5 MINUTES AGO! Jim Rickards Shared A Terrifying Message...

Summary

The speaker discusses investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of true diversification beyond just owning different stocks. Real diversification involves holding minimally correlated assets like gold, cash, and real estate. They recommend 10% in gold, 30% in cash, and focus on sectors like energy, oil, and uranium. The speaker also highlights the cyclical nature of markets, referencing historical patterns in gold prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies. The main takeaway is to prepare for market volatility and potential economic recession, while maintaining flexibility through cash holdings for future opportunities.

Takeaways

• 💼 Diversification is key to a strong investment portfolio, but owning 50 stocks in 10 sectors isn't true diversification if they're all stocks. You need different asset classes that aren't highly correlated.
• 💰 Cash is important and should be a significant part of a portfolio. While it doesn’t generate much return, it reduces volatility and provides safety in uncertain times, such as deflationary periods or market crashes.
• ⚖️ True diversification includes minimally correlated asset classes like gold, cash, and other investments. Gold, for example, should be around 10% of a portfolio.
• 📉 Cash provides optionality—when markets crash, cash holders have the advantage of being able to invest in assets at lower prices.
• 💡 The speaker recommends holding a large portion of cash (about 30%) to protect against volatile market swings and economic deflation.
• 🏦 The speaker mentions that renewable energy sources, like solar and wind, aren’t scalable or reliable enough to meet global energy needs, so oil, natural gas, uranium, and hydro power remain crucial.
• 💸 Inflation and deflation are both risks. While inflation is currently high, future deflation could emerge if the Federal Reserve tightens too much, causing a recession.
• 📉 The Federal Reserve’s monetary policies are often reactive rather than proactive, and tightening may lead to severe recession or market crashes.
• 📊 The speaker highlights the cyclical nature of gold markets and suggests that gold is in its third great bull market, with significant potential gains over the next few years.
• 📈 The price of gold could rise significantly, with a potential value of $15,000 per ounce by 2025 if past market cycles are a guide, according to historical analysis.

Q & A

What does the speaker mean by diversification?

The speaker defines diversification as having a mix of different asset classes that are minimally correlated. This means that owning stocks across various sectors does not count as true diversification because stocks as an asset class tend to move together during market extremes, either up or down.

Why does the speaker recommend only a 10% allocation to gold?

The speaker recommends a 10% allocation to gold because it provides insurance for the rest of the portfolio without overexposing it to a single asset class. If the strategy is wrong, it won't harm the overall portfolio, but if it's right, it can provide substantial returns.

Why does the speaker suggest holding a significant portion of cash?

The speaker advocates holding a significant portion of cash, around 30%, because it provides optionality, reduces overall portfolio volatility, and performs well during deflation. Cash allows investors to take advantage of market crashes by having the liquidity to buy assets when others cannot.

How does the speaker explain the difference between cost-push and demand-pull inflation?

The speaker explains that demand-pull inflation occurs when consumers accelerate their purchases in anticipation of rising prices, while cost-push inflation arises from increased costs of production, such as supply chain disruptions and higher energy costs. Currently, the inflation we see is primarily cost-push.

Why does the speaker say there is no substitute for oil, natural gas, and uranium?

The speaker argues that renewables like solar and wind are not scalable or reliable enough to meet global energy demands, leaving oil, natural gas, and uranium as essential resources for energy generation.

What is the primary advantage of holding cash during times of market crashes?

Holding cash allows investors to take advantage of market crashes by buying assets at low prices when others are forced to sell. This optionality makes cash a powerful asset, especially during deflation or crises.

Why does the speaker believe the Fed's approach to fighting inflation may cause a recession?

The speaker suggests that the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes and tightening policies may slow the economy too much, leading to a recession. The Fed faces a dilemma of either controlling inflation or triggering a recession by over-tightening.

What is the speaker’s view on renewable energy sources like solar and wind?

The speaker acknowledges owning a solar module field but notes that renewables like solar and wind are intermittent and not scalable for large-scale energy needs. They cannot replace the baseline power provided by fossil fuels and uranium.

Why does the speaker emphasize the importance of watching the Fed’s actions closely?

The speaker highlights that the Fed's policies can signal economic directions, such as whether they will continue tightening or start loosening to avoid a severe recession. These signals provide critical information for investors to adjust their strategies accordingly.

What historical context does the speaker provide for gold's performance?

The speaker outlines three major bull markets in gold since 1971. The current bull market, which started in December 2015, is similar to past cycles where gold saw significant gains after periods of retracement. The speaker predicts gold could reach $15,000 by 2025 based on historical patterns.

Outlines

00:00

💼 Diversification and Cash Allocation in Investments

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of diversification in investments. Many investors misunderstand diversification, thinking that owning multiple stocks in various sectors is sufficient. However, true diversification involves spreading investments across minimally correlated asset classes, such as gold, cash, and stocks. The speaker suggests a 10% allocation to gold and highlights the importance of holding cash (30%) despite its low returns. Cash helps reduce portfolio volatility, offers protection in deflation, and provides optionality during market downturns. The speaker also discusses the role of inflation and deflation, urging caution with over-reliance on leverage and emphasizing the value of cash as an investment tool.

05:00

📉 The Future of Energy and Opportunities in the Oil Sector

Here, the focus shifts to the energy sector, where the speaker critiques the limitations of renewable energy sources like solar and wind for large-scale applications. He highlights the growing gap in global energy demand, stating that renewables alone cannot meet this demand. Oil, natural gas, and uranium remain indispensable. The speaker encourages investing in oil companies despite negative sentiment from climate activists, as the world still heavily depends on fossil fuels. The section concludes with a diversification strategy involving stocks, private equity, residential real estate, farmland, and gold, addressing concerns over future inflation and recession risks.

10:02

🔄 Fed Policies and Economic Cycles

This paragraph explores the Federal Reserve’s economic policies, particularly interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. The speaker outlines the Fed’s past attempts to normalize interest rates and reduce its balance sheet, which often led to stock market crashes and recessions. He references the Fed’s actions between 2013 and 2020, including rate hikes, quantitative easing, and balance sheet adjustments, explaining how these policies failed to achieve their objectives. The speaker predicts similar outcomes if the Fed continues down the same path, warning of potential economic turmoil if they fail to adapt to current market conditions.

15:04

📉 The Fed’s Playbook and the Inevitable Recession

The speaker argues that the Fed is repeating the same strategies that led to failure in previous years. He predicts that attempting to normalize interest rates and balance sheets will lead to a recession and a stock market crash. The discussion revolves around whether the Fed will stay the course or pivot to prevent economic damage, which would prolong inflation. The speaker emphasizes that understanding the Fed’s actions can provide insight into future market movements, cautioning that inflation could spiral out of control if the Fed opts to avoid triggering a recession by cutting rates prematurely.

📈 Gold Market Cycles and Future Projections

The focus here is on the gold market and its historical performance. The speaker outlines the three major bull markets in gold since 1971 and highlights their significant gains. He describes gold's cyclical nature, including periods of retracement, and provides an analysis predicting gold's value to soar in the coming years. By comparing past cycles, he forecasts that gold could reach $15,000 by 2025. Despite its volatility, the speaker views gold as a long-term investment with substantial upside potential and encourages investors to buy gold, especially as prices continue to rise.

🪙 Gold as a Long-term Investment Opportunity

In this final section, the speaker reassures long-term gold investors, explaining that the metal's fluctuations are part of its normal cycle. He encourages buying during dips, noting that even if the price drops, gold will rise significantly over time. The speaker addresses common criticisms that he's promoting gold for personal gain, clarifying that he has no direct financial interest in selling gold. Instead, he recommends it based on extensive analysis and his firm belief in its long-term growth. He emphasizes that those who haven’t invested in gold yet haven't missed their opportunity, as the metal is expected to multiply in value.

Keywords

💡Diversification

Diversification refers to spreading investments across various asset classes to reduce risk. In the script, the speaker emphasizes that true diversification isn't just owning different stocks across sectors but having assets in uncorrelated asset classes like stocks, gold, cash, and real estate. This reduces portfolio volatility and protects against market-wide downturns.

💡Conditional Correlation

Conditional correlation occurs when asset values, which may appear uncorrelated during normal market conditions, begin to move in the same direction during crises or panics. The speaker explains that even though owning multiple stocks seems diversified, in times of market panic, they often all decline together, revealing their conditional correlation.

💡Asset Classes

Asset classes are groups of investments that behave similarly in the market. The speaker distinguishes between different asset classes, such as stocks, gold, cash, and real estate, and explains that real diversification involves holding slices of minimally correlated asset classes. This reduces portfolio risk compared to investing only in stocks.

💡Cash

Cash, as discussed in the script, is a critical asset class within a diversified portfolio. The speaker advocates for holding a significant portion in cash (around 30%) because it offers optionality, reduces volatility, and performs well during deflation or economic crises, allowing investors to take advantage of buying opportunities.

💡Gold

Gold is presented as a key part of a diversified portfolio, with the speaker recommending a 10% allocation. Gold acts as a hedge against inflation and financial instability, and although volatile, it can provide significant returns during periods of economic uncertainty. The speaker uses historical examples to show gold's performance in various market cycles.

💡Deflation

Deflation refers to a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The speaker warns that deflation could happen if the Federal Reserve over-tightens monetary policy, leading to a recession. In such a scenario, cash becomes valuable, as prices fall and purchasing power increases.

💡Optionality

Optionality is the flexibility to make decisions or take advantage of opportunities in the future. The speaker explains that cash provides optionality, as it allows investors to buy assets at a discount during market downturns, similar to having a call option on every asset class when prices fall dramatically.

💡Cost-push Inflation

Cost-push inflation occurs when production costs, such as raw materials and wages, rise, leading to higher prices for goods and services. The speaker highlights how rising energy costs, driven by supply chain issues and high oil prices, contribute to this form of inflation, which the Federal Reserve cannot directly address through interest rate hikes.

💡Supply Chain

The supply chain is the network of production and logistics that delivers goods and services. The speaker references ongoing supply chain disruptions, particularly in energy, as a key driver of cost-push inflation. These disruptions have contributed to higher fuel prices, which in turn reduce consumer discretionary spending.

💡Energy Sector

The energy sector includes companies involved in the production and distribution of oil, gas, and renewable energy. The speaker advocates for investing in energy stocks, especially in oil and natural gas, because of the high demand and insufficient renewable energy capacity to replace them. Despite criticism from climate activists, energy remains a critical and profitable investment.

Highlights

Diversification doesn't mean holding 50 different stocks across sectors but rather having minimally correlated asset classes.

Having 10% of a portfolio in gold acts as insurance; it's a good hedge without overexposing yourself to risk.

Cash should make up a significant portion of a portfolio (30%) despite low interest rates because it provides optionality in volatile markets.

Cash reduces overall portfolio volatility, especially when paired with more volatile assets like stocks or gold.

Deflation remains a potential threat, particularly if the Federal Reserve tightens too much, leading to a recession.

Cost-push inflation, driven by supply chain and energy issues, is different from demand-pull inflation and requires different policy responses.

Rising gas prices act like a tax on consumers, reducing discretionary spending and potentially slowing the economy.

Cash provides optionality during market downturns, allowing investors to 'go shopping' when assets are crashing.

Renewable energy like solar and wind is not scalable enough to meet global energy demands alone; oil, natural gas, and uranium are still essential.

Despite climate concerns, investing in oil companies remains a strong strategy due to the continued necessity of fossil fuels.

Farmland and residential real estate are attractive assets for diversification and future returns.

The Federal Reserve's attempt to normalize rates and reduce its balance sheet failed in the past and may likely fail again without triggering a recession.

Gold markets follow cyclical trends, and we are in the third great bull market for gold, with significant upside still possible.

Gold's price fluctuations, while volatile, are a part of its long-term growth, and even small drops present buying opportunities.

Based on past trends, gold could reach $15,000 by 2025, offering significant returns for long-term investors.

Transcripts

I would increase my allocation to cash

I'll stick with cash but let me kind of

put that in context the most powerful

investment tool we have is

diversification problem is people don't

understand what diversification means so

I run into people all the time they say

well I'm completely Diversified I own 50

different stocks in 10 different sectors

you know semiconductors consumer non

durables minerals you Etc and I say

you're not Diversified you may own 50

stocks in 10 sectors but you have one

asset class stocks which are subject to

conditional correlation in calm markets

they idiosyncratic but in panics they

all go down together or in bubbles they

all go up together so you're not

Diversified so what is diversification

diversification is having slices of

asset classes that are minimally

correlated there not probably not zero

but as close to zero as you can get so

what would that be you'd have a slice of

gold but I recommend 10% and people have

some strong views on gold and I've

written a lot about it but people are

surprised to hear me say 10% Like Jim

why isn't a 50% or 100% if you believe

all this well I do believe it I wouldn't

say it if I didn't but you don't want to

be 100% in anything you don't want to be

50% in anything 10% is fine if I'm wrong

you won't get hurt and if I'm right

you're going to make so much money that

it'll actually kind of be the insurance

on the rest of your portfolio but that

leaves 90% so I would have a large slug

in cash maybe 30% and people say well

wait a second bank's paying me 25 basis

points you know stock market's going up

why I want to be in cash is horrible a

couple things number one the stock

market might not always go up cash is

the opposite of Leverage so leverage

increases the volatility of the rest of

the portfolio you'll get much bigger

returns but you'll have much bigger

losses if you have a slice of cash and

say you've got a volatile asset over

here which are stocks another volatile

asset over here Gold's fairly volatile

if you got that volatility and you have

cash it will reduce the overall

volatility so you can sleep better at

night cash is a great asset in deflation

and talking about inflation which is

here you got to deal with that but don't

rule out deflation if we go into a

recession because the FED over Titans or

you know the thing about the inflation

just a quick side it comes in two

flavors there's cost push and demand

pull demand pull is when individuals are

worried about inflation and they start

accelerating purchases like hey better

go buy that washing machine right now

because the price is going up or better

go buy that house right now because the

price is going up that's demand pull

cost P comes from the supply side not

the demand side and that's what we're

seeing because of what we talked about

supply chain energy cost the FED can't

drill for oil you know raising interest

rates doesn't get you more oil or

natural gas so the FED can't do anything

about it except kill the economy yeah

and that'll cool it off but when you pay

uh put gas in my car I don't just read

about this stuff you know it used to be

$45 now it's about $75 multiply that by

200 million cars Across America what

happens is it reduces your discretion

income if you're paying another 30 bucks

at the pump twice a week then you're not

going to go out to dinner Friday night

you're not going to you know take a a

vacation whatever it may be so that

depresses all those other areas so there

is this recursive function so don't rule

out deflation down the road not right

away but you know maybe next year so

cash here's the biggest value of cash it

gives you optionality people don't

understand this what if I said to you

hey I'll sell you a call option at the

market call option on every asset class

in the world he go yeah sounds kind of

valuable you know well that's what cash

is when things are crashing you're the

one who can go shopping and nobody's

better at this than Warren Buffet he's

got his cash level vir halfways at an

alltime high so there's a place for that

you can have some stocks but I would

look at the energy sector I actually

built and I own the largest

non-commercial solar module field in New

England and I run my house off it

produce about 7.5 um kilowatt hours so I

know a little bit about it and uh what I

know is it doesn't work at night it

doesn't work in snow it doesn't work in

rain it doesn't work in really cloudy

days by the way you don't run your house

off with solar modules you run your

house off of batteries yeah then the

modules charge the battery so you watch

the battery level that's how you manage

it so it works fine but if you think you

can run cities with that forget it so

it's just not practical at that scale

even if you thought it was and it isn't

that's very clear But Here Comes you

know wind turbines and SE I'm not

against it like I say I own one but

they're not scalable they're

intermittent and they don't give you the

Baseline power you need to run a modern

power grip meanwhile here's Global

demand okay so the Gap the gap's getting

bigger it's not getting smaller

Renewables whatever the pros and cons

are not closing the Gap the gap's

getting bigger there is no substitute

for oil and natural gas and uranium you

got to put uranium in the mix and hydro

if you live in quec that's great a lot

of hydro but not so much in the desert

and I've spoken to you know without

mentioning names I would say you can go

no higher in terms of who knows a board

members of the five biggest oil

companies in the world who said yeah he

said we talk about that but we we can't

say it publicly because we'll be you

know uh Chained and dragged through the

streets but those are just the facts so

therefore if you have an oil sector

that's been bashed by the climate

alarmist but you can't do without it

which is true buy some oil companies you

know so there's your stock portfolio

private Equity Venture real estate uh

not commercial but residential yes and

you know Farmland that's one of the

hottest ass categories and gold so

that's diversification and that's the

kind of portfolio you want the kind of

seasoned to taste so the question is

will the FED go down that path do what

they have to do do the only thing they

can do to subdue inflation at the cost

of a very severe recession and something

like a stock market crash or will they

see that coming they'll be the last to

know we we'll all see it before they do

but they'll be the last know it's

because they rely on flood models and

they're kind of in their own

economic forecasting bubble and they're

very defective ways of thinking about

the economy and they're very much a

creature of inertia there a whole lot of

reasons why the FED is not Nimble it's

kind of quite the opposite but they'll

see it eventually probably when it's too

late and will they block at that point

and stop rate hikes and maybe even

reduce rates that could save us from the

recession but that will just amplify the

inflation so rather than say which one's

going to happen I prefer to lay out

those two paths and then just watch it

very carefully but more to the point

we've seen this movie before this is a

replay and I think it's on um like you

hit the remote control for double or

triple speed it's going to happen faster

but this is a replay of everything that

happened from 2013 to 2019 and then to

2020 which was I'll just go through it

quickly so 2013 May banki says we're

going to taper asset purchases that's

money printing quantitative vising

whatever you want to call it the market

you know tanks bonds go down everyone's

like oh it's over but finally in

November 2013 they said okay the taper

begins they were still printing money

but at a slower rate in that matters

that went on until late 2014 the taper

was over they stopped buying new assets

they said okay here come the interest

rate hikes except they didn't G for

another year it wasn't until December

2015 that then Janet Yellen finally

raised rates and then another year for

the second rate increase it was December

2016 so it was really really slow took

two and a half years but they got to to

raid hikes but then Here Comes J pal and

then like Cloud boom boom boom 25 basis

point hikes every meeting and all the

Fed was trying to do was to get back to

normal they were trying to get interest

rates to maybe two and a quarter two and

a half get the balance sheet down to you

know something like 2.5 trillion they

never specified it that would have been

a reasonable level okay now interest

rates are kind of normal two and a half

balance sheets down around 2 and a half

trillion we're back to normal we finally

got through the global financial crisis

of 2008 we undid all that stuff well

what happened from October 1st 2018 to

December 24th 2018 the stock market

dropped 20% the Christmas Eve Massacre

stock market went down 3% in one day but

the Fed was tightening into the weakness

as they always do and the last interest

rate hike it was uh December 16th or 17

within a day or two but mid December

2018 they were still hiking and raised

rates and that was the last draw and

then the market just tanked and finally

J pal got that message first week of

January 2019 he says okay that's it

we're going to be patient use the word

patient it's one of these code words you

have to get the code book out and see

what it means but patient means we won't

raise rates again without giving you

Advanced warnings so you can get out of

your carry trades or whatever and then

he went further said huh looks like we

got a cut rates and they did and then by

early 2020 here comes the pandemic and

then they took rates all the way back to

zero and then they started QE I don't

know 67 call what you want they took the

balance sheet to 7.5 trillion doll after

getting it down to three and a half

trillion so look at that whole sequence

from 2013 to early 2020 including the

pandemic what happened they tapered the

asset purchases they raised rates they

sank the stock market then they said

okay no more rate hikes then they cut

rates and then they started QE and by

April 2020 where were we zero rates back

down to zero and the balance sheet was 7

and A5 trillion after getting down to

about three and a half trillion so that

was a big circle they ended up back

where they started from but the point

being they failed to normalize they

failed to get rates where they wanted

they failed to get the balance sheet

where they wanted they did sync the

stock market okay by the way I don't

have a crystal ball the FED told us this

I mean that's the thing about the F they

may be wrong but they're transparently

wrong so they tell you what mistakes

they're going to make in EV event so

that's the FED forecasting is actually

fairly straightforward because you just

have to believe them they're going to

announce a reduction in the balance

sheet whether they actually started 100

billion a month reduction in asset

purchases so that's QT quantitative

tightening in other words they're

running the same Playbook they tried to

run or they started to run in 2013 2014

they failed the last time why do they

think they're going to be any more

successful this time why do they think

they can get out of this and the answer

is they cannot without a recession they

can normalize rates in the balance sheet

and they can stop inflation but not

without causing recession and not

without causing a stock market crash so

the big question for the next year is

will the FED do that and they may or

will they B again at which point you

might rescue the market but the

inflation is just going to go wild

that's the debate but the thing is about

framing it that way you've got two paths

and we'll get signals along the way we

won't be the last to know the FED will

but we won't you'll be able to see this

coming it's going up it's going up a lot

and let me just back that up a little

bit because that's easy to say I don't

say things like that without a lot of

analysis there are three different ways

to think about it one is just some

technical analysis this is the third

great bull market in gold in history and

uh when I say history I'm only going

back to 1971 because prior to

1971 gold was money so you didn't have a

bull market or bare Market it was fixed

to the dollar people who buy the table

and say give me a gold standard I like

well be careful what you wish for cuz in

a gold standard you're not going to make

any money on gold because it's fixed

it's pegged to the dollar if you want to

make money on gold you would actually be

against a gold standard because they

keep going up the currency and the gold

goes up but we had a bull market from

1971 to 1980 and gold went up

27% then we had a bare Market from 1980

to 1999 and gold went down from $ 800 $

$250 and do the math that's 60 or 70%

then we had the second grade bull market

from 1999 to 2011 and gold went up

670 then we had a bare market so funny

how these things go in Cycles from 2011

to 2015 but you can call the bottom it

was December 16th

2015 Gold was $1,050 an ounce I'm

talking US dollar that was the bottom

and and I saw it at the time and I I

called it at the time based on a

conversation I have with Jim Rogers

who's the greatest Commodities Trader in

history and we were down in the

Dominican Republic At Cost compo during

the bare Market I said Jim I you think

about gold he goes well I own it but I'm

not buying more at the moment I'm

waiting he said I'm not selling it but

I'm not buying more I'm waiting and he

said to me something that just hit me

right between the eyes he said gold is

going to the moon but no commodity goes

to the moon without a 50% retracement

along the way there comes a time when it

drops 50% and then there's like the

second liftoff and then it goes to the

move now take the bottom in 1999 was

$250 an ounce the top was $1900 an ounce

in August 2011 so that's uh

$1,750 half of that so 50% retracement

would be down a25 so, 1900 minus 825 put

you at 1075 well Bingo 1050 that's close

enough for government work as we say

when I saw 1050 I talked to Jim Rogers

about this earlier when I saw 1050 I

said okay there's your 50% retracement

using 250 is you have to have a base

using 250 as your Baseline up to 1900

take that gap down 50% boom 1075 we were

1050 I said that's the low now it's uh

getting close and actually on an

intraday basis I think it just kind of

kissed the all-time high it was like

right there so there's the full

retracement of the bare mark Market but

this bull market the third grade bull

market started December 2015 we are up

almost 90% but bear in mind the last two

bull markets remember what I said

2,700 and 670 per. so 85% is great but

when you get into like 600 700

800% or

2,000% you're talking about

$115,000 by

2025 so if we just did the average of

the two prior bull market I'm not even

talking about the higher of the two take

the two bull markets average the

duration and the gain and then apply it

to December

2015 you get to the exact number is

$155,000 by 2025 $115,000 nowc by 2025

to get to from 2,000 to 15,000 you got

to go 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 you can

make a ton of money so that's where it's

going now could it go down tomorrow sure

I mean the goal's volatile I don't get

too hung up on it because I'm kind of a

Buy and Hold person I don't get too

euphoric when it goes up but I don't get

depressed when it goes down fact when it

goes down I like to see it go up for our

listeners and our readers but personally

I don't mind when it goes down because

you can buy more at a cheaper price

because I know it's going up I know

where it's going so the answer is again

sixth grade math is usually sufficient

when you get to higher levels a fixed

dollar increase is a smaller percentage

increase so people go oh it went from

1,800 to 1900 it went to 2, 21002 and

that's a big deal good for all of this

but those $100 increments get to be more

and more frequent and more and more

common because they start looking like 1

half of 1% 1 half of 1% is not a big

deal in the market so you're going to

see that on a daily basis so my advice

to people of course is buy gold but I

said that at 1100 1200 1300 said it all

along and people don't buy it people

also accuse me they say well Jim you're

just talking your position you know

you're just trying to sell gold I'm not

a dealer I don't make any money if you

buy gold good for you but I'm not in the

business I'm a writer I'm an analyst but

uh I'm not a gold dealer I'm actually

one of the few analysts apart from

yourself and a few others who are not

gold dealers but I think I think that

gives you more credibility because

you're not selling gold you're

understanding gold but for anyone who

hasn't bought it yet course people

denial is a powerful thing they'll say

well I missed the boat now it's up to

the side's going to go down you haven't

missed the boat I mean again 80 90% is a

good run but this is going to go

multiples of that