the
moment uh pavl of the Czech Republic he
he said
that that uh Ukraine can enter NATO even
if it has some sort of of conflict or
territorial dispute given there is a
clear uh demarcation a clear a clear
boundary where where the dispute is is
frozen or where it kind of
ends I wonder if the if one of the the
goals now for for krk ziny saying that
our goal now is we're going to blow up
Bridges we're going to hold a piece of
territory in krk I I wonder if if for
zaleski this is this is about showing
the the collective West showing NATO
look we uh we're gonna lose donbas we've
lost dbas that's obvious so we're going
to cut our losses in
dbas um we we can we can hold territory
in Russia we are capable of of some sort
of of an operation into Russian
territory so it's time for NATO to to
consolidate whatever whatever is left of
Ukraine and then to to push Ukraine into
NATO and and just keep this thing Frozen
and and Russia's occupied with KK
they've taken uh donbas but at least we
can we can now say okay we've got
everything west of the deeper
I think that I I I think that um it is
inconceivable that the United even the
United States even the Biden
Administration would agree to Ukraine
joining NATO whilst it is in occupation
of any part of Russia's pre-24 territory
just just saying I think that's not
going to happen so in Far
negotiation I I understand that but then
that comes back to the question of the
Russians have to agree to this and the
Russians have made it absolutely clear
that they're not going to agree with
this that um for them Ukraine's entry
into nato in any form is an absolute red
line and this incursion in K is going to
make that even stronger and from Putin's
point of view
again pavel's comment actually is
helpful because he could come back to
his friends in Beijing and Delhi and he
could say look these people not only are
they not serious they actually uh about
negotiations you could see that their
ultimate objective has not changed for
us this was never initially a war about
territory it was a war about security
about our security the security of our
people in dbas but also the security of
our western border they still want to
expand NATO Eastward
which is what this whole War ultimately
was all about and I think that's what
Putin is going to say and pavl has just
given him a whole text confirming as
much not the sharpest knife in the draw
pavl no he's not actually I mean we saw
that with the we saw that with the
artillery
shells Affair which is uh um something
you notice that nobody talks about
anymore yeah they've memory hold the
whole artillery thing yeah yes they
don't seem to care that much about the
the whole weapons issue anymore which is
why I think no it it seems like they're
trying to figure out a way to to create
a demarcation to create a an exit with
some sort of Ukrainian Victory they
don't talk about the artillery the shell
production none of that stuff if you if
you go back to that article in the
Sunday Times which as I said has
attracted a lot of discussion in but but
which I think people are reading wrongly
actually I don't think it's about the
coast Corporation very much at all in
the end it was all about the British
trying to persuade their allies to
author to to to allow the ukrainians to
use storm Shadows to attack Russian air
bases this is what it's Pro principally
about but again if you read it carefully
you can see that there is there again a
grudging understanding that the ability
of the West to continue to provide
Ukraine with military equipment is all
but exhausted and by the way again this
morning I saw a report comes of
Ukrainian sources so you might not want
to take it completely seriously but they
they they're now saying again that
unless they continue to get more help
from the West they will run out of
pretty much everything within 60 days
now I you know probably don't want to
take that too seriously but you could
see that they are having problems and
they um
flashing warning signs to their friends
in the west that things are not going
well at all and that they're losing
equipment very fast which of course they
accelerated the rate of their equipment
loss with this course Corporation um and
in the meantime things are not going as
they wanted them to go and if they
continue like this well everything will
start to collapse in um two months
time all right we will end the video
there the dls.com we are on Rumble
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